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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<title>深度行研报告：除草剂-烯草酮</title>
<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.10.2/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
<script defer src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js"></script>
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
<style>
@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Manrope:wght@300;400;500;700&display=swap');
body {
font-family: 'Manrope', 'Noto Sans SC', sans-serif;
background-color: #020010;
background-image:
radial-gradient(at 20% 20%, hsla(212, 80%, 30%, 0.3) 0px, transparent 50%),
radial-gradient(at 80% 20%, hsla(280, 75%, 25%, 0.3) 0px, transparent 50%),
radial-gradient(at 50% 80%, hsla(330, 80%, 40%, 0.2) 0px, transparent 50%);
overflow-x: hidden;
}
.glass-card {
background: rgba(15, 12, 41, 0.5);
backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
transition: all 0.3s ease;
}
.glass-card:hover {
background: rgba(15, 12, 41, 0.7);
border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.2);
transform: translateY(-5px);
box-shadow: 0 10px 30px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2);
}
.bento-grid {
display: grid;
gap: 1rem;
grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fit, minmax(300px, 1fr));
}
.glow-divider {
height: 1px;
background: linear-gradient(90deg, transparent, rgba(0, 255, 255, 0.3), transparent);
border: none;
}
.text-accent-glow {
color: #67e8f9;
text-shadow: 0 0 8px rgba(103, 232, 249, 0.5);
}
</style>
</head>
<body class="text-gray-200 min-h-screen">
<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
<!-- Header -->
<header class="text-center mb-12 relative">
<div class="absolute inset-0 -z-10 bg-[radial-gradient(ellipse_at_center,rgba(167,139,250,0.2)_0%,rgba(167,139,250,0)_70%)]"></div>
<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold tracking-tighter text-transparent bg-clip-text bg-gradient-to-br from-white to-purple-300 mb-2">
除草剂-烯草酮
</h1>
<p class="text-lg md:text-xl text-purple-200 opacity-80">深度行研报告</p>
<p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-4">
北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现。本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。
</p>
</header>
<!-- Bento Grid - Key Insights -->
<section class="mb-16">
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-4 gap-6">
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 col-span-1 md:col-span-2 lg:col-span-2 row-span-2 flex flex-col justify-between">
<div>
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold text-accent-glow mb-3">核心事件：供给侧黑天鹅</h3>
<p class="text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">
行业龙头一帆生物（市占率~30%）宁夏工厂因安全事故于2023年末首次停产，并于2025年4月复产后再次发生事故，导致供给端出现巨大且持续的刚性缺口。市场普遍预期其年内复产无望，彻底打破全球烯草酮市场供需平衡。
</p>
</div>
<div class="mt-4 text-sm text-gray-400">
<span class="font-semibold text-error">●</span> 2023.11: 首次停产
<span class="font-semibold text-error ml-4">●</span> 2025.04: 复产后再次事故
</div>
</div>
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-accent-glow mb-2">价格飙升</h3>
<p class="text-4xl font-bold tracking-tight">7.3 <span class="text-lg">万</span> → 16 <span class="text-lg">万</span></p>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-1">2025年2月至6月，价格涨幅超119%</p>
</div>
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-accent-glow mb-2">供需缺口</h3>
<p class="text-4xl font-bold tracking-tight">~33%</p>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-1">旺季月需求约4500吨，有效供给不足3000吨</p>
</div>
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-accent-glow mb-2">市场状态</h3>
<p class="text-2xl font-bold tracking-tight">严重缺货</p>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-1">行业库存清零，厂商停报停签</p>
</div>
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-accent-glow mb-2">核心受益者</h3>
<p class="text-2xl font-bold tracking-tight">先达股份</p>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-1">最大在产有效产能龙头</p>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Main Content -->
<main class="space-y-12">
<!-- Price Chart -->
