diff --git a/app.py b/app.py
index 43eda8a5..dc0e112c 100755
--- a/app.py
+++ b/app.py
@@ -4485,6 +4485,225 @@ class PostLike(db.Model):
     __table_args__ = (db.UniqueConstraint('user_id', 'post_id'),)
 
 
+# ===========================
+# 预测市场系统模型
+# ===========================
+
+class UserCreditAccount(db.Model):
+    """用户积分账户"""
+    __tablename__ = 'user_credit_account'
+
+    id = db.Column(db.Integer, primary_key=True)
+    user_id = db.Column(db.Integer, db.ForeignKey('user.id'), nullable=False, unique=True)
+
+    # 积分余额
+    balance = db.Column(db.Float, default=10000.0, nullable=False)  # 初始10000积分
+    frozen_balance = db.Column(db.Float, default=0.0, nullable=False)  # 冻结积分
+    total_earned = db.Column(db.Float, default=0.0, nullable=False)  # 累计获得
+    total_spent = db.Column(db.Float, default=0.0, nullable=False)  # 累计消费
+
+    # 时间
+    created_at = db.Column(db.DateTime, default=beijing_now, nullable=False)
+    updated_at = db.Column(db.DateTime, default=beijing_now, onupdate=beijing_now)
+    last_daily_bonus_at = db.Column(db.DateTime)  # 最后一次领取每日奖励时间
+
+    # 关系
+    user = db.relationship('User', backref=db.backref('credit_account', uselist=False))
+
+    def __repr__(self):
+        return f'<UserCreditAccount user_id={self.user_id} balance={self.balance}>'
+
+
+class PredictionTopic(db.Model):
+    """预测话题"""
+    __tablename__ = 'prediction_topic'
+
+    id = db.Column(db.Integer, primary_key=True)
+    creator_id = db.Column(db.Integer, db.ForeignKey('user.id'), nullable=False)
+
+    # 基本信息
+    title = db.Column(db.String(200), nullable=False)
+    description = db.Column(db.Text)
+    category = db.Column(db.String(50), default='stock')  # stock/event/market
+
+    # 市场数据
+    yes_total_shares = db.Column(db.Integer, default=0, nullable=False)  # YES方总份额
+    no_total_shares = db.Column(db.Integer, default=0, nullable=False)  # NO方总份额
+    yes_price = db.Column(db.Float, default=500.0, nullable=False)  # YES方价格（0-1000）
+    no_price = db.Column(db.Float, default=500.0, nullable=False)  # NO方价格（0-1000）
+
+    # 奖池
+    total_pool = db.Column(db.Float, default=0.0, nullable=False)  # 总奖池（2%交易税累积）
+
+    # 领主信息
+    yes_lord_id = db.Column(db.Integer, db.ForeignKey('user.id'))  # YES方领主
+    no_lord_id = db.Column(db.Integer, db.ForeignKey('user.id'))  # NO方领主
+
+    # 状态
+    status = db.Column(db.String(20), default='active', nullable=False)  # active/settled/cancelled
+    result = db.Column(db.String(10))  # yes/no/draw（结算结果）
+
+    # 时间
+    deadline = db.Column(db.DateTime, nullable=False)  # 截止时间
+    settled_at = db.Column(db.DateTime)  # 结算时间
+    created_at = db.Column(db.DateTime, default=beijing_now, nullable=False)
+    updated_at = db.Column(db.DateTime, default=beijing_now, onupdate=beijing_now)
+
+    # 统计
+    views_count = db.Column(db.Integer, default=0)
+    comments_count = db.Column(db.Integer, default=0)
+    participants_count = db.Column(db.Integer, default=0)
+
+    # 关系
+    creator = db.relationship('User', foreign_keys=[creator_id], backref='created_topics')
+    yes_lord = db.relationship('User', foreign_keys=[yes_lord_id], backref='yes_lord_topics')
+    no_lord = db.relationship('User', foreign_keys=[no_lord_id], backref='no_lord_topics')
+    positions = db.relationship('PredictionPosition', backref='topic', lazy='dynamic')
+    transactions = db.relationship('PredictionTransaction', backref='topic', lazy='dynamic')
+    comments = db.relationship('TopicComment', backref='topic', lazy='dynamic')
+
+    def __repr__(self):
+        return f'<PredictionTopic id={self.id} title={self.title}>'
+
+
+class PredictionPosition(db.Model):
+    """用户持仓"""
+    __tablename__ = 'prediction_position'
+
+    id = db.Column(db.Integer, primary_key=True)
+    user_id = db.Column(db.Integer, db.ForeignKey('user.id'), nullable=False)
+    topic_id = db.Column(db.Integer, db.ForeignKey('prediction_topic.id'), nullable=False)
+
+    # 持仓信息
+    direction = db.Column(db.String(3), nullable=False)  # yes/no
+    shares = db.Column(db.Integer, default=0, nullable=False)  # 持有份额
+    avg_cost = db.Column(db.Float, default=0.0, nullable=False)  # 平均成本
+    total_invested = db.Column(db.Float, default=0.0, nullable=False)  # 总投入
+
+    # 时间
+    created_at = db.Column(db.DateTime, default=beijing_now, nullable=False)
+    updated_at = db.Column(db.DateTime, default=beijing_now, onupdate=beijing_now)
+
+    # 关系
+    user = db.relationship('User', backref='prediction_positions')
+
+    # 唯一约束：每个用户在每个话题的每个方向只能有一个持仓
+    __table_args__ = (db.UniqueConstraint('user_id', 'topic_id', 'direction'),)
+
+    def __repr__(self):
+        return f'<PredictionPosition user_id={self.user_id} topic_id={self.topic_id} direction={self.direction} shares={self.shares}>'
+
+
+class PredictionTransaction(db.Model):
+    """预测交易记录"""
+    __tablename__ = 'prediction_transaction'
+
+    id = db.Column(db.Integer, primary_key=True)
+    user_id = db.Column(db.Integer, db.ForeignKey('user.id'), nullable=False)
+    topic_id = db.Column(db.Integer, db.ForeignKey('prediction_topic.id'), nullable=False)
+
+    # 交易信息
+    transaction_type = db.Column(db.String(10), nullable=False)  # buy/sell
+    direction = db.Column(db.String(3), nullable=False)  # yes/no
+    shares = db.Column(db.Integer, nullable=False)  # 份额数量
+    price = db.Column(db.Float, nullable=False)  # 成交价格
+
+    # 费用
+    amount = db.Column(db.Float, nullable=False)  # 交易金额
+    tax = db.Column(db.Float, default=0.0, nullable=False)  # 手续费（2%）
+    total_cost = db.Column(db.Float, nullable=False)  # 总成本（amount + tax）
+
+    # 时间
+    created_at = db.Column(db.DateTime, default=beijing_now, nullable=False)
+
+    # 关系
+    user = db.relationship('User', backref='prediction_transactions')
+
+    def __repr__(self):
+        return f'<PredictionTransaction id={self.id} type={self.transaction_type} shares={self.shares}>'
+
+
+class CreditTransaction(db.Model):
+    """积分交易记录"""
+    __tablename__ = 'credit_transaction'
+
+    id = db.Column(db.Integer, primary_key=True)
+    user_id = db.Column(db.Integer, db.ForeignKey('user.id'), nullable=False)
+
+    # 交易信息
+    transaction_type = db.Column(db.String(30), nullable=False)  # prediction_buy/prediction_sell/daily_bonus/create_topic/settle_win
+    amount = db.Column(db.Float, nullable=False)  # 金额（正数=增加，负数=减少）
+    balance_after = db.Column(db.Float, nullable=False)  # 交易后余额
+
+    # 关联
+    related_topic_id = db.Column(db.Integer, db.ForeignKey('prediction_topic.id'))  # 相关话题
+    related_transaction_id = db.Column(db.Integer, db.ForeignKey('prediction_transaction.id'))  # 相关预测交易
+
+    # 描述
+    description = db.Column(db.String(200))  # 交易描述
+
+    # 时间
+    created_at = db.Column(db.DateTime, default=beijing_now, nullable=False)
+
+    # 关系
+    user = db.relationship('User', backref='credit_transactions')
+    related_topic = db.relationship('PredictionTopic', backref='credit_transactions')
+
+    def __repr__(self):
+        return f'<CreditTransaction user_id={self.user_id} type={self.transaction_type} amount={self.amount}>'
+
+
+class TopicComment(db.Model):
+    """话题评论"""
+    __tablename__ = 'topic_comment'
+
+    id = db.Column(db.Integer, primary_key=True)
+    topic_id = db.Column(db.Integer, db.ForeignKey('prediction_topic.id'), nullable=False)
+    user_id = db.Column(db.Integer, db.ForeignKey('user.id'), nullable=False)
+
+    # 内容
+    content = db.Column(db.Text, nullable=False)
+    parent_id = db.Column(db.Integer, db.ForeignKey('topic_comment.id'))  # 父评论ID（回复功能）
+
+    # 状态
+    is_pinned = db.Column(db.Boolean, default=False, nullable=False)  # 是否置顶（领主特权）
+    status = db.Column(db.String(20), default='active')  # active/hidden/deleted
+
+    # 统计
+    likes_count = db.Column(db.Integer, default=0, nullable=False)
+
+    # 时间
+    created_at = db.Column(db.DateTime, default=beijing_now, nullable=False)
+    updated_at = db.Column(db.DateTime, default=beijing_now, onupdate=beijing_now)
+
+    # 关系
+    user = db.relationship('User', backref='topic_comments')
+    replies = db.relationship('TopicComment', backref=db.backref('parent', remote_side=[id]), lazy='dynamic')
+    likes = db.relationship('TopicCommentLike', backref='comment', lazy='dynamic')
+
+    def __repr__(self):
+        return f'<TopicComment id={self.id} topic_id={self.topic_id} user_id={self.user_id}>'
+
+
+class TopicCommentLike(db.Model):
+    """话题评论点赞"""
+    __tablename__ = 'topic_comment_like'
+
+    id = db.Column(db.Integer, primary_key=True)
+    comment_id = db.Column(db.Integer, db.ForeignKey('topic_comment.id'), nullable=False)
+    user_id = db.Column(db.Integer, db.ForeignKey('user.id'), nullable=False)
+    created_at = db.Column(db.DateTime, default=beijing_now, nullable=False)
+
+    # 关系
+    user = db.relationship('User', backref='topic_comment_likes')
+
+    # 唯一约束
+    __table_args__ = (db.UniqueConstraint('comment_id', 'user_id'),)
+
+    def __repr__(self):
+        return f'<TopicCommentLike comment_id={self.comment_id} user_id={self.user_id}>'
+
+
 class Event(db.Model):
     """事件模型"""
     id = db.Column(db.Integer, primary_key=True)
@@ -12999,6 +13218,844 @@ def reset_simulation_account():
         return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': str(e)}), 500
 
 
+# ===========================
+# 预测市场 API 路由
+# 请将此文件内容插入到 app.py 的 `if __name__ == '__main__':` 之前
+# ===========================
+
+# --- 积分系统 API ---
+
+@app.route('/api/prediction/credit/account', methods=['GET'])
+@login_required
+def get_credit_account():
+    """获取用户积分账户"""
+    try:
+        account = UserCreditAccount.query.filter_by(user_id=current_user.id).first()
+
+        # 如果账户不存在，自动创建
+        if not account:
+            account = UserCreditAccount(user_id=current_user.id)
+            db.session.add(account)
+            db.session.commit()
+
+        return jsonify({
+            'success': True,
+            'data': {
+                'balance': float(account.balance),
+                'frozen_balance': float(account.frozen_balance),
+                'available_balance': float(account.balance - account.frozen_balance),
+                'total_earned': float(account.total_earned),
+                'total_spent': float(account.total_spent),
+                'last_daily_bonus_at': account.last_daily_bonus_at.isoformat() if account.last_daily_bonus_at else None
+            }
+        })
+
+    except Exception as e:
+        return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': str(e)}), 500
+
+
+@app.route('/api/prediction/credit/daily-bonus', methods=['POST'])
+@login_required
+def claim_daily_bonus():
+    """领取每日奖励（100积分）"""
+    try:
+        account = UserCreditAccount.query.filter_by(user_id=current_user.id).first()
+
+        if not account:
+            account = UserCreditAccount(user_id=current_user.id)
+            db.session.add(account)
+
+        # 检查是否已领取今日奖励
+        today = beijing_now().date()
+        if account.last_daily_bonus_at and account.last_daily_bonus_at.date() == today:
+            return jsonify({
+                'success': False,
+                'error': '今日奖励已领取'
+            }), 400
+
+        # 发放奖励
+        bonus_amount = 100.0
+        account.balance += bonus_amount
+        account.total_earned += bonus_amount
+        account.last_daily_bonus_at = beijing_now()
+
+        # 记录交易
+        transaction = CreditTransaction(
+            user_id=current_user.id,
+            transaction_type='daily_bonus',
+            amount=bonus_amount,
+            balance_after=account.balance,
+            description='每日登录奖励'
+        )
+        db.session.add(transaction)
+        db.session.commit()
+
+        return jsonify({
+            'success': True,
+            'message': f'领取成功，获得 {bonus_amount} 积分',
+            'data': {
+                'bonus_amount': bonus_amount,
+                'new_balance': float(account.balance)
+            }
+        })
+
+    except Exception as e:
+        db.session.rollback()
+        return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': str(e)}), 500
+
+
+# --- 预测话题 API ---
+
+@app.route('/api/prediction/topics', methods=['POST'])
+@login_required
+def create_prediction_topic():
+    """创建预测话题（消耗100积分）"""
+    try:
+        data = request.get_json()
+        title = data.get('title', '').strip()
+        description = data.get('description', '').strip()
+        category = data.get('category', 'stock')
+        deadline_str = data.get('deadline')
+
+        # 验证参数
+        if not title or len(title) < 5:
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '标题至少5个字符'}), 400
+
+        if not deadline_str:
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '请设置截止时间'}), 400
+
+        # 解析截止时间
+        deadline = datetime.fromisoformat(deadline_str.replace('Z', '+00:00'))
+        if deadline <= beijing_now():
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '截止时间必须在未来'}), 400
+
+        # 检查积分账户
+        account = UserCreditAccount.query.filter_by(user_id=current_user.id).first()
+        if not account or account.balance < 100:
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '积分不足（需要100积分）'}), 400
+
+        # 扣除创建费用
+        create_cost = 100.0
+        account.balance -= create_cost
+        account.total_spent += create_cost
+
+        # 创建话题
+        topic = PredictionTopic(
+            creator_id=current_user.id,
+            title=title,
+            description=description,
+            category=category,
+            deadline=deadline
+        )
+        db.session.add(topic)
+
+        # 记录积分交易
+        transaction = CreditTransaction(
+            user_id=current_user.id,
+            transaction_type='create_topic',
+            amount=-create_cost,
+            balance_after=account.balance,
+            description=f'创建预测话题：{title}'
+        )
+        db.session.add(transaction)
+        db.session.commit()
+
+        return jsonify({
+            'success': True,
+            'message': '话题创建成功',
+            'data': {
+                'topic_id': topic.id,
+                'title': topic.title,
+                'new_balance': float(account.balance)
+            }
+        })
+
+    except Exception as e:
+        db.session.rollback()
+        return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': str(e)}), 500
+
+
+@app.route('/api/prediction/topics', methods=['GET'])
+def get_prediction_topics():
+    """获取预测话题列表"""
+    try:
+        status = request.args.get('status', 'active')
+        category = request.args.get('category')
+        sort_by = request.args.get('sort_by', 'created_at')
+        page = request.args.get('page', 1, type=int)
+        per_page = request.args.get('per_page', 20, type=int)
+
+        # 构建查询
+        query = PredictionTopic.query
+
+        if status:
+            query = query.filter_by(status=status)
+        if category:
+            query = query.filter_by(category=category)
+
+        # 排序
+        if sort_by == 'hot':
+            query = query.order_by(desc(PredictionTopic.views_count))
+        elif sort_by == 'participants':
+            query = query.order_by(desc(PredictionTopic.participants_count))
+        else:
+            query = query.order_by(desc(PredictionTopic.created_at))
+
+        # 分页
+        pagination = query.paginate(page=page, per_page=per_page, error_out=False)
+        topics = pagination.items
+
+        # 格式化返回数据
+        topics_data = []
+        for topic in topics:
+            # 计算市场倾向
+            total_shares = topic.yes_total_shares + topic.no_total_shares
+            yes_prob = (topic.yes_total_shares / total_shares * 100) if total_shares > 0 else 50.0
+
+            topics_data.append({
+                'id': topic.id,
+                'title': topic.title,
+                'description': topic.description,
+                'category': topic.category,
+                'status': topic.status,
+                'yes_price': float(topic.yes_price),
+                'no_price': float(topic.no_price),
+                'yes_probability': round(yes_prob, 1),
+                'total_pool': float(topic.total_pool),
+                'yes_lord': {
+                    'id': topic.yes_lord.id,
+                    'username': topic.yes_lord.username,
+                    'nickname': topic.yes_lord.nickname or topic.yes_lord.username,
+                    'avatar_url': topic.yes_lord.avatar_url
+                } if topic.yes_lord else None,
+                'no_lord': {
+                    'id': topic.no_lord.id,
+                    'username': topic.no_lord.username,
+                    'nickname': topic.no_lord.nickname or topic.no_lord.username,
+                    'avatar_url': topic.no_lord.avatar_url
+                } if topic.no_lord else None,
+                'deadline': topic.deadline.isoformat(),
+                'created_at': topic.created_at.isoformat(),
+                'views_count': topic.views_count,
+                'comments_count': topic.comments_count,
+                'participants_count': topic.participants_count,
+                'creator': {
+                    'id': topic.creator.id,
+                    'username': topic.creator.username,
+                    'nickname': topic.creator.nickname or topic.creator.username
+                }
+            })
+
+        return jsonify({
+            'success': True,
+            'data': topics_data,
+            'pagination': {
+                'page': page,
+                'per_page': per_page,
+                'total': pagination.total,
+                'pages': pagination.pages,
+                'has_next': pagination.has_next,
+                'has_prev': pagination.has_prev
+            }
+        })
+
+    except Exception as e:
+        return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': str(e)}), 500
+
+
+@app.route('/api/prediction/topics/<int:topic_id>', methods=['GET'])
+def get_prediction_topic_detail(topic_id):
+    """获取预测话题详情"""
+    try:
+        topic = PredictionTopic.query.get_or_404(topic_id)
+
+        # 增加浏览量
+        topic.views_count += 1
+        db.session.commit()
+
+        # 计算市场倾向
+        total_shares = topic.yes_total_shares + topic.no_total_shares
+        yes_prob = (topic.yes_total_shares / total_shares * 100) if total_shares > 0 else 50.0
+
+        # 获取 TOP 5 持仓（YES 和 NO 各5个）
+        yes_top_positions = PredictionPosition.query.filter_by(
+            topic_id=topic_id,
+            direction='yes'
+        ).order_by(desc(PredictionPosition.shares)).limit(5).all()
+
+        no_top_positions = PredictionPosition.query.filter_by(
+            topic_id=topic_id,
+            direction='no'
+        ).order_by(desc(PredictionPosition.shares)).limit(5).all()
+
+        def format_position(position):
+            return {
+                'user': {
+                    'id': position.user.id,
+                    'username': position.user.username,
+                    'nickname': position.user.nickname or position.user.username,
+                    'avatar_url': position.user.avatar_url
+                },
+                'shares': position.shares,
+                'avg_cost': float(position.avg_cost),
+                'total_invested': float(position.total_invested),
+                'is_lord': (topic.yes_lord_id == position.user_id and position.direction == 'yes') or
+                           (topic.no_lord_id == position.user_id and position.direction == 'no')
+            }
+
+        return jsonify({
+            'success': True,
+            'data': {
+                'id': topic.id,
+                'title': topic.title,
+                'description': topic.description,
+                'category': topic.category,
+                'status': topic.status,
+                'result': topic.result,
+                'yes_price': float(topic.yes_price),
+                'no_price': float(topic.no_price),
+                'yes_total_shares': topic.yes_total_shares,
+                'no_total_shares': topic.no_total_shares,
+                'yes_probability': round(yes_prob, 1),
+                'no_probability': round(100 - yes_prob, 1),
+                'total_pool': float(topic.total_pool),
+                'yes_lord': {
+                    'id': topic.yes_lord.id,
+                    'username': topic.yes_lord.username,
+                    'nickname': topic.yes_lord.nickname or topic.yes_lord.username,
+                    'avatar_url': topic.yes_lord.avatar_url
+                } if topic.yes_lord else None,
+                'no_lord': {
+                    'id': topic.no_lord.id,
+                    'username': topic.no_lord.username,
+                    'nickname': topic.no_lord.nickname or topic.no_lord.username,
+                    'avatar_url': topic.no_lord.avatar_url
+                } if topic.no_lord else None,
+                'yes_top_positions': [format_position(p) for p in yes_top_positions],
+                'no_top_positions': [format_position(p) for p in no_top_positions],
+                'deadline': topic.deadline.isoformat(),
+                'settled_at': topic.settled_at.isoformat() if topic.settled_at else None,
+                'created_at': topic.created_at.isoformat(),
+                'views_count': topic.views_count,
+                'comments_count': topic.comments_count,
+                'participants_count': topic.participants_count,
+                'creator': {
+                    'id': topic.creator.id,
+                    'username': topic.creator.username,
+                    'nickname': topic.creator.nickname or topic.creator.username,
+                    'avatar_url': topic.creator.avatar_url
+                }
+            }
+        })
+
+    except Exception as e:
+        return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': str(e)}), 500
+
+
+@app.route('/api/prediction/topics/<int:topic_id>/settle', methods=['POST'])
+@login_required
+def settle_prediction_topic(topic_id):
+    """结算预测话题（仅创建者可操作）"""
+    try:
+        topic = PredictionTopic.query.get_or_404(topic_id)
+
+        # 验证权限
+        if topic.creator_id != current_user.id:
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '只有创建者可以结算'}), 403
+
+        # 验证状态
+        if topic.status != 'active':
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '话题已结算或已取消'}), 400
+
+        # 验证截止时间
+        if beijing_now() < topic.deadline:
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '未到截止时间'}), 400
+
+        # 获取结算结果
+        data = request.get_json()
+        result = data.get('result')  # 'yes', 'no', 'draw'
+
+        if result not in ['yes', 'no', 'draw']:
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '无效的结算结果'}), 400
+
+        # 更新话题状态
+        topic.status = 'settled'
+        topic.result = result
+        topic.settled_at = beijing_now()
+
+        # 获取获胜方的所有持仓
+        if result == 'draw':
+            # 平局：所有人按投入比例分配奖池
+            all_positions = PredictionPosition.query.filter_by(topic_id=topic_id).all()
+            total_invested = sum(p.total_invested for p in all_positions)
+
+            for position in all_positions:
+                if total_invested > 0:
+                    share_ratio = position.total_invested / total_invested
+                    prize = topic.total_pool * share_ratio
+
+                    # 发放奖金
+                    account = UserCreditAccount.query.filter_by(user_id=position.user_id).first()
+                    if account:
+                        account.balance += prize
+                        account.total_earned += prize
+
+                        # 记录交易
+                        transaction = CreditTransaction(
+                            user_id=position.user_id,
+                            transaction_type='settle_win',
+                            amount=prize,
+                            balance_after=account.balance,
+                            related_topic_id=topic_id,
+                            description=f'预测平局，获得奖池分红：{topic.title}'
+                        )
+                        db.session.add(transaction)
+
+        else:
+            # YES 或 NO 获胜
+            winning_direction = result
+            winning_positions = PredictionPosition.query.filter_by(
+                topic_id=topic_id,
+                direction=winning_direction
+            ).all()
+
+            if winning_positions:
+                total_winning_shares = sum(p.shares for p in winning_positions)
+
+                for position in winning_positions:
+                    # 按份额比例分配奖池
+                    share_ratio = position.shares / total_winning_shares
+                    prize = topic.total_pool * share_ratio
+
+                    # 发放奖金
+                    account = UserCreditAccount.query.filter_by(user_id=position.user_id).first()
+                    if account:
+                        account.balance += prize
+                        account.total_earned += prize
+
+                        # 记录交易
+                        transaction = CreditTransaction(
+                            user_id=position.user_id,
+                            transaction_type='settle_win',
+                            amount=prize,
+                            balance_after=account.balance,
+                            related_topic_id=topic_id,
+                            description=f'预测正确，获得奖金：{topic.title}'
+                        )
+                        db.session.add(transaction)
+
+        db.session.commit()
+
+        return jsonify({
+            'success': True,
+            'message': f'话题已结算，结果为：{result}',
+            'data': {
+                'topic_id': topic.id,
+                'result': result,
+                'total_pool': float(topic.total_pool),
+                'settled_at': topic.settled_at.isoformat()
+            }
+        })
+
+    except Exception as e:
+        db.session.rollback()
+        return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': str(e)}), 500
+
+
+# --- 交易 API ---
+
+@app.route('/api/prediction/trade/buy', methods=['POST'])
+@login_required
+def buy_prediction_shares():
+    """买入预测份额"""
+    try:
+        data = request.get_json()
+        topic_id = data.get('topic_id')
+        direction = data.get('direction')  # 'yes' or 'no'
+        shares = data.get('shares', 0)
+
+        # 验证参数
+        if not topic_id or direction not in ['yes', 'no'] or shares <= 0:
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '参数错误'}), 400
+
+        if shares > 1000:
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '单次最多买入1000份额'}), 400
+
+        # 获取话题
+        topic = PredictionTopic.query.get_or_404(topic_id)
+
+        if topic.status != 'active':
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '话题已结算或已取消'}), 400
+
+        if beijing_now() >= topic.deadline:
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '话题已截止'}), 400
+
+        # 获取积分账户
+        account = UserCreditAccount.query.filter_by(user_id=current_user.id).first()
+        if not account:
+            account = UserCreditAccount(user_id=current_user.id)
+            db.session.add(account)
+            db.session.flush()
+
+        # 计算价格
+        current_price = topic.yes_price if direction == 'yes' else topic.no_price
+
+        # 简化的AMM定价：price = (对应方份额 / 总份额) * 1000
+        total_shares = topic.yes_total_shares + topic.no_total_shares
+        if total_shares > 0:
+            if direction == 'yes':
+                current_price = (topic.yes_total_shares / total_shares) * 1000
+            else:
+                current_price = (topic.no_total_shares / total_shares) * 1000
+        else:
+            current_price = 500.0  # 初始价格
+
+        # 买入后价格会上涨，使用平均价格
+        after_total = total_shares + shares
+        if direction == 'yes':
+            after_yes_shares = topic.yes_total_shares + shares
+            after_price = (after_yes_shares / after_total) * 1000
+        else:
+            after_no_shares = topic.no_total_shares + shares
+            after_price = (after_no_shares / after_total) * 1000
+
+        avg_price = (current_price + after_price) / 2
+
+        # 计算费用
+        amount = avg_price * shares
+        tax = amount * 0.02  # 2% 手续费
+        total_cost = amount + tax
+
+        # 检查余额
+        if account.balance < total_cost:
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '积分不足'}), 400
+
+        # 扣除费用
+        account.balance -= total_cost
+        account.total_spent += total_cost
+
+        # 更新话题数据
+        if direction == 'yes':
+            topic.yes_total_shares += shares
+            topic.yes_price = after_price
+        else:
+            topic.no_total_shares += shares
+            topic.no_price = after_price
+
+        topic.total_pool += tax  # 手续费进入奖池
+
+        # 更新或创建持仓
+        position = PredictionPosition.query.filter_by(
+            user_id=current_user.id,
+            topic_id=topic_id,
+            direction=direction
+        ).first()
+
+        if position:
+            # 更新平均成本
+            old_cost = position.avg_cost * position.shares
+            new_cost = avg_price * shares
+            position.shares += shares
+            position.avg_cost = (old_cost + new_cost) / position.shares
+            position.total_invested += total_cost
+        else:
+            position = PredictionPosition(
+                user_id=current_user.id,
+                topic_id=topic_id,
+                direction=direction,
+                shares=shares,
+                avg_cost=avg_price,
+                total_invested=total_cost
+            )
+            db.session.add(position)
+            topic.participants_count += 1
+
+        # 更新领主
+        if direction == 'yes':
+            # 找到YES方持仓最多的用户
+            top_yes = db.session.query(PredictionPosition).filter_by(
+                topic_id=topic_id,
+                direction='yes'
+            ).order_by(desc(PredictionPosition.shares)).first()
+            if top_yes:
+                topic.yes_lord_id = top_yes.user_id
+        else:
+            # 找到NO方持仓最多的用户
+            top_no = db.session.query(PredictionPosition).filter_by(
+                topic_id=topic_id,
+                direction='no'
+            ).order_by(desc(PredictionPosition.shares)).first()
+            if top_no:
+                topic.no_lord_id = top_no.user_id
+
+        # 记录交易
+        transaction = PredictionTransaction(
+            user_id=current_user.id,
+            topic_id=topic_id,
+            transaction_type='buy',
+            direction=direction,
+            shares=shares,
+            price=avg_price,
+            amount=amount,
+            tax=tax,
+            total_cost=total_cost
+        )
+        db.session.add(transaction)
+
+        # 记录积分交易
+        credit_transaction = CreditTransaction(
+            user_id=current_user.id,
+            transaction_type='prediction_buy',
+            amount=-total_cost,
+            balance_after=account.balance,
+            related_topic_id=topic_id,
+            related_transaction_id=transaction.id,
+            description=f'买入 {direction.upper()} 份额：{topic.title}'
+        )
+        db.session.add(credit_transaction)
+
+        db.session.commit()
+
+        return jsonify({
+            'success': True,
+            'message': '买入成功',
+            'data': {
+                'transaction_id': transaction.id,
+                'shares': shares,
+                'price': round(avg_price, 2),
+                'total_cost': round(total_cost, 2),
+                'tax': round(tax, 2),
+                'new_balance': float(account.balance),
+                'new_position': {
+                    'shares': position.shares,
+                    'avg_cost': float(position.avg_cost)
+                }
+            }
+        })
+
+    except Exception as e:
+        db.session.rollback()
+        return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': str(e)}), 500
+
+
+@app.route('/api/prediction/positions', methods=['GET'])
+@login_required
+def get_user_positions():
+    """获取用户的所有持仓"""
+    try:
+        positions = PredictionPosition.query.filter_by(user_id=current_user.id).all()
+
+        positions_data = []
+        for position in positions:
+            topic = position.topic
+
+            # 计算当前市值（如果话题还在进行中）
+            current_value = 0
+            profit = 0
+            profit_rate = 0
+
+            if topic.status == 'active':
+                current_price = topic.yes_price if position.direction == 'yes' else topic.no_price
+                current_value = current_price * position.shares
+                profit = current_value - position.total_invested
+                profit_rate = (profit / position.total_invested * 100) if position.total_invested > 0 else 0
+
+            positions_data.append({
+                'id': position.id,
+                'topic': {
+                    'id': topic.id,
+                    'title': topic.title,
+                    'status': topic.status,
+                    'result': topic.result,
+                    'deadline': topic.deadline.isoformat()
+                },
+                'direction': position.direction,
+                'shares': position.shares,
+                'avg_cost': float(position.avg_cost),
+                'total_invested': float(position.total_invested),
+                'current_value': round(current_value, 2),
+                'profit': round(profit, 2),
+                'profit_rate': round(profit_rate, 2),
+                'created_at': position.created_at.isoformat(),
+                'is_lord': (topic.yes_lord_id == current_user.id and position.direction == 'yes') or
+                           (topic.no_lord_id == current_user.id and position.direction == 'no')
+            })
+
+        return jsonify({
+            'success': True,
+            'data': positions_data,
+            'count': len(positions_data)
+        })
+
+    except Exception as e:
+        return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': str(e)}), 500
+
+
+# --- 评论 API ---
+
+@app.route('/api/prediction/topics/<int:topic_id>/comments', methods=['POST'])
+@login_required
+def create_topic_comment(topic_id):
+    """发表话题评论"""
+    try:
+        topic = PredictionTopic.query.get_or_404(topic_id)
+
+        data = request.get_json()
+        content = data.get('content', '').strip()
+        parent_id = data.get('parent_id')
+
+        if not content or len(content) < 2:
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '评论内容至少2个字符'}), 400
+
+        # 创建评论
+        comment = TopicComment(
+            topic_id=topic_id,
+            user_id=current_user.id,
+            content=content,
+            parent_id=parent_id
+        )
+
+        # 如果是领主评论，自动置顶
+        is_lord = (topic.yes_lord_id == current_user.id) or (topic.no_lord_id == current_user.id)
+        if is_lord:
+            comment.is_pinned = True
+
+        db.session.add(comment)
+
+        # 更新话题评论数
+        topic.comments_count += 1
+
+        db.session.commit()
+
+        return jsonify({
+            'success': True,
+            'message': '评论成功',
+            'data': {
+                'comment_id': comment.id,
+                'content': comment.content,
+                'is_pinned': comment.is_pinned,
+                'created_at': comment.created_at.isoformat()
+            }
+        })
+
+    except Exception as e:
+        db.session.rollback()
+        return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': str(e)}), 500
+
+
+@app.route('/api/prediction/topics/<int:topic_id>/comments', methods=['GET'])
+def get_topic_comments(topic_id):
+    """获取话题评论列表"""
+    try:
+        topic = PredictionTopic.query.get_or_404(topic_id)
+
+        page = request.args.get('page', 1, type=int)
+        per_page = request.args.get('per_page', 20, type=int)
+
+        # 置顶评论在前，然后按时间倒序
+        query = TopicComment.query.filter_by(
+            topic_id=topic_id,
+            status='active',
+            parent_id=None  # 只获取顶级评论
+        ).order_by(
+            desc(TopicComment.is_pinned),
+            desc(TopicComment.created_at)
+        )
+
+        pagination = query.paginate(page=page, per_page=per_page, error_out=False)
+        comments = pagination.items
+
+        def format_comment(comment):
+            # 获取回复
+            replies = TopicComment.query.filter_by(
+                parent_id=comment.id,
+                status='active'
+            ).order_by(TopicComment.created_at).limit(5).all()
+
+            return {
+                'id': comment.id,
+                'content': comment.content,
+                'is_pinned': comment.is_pinned,
+                'likes_count': comment.likes_count,
+                'created_at': comment.created_at.isoformat(),
