diff --git a/src/routes/lazy-components.js b/src/routes/lazy-components.js
index 48353be6..8e124a1a 100644
--- a/src/routes/lazy-components.js
+++ b/src/routes/lazy-components.js
@@ -42,6 +42,7 @@ export const lazyComponents = {
     // 价值论坛模块
     ValueForum: React.lazy(() => import('../views/ValueForum')),
     ForumPostDetail: React.lazy(() => import('../views/ValueForum/PostDetail')),
+    PredictionTopicDetail: React.lazy(() => import('../views/ValueForum/PredictionTopicDetail')),
 
     // 数据浏览器模块
     DataBrowser: React.lazy(() => import('../views/DataBrowser')),
diff --git a/src/routes/routeConfig.js b/src/routes/routeConfig.js
index 4f3911f1..3c0fe14a 100644
--- a/src/routes/routeConfig.js
+++ b/src/routes/routeConfig.js
@@ -181,6 +181,16 @@ export const routeConfig = [
             description: '论坛帖子详细内容'
         }
     },
+    {
+        path: 'value-forum/prediction/:topicId',
+        component: lazyComponents.PredictionTopicDetail,
+        protection: PROTECTION_MODES.MODAL,
+        layout: 'main',
+        meta: {
+            title: '预测话题详情',
+            description: '预测市场话题详细信息'
+        }
+    },
 
     // ==================== Agent模块 ====================
     {
diff --git a/src/services/creditSystemService.js b/src/services/creditSystemService.js
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..e97fb6a2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/services/creditSystemService.js
@@ -0,0 +1,492 @@
+/**
+ * 积分系统服务
+ * 管理用户积分账户、交易、奖励等
+ */
+
+// ==================== 常量配置 ====================
+
+export const CREDIT_CONFIG = {
+  INITIAL_BALANCE: 10000,        // 初始积分
+  MIN_BALANCE: 100,              // 最低保留余额（破产保护）
+  MAX_SINGLE_BET: 1000,          // 单次下注上限
+  DAILY_BONUS: 100,              // 每日签到奖励
+  CREATE_TOPIC_COST: 100,        // 创建话题费用
+};
+
+// 积分账户存储（生产环境应使用数据库）
+const userAccounts = new Map();
+
+// 交易记录存储
+const transactions = [];
+
+// ==================== 账户管理 ====================
+
+/**
+ * 获取用户账户
+ * @param {string} userId - 用户ID
+ * @returns {Object} 用户账户信息
+ */
+export const getUserAccount = (userId) => {
+  if (!userAccounts.has(userId)) {
+    // 首次访问，创建新账户
+    const newAccount = {
+      user_id: userId,
+      balance: CREDIT_CONFIG.INITIAL_BALANCE,
+      frozen: 0,
+      total: CREDIT_CONFIG.INITIAL_BALANCE,
+      total_earned: CREDIT_CONFIG.INITIAL_BALANCE,
+      total_spent: 0,
+      total_profit: 0,
+      active_positions: [],
+      stats: {
+        total_topics: 0,
+        win_count: 0,
+        loss_count: 0,
+        win_rate: 0,
+        best_profit: 0,
+      },
+      last_daily_bonus: null,
+    };
+    userAccounts.set(userId, newAccount);
+  }
+
+  return userAccounts.get(userId);
+};
+
+/**
+ * 更新用户账户
+ * @param {string} userId - 用户ID
+ * @param {Object} updates - 更新内容
+ */
+export const updateUserAccount = (userId, updates) => {
+  const account = getUserAccount(userId);
+  const updated = { ...account, ...updates };
+  userAccounts.set(userId, updated);
+  return updated;
+};
+
+/**
+ * 获取用户积分余额
+ * @param {string} userId - 用户ID
+ * @returns {number} 可用余额
+ */
+export const getBalance = (userId) => {
+  const account = getUserAccount(userId);
+  return account.balance;
+};
+
+/**
+ * 检查用户是否能支付
+ * @param {string} userId - 用户ID
+ * @param {number} amount - 金额
+ * @returns {boolean} 是否能支付
+ */
+export const canAfford = (userId, amount) => {
+  const account = getUserAccount(userId);
+  const afterBalance = account.balance - amount;
+
+  // 必须保留最低余额
+  return afterBalance >= CREDIT_CONFIG.MIN_BALANCE;
+};
+
+// ==================== 积分操作 ====================
+
+/**
+ * 增加积分
+ * @param {string} userId - 用户ID
+ * @param {number} amount - 金额
+ * @param {string} reason - 原因
+ */
+export const addCredits = (userId, amount, reason = '系统增加') => {
+  const account = getUserAccount(userId);
+
+  const updated = {
+    balance: account.balance + amount,
+    total: account.total + amount,
+    total_earned: account.total_earned + amount,
+  };
+
+  updateUserAccount(userId, updated);
+
+  // 记录交易
+  logTransaction({
+    user_id: userId,
+    type: 'earn',
+    amount,
+    reason,
+    balance_after: updated.balance,
+  });
+
+  return updated;
+};
+
+/**
+ * 扣除积分
+ * @param {string} userId - 用户ID
+ * @param {number} amount - 金额
+ * @param {string} reason - 原因
+ * @throws {Error} 如果余额不足
+ */
+export const deductCredits = (userId, amount, reason = '系统扣除') => {
+  if (!canAfford(userId, amount)) {
+    throw new Error(`积分不足，需要${amount}积分，但只有${getBalance(userId)}积分`);
+  }
+
+  const account = getUserAccount(userId);
+
+  const updated = {
+    balance: account.balance - amount,
+    total_spent: account.total_spent + amount,
+  };
+
+  updateUserAccount(userId, updated);
+
+  // 记录交易
+  logTransaction({
+    user_id: userId,
+    type: 'spend',
+    amount: -amount,
+    reason,
+    balance_after: updated.balance,
+  });
+
+  return updated;
+};
+
+/**
+ * 冻结积分（席位占用）
+ * @param {string} userId - 用户ID
+ * @param {number} amount - 金额
+ */
+export const freezeCredits = (userId, amount) => {
+  const account = getUserAccount(userId);
+
+  if (account.balance < amount) {
+    throw new Error('可用余额不足');
+  }
+
+  const updated = {
+    balance: account.balance - amount,
+    frozen: account.frozen + amount,
+  };
+
+  updateUserAccount(userId, updated);
+  return updated;
+};
+
+/**
+ * 解冻积分
+ * @param {string} userId - 用户ID
+ * @param {number} amount - 金额
+ */
+export const unfreezeCredits = (userId, amount) => {
+  const account = getUserAccount(userId);
+
+  const updated = {
+    balance: account.balance + amount,
+    frozen: account.frozen - amount,
+  };
+
+  updateUserAccount(userId, updated);
+  return updated;
+};
+
+// ==================== 每日奖励 ====================
+
+/**
+ * 领取每日签到奖励
+ * @param {string} userId - 用户ID
+ * @returns {Object} 奖励信息
+ */
+export const claimDailyBonus = (userId) => {
+  const account = getUserAccount(userId);
+  const today = new Date().toDateString();
+
+  // 检查是否已领取
+  if (account.last_daily_bonus === today) {
+    return {
+      success: false,
+      message: '今日已领取',
+    };
+  }
+
+  // 发放奖励
+  addCredits(userId, CREDIT_CONFIG.DAILY_BONUS, '每日签到');
+
+  // 更新领取时间
+  updateUserAccount(userId, { last_daily_bonus: today });
+
+  return {
+    success: true,
+    amount: CREDIT_CONFIG.DAILY_BONUS,
+    message: `获得${CREDIT_CONFIG.DAILY_BONUS}积分`,
+  };
+};
+
+/**
+ * 检查今天是否已签到
+ * @param {string} userId - 用户ID
+ * @returns {boolean}
+ */
+export const hasClaimedToday = (userId) => {
+  const account = getUserAccount(userId);
+  const today = new Date().toDateString();
+  return account.last_daily_bonus === today;
+};
+
+// ==================== 持仓管理 ====================
+
+/**
+ * 添加持仓
+ * @param {string} userId - 用户ID
+ * @param {Object} position - 持仓信息
+ */
+export const addPosition = (userId, position) => {
+  const account = getUserAccount(userId);
+
+  const updated = {
+    active_positions: [...account.active_positions, position],
+    stats: {
+      ...account.stats,
+      total_topics: account.stats.total_topics + 1,
+    },
+  };
+
+  updateUserAccount(userId, updated);
+  return updated;
+};
+
+/**
+ * 移除持仓
+ * @param {string} userId - 用户ID
+ * @param {string} positionId - 持仓ID
+ */
+export const removePosition = (userId, positionId) => {
+  const account = getUserAccount(userId);
+
+  const updated = {
+    active_positions: account.active_positions.filter((p) => p.id !== positionId),
+  };
+
+  updateUserAccount(userId, updated);
+  return updated;
+};
+
+/**
+ * 更新持仓
+ * @param {string} userId - 用户ID
+ * @param {string} positionId - 持仓ID
+ * @param {Object} updates - 更新内容
+ */
+export const updatePosition = (userId, positionId, updates) => {
+  const account = getUserAccount(userId);
+
+  const updated = {
+    active_positions: account.active_positions.map((p) =>
+      p.id === positionId ? { ...p, ...updates } : p
+    ),
+  };
+
+  updateUserAccount(userId, updated);
+  return updated;
+};
+
+/**
+ * 获取用户持仓
+ * @param {string} userId - 用户ID
+ * @param {string} topicId - 话题ID（可选）
+ * @returns {Array} 持仓列表
+ */
+export const getUserPositions = (userId, topicId = null) => {
+  const account = getUserAccount(userId);
+
+  if (topicId) {
+    return account.active_positions.filter((p) => p.topic_id === topicId);
+  }
+
+  return account.active_positions;
+};
+
+// ==================== 统计更新 ====================
+
+/**
+ * 记录胜利
+ * @param {string} userId - 用户ID
+ * @param {number} profit - 盈利金额
+ */
+export const recordWin = (userId, profit) => {
+  const account = getUserAccount(userId);
+
+  const newWinCount = account.stats.win_count + 1;
+  const totalGames = newWinCount + account.stats.loss_count;
+  const winRate = (newWinCount / totalGames) * 100;
+
+  const updated = {
+    total_profit: account.total_profit + profit,
+    stats: {
+      ...account.stats,
+      win_count: newWinCount,
+      win_rate: winRate,
+      best_profit: Math.max(account.stats.best_profit, profit),
+    },
+  };
+
+  updateUserAccount(userId, updated);
+  return updated;
+};
+
+/**
+ * 记录失败
+ * @param {string} userId - 用户ID
+ * @param {number} loss - 损失金额
+ */
+export const recordLoss = (userId, loss) => {
+  const account = getUserAccount(userId);
+
+  const newLossCount = account.stats.loss_count + 1;
+  const totalGames = account.stats.win_count + newLossCount;
+  const winRate = (account.stats.win_count / totalGames) * 100;
+
+  const updated = {
+    total_profit: account.total_profit - loss,
+    stats: {
+      ...account.stats,
+      loss_count: newLossCount,
+      win_rate: winRate,
+    },
+  };
+
+  updateUserAccount(userId, updated);
+  return updated;
+};
+
+// ==================== 排行榜 ====================
+
+/**
+ * 获取积分排行榜
+ * @param {number} limit - 返回数量
+ * @returns {Array} 排行榜数据
+ */
+export const getLeaderboard = (limit = 100) => {
+  const accounts = Array.from(userAccounts.values());
+
+  return accounts
+    .sort((a, b) => b.total - a.total)
+    .slice(0, limit)
+    .map((account, index) => ({
+      rank: index + 1,
+      user_id: account.user_id,
+      total: account.total,
+      total_profit: account.total_profit,
+      win_rate: account.stats.win_rate,
+    }));
+};
+
+/**
+ * 获取用户排名
+ * @param {string} userId - 用户ID
+ * @returns {number} 排名
+ */
+export const getUserRank = (userId) => {
+  const leaderboard = getLeaderboard(1000);
+  const index = leaderboard.findIndex((item) => item.user_id === userId);
+  return index >= 0 ? index + 1 : -1;
+};
+
+// ==================== 交易记录 ====================
+
+/**
+ * 记录交易
+ * @param {Object} transaction - 交易信息
+ */
+const logTransaction = (transaction) => {
+  const record = {
+    id: `tx_${Date.now()}_${Math.random().toString(36).substr(2, 9)}`,
+    timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
+    ...transaction,
+  };
+
+  transactions.push(record);
+  return record;
+};
+
+/**
+ * 获取用户交易记录
+ * @param {string} userId - 用户ID
+ * @param {number} limit - 返回数量
+ * @returns {Array} 交易记录
+ */
+export const getUserTransactions = (userId, limit = 50) => {
+  return transactions
+    .filter((tx) => tx.user_id === userId)
+    .sort((a, b) => new Date(b.timestamp) - new Date(a.timestamp))
+    .slice(0, limit);
+};
+
+// ==================== 批量操作 ====================
+
+/**
+ * 批量发放积分（如活动奖励）
+ * @param {Array} recipients - [{user_id, amount, reason}]
+ */
+export const batchAddCredits = (recipients) => {
+  const results = recipients.map(({ user_id, amount, reason }) => {
+    try {
+      return {
+        user_id,
+        success: true,
+        account: addCredits(user_id, amount, reason),
+      };
+    } catch (error) {
+      return {
+        user_id,
+        success: false,
+        error: error.message,
+      };
+    }
+  });
+
+  return results;
+};
+
+// ==================== 导出所有功能 ====================
+
+export default {
+  CREDIT_CONFIG,
+
+  // 账户管理
+  getUserAccount,
+  updateUserAccount,
+  getBalance,
+  canAfford,
+
+  // 积分操作
+  addCredits,
+  deductCredits,
+  freezeCredits,
+  unfreezeCredits,
+
+  // 每日奖励
+  claimDailyBonus,
+  hasClaimedToday,
+
+  // 持仓管理
+  addPosition,
+  removePosition,
+  updatePosition,
+  getUserPositions,
+
+  // 统计更新
+  recordWin,
+  recordLoss,
+
+  // 排行榜
+  getLeaderboard,
+  getUserRank,
+
+  // 交易记录
+  getUserTransactions,
+
+  // 批量操作
+  batchAddCredits,
+};
diff --git a/src/services/predictionMarketService.js b/src/services/predictionMarketService.js
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..25e943cd
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/services/predictionMarketService.js
