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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="zh-CN">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8" />
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font-family: 'Inter', 'Noto Sans SC', sans-serif;
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}
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box-shadow: 0 10px 30px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);
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.timeline-item::before {
content: '';
position: absolute;
left: -8px;
top: 5px;
width: 16px;
height: 16px;
border-radius: 50%;
background: #667eea;
border: 3px solid white;
}
.timeline-line {
position: absolute;
left: 0;
top: 0;
bottom: 0;
width: 2px;
background: #e2e8f0;
}
#vanta-bg {
position: fixed;
top: 0;
left: 0;
width: 100%;
height: 100%;
z-index: -1;
}
.content-wrapper {
position: relative;
z-index: 1;
}
.highlight-text {
background: linear-gradient(120deg, #a78bfa 0%, #ec4899 100%);
-webkit-background-clip: text;
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background-clip: text;
}
.table-responsive {
overflow-x: auto;
}
@media (max-width: 768px) {
.card-body {
padding: 1rem;
}
.timeline-item {
padding-left: 1.5rem;
}
}
</style>
</head>
<body class="bg-gray-50">
<div id="vanta-bg"></div>
<div class="content-wrapper min-h-screen py-8 px-4 sm:px-6 lg:px-8">
<div class="max-w-6xl mx-auto">
<!-- 标题部分 -->
<div class="text-center mb-10">
<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-5xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-4">
<span class="highlight-text">蜜雪冰城</span> 行业洞察报告
</h1>
<p class="text-lg text-gray-600 max-w-3xl mx-auto">
从"低价茶饮"到"全球化平价饮品基础设施"的蜕变之路
</p>
</div>
<!-- 概念事件时间轴 -->
<div class="card bg-white rounded-xl card-shadow mb-8">
<div class="card-body p-6">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-6 flex items-center">
<i class="ti ti-calendar-event mr-3 text-purple-600"></i>
概念事件时间轴
</h2>
<div class="relative pl-8">
<div class="timeline-line"></div>
<div class="space-y-6">
<div class="timeline-item relative">
<div class="bg-purple-50 rounded-lg p-4 border-l-4 border-purple-500">
<h3 class="font-semibold text-purple-800">2024年12月</h3>
<p class="text-gray-700">申请注册"雪王AI智慧"商标成立雪王爱智慧科技郑州有限公司布局AI与供应链数字化。</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item relative">
<div class="bg-blue-50 rounded-lg p-4 border-l-4 border-blue-500">
<h3 class="font-semibold text-blue-800">2025年1月</h3>
<p class="text-gray-700">更新招股书披露全球门店超4.6万家2024年饮品出杯量90亿杯终端零售额583亿元。</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item relative">
<div class="bg-green-50 rounded-lg p-4 border-l-4 border-green-500">
<h3 class="font-semibold text-green-800">2025年2月</h3>
<p class="text-gray-700">通过港交所聆讯发行价202.5港元暗盘大涨30%,认购倍数<strong class="text-green-600">3449.8倍</strong>(创港股纪录)。</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item relative">
<div class="bg-yellow-50 rounded-lg p-4 border-l-4 border-yellow-500">
<h3 class="font-semibold text-yellow-800">2025年3月3日</h3>
<p class="text-gray-700">正式挂牌上市开盘涨40%,市值破千亿港元;高瓴、美团龙珠等基石投资者加持。</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item relative">
<div class="bg-pink-50 rounded-lg p-4 border-l-4 border-pink-500">
<h3 class="font-semibold text-pink-800">2025年3月后</h3>
<p class="text-gray-700">多家券商中信证券、东吴、天风发布深度报告一致看好下沉市场与东南亚扩张目标价426-565港元。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 核心观点摘要 -->
<div class="card bg-gradient-to-r from-purple-600 to-indigo-600 rounded-xl card-shadow mb-8 text-white">
<div class="card-body p-6">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 flex items-center">
<i class="ti ti-bulb mr-3"></i>
核心观点摘要
</h2>
<blockquote class="border-l-4 border-white pl-4 italic">
蜜雪冰城已<strong class="text-yellow-300">从"低价茶饮"升级为"全球化平价饮品基础设施"</strong>,凭借<strong class="text-yellow-300">极致供应链+雪王IP+加盟飞轮</strong>,在下沉市场与东南亚形成<strong class="text-yellow-300">垄断性优势</strong>。当前处于<strong class="text-yellow-300">基本面加速兑现期</strong>未来3年门店扩张国内乡镇+海外)和幸运咖放量是核心驱动力,但需警惕<strong class="text-yellow-300">海外本地化不及预期</strong><strong class="text-yellow-300">食品安全舆情</strong>风险。
</blockquote>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 核心驱动力 -->
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6 mb-8">
<div class="card bg-white rounded-xl card-shadow">
<div class="card-body p-6">
<div class="text-purple-600 mb-4">
<i class="ti ti-building-factory text-4xl"></i>
</div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-3">供应链降维打击</h3>
<ul class="space-y-2 text-gray-600">
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="ti ti-check text-green-500 mr-2 mt-1"></i>
