update pay ui

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2025-12-05 13:29:18 +08:00
parent 20994cfb13
commit 48d9c76c5e
1008 changed files with 417880 additions and 486974 deletions

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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="zh-CN">
<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<title>寒潮投资概念深度解析 - 季节性事件驱动的短期机遇</title>
<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.4.0/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
<title>寒潮概念深度投研报告</title>
<!-- Tailwind & DaisyUI CDN -->
<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.10.2/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/font-awesome/6.4.0/css/all.min.css">
<!-- Alpine.js CDN -->
<script defer src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js"></script>
<!-- ECharts CDN -->
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
<!-- Google Fonts: Inter -->
<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com">
<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.gstatic.com" crossorigin>
<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:wght@300;400;500;600;700&display=swap" rel="stylesheet">
<style>
@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:wght@300;400;500;600;700;800&display=swap');
body {
font-family: 'Inter', sans-serif;
background: linear-gradient(135deg, #667eea 0%, #764ba2 100%);
font-family: 'Inter', 'Helvetica Neue', 'Arial', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', sans-serif;
background-color: #020414;
background-image:
radial-gradient(circle at 15% 20%, hsla(217, 71%, 54%, 0.15) 0%, transparent 40%),
radial-gradient(circle at 85% 75%, hsla(283, 47%, 49%, 0.15) 0%, transparent 40%),
radial-gradient(circle at 50% 50%, hsla(180, 93%, 72%, 0.05) 0%, transparent 30%);
background-attachment: fixed;
min-height: 100vh;
}
.glass-morphism {
background: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.95);
backdrop-filter: blur(10px);
border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.18);
.glass-card {
background: rgba(15, 23, 42, 0.4); /* slate-900 with alpha */
backdrop-filter: blur(20px) saturate(180%);
-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(20px) saturate(180%);
border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.08);
}
.text-glow {
text-shadow: 0 0 12px hsla(180, 100%, 50%, 0.7);
}
.hero-gradient {
background: linear-gradient(135deg, #667eea 0%, #764ba2 100%);
.section-title-glow {
text-shadow: 0 0 16px hsla(190, 90%, 60%, 0.6), 0 0 4px hsla(190, 90%, 60%, 0.8);
}
.timeline-item-custom::before {
background-color: hsl(var(--p));
box-shadow: 0 0 10px hsl(var(--p) / 0.7);
}
.card-hover {
transition: all 0.3s ease;
.table thead th {
background-color: rgba(0, 150, 255, 0.1);
color: #b0c4de; /* Light Steel Blue */
border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(0, 150, 255, 0.2);
}
.table tbody tr {
border-bottom-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.08);
}
.card-hover:hover {
transform: translateY(-5px);
box-shadow: 0 20px 40px rgba(0,0,0,0.1);
}
.pulse-animation {
animation: pulse 2s infinite;
}
@keyframes pulse {
0% { transform: scale(1); }
50% { transform: scale(1.05); }
100% { transform: scale(1); }
}
.timeline-item::before {
content: '';
position: absolute;
left: -8px;
top: 50%;
transform: translateY(-50%);
width: 16px;
height: 16px;
border-radius: 50%;
background: #667eea;
box-shadow: 0 0 0 4px rgba(102, 126, 234, 0.2);
}
.timeline-line {
position: absolute;
left: 0;
top: 0;
bottom: 0;
width: 2px;
background: linear-gradient(180deg, #667eea, #764ba2);
}
.stock-table {
display: block;
overflow-x: auto;
white-space: nowrap;
}
@media (max-width: 768px) {
.stock-table {
font-size: 0.75rem;
}
}
.floating-icon {
animation: float 3s ease-in-out infinite;
}
@keyframes float {
0%, 100% { transform: translateY(0); }
50% { transform: translateY(-10px); }
}
.gradient-text {