+                'user': {
+                    'id': comment.user.id,
+                    'username': comment.user.username,
+                    'nickname': comment.user.nickname or comment.user.username,
+                    'avatar_url': comment.user.avatar_url
+                },
+                'is_lord': (topic.yes_lord_id == comment.user_id) or (topic.no_lord_id == comment.user_id),
+                'replies': [{
+                    'id': reply.id,
+                    'content': reply.content,
+                    'created_at': reply.created_at.isoformat(),
+                    'user': {
+                        'id': reply.user.id,
+                        'username': reply.user.username,
+                        'nickname': reply.user.nickname or reply.user.username,
+                        'avatar_url': reply.user.avatar_url
+                    }
+                } for reply in replies]
+            }
+
+        comments_data = [format_comment(comment) for comment in comments]
+
+        return jsonify({
+            'success': True,
+            'data': comments_data,
+            'pagination': {
+                'page': page,
+                'per_page': per_page,
+                'total': pagination.total,
+                'pages': pagination.pages
+            }
+        })
+
+    except Exception as e:
+        return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': str(e)}), 500
+
+
+@app.route('/api/prediction/comments/<int:comment_id>/like', methods=['POST'])
+@login_required
+def like_topic_comment(comment_id):
+    """点赞/取消点赞评论"""
+    try:
+        comment = TopicComment.query.get_or_404(comment_id)
+
+        # 检查是否已点赞
+        existing_like = TopicCommentLike.query.filter_by(
+            comment_id=comment_id,
+            user_id=current_user.id
+        ).first()
+
+        if existing_like:
+            # 取消点赞
+            db.session.delete(existing_like)
+            comment.likes_count = max(0, comment.likes_count - 1)
+            action = 'unliked'
+        else:
+            # 点赞
+            like = TopicCommentLike(
+                comment_id=comment_id,
+                user_id=current_user.id
+            )
+            db.session.add(like)
+            comment.likes_count += 1
+            action = 'liked'
+
+        db.session.commit()
+
+        return jsonify({
+            'success': True,
+            'action': action,
+            'likes_count': comment.likes_count
+        })
+
+    except Exception as e:
+        db.session.rollback()
+        return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': str(e)}), 500
+
+
 if __name__ == '__main__':
     # 创建数据库表
     with app.app_context():
diff --git a/prediction_market_routes_to_add.py b/prediction_market_routes_to_add.py
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..c1c9a23a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/prediction_market_routes_to_add.py
@@ -0,0 +1,836 @@
+# ===========================
+# 预测市场 API 路由
+# 请将此文件内容插入到 app.py 的 `if __name__ == '__main__':` 之前
+# ===========================
+
+# --- 积分系统 API ---
+
+@app.route('/api/prediction/credit/account', methods=['GET'])
+@login_required
+def get_credit_account():
+    """获取用户积分账户"""
+    try:
+        account = UserCreditAccount.query.filter_by(user_id=current_user.id).first()
+
+        # 如果账户不存在，自动创建
+        if not account:
+            account = UserCreditAccount(user_id=current_user.id)
+            db.session.add(account)
+            db.session.commit()
+
+        return jsonify({
+            'success': True,
+            'data': {
+                'balance': float(account.balance),
+                'frozen_balance': float(account.frozen_balance),
+                'available_balance': float(account.balance - account.frozen_balance),
+                'total_earned': float(account.total_earned),
+                'total_spent': float(account.total_spent),
+                'last_daily_bonus_at': account.last_daily_bonus_at.isoformat() if account.last_daily_bonus_at else None
+            }
+        })
+
+    except Exception as e:
+        return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': str(e)}), 500
+
+
+@app.route('/api/prediction/credit/daily-bonus', methods=['POST'])
+@login_required
+def claim_daily_bonus():
+    """领取每日奖励（100积分）"""
+    try:
+        account = UserCreditAccount.query.filter_by(user_id=current_user.id).first()
+
+        if not account:
+            account = UserCreditAccount(user_id=current_user.id)
+            db.session.add(account)
+
+        # 检查是否已领取今日奖励
+        today = beijing_now().date()
+        if account.last_daily_bonus_at and account.last_daily_bonus_at.date() == today:
+            return jsonify({
+                'success': False,
+                'error': '今日奖励已领取'
+            }), 400
+
+        # 发放奖励
+        bonus_amount = 100.0
+        account.balance += bonus_amount
+        account.total_earned += bonus_amount
+        account.last_daily_bonus_at = beijing_now()
+
+        # 记录交易
+        transaction = CreditTransaction(
+            user_id=current_user.id,
+            transaction_type='daily_bonus',
+            amount=bonus_amount,
+            balance_after=account.balance,
+            description='每日登录奖励'
+        )
+        db.session.add(transaction)
+        db.session.commit()
+
+        return jsonify({
+            'success': True,
+            'message': f'领取成功，获得 {bonus_amount} 积分',
+            'data': {
+                'bonus_amount': bonus_amount,
+                'new_balance': float(account.balance)
+            }
+        })
+
+    except Exception as e:
+        db.session.rollback()
+        return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': str(e)}), 500
+
+
+# --- 预测话题 API ---
+
+@app.route('/api/prediction/topics', methods=['POST'])
+@login_required
+def create_prediction_topic():
+    """创建预测话题（消耗100积分）"""
+    try:
+        data = request.get_json()
+        title = data.get('title', '').strip()
+        description = data.get('description', '').strip()
+        category = data.get('category', 'stock')
+        deadline_str = data.get('deadline')
+
+        # 验证参数
+        if not title or len(title) < 5:
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '标题至少5个字符'}), 400
+
+        if not deadline_str:
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '请设置截止时间'}), 400
+
+        # 解析截止时间
+        deadline = datetime.fromisoformat(deadline_str.replace('Z', '+00:00'))
+        if deadline <= beijing_now():
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '截止时间必须在未来'}), 400
+
+        # 检查积分账户
+        account = UserCreditAccount.query.filter_by(user_id=current_user.id).first()
+        if not account or account.balance < 100:
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '积分不足（需要100积分）'}), 400
+
+        # 扣除创建费用
+        create_cost = 100.0
+        account.balance -= create_cost
+        account.total_spent += create_cost
+
+        # 创建话题
+        topic = PredictionTopic(
+            creator_id=current_user.id,
+            title=title,
+            description=description,
+            category=category,
+            deadline=deadline
+        )
+        db.session.add(topic)
+
+        # 记录积分交易
+        transaction = CreditTransaction(
+            user_id=current_user.id,
+            transaction_type='create_topic',
+            amount=-create_cost,
+            balance_after=account.balance,
+            description=f'创建预测话题：{title}'
+        )
+        db.session.add(transaction)
+        db.session.commit()
+
+        return jsonify({
+            'success': True,
+            'message': '话题创建成功',
+            'data': {
+                'topic_id': topic.id,
+                'title': topic.title,
+                'new_balance': float(account.balance)
+            }
+        })
+
+    except Exception as e:
+        db.session.rollback()
+        return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': str(e)}), 500
+
+
+@app.route('/api/prediction/topics', methods=['GET'])
+def get_prediction_topics():
+    """获取预测话题列表"""
+    try:
+        status = request.args.get('status', 'active')
+        category = request.args.get('category')
+        sort_by = request.args.get('sort_by', 'created_at')
+        page = request.args.get('page', 1, type=int)
+        per_page = request.args.get('per_page', 20, type=int)
+
+        # 构建查询
+        query = PredictionTopic.query
+
+        if status:
+            query = query.filter_by(status=status)
+        if category:
+            query = query.filter_by(category=category)
+
+        # 排序
+        if sort_by == 'hot':
+            query = query.order_by(desc(PredictionTopic.views_count))
+        elif sort_by == 'participants':
+            query = query.order_by(desc(PredictionTopic.participants_count))
+        else:
+            query = query.order_by(desc(PredictionTopic.created_at))
+
+        # 分页
+        pagination = query.paginate(page=page, per_page=per_page, error_out=False)
+        topics = pagination.items
+
+        # 格式化返回数据
+        topics_data = []
+        for topic in topics:
+            # 计算市场倾向
+            total_shares = topic.yes_total_shares + topic.no_total_shares
+            yes_prob = (topic.yes_total_shares / total_shares * 100) if total_shares > 0 else 50.0
+
+            topics_data.append({
+                'id': topic.id,
+                'title': topic.title,
+                'description': topic.description,
+                'category': topic.category,
+                'status': topic.status,
+                'yes_price': float(topic.yes_price),
+                'no_price': float(topic.no_price),
+                'yes_probability': round(yes_prob, 1),
+                'total_pool': float(topic.total_pool),
+                'yes_lord': {
+                    'id': topic.yes_lord.id,
+                    'username': topic.yes_lord.username,
+                    'nickname': topic.yes_lord.nickname or topic.yes_lord.username,
+                    'avatar_url': topic.yes_lord.avatar_url
+                } if topic.yes_lord else None,
+                'no_lord': {
+                    'id': topic.no_lord.id,
+                    'username': topic.no_lord.username,
+                    'nickname': topic.no_lord.nickname or topic.no_lord.username,
+                    'avatar_url': topic.no_lord.avatar_url
+                } if topic.no_lord else None,
+                'deadline': topic.deadline.isoformat(),
+                'created_at': topic.created_at.isoformat(),
+                'views_count': topic.views_count,
+                'comments_count': topic.comments_count,
+                'participants_count': topic.participants_count,
+                'creator': {
+                    'id': topic.creator.id,
+                    'username': topic.creator.username,
+                    'nickname': topic.creator.nickname or topic.creator.username
+                }
+            })
+
+        return jsonify({
+            'success': True,
+            'data': topics_data,
+            'pagination': {
+                'page': page,
+                'per_page': per_page,
+                'total': pagination.total,
+                'pages': pagination.pages,
+                'has_next': pagination.has_next,
+                'has_prev': pagination.has_prev
+            }
+        })
+
+    except Exception as e:
+        return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': str(e)}), 500
+
+
+@app.route('/api/prediction/topics/<int:topic_id>', methods=['GET'])
+def get_prediction_topic_detail(topic_id):
+    """获取预测话题详情"""
+    try:
+        topic = PredictionTopic.query.get_or_404(topic_id)
+
+        # 增加浏览量
+        topic.views_count += 1
+        db.session.commit()
+
+        # 计算市场倾向
+        total_shares = topic.yes_total_shares + topic.no_total_shares
+        yes_prob = (topic.yes_total_shares / total_shares * 100) if total_shares > 0 else 50.0
+
+        # 获取 TOP 5 持仓（YES 和 NO 各5个）
+        yes_top_positions = PredictionPosition.query.filter_by(
+            topic_id=topic_id,
+            direction='yes'
+        ).order_by(desc(PredictionPosition.shares)).limit(5).all()
+
+        no_top_positions = PredictionPosition.query.filter_by(
