update pay ui
This commit is contained in:
@@ -1,413 +1,593 @@
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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="dracula">
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>聚酯产业深度分析:反内卷下的周期反转</title>
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<title>聚酯产业 - 深度研究报告</title>
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<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.12.10/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<script src="https://unpkg.com/aos@2.3.1/dist/aos.js"></script>
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<link href="https://unpkg.com/aos@2.3.1/dist/aos.css" rel="stylesheet">
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.10.1/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<script defer src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js"></script>
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<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
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<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com">
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<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.gstatic.com" crossorigin>
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<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:wght@300;400;500;600;700&family=Orbitron:wght@400;700&display=swap" rel="stylesheet">
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<style>
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.gradient-bg { background: linear-gradient(135deg, #1e3a8a 0%, #3b82f6 50%, #06b6d4 100%); }
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.glass-card { background: rgba(30, 41, 59, 0.7); backdrop-filter: blur(10px); border: 1px solid rgba(148, 163, 184, 0.2); }
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.timeline-line { position: relative; }
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.timeline-line::before { content: ''; position: absolute; left: 50%; top: 0; bottom: 0; width: 2px; background: linear-gradient(to bottom, #3b82f6, #8b5cf6); transform: translateX(-50%); }
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@media (max-width: 768px) { .timeline-line::before { left: 20px; } }
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.stock-table { font-size: 0.875rem; }
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.stock-table th { position: sticky; top: 0; z-index: 10; }
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@media (max-width: 640px) { .stock-table { font-size: 0.75rem; } .hide-mobile { display: none; } }
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:root {
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--glow-color-1: #00ffff;
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--glow-color-2: #ff00ff;
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--glow-color-3: #ffff00;
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}
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body {
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font-family: 'Inter', sans-serif;
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background-color: #020010;
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color: #e0e0e0;
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overflow-x: hidden;
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}
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#space-bg {
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position: fixed;
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top: 0;
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left: 0;
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width: 100%;
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height: 100vh;
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background: radial-gradient(ellipse at bottom, #1b2735 0%, #020010 100%);
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z-index: -2;
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overflow: hidden;
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}
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.stars {
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position: absolute;
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top: 0;
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left: 0;
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width: 100%;
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height: 100%;
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background-image:
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radial-gradient(1px 1px at 20% 30%, rgba(255,255,255,0.4), transparent),
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radial-gradient(1px 1px at 80% 10%, rgba(255,255,255,0.4), transparent),
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radial-gradient(1px 1px at 50% 70%, rgba(255,255,255,0.4), transparent),
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radial-gradient(2px 2px at 90% 60%, rgba(255,255,255,0.6), transparent),
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radial-gradient(2px 2px at 30% 80%, rgba(255,255,255,0.6), transparent);
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background-repeat: no-repeat;
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background-size: cover;
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animation: zoom 25s infinite;
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}
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@keyframes zoom {
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0% { transform: scale(1); }
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50% { transform: scale(1.1); }
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100% { transform: scale(1); }
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}
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.glow-sphere {
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position: fixed;
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border-radius: 50%;
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filter: blur(150px);
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opacity: 0.3;
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z-index: -1;
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}
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.sphere1 {
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width: 600px;
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height: 600px;
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background: var(--glow-color-1);
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top: -200px;
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left: -200px;
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animation: move-sphere1 30s alternate infinite;
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}
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.sphere2 {
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width: 500px;
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height: 500px;
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background: var(--glow-color-2);
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bottom: -200px;
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right: -200px;
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animation: move-sphere2 35s alternate-reverse infinite;