background: linear-gradient(135deg, #667eea, #764ba2);
-webkit-background-clip: text;
-webkit-text-fill-color: transparent;
background-clip: text;
.table tbody tr:last-child {
border-bottom: none;
}
</style>
</head>
<body class="bg-gray-50">
<!-- Hero Section -->
<div class="hero-gradient text-white py-20">
<div class="container mx-auto px-4">
<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row items-center justify-between">
<div class="md:w-2/3 mb-10 md:mb-0">
<div class="flex items-center mb-4">
<i class="fas fa-snowflake text-4xl mr-4 floating-icon"></i>
<h1 class="text-5xl font-bold">寒潮投资概念</h1>
</div>
<p class="text-xl mb-6">季节性事件驱动的短期机遇分析</p>
<div class="grid grid-cols-2 md:grid-cols-4 gap-4">
<div class="bg-white/20 backdrop-blur rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="text-3xl font-bold">15-30</div>
<div class="text-sm">有效窗口期(天)</div>
</div>
<div class="bg-white/20 backdrop-blur rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="text-3xl font-bold">3次</div>
<div class="text-sm">2024-25预警峰值</div>
</div>
<div class="bg-white/20 backdrop-blur rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="text-3xl font-bold">10%</div>
<div class="text-sm">波司登单日涨幅</div>
</div>
<div class="bg-white/20 backdrop-blur rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="text-3xl font-bold">60万吨</div>
<div class="text-sm">东三省日耗峰值</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="md:w-1/3">
<div class="bg-white/10 backdrop-blur rounded-2xl p-6">
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4">当前阶段判断</h3>
<div class="space-y-3">
<div class="flex items-center">
<i class="fas fa-fire text-yellow-400 mr-3"></i>
<span>季节性事件驱动高峰期</span>
</div>
<div class="flex items-center">
<i class="fas fa-chart-line text-green-400 mr-3"></i>
<span>短期主题投资机会</span>
</div>
<div class="flex items-center">
<i class="fas fa-exclamation-triangle text-orange-400 mr-3"></i>
<span>非长期产业趋势</span>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<body class="text-slate-300">
<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8 space-y-12">
<!-- Header -->
<header class="text-center space-y-4">
<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold text-transparent bg-clip-text bg-gradient-to-r from-cyan-300 via-sky-400 to-blue-500 section-title-glow tracking-wider">
寒潮 (Cold Snap)
</h1>
<h2 class="text-xl md:text-2xl text-slate-400 font-light">概念深度投研报告</h2>
<p class="text-xs text-slate-500 pt-2">
北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现
<br>
本报告为AI合成数据投资需谨慎。
</p>
</header>
<!-- Main Content -->
<div class="container mx-auto px-4 py-10">
<!-- 时间轴 -->
<div class="glass-morphism rounded-2xl p-8 mb-8">
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold gradient-text mb-6">概念事件时间轴</h2>
<div class="relative">
<div class="timeline-line"></div>
<div class="space-y-6">
<div class="timeline-item relative pl-8">
<div class="bg-blue-50 rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="font-semibold text-blue-600">2024年11月下旬</div>
<div>首轮预警启动寒潮蓝色预警0℃线南压至苏皖北部</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item relative pl-8">
<div class="bg-orange-50 rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="font-semibold text-orange-600">2025年1月23日</div>
<div>中国气象局启动寒潮暴雪Ⅲ级应急响应局地降温超20℃</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item relative pl-8">
<div class="bg-purple-50 rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="font-semibold text-purple-600">2025年1-2月</div>
<div>欧美同步寒潮德国天然气消费激增TTF价格突破50美元</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item relative pl-8">
<div class="bg-green-50 rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="font-semibold text-green-600">2025年3月</div>
<div>寒潮延续至春季北京发布蓝色预警0℃线南压至秦岭</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 核心逻辑 -->
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-6 mb-8">
<div class="glass-morphism rounded-xl p-6 card-hover">
