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update pay function

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zzlgreat
2025-11-21 14:34:15 +08:00
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commit 564caa08c2
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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="zh-CN">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<title>寒潮投资概念深度解析 - 季节性事件驱动的短期机遇</title>
<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.4.0/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/font-awesome/6.4.0/css/all.min.css">
<style>
@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:wght@300;400;500;600;700;800&display=swap');
body {
font-family: 'Inter', sans-serif;
background: linear-gradient(135deg, #667eea 0%, #764ba2 100%);
min-height: 100vh;
}
.glass-morphism {
background: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.95);
backdrop-filter: blur(10px);
border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.18);
}
.hero-gradient {
background: linear-gradient(135deg, #667eea 0%, #764ba2 100%);
}
.card-hover {
transition: all 0.3s ease;
}
.card-hover:hover {
transform: translateY(-5px);
box-shadow: 0 20px 40px rgba(0,0,0,0.1);
}
.pulse-animation {
animation: pulse 2s infinite;
}
@keyframes pulse {
0% { transform: scale(1); }
50% { transform: scale(1.05); }
100% { transform: scale(1); }
}
.timeline-item::before {
content: '';
position: absolute;
left: -8px;
top: 50%;
transform: translateY(-50%);
width: 16px;
height: 16px;
border-radius: 50%;
background: #667eea;
box-shadow: 0 0 0 4px rgba(102, 126, 234, 0.2);
}
.timeline-line {
position: absolute;
left: 0;
top: 0;
bottom: 0;
width: 2px;
background: linear-gradient(180deg, #667eea, #764ba2);
}
.stock-table {
display: block;
overflow-x: auto;
white-space: nowrap;
}
@media (max-width: 768px) {
.stock-table {
font-size: 0.75rem;
}
}
.floating-icon {
animation: float 3s ease-in-out infinite;
}
@keyframes float {
0%, 100% { transform: translateY(0); }
50% { transform: translateY(-10px); }
}
.gradient-text {
background: linear-gradient(135deg, #667eea, #764ba2);
-webkit-background-clip: text;
-webkit-text-fill-color: transparent;
background-clip: text;
}
</style>
</head>
<body class="bg-gray-50">
<!-- Hero Section -->
<div class="hero-gradient text-white py-20">
<div class="container mx-auto px-4">
<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row items-center justify-between">
<div class="md:w-2/3 mb-10 md:mb-0">
<div class="flex items-center mb-4">
<i class="fas fa-snowflake text-4xl mr-4 floating-icon"></i>
<h1 class="text-5xl font-bold">寒潮投资概念</h1>
</div>
<p class="text-xl mb-6">季节性事件驱动的短期机遇分析</p>
<div class="grid grid-cols-2 md:grid-cols-4 gap-4">
<div class="bg-white/20 backdrop-blur rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="text-3xl font-bold">15-30</div>
<div class="text-sm">有效窗口期（天）</div>
</div>
<div class="bg-white/20 backdrop-blur rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="text-3xl font-bold">3次</div>
<div class="text-sm">2024-25预警峰值</div>
</div>
<div class="bg-white/20 backdrop-blur rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="text-3xl font-bold">10%</div>
<div class="text-sm">波司登单日涨幅</div>
</div>
<div class="bg-white/20 backdrop-blur rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="text-3xl font-bold">60万吨</div>
<div class="text-sm">东三省日耗峰值</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="md:w-1/3">
<div class="bg-white/10 backdrop-blur rounded-2xl p-6">
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4">当前阶段判断</h3>
<div class="space-y-3">
<div class="flex items-center">
<i class="fas fa-fire text-yellow-400 mr-3"></i>
<span>季节性事件驱动高峰期</span>
</div>
<div class="flex items-center">
<i class="fas fa-chart-line text-green-400 mr-3"></i>
<span>短期主题投资机会</span>
</div>
<div class="flex items-center">