<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-accent-glow">价格走势与事件驱动</h2>
<div id="priceChart" class="w-full h-96"></div>
</section>
<!-- Core Logic -->
<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-6 text-center text-transparent bg-clip-text bg-gradient-to-br from-white to-purple-300">概念核心逻辑与市场认知</h2>
<hr class="glow-divider my-6">
<div class="space-y-8">
<div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3 text-accent-glow">核心驱动力：供给刚性收缩下的价格高弹性</h3>
<ul class="space-y-3 list-disc list-inside text-gray-300">
<li><strong class="text-white">寡头垄断格局：</strong> 研报数据显示行业CR3高达65.22%（一帆生物、先达股份、河北兰升），高度集中的市场结构意味着龙头停产即重创全球供给。</li>
<li><strong class="text-white">“黑天鹅”事件：</strong> 一帆生物（市场份额25%-30%）两次停产，复产面临安全、高温、成本、许可证等多重障碍，路演与新闻交叉验证其短期复产几乎不可能。</li>
<li><strong class="text-white">供需严重错配：</strong> 多源数据测算，行业旺季月度需求约4000-4500吨，而有效月度供给骤降至2500-2700吨，形成约1/3的刚性缺口。
<blockquote class="text-sm text-gray-400 border-l-2 border-cyan-500 pl-4 mt-2">
“我们预计行业月度需求量约4000吨，目前的行业供给量不到3000吨，存在明显的供给缺口。” - 新闻数据
</blockquote>
</li>
<li><strong class="text-white">低库存与弱替代性：</strong> 路演和新闻均指出“当前没有库存”。替代品（如精喹禾灵）因作用作物不完全重叠且价格更高（15.3万元/吨），短期无法有效填补缺口。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<hr class="glow-divider">
<div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3 text-accent-glow">市场热度与情绪：高度乐观，聚焦价格</h3>
<p>研报从2月开始密集跟踪，新闻报道随价格上涨而升温。市场情绪高度一致，普遍极度看好价格持续上涨。价格预测从最初的“9-10万”被一路乐观上调至“15万甚至更高”。</p>
</div>
<hr class="glow-divider">
<div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3 text-accent-glow">预期差分析：复产预期与新增产能的“伪命题”</h3>
<ul class="space-y-3 list-disc list-inside text-gray-300">
<li><strong class="text-white">一帆生物复产的预期差：</strong> 市场最大的预期差在于对一帆复产时间的判断。其官方“6月复产”函件与市场调研的“年内无望”结论形成鲜明对比。这表明市场已不信任官方口径，并已将“长期停产”作为定价基础。</li>
<li><strong class="text-white">新增产能的“远水难救近火”：</strong> 市场关注的扬农化工5000吨新增产能，多源信息揭示其“刚开，没有很顺”、“处于爬坡阶段”、“每月出货200吨或是乐观估计”。名义产能不等于有效供给，市场可能高估了其短期缓解作用。</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Catalysts & Future Path -->
<section class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-accent-glow">近期催化剂 (3-6个月)</h2>
<ul class="space-y-3 text-gray-300">
<li><strong>1. 一帆复产官方确认：</strong> 任何关于其安全审查、改造进度的公告都将引爆市场。</li>
<li><strong>2. 南美采购季订单：</strong> 7-8月大单采购将考验供给，成交价将成为新价格锚。</li>
<li><strong>3. 其他厂商生产状况：</strong> 夏季高温期（7-8月）是事故高发期，任何非计划停产都将加剧短缺。</li>
<li><strong>4. 替代品价格走势：</strong> 精喹禾灵等价格变动是判断价格天花板的辅助指标。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-accent-glow">长期发展路径</h2>
<ul class="space-y-3 text-gray-300">
<li><strong>情景一 (快速回归)：</strong> 一帆生物在半年至一年内成功复产，供给恢复，价格将从高位快速回落至成本线附近（约6-7万元/吨）。</li>
<li><strong>情景二 (缓慢重构)：</strong> 一帆生物永久性退出或产能大减，行业格局重塑，为先达、扬农等提供历史性机遇，价格将在较长时间维持高位。</li>
</ul>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Industry Chain & Core Companies -->
<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-6 text-center text-transparent bg-clip-text bg-gradient-to-br from-white to-purple-300">产业链与核心公司剖析</h2>
<!-- Industry Chain Visual -->
<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row justify-around items-center space-y-4 md:space-y-0 md:space-x-4 text-center my-8">
<div class="flex-1">
<div class="p-4 border border-dashed border-cyan-700 rounded-2xl">
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg">上游</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">化工原材料 (乙硫醇等)</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="text-cyan-400 text-2xl font-mono">▶</div>
<div class="flex-1">
<div class="p-4 border-2 border-solid border-cyan-400 rounded-2xl shadow-[0_0_20px_rgba(103,232,249,0.5)]">
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-white">中游 (利润核心)</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">原药生产 (高度集中)</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="text-cyan-400 text-2xl font-mono">▶</div>
<div class="flex-1">
<div class="p-4 border border-dashed border-cyan-700 rounded-2xl">
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg">下游</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">制剂、渠道、终端农户</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<hr class="glow-divider my-6">