@@ -0,0 +1,738 @@
+/**
+ * 预测市场服务
+ * 核心功能：话题管理、席位交易、动态定价、领主系统、奖池分配
+ */
+
+import {
+  addCredits,
+  deductCredits,
+  canAfford,
+  addPosition,
+  removePosition,
+  updatePosition,
+  getUserPositions,
+  recordWin,
+  recordLoss,
+  CREDIT_CONFIG,
+} from './creditSystemService';
+
+// ==================== 常量配置 ====================
+
+export const MARKET_CONFIG = {
+  MAX_SEATS_PER_SIDE: 5,         // 每个方向最多5个席位
+  TAX_RATE: 0.02,                // 交易税率 2%
+  MIN_PRICE: 50,                 // 最低价格
+  MAX_PRICE: 950,                // 最高价格
+  BASE_PRICE: 500,               // 基础价格
+};
+
+// 话题存储（生产环境应使用Elasticsearch）
+const topics = new Map();
+
+// 席位存储
+const positions = new Map();
+
+// 交易记录
+const trades = [];
+
+// ==================== 动态定价算法 ====================
+
+/**
+ * 计算当前价格（简化版AMM）
+ * @param {number} yesShares - Yes方总份额
+ * @param {number} noShares - No方总份额
+ * @returns {Object} {yes: price, no: price}
+ */
+export const calculatePrice = (yesShares, noShares) => {
+  const totalShares = yesShares + noShares;
+
+  if (totalShares === 0) {
+    // 初始状态，双方价格相同
+    return {
+      yes: MARKET_CONFIG.BASE_PRICE,
+      no: MARKET_CONFIG.BASE_PRICE,
+    };
+  }
+
+  // 概率加权定价
+  const yesProb = yesShares / totalShares;
+  const noProb = noShares / totalShares;
+
+  // 价格 = 概率 * 1000，限制在 [MIN_PRICE, MAX_PRICE]
+  const yesPrice = Math.max(
+    MARKET_CONFIG.MIN_PRICE,
+    Math.min(MARKET_CONFIG.MAX_PRICE, yesProb * 1000)
+  );
+
+  const noPrice = Math.max(
+    MARKET_CONFIG.MIN_PRICE,
+    Math.min(MARKET_CONFIG.MAX_PRICE, noProb * 1000)
+  );
+
+  return { yes: yesPrice, no: noPrice };
+};
+
+/**
+ * 计算购买成本（含滑点）
+ * @param {number} currentShares - 当前份额
+ * @param {number} otherShares - 对手方份额
+ * @param {number} buyAmount - 购买数量
+ * @returns {number} 总成本
+ */
+export const calculateBuyCost = (currentShares, otherShares, buyAmount) => {
+  let totalCost = 0;
+  let tempShares = currentShares;
+
+  // 模拟逐步购买，累计成本
+  for (let i = 0; i < buyAmount; i++) {
+    tempShares += 1;
+    const prices = calculatePrice(tempShares, otherShares);
+    // 假设购买的是yes方
+    totalCost += prices.yes;
+  }
+
+  return totalCost;
+};
+
+/**
+ * 计算卖出收益（含滑点）
+ * @param {number} currentShares - 当前份额
+ * @param {number} otherShares - 对手方份额
+ * @param {number} sellAmount - 卖出数量
+ * @returns {number} 总收益
+ */
+export const calculateSellRevenue = (currentShares, otherShares, sellAmount) => {
+  let totalRevenue = 0;
+  let tempShares = currentShares;
+
+  // 模拟逐步卖出，累计收益
+  for (let i = 0; i < sellAmount; i++) {
+    const prices = calculatePrice(tempShares, otherShares);
+    totalRevenue += prices.yes;
+    tempShares -= 1;
+  }
+
+  return totalRevenue;
+};
+
+/**
+ * 计算交易税
+ * @param {number} amount - 交易金额
+ * @returns {number} 税费
+ */
+export const calculateTax = (amount) => {
+  return Math.floor(amount * MARKET_CONFIG.TAX_RATE);
+};
+
+// ==================== 话题管理 ====================
+
+/**
+ * 创建预测话题
+ * @param {Object} topicData - 话题数据
+ * @returns {Object} 创建的话题
+ */
+export const createTopic = (topicData) => {
+  const { author_id, title, description, category, tags, deadline, settlement_date } = topicData;
+
+  // 扣除创建费用
+  deductCredits(author_id, CREDIT_CONFIG.CREATE_TOPIC_COST, '创建预测话题');
+
+  const topic = {
+    id: `topic_${Date.now()}_${Math.random().toString(36).substr(2, 9)}`,
+    type: 'prediction',
+
+    // 基础信息
+    title,
+    description,
+    category,
+    tags: tags || [],
+
+    // 作者信息
+    author_id,
+    author_name: topicData.author_name,
+    author_avatar: topicData.author_avatar,
+
+    // 时间管理
+    created_at: new Date().toISOString(),
+    deadline: deadline || new Date(Date.now() + 7 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000).toISOString(), // 默认7天
+    settlement_date: settlement_date || new Date(Date.now() + 8 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000).toISOString(),
+    status: 'active',
+
+    // 预测选项
+    options: [
+      { id: 'yes', label: '看涨 / Yes', color: '#48BB78' },
+      { id: 'no', label: '看跌 / No', color: '#F56565' },
+    ],
+
+    // 市场数据
+    total_pool: CREDIT_CONFIG.CREATE_TOPIC_COST, // 创建费用进入奖池
+    tax_rate: MARKET_CONFIG.TAX_RATE,
+
+    // 席位数据
+    positions: {
+      yes: {
+        seats: [],
+        total_shares: 0,
+        current_price: MARKET_CONFIG.BASE_PRICE,
+        lord_id: null,
+      },
+      no: {
+        seats: [],
+        total_shares: 0,
+        current_price: MARKET_CONFIG.BASE_PRICE,
+        lord_id: null,
+      },
+    },
+
+    // 交易统计
+    stats: {
+      total_volume: 0,
+      total_transactions: 0,
+      unique_traders: new Set(),
+    },
+
+    // 结果
+    settlement: {
+      result: null,
+      evidence: null,
+      settled_by: null,
+      settled_at: null,
+    },
+  };
+
+  topics.set(topic.id, topic);
+  return topic;
+};
+
+/**
+ * 获取话题详情
+ * @param {string} topicId - 话题ID
+ * @returns {Object} 话题详情
+ */
+export const getTopic = (topicId) => {
+  return topics.get(topicId);
+};
+
+/**
+ * 更新话题
+ * @param {string} topicId - 话题ID
+ * @param {Object} updates - 更新内容
+ */
+export const updateTopic = (topicId, updates) => {
+  const topic = getTopic(topicId);
+  const updated = { ...topic, ...updates };
+  topics.set(topicId, updated);
+  return updated;
+};
+
+/**
+ * 获取所有话题列表
+ * @param {Object} filters - 筛选条件
+ * @returns {Array} 话题列表
+ */
+export const getTopics = (filters = {}) => {
+  let topicList = Array.from(topics.values());
+
+  // 按状态筛选
+  if (filters.status) {
+    topicList = topicList.filter((t) => t.status === filters.status);
+  }
+
+  // 按分类筛选
+  if (filters.category) {
+    topicList = topicList.filter((t) => t.category === filters.category);
+  }
+
+  // 排序
+  const sortBy = filters.sortBy || 'created_at';
+  topicList.sort((a, b) => {
+    if (sortBy === 'created_at') {
+      return new Date(b.created_at) - new Date(a.created_at);
+    }
+    if (sortBy === 'total_pool') {
+      return b.total_pool - a.total_pool;
+    }
+    if (sortBy === 'total_volume') {
+      return b.stats.total_volume - a.stats.total_volume;
+    }
+    return 0;
+  });
+
+  return topicList;
+};
+
+// ==================== 席位管理 ====================
+
+/**
+ * 创建席位
+ * @param {Object} positionData - 席位数据
+ * @returns {Object} 创建的席位
+ */
+const createPosition = (positionData) => {
+  const position = {
+    id: `pos_${Date.now()}_${Math.random().toString(36).substr(2, 9)}`,
+    ...positionData,
+    acquired_at: new Date().toISOString(),
+    last_traded_at: new Date().toISOString(),
+    is_lord: false,
+  };
+
+  positions.set(position.id, position);
+  return position;
+};
+
+/**
+ * 获取席位
+ * @param {string} positionId - 席位ID
+ * @returns {Object} 席位信息
+ */
+export const getPosition = (positionId) => {
+  return positions.get(positionId);
+};
+
+/**
+ * 分配席位（取份额最高的前5名）
+ * @param {Array} allPositions - 所有持仓
+ * @returns {Array} 席位列表
+ */
+const allocateSeats = (allPositions) => {
+  // 按份额排序
+  const sorted = [...allPositions].sort((a, b) => b.shares - a.shares);
+
+  // 取前5名
+  return sorted.slice(0, MARKET_CONFIG.MAX_SEATS_PER_SIDE);
+};
+
+/**
+ * 确定领主（份额最多的人）
+ * @param {Array} seats - 席位列表
+ * @returns {string|null} 领主用户ID
+ */
+const determineLord = (seats) => {
+  if (seats.length === 0) return null;
+
+  const lord = seats.reduce((max, seat) => (seat.shares > max.shares ? seat : max));
+
+  return lord.holder_id;
+};
+
+/**
+ * 更新领主标识
+ * @param {string} topicId - 话题ID
+ * @param {string} optionId - 选项ID
+ */
+const updateLordStatus = (topicId, optionId) => {
+  const topic = getTopic(topicId);
+  const sideData = topic.positions[optionId];
+
+  // 重新分配席位
+  const allPositions = Array.from(positions.values()).filter(
+    (p) => p.topic_id === topicId && p.option_id === optionId
+  );
+
+  const seats = allocateSeats(allPositions);
+  const lordId = determineLord(seats);
+
+  // 更新所有席位的领主标识
+  allPositions.forEach((position) => {
+    const isLord = position.holder_id === lordId;
+    positions.set(position.id, { ...position, is_lord: isLord });
+  });
+
+  // 更新话题数据
+  updateTopic(topicId, {
+    positions: {
+      ...topic.positions,
+      [optionId]: {
+        ...sideData,
+        seats,
+        lord_id: lordId,
+      },
+    },
+  });
+
+  return lordId;
+};
+
+// ==================== 交易执行 ====================
+
+/**
+ * 购买席位
+ * @param {Object} tradeData - 交易数据
+ * @returns {Object} 交易结果
+ */
+export const buyPosition = (tradeData) => {
+  const { user_id, user_name, user_avatar, topic_id, option_id, shares } = tradeData;
+
+  // 验证
+  const topic = getTopic(topic_id);
+  if (!topic) throw new Error('话题不存在');
+  if (topic.status !== 'active') throw new Error('话题已关闭交易');
+  if (topic.author_id === user_id) throw new Error('不能参与自己发起的话题');
+
+  // 检查购买上限
+  if (shares * MARKET_CONFIG.BASE_PRICE > CREDIT_CONFIG.MAX_SINGLE_BET) {
+    throw new Error(`单次购买上限为${CREDIT_CONFIG.MAX_SINGLE_BET}积分`);
+  }
+
+  // 获取当前市场数据
+  const sideData = topic.positions[option_id];
+  const otherOptionId = option_id === 'yes' ? 'no' : 'yes';
+  const otherSideData = topic.positions[otherOptionId];
+
+  // 计算成本
+  const cost = calculateBuyCost(sideData.total_shares, otherSideData.total_shares, shares);
+  const tax = calculateTax(cost);
+  const totalCost = cost + tax;
+
+  // 检查余额
+  if (!canAfford(user_id, totalCost)) {
+    throw new Error(`积分不足，需要${totalCost}积分`);
+  }
+
+  // 扣除积分
+  deductCredits(user_id, totalCost, `购买预测席位 - ${topic.title}`);
+
+  // 税费进入奖池
+  updateTopic(topic_id, {
+    total_pool: topic.total_pool + tax,
+    stats: {
+      ...topic.stats,
+      total_volume: topic.stats.total_volume + totalCost,
+      total_transactions: topic.stats.total_transactions + 1,
+      unique_traders: topic.stats.unique_traders.add(user_id),
+    },
+  });
+
+  // 查找用户是否已有该选项的席位
+  let userPosition = Array.from(positions.values()).find(
+    (p) => p.topic_id === topic_id && p.option_id === option_id && p.holder_id === user_id
+  );
+
+  if (userPosition) {
+    // 更新现有席位
+    const newShares = userPosition.shares + shares;
+    const newAvgCost = (userPosition.avg_cost * userPosition.shares + cost) / newShares;
+
+    positions.set(userPosition.id, {
+      ...userPosition,
+      shares: newShares,
+      avg_cost: newAvgCost,
+      last_traded_at: new Date().toISOString(),
+    });
+
+    // 更新用户账户持仓
+    updatePosition(user_id, userPosition.id, {
+      shares: newShares,
+      avg_cost: newAvgCost,
+    });
+  } else {
+    // 创建新席位
+    const newPosition = createPosition({
+      topic_id,
+      option_id,
+      holder_id: user_id,
+      holder_name: user_name,
+      holder_avatar: user_avatar,
+      shares,
+      avg_cost: cost / shares,
+      current_value: cost,
+      unrealized_pnl: 0,
+    });
+
+    // 添加到用户账户
+    addPosition(user_id, {
+      id: newPosition.id,
+      topic_id,
+      option_id,
+      shares,
+      avg_cost: cost / shares,
+    });
+
+    userPosition = newPosition;
+  }
+
+  // 更新话题席位数据
+  updateTopic(topic_id, {
+    positions: {
+      ...topic.positions,
+      [option_id]: {
+        ...sideData,
+        total_shares: sideData.total_shares + shares,
+      },
+    },
+  });
+
+  // 更新价格
+  const newPrices = calculatePrice(
+    topic.positions[option_id].total_shares + shares,
+    topic.positions[otherOptionId].total_shares
+  );
+
+  updateTopic(topic_id, {
+    positions: {
+      ...topic.positions,
+      yes: { ...topic.positions.yes, current_price: newPrices.yes },
+      no: { ...topic.positions.no, current_price: newPrices.no },
+    },
+  });
+
+  // 更新领主状态
+  const newLordId = updateLordStatus(topic_id, option_id);
+
+  // 记录交易
+  const trade = {
+    id: `trade_${Date.now()}_${Math.random().toString(36).substr(2, 9)}`,
+    topic_id,
+    option_id,
+    buyer_id: user_id,
+    seller_id: null,
+    type: 'buy',
+    shares,
+    price: cost / shares,
+    total_cost: totalCost,
+    tax,
+    created_at: new Date().toISOString(),
+  };
+  trades.push(trade);
+
+  return {
+    success: true,
+    position: userPosition,
+    trade,
+    new_lord_id: newLordId,
+    current_price: newPrices[option_id],
+  };
+};
+
+/**
+ * 卖出席位
+ * @param {Object} tradeData - 交易数据
+ * @returns {Object} 交易结果
+ */
+export const sellPosition = (tradeData) => {
+  const { user_id, topic_id, option_id, shares } = tradeData;
+
+  // 验证
+  const topic = getTopic(topic_id);
+  if (!topic) throw new Error('话题不存在');
+  if (topic.status !== 'active') throw new Error('话题已关闭交易');
+
+  // 查找用户席位
+  const userPosition = Array.from(positions.values()).find(