<i class="fas fa-exclamation-triangle text-orange-400 mr-3"></i>
<span>非长期产业趋势</span>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Main Content -->
<div class="container mx-auto px-4 py-10">
<!-- 时间轴 -->
<div class="glass-morphism rounded-2xl p-8 mb-8">
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold gradient-text mb-6">概念事件时间轴</h2>
<div class="relative">
<div class="timeline-line"></div>
<div class="space-y-6">
<div class="timeline-item relative pl-8">
<div class="bg-blue-50 rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="font-semibold text-blue-600">2024年11月下旬</div>
<div>首轮预警启动，寒潮蓝色预警，0℃线南压至苏皖北部</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item relative pl-8">
<div class="bg-orange-50 rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="font-semibold text-orange-600">2025年1月23日</div>
<div>中国气象局启动寒潮暴雪Ⅲ级应急响应，局地降温超20℃</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item relative pl-8">
<div class="bg-purple-50 rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="font-semibold text-purple-600">2025年1-2月</div>
<div>欧美同步寒潮，德国天然气消费激增，TTF价格突破50美元</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item relative pl-8">
<div class="bg-green-50 rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="font-semibold text-green-600">2025年3月</div>
<div>寒潮延续至春季，北京发布蓝色预警，0℃线南压至秦岭</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 核心逻辑 -->
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-6 mb-8">
<div class="glass-morphism rounded-xl p-6 card-hover">
<div class="text-blue-500 text-4xl mb-4">
<i class="fas fa-cloud-showers-heavy"></i>
</div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-3">气象灾害冲击</h3>
<p class="text-gray-600">全国大部降温6-10℃，局地超20℃，官方定调"极端天气事件"</p>
<div class="mt-4 pt-4 border-t">
<span class="text-sm text-gray-500">东三省日耗从35万→60万吨/天</span>
</div>
</div>
<div class="glass-morphism rounded-xl p-6 card-hover">
<div class="text-purple-500 text-4xl mb-4">
<i class="fas fa-link"></i>
</div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-3">供应链脆弱性</h3>
<p class="text-gray-600">上游原料紧张、中游订单爆单、下游需求即时</p>
<div class="mt-4 pt-4 border-t">
<span class="text-sm text-gray-500">古麒绒材羽绒收入占比99.27%</span>
</div>
</div>
<div class="glass-morphism rounded-xl p-6 card-hover">
<div class="text-green-500 text-4xl mb-4">
<i class="fas fa-bolt"></i>
</div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-3">能源刚性需求</h3>
<p class="text-gray-600">空调制热+煤炭/天然气供暖叠加，需求非线性增长</p>
<div class="mt-4 pt-4 border-t">
<span class="text-sm text-gray-500">提前10天供暖多耗5000万吨煤</span>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 产业链分析 -->
<div class="glass-morphism rounded-2xl p-8 mb-8">
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold gradient-text mb-6">产业链四象限模型</h2>
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
<div class="bg-gradient-to-br from-blue-50 to-indigo-50 rounded-xl p-6">
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-blue-700 mb-4">能源链（需求强度：★★★★★）</h3>
<div class="space-y-2">
<div class="flex justify-between">
<span>上游资源：</span>
<span class="font-semibold">中国神华、陕西煤业</span>
</div>
<div class="flex justify-between">
<span>中游制造：</span>
<span class="font-semibold">古麒绒材</span>
</div>
<div class="flex justify-between">
<span>下游消费：</span>
<span class="font-semibold">波司登</span>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="bg-gradient-to-br from-green-50 to-emerald-50 rounded-xl p-6">
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-green-700 mb-4">设备链（需求强度：★★★★）</h3>
<div class="space-y-2">
<div class="flex justify-between">
<span>核心原料：</span>
<span class="font-semibold">棉花/鸭绒</span>
</div>
<div class="flex justify-between">
<span>热泵设备：</span>
<span class="font-semibold">日出东方、双良节能</span>
</div>
<div class="flex justify-between">
<span>终端零售：</span>
<span class="font-semibold">彩虹集团</span>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="bg-gradient-to-br from-purple-50 to-pink-50 rounded-xl p-6">