<span>自建5大基地年产能165万吨</span>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="ti ti-check text-green-500 mr-2 mt-1"></i>
<span>27个国内仓+7个海外仓</span>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="ti ti-check text-green-500 mr-2 mt-1"></i>
<span>核心原料100%自产</span>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="ti ti-check text-green-500 mr-2 mt-1"></i>
<span>采购成本较行业低<strong>10-20%</strong></span>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div class="card bg-white rounded-xl card-shadow">
<div class="card-body p-6">
<div class="text-blue-600 mb-4">
<i class="ti ti-tag text-4xl"></i>
</div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-3">价格带真空</h3>
<ul class="space-y-2 text-gray-600">
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="ti ti-check text-green-500 mr-2 mt-1"></i>
<span>2-8元区间无直接竞品</span>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="ti ti-check text-green-500 mr-2 mt-1"></i>
<span>2023年市占率<strong>57%</strong></span>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="ti ti-check text-green-500 mr-2 mt-1"></i>
<span>平价茶饮市场领先</span>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="ti ti-check text-green-500 mr-2 mt-1"></i>
<span>形成"低价-规模-成本"正循环</span>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div class="card bg-white rounded-xl card-shadow">
<div class="card-body p-6">
<div class="text-green-600 mb-4">
<i class="ti ti-store text-4xl"></i>
</div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-3">加盟模型极致</h3>
<ul class="space-y-2 text-gray-600">
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="ti ti-check text-green-500 mr-2 mt-1"></i>
<span>单店投资21-25万行业最低</span>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="ti ti-check text-green-500 mr-2 mt-1"></i>
<span>回本周期11-13个月</span>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="ti ti-check text-green-500 mr-2 mt-1"></i>
<span>老加盟商带店率<strong>2.5家</strong></span>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="ti ti-check text-green-500 mr-2 mt-1"></i>
<span>点位申请单日暴增<strong>8000个</strong></span>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 关键催化剂 -->
<div class="card bg-white rounded-xl card-shadow mb-8">
<div class="card-body p-6">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-6 flex items-center">
<i class="ti ti-rocket mr-3 text-orange-600"></i>
关键催化剂与未来发展路径
</h2>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
<div>
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-4 bg-orange-50 p-3 rounded-lg">近期催化剂3-6个月</h3>
<ol class="space-y-3">
<li class="flex">
<span class="bg-orange-500 text-white rounded-full w-6 h-6 flex items-center justify-center mr-3 flex-shrink-0">1</span>
<div>
<h4 class="font-medium text-gray-800">2025Q2财报</h4>
<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">验证乡镇店均增长1-2月已转正+4%及幸运咖爬坡目标新增1000家</p>
</div>
</li>
<li class="flex">
<span class="bg-orange-500 text-white rounded-full w-6 h-6 flex items-center justify-center mr-3 flex-shrink-0">2</span>
<div>
<h4 class="font-medium text-gray-800">东南亚供应链中心落地</h4>
<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">海南基地投产降低印尼物流成本30%(当前冷链依赖中国)</p>
</div>
</li>
<li class="flex">
<span class="bg-orange-500 text-white rounded-full w-6 h-6 flex items-center justify-center mr-3 flex-shrink-0">3</span>
<div>
<h4 class="font-medium text-gray-800">雪王IP衍生品</h4>
<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">动漫公司成立预计2025年推出联名周边如与《蛋仔派对》合作</p>
</div>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
<div>
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-4 bg-blue-50 p-3 rounded-lg">长期路径2025-2028</h3>
<ol class="space-y-3">
<li class="flex">
<span class="bg-blue-500 text-white rounded-full w-6 h-6 flex items-center justify-center mr-3 flex-shrink-0">1</span>
<div>
<h4 class="font-medium text-gray-800">国内扩张</h4>
<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">从4.2万家→<strong>5.5万家</strong>(乡镇+景区加密单店GMV年增2-3%</p>
</div>
</li>
<li class="flex">
<span class="bg-blue-500 text-white rounded-full w-6 h-6 flex items-center justify-center mr-3 flex-shrink-0">2</span>
<div>
<h4 class="font-medium text-gray-800">海外布局</h4>
<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">从5000家→<strong>1.5万家</strong>东南亚为主本地化采购比例提升至50%</p>
</div>
</li>
<li class="flex">
<span class="bg-blue-500 text-white rounded-full w-6 h-6 flex items-center justify-center mr-3 flex-shrink-0">3</span>
<div>
<h4 class="font-medium text-gray-800">第二曲线</h4>
<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">幸运咖门店4000家→<strong>1万家</strong>,复用加盟商网络,抢占下沉咖啡市场</p>
</div>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 产业链与核心公司对比 -->
<div class="card bg-white rounded-xl card-shadow mb-8">
