update pay ui
This commit is contained in:
@@ -1,567 +1,425 @@
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北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现，本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。
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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN">
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>涤纶长丝行业分析 - 金融视角</title>
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/bootstrap@5.3.0/dist/css/bootstrap.min.css" rel="stylesheet">
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<link rel="stylesheet" href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/bootstrap-icons@1.10.0/font/bootstrap-icons.css">
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<title>涤纶长丝 - 深度行业研究报告</title>
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.10.1/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
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<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.13.10/dist/cdn.min.js" defer></script>
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<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
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<style>
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:root {
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--primary-color: #1a73e8;
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--secondary-color: #34a853;
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--accent-color: #ea4335;
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--light-bg: #f8f9fa;
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--dark-text: #202124;
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}
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@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:wght@300;400;500;600;700&family=Space+Grotesk:wght@400;500;700&display=swap');
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body {
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font-family: 'Segoe UI', Tahoma, Geneva, Verdana, sans-serif;
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color: var(--dark-text);
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background-color: #f0f2f5;
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font-family: 'Inter', sans-serif;
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background-color: #000000;
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background-image:
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radial-gradient(ellipse 80% 50% at 50% -20%, rgba(120, 119, 198, 0.3), transparent),
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radial-gradient(ellipse 80% 50% at 50% 120%, rgba(39, 119, 198, 0.3), transparent);
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background-attachment: fixed;
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color: #E2E8F0; /* slate-200 */
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}
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.glass-card {
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background: rgba(15, 23, 42, 0.5); /* slate-900 with alpha */
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backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
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-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
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border: 1px solid rgba(56, 189, 248, 0.2); /* sky-400 with alpha */
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border-radius: 1.5rem; /* 24px */
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transition: all 0.3s ease-in-out;
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}
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.glass-card:hover {
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border-color: rgba(56, 189, 248, 0.5);
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box-shadow: 0 0 30px rgba(56, 189, 248, 0.2);
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}
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.bento-grid {
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display: grid;
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gap: 1rem;
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grid-template-columns: repeat(12, 1fr);
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grid-auto-rows: auto;
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}
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.hero-section {
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, #1a73e8 0%, #34a853 100%);
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color: white;
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padding: 3rem 0;
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margin-bottom: 2rem;
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border-radius: 0 0 20px 20px;
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.grid-item-header {
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grid-column: span 12;
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}
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.grid-item-main {
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grid-column: span 12;
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md:grid-column: span 8;
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}
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.card {
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border: none;
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border-radius: 12px;
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box-shadow: 0 4px 6px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.05);
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transition: transform 0.3s ease, box-shadow 0.3s ease;
