update pay ui

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2025-12-05 13:29:18 +08:00
parent 20994cfb13
commit 48d9c76c5e
1008 changed files with 417880 additions and 486974 deletions

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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="dark">
<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<title>阿里"千问"项目 - AI时代的未来之战</title>
<title>深度研报:阿里千问项目</title>
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js" defer></script>
<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.12.10/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
<link rel="stylesheet" href="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/font-awesome/6.5.1/css/all.min.css">
<script>
tailwind.config = {
theme: {
extend: {
colors: {
primary: '#6366f1',
secondary: '#8b5cf6',
accent: '#ec4899',
},
animation: {
'fade-in': 'fadeIn 0.6s ease-in-out',
'slide-up': 'slideUp 0.5s ease-out',
'glow': 'glow 2s ease-in-out infinite alternate',
}
}
}
}
</script>
<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.11.1/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
<style>
@keyframes fadeIn {
from { opacity: 0; transform: translateY(20px); }
to { opacity: 1; transform: translateY(0); }
@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Noto+Sans+SC:wght@300;400;500;700&family=Oxanium:wght@300;400;600;700&display=swap');
body {
font-family: 'Noto Sans SC', sans-serif;
background-color: #0c0a18;
background-image:
radial-gradient(circle at 15% 50%, rgba(88, 88, 255, 0.1), transparent 30%),
radial-gradient(circle at 85% 30%, rgba(255, 88, 203, 0.1), transparent 30%),
radial-gradient(circle at 50% 80%, rgba(88, 255, 221, 0.05), transparent 40%);
overflow-x: hidden;
}
@keyframes slideUp {
from { transform: translateY(50px); opacity: 0; }
to { transform: translateY(0); opacity: 1; }
.font-oxanium {
font-family: 'Oxanium', cursive;
}
@keyframes glow {
from { box-shadow: 0 0 20px rgba(99, 102, 241, 0.3); }
to { box-shadow: 0 0 30px rgba(139, 92, 246, 0.5); }
}
.gradient-text {
background: linear-gradient(135deg, #6366f1, #8b5cf6, #ec4899);
-webkit-background-clip: text;
-webkit-text-fill-color: transparent;
background-clip: text;
}
.timeline-item::before {
content: '';
position: absolute;
left: -6px;
top: 0;
width: 12px;
height: 12px;
background: #6366f1;
border-radius: 50%;
box-shadow: 0 0 10px #6366f1;
}
.stock-table tr:hover {
background: rgba(99, 102, 241, 0.1);
transform: scale(1.02);
.glass-card {
background: rgba(18, 16, 38, 0.4);
backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
transition: all 0.3s ease;
}
.milestone-card {
backdrop-filter: blur(10px);
border: 1px solid rgba(99, 102, 241, 0.2);
.glass-card:hover {
background: rgba(18, 16, 38, 0.6);
border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.2);
transform: translateY(-5px);
box-shadow: 0 0 30px rgba(88, 88, 255, 0.2);
}
.glow-text {
text-shadow: 0 0 8px rgba(173, 216, 230, 0.7);
}
.bento-grid {
display: grid;
gap: 1.5rem;
}
@keyframes subtle-float {
0%, 100% { transform: translateY(0); }
50% { transform: translateY(-8px); }
}
.floating-element {
animation: subtle-float 8s ease-in-out infinite;
}
.timeline-content {
position: relative;
}
.echarts-container {
width: 100%;
height: 400px;
}
</style>
</head>
<body class="bg-gradient-to-br from-slate-900 via-indigo-950 to-slate-900 text-white overflow-x-hidden">
<!-- Hero Section -->
<section class="min-h-screen flex items-center justify-center relative px-4 py-20">
<div class="absolute inset-0 bg-[radial-gradient(ellipse_at_top,_var(--tw-gradient-stops))] from-indigo-900/20 to-transparent"></div>
<div class="container mx-auto text-center relative z-10">
<div class="animate-glow inline-block mb-8">
<i class="fas fa-brain text-6xl md:text-8xl text-transparent bg-clip-text bg-gradient-to-r from-indigo-400 to-purple-500"></i>
</div>
<h1 class="text-5xl md:text-7xl font-bold gradient-text mb-6 animate-fade-in">
阿里"千问"项目
<body class="text-gray-300">
<div class="container mx-auto px-4 py-8">
<!-- Header -->
<header class="text-center mb-12">
<h1 class="text-5xl md:text-7xl font-bold font-oxanium glow-text text-white tracking-widest">