+    (p) => p.topic_id === topic_id && p.option_id === option_id && p.holder_id === user_id
+  );
+
+  if (!userPosition) throw new Error('未持有该席位');
+  if (userPosition.shares < shares) throw new Error('持有份额不足');
+
+  // 获取当前市场数据
+  const sideData = topic.positions[option_id];
+  const otherOptionId = option_id === 'yes' ? 'no' : 'yes';
+  const otherSideData = topic.positions[otherOptionId];
+
+  // 计算收益
+  const revenue = calculateSellRevenue(sideData.total_shares, otherSideData.total_shares, shares);
+  const tax = calculateTax(revenue);
+  const netRevenue = revenue - tax;
+
+  // 返还积分
+  addCredits(user_id, netRevenue, `卖出预测席位 - ${topic.title}`);
+
+  // 税费进入奖池
+  updateTopic(topic_id, {
+    total_pool: topic.total_pool + tax,
+    stats: {
+      ...topic.stats,
+      total_volume: topic.stats.total_volume + revenue,
+      total_transactions: topic.stats.total_transactions + 1,
+    },
+  });
+
+  // 更新席位
+  const newShares = userPosition.shares - shares;
+
+  if (newShares === 0) {
+    // 完全卖出，删除席位
+    positions.delete(userPosition.id);
+    removePosition(user_id, userPosition.id);
+  } else {
+    // 部分卖出，更新份额
+    positions.set(userPosition.id, {
+      ...userPosition,
+      shares: newShares,
+      last_traded_at: new Date().toISOString(),
+    });
+
+    updatePosition(user_id, userPosition.id, { shares: newShares });
+  }
+
+  // 更新话题席位数据
+  updateTopic(topic_id, {
+    positions: {
+      ...topic.positions,
+      [option_id]: {
+        ...sideData,
+        total_shares: sideData.total_shares - shares,
+      },
+    },
+  });
+
+  // 更新价格
+  const newPrices = calculatePrice(
+    topic.positions[option_id].total_shares - shares,
+    topic.positions[otherOptionId].total_shares
+  );
+
+  updateTopic(topic_id, {
+    positions: {
+      ...topic.positions,
+      yes: { ...topic.positions.yes, current_price: newPrices.yes },
+      no: { ...topic.positions.no, current_price: newPrices.no },
+    },
+  });
+
+  // 更新领主状态
+  const newLordId = updateLordStatus(topic_id, option_id);
+
+  // 记录交易
+  const trade = {
+    id: `trade_${Date.now()}_${Math.random().toString(36).substr(2, 9)}`,
+    topic_id,
+    option_id,
+    buyer_id: null,
+    seller_id: user_id,
+    type: 'sell',
+    shares,
+    price: revenue / shares,
+    total_cost: netRevenue,
+    tax,
+    created_at: new Date().toISOString(),
+  };
+  trades.push(trade);
+
+  return {
+    success: true,
+    trade,
+    new_lord_id: newLordId,
+    current_price: newPrices[option_id],
+  };
+};
+
+// ==================== 结算 ====================
+
+/**
+ * 结算话题
+ * @param {string} topicId - 话题ID
+ * @param {string} result - 结果 'yes' | 'no'
+ * @param {string} evidence - 证据说明
+ * @param {string} settledBy - 裁决者ID
+ * @returns {Object} 结算结果
+ */
+export const settleTopic = (topicId, result, evidence, settledBy) => {
+  const topic = getTopic(topicId);
+
+  if (!topic) throw new Error('话题不存在');
+  if (topic.status === 'settled') throw new Error('话题已结算');
+
+  // 只有作者可以结算
+  if (topic.author_id !== settledBy) throw new Error('无权结算');
+
+  // 获取获胜方和失败方
+  const winningOption = result;
+  const losingOption = result === 'yes' ? 'no' : 'yes';
+
+  const winners = Array.from(positions.values()).filter(
+    (p) => p.topic_id === topicId && p.option_id === winningOption
+  );
+
+  const losers = Array.from(positions.values()).filter(
+    (p) => p.topic_id === topicId && p.option_id === losingOption
+  );
+
+  // 分配奖池
+  if (winners.length === 0) {
+    // 无人获胜，奖池返还给作者
+    addCredits(topic.author_id, topic.total_pool, '话题奖池返还');
+  } else {
+    // 计算获胜方总份额
+    const totalWinningShares = winners.reduce((sum, p) => sum + p.shares, 0);
+
+    // 按份额分配
+    winners.forEach((position) => {
+      const share = position.shares / totalWinningShares;
+      const reward = Math.floor(topic.total_pool * share);
+
+      // 返还本金 + 奖池分成
+      const refund = Math.floor(position.avg_cost * position.shares);
+      const total = refund + reward;
+
+      addCredits(position.holder_id, total, `预测获胜 - ${topic.title}`);
+
+      // 记录胜利
+      recordWin(position.holder_id, reward);
+
+      // 删除席位
+      positions.delete(position.id);
+      removePosition(position.holder_id, position.id);
+    });
+  }
+
+  // 失败方损失本金
+  losers.forEach((position) => {
+    const loss = Math.floor(position.avg_cost * position.shares);
+
+    // 记录失败
+    recordLoss(position.holder_id, loss);
+
+    // 删除席位
+    positions.delete(position.id);
+    removePosition(position.holder_id, position.id);
+  });
+
+  // 更新话题状态
+  updateTopic(topicId, {
+    status: 'settled',
+    settlement: {
+      result,
+      evidence,
+      settled_by: settledBy,
+      settled_at: new Date().toISOString(),
+    },
+  });
+
+  return {
+    success: true,
+    winners_count: winners.length,
+    losers_count: losers.length,
+    total_distributed: topic.total_pool,
+  };
+};
+
+// ==================== 数据导出 ====================
+
+export default {
+  MARKET_CONFIG,
+
+  // 定价算法
+  calculatePrice,
+  calculateBuyCost,
+  calculateSellRevenue,
+  calculateTax,
+
+  // 话题管理
+  createTopic,
+  getTopic,
+  updateTopic,
+  getTopics,
+
+  // 席位管理
+  getPosition,
+
+  // 交易
+  buyPosition,
+  sellPosition,
+
+  // 结算
+  settleTopic,
+};
diff --git a/src/views/ValueForum/PredictionTopicDetail.js b/src/views/ValueForum/PredictionTopicDetail.js
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..3c031869
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/views/ValueForum/PredictionTopicDetail.js
@@ -0,0 +1,532 @@
+/**
+ * 预测话题详情页
+ * 展示预测市场的完整信息、交易、评论等
+ */
+
+import React, { useState, useEffect } from 'react';
+import {
+  Box,
+  Container,
+  Heading,
+  Text,
+  Button,
+  HStack,
+  VStack,
+  Flex,
+  Badge,
+  Avatar,
+  Icon,
+  Progress,
+  Divider,
+  useDisclosure,
+  useToast,
+  SimpleGrid,
+} from '@chakra-ui/react';
+import {
+  TrendingUp,
+  TrendingDown,
+  Crown,
+  Users,
+  Clock,
+  DollarSign,
+  ShoppingCart,
+  ArrowLeftRight,
+  CheckCircle2,
+} from 'lucide-react';
+import { useParams, useNavigate } from 'react-router-dom';
+import { motion } from 'framer-motion';
+import { forumColors } from '@theme/forumTheme';
+import { getTopic } from '@services/predictionMarketService';
+import { getUserAccount } from '@services/creditSystemService';
+import { useAuth } from '@contexts/AuthContext';
+import TradeModal from './components/TradeModal';
+
+const MotionBox = motion(Box);
+
+const PredictionTopicDetail = () => {
+  const { topicId } = useParams();
+  const navigate = useNavigate();
+  const toast = useToast();
+  const { user } = useAuth();
+
+  // 状态
+  const [topic, setTopic] = useState(null);
+  const [userAccount, setUserAccount] = useState(null);
+  const [tradeMode, setTradeMode] = useState('buy');
+
+  // 模态框
+  const {
+    isOpen: isTradeModalOpen,
+    onOpen: onTradeModalOpen,
+    onClose: onTradeModalClose,
+  } = useDisclosure();
+
+  // 加载话题数据
+  useEffect(() => {
+    const loadTopic = () => {
+      const topicData = getTopic(topicId);
+      if (topicData) {
+        setTopic(topicData);
+      } else {
+        toast({
+          title: '话题不存在',
+          status: 'error',
+          duration: 3000,
+        });
+        navigate('/value-forum');
+      }
+    };
+
+    loadTopic();
+
+    if (user) {
+      setUserAccount(getUserAccount(user.id));
+    }
+  }, [topicId, user]);
+
+  // 打开交易弹窗
+  const handleOpenTrade = (mode) => {
+    if (!user) {
+      toast({
+        title: '请先登录',
+        status: 'warning',
+        duration: 3000,
+      });
+      return;
+    }
+
+    setTradeMode(mode);
+    onTradeModalOpen();
+  };
+
+  // 交易成功回调
+  const handleTradeSuccess = () => {
+    // 刷新话题数据
+    setTopic(getTopic(topicId));
+    setUserAccount(getUserAccount(user.id));
+  };
+
+  if (!topic) {
+    return null;
+  }
+
+  // 获取选项数据
+  const yesData = topic.positions?.yes || { total_shares: 0, current_price: 500, lord_id: null };
+  const noData = topic.positions?.no || { total_shares: 0, current_price: 500, lord_id: null };
+
+  // 计算总份额
+  const totalShares = yesData.total_shares + noData.total_shares;
+
+  // 计算百分比
+  const yesPercent = totalShares > 0 ? (yesData.total_shares / totalShares) * 100 : 50;
+  const noPercent = totalShares > 0 ? (noData.total_shares / totalShares) * 100 : 50;
+
+  // 格式化时间
+  const formatTime = (dateString) => {
+    const date = new Date(dateString);
+    const now = new Date();
+    const diff = date - now;
+
+    const days = Math.floor(diff / 86400000);
+    const hours = Math.floor(diff / 3600000);
+
+    if (days > 0) return `${days}天后`;
+    if (hours > 0) return `${hours}小时后`;
+    return '即将截止';
+  };
+
+  return (
+    <Box minH="100vh" bg={forumColors.background.main} pt="80px" pb="20">
+      <Container maxW="container.xl">
+        {/* 头部：返回按钮 */}
+        <Button
+          variant="ghost"
+          size="sm"
+          onClick={() => navigate('/value-forum')}
+          mb="6"
+          color={forumColors.text.secondary}
+          _hover={{ bg: forumColors.background.hover }}
+        >
+          ← 返回论坛
+        </Button>
+
+        <SimpleGrid columns={{ base: 1, lg: 3 }} spacing="6">
+          {/* 左侧：主要内容 */}
+          <Box gridColumn={{ base: '1', lg: '1 / 3' }}>
+            <VStack spacing="6" align="stretch">
+              {/* 话题信息卡片 */}
+              <MotionBox
+                initial={{ opacity: 0, y: 20 }}
+                animate={{ opacity: 1, y: 0 }}
+                transition={{ duration: 0.5 }}
+                bg={forumColors.background.card}
+                borderRadius="xl"
+                border="1px solid"
+                borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+                overflow="hidden"
+              >
+                {/* 头部 */}
+                <Box
+                  bg={forumColors.gradients.goldSubtle}
+                  px="6"
+                  py="4"
+                  borderBottom="1px solid"
+                  borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+                >
+                  <HStack justify="space-between">
+                    <Badge
+                      bg={forumColors.primary[500]}
+                      color="white"
+                      px="3"
+                      py="1"
+                      borderRadius="full"
+                      fontSize="sm"
+                    >
+                      {topic.category}
+                    </Badge>
+
+                    <HStack spacing="3">
+                      <Icon as={Clock} boxSize="16px" color={forumColors.text.secondary} />
+                      <Text fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                        {formatTime(topic.deadline)} 截止
+                      </Text>
+                    </HStack>
+                  </HStack>
+
+                  <Heading
+                    as="h1"
+                    fontSize="2xl"
+                    fontWeight="bold"
+                    color={forumColors.text.primary}
+                    mt="4"
+                  >
+                    {topic.title}
+                  </Heading>
+
+                  <Text fontSize="md" color={forumColors.text.secondary} mt="3">
+                    {topic.description}
+                  </Text>
+
+                  {/* 作者信息 */}
+                  <HStack mt="4" spacing="3">
+                    <Avatar
+                      size="sm"
+                      name={topic.author_name}
+                      src={topic.author_avatar}
+                      bg={forumColors.gradients.goldPrimary}
+                    />
+                    <VStack align="start" spacing="0">
+                      <Text fontSize="sm" fontWeight="600" color={forumColors.text.primary}>
+                        {topic.author_name}
+                      </Text>
+                      <Text fontSize="xs" color={forumColors.text.tertiary}>
+                        发起者
+                      </Text>
+                    </VStack>
+                  </HStack>
+                </Box>
+
+                {/* 市场数据 */}
+                <Box p="6">
+                  <SimpleGrid columns={{ base: 1, md: 2 }} spacing="6">
+                    {/* Yes 方 */}
+                    <Box
+                      bg="linear-gradient(135deg, rgba(72, 187, 120, 0.1) 0%, rgba(72, 187, 120, 0.05) 100%)"
+                      border="2px solid"
+                      borderColor="green.400"
+                      borderRadius="xl"
+                      p="6"