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margin-bottom: 1.5rem;
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.grid-item-side {
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grid-column: span 12;
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md:grid-column: span 4;
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}
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.grid-item-full {
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grid-column: span 12;
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}
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.grid-item-half {
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grid-column: span 12;
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lg:grid-column: span 6;
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}
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.glow-text {
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text-shadow: 0 0 8px rgba(56, 189, 248, 0.5);
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}
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.card:hover {
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transform: translateY(-5px);
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box-shadow: 0 10px 20px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);
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.section-title {
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font-family: 'Space Grotesk', sans-serif;
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font-size: 2rem;
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font-weight: 700;
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letter-spacing: -0.05em;
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background: linear-gradient(90deg, #F8FAFC, #94A3B8);
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-webkit-background-clip: text;
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-webkit-text-fill-color: transparent;
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}
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.card-header {
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background-color: var(--primary-color);
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color: white;
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border-radius: 12px 12px 0 0 !important;
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.subsection-title {
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font-family: 'Space Grotesk', sans-serif;
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font-size: 1.25rem;
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font-weight: 600;
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color: #93c5fd; /* blue-300 */
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border-left: 3px solid #38bdf8; /* sky-400 */
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padding-left: 0.75rem;
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}
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.timeline-item {
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position: relative;
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padding-left: 30px;
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margin-bottom: 20px;
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.highlight-badge {
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display: inline-block;
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background-color: rgba(56, 189, 248, 0.1);
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color: #7dd3fc; /* sky-300 */
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padding: 0.25rem 0.75rem;
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border-radius: 9999px;
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font-size: 0.875rem;
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font-weight: 500;
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border: 1px solid rgba(56, 189, 248, 0.2);
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}
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.timeline-item:before {
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content: '';
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position: absolute;
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left: 0;
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top: 5px;
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width: 12px;
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height: 12px;
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border-radius: 50%;
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background-color: var(--primary-color);
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/* Custom scrollbar for better aesthetics */
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::-webkit-scrollbar {
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width: 8px;
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}
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.timeline-item:after {
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content: '';
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position: absolute;
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left: 5px;
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top: 17px;
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width: 2px;
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height: calc(100% + 10px);
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background-color: #ddd;
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::-webkit-scrollbar-track {
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background: transparent;
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}
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.timeline-item:last-child:after {