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}
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.sphere3 {
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width: 400px;
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height: 400px;
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background: var(--glow-color-3);
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bottom: 50%;
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right: 50%;
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transform: translate(50%, 50%);
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animation: move-sphere3 40s alternate infinite;
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}
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@keyframes move-sphere1 {
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to { transform: translate(200px, 300px); }
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}
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@keyframes move-sphere2 {
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to { transform: translate(-300px, -200px); }
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}
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@keyframes move-sphere3 {
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to { transform: translate(150px, -150px) scale(1.2); }
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}
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.glass-card {
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background: rgba(10, 10, 30, 0.4);
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backdrop-filter: blur(12px) saturate(150%);
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-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(12px) saturate(150%);
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border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
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transition: all 0.3s ease;
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}
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.glass-card:hover {
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transform: translateY(-5px);
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box-shadow: 0 0 30px rgba(0, 255, 255, 0.2);
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border-color: rgba(0, 255, 255, 0.3);
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}
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h1, h2, h3 {
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font-family: 'Orbitron', sans-serif;
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text-shadow: 0 0 10px var(--glow-color-1), 0 0 20px var(--glow-color-1);
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}
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h2 { color: #93c5fd; }
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h3 { color: #a5b4fc; }
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.bento-grid {
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display: grid;
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gap: 1rem;
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grid-template-columns: repeat(12, 1fr);
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grid-auto-rows: minmax(100px, auto);
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}
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.bento-item {
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grid-column: span 12;
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}
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@media (min-width: 768px) {
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.bento-item-1 { grid-column: span 8; grid-row: span 2; }
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.bento-item-2 { grid-column: span 4; grid-row: span 2; }
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.bento-item-3 { grid-column: span 4; }
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.bento-item-4 { grid-column: span 4; }
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.bento-item-5 { grid-column: span 4; }
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.bento-item-6 { grid-column: span 12; }
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}
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.custom-list li::before {
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content: '▰';
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color: var(--glow-color-1);
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margin-right: 0.75rem;
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font-size: 0.8rem;
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}
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.table thead th {
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background-color: rgba(0, 255, 255, 0.1);
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color: var(--glow-color-1);
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text-transform: uppercase;
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letter-spacing: 1px;
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font-family: 'Orbitron', sans-serif;
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}
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.table tbody tr {
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border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
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transition: background-color 0.2s ease;
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}
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.table tbody tr:hover {
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background-color: rgba(0, 255, 255, 0.08);
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}
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[x-cloak] { display: none !important; }
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="bg-slate-900 text-white">
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<body class="min-h-screen">
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<div id="space-bg">
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<div class="stars"></div>
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<div class="glow-sphere sphere1"></div>
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<div class="glow-sphere sphere2"></div>
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<div class="glow-sphere sphere3"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Hero Section -->
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<section class="gradient-bg min-h-screen flex items-center justify-center p-4">
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<div class="max-w-6xl mx-auto text-center" data-aos="fade-up">
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<h1 class="text-5xl md:text-7xl font-bold mb-6 bg-gradient-to-r from-cyan-400 to-purple-400 bg-clip-text text-transparent">
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聚酯产业深度洞察
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8" x-data="{}" x-init="
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const observer = new IntersectionObserver((entries) => {
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entries.forEach(entry => {
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if (entry.isIntersecting) {
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entry.target.classList.add('animate-fade-in-up');