+                      position="relative"
+                    >
+                      {yesData.lord_id && (
+                        <HStack
+                          position="absolute"
+                          top="3"
+                          right="3"
+                          spacing="1"
+                          bg="yellow.400"
+                          px="2"
+                          py="1"
+                          borderRadius="full"
+                        >
+                          <Icon as={Crown} boxSize="12px" color="white" />
+                          <Text fontSize="xs" fontWeight="bold" color="white">
+                            领主
+                          </Text>
+                        </HStack>
+                      )}
+
+                      <VStack align="start" spacing="4">
+                        <HStack spacing="2">
+                          <Icon as={TrendingUp} boxSize="20px" color="green.500" />
+                          <Text fontSize="lg" fontWeight="700" color="green.600">
+                            看涨 / Yes
+                          </Text>
+                        </HStack>
+
+                        <VStack align="start" spacing="1">
+                          <Text fontSize="xs" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                            当前价格
+                          </Text>
+                          <HStack spacing="1">
+                            <Text fontSize="3xl" fontWeight="bold" color="green.600">
+                              {Math.round(yesData.current_price)}
+                            </Text>
+                            <Text fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                              积分/份
+                            </Text>
+                          </HStack>
+                        </VStack>
+
+                        <Divider />
+
+                        <HStack justify="space-between" w="full">
+                          <Text fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                            总份额
+                          </Text>
+                          <Text fontSize="md" fontWeight="600" color="green.600">
+                            {yesData.total_shares}份
+                          </Text>
+                        </HStack>
+
+                        <HStack justify="space-between" w="full">
+                          <Text fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                            市场占比
+                          </Text>
+                          <Text fontSize="md" fontWeight="600" color="green.600">
+                            {yesPercent.toFixed(1)}%
+                          </Text>
+                        </HStack>
+                      </VStack>
+                    </Box>
+
+                    {/* No 方 */}
+                    <Box
+                      bg="linear-gradient(135deg, rgba(245, 101, 101, 0.1) 0%, rgba(245, 101, 101, 0.05) 100%)"
+                      border="2px solid"
+                      borderColor="red.400"
+                      borderRadius="xl"
+                      p="6"
+                      position="relative"
+                    >
+                      {noData.lord_id && (
+                        <HStack
+                          position="absolute"
+                          top="3"
+                          right="3"
+                          spacing="1"
+                          bg="yellow.400"
+                          px="2"
+                          py="1"
+                          borderRadius="full"
+                        >
+                          <Icon as={Crown} boxSize="12px" color="white" />
+                          <Text fontSize="xs" fontWeight="bold" color="white">
+                            领主
+                          </Text>
+                        </HStack>
+                      )}
+
+                      <VStack align="start" spacing="4">
+                        <HStack spacing="2">
+                          <Icon as={TrendingDown} boxSize="20px" color="red.500" />
+                          <Text fontSize="lg" fontWeight="700" color="red.600">
+                            看跌 / No
+                          </Text>
+                        </HStack>
+
+                        <VStack align="start" spacing="1">
+                          <Text fontSize="xs" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                            当前价格
+                          </Text>
+                          <HStack spacing="1">
+                            <Text fontSize="3xl" fontWeight="bold" color="red.600">
+                              {Math.round(noData.current_price)}
+                            </Text>
+                            <Text fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                              积分/份
+                            </Text>
+                          </HStack>
+                        </VStack>
+
+                        <Divider />
+
+                        <HStack justify="space-between" w="full">
+                          <Text fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                            总份额
+                          </Text>
+                          <Text fontSize="md" fontWeight="600" color="red.600">
+                            {noData.total_shares}份
+                          </Text>
+                        </HStack>
+
+                        <HStack justify="space-between" w="full">
+                          <Text fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                            市场占比
+                          </Text>
+                          <Text fontSize="md" fontWeight="600" color="red.600">
+                            {noPercent.toFixed(1)}%
+                          </Text>
+                        </HStack>
+                      </VStack>
+                    </Box>
+                  </SimpleGrid>
+
+                  {/* 市场情绪进度条 */}
+                  <Box mt="6">
+                    <Flex justify="space-between" mb="2">
+                      <Text fontSize="sm" fontWeight="600" color={forumColors.text.primary}>
+                        市场情绪分布
+                      </Text>
+                      <Text fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                        {yesPercent.toFixed(1)}% vs {noPercent.toFixed(1)}%
+                      </Text>
+                    </Flex>
+                    <Progress
+                      value={yesPercent}
+                      size="lg"
+                      borderRadius="full"
+                      bg="red.200"
+                      sx={{
+                        '& > div': {
+                          bg: 'linear-gradient(90deg, #48BB78 0%, #38A169 100%)',
+                        },
+                      }}
+                    />
+                  </Box>
+                </Box>
+              </MotionBox>
+            </VStack>
+          </Box>
+
+          {/* 右侧：操作面板 */}
+          <Box gridColumn={{ base: '1', lg: '3' }}>
+            <VStack spacing="6" align="stretch" position="sticky" top="90px">
+              {/* 奖池信息 */}
+              <Box
+                bg={forumColors.background.card}
+                borderRadius="xl"
+                border="1px solid"
+                borderColor={forumColors.border.gold}
+                p="6"
+              >
+                <VStack spacing="4" align="stretch">
+                  <HStack justify="center" spacing="2">
+                    <Icon as={DollarSign} boxSize="24px" color={forumColors.primary[500]} />
+                    <Text fontSize="sm" fontWeight="600" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                      当前奖池
+                    </Text>
+                  </HStack>
+
+                  <Text
+                    fontSize="4xl"
+                    fontWeight="bold"
+                    color={forumColors.primary[500]}
+                    textAlign="center"
+                  >
+                    {topic.total_pool}
+                  </Text>
+
+                  <Text fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.secondary} textAlign="center">
+                    积分
+                  </Text>
+
+                  <Divider />
+
+                  <HStack justify="space-between" fontSize="sm">
+                    <Text color={forumColors.text.secondary}>参与人数</Text>
+                    <HStack spacing="1">
+                      <Icon as={Users} boxSize="14px" />
+                      <Text fontWeight="600">{topic.stats.unique_traders.size}</Text>
+                    </HStack>
+                  </HStack>
+
+                  <HStack justify="space-between" fontSize="sm">
+                    <Text color={forumColors.text.secondary}>总交易量</Text>
+                    <Text fontWeight="600">{Math.round(topic.stats.total_volume)}</Text>
+                  </HStack>
+                </VStack>
+              </Box>
+
+              {/* 交易按钮 */}
+              {topic.status === 'active' && (
+                <VStack spacing="3">
+                  <Button
+                    leftIcon={<ShoppingCart size={18} />}
+                    bg={forumColors.gradients.goldPrimary}
+                    color={forumColors.background.main}
+                    size="lg"
+                    w="full"
+                    fontWeight="bold"
+                    onClick={() => handleOpenTrade('buy')}
+                    _hover={{
+                      transform: 'translateY(-2px)',
+                      boxShadow: forumColors.shadows.goldHover,
+                    }}
+                    _active={{ transform: 'translateY(0)' }}
+                  >
+                    购买席位
+                  </Button>
+
+                  <Button
+                    leftIcon={<ArrowLeftRight size={18} />}
+                    variant="outline"
+                    borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+                    color={forumColors.text.primary}
+                    size="lg"
+                    w="full"
+                    fontWeight="bold"
+                    onClick={() => handleOpenTrade('sell')}
+                    _hover={{
+                      bg: forumColors.background.hover,
+                      borderColor: forumColors.border.gold,
+                    }}
+                  >
+                    卖出席位
+                  </Button>
+                </VStack>
+              )}
+
+              {/* 用户余额 */}
+              {user && userAccount && (
+                <Box
+                  bg={forumColors.background.hover}
+                  borderRadius="lg"
+                  p="4"
+                  border="1px solid"
+                  borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+                >
+                  <VStack spacing="2" align="stretch" fontSize="sm">
+                    <HStack justify="space-between">
+                      <Text color={forumColors.text.secondary}>可用余额</Text>
+                      <Text fontWeight="600" color={forumColors.text.primary}>
+                        {userAccount.balance} 积分
+                      </Text>
+                    </HStack>
+                    <HStack justify="space-between">
+                      <Text color={forumColors.text.secondary}>冻结积分</Text>
+                      <Text fontWeight="600" color={forumColors.text.primary}>
+                        {userAccount.frozen} 积分
+                      </Text>
+                    </HStack>
+                  </VStack>
+                </Box>
+              )}
+            </VStack>
+          </Box>
+        </SimpleGrid>
+      </Container>
+
+      {/* 交易模态框 */}
+      <TradeModal
+        isOpen={isTradeModalOpen}
+        onClose={onTradeModalClose}
+        topic={topic}
+        mode={tradeMode}
+        onTradeSuccess={handleTradeSuccess}
+      />
+    </Box>
+  );
+};
+
+export default PredictionTopicDetail;
diff --git a/src/views/ValueForum/components/CreatePredictionModal.js b/src/views/ValueForum/components/CreatePredictionModal.js
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..4fd3ee6c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/views/ValueForum/components/CreatePredictionModal.js
@@ -0,0 +1,386 @@
+/**
+ * 创建预测话题模态框
+ * 用户可以发起新的预测市场话题
+ */
+
+import React, { useState } from 'react';
+import {
+  Modal,
+  ModalOverlay,
+  ModalContent,
+  ModalHeader,
+  ModalBody,
+  ModalFooter,
+  ModalCloseButton,
+  Button,
+  VStack,
+  FormControl,