<div class="text-blue-500 text-4xl mb-4">
<i class="fas fa-cloud-showers-heavy"></i>
</div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-3">气象灾害冲击</h3>
<p class="text-gray-600">全国大部降温6-10℃局地超20℃官方定调"极端天气事件"</p>
<div class="mt-4 pt-4 border-t">
<span class="text-sm text-gray-500">东三省日耗从35万→60万吨/天</span>
</div>
</div>
<div class="glass-morphism rounded-xl p-6 card-hover">
<div class="text-purple-500 text-4xl mb-4">
<i class="fas fa-link"></i>
</div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-3">供应链脆弱性</h3>
<p class="text-gray-600">上游原料紧张、中游订单爆单、下游需求即时</p>
<div class="mt-4 pt-4 border-t">
<span class="text-sm text-gray-500">古麒绒材羽绒收入占比99.27%</span>
</div>
</div>
<div class="glass-morphism rounded-xl p-6 card-hover">
<div class="text-green-500 text-4xl mb-4">
<i class="fas fa-bolt"></i>
</div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-3">能源刚性需求</h3>
<p class="text-gray-600">空调制热+煤炭/天然气供暖叠加,需求非线性增长</p>
<div class="mt-4 pt-4 border-t">
<span class="text-sm text-gray-500">提前10天供暖多耗5000万吨煤</span>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 产业链分析 -->
<div class="glass-morphism rounded-2xl p-8 mb-8">
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold gradient-text mb-6">产业链四象限模型</h2>
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
<div class="bg-gradient-to-br from-blue-50 to-indigo-50 rounded-xl p-6">
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-blue-700 mb-4">能源链(需求强度:★★★★★)</h3>
<div class="space-y-2">
<div class="flex justify-between">
<span>上游资源:</span>
<span class="font-semibold">中国神华、陕西煤业</span>
</div>
<div class="flex justify-between">
<span>中游制造:</span>
<span class="font-semibold">古麒绒材</span>
</div>
<div class="flex justify-between">
<span>下游消费:</span>
<span class="font-semibold">波司登</span>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="bg-gradient-to-br from-green-50 to-emerald-50 rounded-xl p-6">
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-green-700 mb-4">设备链(需求强度:★★★★)</h3>
<div class="space-y-2">
<div class="flex justify-between">
<span>核心原料:</span>
<span class="font-semibold">棉花/鸭绒</span>
</div>
<div class="flex justify-between">
<span>热泵设备:</span>
<span class="font-semibold">日出东方、双良节能</span>
</div>
<div class="flex justify-between">
<span>终端零售:</span>
<span class="font-semibold">彩虹集团</span>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="bg-gradient-to-br from-purple-50 to-pink-50 rounded-xl p-6">
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-purple-700 mb-4">服务链(需求强度:★★★)</h3>
<div class="space-y-2">
<div class="flex justify-between">
<span>电力供应:</span>
<span class="font-semibold">华能、华电</span>
</div>
<div class="flex justify-between">
<span>智能温控:</span>
<span class="font-semibold">瑞纳智能</span>
</div>
<div class="flex justify-between">
<span>热力服务:</span>
<span class="font-semibold">联美控股</span>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="bg-gradient-to-br from-orange-50 to-yellow-50 rounded-xl p-6">
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-orange-700 mb-4">消费品链(需求强度:★★)</h3>
<div class="space-y-2">
<div class="flex justify-between">
<span>品牌服装:</span>
<span class="font-semibold">波司登、太平鸟</span>
</div>
<div class="flex justify-between">
<span>家居保暖:</span>
<span class="font-semibold">真爱美家</span>
</div>
<div class="flex justify-between">
<span>小家电:</span>
<span class="font-semibold">彩虹集团</span>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 股票数据表格 -->
<div class="glass-morphism rounded-2xl p-8 mb-8">
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold gradient-text mb-6">相关上市公司一览</h2>
<!-- Main Content Grid -->
<main class="space-y-12">
<!-- 供热/暖板块 -->
<div class="mb-8">
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-blue-600">
<i class="fas fa-fire mr-2"></i>供热/暖板块
<!-- Insight Section -->
<section id="insight" class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold mb-6 text-cyan-300 text-glow">
