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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<title>深度投研报告：无人驾驶公交</title>
<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.10.2/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
<script defer src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js"></script>
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com">
<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.gstatic.com" crossorigin>
<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Sora:wght@300;400;600;700&display=swap" rel="stylesheet">
<style>
body {
font-family: 'Sora', 'Noto Sans SC', sans-serif;
background-color: #05050A;
color: #E0E0E0;
overflow-x: hidden;
background-image:
radial-gradient(circle at 15% 15%, rgba(100, 120, 255, 0.15) 0%, transparent 40%),
radial-gradient(circle at 85% 75%, rgba(0, 255, 200, 0.1) 0%, transparent 40%);
background-attachment: fixed;
}
.glass-card {
background: rgba(20, 20, 40, 0.5);
backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
transition: all 0.3s ease;
}
.glass-card:hover {
transform: translateY(-5px);
box-shadow: 0 10px 30px rgba(0, 255, 255, 0.1);
}
.glow-text {
text-shadow: 0 0 8px rgba(0, 200, 255, 0.7);
}
.bento-grid {
display: grid;
gap: 1rem;
grid-template-columns: repeat(12, 1fr);
}
.bento-item {
border-radius: 1.5rem;
padding: 1.5rem;
}
.col-span-12 { grid-column: span 12; }
.col-span-8 { grid-column: span 8; }
.col-span-6 { grid-column: span 6; }
.col-span-4 { grid-column: span 4; }
@media (max-width: 1024px) {
.col-span-8 { grid-column: span 12; }
.col-span-6 { grid-column: span 12; }
.col-span-4 { grid-column: span 12; }
}
.tab-lifted {
border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1) !important;
}
.tab-lifted.tab-active {
background-color: rgba(20, 20, 40, 0.5) !important;
border-bottom-color: transparent !important;
}
</style>
</head>
<body class="antialiased">
<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
<!-- Header -->
<header class="text-center mb-12">
<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold glow-text bg-clip-text text-transparent bg-gradient-to-r from-cyan-400 to-violet-500 mb-2">
无人驾驶公交
</h1>
<p class="text-lg text-gray-400">深度投研报告</p>
</header>
<!-- Bento Grid Dashboard -->
<section class="mb-12">
<div class="bento-grid">
<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-8">
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-2">核心观点</h3>
<p class="text-gray-300">无人驾驶公交正处“<strong class="text-white">政策驱动下的商业化试点初期</strong>”。核心驱动力源于政府对智慧交通的战略布局和劳动力短缺的远期应对，而非当前纯粹的商业经济性。市场认知与商业现实之间存在显著预期差，短期面临高昂成本、模糊盈利模式及“车内安全员”法规限制三大核心瓶瓶颈。</p>
</div>
<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-4">
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-2">市场现状</h3>
<ul class="space-y-2 text-gray-300">
<li><span class="text-white font-semibold">20+</span> 城市已推出自动驾驶公交服务</li>
<li><span class="text-white font-semibold">L4级</span> 自动驾驶标准已在多地试运行</li>
<li><span class="text-white font-semibold">固定/半封闭路线</span> 为当前主流应用场景</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-6">
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-2">关键预期差分析</h3>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-300">
<li><strong>“无人”的误解:</strong> 当前法规要求<strong class="text-red-400">“公交等车辆仍需本地安全员”</strong>，无法实现核心降本。</li>
<li><strong>成本与盈利的鸿沟:</strong> 6米级无人公交单价近<strong class="text-red-400">100万元</strong>，远高于Robotaxi的20万元，盈利困难。</li>
<li><strong>试点与规模化的差距:</strong> 多地试点 ≠ 商业化销售，头部企业预计<strong class="text-red-400">2025年仍无法大规模推广</strong>。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-6" id="key-events-timeline-chart" style="height: 300px;">
<!-- ECharts will render here -->
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Core Logic & Market Perception -->
<section class="mb-12">
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<h2 class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-6">核心逻辑与市场认知</h2>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
<div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-white mb-3">三大核心驱动力</h3>
<ol class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-3 text-gray-300">
<li><strong class="text-cyan-400">政策强力驱动:</strong> 从国家《服务指南》到地方立法（广/上/京），为上路权和商业化探索扫清初步障碍，并指明了远程安全员（人车比≥1:3）的未来方向。</li>
<li><strong class="text-cyan-400">技术成熟度提升:</strong> L4技术已在固定路线得到验证，安全性宣称高于人类驾驶员10倍以上。天津项目车辆配备4激光雷达、2毫米波雷达、16摄像头，技术可行性已初步确立。</li>
<li><strong class="text-cyan-400">远期经济与社会价值:</strong> 旨在解决司机老龄化、招工难问题，提升车辆利用率。新能源公交补贴政策（平均每辆车补贴8万元）也为采购提供了间接支持。</li>
</ol>
</div>
<div id="vehicle-cost-comparison-chart" style="height: 300px;">
<!-- ECharts will render here -->
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Catalysts & Roadmap -->