+  FormLabel,
+  Input,
+  Textarea,
+  Select,
+  HStack,
+  Text,
+  Box,
+  Icon,
+  Alert,
+  AlertIcon,
+  useToast,
+} from '@chakra-ui/react';
+import { Zap, Calendar, DollarSign } from 'lucide-react';
+import { forumColors } from '@theme/forumTheme';
+import { createTopic } from '@services/predictionMarketService';
+import { getUserAccount, CREDIT_CONFIG } from '@services/creditSystemService';
+import { useAuth } from '@contexts/AuthContext';
+
+const CreatePredictionModal = ({ isOpen, onClose, onTopicCreated }) => {
+  const toast = useToast();
+  const { user } = useAuth();
+
+  // 表单状态
+  const [formData, setFormData] = useState({
+    title: '',
+    description: '',
+    category: 'stock',
+    deadline_days: 7,
+  });
+
+  const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false);
+
+  // 获取用户余额
+  const userAccount = user ? getUserAccount(user.id) : null;
+
+  // 处理表单变化
+  const handleChange = (field, value) => {
+    setFormData((prev) => ({ ...prev, [field]: value }));
+  };
+
+  // 提交表单
+  const handleSubmit = async () => {
+    try {
+      setIsSubmitting(true);
+
+      // 验证
+      if (!formData.title.trim()) {
+        toast({
+          title: '请填写话题标题',
+          status: 'warning',
+          duration: 3000,
+        });
+        return;
+      }
+
+      if (!formData.description.trim()) {
+        toast({
+          title: '请填写话题描述',
+          status: 'warning',
+          duration: 3000,
+        });
+        return;
+      }
+
+      // 检查余额
+      if (userAccount.balance < CREDIT_CONFIG.CREATE_TOPIC_COST) {
+        toast({
+          title: '积分不足',
+          description: `创建话题需要${CREDIT_CONFIG.CREATE_TOPIC_COST}积分`,
+          status: 'error',
+          duration: 3000,
+        });
+        return;
+      }
+
+      // 计算截止时间
+      const deadline = new Date();
+      deadline.setDate(deadline.getDate() + parseInt(formData.deadline_days));
+
+      const settlement_date = new Date(deadline);
+      settlement_date.setDate(settlement_date.getDate() + 1);
+
+      // 创建话题
+      const newTopic = createTopic({
+        author_id: user.id,
+        author_name: user.name || user.username,
+        author_avatar: user.avatar,
+        title: formData.title,
+        description: formData.description,
+        category: formData.category,
+        deadline: deadline.toISOString(),
+        settlement_date: settlement_date.toISOString(),
+      });
+
+      toast({
+        title: '创建成功！',
+        description: `话题已发布，扣除${CREDIT_CONFIG.CREATE_TOPIC_COST}积分`,
+        status: 'success',
+        duration: 3000,
+      });
+
+      // 重置表单
+      setFormData({
+        title: '',
+        description: '',
+        category: 'stock',
+        deadline_days: 7,
+      });
+
+      // 通知父组件
+      if (onTopicCreated) {
+        onTopicCreated(newTopic);
+      }
+
+      onClose();
+    } catch (error) {
+      console.error('创建话题失败:', error);
+      toast({
+        title: '创建失败',
+        description: error.message,
+        status: 'error',
+        duration: 3000,
+      });
+    } finally {
+      setIsSubmitting(false);
+    }
+  };
+
+  return (
+    <Modal isOpen={isOpen} onClose={onClose} size="xl" isCentered>
+      <ModalOverlay backdropFilter="blur(4px)" />
+      <ModalContent
+        bg={forumColors.background.card}
+        borderRadius="xl"
+        border="1px solid"
+        borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+      >
+        <ModalHeader
+          bg={forumColors.gradients.goldSubtle}
+          borderTopRadius="xl"
+          borderBottom="1px solid"
+          borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+        >
+          <HStack spacing="2">
+            <Icon as={Zap} boxSize="20px" color={forumColors.primary[500]} />
+            <Text color={forumColors.text.primary}>发起预测话题</Text>
+          </HStack>
+        </ModalHeader>
+        <ModalCloseButton color={forumColors.text.primary} />
+
+        <ModalBody py="6">
+          <VStack spacing="5" align="stretch">
+            {/* 提示信息 */}
+            <Alert
+              status="info"
+              bg={forumColors.background.hover}
+              borderRadius="lg"
+              border="1px solid"
+              borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+            >
+              <AlertIcon color={forumColors.primary[500]} />
+              <VStack align="start" spacing="1" flex="1">
+                <Text fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.primary} fontWeight="600">
+                  创建预测话题
+                </Text>
+                <Text fontSize="xs" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                  • 创建费用：{CREDIT_CONFIG.CREATE_TOPIC_COST}积分（进入奖池）
+                </Text>
+                <Text fontSize="xs" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                  • 作者不能参与自己发起的话题
+                </Text>
+                <Text fontSize="xs" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                  • 截止后由作者提交结果进行结算
+                </Text>
+              </VStack>
+            </Alert>
+
+            {/* 话题标题 */}
+            <FormControl isRequired>
+              <FormLabel fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.primary}>
+                话题标题
+              </FormLabel>
+              <Input
+                placeholder="例如：贵州茅台下周会涨吗？"
+                value={formData.title}
+                onChange={(e) => handleChange('title', e.target.value)}
+                bg={forumColors.background.main}
+                border="1px solid"
+                borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+                color={forumColors.text.primary}
+                _placeholder={{ color: forumColors.text.tertiary }}
+                _hover={{ borderColor: forumColors.border.light }}
+                _focus={{
+                  borderColor: forumColors.border.gold,
+                  boxShadow: `0 0 0 1px ${forumColors.border.goldGlow}`,
+                }}
+              />
+            </FormControl>
+
+            {/* 话题描述 */}
+            <FormControl isRequired>
+              <FormLabel fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.primary}>
+                话题描述
+              </FormLabel>
+              <Textarea
+                placeholder="详细描述预测的内容、判断标准、数据来源等..."
+                value={formData.description}
+                onChange={(e) => handleChange('description', e.target.value)}
+                rows={4}
+                bg={forumColors.background.main}
+                border="1px solid"
+                borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+                color={forumColors.text.primary}
+                _placeholder={{ color: forumColors.text.tertiary }}
+                _hover={{ borderColor: forumColors.border.light }}
+                _focus={{
+                  borderColor: forumColors.border.gold,
+                  boxShadow: `0 0 0 1px ${forumColors.border.goldGlow}`,
+                }}
+              />
+            </FormControl>
+
+            {/* 分类 */}
+            <FormControl>
+              <FormLabel fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.primary}>
+                分类
+              </FormLabel>
+              <Select
+                value={formData.category}
+                onChange={(e) => handleChange('category', e.target.value)}
+                bg={forumColors.background.main}
+                border="1px solid"
+                borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+                color={forumColors.text.primary}
+                _hover={{ borderColor: forumColors.border.light }}
+                _focus={{
+                  borderColor: forumColors.border.gold,
+                  boxShadow: `0 0 0 1px ${forumColors.border.goldGlow}`,
+                }}
+              >
+                <option value="stock">股票行情</option>
+                <option value="index">指数走势</option>
+                <option value="concept">概念板块</option>
+                <option value="policy">政策影响</option>
+                <option value="event">事件预测</option>
+                <option value="other">其他</option>
+              </Select>
+            </FormControl>
+
+            {/* 截止时间 */}
+            <FormControl>
+              <FormLabel fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.primary}>
+                <HStack spacing="2">
+                  <Icon as={Calendar} boxSize="16px" />
+                  <Text>交易截止时间</Text>
+                </HStack>
+              </FormLabel>
+              <Select
+                value={formData.deadline_days}
+                onChange={(e) => handleChange('deadline_days', e.target.value)}
+                bg={forumColors.background.main}
+                border="1px solid"
+                borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+                color={forumColors.text.primary}
+                _hover={{ borderColor: forumColors.border.light }}
+                _focus={{
+                  borderColor: forumColors.border.gold,
+                  boxShadow: `0 0 0 1px ${forumColors.border.goldGlow}`,
+                }}
+              >
+                <option value="1">1天后</option>
+                <option value="3">3天后</option>
+                <option value="7">7天后（推荐）</option>
+                <option value="14">14天后</option>
+                <option value="30">30天后</option>
+              </Select>
+              <Text fontSize="xs" color={forumColors.text.tertiary} mt="2">
+                截止后次日可提交结果进行结算
+              </Text>
+            </FormControl>
+
+            {/* 费用说明 */}
+            <Box
+              bg={forumColors.gradients.goldSubtle}
+              border="1px solid"
+              borderColor={forumColors.border.gold}
+              borderRadius="lg"
+              p="4"
+            >
+              <HStack justify="space-between">
+                <VStack align="start" spacing="1">
+                  <Text fontSize="sm" fontWeight="600" color={forumColors.text.primary}>
+                    创建费用
+                  </Text>
+                  <Text fontSize="xs" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                    将进入奖池，奖励给获胜者
+                  </Text>
+                </VStack>
+
+                <HStack spacing="1">
+                  <Icon as={DollarSign} boxSize="20px" color={forumColors.primary[500]} />
+                  <Text fontSize="2xl" fontWeight="bold" color={forumColors.primary[500]}>
+                    {CREDIT_CONFIG.CREATE_TOPIC_COST}
+                  </Text>
+                  <Text fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                    积分
+                  </Text>
+                </HStack>
+              </HStack>
+
+              <Box mt="3" pt="3" borderTop="1px solid" borderColor={forumColors.border.default}>
+                <HStack justify="space-between" fontSize="sm">
+                  <Text color={forumColors.text.secondary}>你的余额：</Text>
+                  <Text fontWeight="600" color={forumColors.text.primary}>
+                    {userAccount?.balance || 0} 积分
+                  </Text>
+                </HStack>
+                <HStack justify="space-between" fontSize="sm" mt="1">
+                  <Text color={forumColors.text.secondary}>创建后：</Text>
+                  <Text
+                    fontWeight="600"
+                    color={
+                      (userAccount?.balance || 0) >= CREDIT_CONFIG.CREATE_TOPIC_COST
+                        ? forumColors.success[500]
+                        : forumColors.error[500]
+                    }
+                  >
+                    {(userAccount?.balance || 0) - CREDIT_CONFIG.CREATE_TOPIC_COST} 积分
+                  </Text>
+                </HStack>
+              </Box>
+            </Box>
+          </VStack>
+        </ModalBody>
+
+        <ModalFooter borderTop="1px solid" borderColor={forumColors.border.default}>
+          <HStack spacing="3">
+            <Button
+              variant="ghost"
+              onClick={onClose}
+              color={forumColors.text.secondary}
+              _hover={{ bg: forumColors.background.hover }}
+            >
+              取消
+            </Button>
+            <Button
+              bg={forumColors.gradients.goldPrimary}
+              color={forumColors.background.main}
+              fontWeight="bold"
+              onClick={handleSubmit}
+              isLoading={isSubmitting}
+              loadingText="创建中..."