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-purple-700 mb-4">服务链（需求强度：★★★）</h3>
<div class="space-y-2">
<div class="flex justify-between">
<span>电力供应：</span>
<span class="font-semibold">华能、华电</span>
</div>
<div class="flex justify-between">
<span>智能温控：</span>
<span class="font-semibold">瑞纳智能</span>
</div>
<div class="flex justify-between">
<span>热力服务：</span>
<span class="font-semibold">联美控股</span>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="bg-gradient-to-br from-orange-50 to-yellow-50 rounded-xl p-6">
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-orange-700 mb-4">消费品链（需求强度：★★）</h3>
<div class="space-y-2">
<div class="flex justify-between">
<span>品牌服装：</span>
<span class="font-semibold">波司登、太平鸟</span>
</div>
<div class="flex justify-between">
<span>家居保暖：</span>
<span class="font-semibold">真爱美家</span>
</div>
<div class="flex justify-between">
<span>小家电：</span>
<span class="font-semibold">彩虹集团</span>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 股票数据表格 -->
<div class="glass-morphism rounded-2xl p-8 mb-8">
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold gradient-text mb-6">相关上市公司一览</h2>
<!-- 供热/暖板块 -->
<div class="mb-8">
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-blue-600">
<i class="fas fa-fire mr-2"></i>供热/暖板块
</h3>
<div class="stock-table">
<table class="table table-zebra table-compact w-full">
<thead>
<tr class="bg-blue-100">
<th>股票代码</th>
<th>公司名称</th>
<th>相关性描述</th>
<th>核心逻辑</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>联美控股</td>
<td>2025H1供暖及蒸汽收入14.16亿元，占比74.62%</td>
<td>供暖收入占比高，直接受益寒潮</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>惠天热电</td>
<td>沈阳市大型专业供热上市公司，2025H1供暖供热气11.66亿元，占比96.35%</td>
<td>专业供热且收入占比极高</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>京能热力</td>
<td>实控人北京市国资委（持股28.46%）；2025H1热力服务收入6.55亿元，占比84.67%</td>
<td>国资控股保障，区域垄断性强</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>金房能源</td>
<td>2025H1供热行业6.55亿元，占比97.59%；北京地区占比62.11%</td>
<td>供热收入占比极高，区域集中</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>瑞纳智能</td>
<td>2025H1供热节能服务0.74亿元，占比79.59%</td>
<td>智慧供暖，技术壁垒高</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 热泵板块 -->
<div class="mb-8">
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-green-600">
<i class="fas fa-temperature-high mr-2"></i>热泵板块
</h3>
<div class="stock-table">
<table class="table table-zebra table-compact w-full">
<thead>
<tr class="bg-green-100">
<th>股票代码</th>
<th>公司名称</th>
<th>相关性描述</th>
<th>核心逻辑</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>日出东方</td>
<td>推进以空气能热泵为龙头业务的战略布局；空气能热泵产能10万套左右</td>
<td>热泵为核心业务，西藏项目17.67亿</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>万和电气</td>
<td>2024年推出的R290热泵产品成为行业内的佼佼者</td>
<td>R290热泵技术领先</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>双良节能</td>
<td>中国最大的溴化锂制冷机、吸收式热泵和空冷器生产商和集成商</td>
<td>溴化锂热泵领域龙头</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>振邦智能</td>
<td>空气能热泵是公司主要产品智能电器控制器的主要应用之一</td>
<td>热泵控制器核心供应商</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 御寒产品板块 -->
<div class="mb-8">
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-purple-600">
<i class="fas fa-tshirt mr-2"></i>御寒产品板块
</h3>
<div class="stock-table">
<table class="table table-zebra table-compact w-full">
<thead>
<tr class="bg-purple-100">
<th>股票代码</th>
<th>公司名称</th>
<th>相关性描述</th>
<th>核心逻辑</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>古麒绒材</td>
<td>主要产品为高规格羽绒材料，2025H1羽绒行业5.33亿元，占比99.27%</td>
<td>最纯粹的羽绒原料标的</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>华英农业</td>
<td>2025H1羽绒13.55亿元，占比65.43%</td>
<td>羽绒收入占比较高</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>真爱美家</td>
<td>2025H1毛毯3.45亿元，占比88%，保暖性和舒适度高</td>
<td>毛毯收入占比极高</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>-</td>
<td>彩虹集团</td>
<td>电热毯行业龙头；2025H1家用柔性取暖系列3.56亿元，占比65.73%</td>
