571 lines
21 KiB
HTML
571 lines
21 KiB
HTML
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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN">
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<head>
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<meta charset="utf-8" />
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1, shrink-to-fit=no">
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<link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="76x76" href="../../static/assets/img/apple-icon.png">
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<link rel="icon" type="image/png" href="../../static/assets/img/favicon.png">
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<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css?family=Inter:300,400,500,600,700,800" rel="stylesheet" />
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<!-- Nucleo Icons -->
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<link href="../../static/assets/css/nucleo-icons.css" rel="stylesheet" />
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<link href="../../static/assets/css/nucleo-svg.css" rel="stylesheet" />
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<!-- Font Awesome Icons -->
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<script src="https://kit.fontawesome.com/1d2b6c4f81.js" crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
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<!-- CSS Files -->
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<link id="pagestyle" href="../../static/assets/css/soft-design-system-pro.css?v=1.2.0" rel="stylesheet" />
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<script src="../../static/assets/js/core/popper.min.js" type="text/javascript"></script>
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<script src="../../static/assets/js/core/bootstrap.min.js" type="text/javascript"></script>
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<script src="../../static/assets/js/plugins/perfect-scrollbar.min.js"></script>
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<script src="../../static/assets/js/plugins/typedjs.js"></script>
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<script src="../../static/assets/js/plugins/parallax.min.js"></script>
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<script src="../../static/assets/js/plugins/smooth-scroll.min.js"></script>
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<script src="../../static/assets/js/plugins/nouislider.min.js" type="text/javascript"></script>
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<script src="../../static/assets/js/plugins/glidejs.min.js" type="text/javascript"></script>
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<script src="../../static/assets/js/plugins/anime.min.js" type="text/javascript"></script>
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<script src="../../static/assets/js/plugins/chartjs.min.js"></script>
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<script src="../../static/assets/js/soft-design-system-pro.min.js?v=1.2.0" type="text/javascript"></script>
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<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/tsparticles@3/tsparticles.bundle.min.js"></script>
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<script src="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/three.js/r134/three.min.js"></script>
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<script src="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/vanta/0.5.24/vanta.waves.min.js"></script>
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<script src="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/rellax/1.12.1/rellax.min.js"></script>
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@5" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@tailwindcss/browser@4"></script>
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@5/themes.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@tailwindcss/browser@4"></script>
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/tailwindcss@2.2.19/dist/tailwind.min.css" rel="stylesheet">
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<style>
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@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Noto+Sans+SC:wght@300;400;500;700&display=swap');
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body {
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font-family: 'Noto Sans SC', 'Inter', sans-serif;
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background-color: #f8f9fa;
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color: #333;
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}
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.particle-bg {
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position: fixed;
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top: 0;
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left: 0;
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width: 100%;
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height: 100%;
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z-index: -1;
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}
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.section-card {
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background: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.9);
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backdrop-filter: blur(10px);
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border-radius: 16px;
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box-shadow: 0 8px 32px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);
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margin-bottom: 2rem;
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overflow: hidden;
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transition: transform 0.3s ease, box-shadow 0.3s ease;
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}
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.section-card:hover {
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transform: translateY(-5px);
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box-shadow: 0 12px 40px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.15);
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}
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.timeline-item {
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position: relative;
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padding-left: 30px;
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margin-bottom: 20px;
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}
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.timeline-item::before {
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content: '';
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position: absolute;
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left: 0;
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top: 5px;
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width: 12px;
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height: 12px;
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border-radius: 50%;
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background: #3b82f6;
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}
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.timeline-item::after {
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content: '';
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position: absolute;
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left: 5px;
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top: 20px;
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width: 2px;
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height: calc(100% + 10px);
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background: #e5e7eb;
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}
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.timeline-item:last-child::after {
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display: none;