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entry.target.classList.remove('opacity-0');
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}
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});
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}, { threshold: 0.1 });
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document.querySelectorAll('.anim-on-scroll').forEach((el) => {
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observer.observe(el);
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});
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">
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<header class="text-center py-8 anim-on-scroll opacity-0">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold tracking-widest uppercase">
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聚酯产业
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</h1>
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<p class="text-xl md:text-2xl mb-8 text-slate-200">
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反内卷三重奏下的周期反转 · 亏损倒逼最强协同
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</p>
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<div class="flex flex-wrap justify-center gap-4 mb-12">
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<div class="glass-card rounded-xl p-6 min-w-[12rem]">
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<div class="text-3xl font-bold text-green-400">-200元/吨</div>
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<div class="text-sm text-slate-400">PTA价差历史低点</div>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-xl p-6 min-w-[12rem]">
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<div class="text-3xl font-bold text-blue-400">75%</div>
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<div class="text-sm text-slate-400">CR6行业集中度</div>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-xl p-6 min-w-[12rem]">
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<div class="text-3xl font-bold text-purple-400">600%</div>
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<div class="text-sm text-slate-400">长丝产销率峰值</div>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-xl p-6 min-w-[12rem]">
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<div class="text-3xl font-bold text-orange-400">3%</div>
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<div class="text-sm text-slate-400">2026年产能增速</div>
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</div>
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<p class="text-lg text-cyan-300 mt-2 tracking-wider">Polyester Industry</p>
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<div class="mt-4 text-xs text-gray-500 max-w-2xl mx-auto">
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<p>北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent:“价小前投研” 呈现</p>
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<p>本报告为AI合成数据,据此投资,风险自担。</p>
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</div>
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<button class="btn btn-primary btn-lg rounded-full px-8" onclick="document.getElementById('analysis').scrollIntoView({behavior: 'smooth'})">
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开始探索
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</button>
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</div>
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</section>
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</header>
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<!-- 核心摘要 -->
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<section id="analysis" class="py-20 px-4">
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<div class="max-w-6xl mx-auto">
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<h2 class="text-4xl font-bold text-center mb-12" data-aos="fade-up">核心观点摘要</h2>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-8 mb-12" data-aos="fade-up" data-aos-delay="100">
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<p class="text-lg leading-relaxed text-slate-300">
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聚酯产业链正处于
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<span class="bg-gradient-to-r from-red-500 to-orange-500 bg-clip-text text-transparent font-bold">"亏损倒逼+政策引导+龙头协同"</span>
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三重驱动的周期反转关键节点。2025年9月PTA价差跌至负值的极端事件,反而成为最强催化剂,推动行业从分散竞争走向寡头协同。
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<strong class="text-blue-400">PTA环节</strong>因集中度最高(CR6达75%)、亏损最严重、新增产能归零,具备最大价格弹性;
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<strong class="text-purple-400">涤纶长丝环节</strong>因库存降至历史低位、需求韧性较强,盈利修复确定性最高。
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当前处于基本面驱动早期,非主题炒作,未来2-3年有望进入双重景气周期。
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</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 时间轴 -->
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<section class="py-20 px-4 bg-slate-800">
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<div class="max-w-6xl mx-auto">
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<h2 class="text-4xl font-bold text-center mb-16">产业演进时间轴</h2>
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<div class="timeline-line">
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<main class="space-y-8 md:space-y-12">
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<!-- Insight Section -->
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<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-10 anim-on-scroll opacity-0" style="animation-delay: 100ms;">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-6 border-b-2 border-cyan-400/30 pb-3">概念核心洞察 (Concept Insight)</h2>
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<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row items-center mb-12" data-aos="fade-right">
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<div class="md:w-1/2 md:pr-8 md:text-right mb-4 md:mb-0">
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<div class="glass-card rounded-xl p-6">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold text-orange-400 mb-2">2023年:行业触底</h3>
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<ul class="text-slate-300 space-y-2">
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<li>• 涤纶长丝价差仅盈亏平衡(1000元/吨)</li>
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<li>• PTA全行业亏损,加工费历史低位</li>
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<li>• 龙头采取"保价不保量",开工率压至60%</li>
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<li>• 下游坯布库存从30天降至20天</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="space-y-8">
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">0. 概念事件:周期演变的核心脉络</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300">聚酯产业在近年经历了一个完整的“产能扩张 → 供给过剩 → 行业亏损 → 联合减产”的周期性演变。其核心事件在于,以2025年下半年为转折点,在工信部政策定调和龙头企业生存危机驱动下,行业从无序竞争转向了以“反内卷”为目标的协同供给侧改革。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="w-4 h-4 bg-orange-500 rounded-full border-4 border-slate-900 z-10"></div>
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<div class="md:w-1/2 md:pl-8"></div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row-reverse items-center mb-12" data-aos="fade-left">
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||||
<div class="md:w-1/2 md:pl-8 mb-4 md:mb-0">
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<div class="glass-card rounded-xl p-6">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold text-blue-400 mb-2">2024年:反内卷元年</h3>