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6 mt-8">
<div class="border border-purple-500/30 rounded-2xl p-6 space-y-2 bg-purple-900/10">
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-purple-300">先达股份 (603086)</h3>
<p class="font-semibold text-white">绝对龙头与最大受益者</p>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">拥有与一帆相当的1.1-1.2万吨有效产能，是市场上最大的供给方，受益逻辑最直接。研报测算价格每涨1万元/吨，增厚净利8000-9000万元。</p>
</div>
<div class="border border-purple-500/30 rounded-2xl p-6 space-y-2 bg-purple-900/10">
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-purple-300">扬农化工 (600486)</h3>
<p class="font-semibold text-white">最大的供给变量</p>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">拥有5000吨新建产能，是唯一可见的增量。但其产能爬坡速度是影响行情持续性的关键变量，也是证伪价格持续上涨逻辑的核心观察点。</p>
</div>
<div class="border border-purple-500/30 rounded-2xl p-6 space-y-2 bg-purple-900/10">
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-purple-300">润丰股份 (301035)</h3>
<p class="font-semibold text-white">具备潜力的追赶者</p>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">现有产能2000-3000吨，并有8000吨新生产线扩产计划，具备长期产能扩张的想象空间。</p>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Conclusion and Stock Table -->
<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-6 text-center text-transparent bg-clip-text bg-gradient-to-br from-white to-purple-300">综合结论与相关标的</h2>
<p class="max-w-3xl mx-auto text-center text-gray-300 mb-8">
该概念已完全进入由供给中断驱动的<strong class="text-white">基本面兑现阶段</strong>，行情的核心是“时间差”的生意。当前价格已反映强烈的供给短缺预期。最具投资价值的方向是中游原药生产环节，其中逻辑最顺、确定性最高、受益弹性最大的标的是拥有最大在产有效产能的龙头企业。
</p>
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
<table class="table w-full">
<thead>
<tr class="border-b border-gray-700">
<th class="bg-transparent text-white">股票名称</th>
<th class="bg-transparent text-white">代码</th>
<th class="bg-transparent text-white">核心关联原因</th>
<th class="bg-transparent text-white">分类</th>
<th class="bg-transparent text-white">来源</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="border-b border-gray-800 hover:bg-white/5">
<td class="font-bold text-white">先达股份</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603086" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">603086</a></td>
<td>现有产能1.2万吨/年（月产能1000吨左右）</td>
<td><span class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">生产</span></td>
<td>互动</td>
</tr>
<tr class="border-b border-gray-800 hover:bg-white/5">
<td class="font-bold text-white">润丰股份</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301035" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">301035</a></td>
<td>现有产能2000吨/年</td>
<td><span class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">生产</span></td>
<td>互动</td>
</tr>
<tr class="border-b border-gray-800 hover:bg-white/5">
<td class="font-bold text-white">扬农化工</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600486" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">600486</a></td>
<td>烯草酮项目正在按计划推进，目前已进入试生产状态</td>
<td><span class="badge badge-info badge-outline">试生产</span></td>
<td>互动</td>
</tr>
<tr class="border-b border-gray-800 hover:bg-white/5">
<td class="font-bold text-white">长青股份</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002391" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">002391</a></td>
<td>原有产能500吨/年（腾退搬迁中）</td>
<td><span class="badge badge-warning badge-outline">搬迁</span></td>
<td>调研</td>
</tr>
<tr class="border-b border-gray-800 hover:bg-white/5">
<td class="font-bold text-white">安道麦A</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000553" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">000553</a></td>
<td>除草剂产品中包括烯草酮成分</td>
<td><span class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline">相关成分</span></td>
<td>公告</td>
</tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-white/5">
<td class="font-bold text-white">颖泰生物</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=920819" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">920819</a></td>
<td>公司目前烯草酮原药产线产能尚未释放</td>
<td><span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">北交所</span></td>
<td>调研</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Rise Analysis Supplement -->