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display: none;
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::-webkit-scrollbar-thumb {
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background: rgba(56, 189, 248, 0.3);
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border-radius: 4px;
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}
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.table {
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border-radius: 12px;
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overflow: hidden;
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}
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.table thead {
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background-color: var(--primary-color);
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color: white;
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}
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.table tbody tr:nth-child(even) {
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background-color: rgba(26, 115, 232, 0.05);
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}
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.badge {
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font-size: 0.85em;
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padding: 0.5em 0.8em;
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}
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.highlight {
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background-color: rgba(26, 115, 232, 0.1);
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border-left: 4px solid var(--primary-color);
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padding: 15px;
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margin: 15px 0;
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border-radius: 0 8px 8px 0;
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}
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.key-point {
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display: flex;
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align-items: center;
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margin-bottom: 10px;
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}
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.key-point i {
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color: var(--primary-color);
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margin-right: 10px;
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}
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.stock-table-container {
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overflow-x: auto;
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}
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@media (max-width: 768px) {
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.hero-section {
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padding: 2rem 0;
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}
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.card {
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margin-bottom: 1rem;
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}
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.table {
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font-size: 0.9rem;
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}
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::-webkit-scrollbar-thumb:hover {
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background: rgba(56, 189, 248, 0.5);
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body>
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<!-- Hero Section -->
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<div class="hero-section">
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<div class="container">
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<div class="row align-items-center">
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<div class="col-lg-8">
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<h1 class="display-4 fw-bold mb-3">涤纶长丝行业分析</h1>
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<p class="lead">供给侧收缩+需求边际改善+成本支撑强化的三重驱动阶段</p>
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<div class="d-flex flex-wrap mt-4">
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<span class="badge bg-light text-dark me-2 mb-2"><i class="bi bi-graph-up"></i> 行业上行周期</span>
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<span class="badge bg-light text-dark me-2 mb-2"><i class="bi bi-building"></i> 集中度提升</span>
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<span class="badge bg-light text-dark me-2 mb-2"><i class="bi bi-currency-dollar"></i> 盈利修复</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="col-lg-4 text-center">
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<div class="bg-white bg-opacity-25 rounded-4 p-4">
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<h2 class="mb-1">2024</h2>
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<p class="mb-0">行业拐点之年</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<body class="min-h-screen p-4 sm:p-6 md:p-8">
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<div class="container mb-5">
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<!-- 概念事件 -->
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<div class="card">
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<div class="card-header">
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<h3 class="mb-0"><i class="bi bi-calendar-event me-2"></i>概念事件</h3>
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</div>
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<div class="card-body">
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<p>涤纶长丝是聚酯产业链的核心环节，主要用于纺织服装、产业用纺织品等领域。2024年以来，行业经历多重催化：</p>