+            topic_id=topic_id,
+            direction='no'
+        ).order_by(desc(PredictionPosition.shares)).limit(5).all()
+
+        def format_position(position):
+            return {
+                'user': {
+                    'id': position.user.id,
+                    'username': position.user.username,
+                    'nickname': position.user.nickname or position.user.username,
+                    'avatar_url': position.user.avatar_url
+                },
+                'shares': position.shares,
+                'avg_cost': float(position.avg_cost),
+                'total_invested': float(position.total_invested),
+                'is_lord': (topic.yes_lord_id == position.user_id and position.direction == 'yes') or
+                           (topic.no_lord_id == position.user_id and position.direction == 'no')
+            }
+
+        return jsonify({
+            'success': True,
+            'data': {
+                'id': topic.id,
+                'title': topic.title,
+                'description': topic.description,
+                'category': topic.category,
+                'status': topic.status,
+                'result': topic.result,
+                'yes_price': float(topic.yes_price),
+                'no_price': float(topic.no_price),
+                'yes_total_shares': topic.yes_total_shares,
+                'no_total_shares': topic.no_total_shares,
+                'yes_probability': round(yes_prob, 1),
+                'no_probability': round(100 - yes_prob, 1),
+                'total_pool': float(topic.total_pool),
+                'yes_lord': {
+                    'id': topic.yes_lord.id,
+                    'username': topic.yes_lord.username,
+                    'nickname': topic.yes_lord.nickname or topic.yes_lord.username,
+                    'avatar_url': topic.yes_lord.avatar_url
+                } if topic.yes_lord else None,
+                'no_lord': {
+                    'id': topic.no_lord.id,
+                    'username': topic.no_lord.username,
+                    'nickname': topic.no_lord.nickname or topic.no_lord.username,
+                    'avatar_url': topic.no_lord.avatar_url
+                } if topic.no_lord else None,
+                'yes_top_positions': [format_position(p) for p in yes_top_positions],
+                'no_top_positions': [format_position(p) for p in no_top_positions],
+                'deadline': topic.deadline.isoformat(),
+                'settled_at': topic.settled_at.isoformat() if topic.settled_at else None,
+                'created_at': topic.created_at.isoformat(),
+                'views_count': topic.views_count,
+                'comments_count': topic.comments_count,
+                'participants_count': topic.participants_count,
+                'creator': {
+                    'id': topic.creator.id,
+                    'username': topic.creator.username,
+                    'nickname': topic.creator.nickname or topic.creator.username,
+                    'avatar_url': topic.creator.avatar_url
+                }
+            }
+        })
+
+    except Exception as e:
+        return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': str(e)}), 500
+
+
+@app.route('/api/prediction/topics/<int:topic_id>/settle', methods=['POST'])
+@login_required
+def settle_prediction_topic(topic_id):
+    """结算预测话题（仅创建者可操作）"""
+    try:
+        topic = PredictionTopic.query.get_or_404(topic_id)
+
+        # 验证权限
+        if topic.creator_id != current_user.id:
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '只有创建者可以结算'}), 403
+
+        # 验证状态
+        if topic.status != 'active':
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '话题已结算或已取消'}), 400
+
+        # 验证截止时间
+        if beijing_now() < topic.deadline:
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '未到截止时间'}), 400
+
+        # 获取结算结果
+        data = request.get_json()
+        result = data.get('result')  # 'yes', 'no', 'draw'
+
+        if result not in ['yes', 'no', 'draw']:
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '无效的结算结果'}), 400
+
+        # 更新话题状态
+        topic.status = 'settled'
+        topic.result = result
+        topic.settled_at = beijing_now()
+
+        # 获取获胜方的所有持仓
+        if result == 'draw':
+            # 平局：所有人按投入比例分配奖池
+            all_positions = PredictionPosition.query.filter_by(topic_id=topic_id).all()
+            total_invested = sum(p.total_invested for p in all_positions)
+
+            for position in all_positions:
+                if total_invested > 0:
+                    share_ratio = position.total_invested / total_invested
+                    prize = topic.total_pool * share_ratio
+
+                    # 发放奖金
+                    account = UserCreditAccount.query.filter_by(user_id=position.user_id).first()
+                    if account:
+                        account.balance += prize
+                        account.total_earned += prize
+
+                        # 记录交易
+                        transaction = CreditTransaction(
+                            user_id=position.user_id,
+                            transaction_type='settle_win',
+                            amount=prize,
+                            balance_after=account.balance,
+                            related_topic_id=topic_id,
+                            description=f'预测平局，获得奖池分红：{topic.title}'
+                        )
+                        db.session.add(transaction)
+
+        else:
+            # YES 或 NO 获胜
+            winning_direction = result
+            winning_positions = PredictionPosition.query.filter_by(
+                topic_id=topic_id,
+                direction=winning_direction
+            ).all()
+
+            if winning_positions:
+                total_winning_shares = sum(p.shares for p in winning_positions)
+
+                for position in winning_positions:
+                    # 按份额比例分配奖池
+                    share_ratio = position.shares / total_winning_shares
+                    prize = topic.total_pool * share_ratio
+
+                    # 发放奖金
+                    account = UserCreditAccount.query.filter_by(user_id=position.user_id).first()
+                    if account:
+                        account.balance += prize
+                        account.total_earned += prize
+
+                        # 记录交易
+                        transaction = CreditTransaction(
+                            user_id=position.user_id,
+                            transaction_type='settle_win',
+                            amount=prize,
+                            balance_after=account.balance,
+                            related_topic_id=topic_id,
+                            description=f'预测正确，获得奖金：{topic.title}'
+                        )
+                        db.session.add(transaction)
+
+        db.session.commit()
+
+        return jsonify({
+            'success': True,
+            'message': f'话题已结算，结果为：{result}',
+            'data': {
+                'topic_id': topic.id,
+                'result': result,
+                'total_pool': float(topic.total_pool),
+                'settled_at': topic.settled_at.isoformat()
+            }
+        })
+
+    except Exception as e:
+        db.session.rollback()
+        return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': str(e)}), 500
+
+
+# --- 交易 API ---
+
+@app.route('/api/prediction/trade/buy', methods=['POST'])
+@login_required
+def buy_prediction_shares():
+    """买入预测份额"""
+    try:
+        data = request.get_json()
+        topic_id = data.get('topic_id')
+        direction = data.get('direction')  # 'yes' or 'no'
+        shares = data.get('shares', 0)
+
+        # 验证参数
+        if not topic_id or direction not in ['yes', 'no'] or shares <= 0:
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '参数错误'}), 400
+
+        if shares > 1000:
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '单次最多买入1000份额'}), 400
+
+        # 获取话题
+        topic = PredictionTopic.query.get_or_404(topic_id)
+
+        if topic.status != 'active':
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '话题已结算或已取消'}), 400
+
+        if beijing_now() >= topic.deadline:
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '话题已截止'}), 400
+
+        # 获取积分账户
+        account = UserCreditAccount.query.filter_by(user_id=current_user.id).first()
+        if not account:
+            account = UserCreditAccount(user_id=current_user.id)
+            db.session.add(account)
+            db.session.flush()
+
+        # 计算价格
+        current_price = topic.yes_price if direction == 'yes' else topic.no_price
+
+        # 简化的AMM定价：price = (对应方份额 / 总份额) * 1000
+        total_shares = topic.yes_total_shares + topic.no_total_shares
+        if total_shares > 0:
+            if direction == 'yes':
+                current_price = (topic.yes_total_shares / total_shares) * 1000
+            else:
+                current_price = (topic.no_total_shares / total_shares) * 1000
+        else:
+            current_price = 500.0  # 初始价格
+
+        # 买入后价格会上涨，使用平均价格
+        after_total = total_shares + shares
+        if direction == 'yes':
+            after_yes_shares = topic.yes_total_shares + shares
+            after_price = (after_yes_shares / after_total) * 1000
+        else:
+            after_no_shares = topic.no_total_shares + shares
+            after_price = (after_no_shares / after_total) * 1000
+
+        avg_price = (current_price + after_price) / 2
+
+        # 计算费用
+        amount = avg_price * shares
+        tax = amount * 0.02  # 2% 手续费
+        total_cost = amount + tax
+
+        # 检查余额
+        if account.balance < total_cost:
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '积分不足'}), 400
+
+        # 扣除费用
+        account.balance -= total_cost
+        account.total_spent += total_cost
+
+        # 更新话题数据
+        if direction == 'yes':
+            topic.yes_total_shares += shares
+            topic.yes_price = after_price
+        else:
+            topic.no_total_shares += shares
+            topic.no_price = after_price
+
+        topic.total_pool += tax  # 手续费进入奖池
+
+        # 更新或创建持仓
+        position = PredictionPosition.query.filter_by(
+            user_id=current_user.id,
+            topic_id=topic_id,
+            direction=direction
+        ).first()
+
+        if position:
+            # 更新平均成本
+            old_cost = position.avg_cost * position.shares
+            new_cost = avg_price * shares
+            position.shares += shares
+            position.avg_cost = (old_cost + new_cost) / position.shares
+            position.total_invested += total_cost
+        else:
+            position = PredictionPosition(
+                user_id=current_user.id,
+                topic_id=topic_id,
+                direction=direction,
+                shares=shares,
+                avg_cost=avg_price,
+                total_invested=total_cost
+            )
+            db.session.add(position)
+            topic.participants_count += 1
+
+        # 更新领主
+        if direction == 'yes':
+            # 找到YES方持仓最多的用户
+            top_yes = db.session.query(PredictionPosition).filter_by(
+                topic_id=topic_id,
+                direction='yes'
+            ).order_by(desc(PredictionPosition.shares)).first()
+            if top_yes:
+                topic.yes_lord_id = top_yes.user_id
+        else:
+            # 找到NO方持仓最多的用户
+            top_no = db.session.query(PredictionPosition).filter_by(
+                topic_id=topic_id,
+                direction='no'
+            ).order_by(desc(PredictionPosition.shares)).first()
+            if top_no:
+                topic.no_lord_id = top_no.user_id
+
+        # 记录交易
+        transaction = PredictionTransaction(
+            user_id=current_user.id,
+            topic_id=topic_id,
+            transaction_type='buy',
+            direction=direction,
+            shares=shares,
+            price=avg_price,
+            amount=amount,
+            tax=tax,
+            total_cost=total_cost
+        )
+        db.session.add(transaction)
+
+        # 记录积分交易
+        credit_transaction = CreditTransaction(
+            user_id=current_user.id,