<section x-data="{ open: false }">
<div class="text-center">
<button @click="open = !open" class="btn btn-outline btn-primary my-4">
<span x-show="!open">展开相关个股涨幅异动分析</span>
<span x-show="open">收起相关个股涨幅异动分析</span>
</button>
</div>
<div x-show="open" x-transition class="space-y-6">
<!-- Placeholder for rise analysis data, you can loop through your data here -->
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
<div class="flex justify-between items-center mb-2">
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-white">江山股份 (600389)</h3>
<div class="text-right">
<p class="text-lg font-bold text-success">+6.34%</p>
<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">2025-10-10</p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300"><strong class="text-cyan-300">核心结论:</strong> 本次上涨是多重积极催化因素共振的结果。核心驱动力来自西部证券发布的深度研究报告，系统性地阐述了公司三大亮点：主营产品草甘膦景气度提升、中期分红超预期增长、以及创制农药JS-T205进入试生产阶段带来的未来增长想象空间。</p>
</div>
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
<div class="flex justify-between items-center mb-2">
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-white">蓝丰生化 (002513)</h3>
<div class="text-right">
<p class="text-lg font-bold text-success">+9.94%</p>
<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">2025-09-22</p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300"><strong class="text-cyan-300">核心结论:</strong> 农业农村部发布“敌草快二溴盐2026年起国内禁用”征求意见稿，蓝丰生化作为37.5%产能龙头直接受益出口涨价+转基因玉米6000万亩推广带来草铵膦增量，机构周一开盘抢筹14亿元封死涨停。</p>
</div>
<!-- Add more cards as needed -->
</div>
</section>
</main>
<footer class="text-center mt-16">
<p class="text-xs text-gray-500">
免责声明：本报告由AI模型基于公开信息合成，不构成任何投资建议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。
</p>
</footer>
</div>
<script>
document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function () {
var chartDom = document.getElementById('priceChart');
var myChart = echarts.init(chartDom, 'dark');
var option;
option = {
backgroundColor: 'transparent',
tooltip: {
trigger: 'axis',
formatter: function (params) {
let date = params[0].axisValue;
let price = params[0].value;
let event = params[0].data.event || '';
let res = `日期: ${date}<br/>价格: ${price} 万元/吨`;
if (event) {
res += `<br/><span style="color:#ff4d4f;">事件: ${event}</span>`;
}
return res;
},
backgroundColor: 'rgba(20, 20, 50, 0.8)',
borderColor: '#67e8f9',
textStyle: {
color: '#e5e7eb'
}
},
grid: {
left: '3%',
right: '4%',
bottom: '3%',
containLabel: true
},
xAxis: {
type: 'category',
boundaryGap: false,
data: ['2025-02-14', '2025-02-18', '2025-04-24', '2025-05-06', '2025-05-29', '2025-06-16', '2025-06-26'],
axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: 'rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.3)' } },
},
yAxis: {
type: 'value',
name: '万元/吨',
min: 6,
axisLabel: {
formatter: '{value}'
},
axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: 'rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.3)' } },
splitLine: { lineStyle: { color: 'rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1)' } }
},
visualMap: {
top: 50,
right: 10,
pieces: [{
gt: 0,
lte: 8,
color: '#93c5fd'
}, {
gt: 8,
lte: 12,
color: '#67e8f9'
}, {
gt: 12,
lte: 15,
color: '#f472b6'
}, {
gt: 15,
color: '#f87171'
}],
outOfRange: {
color: '#c084fc'
},
textStyle: { color: '#e5e7eb' }
},
series: [{
name: '烯草酮价格',
type: 'line',
smooth: true,
data: [
{ value: 7.3, event: '价格处于历史低位' },
{ value: 7.5, event: '龙头停产消息发酵' },
{ value: 10.0, event: '一帆复产后再次事故，价格突破10万' },
{ value: 12.0, event: '价格跳涨至12万' },
{ value: 14.0, event: '百川报价14万' },
{ value: 16.0, event: '部分订单价触及16万' },
{ value: 14.75, event: '价格高位震荡' }
],
lineStyle: { width: 3 },
symbol: 'circle',
symbolSize: 8,
markPoint: {
data: [
{ name: '关键事件', coord: ['2025-04-24', 10.0], symbol: 'pin', symbolSize: 50, label: { formatter: '事故' } },
]
},
markLine: {
silent: true,
lineStyle: {
color: 'rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.3)'
},
data: [
{yAxis: 10, name: '心理关口'},
{yAxis: 15, name: '高位预期'}
]
}
}]
};
option && myChart.setOption(option);
window.addEventListener('resize', myChart.resize);
});
</script>
</body>
</html>