阿里“千问”项目
</h1>
<p class="text-xl md:text-2xl text-gray-300 mb-8 max-w-4xl mx-auto leading-relaxed animate-fade-in">
从B端到C端从开源模型到AI助手阿里巴巴正在打响"AI时代的未来之战"
</p>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6 mt-12 max-w-6xl mx-auto">
<div class="milestone-card bg-white/5 p-6 rounded-2xl animate-slide-up">
<div class="text-3xl font-bold text-indigo-400 mb-2">2000亿+</div>
<div class="text-gray-400">周Token调用量</div>
</div>
<div class="milestone-card bg-white/5 p-6 rounded-2xl animate-slide-up" style="animation-delay: 0.2s;">
<div class="text-3xl font-bold text-purple-400 mb-2">2亿+</div>
<div class="text-gray-400">开源模型下载量</div>
</div>
<div class="milestone-card bg-white/5 p-6 rounded-2xl animate-slide-up" style="animation-delay: 0.4s;">
<div class="text-3xl font-bold text-pink-400 mb-2">3800亿</div>
<div class="text-gray-400">AI基础设施投入</div>
</div>
<p class="mt-4 text-lg text-primary">深度投研报告</p>
<div class="mt-4 text-xs text-gray-500 max-w-2xl mx-auto p-2 border border-gray-700 rounded-lg">
<p>由 北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现</p>
<p>免责声明本报告由AI基于公开信息合成旨在提供研究参考不构成任何投资建议。投资有风险决策需谨慎。</p>
</div>
</div>
</section>
</header>
<!-- Timeline Section -->
<section class="py-20 px-4">
<div class="container mx-auto max-w-6xl">
<h2 class="text-4xl font-bold text-center mb-16 gradient-text">项目发展时间轴</h2>
<div class="relative">
<div class="absolute left-4 md:left-1/2 h-full w-0.5 bg-gradient-to-b from-indigo-500 to-purple-500"></div>
<div class="space-y-12">
<div class="timeline-item relative pl-16 md:pl-0 md:w-1/2 md:pr-8 md:text-right animate-fade-in">
<div class="bg-white/5 backdrop-blur-sm p-6 rounded-2xl border border-indigo-500/20">
<div class="text-indigo-400 font-bold text-sm mb-2">2025年11月13日</div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">千问项目官宣</h3>
<p class="text-gray-400">秘密启动"千问"项目基于Qwen最强模型打造个人AI助手APP全面对标ChatGPT被核心管理层视为"AI时代的未来之战"</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item relative pl-16 md:pl-0 md:w-1/2 md:ml-auto md:pl-8 animate-fade-in" style="animation-delay: 0.2s;">
<div class="bg-white/5 backdrop-blur-sm p-6 rounded-2xl border border-purple-500/20">
<div class="text-purple-400 font-bold text-sm mb-2">2025年7月28日</div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">API调用量跃居全球第四</h3>
<p class="text-gray-400">千问以10.4%市场份额超越OpenAI单周总调用量超2000亿Tokens在OpenRouter平台成长最快模型中包揽前三</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item relative pl-16 md:pl-0 md:w-1/2 md:pr-8 md:text-right animate-fade-in" style="animation-delay: 0.4s;">
<div class="bg-white/5 backdrop-blur-sm p-6 rounded-2xl border border-indigo-500/20">
<div class="text-indigo-400 font-bold text-sm mb-2">2025年4月29日</div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">Qwen3系列正式发布</h3>
<p class="text-gray-400">开源Qwen3系列模型旗舰模型Qwen3-235B-A22B在编码、数学、通用能力等基准评估中达到国际顶尖水平</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item relative pl-16 md:pl-0 md:w-1/2 md:ml-auto md:pl-8 animate-fade-in" style="animation-delay: 0.6s;">
<div class="bg-white/5 backdrop-blur-sm p-6 rounded-2xl border border-purple-500/20">
<div class="text-purple-400 font-bold text-sm mb-2">2025年1月29日</div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">Qwen2.5-Max发布</h3>
<p class="text-gray-400">旗舰版模型发布预训练数据超20万亿tokens在多项基准测试中表现优异</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Core Logic Section -->
<section class="py-20 px-4">
<div class="container mx-auto max-w-6xl">
<h2 class="text-4xl font-bold text-center mb-16 gradient-text">核心逻辑与市场认知</h2>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-8">
<div class="bg-gradient-to-br from-indigo-500/10 to-purple-500/10 p-8 rounded-2xl border border-indigo-500/30 backdrop-blur-sm animate-slide-up">
<div class="text-4xl mb-4 text-indigo-400">
<i class="fas fa-layer-group"></i>
</div>
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4">技术底座优势</h3>
<!-- Bento Grid for Core Insights -->
<main class="space-y-16">
<section class="bento-grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-3">
<div class="lg:col-span-2 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold font-oxanium text-white mb-4">核心观点摘要</h2>