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<div class="row mt-4">
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<div class="col-md-4 mb-3">
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<div class="card h-100 border-0 shadow-sm">
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<div class="card-body text-center">
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<i class="bi bi-arrow-down-circle-fill text-danger fs-1 mb-3"></i>
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<h5>供给侧收缩</h5>
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<p>头部企业联合减产，锅炉改造、环保限产等政策，短期供给收缩明显</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="col-md-4 mb-3">
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<div class="card h-100 border-0 shadow-sm">
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<div class="card-body text-center">
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<i class="bi bi-arrow-up-circle-fill text-success fs-1 mb-3"></i>
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<h5>需求边际改善</h5>
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<p>国内纺织服装消费回暖，海外订单回暖，需求端边际修复</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="col-md-4 mb-3">
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<div class="card h-100 border-0 shadow-sm">
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<div class="card-body text-center">
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<i class="bi bi-cash-stack text-warning fs-1 mb-3"></i>
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<h5>成本支撑强化</h5>
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<p>原油价格在70-80美元/桶区间震荡，PTA、MEG等原料成本高位运行</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<h5 class="mt-4 mb-3">时间轴关键节点</h5>
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<div class="timeline">
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<strong>2024年Q1</strong>：行业开启主动减产，桐昆宣布2024年减产10%
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<strong>2024年Q2</strong>：库存去化加速，POY、DTY价差环比扩大
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<strong>2024年Q3</strong>：需求旺季验证，金九银十带动订单回升
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<strong>2024年Q4</strong>：行业进入旺季预期阶段，市场对2025年供给格局优化预期升温
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto">
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<!-- 核心观点摘要 -->
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<div class="card">
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<div class="card-header">
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<h3 class="mb-0"><i class="bi bi-lightbulb me-2"></i>核心观点摘要</h3>
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</div>
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<div class="card-body">
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<div class="highlight">
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<p class="mb-0">涤纶长丝行业正处于<strong>供给侧收缩+需求边际改善+成本支撑强化</strong>的三重驱动阶段，短期库存去化加速，中长期受益于行业集中度提升和产能有序扩张，盈利水平有望持续修复。建议重点关注具备成本优势、产能协同性强的龙头企业。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="row mt-4">
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<div class="col-md-6">
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<div class="key-point">
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<i class="bi bi-check-circle-fill"></i>
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<span>供给侧收缩主导：主动减产+政策约束+行业自律</span>
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</div>
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<div class="key-point">
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<i class="bi bi-check-circle-fill"></i>
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<span>需求边际改善：内需复苏+外需回暖</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="col-md-6">
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<div class="key-point">
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<i class="bi bi-check-circle-fill"></i>
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<span>成本支撑强化：原油价格高位震荡+加工费修复</span>
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</div>
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<div class="key-point">
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<i class="bi bi-check-circle-fill"></i>
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||||
<span>市场热度高企：短期情绪乐观，主线逻辑清晰</span>
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||||
</div>
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||||
</div>
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||||
</div>
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||||
</div>
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||||
</div>
|
||||
<!-- Header -->
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||||
<header class="text-center mb-12">
|
||||
<h1 class="section-title text-4xl md:text-5xl lg:text-6xl mb-2">涤纶长丝</h1>
|
||||
<p class="text-slate-400 text-lg">深度行业研究报告</p>
|
||||
<p class="text-xs text-slate-500 mt-2">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研”</p>
|
||||
</header>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- 核心逻辑与市场认知分析 -->
|
||||
<div class="card">
|
||||
<div class="card-header">
|
||||
<h3 class="mb-0"><i class="bi bi-diagram-3 me-2"></i>核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h3>
|
||||
<!-- Bento Grid Layout -->
|
||||
<div class="grid grid-cols-12 gap-6">
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- Core Viewpoint -->
|
||||
<div class="col-span-12 glass-card p-6">
|
||||
<h2 class="subsection-title mb-4">核心观点摘要</h2>
|
||||
<p class="text-slate-300 leading-relaxed">
|
||||
涤纶长丝概念正处在一个关键的<span class="text-sky-300 font-semibold">转型博弈期</span>，其核心驱动力已从过去的需求拉动，转变为由头部企业主导的<span class="font-bold text-transparent bg-clip-text bg-gradient-to-r from-sky-300 to-fuchsia-400">供给侧“反内卷”协同</span>。当前，市场正见证一个高度集中的传统制造业，试图通过寡头垄断的逻辑重塑行业生态并修复盈利能力。其未来潜力完全取决于龙头企业间脆弱的“协同纪律”能否战胜疲弱的下游需求和高企的库存压力，这是一场典型的<span class="text-amber-300">“意愿”与“现实”的较量</span>。