<div class="card-body p-6">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-6 flex items-center">
<i class="ti ti-network mr-3 text-teal-600"></i>
产业链与核心公司深度剖析
</h2>
<div class="mb-6">
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-3">产业链图谱</h3>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-4">
<div class="bg-teal-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
<h4 class="font-medium text-teal-800 mb-2">上游</h4>
<p class="text-gray-600">柠檬(四川安岳)、奶粉(新西兰恒天然)、设备(东贝集团制冰机)</p>
</div>
<div class="bg-purple-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
<h4 class="font-medium text-purple-800 mb-2">中游</h4>
<p class="text-gray-600">蜜雪自建基地(河南/海南→27个仓→加盟商</p>
</div>
<div class="bg-pink-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
<h4 class="font-medium text-pink-800 mb-2">下游</h4>
<p class="text-gray-600">乡镇门店70%覆盖率)、海外加盟商(印尼华人为主)</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-3">核心玩家对比</h3>
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
<table class="min-w-full bg-white border border-gray-200">
<thead>
<tr class="bg-gray-50">
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">公司</th>
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">门店数</th>
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">价格带</th>
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">核心优势</th>
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">风险点</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody class="divide-y divide-gray-200">
<tr>
<td class="py-4 px-4 font-medium text-gray-900">蜜雪冰城</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">4.6万</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">2-8元</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">供应链垄断+IP流量</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">海外盈利模型待验证</td>
</tr>
<tr class="bg-gray-50">
<td class="py-4 px-4 font-medium text-gray-900">古茗</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">1万</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">10-18元</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">鲜果茶差异化+冷链</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">北方扩张供应链短板</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="py-4 px-4 font-medium text-gray-900">茶百道</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">8000</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">10-15元</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">外卖占比高50%+</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">价格战下毛利承压</td>
</tr>
<tr class="bg-gray-50">
<td class="py-4 px-4 font-medium text-gray-900">瑞幸</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">2万</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">15-20元</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">数字化+高线城市密度</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">下沉市场供应链劣势</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 潜在风险与挑战 -->
<div class="card bg-white rounded-xl card-shadow mb-8">
<div class="card-body p-6">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-6 flex items-center">
<i class="ti ti-alert-triangle mr-3 text-red-600"></i>
潜在风险与挑战
</h2>
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
<table class="min-w-full bg-white border border-gray-200">
<thead>
<tr class="bg-gray-50">
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">风险类型</th>
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">具体表现</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody class="divide-y divide-gray-200">
<tr>
<td class="py-4 px-4 font-medium text-gray-900 bg-red-50">技术风险</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">AI订货系统误判需求如2024年印尼缺货4个月需优化算法。</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="py-4 px-4 font-medium text-gray-900 bg-yellow-50">商业化风险</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">海外定价过高新加坡2倍国内本土化SKU不足如泰国减糖产品延迟</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="py-4 px-4 font-medium text-gray-900 bg-blue-50">政策风险</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">东南亚食品安全法规趋严印尼2025年新规要求本地原料占比≥40%)。</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="py-4 px-4 font-medium text-gray-900 bg-purple-50">信息矛盾</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">路演预测2025年新增7000家但专家交流称乡镇实际可开仅<strong>5000-6000家</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 综合结论与投资启示 -->
<div class="card bg-gradient-to-r from-indigo-500 to-purple-600 rounded-xl card-shadow mb-8 text-white">
<div class="card-body p-6">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 flex items-center">
<i class="ti ti-chart-line mr-3"></i>
综合结论与投资启示
</h2>
<div class="mb-6">
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3 text-yellow-300">阶段判断</h3>