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<ul class="text-slate-300 space-y-2">
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<li>• <strong>5月</strong>:长丝大厂开启减产,累计达24%</li>
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<li>• <strong>7-9月</strong>:深化减产,FDY减20%、POY减5%</li>
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<li>• <strong>8月</strong>:郑商所推动聚酯品种对外开放</li>
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<li>• <strong>CR6达75%</strong>,组织基础形成</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">1. 核心观点摘要</h3>
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<p class="font-medium text-cyan-200 text-lg">聚酯产业正处在由供给过剩驱动的恶性竞争,转向寡头协同驱动的供给侧改革的关键拐点。核心驱动力已从需求增长转变为行业龙头为自救而达成的“反内卷”共识,未来潜力在于供给端有序收缩带来的全产业链利润修复,行业正从周期底部迈入景气回升通道。</p>
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||||
</div>
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||||
<div class="w-4 h-4 bg-blue-500 rounded-full border-4 border-slate-900 z-10"></div>
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||||
<div class="md:w-1/2 md:pr-8"></div>
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||||
</div>
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||||
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||||
<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row items-center mb-12" data-aos="fade-right">
|
||||
<div class="md:w-1/2 md:pr-8 md:text-right mb-4 md:mb-0">
|
||||
<div class="glass-card rounded-xl p-6">
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||||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold text-red-500 mb-2">2025年:景气崩塌与最强协同</h3>
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<ul class="text-slate-300 space-y-2">
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<li>• <strong>9月</strong>:PTA价差崩盘至<strong>-200元/吨</strong></li>
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<li>• 长丝产销率飙升至<strong>600%</strong>,库存降至10天</li>
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<li>• <strong>9月24日</strong>:三大长丝厂再减产8-10%</li>
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||||
<li>• <strong>11月</strong>:PTA龙头全面减产,涉及产能10%</li>
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</ul>
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||||
</div>
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||||
</div>
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||||
<div class="w-4 h-4 bg-red-500 rounded-full border-4 border-slate-900 z-10 animate-pulse"></div>
|
||||
<div class="md:w-1/2 md:pl-8"></div>
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||||
</div>
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||||
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||||
<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row-reverse items-center" data-aos="fade-left">
|
||||
<div class="md:w-1/2 md:pl-8">
|
||||
<div class="glass-card rounded-xl p-6">
|
||||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold text-green-400 mb-2">2026年:供给拐点</h3>
|
||||
<ul class="text-slate-300 space-y-2">
|
||||
<li>• PTA新增产能周期结束</li>
|
||||
<li>• 长丝新增产能增速仅<strong>3%</strong></li>
|
||||
<li>• 老旧产能(20年以上)陆续退出</li>
|
||||
<li>• 行业进入存量优化阶段</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="w-4 h-4 bg-green-500 rounded-full border-4 border-slate-900 z-10"></div>
|
||||
<div class="md:w-1/2 md:pr-8"></div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- 核心逻辑 -->
|
||||
<section class="py-20 px-4">
|
||||
<div class="max-w-6xl mx-auto">
|
||||
<h2 class="text-4xl font-bold text-center mb-12">核心逻辑与市场认知</h2>
|
||||
|
||||
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-6 mb-12">
|
||||
<div class="glass-card rounded-xl p-6" data-aos="fade-up">
|
||||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-cyan-400 mb-4">行政逻辑</h3>
|
||||
<p class="text-slate-300">反内卷政策从口号变为行业自觉行动。化工行业作为制造业代表,聚酯成为政策突破口。龙头企业在协会协调下,将"限产保价"从长丝延伸至PTA,是2016年煤炭供给侧改革以来最彻底的协同行动。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="glass-card rounded-xl p-6" data-aos="fade-up" data-aos-delay="100">
|
||||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-purple-400 mb-4">市场逻辑</h3>
|
||||
<p class="text-slate-300">2026年PTA新增产能几乎为零,但1,100万吨产能长期停车,有效供给比名义数据低15-20%。下游功能面料需求强劲(锦纶消费增速30%),结构性牛市特征明显。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="glass-card rounded-xl p-6" data-aos="fade-up" data-aos-delay="200">
|
||||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-orange-400 mb-4">财务逻辑</h3>
|
||||
<p class="text-slate-300">9月PTA加工费跌至108元/吨,远低于现金成本(300元/吨)。龙头企业虽有一体化优势,但亏损仍拖累业绩。"不减产就亏损"的生存压力下,协同成为理性最优解。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- 预期差分析 -->
|
||||
<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-8" data-aos="fade-up">
|
||||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-center">三大预期差</h3>
|
||||
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
|
||||
<div class="text-center">
|
||||
<div class="text-4xl mb-2">📊</div>
|
||||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg mb-2">产能数据的"水分"</h4>
|
||||
<p class="text-sm text-slate-400">公开8,855万吨含僵尸产能,实际有效仅7,900万吨。开工率89%而非78%,供给紧张被严重低估。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="text-center">
|
||||
<div class="text-4xl mb-2">🎯</div>
|
||||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg mb-2">军备竞赛反转</h4>
|
||||
<p class="text-sm text-slate-400">从"扩产抢份额"转向"利润优先"。新凤鸣推迟300万吨、同坤退出150万吨老线,退出产能将永久退出。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="text-center">
|
||||
<div class="text-4xl mb-2">📈</div>
|
||||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg mb-2">结构性牛市</h4>
|
||||
<p class="text-sm text-slate-400">市场担忧总量疲软,但功能面料需求强劲(户外、耐磨)。长丝库存10天 vs PTA库存高企,印证需求在高端细分。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- 股票数据表格 -->
|
||||
<section class="py-20 px-4 bg-slate-800">
|
||||
<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto">
|
||||
<h2 class="text-4xl font-bold text-center mb-12">产业链产能数据全景</h2>
|
||||
<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-4 md:p-8 overflow-x-auto">
|
||||
<table class="table table-zebra stock-table w-full">
|
||||
<thead class="bg-gradient-to-r from-blue-900 to-purple-900">
|
||||
<tr class="text-white">
|
||||
<th class="p-3">公司名称</th>
|
||||
<th class="p-3 hide-mobile">分类</th>
|
||||
<th class="p-3">项目</th>
|
||||
<th class="p-3">产能</th>
|
||||
<th class="p-3 hide-mobile">信源</th>
|
||||
<th class="p-3 hide-mobile">核心优势</th>
|
||||
</tr>
|
||||
</thead>
|
||||
<tbody>
|
||||