<span class="inline-block mr-2"></span>核心洞察:多维解析与投资启示
</h3>
<div class="stock-table">
<table class="table table-zebra table-compact w-full">
<thead>
<tr class="bg-blue-100">
<th>股票代码</th>
<th>公司名称</th>
<th>相关性描述</th>
<th>核心逻辑</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>联美控股</td>
<td>2025H1供暖及蒸汽收入14.16亿元占比74.62%</td>
<td>供暖收入占比高,直接受益寒潮</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>惠天热电</td>
<td>沈阳市大型专业供热上市公司2025H1供暖供热气11.66亿元占比96.35%</td>
<td>专业供热且收入占比极高</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>京能热力</td>
<td>实控人北京市国资委持股28.46%2025H1热力服务收入6.55亿元占比84.67%</td>
<td>国资控股保障,区域垄断性强</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>金房能源</td>
<td>2025H1供热行业6.55亿元占比97.59%北京地区占比62.11%</td>
<td>供热收入占比极高,区域集中</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>瑞纳智能</td>
<td>2025H1供热节能服务0.74亿元占比79.59%</td>
<td>智慧供暖,技术壁垒高</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 热泵板块 -->
<div class="mb-8">
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-green-600">
<i class="fas fa-temperature-high mr-2"></i>热泵板块
</h3>
<div class="stock-table">
<table class="table table-zebra table-compact w-full">
<thead>
<tr class="bg-green-100">
<th>股票代码</th>
<th>公司名称</th>
<th>相关性描述</th>
<th>核心逻辑</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>日出东方</td>
<td>推进以空气能热泵为龙头业务的战略布局空气能热泵产能10万套左右</td>
<td>热泵为核心业务西藏项目17.67亿</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>万和电气</td>
<td>2024年推出的R290热泵产品成为行业内的佼佼者</td>
<td>R290热泵技术领先</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>双良节能</td>
<td>中国最大的溴化锂制冷机、吸收式热泵和空冷器生产商和集成商</td>
<td>溴化锂热泵领域龙头</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>振邦智能</td>
<td>空气能热泵是公司主要产品智能电器控制器的主要应用之一</td>
<td>热泵控制器核心供应商</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 御寒产品板块 -->
<div class="mb-8">
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-purple-600">
<i class="fas fa-tshirt mr-2"></i>御寒产品板块
</h3>
<div class="stock-table">
<table class="table table-zebra table-compact w-full">
<thead>
<tr class="bg-purple-100">
<th>股票代码</th>
<th>公司名称</th>
<th>相关性描述</th>
<th>核心逻辑</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>古麒绒材</td>
<td>主要产品为高规格羽绒材料2025H1羽绒行业5.33亿元占比99.27%</td>
<td>最纯粹的羽绒原料标的</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>华英农业</td>
<td>2025H1羽绒13.55亿元占比65.43%</td>
<td>羽绒收入占比较高</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>真爱美家</td>
<td>2025H1毛毯3.45亿元占比88%,保暖性和舒适度高</td>
<td>毛毯收入占比极高</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>彩虹集团</td>
<td>电热毯行业龙头2025H1家用柔性取暖系列3.56亿元占比65.73%</td>
<td>电热毯龙头,需求反馈最快</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 能源板块 -->
<div class="mb-8">
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-orange-600">
<i class="fas fa-oil-can mr-2"></i>能源板块
</h3>
<div class="stock-table">
<table class="table table-zebra table-compact w-full">
<thead>
<tr class="bg-orange-100">
<th>股票代码</th>
<th>公司名称</th>
<th>相关性描述</th>
<th>核心逻辑</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>601088</td>
<td>中国神华</td>
<td>煤炭产业链龙头股息率4.8%</td>
<td>长协煤保供能力强,现金流稳定</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>601225</td>
<td>陕西煤业</td>
<td>煤炭产业链股息率4.5%</td>
<td>资源禀赋优秀,成本优势明显</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>600188</td>
<td>兖矿能源</td>
<td>煤炭产业链,澳洲产能占比高</td>
<td>受益国际煤价上涨,弹性大</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>601018</td>
<td>中煤能源</td>
<td>煤炭产业链,央企背景</td>
<td>产能规模大,保供主力</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>600997</td>
<td>开滦股份</td>
<td>焦炭产业链,煤焦一体化</td>
<td>焦煤涨价受益,弹性较好</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 投资策略 -->
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 mb-8">
<div class="glass-morphism rounded-xl p-6">
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-green-600">
<i class="fas fa-chess-rook mr-2"></i>操作策略
</h3>
<div class="space-y-4">
<div class="bg-green-50 rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="font-semibold mb-2">三日法则</div>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">每3日评估一次若数据未达预期立即减半</p>