+              isDisabled={(userAccount?.balance || 0) < CREDIT_CONFIG.CREATE_TOPIC_COST}
+              _hover={{
+                opacity: 0.9,
+                transform: 'translateY(-2px)',
+              }}
+              _active={{ transform: 'translateY(0)' }}
+            >
+              发布话题
+            </Button>
+          </HStack>
+        </ModalFooter>
+      </ModalContent>
+    </Modal>
+  );
+};
+
+export default CreatePredictionModal;
diff --git a/src/views/ValueForum/components/PredictionTopicCard.js b/src/views/ValueForum/components/PredictionTopicCard.js
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..96ec18e4
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/views/ValueForum/components/PredictionTopicCard.js
@@ -0,0 +1,327 @@
+/**
+ * 预测话题卡片组件
+ * 展示预测市场的话题概览
+ */
+
+import React from 'react';
+import {
+  Box,
+  Text,
+  HStack,
+  VStack,
+  Badge,
+  Progress,
+  Flex,
+  Avatar,
+  Icon,
+  useColorModeValue,
+} from '@chakra-ui/react';
+import { motion } from 'framer-motion';
+import {
+  TrendingUp,
+  TrendingDown,
+  Crown,
+  Users,
+  Clock,
+  DollarSign,
+  Zap,
+} from 'lucide-react';
+import { useNavigate } from 'react-router-dom';
+import { forumColors } from '@theme/forumTheme';
+
+const MotionBox = motion(Box);
+
+const PredictionTopicCard = ({ topic }) => {
+  const navigate = useNavigate();
+
+  // 处理卡片点击
+  const handleCardClick = () => {
+    navigate(`/value-forum/prediction/${topic.id}`);
+  };
+
+  // 格式化数字
+  const formatNumber = (num) => {
+    if (num >= 10000) return `${(num / 10000).toFixed(1)}万`;
+    if (num >= 1000) return `${(num / 1000).toFixed(1)}K`;
+    return num;
+  };
+
+  // 格式化时间
+  const formatTime = (dateString) => {
+    const date = new Date(dateString);
+    const now = new Date();
+    const diff = date - now;
+
+    const days = Math.floor(diff / 86400000);
+    const hours = Math.floor(diff / 3600000);
+
+    if (days > 0) return `${days}天后`;
+    if (hours > 0) return `${hours}小时后`;
+    return '即将截止';
+  };
+
+  // 获取选项数据
+  const yesData = topic.positions?.yes || { total_shares: 0, current_price: 500, lord_id: null };
+  const noData = topic.positions?.no || { total_shares: 0, current_price: 500, lord_id: null };
+
+  // 计算总份额
+  const totalShares = yesData.total_shares + noData.total_shares;
+
+  // 计算百分比
+  const yesPercent = totalShares > 0 ? (yesData.total_shares / totalShares) * 100 : 50;
+  const noPercent = totalShares > 0 ? (noData.total_shares / totalShares) * 100 : 50;
+
+  // 状态颜色
+  const statusColorMap = {
+    active: forumColors.success[500],
+    trading_closed: forumColors.warning[500],
+    settled: forumColors.text.secondary,
+  };
+
+  const statusLabelMap = {
+    active: '交易中',
+    trading_closed: '已截止',
+    settled: '已结算',
+  };
+
+  return (
+    <MotionBox
+      bg={forumColors.background.card}
+      borderRadius="xl"
+      overflow="hidden"
+      border="2px solid"
+      borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+      cursor="pointer"
+      onClick={handleCardClick}
+      whileHover={{ y: -8, scale: 1.02 }}
+      transition={{ duration: 0.3 }}
+      _hover={{
+        borderColor: forumColors.border.gold,
+        boxShadow: forumColors.shadows.gold,
+      }}
+    >
+      {/* 头部：状态标识 */}
+      <Box
+        bg={forumColors.gradients.goldSubtle}
+        px="4"
+        py="2"
+        borderBottom="1px solid"
+        borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+      >
+        <Flex justify="space-between" align="center">
+          <HStack spacing="2">
+            <Icon as={Zap} boxSize="16px" color={forumColors.primary[500]} />
+            <Text fontSize="xs" fontWeight="bold" color={forumColors.primary[500]}>
+              预测市场
+            </Text>
+          </HStack>
+
+          <Badge
+            bg={statusColorMap[topic.status]}
+            color="white"
+            px="3"
+            py="1"
+            borderRadius="full"
+            fontSize="xs"
+            fontWeight="bold"
+          >
+            {statusLabelMap[topic.status]}
+          </Badge>
+        </Flex>
+      </Box>
+
+      {/* 内容区域 */}
+      <VStack align="stretch" p="5" spacing="4">
+        {/* 话题标题 */}
+        <Text
+          fontSize="lg"
+          fontWeight="700"
+          color={forumColors.text.primary}
+          noOfLines={2}
+          lineHeight="1.4"
+        >
+          {topic.title}
+        </Text>
+
+        {/* 描述 */}
+        {topic.description && (
+          <Text
+            fontSize="sm"
+            color={forumColors.text.secondary}
+            noOfLines={2}
+            lineHeight="1.6"
+          >
+            {topic.description}
+          </Text>
+        )}
+
+        {/* 双向价格卡片 */}
+        <HStack spacing="3" w="full">
+          {/* Yes 方 */}
+          <Box
+            flex="1"
+            bg="linear-gradient(135deg, rgba(72, 187, 120, 0.1) 0%, rgba(72, 187, 120, 0.05) 100%)"
+            border="2px solid"
+            borderColor="green.400"
+            borderRadius="lg"
+            p="3"
+            position="relative"
+            overflow="hidden"
+          >
+            {/* 领主徽章 */}
+            {yesData.lord_id && (
+              <Icon
+                as={Crown}
+                position="absolute"
+                top="2"
+                right="2"
+                boxSize="16px"
+                color="yellow.400"
+              />
+            )}
+
+            <VStack spacing="1" align="start">
+              <HStack spacing="1">
+                <Icon as={TrendingUp} boxSize="14px" color="green.500" />
+                <Text fontSize="xs" fontWeight="600" color="green.600">
+                  看涨 / Yes
+                </Text>
+              </HStack>
+
+              <Text fontSize="2xl" fontWeight="bold" color="green.600">
+                {Math.round(yesData.current_price)}
+                <Text as="span" fontSize="xs" ml="1">
+                  积分
+                </Text>
+              </Text>
+
+              <Text fontSize="xs" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                {yesData.total_shares}份 · {yesPercent.toFixed(0)}%
+              </Text>
+            </VStack>
+          </Box>
+
+          {/* No 方 */}
+          <Box
+            flex="1"
+            bg="linear-gradient(135deg, rgba(245, 101, 101, 0.1) 0%, rgba(245, 101, 101, 0.05) 100%)"
+            border="2px solid"
+            borderColor="red.400"
+            borderRadius="lg"
+            p="3"
+            position="relative"
+            overflow="hidden"
+          >
+            {/* 领主徽章 */}
+            {noData.lord_id && (
+              <Icon
+                as={Crown}
+                position="absolute"
+                top="2"
+                right="2"
+                boxSize="16px"
+                color="yellow.400"
+              />
+            )}
+
+            <VStack spacing="1" align="start">
+              <HStack spacing="1">
+                <Icon as={TrendingDown} boxSize="14px" color="red.500" />
+                <Text fontSize="xs" fontWeight="600" color="red.600">
+                  看跌 / No
+                </Text>
+              </HStack>
+
+              <Text fontSize="2xl" fontWeight="bold" color="red.600">
+                {Math.round(noData.current_price)}
+                <Text as="span" fontSize="xs" ml="1">
+                  积分
+                </Text>
+              </Text>
+
+              <Text fontSize="xs" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                {noData.total_shares}份 · {noPercent.toFixed(0)}%
+              </Text>
+            </VStack>
+          </Box>
+        </HStack>
+
+        {/* 市场情绪进度条 */}
+        <Box>
+          <Flex justify="space-between" mb="1">
+            <Text fontSize="xs" color={forumColors.text.tertiary}>
+              市场情绪
+            </Text>
+            <Text fontSize="xs" color={forumColors.text.tertiary}>
+              {yesPercent.toFixed(0)}% vs {noPercent.toFixed(0)}%
+            </Text>
+          </Flex>
+          <Progress
+            value={yesPercent}
+            size="sm"
+            borderRadius="full"
+            bg="red.100"
+            sx={{
+              '& > div': {
+                bg: 'linear-gradient(90deg, #48BB78 0%, #38A169 100%)',
+              },
+            }}
+          />
+        </Box>
+
+        {/* 奖池和数据 */}
+        <HStack spacing="4" fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+          <HStack spacing="1">
+            <Icon as={DollarSign} boxSize="16px" color={forumColors.primary[500]} />
+            <Text fontWeight="600" color={forumColors.primary[500]}>
+              {formatNumber(topic.total_pool)}
+            </Text>
+            <Text fontSize="xs">奖池</Text>
+          </HStack>
+
+          <HStack spacing="1">
+            <Icon as={Users} boxSize="16px" />
+            <Text>{topic.stats?.unique_traders?.size || 0}人</Text>
+          </HStack>
+
+          <HStack spacing="1">
+            <Icon as={Clock} boxSize="16px" />
+            <Text>{formatTime(topic.deadline)}</Text>
+          </HStack>
+        </HStack>
+
+        {/* 底部：作者信息 */}
+        <Flex justify="space-between" align="center" pt="2" borderTop="1px solid" borderColor={forumColors.border.default}>
+          <HStack spacing="2">
+            <Avatar
+              size="xs"
+              name={topic.author_name}
+              src={topic.author_avatar}
+              bg={forumColors.gradients.goldPrimary}
+              color={forumColors.background.main}
+            />
+            <Text fontSize="xs" color={forumColors.text.tertiary}>
+              {topic.author_name}
+            </Text>
+          </HStack>
+
+          {/* 分类标签 */}
+          {topic.category && (
+            <Badge
+              bg={forumColors.background.hover}
+              color={forumColors.text.primary}
+              px="2"
+              py="1"
+              borderRadius="md"
+              fontSize="xs"
+            >
+              {topic.category}
+            </Badge>
+          )}
+        </Flex>
+      </VStack>
+    </MotionBox>
+  );
+};
+
+export default PredictionTopicCard;
diff --git a/src/views/ValueForum/components/TradeModal.js b/src/views/ValueForum/components/TradeModal.js
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..14389c35
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/views/ValueForum/components/TradeModal.js
@@ -0,0 +1,494 @@
+/**
+ * 交易模态框组件
+ * 用于买入/卖出预测市场席位
+ */
+
+import React, { useState, useEffect } from 'react';
+import {
+  Modal,
+  ModalOverlay,
+  ModalContent,
+  ModalHeader,
+  ModalBody,
+  ModalFooter,
+  ModalCloseButton,
+  Button,
+  VStack,
+  HStack,
+  Text,
+  Box,
+  Icon,
+  Slider,
+  SliderTrack,
+  SliderFilledTrack,
+  SliderThumb,
+  RadioGroup,
+  Radio,
+  Stack,
+  Flex,
+  useToast,
+  Badge,
+} from '@chakra-ui/react';
+import { TrendingUp, TrendingDown, DollarSign, AlertCircle, Zap } from 'lucide-react';
+import { motion } from 'framer-motion';
+import { forumColors } from '@theme/forumTheme';
+import {
+  buyPosition,
+  sellPosition,
+  calculateBuyCost,
+  calculateSellRevenue,
+  calculateTax,
+  getTopic,
+} from '@services/predictionMarketService';
+import { getUserAccount, CREDIT_CONFIG } from '@services/creditSystemService';
+import { useAuth } from '@contexts/AuthContext';
+
+const MotionBox = motion(Box);
+
+const TradeModal = ({ isOpen, onClose, topic, mode = 'buy', onTradeSuccess }) => {
+  const toast = useToast();
+  const { user } = useAuth();
+
+  // 状态
+  const [selectedOption, setSelectedOption] = useState('yes');
+  const [shares, setShares] = useState(1);
+  const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false);
+
+  // 获取用户账户
+  const userAccount = user ? getUserAccount(user.id) : null;
+
+  // 重置状态
+  useEffect(() => {
+    if (isOpen) {
+      setSelectedOption('yes');
+      setShares(1);
+    }
+  }, [isOpen]);
+
+  if (!topic || !userAccount) return null;
+
+  // 获取市场数据
+  const selectedSide = topic.positions[selectedOption];
+  const otherOption = selectedOption === 'yes' ? 'no' : 'yes';
+  const otherSide = topic.positions[otherOption];
+
+  // 计算交易数据
+  let cost = 0;
+  let tax = 0;
+  let totalCost = 0;
+  let avgPrice = 0;
+
+  if (mode === 'buy') {
+    cost = calculateBuyCost(selectedSide.total_shares, otherSide.total_shares, shares);
+    tax = calculateTax(cost);
+    totalCost = cost + tax;
+    avgPrice = cost / shares;
+  } else {
+    cost = calculateSellRevenue(selectedSide.total_shares, otherSide.total_shares, shares);
+    tax = calculateTax(cost);
+    totalCost = cost - tax;
+    avgPrice = cost / shares;
+  }
+
+  // 获取用户在该方向的持仓
+  const userPosition = userAccount.active_positions?.find(
+    (p) => p.topic_id === topic.id && p.option_id === selectedOption
+  );
+
+  const maxShares = mode === 'buy' ? 10 : userPosition?.shares || 0;
+
+  // 检查是否可以交易
+  const canTrade = () => {
+    if (mode === 'buy') {
+      // 检查余额
+      if (userAccount.balance < totalCost) {
+        return { ok: false, reason: '积分不足' };
+      }
+
+      // 检查单次上限
+      if (totalCost > CREDIT_CONFIG.MAX_SINGLE_BET) {
+        return { ok: false, reason: `单次购买上限${CREDIT_CONFIG.MAX_SINGLE_BET}积分` };
+      }
+
+      return { ok: true };
+    } else {
+      // 检查持仓
+      if (!userPosition || userPosition.shares < shares) {
+        return { ok: false, reason: '持仓不足' };
+      }
+
+      return { ok: true };
+    }
+  };
+
+  const tradeCheck = canTrade();
+
+  // 处理交易
+  const handleTrade = async () => {
+    try {
+      setIsSubmitting(true);
+
+      let result;
+      if (mode === 'buy') {
+        result = buyPosition({
+          user_id: user.id,
+          user_name: user.name || user.username,
+          user_avatar: user.avatar,
+          topic_id: topic.id,
+          option_id: selectedOption,
+          shares,
+        });
+      } else {
+        result = sellPosition({
+          user_id: user.id,
+          topic_id: topic.id,
+          option_id: selectedOption,
+          shares,