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}
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.highlight {
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background: linear-gradient(120deg, #a5b4fc 0%, #c7d2fe 100%);
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padding: 2px 6px;
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border-radius: 4px;
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font-weight: 600;
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}
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.price-trend {
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height: 80px;
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background: linear-gradient(90deg, #dbeafe, #bfdbfe);
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border-radius: 8px;
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position: relative;
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overflow: hidden;
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}
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.price-line {
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position: absolute;
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bottom: 0;
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height: 2px;
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background: #3b82f6;
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width: 100%;
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}
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.price-point {
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position: absolute;
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width: 8px;
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height: 8px;
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background: #3b82f6;
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border-radius: 50%;
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transform: translate(-50%, -50%);
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}
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.risk-badge {
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display: inline-block;
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padding: 4px 12px;
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border-radius: 20px;
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font-size: 0.8rem;
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font-weight: 500;
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margin-right: 8px;
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margin-bottom: 8px;
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}
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.risk-high {
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background: #fee2e2;
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color: #b91c1c;
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}
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.risk-medium {
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background: #fef3c7;
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color: #b45309;
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}
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.risk-low {
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background: #dcfce7;
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color: #166534;
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}
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.stock-table {
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width: 100%;
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border-collapse: separate;
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border-spacing: 0;
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}
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.stock-table th {
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background: #f3f4f6;
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padding: 12px;
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text-align: left;
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font-weight: 600;
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color: #4b5563;
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border-bottom: 2px solid #e5e7eb;
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}
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.stock-table td {
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padding: 16px 12px;
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border-bottom: 1px solid #f3f4f6;
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}
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.stock-table tr:hover {
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background: #f9fafb;
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}
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.stock-name {
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font-weight: 600;
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color: #1f2937;
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}
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.industry-tag {
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display: inline-block;
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padding: 2px 8px;
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background: #e0e7ff;
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color: #4338ca;
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border-radius: 4px;
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font-size: 0.75rem;
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}
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.chain-diagram {
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display: flex;
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align-items: center;
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justify-content: space-between;
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padding: 20px;
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background: #f8fafc;
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border-radius: 8px;
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margin: 20px 0;
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}
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.chain-item {
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text-align: center;
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padding: 10px;
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background: white;
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border-radius: 8px;
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box-shadow: 0 2px 8px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.05);
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flex: 1;
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margin: 0 5px;
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}
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.chain-arrow {
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color: #9ca3af;
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font-size: 1.5rem;
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}
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@media (max-width: 768px) {
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.chain-diagram {
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flex-direction: column;
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}
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.chain-arrow {
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transform: rotate(90deg);
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margin: 10px 0;
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}
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body>
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<div id="particle-bg" class="particle-bg"></div>
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<div class="container mx-auto px-4 py-8 max-w-6xl">
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<!-- 标题区域 -->