<tr><td class="font-bold">荣盛石化</td><td class="hide-mobile">上游</td><td>对二甲苯(PX)</td><td>1040万吨/年</td><td class="hide-mobile">工商/互动</td><td class="hide-mobile">浙石化51%,全球最大</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td class="font-bold">恒力石化</td><td class="hide-mobile">上游</td><td>对二甲苯(PX)</td><td>520万吨/年</td><td class="hide-mobile">公告</td><td class="hide-mobile">现有产能</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td class="font-bold">恒力石化</td><td class="hide-mobile">中游</td><td>精对苯二甲酸(PTA)</td><td>1660万吨/年</td><td class="hide-mobile">年报</td><td class="hide-mobile">全球最大,占比18%</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td class="font-bold">恒逸石化</td><td class="hide-mobile">中游</td><td>精对苯二甲酸(PTA)</td><td>1049万吨/年</td><td class="hide-mobile">公告</td><td class="hide-mobile">权益产能</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td class="font-bold">荣盛石化</td><td class="hide-mobile">中游</td><td>精对苯二甲酸(PTA)</td><td>1040万吨/年</td><td class="hide-mobile">互动</td><td class="hide-mobile">现有产能</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td class="font-bold">桐昆股份</td><td class="hide-mobile">中游</td><td>精对苯二甲酸(PTA)</td><td>1020万吨/年</td><td class="hide-mobile">半年报</td><td class="hide-mobile">长丝龙头配套</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td class="font-bold">新凤鸣</td><td class="hide-mobile">中游</td><td>精对苯二甲酸(PTA)</td><td>800万吨/年</td><td class="hide-mobile">公告</td><td class="hide-mobile">一体化100%</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td class="font-bold">桐昆股份</td><td class="hide-mobile">下游</td><td>涤纶长丝</td><td>1350万吨/年</td><td class="hide-mobile">半年报</td><td class="hide-mobile">长丝绝对龙头</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td class="font-bold">新凤鸣</td><td class="hide-mobile">下游</td><td>涤纶长丝</td><td>805万吨/年</td><td class="hide-mobile">公告</td><td class="hide-mobile">市占率超12%</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td class="font-bold">恒逸石化</td><td class="hide-mobile">下游</td><td>涤纶长丝</td><td>677万吨/年</td><td class="hide-mobile">公告</td><td class="hide-mobile">多元化布局</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td class="font-bold">荣盛石化</td><td class="hide-mobile">下游</td><td>聚酯瓶片</td><td>530万吨/年</td><td class="hide-mobile">年报</td><td class="hide-mobile">瓶片龙头</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td class="font-bold">万凯新材</td><td class="hide-mobile">下游</td><td>聚酯瓶片</td><td>300万吨/年</td><td class="hide-mobile">半年报</td><td class="hide-mobile">率先扭亏</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td class="font-bold">三房巷</td><td class="hide-mobile">下游</td><td>聚酯瓶片</td><td>240万吨/年</td><td class="hide-mobile">公告</td><td class="hide-mobile">市占率19.34%</td></tr>
|
||||
</tbody>
|
||||
</table>
|
||||
<div class="mt-4 text-sm text-slate-400 text-center">
|
||||
💡 <strong>核心洞察</strong>:恒力石化PTA产能1660万吨(行业18%)话语权最重;桐昆股份1350万吨长丝规模效应最强;新凤鸣一体化率100%弹性最大
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- 核心公司对比 -->
|
||||
<section class="py-20 px-4">
|
||||
<div class="max-w-6xl mx-auto">
|
||||
<h2 class="text-4xl font-bold text-center mb-12">核心玩家对比分析</h2>
|
||||
<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-4 md:p-8 overflow-x-auto">
|
||||
<table class="table table-compact stock-table w-full">
|
||||
<thead class="bg-gradient-to-r from-green-900 to-blue-900">
|
||||
<tr class="text-white">
|
||||
<th class="p-3">公司</th>
|
||||
<th class="p-3">PTA产能</th>
|
||||
<th class="p-3">长丝产能</th>
|
||||
<th class="p-3 hide-mobile">一体化</th>
|
||||
<th class="p-3">利润弹性</th>
|
||||
<th class="p-3 hide-mobile">核心优势</th>
|
||||
</tr>
|
||||
</thead>
|
||||
<tbody>
|
||||
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-700"><td class="font-bold">新凤鸣</td><td>1100万吨</td><td>840万吨</td><td class="hide-mobile">100%</td><td><span class="badge badge-error">最大</span></td><td class="hide-mobile">长丝增速快,协同减产积极</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-700"><td class="font-bold">桐昆股份</td><td>1020万吨</td><td>1350万吨</td><td class="hide-mobile">高</td><td><span class="badge badge-error">最大</span></td><td class="hide-mobile">长丝绝对龙头,规模效应最强</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-700"><td class="font-bold">恒逸石化</td><td>1000万吨</td><td>680万吨</td><td class="hide-mobile">高</td><td><span class="badge badge-warning">较大</span></td><td class="hide-mobile">海外PX布局,文莱一体化</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-700"><td class="font-bold">恒力石化</td><td>1660万吨</td><td>410万吨</td><td class="hide-mobile">最高</td><td><span class="badge badge-info">中等</span></td><td class="hide-mobile">PTA规模最大,话语权最重</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-700"><td class="font-bold">荣盛石化</td><td>1040万吨</td><td>142万吨</td><td class="hide-mobile">最高</td><td><span class="badge badge-info">中等</span></td><td class="hide-mobile">上游PX最强势,受益价差修复</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-700"><td class="font-bold">万凯新材</td><td>-</td><td>300万吨(瓶片)</td><td class="hide-mobile">低</td><td><span class="badge badge-warning">较大</span></td><td class="hide-mobile">瓶片率先扭亏,乙二醇放量</td></tr>
|
||||
</tbody>
|
||||
</table>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- 催化剂与路径 -->
|
||||
<section class="py-20 px-4 bg-slate-800">
|
||||
<div class="max-w-6xl mx-auto">
|
||||
<h2 class="text-4xl font-bold text-center mb-12">催化剂与发展路径</h2>
|
||||
|
||||
<div class="mb-12">
|
||||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-center text-orange-400">近期催化剂(3-6个月)</h3>
|
||||
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
|
||||
<div class="card bg-gradient-to-br from-red-900 to-orange-900 shadow-xl" data-aos="zoom-in">
|
||||
<div class="card-body">
|
||||
<h4 class="card-title">减产落地验证</h4>
|
||||
<p class="text-sm">11月虹港石化250万吨、逸盛等检修落地,若实际减产超1000万吨,PTA加工费有望快速修复至200元/吨以上。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="card bg-gradient-to-br from-blue-900 to-purple-900 shadow-xl" data-aos="zoom-in" data-aos-delay="100">
|
||||
<div class="card-body">
|
||||
<h4 class="card-title">业绩拐点显现</h4>
|
||||
<p class="text-sm">万凯新材Q3净利预计3500-5000万率先扭亏;桐昆、新凤鸣Q4有望V型反转,业绩成最强催化剂。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="card bg-gradient-to-br from-green-900 to-teal-900 shadow-xl" data-aos="zoom-in" data-aos-delay="200">
|
||||
<div class="card-body">
|
||||
<h4 class="card-title">春节补库启动</h4>
|
||||
<p class="text-sm">若10-11月织机开工率维持80%以上,春节前原料补库将提前启动,形成"供需双紧"格局。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-center text-green-400">长期发展路径(2026-2028)</h3>
|
||||
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
|
||||
<div class="glass-card rounded-xl p-6" data-aos="fade-up">
|
||||
<h4 class="text-xl font-bold mb-3 text-yellow-400">2026H1:产能出清</h4>
|
||||
<ul class="text-slate-300 space-y-2 text-sm">
|
||||
<li>• PTA开工率维持75-80%</li>
|
||||
<li>• 长期亏损装置(500万吨)退出</li>
|
||||
<li>• 加工费修复至200-300元/吨</li>
|
||||
<li>• 长丝利润从150元升至300-400元/吨</li>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">2. 核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h3>
|
||||
<ul class="space-y-4 custom-list text-gray-300">
|
||||
<li><strong class="text-white">生存危机倒逼的寡头协同:</strong> 长期全行业亏损(PTA加工费跌破现金成本)是推动协同减产的最强动力。</li>
|
||||
<li><strong class="text-white">高行业集中度提供执行基础:</strong> PTA行业CR6集中度达74-75%,涤纶长丝CR6近80%,为寡头协同提供了可能。</li>
|
||||
<li><strong class="text-white">产能扩张周期结束提供“休战”窗口:</strong> 2025年底PTA新增产能周期基本结束,2026年或无新增产能,为减产保价提供了稳定环境。</li>
|
||||
<li><strong class="text-white">市场情绪与预期差:</strong> 市场情绪已由悲观转为显著乐观。但潜在预期差在于对减产协议“执行力与持续性”的过度乐观,以及可能高估了“需求端的配合度”。</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="glass-card rounded-xl p-6" data-aos="fade-up" data-aos-delay="100">
|
||||
<h4 class="text-xl font-bold mb-3 text-yellow-400">2026H2-2027:双重景气</h4>
|
||||
<ul class="text-slate-300 space-y-2 text-sm">
|
||||
<li>• 聚酯需求增速4-5%</li>
|
||||
<li>• PTA开工率需达88.6%才能满足需求</li>
|
||||
<li>• 加工费突破300元/吨</li>
|
||||
<li>• 长丝价差扩张至500元/吨以上</li>
|
||||
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">3. 关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h3>
|
||||
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-lg text-indigo-300 mb-2">近期催化剂 (3-6个月)</h4>
|
||||
<ul class="space-y-2 custom-list text-sm">
|
||||
<li>行业开工率数据持续下降,验证减产执行力。</li>
|
||||
<li>PTA加工费、涤纶长丝吨利润等财务指标修复。</li>
|
||||
<li>印度BIS认证取消后,对印出口数据显著增长。</li>
|
||||
<li>龙头公司2026年一季报验证盈利改善。</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-lg text-indigo-300 mb-2">长期发展路径</h4>
|
||||
<ol class="space-y-2 list-decimal list-inside text-sm">
|
||||