<div class="space-y-8 text-slate-300 text-base leading-relaxed">
<div>
<h4 class="font-semibold text-lg text-sky-400 mb-2">0. 概念事件总览</h4>
<p>“寒潮”概念是一个典型的由自然天气事件驱动的、具有高度季节性和周期性的投资主题。其核心催化剂为国家级或大范围的强冷空气活动预警和实际发生,通过影响能源消耗、消费品需求、农业生产和交通运输等多个领域,从而在资本市场引发连锁反应。其激活路径清晰:<strong class="text-cyan-400">气象预警(催化)→ 媒体报道(发酵)→ 产业链价格/销量变化(验证)→ 资本市场股价反应(兑现)</strong></p>
</div>
<div class="bg-yellow-50 rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="font-semibold mb-2">止损纪律</div>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">买入3日内若下跌超5%,立即止损</p>
<div>
<h4 class="font-semibold text-lg text-sky-400 mb-2">1. 核心观点摘要</h4>
<p>“寒潮”概念是一个由<strong class="text-cyan-400">需求冲击</strong>驱动的、具备高确定性和短爆发力的<strong class="text-cyan-400">周期性交易主题</strong>。其核心驱动力在于气温骤降对能源(煤炭、天然气)的刚性消耗需求和对御寒消费品(服装、取暖设备)的瞬时脉冲式需求的双重拉动。当前,市场对这一逻辑已形成广泛共识,投资机会主要存在于<strong class="text-cyan-400">预期差的博弈</strong>(如寒潮强度、持续时间超预期)和<strong class="text-cyan-400">产业链利润传导的弹性环节</strong>(如上游原材料价格暴涨)。</p>
</div>
<div class="bg-blue-50 rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="font-semibold mb-2">仓位控制</div>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">主题配置不超过10%,卫星策略定位</p>
<div>
<h4 class="font-semibold text-lg text-sky-400 mb-2">2. 核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h4>
<p>寒潮概念的根本逻辑是“降温→需求激增”的直接传导,可拆分为三个层次:</p>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 pl-4">
<li><strong class="text-slate-100">能源领域的刚性需求:</strong>最核心稳固的逻辑。北方提前供暖、气温骤降直接推高天然气价格,并带动电厂煤炭库存快速去化,属非弹性需求,确定性极高。</li>
<li><strong class="text-slate-100">消费领域的脉冲式需求:</strong>“寒潮来袭羽绒服卖爆”现象反复验证。需求具备“准刚需”属性启动快、爆发力强能迅速体现在终端销售和上游原材料价格上如鸭绒价格短期暴涨超200%。</li>
<li><strong class="text-slate-100">特定领域的催化需求:</strong>以生猪养殖为例,寒潮是启动南方“腌腊、灌肠”消费场景的关键扳机,为特定农产品带来显著的阶段性需求提振。</li>
</ul>
<p class="mt-4">市场的预期差存在于:① 寒潮<strong class="text-cyan-400">强度与持续性</strong>的超预期;② 供给端<strong class="text-cyan-400">初始库存水平</strong>的预期差;③ 对建筑、农业等产业链<strong class="text-cyan-400">负面影响</strong>的忽略。</p>
</div>
<div>
<h4 class="font-semibold text-lg text-sky-400 mb-2">3. 产业链与核心公司剖析</h4>
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 pl-4">
<li><strong>上游 (资源与原材料):</strong> 能源开采(中国神华、首华燃气)、服装原料(古麒绒材、益客食品)。此环节价格弹性最高。</li>
<li><strong>中游 (生产与服务):</strong> 公用事业(惠天热电、京能热力)、设备制造(彩虹集团、日出东方)。此环节需求确定性高。</li>
<li><strong>下游 (消费与应用):</strong> 居民消费(服装家电)、工业电力(火电厂)。</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<h4 class="font-semibold text-lg text-sky-400 mb-2">4. 潜在风险与挑战</h4>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 pl-4">
<li><strong class="text-red-400">核心风险 (天气不确定性):</strong> “暖冬”是寒潮概念最大的“黑天鹅”,将导致底层逻辑失效。</li>
<li><strong class="text-red-400">商业化风险:</strong> 高库存将削弱需求拉动效果;企业“快反”能力不足可能错失销售窗口。</li>
<li><strong class="text-red-400">政策风险:</strong> 能源保供稳价政策可能限制企业超额收益。</li>
<li><strong class="text-red-400">结构性影响:</strong> 寒潮对经济总体影响是结构性的,在拉动能源消费的同时,会抑制室外开工(基建、地产),并非全面利好。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<h4 class="font-semibold text-lg text-sky-400 mb-2">5. 综合结论与投资启示</h4>
<p>“寒潮”概念本质上是<strong class="text-cyan-400">成熟的、可重复的事件驱动/主题炒作</strong>,属于战术性配置。投资窗口期短、爆发力强,核心在于把握“预期管理”和“时点选择”。</p>
<p class="mt-2">最具投资价值的细分环节:</p>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 pl-4">
<li><strong class="text-slate-100">上游能源/原材料 (高弹性):</strong> 天然气、羽绒等。供给相对刚性,需求爆发时价格弹性最大,最易出现超额收益。</li>
<li><strong class="text-slate-100">供热/公用事业 (高确定性):</strong> 城市供暖公司。需求极为刚性,业绩与天气关联度最高,防御性与主题性兼备。</li>
</ul>
<p class="mt-4">需重点跟踪的关键指标:① <strong class="text-cyan-400">领先指标:</strong> 中央气象台0℃线位置、预警颜色等级<strong class="text-cyan-400">同步指标:</strong> 电厂日耗煤量、LNG出厂价<strong class="text-cyan-400">验证指标:</strong> 重点服装零售数据、港口煤炭库存天数。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="glass-morphism rounded-xl p-6">
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-red-600">
<i class="fas fa-exclamation-triangle mr-2"></i>关键风险
</h3>
<div class="space-y-4">