<td>电热毯龙头，需求反馈最快</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 能源板块 -->
<div class="mb-8">
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-orange-600">
<i class="fas fa-oil-can mr-2"></i>能源板块
</h3>
<div class="stock-table">
<table class="table table-zebra table-compact w-full">
<thead>
<tr class="bg-orange-100">
<th>股票代码</th>
<th>公司名称</th>
<th>相关性描述</th>
<th>核心逻辑</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>601088</td>
<td>中国神华</td>
<td>煤炭产业链龙头，股息率4.8%</td>
<td>长协煤保供能力强，现金流稳定</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>601225</td>
<td>陕西煤业</td>
<td>煤炭产业链，股息率4.5%</td>
<td>资源禀赋优秀，成本优势明显</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>600188</td>
<td>兖矿能源</td>
<td>煤炭产业链，澳洲产能占比高</td>
<td>受益国际煤价上涨，弹性大</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>601018</td>
<td>中煤能源</td>
<td>煤炭产业链，央企背景</td>
<td>产能规模大，保供主力</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>600997</td>
<td>开滦股份</td>
<td>焦炭产业链，煤焦一体化</td>
<td>焦煤涨价受益，弹性较好</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 投资策略 -->
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 mb-8">
<div class="glass-morphism rounded-xl p-6">
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-green-600">
<i class="fas fa-chess-rook mr-2"></i>操作策略
</h3>
<div class="space-y-4">
<div class="bg-green-50 rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="font-semibold mb-2">三日法则</div>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">每3日评估一次，若数据未达预期立即减半</p>
</div>
<div class="bg-yellow-50 rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="font-semibold mb-2">止损纪律</div>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">买入3日内若下跌超5%，立即止损</p>
</div>
<div class="bg-blue-50 rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="font-semibold mb-2">仓位控制</div>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">主题配置不超过10%，卫星策略定位</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="glass-morphism rounded-xl p-6">
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-red-600">
<i class="fas fa-exclamation-triangle mr-2"></i>关键风险
</h3>
<div class="space-y-4">
<div class="bg-red-50 rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="font-semibold mb-2">可持续性风险</div>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">天气红利难持续，寒潮结束需求断崖</p>
</div>
<div class="bg-orange-50 rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="font-semibold mb-2">技术风险</div>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">热泵低温性能衰减，-10℃以下COP降至2.5</p>
</div>
<div class="bg-purple-50 rounded-lg p-4">
<div class="font-semibold mb-2">政策风险</div>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">保供压制煤价，长协上限770元/吨</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 关键跟踪指标 -->
<div class="glass-morphism rounded-2xl p-8">
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold gradient-text mb-6">关键跟踪指标</h2>
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
<div class="bg-gradient-to-r from-red-500 to-orange-500 text-white rounded-xl p-6">
<div class="text-2xl font-bold mb-2">一级指标（每日）</div>
<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm">
<li>• 中央气象台预警等级</li>
<li>• 东三省电厂日耗（>60万吨）</li>
<li>• 生猪日屠宰量（>17万头）</li>
</ul>
</div>
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<div class="text-2xl font-bold mb-2">二级指标（每周）</div>
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<li>• 秦皇岛港库存（<500万吨）</li>
<li>• 羽绒原料价格指数（周涨>5%）</li>
<li>• 小家电换手率（>5%）</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="bg-gradient-to-r from-green-500 to-teal-500 text-white rounded-xl p-6">
<div class="text-2xl font-bold mb-2">三级指标（每月）</div>
<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm">
<li>• 天猫京东羽绒服销量</li>
<li>• 企业月度经营数据</li>
<li>• 能源库存变动</li>
</ul>
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<p class="mb-2">寒潮投资概念解析 - 数据更新至2025年</p>
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