<li><strong class="text-white">阶段一 (当前 - 2026 H1):</strong> 供给收缩与利润修复。</li>
|
||||
<li><strong class="text-white">阶段二 (2026 H2 - 2027):</strong> 格局优化与产能出清。</li>
|
||||
<li><strong class="text-white">阶段三 (2028+):</strong> 高质量发展与价值延伸(如可降解材料、化学回收)。</li>
|
||||
</ol>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">4. 产业链与核心公司剖析</h3>
|
||||
<p class="mb-4 text-gray-300">产业链呈现高度一体化趋势,从上游PX到中游PTA再到下游聚酯产品,龙头企业优势明显。</p>
|
||||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||||
<table class="table table-sm">
|
||||
<thead>
|
||||
<tr>
|
||||
<th>玩家类型</th>
|
||||
<th>代表公司</th>
|
||||
<th>竞争优势 & 逻辑</th>
|
||||
</tr>
|
||||
</thead>
|
||||
<tbody>
|
||||
<tr>
|
||||
<td class="font-bold text-cyan-400">领导者 (一体化巨头)</td>
|
||||
<td>恒力石化, 荣盛石化</td>
|
||||
<td>“原油-PX-PTA-聚酯”全产业链布局,抗风险能力最强,经营稳健。</td>
|
||||
</tr>
|
||||
<tr>
|
||||
<td class="font-bold text-purple-400">追赶者 (专注型龙头)</td>
|
||||
<td>桐昆股份, 新凤鸣</td>
|
||||
<td>涤纶长丝领域绝对龙头,业绩对“PTA-长丝”价差弹性最大,是本轮逻辑中最纯粹的标的。</td>
|
||||
</tr>
|
||||
<tr>
|
||||
<td class="font-bold text-lime-400">细分市场专家</td>
|
||||
<td>万凯新材</td>
|
||||
<td>专注于聚酯瓶片,全球领先。通过海外布局规避贸易壁垒,直接受益于瓶片环节减产。</td>
|
||||
</tr>
|
||||
</tbody>
|
||||
</table>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">5. 潜在风险与挑战</h3>
|
||||
<ul class="space-y-2 custom-list text-red-300">
|
||||
<li><strong class="text-red-200">减产同盟的脆弱性 (核心风险):</strong> 利润修复后,个别企业可能为抢占份额而打破协议。</li>
|
||||
<li><strong class="text-red-200">终端需求不及预期:</strong> 全球经济疲软及贸易摩擦可能对冲供给收缩的利好。</li>
|
||||
<li><strong class="text-red-200">成本风险:</strong> 原油价格大幅波动将冲击产业链成本和库存价值。</li>
|
||||
<li><strong class="text-red-200">信息交叉验证风险:</strong> 机构对终端需求展望存在巨大分歧,是投资决策中需重点审视的风险点。</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="glass-card rounded-xl p-6" data-aos="fade-up" data-aos-delay="200">
|
||||
<h4 class="text-xl font-bold mb-3 text-yellow-400">2028年后:稳态格局</h4>
|
||||
<ul class="text-slate-300 space-y-2 text-sm">
|
||||
<li>• CR6提升至80%以上</li>
|
||||
<li>• 形成区域价格协同机制</li>
|
||||
<li>• PTA加工费中枢250-350元/吨</li>
|
||||
<li>• 龙头从周期股转向"周期成长"</li>
|
||||
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">6. 综合结论与投资启示</h3>
|
||||
<p class="mb-2">聚酯产业已从价值毁灭阶段进入由基本面驱动的行业修复阶段。本轮上涨的核心是供给侧收缩,而非需求强劲复苏,决定了其修复的“高度”可能有限,但“确定性”相对较高。</p>
|
||||
<p class="font-semibold text-cyan-200">最具投资价值的环节是中游PTA和下游涤纶长丝。建议关注两类公司:一是桐昆股份、新凤鸣这类弹性最大的专注型龙头;二是恒力石化、荣盛石化这类经营更稳健的一体化巨头。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- Data Bento Grid Section -->
|
||||
<section class="anim-on-scroll opacity-0" style="animation-delay: 200ms;">
|
||||
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-6 text-center">多维数据透视 (Multi-dimensional Data)</h2>
|
||||
<div class="bento-grid">
|
||||
|
||||
<div class="bento-item bento-item-1 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 flex flex-col">
|
||||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">核心动态:“反内卷”与联合减产</h3>
|
||||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-4">工信部座谈会为行业“反内卷”奠定基础,产业链各环节通过主动减产应对市场压力,改善盈利状况。</p>
|
||||
<div class="space-y-4 text-sm flex-grow">
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<p class="font-semibold text-cyan-300">涤纶长丝减产:</p>
|
||||
<p class="text-gray-300">自5月起,主流大厂多轮协同减产,累计幅度显著。例如,9月三大厂再次协同减产8%-10%,持续执行“限产保价”策略。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<p class="font-semibold text-cyan-300">PTA减产:</p>
|
||||
<p class="text-gray-300">龙头五家企业(恒力、新凤鸣等)通过老装置检修/退出、新装置延期实现利润回升,预计存在超1000万吨产能的减产空间。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<p class="font-semibold text-cyan-300">聚酯瓶片减产:</p>
|
||||
<p class="text-gray-300">头部企业7月开始联合减产,开工率降至70%,利润已修复。行业四家头部企业承诺未来3年不新增产能。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<div class="bento-item bento-item-2 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 flex flex-col">
|
||||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">关键指标概览</h3>
|
||||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-2">截至研报数据,产业链利润分化,库存压力仍存。</p>
|
||||
<div id="keyMetricsChart" class="w-full h-80 flex-grow"></div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<div class="bento-item bento-item-3 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
|
||||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">产能格局展望</h3>
|
||||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">新增产能周期结束,高集中度为协同减产提供基础。</p>
|
||||
<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm custom-list mt-4">
|
||||
<li><strong class="text-white">PTA:</strong> 新增产能周期于2025年底结束,2026年或无新增。CR6集中度达74%。</li>
|
||||
<li><strong class="text-white">涤纶长丝:</strong> 未来新增产能维持2-3%低增速,低于需求增速。CR6近80%。</li>
|
||||
<li><strong class="text-white">老旧产能:</strong> 涤纶长丝有12.4%的产能投产已超20年,存在出清空间。</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- 风险提示 -->
|
||||
<section class="py-20 px-4">
|
||||
<div class="max-w-6xl mx-auto">
|
||||
<h2 class="text-4xl font-bold text-center mb-12">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
|
||||
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-4 gap-6">
|
||||
<div class="glass-card rounded-xl p-6 border-l-4 border-red-500" data-aos="flip-left">
|
||||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg mb-3 text-red-400">需求风险</h4>
|
||||
<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm">若2026年GDP增速低于5%,纺织服装消费增速降至3%以下,将削弱减产效果。需跟踪10-11月织机开工率。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="glass-card rounded-xl p-6 border-l-4 border-yellow-500" data-aos="flip-left" data-aos-delay="100">
|
||||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg mb-3 text-yellow-400">协同风险</h4>
|
||||
<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm">历史看价格回升后企业有复产冲动。但2026年无新增产能,复产即亏损,且龙头股权高度绑定,持续性较强。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="glass-card rounded-xl p-6 border-l-4 border-blue-500" data-aos="flip-left" data-aos-delay="200">
|
||||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg mb-3 text-blue-400">瓶片拖累</h4>
|
||||
<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm">瓶片2023-2024年投产过大,出口反倾销风险(美国税率77.15%)可能蔓延,抑制利润修复。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="glass-card rounded-xl p-6 border-l-4 border-purple-500" data-aos="flip-left" data-aos-delay="300">
|
||||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg mb-3 text-purple-400">政策转向</h4>
|
||||
<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm">若2026年经济下行压力增大,保供优先于反内卷,行政协调减产可能被弱化。但当前产能过剩已引发高层关注。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
<div class="bento-item bento-item-4 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
|
||||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">国际贸易与政策</h3>
|
||||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">外部环境复杂,但亦有机遇出现。</p>
|
||||
<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm custom-list mt-4">
|
||||
<li><strong class="text-white">印度撤销BIS认证:</strong> 2025年11月,印度撤销对部分聚酯产品的BIS认证,直接拉动对印出口。</li>
|
||||
<li><strong class="text-white">反倾销调查:</strong> 美国、印度、土耳其等对中国聚酯产品发起双反调查,是持续存在的外部威胁。</li>
|
||||
<li><strong class="text-white">期货市场:</strong> 郑商所积极推进聚酯板块品种对外开放,提升产业链风险管理工具。</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- 结论 -->
|
||||
<section class="py-20 px-4 gradient-bg">
|
||||
<div class="max-w-6xl mx-auto text-center">
|
||||
<h2 class="text-5xl font-bold mb-8" data-aos="fade-up">综合结论</h2>
|
||||
<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-8 mb-8" data-aos="fade-up" data-aos-delay="100">
|
||||
<p class="text-xl leading-relaxed">
|
||||
聚酯产业正站在 <strong class="text-yellow-300">"三年亏损,一朝反转"</strong> 的拐点上,由惨烈的亏损倒逼出最强的协同决心。
|
||||