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="card-body">
|
||||
<h5>核心驱动力</h5>
|
||||
<div class="accordion" id="coreDriversAccordion">
|
||||
<div class="accordion-item">
|
||||
<h2 class="accordion-header">
|
||||
<button class="accordion-button" type="button" data-bs-toggle="collapse" data-bs-target="#collapseOne">
|
||||
<i class="bi bi-arrow-down-circle me-2 text-danger"></i> 供给侧收缩主导
|
||||
</button>
|
||||
</h2>
|
||||
<div id="collapseOne" class="accordion-collapse collapse show" data-bs-parent="#coreDriversAccordion">
|
||||
<div class="accordion-body">
|
||||
<ul>
|
||||
<li><strong>主动减产</strong>：头部企业（桐昆、新凤鸣、恒逸等）为应对亏损，2024年合计减产超100万吨，占行业总产能约3%</li>
|
||||
<li><strong>政策约束</strong>：浙江等地锅炉改造政策（淘汰小型燃煤锅炉）导致部分企业短期停车，新增有效产能受限</li>
|
||||
<li><strong>行业自律</strong>：中国化学纤维工业协会倡导"以销定产"，抑制无序扩产</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="accordion-item">
|
||||
<h2 class="accordion-header">
|
||||
<button class="accordion-button collapsed" type="button" data-bs-toggle="collapse" data-bs-target="#collapseTwo">
|
||||
<i class="bi bi-arrow-up-circle me-2 text-success"></i> 需求边际改善
|
||||
</button>
|
||||
</h2>
|
||||
<div id="collapseTwo" class="accordion-collapse collapse" data-bs-parent="#coreDriversAccordion">
|
||||
<div class="accordion-body">
|
||||
<ul>
|
||||
<li><strong>内需复苏</strong>：2024年国内纺织服装零售额增速回升至5%以上，政策刺激（如家电以旧换新、汽车补贴）带动可选消费回暖</li>
|
||||
<li><strong>外需回暖</strong>：欧美服装去库存接近尾声，东南亚订单回暖（如越南纺织出口增速回升至10%以上），带动国内涤纶长丝出口边际改善</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="accordion-item">
|
||||
<h2 class="accordion-header">
|
||||
<button class="accordion-button collapsed" type="button" data-bs-toggle="collapse" data-bs-target="#collapseThree">
|
||||
<i class="bi bi-cash-stack me-2 text-warning"></i> 成本支撑强化
|
||||
</button>
|
||||
</h2>
|
||||
<div id="collapseThree" class="accordion-collapse collapse" data-bs-parent="#coreDriversAccordion">
|
||||
<div class="accordion-body">
|
||||
<ul>
|
||||
<li><strong>原油价格高位震荡</strong>：2024年布伦特原油价格在70-85美元/桶区间波动，PTA、MEG等原料成本高位运行</li>
|
||||
<li><strong>加工费修复</strong>：随着供给收缩和需求回暖，涤纶长丝加工费（POY、DTY）环比扩大，企业盈利空间改善</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<h5 class="mt-4">市场热度与情绪</h5>
|
||||
<div class="row">
|
||||
<div class="col-md-6">
|
||||
<div class="card border-0 shadow-sm">
|
||||
<div class="card-body">
|
||||
<h6 class="card-title"><i class="bi bi-fire text-danger me-2"></i>短期热度高企</h6>
|
||||
<p class="card-text">2024年Q3以来，涤纶长丝价格、价差、库存等指标持续改善，市场情绪偏向乐观</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="col-md-6">
|
||||
<div class="card border-0 shadow-sm">
|
||||
<div class="card-body">
|
||||
<h6 class="card-title"><i class="bi bi-graph-up text-success me-2"></i>主线逻辑清晰</h6>
|
||||
<p class="card-text">市场普遍认为，涤纶长丝行业已进入"供给收缩+需求复苏"的共振阶段，未来1-2年行业格局将进一步优化</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<h5 class="mt-4">预期差关注点</h5>
|
||||
<div class="alert alert-warning">
|
||||
<i class="bi bi-exclamation-triangle me-2"></i>
|
||||
<strong>潜在预期差</strong>：
|
||||
<ul class="mb-0 mt-2">
|
||||
<li>供给收缩的持续性：头部企业减产能否持续？若后续需求不及预期，是否会重新复产？</li>
|
||||
<li>需求复苏的强度：内需和外贸能否持续回暖？若消费刺激政策效果不及预期，需求复苏可能弱于预期</li>
|
||||
<li>成本支撑的脆弱性：若原油价格大幅下跌，PTA、MEG等原料成本下降，涤纶长丝企业盈利修复的斜率可能放缓</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- 关键催化剂与未来发展路径 -->
|
||||
<div class="card">
|
||||
<div class="card-header">
|
||||
<h3 class="mb-0"><i class="bi bi-rocket-takeoff me-2"></i>关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h3>
|
||||
<!-- Event Timeline -->
|
||||
<div class="col-span-12 md:col-span-5 glass-card p-6">
|
||||
<h2 class="subsection-title mb-6">概念事件时间轴</h2>
|
||||
<ul class="timeline timeline-snap-icon max-md:timeline-compact timeline-vertical">
|
||||
<li>
|
||||
<div class="timeline-middle"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-sky-400"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.06 0l4.001-5.492z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg></div>
|
||||
<div class="timeline-end md:text-end mb-10">
|
||||
<time class="font-mono italic text-slate-400 text-sm">2023年末-2024年初</time>
|
||||
<div class="text-lg font-black text-slate-200">基调确立</div>
|
||||
行业协会发布《高质量发展倡议书》，中央强调“反内卷”，为行业自律定下基调。
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<hr class="bg-sky-400/50"/>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li>
|
||||
<hr class="bg-sky-400/50"/>
|
||||
<div class="timeline-middle"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-sky-400"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.06 0l4.001-5.492z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg></div>
|
||||
<div class="timeline-start mb-10">
|
||||
<time class="font-mono italic text-slate-400 text-sm">2024年5月</time>
|
||||
<div class="text-lg font-black text-slate-200">行动落地</div>
|
||||
萧山160万吨产能因环保停车；桐昆、新凤鸣、盛虹三大厂联合减产10%，并尝试“一口价”模式。
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<hr class="bg-sky-400/50"/>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li>
|
||||
<hr class="bg-sky-400/50"/>
|
||||
<div class="timeline-middle"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-sky-400"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.06 0l4.001-5.492z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg></div>
|
||||
<div class="timeline-end md:text-end mb-10">
|
||||
<time class="font-mono italic text-slate-400 text-sm">2024年7月-8月</time>
|
||||
<div class="text-lg font-black text-slate-200">淡季应对</div>
|
||||
面对淡季，开启新一轮10%减产，并计划追加5%。“一口价”联盟虽有传闻，但核心协同未破裂。
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<hr class="bg-sky-400/50"/>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li>
|
||||
<hr class="bg-sky-400/50"/>
|
||||