+        });
+      }
+
+      toast({
+        title: mode === 'buy' ? '购买成功！' : '卖出成功！',
+        description: mode === 'buy' ? `花费${totalCost}积分` : `获得${totalCost}积分`,
+        status: 'success',
+        duration: 3000,
+      });
+
+      // 通知父组件刷新
+      if (onTradeSuccess) {
+        onTradeSuccess(result);
+      }
+
+      onClose();
+    } catch (error) {
+      console.error('交易失败:', error);
+      toast({
+        title: '交易失败',
+        description: error.message,
+        status: 'error',
+        duration: 3000,
+      });
+    } finally {
+      setIsSubmitting(false);
+    }
+  };
+
+  return (
+    <Modal isOpen={isOpen} onClose={onClose} size="lg" isCentered>
+      <ModalOverlay backdropFilter="blur(4px)" />
+      <ModalContent
+        bg={forumColors.background.card}
+        borderRadius="xl"
+        border="1px solid"
+        borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+      >
+        <ModalHeader
+          bg={forumColors.gradients.goldSubtle}
+          borderTopRadius="xl"
+          borderBottom="1px solid"
+          borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+        >
+          <HStack spacing="2">
+            <Icon
+              as={mode === 'buy' ? Zap : DollarSign}
+              boxSize="20px"
+              color={forumColors.primary[500]}
+            />
+            <Text color={forumColors.text.primary}>
+              {mode === 'buy' ? '购买席位' : '卖出席位'}
+            </Text>
+          </HStack>
+        </ModalHeader>
+        <ModalCloseButton color={forumColors.text.primary} />
+
+        <ModalBody py="6">
+          <VStack spacing="5" align="stretch">
+            {/* 话题标题 */}
+            <Box
+              bg={forumColors.background.hover}
+              borderRadius="lg"
+              p="3"
+              border="1px solid"
+              borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+            >
+              <Text fontSize="sm" fontWeight="600" color={forumColors.text.primary}>
+                {topic.title}
+              </Text>
+            </Box>
+
+            {/* 选择方向 */}
+            <Box>
+              <Text fontSize="sm" fontWeight="600" color={forumColors.text.primary} mb="3">
+                选择方向
+              </Text>
+              <RadioGroup value={selectedOption} onChange={setSelectedOption}>
+                <Stack spacing="3">
+                  {/* Yes 选项 */}
+                  <MotionBox
+                    whileHover={{ scale: 1.02 }}
+                    whileTap={{ scale: 0.98 }}
+                  >
+                    <Box
+                      bg={
+                        selectedOption === 'yes'
+                          ? 'linear-gradient(135deg, rgba(72, 187, 120, 0.2) 0%, rgba(72, 187, 120, 0.1) 100%)'
+                          : forumColors.background.hover
+                      }
+                      border="2px solid"
+                      borderColor={selectedOption === 'yes' ? 'green.400' : forumColors.border.default}
+                      borderRadius="lg"
+                      p="4"
+                      cursor="pointer"
+                      onClick={() => setSelectedOption('yes')}
+                    >
+                      <Flex justify="space-between" align="center">
+                        <HStack spacing="3">
+                          <Radio value="yes" colorScheme="green" />
+                          <VStack align="start" spacing="0">
+                            <HStack spacing="2">
+                              <Icon as={TrendingUp} boxSize="16px" color="green.500" />
+                              <Text fontWeight="600" color="green.600">
+                                看涨 / Yes
+                              </Text>
+                            </HStack>
+                            <Text fontSize="xs" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                              {topic.positions.yes.total_shares}份持仓
+                            </Text>
+                          </VStack>
+                        </HStack>
+
+                        <VStack align="end" spacing="0">
+                          <Text fontSize="xl" fontWeight="bold" color="green.600">
+                            {Math.round(topic.positions.yes.current_price)}
+                          </Text>
+                          <Text fontSize="xs" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                            积分/份
+                          </Text>
+                        </VStack>
+                      </Flex>
+                    </Box>
+                  </MotionBox>
+
+                  {/* No 选项 */}
+                  <MotionBox
+                    whileHover={{ scale: 1.02 }}
+                    whileTap={{ scale: 0.98 }}
+                  >
+                    <Box
+                      bg={
+                        selectedOption === 'no'
+                          ? 'linear-gradient(135deg, rgba(245, 101, 101, 0.2) 0%, rgba(245, 101, 101, 0.1) 100%)'
+                          : forumColors.background.hover
+                      }
+                      border="2px solid"
+                      borderColor={selectedOption === 'no' ? 'red.400' : forumColors.border.default}
+                      borderRadius="lg"
+                      p="4"
+                      cursor="pointer"
+                      onClick={() => setSelectedOption('no')}
+                    >
+                      <Flex justify="space-between" align="center">
+                        <HStack spacing="3">
+                          <Radio value="no" colorScheme="red" />
+                          <VStack align="start" spacing="0">
+                            <HStack spacing="2">
+                              <Icon as={TrendingDown} boxSize="16px" color="red.500" />
+                              <Text fontWeight="600" color="red.600">
+                                看跌 / No
+                              </Text>
+                            </HStack>
+                            <Text fontSize="xs" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                              {topic.positions.no.total_shares}份持仓
+                            </Text>
+                          </VStack>
+                        </HStack>
+
+                        <VStack align="end" spacing="0">
+                          <Text fontSize="xl" fontWeight="bold" color="red.600">
+                            {Math.round(topic.positions.no.current_price)}
+                          </Text>
+                          <Text fontSize="xs" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                            积分/份
+                          </Text>
+                        </VStack>
+                      </Flex>
+                    </Box>
+                  </MotionBox>
+                </Stack>
+              </RadioGroup>
+            </Box>
+
+            {/* 购买份额 */}
+            <Box>
+              <Flex justify="space-between" mb="3">
+                <Text fontSize="sm" fontWeight="600" color={forumColors.text.primary}>
+                  {mode === 'buy' ? '购买份额' : '卖出份额'}
+                </Text>
+                <Text fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                  {shares} 份
+                </Text>
+              </Flex>
+
+              <Slider
+                value={shares}
+                onChange={setShares}
+                min={1}
+                max={maxShares}
+                step={1}
+                focusThumbOnChange={false}
+              >
+                <SliderTrack bg={forumColors.background.hover}>
+                  <SliderFilledTrack bg={forumColors.gradients.goldPrimary} />
+                </SliderTrack>
+                <SliderThumb boxSize="6" bg={forumColors.primary[500]}>
+                  <Box as={Icon} as={DollarSign} boxSize="12px" color="white" />
+                </SliderThumb>
+              </Slider>
+
+              <HStack justify="space-between" mt="2" fontSize="xs" color={forumColors.text.tertiary}>
+                <Text>1份</Text>
+                <Text>{maxShares}份 (最大)</Text>
+              </HStack>
+
+              {mode === 'sell' && userPosition && (
+                <Text fontSize="xs" color={forumColors.text.secondary} mt="2">
+                  你的持仓：{userPosition.shares}份 · 平均成本：{Math.round(userPosition.avg_cost)}积分/份
+                </Text>
+              )}
+            </Box>
+
+            {/* 费用明细 */}
+            <Box
+              bg={forumColors.gradients.goldSubtle}
+              border="1px solid"
+              borderColor={forumColors.border.gold}
+              borderRadius="lg"
+              p="4"
+            >
+              <VStack spacing="2" align="stretch">
+                <Flex justify="space-between" fontSize="sm">
+                  <Text color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                    {mode === 'buy' ? '购买成本' : '卖出收益'}
+                  </Text>
+                  <Text fontWeight="600" color={forumColors.text.primary}>
+                    {Math.round(cost)} 积分
+                  </Text>
+                </Flex>
+
+                <Flex justify="space-between" fontSize="sm">
+                  <Text color={forumColors.text.secondary}>平均价格</Text>
+                  <Text fontWeight="600" color={forumColors.text.primary}>
+                    {Math.round(avgPrice)} 积分/份
+                  </Text>
+                </Flex>
+
+                <Flex justify="space-between" fontSize="sm">
+                  <Text color={forumColors.text.secondary}>交易税 (2%)</Text>
+                  <Text fontWeight="600" color={forumColors.text.primary}>
+                    {Math.round(tax)} 积分
+                  </Text>
+                </Flex>
+
+                <Box borderTop="1px solid" borderColor={forumColors.border.default} pt="2" mt="1">
+                  <Flex justify="space-between">
+                    <Text fontWeight="bold" color={forumColors.text.primary}>
+                      {mode === 'buy' ? '总计' : '净收益'}
+                    </Text>
+                    <HStack spacing="1">
+                      <Icon as={DollarSign} boxSize="20px" color={forumColors.primary[500]} />
+                      <Text fontSize="2xl" fontWeight="bold" color={forumColors.primary[500]}>
+                        {Math.round(totalCost)}
+                      </Text>
+                      <Text fontSize="sm" color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                        积分
+                      </Text>
+                    </HStack>
+                  </Flex>
+                </Box>
+
+                {/* 余额提示 */}
+                <Box borderTop="1px solid" borderColor={forumColors.border.default} pt="2">
+                  <Flex justify="space-between" fontSize="sm">
+                    <Text color={forumColors.text.secondary}>你的余额：</Text>
+                    <Text fontWeight="600" color={forumColors.text.primary}>
+                      {userAccount.balance} 积分
+                    </Text>
+                  </Flex>
+                  <Flex justify="space-between" fontSize="sm" mt="1">
+                    <Text color={forumColors.text.secondary}>
+                      {mode === 'buy' ? '交易后：' : '交易后：'}
+                    </Text>
+                    <Text
+                      fontWeight="600"
+                      color={
+                        mode === 'buy'
+                          ? userAccount.balance >= totalCost
+                            ? forumColors.success[500]
+                            : forumColors.error[500]
+                          : forumColors.success[500]
+                      }
+                    >
+                      {mode === 'buy'
+                        ? userAccount.balance - totalCost
+                        : userAccount.balance + totalCost}{' '}
+                      积分
+                    </Text>
+                  </Flex>
+                </Box>
+              </VStack>
+            </Box>
+
+            {/* 警告提示 */}
+            {!tradeCheck.ok && (
+              <Box
+                bg="red.50"
+                border="1px solid"
+                borderColor="red.200"
+                borderRadius="lg"
+                p="3"
+              >
+                <HStack spacing="2">
+                  <Icon as={AlertCircle} boxSize="16px" color="red.500" />
+                  <Text fontSize="sm" color="red.600" fontWeight="600">
+                    {tradeCheck.reason}
+                  </Text>
+                </HStack>
+              </Box>
+            )}
+          </VStack>
+        </ModalBody>
+
+        <ModalFooter borderTop="1px solid" borderColor={forumColors.border.default}>
+          <HStack spacing="3">
+            <Button
+              variant="ghost"
+              onClick={onClose}
+              color={forumColors.text.secondary}
+              _hover={{ bg: forumColors.background.hover }}
+            >
+              取消
+            </Button>
+            <Button
+              bg={mode === 'buy' ? forumColors.gradients.goldPrimary : 'red.500'}
+              color="white"
+              fontWeight="bold"
+              onClick={handleTrade}
+              isLoading={isSubmitting}
+              loadingText={mode === 'buy' ? '购买中...' : '卖出中...'}
+              isDisabled={!tradeCheck.ok}
+              _hover={{
+                opacity: 0.9,
+                transform: 'translateY(-2px)',
+              }}
+              _active={{ transform: 'translateY(0)' }}
+            >
+              {mode === 'buy' ? `购买 ${shares} 份` : `卖出 ${shares} 份`}
+            </Button>
+          </HStack>
+        </ModalFooter>
+      </ModalContent>
+    </Modal>
+  );
+};
+
+export default TradeModal;
diff --git a/src/views/ValueForum/index.js b/src/views/ValueForum/index.js
index 9687dba5..da42d192 100644
--- a/src/views/ValueForum/index.js
+++ b/src/views/ValueForum/index.js
@@ -22,26 +22,38 @@ import {
   useDisclosure,
   Flex,
   Badge,
+  Tabs,
+  TabList,
+  TabPanels,
+  Tab,
+  TabPanel,