<section class="mb-12">
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<h2 class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-6">关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h2>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
<div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-white mb-3">近期催化剂 (3-6个月)</h3>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-300">
<li><strong>政策修订:</strong> 移除或放宽“本地安全员”要求将是引爆概念的最强催化剂。</li>
<li><strong>标杆盈利:</strong> 武汉Robotaxi若如期实现盈亏平衡，将极大提振行业信心。</li>
<li><strong>成本下降:</strong> 龙头企业发布成本显著下降的新一代车型（如50万以内）。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-white mb-3">长期发展路径</h3>
<div class="space-y-4">
<div class="p-4 bg-gray-800/50 rounded-xl border border-gray-700">
<p class="font-bold text-cyan-400">阶段一 (当前-2026): 示范运营</p>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">固定路线、带安全员运营，核心目标是技术验证和数据积累。</p>
</div>
<div class="p-4 bg-gray-800/50 rounded-xl border border-gray-700">
<p class="font-bold text-cyan-400">阶段二 (2026-2028): 去安全员</p>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">关键政策落地，成本大幅下降，出现首批盈利线路。</p>
</div>
<div class="p-4 bg-gray-800/50 rounded-xl border border-gray-700">
<p class="font-bold text-cyan-400">阶段三 (2028+): 规模化推广</p>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">“车路云一体化”普及，扩展到区域性网络运营。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Industry Chain & Players -->
<section class="mb-12">
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<h2 class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-6">产业链与核心公司剖析</h2>
<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row gap-8 mb-8 text-center">
<div class="flex-1 p-4 bg-slate-800/50 rounded-xl border border-slate-700">
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-violet-400">上游：核心软硬件</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">感知系统 (激光雷达)、决策系统 (算法)、执行系统 (线控底盘)、V2X设备</p>
</div>
<div class="text-2xl self-center text-gray-500 mx-2">&rarr;</div>
<div class="flex-1 p-4 bg-slate-800/50 rounded-xl border border-slate-700">
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-cyan-400">中游：整车制造</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">客车OEM (宇通、金龙、中通)，负责技术集成与车辆制造</p>
</div>
<div class="text-2xl self-center text-gray-500 mx-2">&rarr;</div>
<div class="flex-1 p-4 bg-slate-800/50 rounded-xl border border-slate-700">
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-emerald-400">下游：运营服务</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">传统公交集团、潜在新运营商 (海汽集团)</p>
</div>
</div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-white mb-4">核心玩家对比</h3>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-4 gap-4">
<div class="p-4 bg-gray-800/70 rounded-xl">
<h5 class="font-bold">宇通客车 (600066)</h5>
<p class="text-sm text-cyan-300">领导者与实干派</p>
<p class="text-xs mt-2 text-gray-400">起步早，有实际量产L4公交落地运营，与文远知行深度合作，逻辑纯粹度最高。</p>
</div>
<div class="p-4 bg-gray-800/70 rounded-xl">
<h5 class="font-bold">金龙汽车 (600686)</h5>
<p class="text-sm text-yellow-400">开拓者与现实派</p>
<p class="text-xs mt-2 text-gray-400">与百度合作"阿波龙"有先发优势，但路演揭示商业化困境，存在预期差风险。</p>
</div>
<div class="p-4 bg-gray-800/70 rounded-xl">
<h5 class="font-bold">金溢科技 (GenVICT)</h5>
<p class="text-sm text-emerald-400">关键赋能者</p>
<p class="text-xs mt-2 text-gray-400">提供车路云产品，是“车路云一体化”政策核心受益者，扮演“卖水人”角色。</p>
</div>
<div class="p-4 bg-gray-800/70 rounded-xl">
<h5 class="font-bold">海汽集团 (Haiqi Group)</h5>
<p class="text-sm text-rose-400">故事与预期差</p>
<p class="text-xs mt-2 text-gray-400">市场赋予“垄断海南运营”巨大预期，但缺乏落地合同，不确定性极大。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Supporting Data -->
<section class="mb-12" x-data="{ tab: 'news' }">
<div role="tablist" class="tabs tabs-lifted mb-[-1px]">
<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'news' }" @click="tab = 'news'">新闻数据</a>
<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'roadshow' }" @click="tab = 'roadshow'">路演纪要</a>
<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'research' }" @click="tab = 'research'">研报观点</a>
</div>
<div class="glass-card rounded-tl-none rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<div x-show="tab === 'news'">
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-white">已落地运营和测试项目</h3>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-300">
<li><strong>宇通客车&文远知行:</strong> L3/L4级无人驾驶公交已在郑州、广州、南京等多城市落地运营。</li>
<li><strong>天津:</strong> L4级智能驾驶车辆启动载人试运行，车长5.5米，无驾驶室。</li>
<li><strong>济南:</strong> BRT专线将应用无人驾驶，山东首次部署大车型无人驾驶公交。</li>
<li><strong>海南海口:</strong> 机场巴士已开始无人运营，7月18日上线。</li>
<li><strong>政策支持:</strong> 广州市立法支持智能网联汽车在公交、出租车场景应用。</li>