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<div class="text-center mb-10">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-5xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-4">正丙醇行业深度分析</h1>
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<p class="text-xl text-gray-600 max-w-3xl mx-auto">供需错配驱动的涨价周期与固态电池新需求的双重机遇</p>
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<div class="mt-6 flex justify-center">
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<span class="bg-blue-100 text-blue-800 px-4 py-2 rounded-full text-sm font-medium">化工新材料</span>
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<span class="bg-green-100 text-green-800 px-4 py-2 rounded-full text-sm font-medium ml-2">涨价概念</span>
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<span class="bg-purple-100 text-purple-800 px-4 py-2 rounded-full text-sm font-medium ml-2">固态电池</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 价格趋势图 -->
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<div class="section-card p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-4">价格走势</h2>
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<div class="price-trend mb-4">
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<div class="price-line"></div>
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<div class="price-point" style="left: 0%; bottom: 30%;"></div>
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<div class="price-point" style="left: 33%; bottom: 40%;"></div>
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<div class="price-point" style="left: 66%; bottom: 20%;"></div>
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<div class="price-point" style="left: 100%; bottom: 60%;"></div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex justify-between text-sm text-gray-600">
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<div>2024年6月<br><span class="font-bold">7400元/吨</span></div>
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<div>2024年10月<br><span class="font-bold">9000元/吨</span></div>
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<div>2024年11月<br><span class="font-bold">13000元/吨</span></div>
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<div>2025年3月<br><span class="font-bold">7500元/吨</span></div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 时间轴 -->
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<div class="section-card p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-6">事件时间轴</h2>
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<div class="timeline">
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-800">2024年6月</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600">正丙醇价格从<span class="highlight">7400元/吨</span>启动上涨</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-800">2024年10月</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600">价格突破<span class="highlight">9000元/吨</span></p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-800">2024年11月15日</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600">价格跳涨至<span class="highlight">13000元/吨</span>（南京诺奥报价），创<span class="highlight">三年新高</span></p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-800">2024年11月</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600">下游醋酸正丙酯新增15万吨产能投产（安徽瑞柏、山东金沂蒙），对应正丙醇需求<span class="highlight">+9万吨/年</span></p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-800">2024年12月</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600">天风、华西等机构密集路演，将涨价归因于<span class="highlight">"固态电池电解液新需求"</span></p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-800">2025年3月</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600">三维化学年报确认正丙醇贡献<span class="highlight">4000万元额外利润</span>，但提示价格已回落至<span class="highlight">7500元/吨</span></p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心观点 -->
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<div class="section-card p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-4">核心观点摘要</h2>
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<div class="bg-blue-50 border-l-4 border-blue-500 p-4 mb-4">
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<p class="text-gray-700"><span class="font-semibold">阶段判断：</span>正丙醇处于<span class="highlight">"供需错配驱动的涨价周期中段"</span>，短期价格高位震荡，长期需验证固态电池需求落地。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-green-50 border-l-4 border-green-500 p-4 mb-4">
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<p class="text-gray-700"><span class="font-semibold">核心驱动力：</span><span class="highlight">供给零增长</span>（2021年后无新增产能）与<span class="highlight">需求双轮驱动</span>（传统醋酸正丙酯扩产+新兴电解液应用）。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-purple-50 border-l-4 border-purple-500 p-4">
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<p class="text-gray-700"><span class="font-semibold">潜力空间：</span>若固态电池电解液渗透率提升至30%，正丙醇需求增量可达<span class="highlight">20万吨</span>（当前国内产能27万吨）。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 产业链分析 -->
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<div class="section-card p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-4">产业链分析</h2>
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<div class="chain-diagram">
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<div class="chain-item">
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<div class="font-semibold text-gray-800">上游</div>
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<div class="text-sm text-gray-600">乙烯</div>
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<div class="text-xs text-gray-500">(MTO/石化路线)</div>
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</div>
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<div class="chain-arrow">→</div>
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<div class="chain-item">
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<div class="font-semibold text-gray-800">中游</div>
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<div class="text-sm text-gray-600">正丙醇</div>
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<div class="text-xs text-gray-500">(国内产能27万吨)</div>
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</div>
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<div class="chain-arrow">→</div>
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<div class="chain-item">
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<div class="font-semibold text-gray-800">下游</div>
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<div class="text-sm text-gray-600">醋酸正丙酯</div>
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<div class="text-xs text-gray-500">(2024-2025新增40万吨)</div>
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</div>
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<div class="chain-arrow">→</div>
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<div class="chain-item">
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<div class="font-semibold text-gray-800">终端</div>
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<div class="text-sm text-gray-600">油墨/电解液</div>
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<div class="text-xs text-gray-500">(固态电池新需求)</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-gray-800 mt-6 mb-4">核心玩家对比</h3>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="stock-table w-full">
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<thead>
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<tr>
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<th>公司</th>
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<th>产能</th>
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<th>弹性测算</th>
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<th>风险点</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<td class="stock-name">三维化学</td>
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<td>10万吨</td>
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<td>涨价1000元→<span class="highlight">8500万利润</span></td>
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<td>工程业务占比高，正丙醇利润占比<span class="text-red-500"><30%</span></td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="stock-name">鲁西化工</td>
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<td>8万吨</td>