<div class="timeline-middle"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-sky-400"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.06 0l4.001-5.492z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg></div>
|
||||
<div class="timeline-start mb-10">
|
||||
<time class="font-mono italic text-slate-400 text-sm">2024年10月-11月</time>
|
||||
<div class="text-lg font-black text-slate-200">战略转向 & 出口改善</div>
|
||||
行业明确联合减产，从“抢份额”转向“控量保利”。印度取消BIS认证，利好出口。
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="card-body">
|
||||
<div class="row">
|
||||
<div class="col-md-6">
|
||||
<h5><i class="bi bi-clock-history me-2"></i>近期催化剂（未来3-6个月）</h5>
|
||||
<div class="list-group">
|
||||
<div class="list-group-item">
|
||||
<div class="d-flex w-100 justify-content-between">
|
||||
<h6 class="mb-1">头部企业减产落地</h6>
|
||||
<small class="text-primary">高影响</small>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<p class="mb-1">桐昆、新凤鸣等龙头企业的减产计划逐步实施，短期供给收缩效应显现</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="list-group-item">
|
||||
<div class="d-flex w-100 justify-content-between">
|
||||
<h6 class="mb-1">金九银十旺季验证</h6>
|
||||
<small class="text-primary">高影响</small>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<p class="mb-1">9-10月为纺织服装传统旺季，下游织机、加弹厂订单回暖，验证需求复苏逻辑</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="list-group-item">
|
||||
<div class="d-flex w-100 justify-content-between">
|
||||
<h6 class="mb-1">原油价格反弹</h6>
|
||||
<small class="text-warning">中影响</small>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<p class="mb-1">若OPEC+减产超预期或地缘冲突升级，原油价格反弹将推动PTA、MEG等原料成本上升</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="col-md-6">
|
||||
<h5><i class="bi bi-compass me-2"></i>长期发展路径（未来2-3年）</h5>
|
||||
<div class="list-group">
|
||||
<div class="list-group-item">
|
||||
<div class="d-flex w-100 justify-content-between">
|
||||
<h6 class="mb-1">行业集中度提升</h6>
|
||||
<small class="text-primary">确定性高</small>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<p class="mb-1">头部企业通过"以销定产"、产能协同、技术升级等方式进一步扩大市场份额，行业CR4有望从当前的45%提升至55%以上</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="list-group-item">
|
||||
<div class="d-flex w-100 justify-content-between">
|
||||
<h6 class="mb-1">产能有序扩张</h6>
|
||||
<small class="text-primary">确定性高</small>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<p class="mb-1">2024年后新增产能主要集中在龙头企业，且新增产能多配套PTA、MEG等原料自供能力，成本优势显著</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="list-group-item">
|
||||
<div class="d-flex w-100 justify-content-between">
|
||||
<h6 class="mb-1">需求结构优化</h6>
|
||||
<small class="text-warning">需观察</small>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<p class="mb-1">高性能、功能化涤纶长丝需求增速将高于传统产品；出口市场多元化，降低对单一市场的依赖</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- ECharts -->
|
||||
<div class="col-span-12 md:col-span-7 flex flex-col gap-6">
|
||||
<div class="glass-card p-6 flex-1">
|
||||
<h2 class="subsection-title mb-4">供给端变革：产能放缓 & 集中度提升</h2>
|
||||
<div id="supplyChart" class="w-full h-64"></div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="glass-card p-6 flex-1">
|
||||
<h2 class="subsection-title mb-4">景气度核心指标：价差与库存博弈</h2>
|
||||
<div id="metricsChart" class="w-full h-64"></div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- 产业链与核心公司剖析 -->
|
||||
<div class="card">
|
||||
<div class="card-header">
|
||||
<h3 class="mb-0"><i class="bi bi-building me-2"></i>产业链与核心公司剖析</h3>
|
||||
<!-- Core Logic -->
|
||||
<div class="col-span-12 lg:col-span-8 glass-card p-6">
|
||||
<h2 class="subsection-title mb-4">核心逻辑与市场认知</h2>
|
||||
<div class="space-y-6 text-slate-300">
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-sky-300 mb-2">核心驱动力：供给侧改革下的寡头博弈</h3>
|
||||
<p>支撑概念的根本逻辑是<span class="font-bold text-white">行业格局的优化</span>。CR6从2018年的48%飙升至近80%，寡头格局使龙头有能力和意愿从“囚徒困境”转向“合作博弈”。未来产能增速预计从7.1%骤降至1.5%，为价格和利润修复提供坚实基础。这本质上是一次行业自发的<span class="highlight-badge">供给侧改革</span>。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-sky-300 mb-2">市场热度与情绪：普遍乐观，但存在分歧</h3>
|
||||
<p>市场对“反内卷”主题高度关注，券商普遍认为“最差的时刻已经过去”。但路演数据揭示了产业链内部对协同可持续性的疑虑，下游企业持<span class="text-amber-300">“半信半疑、观望为主”</span>的态度，显示出情绪分歧。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-sky-300 mb-2">预期差分析：意愿的坚定性 vs. 执行的有效性</h3>
|
||||
<p>市场普遍认知龙头有足够动力执行减产。然而，最关键的预期差在于<span class="text-red-400 font-bold">协同执行的脆弱性</span>。路演纪要明确指出，5月首轮减产“实际执行率仅约5%，效果不佳”，这与新闻中的“坚定执行”形成鲜明对比。市场可能高估了联盟的执行力，而低估了在高库存（一度高达26-30天）和弱需求（零售增速仅2%）压力下，“偷跑”的风险。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="card-body">
|
||||
<h5>产业链图谱</h5>
|
||||
<div class="row mb-4">
|
||||
<div class="col-md-4">
|
||||
<div class="card bg-light border-0">
|
||||
<div class="card-body text-center">
|
||||
<h5 class="text-primary">上游</h5>
|
||||
<p class="mb-0">原油、PX、PTA、MEG等核心原料，其中PTA和MEG占涤纶长丝生产成本的60%-70%</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- Catalysts -->
|
||||
<div class="col-span-12 lg:col-span-4 glass-card p-6">
|
||||
<h2 class="subsection-title mb-4">关键催化剂 & 未来路径</h2>
|
||||
<div class="space-y-4 text-slate-300">
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-slate-100">近期催化剂 (3-6个月)</h4>
|
||||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside mt-2 space-y-1 text-sm">
|
||||
<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-sky-400 mr-2 mt-1">●</span>库存数据实质性下降 (降至15天以下)</li>
|
||||
<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-sky-400 mr-2 mt-1">●</span>“金九银十”旺季需求验证</li>
|
||||
<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-sky-400 mr-2 mt-1">●</span>龙头三季报盈利能力显著改善</li>
|
||||
<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-sky-400 mr-2 mt-1">●</span>出口环境持续改善 (关税、认证)</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="col-md-4">
|
||||
<div class="card bg-light border-0">
|
||||
<div class="card-body text-center">
|
||||
<h5 class="text-success">中游</h5>
|
||||