这不是周期股的简单反弹,而是 <strong class="text-green-300">行业竞争格局重塑带来的估值修复</strong>。
|
||||
PTA加工费从负值修复至合理水平,长丝库存从历史高位降至历史低位,这两个极端数据的背离,恰恰揭示了最大的投资机会。
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 text-left mb-8">
|
||||
<div class="glass-card rounded-xl p-6" data-aos="fade-up" data-aos-delay="200">
|
||||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg mb-3 text-green-400">🔥 优先配置方向</h4>
|
||||
<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm">
|
||||
<li>• <strong>PTA环节</strong>:恒力石化(规模最大)、桐昆股份(双弹性)</li>
|
||||
<li>• <strong>长丝龙头</strong>:桐昆股份(1350万吨)、新凤鸣(一体化100%)</li>
|
||||
<li>• <strong>PX上游</strong>:荣盛石化(浙石化51%)</li>
|
||||
<li>• <strong>谨慎博弈</strong>:万凯新材(瓶片扭亏)</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
<div class="bento-item bento-item-5 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
|
||||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">市场观点碰撞</h3>
|
||||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">机构对终端需求判断存在巨大分歧,是核心风险点。</p>
|
||||
<div class="mt-4 space-y-3 text-sm">
|
||||
<div class="p-3 rounded-xl bg-green-500/10 border border-green-500/30">
|
||||
<p class="font-semibold text-green-300">乐观观点 (2025.11.09路演):</p>
|
||||
<p>"金九银十需求后移+冷冬+十五规划,四季度至2026年景气向上。"</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="p-3 rounded-xl bg-red-500/10 border border-red-500/30">
|
||||
<p class="font-semibold text-red-300">悲观观点 (2025.11.11路演):</p>
|
||||
<p>"成本端原油弱势、终端出口疲软,库存压力仍大...聚酯终端需求继续下滑风险。"</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="bento-item bento-item-6 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
|
||||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">市场反应案例:新乡化纤涨幅分析</h3>
|
||||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-4">2025年9月26日,新乡化纤上涨6.73%,其背后逻辑与聚酯产业“反内卷”高度相关。</p>
|
||||
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-4 text-xs">
|
||||
<div class="bg-gray-800/50 p-3 rounded-lg">
|
||||
<p class="font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-1">行业因素</p>
|
||||
<p>聚酯产业链集体上涨,市场交易“反内卷”成效。主流涤纶长丝大厂协同减产,执行“限产保价”,推动产业生态健康化。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="bg-gray-800/50 p-3 rounded-lg">
|
||||
<p class="font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-1">原材料带动</p>
|
||||
<p>原油价格高位,PTA价格受成本支撑上涨,带动化纤产品价格上涨预期。涤纶长丝产销数据火爆(日均超600%)。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="bg-gray-800/50 p-3 rounded-lg">
|
||||
<p class="font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-1">资金与情绪</p>
|
||||
<p>板块轮动效应明显,资金从高位科技股流向相对低位的化纤等周期行业。市场对行业悲观预期得到修复。</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="glass-card rounded-xl p-6" data-aos="fade-up" data-aos-delay="300">
|
||||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg mb-3 text-blue-400">📊 关键跟踪指标</h4>
|
||||
<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm">
|
||||
<li>• <strong>PTA加工费</strong>:目标从-200元→200-300元</li>
|
||||
<li>• <strong>长丝库存</strong>:目标维持15天以下</li>
|
||||
<li>• <strong>龙头开工率</strong>:12月降至82-85%</li>
|
||||
<li>• <strong>出口数据</strong>:维持25-30万吨/月</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="text-2xl font-bold text-yellow-300" data-aos="fade-up" data-aos-delay="400">
|
||||
核心策略:重仓PTA和长丝龙头,等待2026年供给拐点后的戴维斯双击
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- 页脚 -->
|
||||
<footer class="py-12 px-4 bg-slate-900 text-center">
|
||||
<p class="text-slate-500">
|
||||
本报告基于公开市场信息整理,不构成投资建议。数据来源:Wind、公司公告、行业研报、路演记录
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
</footer>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- Stock Tables Section -->
|
||||
<section class="anim-on-scroll opacity-0" style="animation-delay: 300ms;">
|
||||
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-6 text-center">产业链核心标的 (Core Stocks)</h2>
|
||||
<div class="space-y-8">
|
||||
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold mb-4 text-fuchsia-400">上游: 对二甲苯(PX)</h3>
|
||||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||||
<thead>
|
||||
<tr>
|
||||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||||
<th>核心逻辑/产能</th>
|
||||
<th>其他标签</th>
|
||||
</tr>
|
||||
</thead>
|
||||
<tbody>
|
||||
<tr><td>荣盛石化</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002493" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002493</a></td><td>现有产能1040万吨/年 (公司持股51%的浙石化是全球单体规模最大的PX生产基地)</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">产业链位置: 上游</div></td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>恒力石化</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600346" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600346</a></td><td>现有产能520万吨/年</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">产业链位置: 上游</div></td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>东方盛虹</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000301" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000301</a></td><td>现有产能280万吨/年</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">产业链位置: 上游</div></td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>恒逸石化</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000703" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000703</a></td><td>现有产能(PX、苯等化工品)参控股产能 265万吨/年</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">产业链位置: 上游</div></td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>桐昆股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601233" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">601233</a></td><td>浙石化(公司持股20%)是全球单体规模最大的PX生产基地</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">产业链位置: 上游</div></td></tr>
|
||||
</tbody>
|
||||
</table>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold mb-4 text-sky-400">中游: 精对苯二甲酸(PTA)</h3>
|
||||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||||
<thead>
|
||||
<tr>
|
||||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||||
<th>核心逻辑/产能</th>
|
||||
<th>其他标签</th>
|
||||
</tr>
|
||||
</thead>
|
||||
<tbody>
|
||||
<tr><td>恒力石化</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600346" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600346</a></td><td>现有产能1660万吨/年</td><td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">产业链位置: 中游</div></td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>恒逸石化</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000703" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000703</a></td><td>现有产能1049万吨/年 (权益产能)</td><td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">产业链位置: 中游</div></td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>荣盛石化</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002493" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002493</a></td><td>现有产能1040万吨/年</td><td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">产业链位置: 中游</div></td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>桐昆股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601233" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">601233</a></td><td>现有产能1020万吨/年</td><td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">产业链位置: 中游</div></td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>新凤鸣</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603225" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">603225</a></td><td>现有产能800万吨/年</td><td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">产业链位置: 中游</div></td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>东方盛虹</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000301" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000301</a></td><td>现有产能390万吨/年</td><td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">产业链位置: 中游</div></td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>三房巷</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600370" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600370</a></td><td>320万吨PTA技改项目稳步建设</td><td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">产业链位置: 中游</div></td></tr>