<p class="text-lg">蜜雪已从<strong class="text-yellow-300">"主题炒作"</strong>IPO高认购进入<strong class="text-yellow-300">"基本面驱动"</strong>2025年利润增速24%),但估值未充分反映海外风险。</p>
</div>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 mb-6">
<div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3 text-yellow-300">投资方向</h3>
<ul class="space-y-2">
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="ti ti-star text-yellow-300 mr-2 mt-1"></i>
<span><strong class="text-yellow-300">最确定</strong>国内乡镇加密1万家空间+幸运咖下沉5000家增量</span>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="ti ti-rocket text-yellow-300 mr-2 mt-1"></i>
<span><strong class="text-yellow-300">高弹性</strong>:东南亚供应链中心落地后,单店盈利修复带来的估值重估</span>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3 text-yellow-300">跟踪指标</h3>
<ol class="space-y-2">
<li class="flex">
<span class="bg-yellow-500 text-white rounded-full w-6 h-6 flex items-center justify-center mr-3 flex-shrink-0">1</span>
<span><strong>乡镇店均日销</strong>需维持5000元以上</span>
</li>
<li class="flex">
<span class="bg-yellow-500 text-white rounded-full w-6 h-6 flex items-center justify-center mr-3 flex-shrink-0">2</span>
<span><strong>海外本地化率</strong>2025年东南亚本地采购占比能否达50%</span>
</li>
<li class="flex">
<span class="bg-yellow-500 text-white rounded-full w-6 h-6 flex items-center justify-center mr-3 flex-shrink-0">3</span>
<span><strong>幸运咖关店率</strong>需低于3%</span>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
</div>
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<p class="text-xl font-semibold text-center italic">
"蜜雪冰城是<strong class="text-yellow-300">用供应链赚全世界的奶茶钱</strong>的稀缺标的,短期看乡镇,长期看出海,但需紧盯<strong class="text-yellow-300">海外单店模型</strong>这一阿喀琉斯之踵。"
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<!-- 关联股票数据 -->
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关联股票数据
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<table class="min-w-full bg-white border border-gray-200">
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<tr class="bg-gray-50">
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">股票代码</th>
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">关联公司</th>
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">关系类型</th>
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">关系描述</th>
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">资料来源</th>
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<td class="py-4 px-4 font-medium text-gray-900">蜜雪冰城(250225)</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">好想你</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">产业链-投资关系</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">公司通过深圳龙珠股权投资基金间接投资蜜雪冰城</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">互动</td>
</tr>
<tr class="bg-gray-50">
<td class="py-4 px-4 font-medium text-gray-900">蜜雪冰城(250225)</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">东贝集团</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">产业链-供应商</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">子公司东贝制冷是蜜雪冰城的主要供应商,主要供货产品有冰淇淋机、制冰机等</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">互动</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="py-4 px-4 font-medium text-gray-900">蜜雪冰城(250225)</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">一致魔芋</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">产业链-供应链地位</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">在蜜雪冰城的供应链中占据重要地位</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">公告</td>
</tr>
<tr class="bg-gray-50">
<td class="py-4 px-4 font-medium text-gray-900">蜜雪冰城(250225)</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">冰山冷热</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">产业链-客户关系</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">联营公司生产的超市陈列柜主要客户包括蜜雪冰城</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">互动</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="py-4 px-4 font-medium text-gray-900">蜜雪冰城(250225)</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">佳禾食品</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">产业链-客户关系</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">粉末油脂下游客户包括蜜雪冰城</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">公告</td>
</tr>
<tr class="bg-gray-50">
<td class="py-4 px-4 font-medium text-gray-900">蜜雪冰城(250225)</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">恒达新材、天娱数科、丝路视觉、超图软件、双汇发展、天地在线、汇通能源、用友网络、恰恰食品、紫江企业、道恩股份、家联科技、熊猫乳品、五芳斋、供销大集、南王科技、音飞储存</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">品牌合作</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">多品牌战略合作关系</td>
<td class="py-4 px-4 text-gray-700">公告/互动</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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