<div class="bg-red-50 rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="font-semibold mb-2">可持续性风险</div>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">天气红利难持续,寒潮结束需求断崖</p>
</div>
<div class="bg-orange-50 rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="font-semibold mb-2">技术风险</div>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">热泵低温性能衰减,-10℃以下COP降至2.5</p>
</div>
<div class="bg-purple-50 rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="font-semibold mb-2">政策风险</div>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">保供压制煤价长协上限770元/吨</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 关键跟踪指标 -->
<div class="glass-morphism rounded-2xl p-8">
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold gradient-text mb-6">关键跟踪指标</h2>
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
<div class="bg-gradient-to-r from-red-500 to-orange-500 text-white rounded-xl p-6">
<div class="text-2xl font-bold mb-2">一级指标(每日)</div>
<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm">
<li>• 中央气象台预警等级</li>
<li>• 东三省电厂日耗(>60万吨</li>
<li>• 生猪日屠宰量(>17万头</li>
</section>
<!-- Market Dynamics Bento Grid -->
<section id="dynamics" class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6 md:gap-8">
<!-- Timeline -->
<div class="lg:col-span-1 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-6 text-cyan-300 text-glow">关键事件时间轴</h3>
<ul class="timeline timeline-compact timeline-vertical">
<li>
<div class="timeline-start timeline-box glass text-sm"><strong>2024.10-11月 (冬季前奏)</strong><br>下半年首场寒潮来袭,中央气象台密集预警,羽绒服销售及原料价格暴涨,概念正式启动。</div>
<div class="timeline-middle">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="w-5 h-5 text-primary"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.137-.089l4-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
</div>
<hr class="bg-primary"/>
</li>
<li>
<hr class="bg-primary"/>
<div class="timeline-middle">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="w-5 h-5 text-primary"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.137-.089l4-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
</div>
<div class="timeline-end timeline-box glass text-sm"><strong>2025.01-03月 (冬季高峰)</strong><br>全国性寒潮爆发中国气象局启动Ⅲ级应急响应。农业部部署防寒工作。“倒春寒”现象突出局地降温超20℃。</div>
<hr class="bg-primary"/>
</li>
<li>
<hr class="bg-primary"/>
<div class="timeline-middle">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="w-5 h-5 text-primary"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.137-.089l4-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
</div>
<div class="timeline-start timeline-box glass text-sm"><strong>2025.10-11月 (新轮预期)</strong><br>市场开始交易新一轮冬季预期,路演强调新寒潮与冬季用煤高峰的“无缝衔接”,提前布局迹象明显。</div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="bg-gradient-to-r from-blue-500 to-indigo-500 text-white rounded-xl p-6">
<div class="text-2xl font-bold mb-2">二级指标(每周)</div>
<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm">
<li>• 秦皇岛港库存(<500万吨</li>
<li>• 羽绒原料价格指数(周涨>5%</li>
<li>• 小家电换手率(>5%</li>
</ul>
<!-- ECharts & Perspectives -->
<div class="lg:col-span-2 space-y-6 md:space-y-8">
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-cyan-300 text-glow">核心数据看点:羽绒价格飙升</h3>
<p class="text-sm text-slate-400 mb-4">新闻数据显示受寒潮影响90%白鸭绒价格从17万元/吨暴涨至58万元/吨涨幅超240%,直观体现了上游原料环节的巨大价格弹性。</p>
<div id="featherPriceChart" style="width: 100%; height: 250px;"></div>
</div>
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8" x-data="{ tab: 'news' }">
<div class="flex items-center justify-between mb-4">
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-cyan-300 text-glow">多源视角</h3>
<div class="tabs tabs-boxed bg-slate-900/50">
<a class="tab tab-sm" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'news'}" @click.prevent="tab = 'news'">新闻精粹</a>
<a class="tab tab-sm" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'roadshow'}" @click.prevent="tab = 'roadshow'">路演观点</a>
<a class="tab tab-sm" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'report'}" @click.prevent="tab = 'report'">研报摘要</a>