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<td>2025年二期投产<span class="highlight">+8万吨</span></td>
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<td>MTO成本高，<span class="text-red-500">乙烯自给率50%</span></td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="stock-name">巨化股份</td>
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<td>5万吨</td>
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<td>制冷剂主业占比<span class="text-red-500">>80%</span></td>
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<td>正丙醇弹性有限</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 风险分析 -->
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<div class="section-card p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-4">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-4">
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<div class="bg-white p-4 rounded-lg shadow-sm">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-2">技术风险</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">固态电池电解液技术路线未定（硫化物/氧化物），正丙醇可能被替代。</p>
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<span class="risk-badge risk-high">高风险</span>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-white p-4 rounded-lg shadow-sm">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-2">商业化风险</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">醋酸正丙酯价格9010元/吨（较年初+34%），若正丙醇涨至15000元/吨，下游或转向醋酸乙酯。</p>
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<span class="risk-badge risk-medium">中风险</span>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-white p-4 rounded-lg shadow-sm">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-2">政策风险</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">美国进口正丙醇反倾销税257%若取消，国内价格或腰斩。</p>
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<span class="risk-badge risk-high">高风险</span>
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</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-white p-4 rounded-lg shadow-sm">
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-2">信息矛盾</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">路演称"下游醋酸正丙酯开工率仅42%"，与研报"需求旺盛"表述冲突。</p>
|
||
<span class="risk-badge risk-medium">中风险</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 投资建议 -->
|
||
<div class="section-card p-6 mb-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-4">投资启示</h2>
|
||
<div class="bg-gradient-to-r from-blue-50 to-indigo-50 p-6 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-3">阶段判断</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700 mb-4">正丙醇处于<span class="highlight">"主题炒作向基本面过渡"</span>阶段，短期看库存周期，长期看固态电池需求。</p>
|
||
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-3">投资价值</h3>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-4 mb-4">
|
||
<div class="bg-white p-4 rounded-lg shadow-sm">
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-2">最纯标的</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-600"><span class="highlight">三维化学</span>（正丙醇利润占比最高，无新增产能竞争）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-white p-4 rounded-lg shadow-sm">
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-2">弹性标的</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-600"><span class="highlight">鲁西化工</span>（2025年二期投产，成本劣势可能被规模抵消）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-3">关键跟踪指标</h3>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc pl-5 text-gray-700 space-y-2">
|
||
<li><span class="font-semibold">库存</span>：若回升至<span class="highlight">1.5万吨以上</span>，涨价逻辑弱化</li>
|
||
<li><span class="font-semibold">固态电池订单</span>：宁德时代2025年电解液招标是否明确正丙醇用量</li>
|
||
<li><span class="font-semibold">进口政策</span>：商务部是否调整美国正丙醇反倾销税</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 相关股票表格 -->
|
||
<div class="section-card p-6">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-4">相关股票</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="stock-table w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>行业</th>
|
||
<th>项目/产能</th>
|
||
<th>产业链</th>
|
||
<th>投资逻辑</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="stock-name">三维化学</td>
|
||
<td><span class="industry-tag">化工</span></td>
|
||
<td>收购诺奥差</td>
|
||
<td>丙醇涨价受益</td>
|
||
<td>化工产品受益于丙醇涨价，收购诺奥差获得利润，近期丙醇涨价20-30%</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="stock-name">恒兴新材</td>
|
||
<td><span class="industry-tag">化工材料</span></td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>原材料供应</td>
|
||
<td>生产所需原材料包括丙酸、异丁醛等丙醇相关化学品</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="stock-name">巨化股份</td>
|
||
<td><span class="industry-tag">化工</span></td>
|
||
<td>10万吨/年正丙醇技改扩能</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>自筹资金实施正丙醇技改扩能项目</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="stock-name">东华能源</td>
|
||
<td><span class="industry-tag">化工</span></td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>生产与储存</td>
|
||
<td>经营范围包含正丙醇生产及储存</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="stock-name">辉丰股份</td>
|
||
<td><span class="industry-tag">化工</span></td>
|
||
<td>江苏辉丰石化二期</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>子公司二期项目包含正丙醇生产</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="stock-name">鲁西化工</td>
|
||
<td><span class="industry-tag">化工</span></td>
|
||
<td>8万吨丙醇</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>现有丙醇产能8万吨，建设乙烯下游二期项目</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="stock-name">综艺股份</td>
|
||
<td><span class="industry-tag">化工</span></td>
|
||
<td>参股南京某正丙醇企业</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>参股12.28%正丙醇生产企业</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
// 初始化粒子背景
|
||
document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function() {
|
||
if (typeof tsParticles !== 'undefined') {
|
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tsParticles.load("particle-bg", {
|
||
fpsLimit: 60,
|
||
particles: {
|
||
color: {
|
||
value: "#3b82f6"
|
||
},
|
||
links: {
|
||
color: "#93c5fd",
|
||
distance: 150,
|
||
enable: true,
|
||
opacity: 0.3,
|
||
width: 1
|
||
},
|
||
move: {
|
||
direction: "none",
|
||
enable: true,
|
||
outModes: {
|
||
default: "bounce"
|
||
},
|
||
random: false,
|
||
speed: 1,
|
||
straight: false
|
||
},
|
||
number: {
|
||
density: {
|
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enable: true,
|
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area: 800
|
||
},
|
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value: 60
|
||
},
|
||
opacity: {
|
||
value: 0.3
|
||
},
|
||
shape: {
|
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type: "circle"
|
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},
|
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size: {
|
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value: { min: 1, max: 3 }
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
detectRetina: true
|
||
});
|
||
}
|
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|
||
// 初始化波浪效果（如果粒子效果不可用）
|
||
if (typeof VANTA !== 'undefined' && VANTA.WAVES) {
|
||
VANTA.WAVES({
|
||
el: "#particle-bg",
|
||
mouseControls: true,
|
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touchControls: true,
|
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gyroControls: false,
|
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minHeight: 200.00,
|
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minWidth: 200.00,
|
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scale: 1.00,
|
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scaleMobile: 1.00,
|
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color: 0x1e40af,
|
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shininess: 30.00,
|
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waveHeight: 10.00,
|
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waveSpeed: 0.75,
|
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zoom: 0.85
|
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});
|
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}
|
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});
|
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</script>
|
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</body>
|
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</html>
|
||
``` |