<p class="text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">
<span class="text-indigo-400 font-semibold">开源生态滚雪球:</span>下载量突破2亿次衍生模型超9万个<br><br>
<span class="text-purple-400 font-semibold">成本革命:</span>千问3 MAX训练成本降低超90%,打破"大模型烧钱诅咒"<br><br>
<span class="text-pink-400 font-semibold">市场低估:</span>已构建"低成本+高性能"工业化量产能力
阿里“千问”项目是其在AI时代下leveraging其全球领先的开源模型生态Qwen与深厚的商业场景电商、本地生活、支付进行的一次从B端ToB向C端ToC的战略核心转移。当前该概念正处于由宏大叙事和海量用户数据驱动的<strong class="text-accent">应用层炒作初期</strong>其核心驱动力是打造一个“超级AI入口”的巨大想象空间。然而其长期价值能否兑现取决于能否在激烈的技术竞争中尤其面对DeepSeek等竞品弥合性能差距并成功探索出可持续的C端商业化路径。
</p>
</div>
<div class="bg-gradient-to-br from-purple-500/10 to-pink-500/10 p-8 rounded-2xl border border-purple-500/30 backdrop-blur-sm animate-slide-up" style="animation-delay: 0.2s;">
<div class="text-4xl mb-4 text-purple-400">
<i class="fas fa-exchange-alt"></i>
</div>
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4">战略卡位升级</h3>
<p class="text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">
<span class="text-purple-400 font-semibold">B端壁垒</span>API调用量全球第四客户切换成本极高<br><br>
<span class="text-pink-400 font-semibold">C端意义</span>不仅是独立APP更是改造阿里10亿用户生态的智能中枢<br><br>
<span class="text-indigo-400 font-semibold">独特闭环:</span>电商+支付场景构成差异化竞争护城河
</p>
</div>
<div class="bg-gradient-to-br from-pink-500/10 to-indigo-500/10 p-8 rounded-2xl border border-pink-500/30 backdrop-blur-sm animate-slide-up" style="animation-delay: 0.4s;">
<div class="text-4xl mb-4 text-pink-400">
<i class="fas fa-server"></i>
</div>
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4">基础设施兑现</h3>
<p class="text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">
<span class="text-pink-400 font-semibold">3800亿投入</span>构建全栈算力闭环,自研平头哥芯片优化成本<br><br>
<span class="text-indigo-400 font-semibold">收入验证:</span>阿里云AI收入保持三位数增速占比已达10%左右<br><br>
<span class="text-purple-400 font-semibold">估值重塑:</span>从卖铲子到挖金矿云业务估值有望对标AWS
</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Stock Data Section -->
<section class="py-20 px-4">
<div class="container mx-auto max-w-7xl">
<h2 class="text-4xl font-bold text-center mb-16 gradient-text">产业链核心公司</h2>
<!-- Category Tabs -->
<div class="tabs tabs-boxed bg-white/5 p-2 rounded-full mb-8 flex flex-wrap justify-center gap-2">
<button class="tab tab-active rounded-full px-4 py-2" onclick="showCategory('all')">全部公司</button>
<button class="tab rounded-full px-4 py-2" onclick="showCategory('idc')">数据中心/算力</button>
<button class="tab rounded-full px-4 py-2" onclick="showCategory('ecommerce')">电商生态</button>
<button class="tab rounded-full px-4 py-2" onclick="showCategory('investment')">战略投资</button>
</div>
<!-- Table -->
<div class="overflow-x-auto rounded-2xl bg-white/5 backdrop-blur-sm border border-white/10">
<table class="table stock-table w-full">
<thead class="bg-gradient-to-r from-indigo-600/50 to-purple-600/50">
<tr class="text-white">
<th class="py-4 px-6 text-center">股票名称</th>
<th class="py-4 px-6 text-center">关联类别</th>
<th class="py-4 px-6 text-center">相关性描述</th>
<th class="py-4 px-6 text-center">投资评级</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody id="stockTableBody" class="divide-y divide-white/10">
<!-- 数据中心/算力 -->
<tr class="idc-row animate-fade-in">
<td class="py-4 px-6 font-semibold text-indigo-400">数据港</td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-center"><span class="badge badge-primary">数据中心/算力</span></td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-gray-300">阿里华东区主要数据节点,机柜上架率提升确定性强</td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-center"><span class="badge badge-success font-bold">领导者</span></td>
</tr>
<tr class="idc-row animate-fade-in">
<td class="py-4 px-6 font-semibold text-indigo-400">润建股份</td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-center"><span class="badge badge-primary">数据中心/算力</span></td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-gray-300">与阿里云合资"中国-东盟智算云",逻辑最纯粹标的</td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-center"><span class="badge badge-success font-bold">逻辑纯粹</span></td>
</tr>
<tr class="idc-row animate-fade-in">