</div>
</div>
<div class="text-sm space-y-2 leading-relaxed min-h-[150px]">
<div x-show="tab === 'news'">
<p><span class="badge badge-info badge-outline mr-2">需求爆发</span>【寒潮来袭羽绒服棉衣卖爆了】大幅降温带动保暖产品销售增长,鹅绒加工企业处于爆单状态。</p>
<p><span class="badge badge-error badge-outline mr-2">价格传导</span>【羽绒价格狂飙】1吨鸭绒从17万元涨到58万元成本飙升致正规厂家出厂价逼近千元。</p>
<p><span class="badge badge-warning badge-outline mr-2">官方应对</span>【农业农村部部署抗干旱防寒潮工作】指导地方紧盯雨雪寒潮天气过程,做好防寒保暖,确保农业生产安全。</p>
</div>
<div x-show="tab === 'roadshow'" style="display: none;">
<p><span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline mr-2">国君农业</span>生猪等待<strong class="text-white">寒潮</strong>,是腌腊需求的重要触发点,价格拐点依赖寒潮。</p>
<p><span class="badge badge-success badge-outline mr-2">昊华能源</span>2025年首轮大<strong class="text-white">寒潮</strong>已抵达,影响广、强度大、持续长,可无缝衔接冬季用煤高峰。</p>
<p><span class="badge badge-warning badge-outline mr-2">德邦宏观</span><strong class="text-white">冬季寒潮</strong>推高欧美天然气价格,间接支撑原油需求。寒潮风险未消,油价中枢或维持高位。</p>
</div>
<div x-show="tab === 'report'" style="display: none;">
<p><span class="badge badge-info badge-outline mr-2">波司登研报</span><strong class="text-white">寒潮天气</strong>预计将有助于提升公司羽绒服品类的销售表现。但存在“暖冬风险”。</p>
<p><span class="badge badge-primary badge-outline mr-2">煤焦研报</span><strong class="text-white">寒潮再临</strong>,煤价短期或有支撑。港口及电厂库存持续去化,结合寒潮支撑需求。</p>
<p><span class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline mr-2">年度策略</span><strong class="text-white">“寒潮未尽,春山可望”</strong>比喻经济挑战与复苏预期,寓意经济正经历寒冬,但春天已在望。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="bg-gradient-to-r from-green-500 to-teal-500 text-white rounded-xl p-6">
<div class="text-2xl font-bold mb-2">三级指标(每月)</div>
<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm">
<li>• 天猫京东羽绒服销量</li>
<li>• 企业月度经营数据</li>
<li>• 能源库存变动</li>
</ul>
</section>
<!-- Market Reaction & Key Stocks -->
<section id="stocks" class="space-y-8">
<div>
<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold mb-6 text-cyan-300 text-glow text-center">
<span class="inline-block mr-2"></span>市场异动解析
</h3>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-6 hover:shadow-cyan-500/20 hover:shadow-lg transition-shadow duration-300">
<div class="flex justify-between items-center mb-2">
<h4 class="text-lg font-bold text-white">益客食品 (301116)</h4>
<span class="font-bold text-xl text-red-400">+19.98%</span>
</div>
<div class="text-sm prose text-slate-300">
<p><strong>核心结论:</strong> 寒潮+禽流感双重冲击导致羽绒价格单日跳涨240%,公司低库存+高销量弹性被资金瞬间定价至涨停。</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-6 hover:shadow-cyan-500/20 hover:shadow-lg transition-shadow duration-300">
<div class="flex justify-between items-center mb-2">
<h4 class="text-lg font-bold text-white">首华燃气 (300483)</h4>
<span class="font-bold text-xl text-red-400">+20.0%</span>
</div>
<div class="text-sm prose text-slate-300">
<p><strong>核心结论:</strong> 寒潮突袭+政策催化双重利好下资金抢筹A股唯一整装深煤层气民营标的现货涨价与政策期权共振封板。</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-6 hover:shadow-cyan-500/20 hover:shadow-lg transition-shadow duration-300">
<div class="flex justify-between items-center mb-2">
<h4 class="text-lg font-bold text-white">九牧王 (601566)</h4>
<span class="font-bold text-xl text-red-400">+9.99%</span>
</div>
<div class="text-sm prose text-slate-300">
<p><strong>核心结论:</strong> “福建自贸区+寒潮+服装CPI转正”三因子共振叠加高控盘小市值触发多日连板。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold mb-6 text-cyan-300 text-glow text-center">
<span class="inline-block mr-2">🛰️</span>概念关联个股全览
</h3>
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-2xl">
<table class="table table-sm md:table-md">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="w-1/4">股票名称</th>
<th class="w-1/4">核心逻辑</th>