+            transaction_type='prediction_buy',
+            amount=-total_cost,
+            balance_after=account.balance,
+            related_topic_id=topic_id,
+            related_transaction_id=transaction.id,
+            description=f'买入 {direction.upper()} 份额：{topic.title}'
+        )
+        db.session.add(credit_transaction)
+
+        db.session.commit()
+
+        return jsonify({
+            'success': True,
+            'message': '买入成功',
+            'data': {
+                'transaction_id': transaction.id,
+                'shares': shares,
+                'price': round(avg_price, 2),
+                'total_cost': round(total_cost, 2),
+                'tax': round(tax, 2),
+                'new_balance': float(account.balance),
+                'new_position': {
+                    'shares': position.shares,
+                    'avg_cost': float(position.avg_cost)
+                }
+            }
+        })
+
+    except Exception as e:
+        db.session.rollback()
+        return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': str(e)}), 500
+
+
+@app.route('/api/prediction/positions', methods=['GET'])
+@login_required
+def get_user_positions():
+    """获取用户的所有持仓"""
+    try:
+        positions = PredictionPosition.query.filter_by(user_id=current_user.id).all()
+
+        positions_data = []
+        for position in positions:
+            topic = position.topic
+
+            # 计算当前市值（如果话题还在进行中）
+            current_value = 0
+            profit = 0
+            profit_rate = 0
+
+            if topic.status == 'active':
+                current_price = topic.yes_price if position.direction == 'yes' else topic.no_price
+                current_value = current_price * position.shares
+                profit = current_value - position.total_invested
+                profit_rate = (profit / position.total_invested * 100) if position.total_invested > 0 else 0
+
+            positions_data.append({
+                'id': position.id,
+                'topic': {
+                    'id': topic.id,
+                    'title': topic.title,
+                    'status': topic.status,
+                    'result': topic.result,
+                    'deadline': topic.deadline.isoformat()
+                },
+                'direction': position.direction,
+                'shares': position.shares,
+                'avg_cost': float(position.avg_cost),
+                'total_invested': float(position.total_invested),
+                'current_value': round(current_value, 2),
+                'profit': round(profit, 2),
+                'profit_rate': round(profit_rate, 2),
+                'created_at': position.created_at.isoformat(),
+                'is_lord': (topic.yes_lord_id == current_user.id and position.direction == 'yes') or
+                           (topic.no_lord_id == current_user.id and position.direction == 'no')
+            })
+
+        return jsonify({
+            'success': True,
+            'data': positions_data,
+            'count': len(positions_data)
+        })
+
+    except Exception as e:
+        return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': str(e)}), 500
+
+
+# --- 评论 API ---
+
+@app.route('/api/prediction/topics/<int:topic_id>/comments', methods=['POST'])
+@login_required
+def create_topic_comment(topic_id):
+    """发表话题评论"""
+    try:
+        topic = PredictionTopic.query.get_or_404(topic_id)
+
+        data = request.get_json()
+        content = data.get('content', '').strip()
+        parent_id = data.get('parent_id')
+
+        if not content or len(content) < 2:
+            return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': '评论内容至少2个字符'}), 400
+
+        # 创建评论
+        comment = TopicComment(
+            topic_id=topic_id,
+            user_id=current_user.id,
+            content=content,
+            parent_id=parent_id
+        )
+
+        # 如果是领主评论，自动置顶
+        is_lord = (topic.yes_lord_id == current_user.id) or (topic.no_lord_id == current_user.id)
+        if is_lord:
+            comment.is_pinned = True
+
+        db.session.add(comment)
+
+        # 更新话题评论数
+        topic.comments_count += 1
+
+        db.session.commit()
+
+        return jsonify({
+            'success': True,
+            'message': '评论成功',
+            'data': {
+                'comment_id': comment.id,
+                'content': comment.content,
+                'is_pinned': comment.is_pinned,
+                'created_at': comment.created_at.isoformat()
+            }
+        })
+
+    except Exception as e:
+        db.session.rollback()
+        return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': str(e)}), 500
+
+
+@app.route('/api/prediction/topics/<int:topic_id>/comments', methods=['GET'])
+def get_topic_comments(topic_id):
+    """获取话题评论列表"""
+    try:
+        topic = PredictionTopic.query.get_or_404(topic_id)
+
+        page = request.args.get('page', 1, type=int)
+        per_page = request.args.get('per_page', 20, type=int)
+
+        # 置顶评论在前，然后按时间倒序
+        query = TopicComment.query.filter_by(
+            topic_id=topic_id,
+            status='active',
+            parent_id=None  # 只获取顶级评论
+        ).order_by(
+            desc(TopicComment.is_pinned),
+            desc(TopicComment.created_at)
+        )
+
+        pagination = query.paginate(page=page, per_page=per_page, error_out=False)
+        comments = pagination.items
+
+        def format_comment(comment):
+            # 获取回复
+            replies = TopicComment.query.filter_by(
+                parent_id=comment.id,
+                status='active'
+            ).order_by(TopicComment.created_at).limit(5).all()
+
+            return {
+                'id': comment.id,
+                'content': comment.content,
+                'is_pinned': comment.is_pinned,
+                'likes_count': comment.likes_count,
+                'created_at': comment.created_at.isoformat(),
+                'user': {
+                    'id': comment.user.id,
+                    'username': comment.user.username,
+                    'nickname': comment.user.nickname or comment.user.username,
+                    'avatar_url': comment.user.avatar_url
+                },
+                'is_lord': (topic.yes_lord_id == comment.user_id) or (topic.no_lord_id == comment.user_id),
+                'replies': [{
+                    'id': reply.id,
+                    'content': reply.content,
+                    'created_at': reply.created_at.isoformat(),
+                    'user': {
+                        'id': reply.user.id,
+                        'username': reply.user.username,
+                        'nickname': reply.user.nickname or reply.user.username,
+                        'avatar_url': reply.user.avatar_url
+                    }
+                } for reply in replies]
+            }
+
+        comments_data = [format_comment(comment) for comment in comments]
+
+        return jsonify({
+            'success': True,
+            'data': comments_data,
+            'pagination': {
+                'page': page,
+                'per_page': per_page,
+                'total': pagination.total,
+                'pages': pagination.pages
+            }
+        })
+
+    except Exception as e:
+        return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': str(e)}), 500
+
+
+@app.route('/api/prediction/comments/<int:comment_id>/like', methods=['POST'])
+@login_required
+def like_topic_comment(comment_id):
+    """点赞/取消点赞评论"""
+    try:
+        comment = TopicComment.query.get_or_404(comment_id)
+
+        # 检查是否已点赞
+        existing_like = TopicCommentLike.query.filter_by(
+            comment_id=comment_id,
+            user_id=current_user.id
+        ).first()
+
+        if existing_like:
+            # 取消点赞
+            db.session.delete(existing_like)
+            comment.likes_count = max(0, comment.likes_count - 1)
+            action = 'unliked'
+        else:
+            # 点赞
+            like = TopicCommentLike(
+                comment_id=comment_id,
+                user_id=current_user.id
+            )
+            db.session.add(like)
+            comment.likes_count += 1
+            action = 'liked'
+
+        db.session.commit()
+
+        return jsonify({
+            'success': True,
+            'action': action,
+            'likes_count': comment.likes_count
+        })
+
+    except Exception as e:
+        db.session.rollback()
+        return jsonify({'success': False, 'error': str(e)}), 500
diff --git a/src/views/ValueForum/components/PredictionGuideModal.js b/src/views/ValueForum/components/PredictionGuideModal.js
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..68b91260
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/views/ValueForum/components/PredictionGuideModal.js
@@ -0,0 +1,713 @@
+/**
+ * 预测市场玩法说明模态框
+ * 帮助用户理解游戏规则和操作流程
+ */
+
+import React, { useState } from 'react';
+import {
+  Modal,
+  ModalOverlay,
+  ModalContent,
+  ModalHeader,
+  ModalBody,
+  ModalFooter,
+  ModalCloseButton,
+  Button,
+  VStack,
+  HStack,
+  Text,
+  Box,
+  Icon,
+  Badge,
+  Tabs,
+  TabList,
+  TabPanels,
+  Tab,
+  TabPanel,
+  Divider,
+  List,
+  ListItem,
+  ListIcon,
+  Accordion,
+  AccordionItem,
+  AccordionButton,
+  AccordionPanel,
+  AccordionIcon,
+  Image,
+  SimpleGrid,
+  Flex,
+  useColorModeValue,
+} from '@chakra-ui/react';
+import {
+  Zap,
+  TrendingUp,
+  TrendingDown,
+  Crown,
+  DollarSign,
+  Users,
+  Clock,
+  Trophy,
+  CheckCircle2,
+  AlertCircle,
+  ArrowRight,
+  Target,
+  Wallet,
+  RefreshCw,
+  Gift,
+} from 'lucide-react';
+import { motion } from 'framer-motion';
+import { forumColors } from '@theme/forumTheme';
+
+const MotionBox = motion(Box);
+
+const PredictionGuideModal = ({ isOpen, onClose }) => {
+  const [activeTab, setActiveTab] = useState(0);
+
+  // 特性列表
+  const features = [
+    {
+      icon: Zap,
+      title: '预测市场',
+      desc: '对未来事件进行预测，购买看涨/看跌席位',
+      color: 'yellow.400',
+    },
+    {
+      icon: DollarSign,
+      title: '虚拟积分',
+      desc: '使用论坛积分参与，初始10,000积分',
+      color: 'green.400',
+    },
+    {
+      icon: Crown,
+      title: '领主系统',
+      desc: '持有最多份额者成为领主，拥有特权',
+      color: 'orange.400',
+    },
+    {
+      icon: Trophy,
+      title: '赢取奖池',
+      desc: '预测正确者分享奖池，最高收益无上限',
+      color: 'purple.400',
+    },
+  ];
+
+  // 操作步骤
+  const steps = [
+    {
+      step: 1,
+      title: '发起预测话题',
+      desc: '创建一个可预测的话题，设置截止时间',
+      icon: Zap,
+      details: [
+        '点击"发起预测"按钮',
+        '填写话题标题和描述',
+        '选择分类和截止时间',
+        '支付100积分创建费用（进入奖池）',
+      ],
+    },
+    {
+      step: 2,
+      title: '购买席位表达观点',
+      desc: '选择看涨或看跌方向，购买席位',
+      icon: TrendingUp,
+      details: [
+        '浏览预测话题，选择感兴趣的',
+        '点击"购买席位"',
+        '选择方向：看涨(Yes) 或 看跌(No)',
+        '调整购买份额（1-10份）',
+        '支付积分（含2%交易税）',
+      ],
+    },
+    {
+      step: 3,
+      title: '成为领主获得特权',
+      desc: '持有最多份额自动成为领主',
+      icon: Crown,
+      details: [
+        '持有某方向最多份额即成为领主',
+        '领主评论自动置顶（计划中）',
+        '专属👑领主徽章显示',
+        '领主身份随交易实时变更',
+      ],
+    },
+    {
+      step: 4,
+      title: '等待结果揭晓',
+      desc: '话题到期后，作者提交结果',
+      icon: Clock,
+      details: [
+        '话题到达截止时间，停止交易',
+        '作者提交结果和证据',
+        '系统自动计算奖池分配',
+        '获胜方按份额比例分享奖池',
+      ],
+    },
+  ];
+
+  // 常见问题
+  const faqs = [
+    {
+      q: '💰 初始积分是多少？会破产吗？',
+      a: '每个用户初始获得10,000积分。系统有破产保护机制，最低保留100积分，不会完全归零。每日签到可获得100积分奖励。',
+    },
+    {
+      q: '📊 价格是如何变动的？',
+      a: '价格根据供需关系动态调整。购买某方向会导致该方向价格上涨，对方价格下跌。采用简化版AMM（自动做市商）算法。',
+    },
+    {
+      q: '👑 领主有什么特权？',
+      a: '领主是持有某方向最多份额的用户。特权包括：评论自动置顶（计划中）、专属徽章显示、更高的话语权。领主身份随交易实时变更。',
+    },
+    {
+      q: '🎯 如何计算收益？',
+      a: '获胜方按持有份额比例分享奖池。例如：奖池1000积分，你持有获胜方30%份额，则获得300积分 + 返还本金。',
+    },
+    {
+      q: '💸 交易税去哪了？',
+      a: '每笔交易收取2%交易税，全部进入话题奖池。这确保了即使无人参与对立面，奖池也有资金可分配。',
+    },
+    {
+      q: '🔄 可以卖出席位吗？',
+      a: '可以！在话题截止前，随时可以卖出席位。卖出价格同样根据市场供需动态计算，可能高于或低于买入价。',
+    },
+    {
+      q: '⚖️ 如何确保公平？',
+      a: '作者不能参与自己发起的话题。结果需要提交证据。未来将引入社区投票仲裁机制处理争议。',
+    },
+    {
+      q: '📈 单次最多能买多少？',
+      a: '单次购买上限1000积分，避免大户操纵市场。每个方向最多5个席位持有者，确保市场活跃度。',