<td class="py-4 px-6 font-semibold text-indigo-400">杭钢股份</td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-center"><span class="badge badge-primary">数据中心/算力</span></td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-gray-300">浙江云公司主动对接阿里需求已投运1069个机柜可运行服务器2.1万台</td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-center"><span class="badge badge-warning font-bold">追赶者</span></td>
</tr>
<tr class="idc-row animate-fade-in">
<td class="py-4 px-6 font-semibold text-indigo-400">宝信软件</td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-center"><span class="badge badge-primary">数据中心/算力</span></td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-gray-300">宝之云园区作为阿里华东区主要数据节点之一</td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-center"><span class="badge badge-success font-bold">领导者</span></td>
</tr>
<tr class="idc-row animate-fade-in">
<td class="py-4 px-6 font-semibold text-indigo-400">浪潮信息</td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-center"><span class="badge badge-primary">数据中心/算力</span></td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-gray-300">阿里服务器采购份额最高,硬件龙头地位稳固</td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-center"><span class="badge badge-info font-bold">基础设施</span></td>
</tr>
<!-- 电商生态 -->
<tr class="ecommerce-row animate-fade-in">
<td class="py-4 px-6 font-semibold text-purple-400">光云科技</td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-center"><span class="badge badge-secondary">电商</span></td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-gray-300">阿里授予"复购/好评榜第一",垂直场景卡位精准,将直接受益于广告货币化率提升</td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-center"><span class="badge badge-success font-bold">领导者</span></td>
</tr>
<tr class="ecommerce-row animate-fade-in">
<td class="py-4 px-6 font-semibold text-purple-400">壹网壹创</td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-center"><span class="badge badge-secondary">电商</span></td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-gray-300">阿里首批AI Agent生态合作伙伴Agent生态稀缺标的</td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-center"><span class="badge badge-accent font-bold">高弹性</span></td>
</tr>
<tr class="ecommerce-row animate-fade-in">
<td class="py-4 px-6 font-semibold text-purple-400">丽人丽妆</td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-center"><span class="badge badge-secondary">电商</span></td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-gray-300">阿里妈妈长期生态合作伙伴</td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-center"><span class="badge badge-info font-bold">生态合作</span></td>
</tr>
<tr class="ecommerce-row animate-fade-in">
<td class="py-4 px-6 font-semibold text-purple-400">值得买</td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-center"><span class="badge badge-secondary">电商</span></td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-gray-300">阿里爸爸重要合作伙伴,通过"什么值得买"提供信息推广服务</td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-center"><span class="badge badge-info font-bold">生态合作</span></td>
</tr>
<!-- 战略投资 -->
<tr class="investment-row animate-fade-in">
<td class="py-4 px-6 font-semibold text-pink-400">三江购物</td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-center"><span class="badge badge-accent">参股消费</span></td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-gray-300">阿里系持有公司总股本30%,仅财务投资,无业务协同</td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-center"><span class="badge badge-error font-bold">规避风险</span></td>
</tr>
<tr class="investment-row animate-fade-in">
<td class="py-4 px-6 font-semibold text-pink-400">石基信息</td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-center"><span class="badge badge-accent">参股消费</span></td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-gray-300">阿里系持有公司总股本13.02%,仅财务投资,无业务协同</td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-center"><span class="badge badge-error font-bold">规避风险</span></td>
</tr>
<tr class="investment-row animate-fade-in">
<td class="py-4 px-6 font-semibold text-pink-400">美年健康</td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-center"><span class="badge badge-accent">参股医疗</span></td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-gray-300">阿里系持有公司总股本10.04%</td>