<li><strong>行业趋势:</strong> 全国已有20多个城市推出自动驾驶公交服务。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div x-show="tab === 'roadshow'">
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-white">市场、政策与成本洞察</h3>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-300">
<li><strong>车型趋势:</strong> 出现小型化，6米级无人驾驶车型开始推广，单价近100万元。</li>
<li><strong>法规限制:</strong> 政策明确L4级车辆可无安全员，但<strong class="text-red-400">公交等车辆仍需本地安全员</strong>。</li>
<li><strong>厂商进展(金龙汽车):</strong> 累计在50+城市试运行，但尚未实现商业化销售，预计2025年仍无法大规模推广。</li>
<li><strong>商业化观点(百度):</strong> 卡车/公交场景虽然简化，但<strong class="text-red-400">盈利困难</strong>。</li>
<li><strong>成本参考(Robotaxi):</strong> 第六代车型成本降至20-25万元区间，为长期降本提供路径参考。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div x-show="tab === 'research'">
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-white">政策环境与技术趋势</h3>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-300">
<li><strong>地方政策:</strong> 北京拟支持自动驾驶汽车用于城市公共电汽车客运；上海明确开展智能公交规模化应用。</li>
<li><strong>国家政策:</strong> 交通运输部允许L4/L5自动驾驶汽车开展城市客运服务，并允许使用远程安全员（人车比≥1:3）。</li>
<li><strong>应用现状(福州):</strong> 已有2辆无人驾驶MINI巴士和6辆无人驾驶公交车进行测试。</li>
<li><strong>技术对标:</strong> 无人驾驶公交可视为Robotaxi在公共交通领域的延伸，其技术、政策、商业化进展高度重合。</li>
<li><strong>成本与经济性:</strong> Robotaxi成本大幅下降（百度第六代仅20万元），且无需司机，可节省约50%的运营成本，为公交场景提供远期经济模型。</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Stock Tables -->
<section class="mb-12">
<h2 class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-6 text-center">核心概念股梳理</h2>
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-3xl p-4">
<table class="table table-zebra bg-transparent w-full">
<thead>
<tr class="text-white">
<th class="bg-transparent">股票名称</th>
<th class="bg-transparent">股票代码</th>
<th class="bg-transparent">核心逻辑</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>宇通客车</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600066" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600066</a></td>
<td>L4级无人驾驶小巴已在多地落地运营，与文远知行深度合作，是行业龙头和技术先行者。</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>中通客车</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000957" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000957</a></td>
<td>智能驾驶客车已达L4级水平，并实现开放道路测试，为济南无人公交供应商之一。</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>金龙汽车</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600686" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600686</a></td>
<td>与百度合作的L4级“阿波龙”是中国首款量产无人驾驶巴士，具有先发优势和品牌认知度。</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>安凯客车</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000868" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000868</a></td>
<td>无人驾驶智能公交车在深圳首发并示范运行，为国内首款在开放道路运行的无人驾驶智能公交车。</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>雄帝科技</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300546" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">300546</a></td>
<td>车载智能终端集成AI技术，具备辅助智能驾驶能力，在智慧公交终端设备市场份额领先。</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>天迈科技</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300807" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">300807</a></td>
<td>为宇通客车提供远程监控系统，并开发了营运车辆主动安全辅助驾驶系统。</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</section>
<section class="mb-12">
<h2 class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-6 text-center">相关概念异动股分析</h2>
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-3xl p-4">
<table class="table table-zebra bg-transparent w-full">
<thead>
<tr class="text-white">
<th class="bg-transparent">股票名称</th>
<th class="bg-transparent">股票代码</th>
<th class="bg-transparent">异动日期</th>
<th class="bg-transparent">驱动逻辑简述</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>威帝股份</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603023" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">603023</a></td>
<td>2025-08-12</td>
<td>厦门国资委拟注入车联网/无人驾驶资产，并锁定3000辆L4无人巴士订单，触发“国企改革+车联网”双重主题。</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>永安行</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603776" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">603776</a></td>
<td>2025-06-24</td>
<td>受益于特斯拉Robotaxi服务落地带来的无人驾驶概念炒作，叠加公司自身在智能交通领域的业务布局。</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>锦江在线</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600650" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600650</a></td>
<td>2025-07-23</td>
<td>作为上海无人驾驶出租车试点单位，其牌照资源的稀缺性凸显，叠加政策催化预期。</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>福龙马</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603686" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">603686</a></td>
<td>2025-09-18</td>
<td>公告签订28亿“全域无人驾驶环卫服务”+15亿“L4级车辆采购”大单，锁定未来收入与现金流。</td>
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