<p class="mb-0">涤纶长丝生产环节，主要包括POY、FDY、DTY等品种，通过调整加工参数优化产品性能</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="col-md-4">
|
||||
<div class="card bg-light border-0">
|
||||
<div class="card-body text-center">
|
||||
<h5 class="text-danger">下游</h5>
|
||||
<p class="mb-0">纺织服装、产业用纺织品（如汽车内饰、帐篷、工业滤布）等领域，纺织服装占消费量的70%以上</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-slate-100">长期发展路径</h4>
|
||||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside mt-2 space-y-1 text-sm">
|
||||
<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-fuchsia-400 mr-2 mt-1">●</span><strong class="text-slate-300 mr-1">短期(1-2年):</strong> “减产-提价-去库”的博弈循环。</li>
|
||||
<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-fuchsia-400 mr-2 mt-1">●</span><strong class="text-slate-300 mr-1">中期(2-3年):</strong> 供需紧平衡，盈利中枢系统性抬升。</li>
|
||||
<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-fuchsia-400 mr-2 mt-1">●</span><strong class="text-slate-300 mr-1">长期(3-5年):</strong> 进入成熟的寡头盈利阶段，格局稳定。</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<h5>核心玩家对比</h5>
|
||||
<div class="alert alert-info">
|
||||
<i class="bi bi-info-circle me-2"></i>
|
||||
重点关注具备成本优势、产能协同性强的龙头企业，如桐昆股份、新凤鸣、恒逸石化等
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- 股票数据表格 -->
|
||||
<div class="card">
|
||||
<div class="card-header">
|
||||
<h3 class="mb-0"><i class="bi bi-table me-2"></i>涤纶长丝相关上市公司数据</h3>
|
||||
<!-- Risks & Contradictions -->
|
||||
<div class="col-span-12 glass-card p-6 border-amber-400/30 hover:border-amber-400/50 hover:shadow-amber-500/10">
|
||||
<h2 class="subsection-title mb-4 border-l-amber-400 text-amber-300">潜在风险 & 核心矛盾</h2>
|
||||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
|
||||
<div class="text-slate-300 space-y-3">
|
||||
<p><strong class="text-amber-200">需求持续疲软:</strong> 核心风险。若终端消费不振，任何供给端的努力都可能事倍功半。</p>
|
||||
<p><strong class="text-amber-200">成本大幅波动:</strong> 油价剧烈波动会带来巨大的存货减值风险，侵蚀利润。</p>
|
||||
<p><strong class="text-red-400 font-bold">联盟破裂风险:</strong> 最大的不确定性。生存压力下，任何一家龙头背弃协议都可能引发价格战，使行业重回“内卷”。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="bg-slate-900/50 p-4 rounded-xl border border-slate-700">
|
||||
<h4 class="font-bold text-amber-300 mb-2">信息交叉验证的核心矛盾点</h4>
|
||||
<p class="text-slate-300">
|
||||
最显著的矛盾在于 <span class="text-white">新闻/研报对“协同减产”的乐观定性描述</span> 与 <span class="text-white">路演数据中“执行率仅5%，效果不佳”的定量事实</span> 之间的冲突。
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm mt-2">
|
||||
这反映了卖方研究与产业一线真实情况之间可能存在的信息差。投资者若仅依赖公开报告，可能会对行业自律的实际效果产生严重误判。
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="card-body">
|
||||
<div class="table-responsive">
|
||||
<table class="table table-hover">
|
||||
<thead>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- Rise Analysis -->
|
||||
<div class="col-span-12 glass-card p-6">
|
||||
<h2 class="subsection-title mb-4">市场异动归因分析 (Rise Analysis)</h2>
|
||||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-4">
|
||||
<!-- Analysis Cards will be inserted here -->
|
||||
<div class="bg-slate-900/50 p-4 rounded-xl border border-slate-700 h-full flex flex-col">
|
||||
<div class="flex justify-between items-center mb-2">
|
||||
<span class="font-bold text-lg text-white">凤竹纺织 (600493)</span>
|
||||
<span class="badge badge-success badge-outline">+6.97%</span>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<time class="text-xs text-slate-400 mb-2">2025-11-10</time>
|
||||
<p class="text-sm text-slate-300 flex-grow"><strong class="text-sky-300">核心结论:</strong> 受益于上游PTA-涤纶长丝产业链“反内卷”协同减产逻辑，引发市场对整个纺织板块的估值修复预期，作为板块一员出现典型的“水涨船高”式联动行情。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="bg-slate-900/50 p-4 rounded-xl border border-slate-700 h-full flex flex-col">
|
||||
<div class="flex justify-between items-center mb-2">
|
||||
<span class="font-bold text-lg text-white">新乡化纤 (000949)</span>
|
||||
<span class="badge badge-success badge-outline">+6.73%</span>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<time class="text-xs text-slate-400 mb-2">2025-09-26</time>
|
||||
<p class="text-sm text-slate-300 flex-grow"><strong class="text-sky-300">核心结论:</strong> 化纤行业协同减产（“反内卷”）成效显著，带来供需改善和价格上涨预期。同时公司在碳纤维、生物基材料等新领域的布局提供了估值想象空间，叠加板块轮动效应，股价逆势走强。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="bg-slate-900/50 p-4 rounded-xl border border-slate-700 h-full flex flex-col">
|
||||
<div class="flex justify-between items-center mb-2">
|
||||
<span class="font-bold text-lg text-white">恒天海龙 (000677)</span>
|
||||
<span class="badge badge-error badge-outline">+9.92%</span>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<time class="text-xs text-slate-400 mb-2">2025-06-30</time>
|
||||
<p class="text-sm text-slate-300 flex-grow"><strong class="text-sky-300">核心结论:</strong> 深圳口岸营商环境优化政策落地，市场预期港口物流装备升级将直接拉动集装箱加固带需求。公司作为“高模低缩涤纶工业长丝”龙头，直接受益于此政策催化。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- Core Companies Table -->
|
||||
<div class="col-span-12 glass-card p-6">
|
||||
<h2 class="subsection-title mb-4">核心标的与产业链布局</h2>
|
||||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||||
<table class="table table-zebra-zebra bg-transparent w-full">
|
||||
<thead class="text-sky-300 text-sm">
|
||||
<tr>
|
||||
<th>公司名称</th>
|
||||
<th>核心业务</th>
|
||||
<th>产能</th>
|
||||
<th>市场占有率</th>
|
||||
<th>数据来源</th>
|
||||
<th class="bg-transparent">分类</th>
|
||||
<th class="bg-transparent">股票名称</th>
|
||||
<th class="bg-transparent">股票代码</th>
|
||||
<th class="bg-transparent">核心逻辑 / 业务关联</th>
|
||||
<th class="bg-transparent">产能/市占率 (截至2024)</th>
|
||||
</tr>
|
||||
</thead>
|
||||
<tbody>
|
||||
<tbody class="text-slate-300">
|
||||
<tr>
|
||||
<td><strong>桐昆股份</strong></td>
|
||||
<td>涤纶长丝</td>
|
||||
<td>1350万吨/年</td>
|
||||
<td>国内销量第一，市占率超28%</td>
|
||||
<td>个股研报</td>
|
||||