<td class="py-4 px-6 text-center"><span class="badge badge-warning font-bold">观察</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div class="text-center mt-8 text-gray-400">
<p>完整表格包含50+公司涵盖IDC、服务器、交换机、电商、医疗等全链条</p>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Risk Analysis -->
<section class="py-20 px-4">
<div class="container mx-auto max-w-6xl">
<h2 class="text-4xl font-bold text-center mb-16 gradient-text">风险与挑战</h2>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-8">
<div class="bg-red-500/10 border border-red-500/30 p-6 rounded-2xl backdrop-blur-sm animate-slide-up">
<div class="text-3xl mb-4 text-red-400">
<i class="fas fa-exclamation-triangle"></i>
</div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-red-300">技术风险</h3>
<ul class="space-y-2 text-gray-300 text-sm">
<li>• 思维链能力短板:当前更多是基座模型而非推理模型</li>
<li>• Agent工具缺失MCP多工具调用仍出现错误</li>
<li>• 与DeepSeek-R1等推理模型存在差距</li>
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 floating-element" style="animation-delay: -2s;">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold font-oxanium text-white mb-4">核心驱动力</h2>
<ul class="space-y-3">
<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-primary mr-3 mt-1"></span><div><strong class="text-white">战略转型驱动:</strong>打造超级AI入口盘活集团生态体系。</div></li>
<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-primary mr-3 mt-1"></span><div><strong class="text-white">技术开源驱动:</strong>构建“AI时代的安卓”以庞大开发者生态为基石。</div></li>
<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-primary mr-3 mt-1"></span><div><strong class="text-white">商业闭环驱动:</strong>“场景即护城河”,实现信息获取到服务完成的无缝闭环。</div></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="bg-yellow-500/10 border border-yellow-500/30 p-6 rounded-2xl backdrop-blur-sm animate-slide-up" style="animation-delay: 0.2s;">
<div class="text-3xl mb-4 text-yellow-400">
<i class="fas fa-dollar-sign"></i>
</div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-yellow-300">商业化风险</h3>
<ul class="space-y-2 text-gray-300 text-sm">
<li>• C端用户获取成本高昂ROI可能为负</li>
<li>• B端客户谨慎市场增长主要来自存量客户</li>
<li>• 阿里影业虚拟拍摄技术仍处于亏损状态</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="bg-blue-500/10 border border-blue-500/30 p-6 rounded-2xl backdrop-blur-sm animate-slide-up" style="animation-delay: 0.4s;">
<div class="text-3xl mb-4 text-blue-400">
<i class="fas fa-shield-alt"></i>
</div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-blue-300">竞争与政策风险</h3>
<ul class="space-y-2 text-gray-300 text-sm">
<li>• Llama 3.3发布后千问排名降至第二/三位</li>
<li>• 开源模型竞争加剧,存在赢者通吃效应</li>
<li>• 苹果AI合作涉及数据跨境面临监管审查</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Investment Insights -->
<section class="py-20 px-4">
<div class="container mx-auto max-w-6xl">
<h2 class="text-4xl font-bold text-center mb-16 gradient-text">投资启示</h2>
<div class="bg-white/5 rounded-3xl p-8 md:p-12 backdrop-blur-sm border border-white/10">
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-8 items-center">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-indigo-400">优先级排序</h3>
<div class="space-y-4">
<div class="flex items-center gap-4 p-4 bg-indigo-500/10 rounded-xl border border-indigo-500/30">
<div class="text-2xl text-indigo-400">🥇</div>
<div>
<div class="font-bold text-lg">算力基础设施</div>
<div class="text-gray-400 text-sm">数据港、万国数据、浪潮信息(订单可见度高)</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="flex items-center gap-4 p-4 bg-purple-500/10 rounded-xl border border-purple-500/30">
<div class="text-2xl text-purple-400">🥈</div>
<div>
<div class="font-bold text-lg">电商生态服务商</div>
<div class="text-gray-400 text-sm">光云科技、壹网壹创(直接受益广告货币化)</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="flex items-center gap-4 p-4 bg-yellow-500/10 rounded-xl border border-yellow-500/30">
<div class="text-2xl text-yellow-400">🥉</div>
<div>
<div class="font-bold text-lg">垂直场景龙头</div>
<div class="text-gray-400 text-sm">阿里健康、阿里影业(节奏风险,谨慎配置)</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="lg:col-span-3 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold font-oxanium text-white mb-4">市场预期差分析:性能与成本</h2>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-4">市场普遍认为Qwen模型技术全球领先但路演数据显示其在关键能力和成本控制上与顶级竞品存在差距这构成了当前概念最大的风险与预期差。</p>