+    },
+  ];
+
+  // 示例场景
+  const exampleScenario = {
+    title: '📖 完整示例：贵州茅台预测',
+    steps: [
+      {
+        title: '1. 创建话题',
+        content: '小明创建话题："贵州茅台下周会涨吗？"，支付100积分。奖池：100积分。',
+      },
+      {
+        title: '2. 用户参与',
+        content: [
+          '小红购买3份"看涨"，花费1,530积分（含税）',
+          '小李购买2份"看跌"，花费1,020积分（含税）',
+          '交易税进入奖池：51积分',
+          '当前奖池：151积分',
+        ],
+      },
+      {
+        title: '3. 价格变动',
+        content: '看涨份额增加 → 看涨价格上涨至680积分/份，看跌价格下跌至320积分/份',
+      },
+      {
+        title: '4. 领主诞生',
+        content: '小红持有看涨方最多份额，成为看涨方👑领主',
+      },
+      {
+        title: '5. 结果揭晓',
+        content: [
+          '一周后，茅台上涨5%，小明提交结果："看涨"获胜',
+          '小红获得：本金1500积分 + 奖池151积分 = 1651积分',
+          '小红净收益：1651 - 1530 = +121积分 (收益率7.9%)',
+          '小李损失本金1000积分',
+        ],
+      },
+    ],
+  };
+
+  return (
+    <Modal isOpen={isOpen} onClose={onClose} size="6xl" isCentered scrollBehavior="inside">
+      <ModalOverlay backdropFilter="blur(4px)" bg="blackAlpha.800" />
+      <ModalContent
+        bg={forumColors.background.card}
+        borderRadius="2xl"
+        border="2px solid"
+        borderColor={forumColors.border.gold}
+        maxH="90vh"
+      >
+        <ModalHeader
+          bg={forumColors.gradients.goldPrimary}
+          borderTopRadius="2xl"
+          py="6"
+        >
+          <HStack spacing="3">
+            <Icon as={Zap} boxSize="28px" color={forumColors.background.main} />
+            <VStack align="start" spacing="0">
+              <Text fontSize="2xl" fontWeight="bold" color={forumColors.background.main}>
+                预测市场玩法说明
+              </Text>
+              <Text fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.background.main} opacity={0.9}>
+                5分钟快速上手，开启预测之旅
+              </Text>
+            </VStack>
+          </HStack>
+        </ModalHeader>
+        <ModalCloseButton color={forumColors.background.main} top="6" right="6" />
+
+        <ModalBody py="6">
+          <Tabs
+            index={activeTab}
+            onChange={setActiveTab}
+            variant="soft-rounded"
+            colorScheme="yellow"
+          >
+            <TabList mb="6" flexWrap="wrap">
+              <Tab
+                _selected={{
+                  bg: forumColors.gradients.goldPrimary,
+                  color: forumColors.background.main,
+                }}
+              >
+                <Icon as={Target} boxSize="16px" mr="2" />
+                核心玩法
+              </Tab>
+              <Tab
+                _selected={{
+                  bg: forumColors.gradients.goldPrimary,
+                  color: forumColors.background.main,
+                }}
+              >
+                <Icon as={CheckCircle2} boxSize="16px" mr="2" />
+                操作步骤
+              </Tab>
+              <Tab
+                _selected={{
+                  bg: forumColors.gradients.goldPrimary,
+                  color: forumColors.background.main,
+                }}
+              >
+                <Icon as={AlertCircle} boxSize="16px" mr="2" />
+                常见问题
+              </Tab>
+              <Tab
+                _selected={{
+                  bg: forumColors.gradients.goldPrimary,
+                  color: forumColors.background.main,
+                }}
+              >
+                <Icon as={Trophy} boxSize="16px" mr="2" />
+                示例演示
+              </Tab>
+            </TabList>
+
+            <TabPanels>
+              {/* 核心玩法 */}
+              <TabPanel p="0">
+                <VStack spacing="6" align="stretch">
+                  {/* 核心特性 */}
+                  <SimpleGrid columns={{ base: 1, md: 2 }} spacing="4">
+                    {features.map((feature, index) => (
+                      <MotionBox
+                        key={index}
+                        initial={{ opacity: 0, y: 20 }}
+                        animate={{ opacity: 1, y: 0 }}
+                        transition={{ delay: index * 0.1 }}
+                        bg={forumColors.background.hover}
+                        p="5"
+                        borderRadius="xl"
+                        border="1px solid"
+                        borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+                        _hover={{
+                          borderColor: forumColors.border.gold,
+                          transform: 'translateY(-4px)',
+                          boxShadow: forumColors.shadows.gold,
+                        }}
+                      >
+                        <HStack spacing="4" align="start">
+                          <Box
+                            bg={forumColors.gradients.goldSubtle}
+                            p="3"
+                            borderRadius="lg"
+                          >
+                            <Icon as={feature.icon} boxSize="24px" color={feature.color} />
+                          </Box>
+                          <VStack align="start" spacing="1" flex="1">
+                            <Text fontWeight="700" fontSize="lg" color={forumColors.text.primary}>
+                              {feature.title}
+                            </Text>
+                            <Text fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                              {feature.desc}
+                            </Text>
+                          </VStack>
+                        </HStack>
+                      </MotionBox>
+                    ))}
+                  </SimpleGrid>
+
+                  <Divider borderColor={forumColors.border.default} />
+
+                  {/* 游戏规则 */}
+                  <Box>
+                    <Text fontSize="xl" fontWeight="700" color={forumColors.text.primary} mb="4">
+                      📜 游戏规则
+                    </Text>
+                    <VStack spacing="3" align="stretch">
+                      <Box
+                        bg={forumColors.gradients.goldSubtle}
+                        p="4"
+                        borderRadius="lg"
+                        border="1px solid"
+                        borderColor={forumColors.border.gold}
+                      >
+                        <HStack spacing="2" mb="2">
+                          <Icon as={Wallet} boxSize="18px" color={forumColors.primary[500]} />
+                          <Text fontWeight="600" color={forumColors.text.primary}>
+                            积分系统
+                          </Text>
+                        </HStack>
+                        <List spacing="2" fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                          <ListItem>
+                            <ListIcon as={CheckCircle2} color="green.400" />
+                            初始积分：10,000积分（免费领取）
+                          </ListItem>
+                          <ListItem>
+                            <ListIcon as={CheckCircle2} color="green.400" />
+                            最低保留：100积分（破产保护）
+                          </ListItem>
+                          <ListItem>
+                            <ListIcon as={CheckCircle2} color="green.400" />
+                            单次上限：1,000积分（防止操纵）
+                          </ListItem>
+                          <ListItem>
+                            <ListIcon as={CheckCircle2} color="green.400" />
+                            每日签到：+100积分（每天领取）
+                          </ListItem>
+                        </List>
+                      </Box>
+
+                      <Box
+                        bg={forumColors.background.hover}
+                        p="4"
+                        borderRadius="lg"
+                        border="1px solid"
+                        borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+                      >
+                        <HStack spacing="2" mb="2">
+                          <Icon as={TrendingUp} boxSize="18px" color="green.400" />
+                          <Text fontWeight="600" color={forumColors.text.primary}>
+                            双向市场
+                          </Text>
+                        </HStack>
+                        <List spacing="2" fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                          <ListItem>
+                            <ListIcon as={CheckCircle2} color="green.400" />
+                            看涨 (Yes)：预测会上涨/发生
+                          </ListItem>
+                          <ListItem>
+                            <ListIcon as={CheckCircle2} color="green.400" />
+                            看跌 (No)：预测会下跌/不发生
+                          </ListItem>
+                          <ListItem>
+                            <ListIcon as={CheckCircle2} color="green.400" />
+                            价格动态变化，根据供需关系调整
+                          </ListItem>
+                          <ListItem>
+                            <ListIcon as={CheckCircle2} color="green.400" />
+                            可以随时买入和卖出（截止前）
+                          </ListItem>
+                        </List>
+                      </Box>
+
+                      <Box
+                        bg={forumColors.background.hover}
+                        p="4"
+                        borderRadius="lg"
+                        border="1px solid"
+                        borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+                      >
+                        <HStack spacing="2" mb="2">
+                          <Icon as={Crown} boxSize="18px" color="yellow.400" />
+                          <Text fontWeight="600" color={forumColors.text.primary}>
+                            领主系统
+                          </Text>
+                        </HStack>
+                        <List spacing="2" fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                          <ListItem>
+                            <ListIcon as={CheckCircle2} color="green.400" />
+                            持有最多份额者自动成为领主
+                          </ListItem>
+                          <ListItem>
+                            <ListIcon as={CheckCircle2} color="green.400" />
+                            领主评论自动置顶（计划中）
+                          </ListItem>
+                          <ListItem>
+                            <ListIcon as={CheckCircle2} color="green.400" />
+                            专属👑徽章和金色边框
+                          </ListItem>
+                          <ListItem>
+                            <ListIcon as={CheckCircle2} color="green.400" />
+                            领主身份随交易实时变更
+                          </ListItem>
+                        </List>
+                      </Box>
+
+                      <Box
+                        bg={forumColors.background.hover}
+                        p="4"
+                        borderRadius="lg"
+                        border="1px solid"
+                        borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+                      >
+                        <HStack spacing="2" mb="2">
+                          <Icon as={Trophy} boxSize="18px" color="purple.400" />
+                          <Text fontWeight="600" color={forumColors.text.primary}>
+                            奖池分配
+                          </Text>
+                        </HStack>
+                        <List spacing="2" fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                          <ListItem>
+                            <ListIcon as={CheckCircle2} color="green.400" />
+                            交易税：每笔交易2%进入奖池
+                          </ListItem>
+                          <ListItem>
+                            <ListIcon as={CheckCircle2} color="green.400" />
+                            获胜方按份额比例分享奖池
+                          </ListItem>
+                          <ListItem>
+                            <ListIcon as={CheckCircle2} color="green.400" />
+                            返还本金 + 奖池分成
+                          </ListItem>
+                          <ListItem>
+                            <ListIcon as={CheckCircle2} color="green.400" />
+                            失败方损失本金
+                          </ListItem>
+                        </List>
+                      </Box>