+  Icon,
 } from '@chakra-ui/react';
-import { Search, PenSquare, TrendingUp, Clock, Heart } from 'lucide-react';
+import { Search, PenSquare, TrendingUp, Clock, Heart, Zap } from 'lucide-react';
 import { motion, AnimatePresence } from 'framer-motion';
 import { forumColors } from '@theme/forumTheme';
 import { getPosts, searchPosts } from '@services/elasticsearchService';
+import { getTopics } from '@services/predictionMarketService';
 import PostCard from './components/PostCard';
+import PredictionTopicCard from './components/PredictionTopicCard';
 import CreatePostModal from './components/CreatePostModal';
+import CreatePredictionModal from './components/CreatePredictionModal';
 
 const MotionBox = motion(Box);
 
 const ValueForum = () => {
   const [posts, setPosts] = useState([]);
+  const [predictionTopics, setPredictionTopics] = useState([]);
   const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true);
   const [searchKeyword, setSearchKeyword] = useState('');
   const [sortBy, setSortBy] = useState('created_at');
   const [page, setPage] = useState(1);
   const [total, setTotal] = useState(0);
   const [hasMore, setHasMore] = useState(true);
+  const [activeTab, setActiveTab] = useState(0);
 
-  const { isOpen, onOpen, onClose } = useDisclosure();
+  const { isOpen: isPostModalOpen, onOpen: onPostModalOpen, onClose: onPostModalClose } = useDisclosure();
+  const { isOpen: isPredictionModalOpen, onOpen: onPredictionModalOpen, onClose: onPredictionModalClose } = useDisclosure();
 
   // 获取帖子列表
   const fetchPosts = async (currentPage = 1, reset = false) => {
@@ -78,10 +90,27 @@ const ValueForum = () => {
     }
   };
 
+  // 获取预测话题列表
+  const fetchPredictionTopics = () => {
+    try {
+      setLoading(true);
+      const topics = getTopics({ status: 'active', sortBy });
+      setPredictionTopics(topics);
+    } catch (error) {
+      console.error('获取预测话题失败:', error);
+    } finally {
+      setLoading(false);
+    }
+  };
+
   // 初始化加载
   useEffect(() => {
-    fetchPosts(1, true);
-  }, [sortBy]);
+    if (activeTab === 0) {
+      fetchPosts(1, true);
+    } else {
+      fetchPredictionTopics();
+    }
+  }, [sortBy, activeTab]);
 
   // 搜索处理
   const handleSearch = () => {
@@ -102,6 +131,11 @@ const ValueForum = () => {
     fetchPosts(1, true);
   };
 
+  // 预测话题创建成功回调
+  const handlePredictionCreated = (newTopic) => {
+    setPredictionTopics((prev) => [newTopic, ...prev]);
+  };
+
   // 排序选项
   const sortOptions = [
     { value: 'created_at', label: '最新发布', icon: Clock },
@@ -143,21 +177,41 @@ const ValueForum = () => {
               </VStack>
 
               {/* 发帖按钮 */}
-              <Button
-                leftIcon={<PenSquare size={18} />}
-                bg={forumColors.gradients.goldPrimary}
-                color={forumColors.background.main}
-                size="lg"
-                fontWeight="bold"
-                onClick={onOpen}
-                _hover={{
-                  transform: 'translateY(-2px)',
-                  boxShadow: forumColors.shadows.goldHover,
-                }}
-                _active={{ transform: 'translateY(0)' }}
-              >
-                发布帖子
-              </Button>
+              <HStack spacing="3">
+                <Button
+                  leftIcon={<PenSquare size={18} />}
+                  bg={forumColors.background.card}
+                  color={forumColors.text.primary}
+                  size="lg"
+                  fontWeight="bold"
+                  border="1px solid"
+                  borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+                  onClick={onPostModalOpen}
+                  _hover={{
+                    transform: 'translateY(-2px)',
+                    borderColor: forumColors.border.gold,
+                  }}
+                  _active={{ transform: 'translateY(0)' }}
+                >
+                  发布帖子
+                </Button>
+
+                <Button
+                  leftIcon={<Zap size={18} />}
+                  bg={forumColors.gradients.goldPrimary}
+                  color={forumColors.background.main}
+                  size="lg"
+                  fontWeight="bold"
+                  onClick={onPredictionModalOpen}
+                  _hover={{
+                    transform: 'translateY(-2px)',
+                    boxShadow: forumColors.shadows.goldHover,
+                  }}
+                  _active={{ transform: 'translateY(0)' }}
+                >
+                  发起预测
+                </Button>
+              </HStack>
             </Flex>
 
             {/* 搜索和筛选栏 */}
@@ -224,86 +278,190 @@ const ValueForum = () => {
           </VStack>
         </MotionBox>
 
-        {/* 帖子网格 */}
-        {loading && page === 1 ? (
-          <Center py="20">
-            <VStack spacing="4">
-              <Spinner
-                size="xl"
-                thickness="4px"
-                speed="0.8s"
-                color={forumColors.primary[500]}
-              />
-              <Text color={forumColors.text.secondary}>加载中...</Text>
-            </VStack>
-          </Center>
-        ) : posts.length === 0 ? (
-          <Center py="20">
-            <VStack spacing="4">
-              <Text color={forumColors.text.secondary} fontSize="lg">
-                {searchKeyword ? '未找到相关帖子' : '暂无帖子，快来发布第一篇吧！'}
-              </Text>
-              {!searchKeyword && (
-                <Button
-                  leftIcon={<PenSquare size={18} />}
-                  bg={forumColors.gradients.goldPrimary}
-                  color={forumColors.background.main}
-                  onClick={onOpen}
-                  _hover={{ opacity: 0.9 }}
+        {/* 标签页 */}
+        <Tabs
+          index={activeTab}
+          onChange={setActiveTab}
+          variant="soft-rounded"
+          colorScheme="yellow"
+        >
+          <TabList mb="8" bg={forumColors.background.card} p="2" borderRadius="xl">
+            <Tab
+              _selected={{
+                bg: forumColors.gradients.goldPrimary,
+                color: forumColors.background.main,
+              }}
+            >
+              <HStack spacing="2">
+                <Icon as={PenSquare} boxSize="16px" />
+                <Text>社区帖子</Text>
+              </HStack>
+            </Tab>
+            <Tab
+              _selected={{
+                bg: forumColors.gradients.goldPrimary,
+                color: forumColors.background.main,
+              }}
+            >
+              <HStack spacing="2">
+                <Icon as={Zap} boxSize="16px" />
+                <Text>预测市场</Text>
+                <Badge
+                  bg="red.500"
+                  color="white"
+                  borderRadius="full"
+                  px="2"
+                  fontSize="xs"
                 >
-                  发布帖子
-                </Button>
-              )}
-            </VStack>
-          </Center>
-        ) : (
-          <>
-            <SimpleGrid columns={{ base: 1, md: 2, lg: 3, xl: 4 }} spacing="6">
-              <AnimatePresence>
-                {posts.map((post, index) => (
-                  <MotionBox
-                    key={post.id}
-                    initial={{ opacity: 0, y: 20 }}
-                    animate={{ opacity: 1, y: 0 }}
-                    exit={{ opacity: 0, y: -20 }}
-                    transition={{ duration: 0.3, delay: index * 0.05 }}
-                  >
-                    <PostCard post={post} />
-                  </MotionBox>
-                ))}
-              </AnimatePresence>
-            </SimpleGrid>
+                  NEW
+                </Badge>
+              </HStack>
+            </Tab>
+          </TabList>
 
-            {/* 加载更多按钮 */}
-            {hasMore && (
-              <Center mt="10">
-                <Button
-                  onClick={loadMore}
-                  isLoading={loading}
-                  loadingText="加载中..."
-                  bg={forumColors.background.card}
-                  color={forumColors.text.primary}
-                  border="1px solid"
-                  borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
-                  _hover={{
-                    borderColor: forumColors.border.gold,
-                    bg: forumColors.background.hover,
-                  }}
-                >
-                  加载更多
-                </Button>
-              </Center>
-            )}
-          </>
-        )}
+          <TabPanels>
+            {/* 普通帖子标签页 */}
+            <TabPanel p="0">
+              {loading && page === 1 ? (
+                <Center py="20">
+                  <VStack spacing="4">
+                    <Spinner
+                      size="xl"
+                      thickness="4px"
+                      speed="0.8s"
+                      color={forumColors.primary[500]}
+                    />
+                    <Text color={forumColors.text.secondary}>加载中...</Text>
+                  </VStack>
+                </Center>
+              ) : posts.length === 0 ? (
+                <Center py="20">
+                  <VStack spacing="4">
+                    <Text color={forumColors.text.secondary} fontSize="lg">
+                      {searchKeyword ? '未找到相关帖子' : '暂无帖子，快来发布第一篇吧！'}
+                    </Text>
+                    {!searchKeyword && (
+                      <Button
+                        leftIcon={<PenSquare size={18} />}
+                        bg={forumColors.gradients.goldPrimary}
+                        color={forumColors.background.main}
+                        onClick={onPostModalOpen}
+                        _hover={{ opacity: 0.9 }}
+                      >
+                        发布帖子
+                      </Button>
+                    )}
+                  </VStack>
+                </Center>
+              ) : (
+                <>
+                  <SimpleGrid columns={{ base: 1, md: 2, lg: 3, xl: 4 }} spacing="6">
+                    <AnimatePresence>
+                      {posts.map((post, index) => (
+                        <MotionBox
+                          key={post.id}
+                          initial={{ opacity: 0, y: 20 }}
+                          animate={{ opacity: 1, y: 0 }}
+                          exit={{ opacity: 0, y: -20 }}
+                          transition={{ duration: 0.3, delay: index * 0.05 }}
+                        >
+                          <PostCard post={post} />
+                        </MotionBox>
+                      ))}
+                    </AnimatePresence>
+                  </SimpleGrid>
+
+                  {/* 加载更多按钮 */}
+                  {hasMore && (
+                    <Center mt="10">
+                      <Button
+                        onClick={loadMore}
+                        isLoading={loading}
+                        loadingText="加载中..."
+                        bg={forumColors.background.card}
+                        color={forumColors.text.primary}
+                        border="1px solid"
+                        borderColor={forumColors.border.default}
+                        _hover={{
+                          borderColor: forumColors.border.gold,
+                          bg: forumColors.background.hover,
+                        }}
+                      >
+                        加载更多
+                      </Button>
+                    </Center>
+                  )}
+                </>
+              )}
+            </TabPanel>
+
+            {/* 预测市场标签页 */}
+            <TabPanel p="0">
+              {loading ? (
+                <Center py="20">
+                  <VStack spacing="4">
+                    <Spinner
+                      size="xl"
+                      thickness="4px"
+                      speed="0.8s"
+                      color={forumColors.primary[500]}
+                    />
+                    <Text color={forumColors.text.secondary}>加载中...</Text>
+                  </VStack>
+                </Center>
+              ) : predictionTopics.length === 0 ? (
+                <Center py="20">
+                  <VStack spacing="4">
+                    <Icon as={Zap} boxSize="48px" color={forumColors.text.tertiary} />
+                    <Text color={forumColors.text.secondary} fontSize="lg">
+                      暂无预测话题，快来发起第一个吧！
+                    </Text>
+                    <Button
+                      leftIcon={<Zap size={18} />}
+                      bg={forumColors.gradients.goldPrimary}
+                      color={forumColors.background.main}
+                      onClick={onPredictionModalOpen}
+                      _hover={{ opacity: 0.9 }}
+                    >
+                      发起预测
+                    </Button>
+                  </VStack>
+                </Center>
+              ) : (
+                <SimpleGrid columns={{ base: 1, md: 2, lg: 3 }} spacing="6">
+                  <AnimatePresence>
+                    {predictionTopics.map((topic, index) => (
+                      <MotionBox
+                        key={topic.id}
+                        initial={{ opacity: 0, y: 20 }}
+                        animate={{ opacity: 1, y: 0 }}
+                        exit={{ opacity: 0, y: -20 }}
+                        transition={{ duration: 0.3, delay: index * 0.05 }}
+                      >
+                        <PredictionTopicCard topic={topic} />
+                      </MotionBox>
+                    ))}
+                  </AnimatePresence>
+                </SimpleGrid>
+              )}
+            </TabPanel>
+          </TabPanels>
+        </Tabs>
       </Container>
 
       {/* 发帖模态框 */}
       <CreatePostModal
-        isOpen={isOpen}
-        onClose={onClose}
+        isOpen={isPostModalOpen}
+        onClose={onPostModalClose}
         onPostCreated={handlePostCreated}
       />
+
+      {/* 发起预测模态框 */}
+      <CreatePredictionModal
+        isOpen={isPredictionModalOpen}
+        onClose={onPredictionModalClose}
+        onTopicCreated={handlePredictionCreated}
+      />
     </Box>
   );
 };