<div id="performanceChart" class="echarts-container"></div>
</div>
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 floating-element" style="animation-delay: -4s;">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold font-oxanium text-white mb-4">近期关键催化剂</h2>
<ul class="space-y-3">
<li><strong class="text-info">Agent功能落地</strong>验证“超级入口”逻辑的关键一步。</li>
<li><strong class="text-info">苹果合作确认:</strong>若官宣,将是短期最强股价催化剂。</li>
<li><strong class="text-info">DAU/API调用量</strong>持续高增长将强化平台价值。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="lg:col-span-2 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold font-oxanium text-white mb-4">产业链图谱</h2>
<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row justify-around text-center">
<div class="p-4">
<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-secondary">上游AI基础设施</h3>
<p class="text-sm">算力/数据中心 (数据港, 杭钢股份)</p>
<p class="text-sm">服务器/芯片 (浪潮信息, 海光信息)</p>
<p class="text-sm">网络设备/光模块 (紫光股份, 中际旭创)</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="animate-fade-in" style="animation-delay: 0.2s;">
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-purple-400">关键跟踪指标</h3>
<div class="space-y-3 text-gray-300">
<div class="flex justify-between items-center p-3 bg-white/5 rounded-lg">
<span>API周调用量增速</span>
<span class="text-indigo-400 font-bold">2000亿→5000亿Tokens</span>
</div>
<div class="flex justify-between items-center p-3 bg-white/5 rounded-lg">
<span>阿里云AI收入占比</span>
<span class="text-purple-400 font-bold">10%→15%+</span>
</div>
<div class="flex justify-between items-center p-3 bg-white/5 rounded-lg">
<span>千问APP月活(MAU)</span>
<span class="text-pink-400 font-bold">5000万目标</span>
</div>
<div class="flex justify-between items-center p-3 bg-white/5 rounded-lg">
<span>30日留存率</span>
<span class="text-green-400 font-bold">>30%</span>
</div>
<div class="p-4 border-t-2 md:border-t-0 md:border-l-2 border-dashed border-gray-700">
<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-accent">中游:模型与平台</h3>
<p class="text-sm">核心主体 (阿里巴巴)</p>
<p class="text-sm">模型训练合作 (昆仑万维)</p>
</div>
<div class="p-4 border-t-2 md:border-t-0 md:border-l-2 border-dashed border-gray-700">
<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-primary">下游:应用与生态</h3>
<p class="text-sm">阿里内部生态 (淘宝, 高德, 钉钉)</p>
<p class="text-sm">核心生态伙伴 (石基信息, 光云科技)</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="mt-12 p-6 bg-gradient-to-r from-indigo-500/20 to-purple-500/20 rounded-2xl border border-indigo-500/30">
<h4 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-center">结论</h4>
<p class="text-gray-300 text-center leading-relaxed text-lg">
阿里"千问"项目具备<strong class="text-indigo-400">"基本面打底+主题催化"</strong>的双重属性,当前处于"技术兑现期向商业化爆发期过渡"的关键节点。<br>
<span class="text-purple-400">2025年Q4至2026年Q1</span>是验证窗口期若C端APP数据超预期或苹果合作落地将引发戴维斯双击。
</p>
</section>
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<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<h2 class="text-2xl text-center font-bold font-oxanium text-white mb-10">项目发展路径与时间轴</h2>
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<!-- Item 1: 左侧 (2024) -->
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<div class="timeline-middle">
<!-- 霓虹灯光点 -->
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-primary glow-text">
<path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.137-.089l4-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" />
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<div class="timeline-start mb-10 md:text-end w-full md:w-auto">
<div class="glass-card p-4 rounded-xl border border-primary/30 hover:border-primary transition-colors">
<time class="font-oxanium text-sm text-gray-400">~2024</time>
<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-primary mt-1">技术奠基期</h3>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-2">通义千问(Qwen)模型在开源社区崭露头角,登顶全球榜单,积累技术声誉。</p>
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<p class="text-gray-400 mb-4">基于真实行业洞察与数据分析</p>
<p class="text-gray-500 text-sm">生成时间2025年11月 | 数据来源:公开新闻、路演纪要、工商信息</p>
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<!-- Item 2: 右侧 (年初) -->