+                    </VStack>
+                  </Box>
+                </VStack>
+              </TabPanel>
+
+              {/* 操作步骤 */}
+              <TabPanel p="0">
+                <VStack spacing="6" align="stretch">
+                  {steps.map((step, index) => (
+                    <MotionBox
+                      key={index}
+                      initial={{ opacity: 0, x: -20 }}
+                      animate={{ opacity: 1, x: 0 }}
+                      transition={{ delay: index * 0.1 }}
+                      bg={forumColors.background.hover}
+                      p="6"
+                      borderRadius="xl"
+                      border="2px solid"
+                      borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+                      position="relative"
+                      overflow="hidden"
+                      _hover={{
+                        borderColor: forumColors.border.gold,
+                        boxShadow: forumColors.shadows.gold,
+                      }}
+                    >
+                      {/* 步骤编号 */}
+                      <Box
+                        position="absolute"
+                        top="-10px"
+                        right="-10px"
+                        fontSize="120px"
+                        fontWeight="900"
+                        color={forumColors.border.default}
+                        opacity={0.1}
+                        lineHeight="1"
+                      >
+                        {step.step}
+                      </Box>
+
+                      <HStack spacing="4" align="start" mb="4" position="relative" zIndex={1}>
+                        <Box
+                          bg={forumColors.gradients.goldPrimary}
+                          p="3"
+                          borderRadius="lg"
+                        >
+                          <Icon as={step.icon} boxSize="24px" color={forumColors.background.main} />
+                        </Box>
+
+                        <VStack align="start" spacing="1" flex="1">
+                          <HStack>
+                            <Badge
+                              bg={forumColors.primary[500]}
+                              color={forumColors.background.main}
+                              px="3"
+                              py="1"
+                              borderRadius="full"
+                              fontSize="xs"
+                            >
+                              步骤 {step.step}
+                            </Badge>
+                          </HStack>
+                          <Text fontSize="xl" fontWeight="700" color={forumColors.text.primary}>
+                            {step.title}
+                          </Text>
+                          <Text fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                            {step.desc}
+                          </Text>
+                        </VStack>
+                      </HStack>
+
+                      <Divider borderColor={forumColors.border.default} mb="4" />
+
+                      <List spacing="2" pl="4">
+                        {step.details.map((detail, i) => (
+                          <ListItem
+                            key={i}
+                            fontSize="sm"
+                            color={forumColors.text.secondary}
+                          >
+                            <HStack spacing="2">
+                              <Icon as={ArrowRight} boxSize="14px" color={forumColors.primary[500]} />
+                              <Text>{detail}</Text>
+                            </HStack>
+                          </ListItem>
+                        ))}
+                      </List>
+                    </MotionBox>
+                  ))}
+                </VStack>
+              </TabPanel>
+
+              {/* 常见问题 */}
+              <TabPanel p="0">
+                <Accordion allowMultiple>
+                  {faqs.map((faq, index) => (
+                    <AccordionItem
+                      key={index}
+                      border="1px solid"
+                      borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+                      borderRadius="lg"
+                      mb="3"
+                      bg={forumColors.background.hover}
+                    >
+                      <AccordionButton
+                        py="4"
+                        _hover={{ bg: forumColors.background.card }}
+                        borderRadius="lg"
+                      >
+                        <Box flex="1" textAlign="left">
+                          <Text fontWeight="600" color={forumColors.text.primary}>
+                            {faq.q}
+                          </Text>
+                        </Box>
+                        <AccordionIcon color={forumColors.primary[500]} />
+                      </AccordionButton>
+                      <AccordionPanel pb="4">
+                        <Text fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.secondary} lineHeight="1.8">
+                          {faq.a}
+                        </Text>
+                      </AccordionPanel>
+                    </AccordionItem>
+                  ))}
+                </Accordion>
+              </TabPanel>
+
+              {/* 示例演示 */}
+              <TabPanel p="0">
+                <VStack spacing="6" align="stretch">
+                  <Box
+                    bg={forumColors.gradients.goldSubtle}
+                    p="6"
+                    borderRadius="xl"
+                    border="2px solid"
+                    borderColor={forumColors.border.gold}
+                  >
+                    <Text fontSize="2xl" fontWeight="700" color={forumColors.text.primary} mb="2">
+                      {exampleScenario.title}
+                    </Text>
+                    <Text fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                      通过完整案例理解预测市场的运作流程
+                    </Text>
+                  </Box>
+
+                  {exampleScenario.steps.map((item, index) => (
+                    <Box
+                      key={index}
+                      bg={forumColors.background.hover}
+                      p="5"
+                      borderRadius="lg"
+                      border="1px solid"
+                      borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+                    >
+                      <Text fontWeight="700" color={forumColors.primary[500]} mb="3">
+                        {item.title}
+                      </Text>
+                      {Array.isArray(item.content) ? (
+                        <VStack spacing="2" align="stretch">
+                          {item.content.map((line, i) => (
+                            <HStack key={i} spacing="2">
+                              <Icon as={ArrowRight} boxSize="14px" color={forumColors.primary[500]} />
+                              <Text fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                                {line}
+                              </Text>
+                            </HStack>
+                          ))}
+                        </VStack>
+                      ) : (
+                        <Text fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                          {item.content}
+                        </Text>
+                      )}
+                    </Box>
+                  ))}
+
+                  {/* 关键提示 */}
+                  <Box
+                    bg="green.50"
+                    border="2px solid"
+                    borderColor="green.400"
+                    p="5"
+                    borderRadius="lg"
+                  >
+                    <HStack spacing="3" mb="3">
+                      <Icon as={Gift} boxSize="24px" color="green.600" />
+                      <Text fontWeight="700" color="green.700" fontSize="lg">
+                        💡 关键提示
+                      </Text>
+                    </HStack>
+                    <VStack spacing="2" align="stretch">
+                      <Text fontSize="sm" color="green.700">
+                        ✅ 早期参与价格低，后期参与价格高
+                      </Text>
+                      <Text fontSize="sm" color="green.700">
+                        ✅ 可以通过"低买高卖"赚取差价（Flipper玩法）
+                      </Text>
+                      <Text fontSize="sm" color="green.700">
+                        ✅ 即使预测失败，也可能通过卖出获利
+                      </Text>
+                      <Text fontSize="sm" color="green.700">
+                        ✅ 成为领主可获得社区影响力
+                      </Text>
+                    </VStack>
+                  </Box>
+                </VStack>
+              </TabPanel>
+            </TabPanels>
+          </Tabs>
+        </ModalBody>
+
+        <ModalFooter
+          borderTop="1px solid"
+          borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+          py="4"
+        >
+          <HStack spacing="3" w="full" justify="space-between">
+            <Text fontSize="xs" color={forumColors.text.tertiary}>
+              💡 提示：每日签到可获得100积分
+            </Text>
+            <Button
+              bg={forumColors.gradients.goldPrimary}
+              color={forumColors.background.main}
+              fontWeight="bold"
+              onClick={onClose}
+              _hover={{ opacity: 0.9 }}
+            >
+              开始预测
+            </Button>
+          </HStack>
+        </ModalFooter>
+      </ModalContent>
+    </Modal>
+  );
+};
+
+export default PredictionGuideModal;
diff --git a/src/views/ValueForum/index.js b/src/views/ValueForum/index.js
index da42d192..3d5444f7 100644
--- a/src/views/ValueForum/index.js
+++ b/src/views/ValueForum/index.js
@@ -29,7 +29,7 @@ import {
   TabPanel,
   Icon,
 } from '@chakra-ui/react';
-import { Search, PenSquare, TrendingUp, Clock, Heart, Zap } from 'lucide-react';
+import { Search, PenSquare, TrendingUp, Clock, Heart, Zap, HelpCircle } from 'lucide-react';
 import { motion, AnimatePresence } from 'framer-motion';
 import { forumColors } from '@theme/forumTheme';
 import { getPosts, searchPosts } from '@services/elasticsearchService';
@@ -38,6 +38,7 @@ import PostCard from './components/PostCard';
 import PredictionTopicCard from './components/PredictionTopicCard';
 import CreatePostModal from './components/CreatePostModal';
 import CreatePredictionModal from './components/CreatePredictionModal';
+import PredictionGuideModal from './components/PredictionGuideModal';
 
 const MotionBox = motion(Box);
 
@@ -54,6 +55,7 @@ const ValueForum = () => {
 
   const { isOpen: isPostModalOpen, onOpen: onPostModalOpen, onClose: onPostModalClose } = useDisclosure();
   const { isOpen: isPredictionModalOpen, onOpen: onPredictionModalOpen, onClose: onPredictionModalClose } = useDisclosure();
+  const { isOpen: isGuideModalOpen, onOpen: onGuideModalOpen, onClose: onGuideModalClose } = useDisclosure();
 
   // 获取帖子列表
   const fetchPosts = async (currentPage = 1, reset = false) => {
@@ -178,6 +180,24 @@ const ValueForum = () => {
 
               {/* 发帖按钮 */}
               <HStack spacing="3">
+                <Button
+                  leftIcon={<HelpCircle size={18} />}
+                  variant="outline"
+                  color={forumColors.primary[500]}
+                  borderColor={forumColors.primary[500]}
+                  size="lg"
+                  fontWeight="bold"
+                  onClick={onGuideModalOpen}
+                  _hover={{
+                    transform: 'translateY(-2px)',
+                    bg: forumColors.primary[50],
+                    borderColor: forumColors.primary[600],
+                  }}
+                  _active={{ transform: 'translateY(0)' }}
+                >
+                  玩法说明
+                </Button>
+
                 <Button
                   leftIcon={<PenSquare size={18} />}
                   bg={forumColors.background.card}
@@ -462,6 +482,12 @@ const ValueForum = () => {
         onClose={onPredictionModalClose}
         onTopicCreated={handlePredictionCreated}
       />
+
+      {/* 玩法说明模态框 */}
+      <PredictionGuideModal
+        isOpen={isGuideModalOpen}
+        onClose={onGuideModalClose}
+      />
     </Box>
   );
 };