<th class="w-1/4">其他标签</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-bold text-white">联美控股 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600167" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600167</a>)</td><td>公司2025H1供暖及蒸汽收入14.16亿元占比74.62%</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">供暖</div></td></tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-bold text-white">惠天热电 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000692" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000692</a>)</td><td>沈阳市大型专业供热上市公司2025H1供暖供气11.66亿元占比96.35%</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">供暖</div></td></tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-bold text-white">京能热力 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002893" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002893</a>)</td><td>实控人北京市国资委2025H1热力服务收入6.55亿元占比84.67%</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">供暖</div></td></tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-bold text-white">日出东方 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603366" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">603366</a>)</td><td>推进以空气能热泵为龙头业务的战略布局空气能热泵产能10万套左右</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">热泵</div></td></tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-bold text-white">古麒绒材 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=001390" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">001390</a>)</td><td>公司主要产品为高规格羽绒材料2025H1羽绒行业5.33亿元占比99.27%</td><td><div class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">羽绒</div></td></tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-bold text-white">华英农业 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002321" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002321</a>)</td><td>2025H1羽绒13.55亿元占比65.43%</td><td><div class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">羽绒</div></td></tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-bold text-white">彩虹集团 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=003023" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">003023</a>)</td><td>电热毯行业龙头2025H1家用柔性取暖系列3.56亿元占比65.73%</td><td><div class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">电热毯</div></td></tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-bold text-white">中国神华 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601088" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">601088</a>)</td><td>煤炭行业龙头公司,受益于冬季供暖用煤需求增加</td><td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">煤炭</div></td></tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-bold text-white">昊华能源 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601101" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">601101</a>)</td><td>煤炭行业相关公司,路演提及寒潮与用煤高峰无缝衔接</td><td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">煤炭</div></td></tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-bold text-white">美锦能源 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000723" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000723</a>)</td><td>焦炭行业相关公司,为冬季工业生产提供能源</td><td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">焦炭</div></td></tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-bold text-white">贵州燃气 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600903" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600903</a>)</td><td>城市燃气行业相关公司,受益于居民及工业采暖需求</td><td><div class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline">城市燃气</div></td></tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50"><td class="font-bold text-white">胜利股份 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000407" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000407</a>)</td><td>城市燃气行业相关公司,受益于居民及工业采暖需求</td><td><div class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline">城市燃气</div></td></tr>
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<p class="mb-2">寒潮投资概念解析 - 数据更新至2025年</p>
<p class="text-sm opacity-75">本内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议</p>
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