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<path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.137-.089l4-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" />
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<!-- timeline-end 在桌面端显示在右侧/下方 -->
<div class="timeline-end mb-10 w-full md:w-auto">
<div class="glass-card p-4 rounded-xl border border-primary/30 hover:border-primary transition-colors">
<time class="font-oxanium text-sm text-gray-400">年初~2025.11</time>
<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-primary mt-1">战略酝酿期</h3>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-2">宣布投入3800亿建设AI基建秘密启动“千问”项目定位“AI时代的未来之战”。</p>
</div>
</div>
<hr class="bg-accent/30"/>
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<path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.137-.089l4-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" />
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<div class="timeline-start mb-10 md:text-end w-full md:w-auto">
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<time class="font-oxanium text-sm text-white">2025.11.17</time>
<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-accent mt-1">正式引爆</h3>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-2">千问APP上线公测一周下载量破1000万标志战略重心向C端倾斜。</p>
</div>
</div>
<hr class="bg-secondary/30"/>
</li>
<!-- Item 4: 右侧 (当前) -->
<li>
<hr class="bg-secondary/30"/>
<div class="timeline-middle">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-secondary glow-text">
<path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.137-.089l4-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" />
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<div class="glass-card p-4 rounded-xl border border-secondary/30 hover:border-secondary transition-colors">
<time class="font-oxanium text-sm text-gray-400">当前-2026</time>
<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-secondary mt-1">“入口”确立期</h3>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-2">核心任务是完善Agent功能深度整合阿里内部应用迅速扩大用户基数。</p>
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</div>
<hr class="bg-secondary/30"/>
</li>
<!-- Item 5: 左侧 (2026-2028) -->
<li>
<hr class="bg-secondary/30"/>
<div class="timeline-middle">
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<path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.137-.089l4-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" />
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</div>
<div class="timeline-start mb-10 md:text-end w-full md:w-auto">
<div class="glass-card p-4 rounded-xl border border-secondary/30 hover:border-secondary transition-colors">
<time class="font-oxanium text-sm text-gray-400">2026-2028</time>
<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-secondary mt-1">“生态”开放期</h3>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-2">通过开放API和AI Agent Store将千问平台化打造AI应用“分发中心”。</p>
</div>
</div>
<hr class="bg-gray-700"/>
</li>
<!-- Item 6: 右侧 (2028以后) -->
<li>
<hr class="bg-gray-700"/>
<div class="timeline-middle">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-gray-500 glow-text">
<path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.137-.089l4-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" />
</svg>
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<div class="timeline-end mb-10 w-full md:w-auto">
<div class="glass-card p-4 rounded-xl border border-gray-700 hover:border-white transition-colors">
<time class="font-oxanium text-sm text-gray-400">2028以后</time>
<h3 class="font-bold text-gray-400 mt-1">“商业化”成熟期</h3>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-2">探索订阅制、应用商店分成、广告佣金等多元化商业模式,实现盈利。</p>
</div>
</div>
</li>
</ul>
</section>
<h2 class="text-2xl text-center font-bold font-oxanium text-white mb-10">项目发展路径与时间轴</h2>
<div class="timeline max-w-4xl mx-auto">
<!-- Item 1 -->
<div class="timeline-item">
<div class="timeline-content glass-card p-4 rounded-xl">
<h3 class="font-bold text-primary">~2024: 技术奠基期</h3>
<p class="text-sm">通义千问(Qwen)模型在开源社区崭露头角,登顶全球榜单,积累技术声誉。</p>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Item 2 -->
<div class="timeline-item">