<td rowspan="2" class="align-top bg-transparent"><span class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">领导者 (纯粹标的)</span></td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent font-bold">桐昆股份</td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601233" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">601233</a></td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent text-sm">绝对龙头，行业“反内卷”联盟的核心与风向标，估值处历史底部，安全边际高。</td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent">1350万吨/年，市占率 >28%</td>
|
||||
</tr>
|
||||
<tr>
|
||||
<td><strong>新凤鸣</strong></td>
|
||||
<td>涤纶长丝</td>
|
||||
<td>805万吨/年</td>
|
||||
<td>国内市场占有率超过12%</td>
|
||||
<td>个股研报</td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent font-bold">新凤鸣</td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603225" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">603225</a></td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent text-sm">行业第二，与桐昆构成双寡头格局，协同策略的坚定执行者，逻辑纯粹性高。</td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent">805万吨/年，市占率 >12%</td>
|
||||
</tr>
|
||||
<tr>
|
||||
<td><strong>恒逸石化</strong></td>
|
||||
<td>聚酯长丝</td>
|
||||
<td>633.5万吨</td>
|
||||
<td>-</td>
|
||||
<td>半年报</td>
|
||||
<td rowspan="4" class="align-top bg-transparent"><span class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline">一体化巨头</span></td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent font-semibold">恒逸石化</td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000703" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">000703</a></td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent text-sm">“炼化-化纤”全产业链布局，成本控制力强，但股价受多环节景气度综合影响。</td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent">633.5万吨 (半年报)</td>
|
||||
</tr>
|
||||
<tr>
|
||||
<td><strong>恒力石化</strong></td>
|
||||
<td>涤纶长丝/民用丝</td>
|
||||
<td>合计410万吨/年</td>
|
||||
<td>-</td>
|
||||
<td>年报</td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent font-semibold">恒力石化</td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600346" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">600346</a></td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent text-sm">“一滴油到一根丝”全产业链，抗风险能力强，涤纶长丝为业务版图一部分。</td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent">410万吨/年 (合计)</td>
|
||||
</tr>
|
||||
<tr>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent font-semibold">东方盛虹</td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000301" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">000301</a></td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent text-sm">大型炼化一体化企业，长丝业务受益于行业景气，但逻辑纯度不如双寡头。</td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent">约360万吨/年</td>
|
||||
</tr>
|
||||
<tr>
|
||||
<td><strong>东方盛虹</strong></td>
|
||||
<td>涤纶长丝</td>
|
||||
<td>约360万吨/年</td>
|
||||
<td>-</td>
|
||||
<td>调研</td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent font-semibold">荣盛石化</td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002493" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">002493</a></td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent text-sm">以PTA、炼化为主，涤纶长丝为下游延伸，受益于产业链景气传导。</td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent">142万吨/年 (2023)</td>
|
||||
</tr>
|
||||
<tr>
|
||||
<td><strong>荣盛石化</strong></td>
|
||||
<td>涤纶长丝</td>
|
||||
<td>142万吨/年</td>
|
||||
<td>-</td>
|
||||
<td>行业研报</td>
|
||||
<td rowspan="2" class="align-top bg-transparent"><span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">特色追赶者</span></td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent">海利得</td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002206" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">002206</a></td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent text-sm">专注于涤纶工业丝领域，受益于特定下游（如汽车、港口物流）需求。</td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent">32万吨/年</td>
|
||||
</tr>
|
||||
<tr>
|
||||
<td><strong>海利得</strong></td>
|
||||
<td>涤纶丝</td>
|
||||
<td>32万吨/年</td>
|
||||
<td>-</td>
|
||||
<td>年报</td>
|
||||
</tr>
|
||||
<tr>
|
||||
<td><strong>尤夫股份</strong></td>
|
||||
<td>工业丝</td>
|
||||
<td>30万吨/年</td>
|
||||
<td>-</td>
|
||||
<td>年报</td>
|
||||
</tr>
|
||||
<tr>
|
||||
<td><strong>苏州龙杰</strong></td>
|
||||
<td>涤纶长丝</td>
|
||||
<td>20.64万吨（生产量）</td>
|
||||
<td>-</td>
|
||||
<td>年报</td>
|
||||
</tr>
|
||||
<tr>
|
||||
<td><strong>汇隆新材</strong></td>
|
||||
<td>差别化有色涤纶长丝</td>
|
||||
<td>13.04万吨/年</td>
|
||||
<td>-</td>
|
||||
<td>年报</td>
|
||||
<tr>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent">尤夫股份</td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002427" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">002427</a></td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent text-sm">主营工业丝，与民用丝市场存在差异，但同样受益于行业景气和下游应用。</td>
|
||||
<td class="bg-transparent">30万吨/年</td>
|
||||
</tr>
|
||||
</tbody>
|
||||
</table>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<div class="alert alert-success mt-3">
|
||||
<i class="bi bi-lightbulb me-2"></i>
|
||||
<strong>投资启示</strong>：龙头企业桐昆股份、新凤鸣、恒逸石化产能优势明显，行业集中度提升过程中将充分受益。建议关注具备成本优势和产业链协同效应的企业。
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- Footer -->
|
||||
<footer class="text-center mt-12 text-xs text-slate-600">
|
||||
<p>本报告由AI合成，数据及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，投资需谨慎。</p>
|
||||
<p>© 2024 北京价值前沿科技有限公司. All Rights Reserved.</p>
|
||||
</footer>
|
||||
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<footer class="bg-dark text-white py-4 mt-5">
|
||||
<div class="container">
|
||||
<div class="row">
|
||||
<div class="col-md-6">
|
||||
<h5>涤纶长丝行业分析</h5>
|
||||
<p>数据来源：公开研报、公司年报、行业调研</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="col-md-6 text-md-end">
|
||||
<p class="mb-0">© 2024 金融视角分析 | 仅供参考，不构成投资建议</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</footer>
|
||||
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|
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||||
</body>
|
||||
</html>
|
||||
</html>
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user