|
||||
</tbody>
|
||||
</table>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold mb-4 text-emerald-400">下游: 聚酯产品 (长丝/瓶片/短纤)</h3>
|
||||
<div class="space-y-6">
|
||||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||||
<caption><div class="text-left font-semibold p-2 text-lg">涤纶长丝</div></caption>
|
||||
<thead><tr><th>股票名称</th><th>股票代码</th><th>核心逻辑/产能</th></tr></thead>
|
||||
<tbody>
|
||||
<tr><td>桐昆股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601233" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">601233</a></td><td>现有产能1350万吨/年(涤纶长丝行业龙头)</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>新凤鸣</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603225" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">603225</a></td><td>现有产能805万吨/年,国内市场占有率超12%</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>恒逸石化</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000703" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000703</a></td><td>参控股产能涤纶长丝(含聚酯切片):677万吨/年</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>恒力石化</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600346" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600346</a></td><td>合计产能(涤纶长丝+民用丝)410万吨/年</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>东方盛虹</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000301" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000301</a></td><td>现有产能:360万吨/年</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>荣盛石化</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002493" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002493</a></td><td>现有产能:142万吨/年(POY+FDY+DTY)</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>尤夫股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002427" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002427</a></td><td>现有产能:30万吨/年(涤纶工业丝,全球排名第三)</td></tr>
|
||||
</tbody>
|
||||
</table>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||||
<caption><div class="text-left font-semibold p-2 text-lg">聚酯瓶片</div></caption>
|
||||
<thead><tr><th>股票名称</th><th>股票代码</th><th>核心逻辑/产能</th></tr></thead>
|
||||
<tbody>
|
||||
<tr><td>荣盛石化</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002493" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002493</a></td><td>现有产能:530万吨/年</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>万凯新材</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301216" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">301216</a></td><td>现有产能:300万吨/年</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>三房巷</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600370" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600370</a></td><td>现有产能:240万吨/年 (2021年国内市占率19.34%)</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>恒逸石化</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000703" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000703</a></td><td>现有产能:235万吨/年 (权益产能)</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>华润材料</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301090" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">301090</a></td><td>现有产能:210万吨/年</td></tr>
|
||||
</tbody>
|
||||
</table>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||||
<caption><div class="text-left font-semibold p-2 text-lg">涤纶短纤</div></caption>
|
||||
<thead><tr><th>股票名称</th><th>股票代码</th><th>核心逻辑/产能</th></tr></thead>
|
||||
<tbody>
|
||||
<tr><td>恒逸石化</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000703" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000703</a></td><td>参控股产能:118万吨/年</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>华西股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000936" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000936</a></td><td>现有产能:50万吨/年</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>优彩资源</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002998" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002998</a></td><td>现有产能:34.54万吨/年</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>江南高纤</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600527" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600527</a></td><td>复合短纤维产能:23万吨/年</td></tr>
|
||||
</tbody>
|
||||
</table>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
</main>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<script>
|
||||
AOS.init({
|
||||
duration: 1000,
|
||||
once: true,
|
||||
offset: 50
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
// 添加表格高亮交互
|
||||
document.querySelectorAll('.stock-table tbody tr').forEach(row => {
|
||||
row.addEventListener('mouseenter', function() {
|
||||
this.style.backgroundColor = 'rgba(59, 130, 246, 0.3)';
|
||||
this.style.transition = 'all 0.3s ease';
|
||||
});
|
||||
row.addEventListener('mouseleave', function() {
|
||||
this.style.backgroundColor = '';
|
||||
});
|
||||
document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function () {
|
||||
var chartDom = document.getElementById('keyMetricsChart');
|
||||
var myChart = echarts.init(chartDom);
|
||||
var option;
|
||||
|
||||
option = {
|
||||
tooltip: {
|
||||
trigger: 'axis',
|
||||
axisPointer: {
|
||||
type: 'shadow'
|
||||
},
|
||||
backgroundColor: 'rgba(20, 20, 50, 0.8)',
|
||||
borderColor: '#00ffff',
|
||||
textStyle: {
|
||||
color: '#E0E0E0'
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
legend: {
|
||||
data: ['利润/现金流 (元/吨)', '库存 (天)'],
|
||||
textStyle: {
|
||||
color: '#ccc'
|
||||
},
|
||||
top: '5%'
|
||||
},
|
||||
grid: {
|
||||
left: '3%',
|
||||
right: '4%',
|
||||
bottom: '3%',
|
||||
containLabel: true
|
||||
},
|
||||
xAxis: {
|
||||
type: 'value',
|
||||
boundaryGap: [0, 0.01],
|
||||
axisLabel: { color: '#ccc' },
|
||||
splitLine: { show: true, lineStyle: { color: 'rgba(255,255,255,0.1)' } }
|
||||
},
|
||||
yAxis: {
|
||||
type: 'category',
|
||||
data: ['PTA加工费', 'POY现金流', 'FDY现金流', '短纤利润', '瓶片利润'],
|
||||
axisLabel: { color: '#ccc' }
|
||||
},
|
||||
series: [
|
||||
{
|
||||
name: '利润/现金流 (元/吨)',
|
||||
type: 'bar',
|
||||
data: [108, 169, 134, 2, -276], // Data from reports
|
||||
itemStyle: {
|
||||
color: new echarts.graphic.LinearGradient(1, 0, 0, 0, [
|
||||
{ offset: 0, color: '#00ffff' },
|
||||
{ offset: 1, color: '#0055ff' }
|
||||
])
|
||||
},
|
||||
label: {
|
||||
show: true,
|
||||
position: 'right',
|
||||
formatter: '{c} 元',
|
||||
color: '#fff'
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
name: '库存 (天)',
|
||||
type: 'bar',
|
||||
data: [0, 28.9, 22.6, 22.5, 22.44], // Using 0 for PTA as not specified, others from reports
|
||||
itemStyle: {
|
||||
color: new echarts.graphic.LinearGradient(1, 0, 0, 0, [
|
||||
{ offset: 0, color: '#ff00ff' },
|
||||
{ offset: 1, color: '#8800ff' }
|
||||
])
|
||||
},
|
||||
label: {
|
||||
show: true,
|
||||
position: 'right',
|
||||
formatter: '{c} 天',
|
||||
color: '#fff'
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
option && myChart.setOption(option);
|
||||
window.addEventListener('resize', myChart.resize);
|
||||
});
|
||||
</script>
|
||||
</body>
|
||||
</html>
|
||||
</html>
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user