<div class="timeline-content glass-card p-4 rounded-xl">
<h3 class="font-bold text-primary">年初~2025.11: 战略酝酿期</h3>
<p class="text-sm">宣布投入3800亿建设AI基建秘密启动“千问”项目定位“AI时代的未来之战”。</p>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Item 3 -->
<div class="timeline-item">
<div class="timeline-content glass-card p-4 rounded-xl">
<h3 class="font-bold text-accent">2025.11.17: 正式引爆</h3>
<p class="text-sm">千问APP上线公测一周下载量破1000万标志战略重心向C端倾斜。</p>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Item 4 -->
<div class="timeline-item">
<div class="timeline-content glass-card p-4 rounded-xl">
<h3 class="font-bold text-secondary">当前-2026: “入口”确立期</h3>
<p class="text-sm">核心任务是完善Agent功能深度整合阿里内部应用迅速扩大用户基数。</p>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Item 5 -->
<div class="timeline-item">
<div class="timeline-content glass-card p-4 rounded-xl">
<h3 class="font-bold text-secondary">2026-2028: “生态”开放期</h3>
<p class="text-sm">通过开放API和AI Agent Store将千问平台化打造AI应用“分发中心”。</p>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Item 6 -->
<div class="timeline-item">
<div class="timeline-content glass-card p-4 rounded-xl">
<h3 class="font-bold text-secondary">2028以后: “商业化”成熟期</h3>
<p class="text-sm">探索订阅制、应用商店分成、广告佣金等多元化商业模式,实现盈利。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Detailed Data (Accordions) -->
<section class="space-y-4">
<h2 class="text-3xl text-center font-bold font-oxanium text-white mb-8">多源情报深度解析</h2>
<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card rounded-2xl">
<input type="radio" name="my-accordion-2" id="insight-details"/>
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核心逻辑与市场认知 (Insight)
</label>
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<div class="p-4 space-y-4">
<p><strong>信息交叉验证风险:</strong>最显著的矛盾点在于模型性能。新闻稿中“登顶榜首”、“赶超GPT-4”的宣传性表述与路演纪要中“落后于DeepSeek V3”、“思维链需突破”的内部测评结论存在明显冲突。这表明投资者需审慎看待其公开宣传的技术实力其“护城河”可能不如市场想象的那么深。</p>
<p><strong>商业化风险:</strong>C端盈利模式模糊目前完全免费。同时路演指出其推理成本远高于竞品是DeepSeek的5.6倍),在“百模大战”和价格战的背景下,高昂的成本可能侵蚀其利润空间,使其陷入“用户越多、亏损越大”的困境。</p>
<p><strong>综合结论:</strong>项目目前明确处于<strong>主题炒作与基本面预期注入的混合阶段</strong>。其“超级AI入口”的故事极具吸引力但核心技术尚未与顶尖竞品拉开差距商业模式尚在探索。这是一个高想象空间与高不确定性并存的典型“成长股”概念。</p>
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新闻数据摘要
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<div class="collapse-content text-gray-400">
<div class="p-4 space-y-2">
<p><strong>项目启动与战略定位:</strong>秘密启动“千问”项目全面对标ChatGPT内部定位为“AI时代的未来之战”。战略重心从B端市场向C端倾斜全力进军AI to C。</p>
<p><strong>千问APP</strong>定位“会聊天能办事的个人AI助手”基于全球性能第一的开源模型Qwen3。公测一周下载量突破1000万次超越ChatGPT、Sora成为史上增长最快的AI应用之一。深度融合夸克AI浏览器成为桌面级智能助理。</p>
<p><strong>技术与模型:</strong>发布并开源Qwen3系列模型多次登顶全球开源模型榜首。旗舰版Qwen2.5-Max预训练数据超过20万亿tokens。</p>
<p><strong>生态与应用:</strong>头部物流企业(圆通、顺丰等)已全部接入。中科院多个研究机构接入。核心商业伙伴包括石基信息(酒店)、数据港/杭钢股份(算力)、值得买(数据服务)等。</p>
<p><strong>市场影响力:</strong>千问API调用量跃居全球第四超越OpenAI。开源模型下载量突破2亿衍生模型数量突破10万稳居全球第一。</p>
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路演纪要精粹
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<p><strong>性能对比 (2025-04-29):</strong> 在Agent测评中千问3在阿里自有平台优化下表现优异但在第三方中立平台表现不稳。DeepSeek的Cloud模型可同时控制100个软件目前最强。国内模型梯队被认为是Cloud > DeepSeek V3 > 千问3 > 豆包。</p>
<p><strong>成本对比 (2025-02-03):</strong> 阿里Max模型100万Token收费44.5元是DeepSeek的5.6倍。推理速度慢于V3训练成本更高。</p>
<p><strong>战略升级 (2025-11-26):</strong> “通义”全面升级为“千问”战略重心由ToB延伸至ToC目标打造DAU破亿的通用Chatbot并计划全球发布。</p>
<p><strong>APP战略 (2025-11-25):</strong> 千问App目标不是问答而是“城市入口的入口”。商业路径是通过屏幕理解+Agent直接调用淘宝、天猫、支付宝等自有APP实现“拍照→比价→自动下单→支付→物流”闭环。</p>
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<p><strong>项目定位与市场表现:</strong>定位为“阿里最强大模型官方AI助手”公测上线两天冲入App Store总榜第三。反映了阿里AI战略重心向C端倾斜。</p>
<p><strong>商业目标:</strong>希望借助Qwen开源优势赢得竞争并打通阿里应用生态建立商业闭环。未来一到两年内有望被打造成新的高频超级入口。</p>
<p><strong>技术基础:</strong>旗舰级模型Qwen3-Max参数量突破1万亿与GPT-4规模差距缩小。通义千问2.5性能全面赶超GPT-4 Turbo。</p>
<p><strong>生态系统:</strong>通义系列模型已成为全球第一大开源模型族累计下载量突破6亿次。希望借助零售、外卖、旅行等完备生态实现全局突破。</p>
<p><strong>算力投入:</strong>未来三年将投入超3800亿元建设云和AI硬件基础设施。千问APP使用量放大将带动AI算力投资进一步扩张。</p>
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<p class="text-sm mt-2"><strong>驱动:</strong>国内酒店信息管理系统龙头阿里为二股东。千问APP酒店预订功能将直接调用其系统受益路径直接。</p>
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