695 lines
34 KiB
HTML
695 lines
34 KiB
HTML
|
||
<!DOCTYPE html>
|
||
<html lang="zh-CN">
|
||
<head>
|
||
<meta charset="utf-8" />
|
||
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1, shrink-to-fit=no">
|
||
<link rel="apple-touch-icon" sizes="76x76" href="../../static/assets/img/apple-icon.png">
|
||
<link rel="icon" type="image/png" href="../../static/assets/img/favicon.png">
|
||
<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css?family=Inter:300,400,500,600,700,800" rel="stylesheet" />
|
||
<!-- Nucleo Icons -->
|
||
<link href="../../static/assets/css/nucleo-icons.css" rel="stylesheet" />
|
||
<link href="../../static/assets/css/nucleo-svg.css" rel="stylesheet" />
|
||
<!-- Font Awesome Icons -->
|
||
<script src="https://kit.fontawesome.com/1d2b6c4f81.js" crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
|
||
<!-- CSS Files -->
|
||
<link id="pagestyle" href="../../static/assets/css/soft-design-system-pro.css?v=1.2.0" rel="stylesheet" />
|
||
<script src="../../static/assets/js/core/popper.min.js" type="text/javascript"></script>
|
||
<script src="../../static/assets/js/core/bootstrap.min.js" type="text/javascript"></script>
|
||
<script src="../../static/assets/js/plugins/perfect-scrollbar.min.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="../../static/assets/js/plugins/typedjs.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="../../static/assets/js/plugins/parallax.min.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="../../static/assets/js/plugins/smooth-scroll.min.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="../../static/assets/js/plugins/nouislider.min.js" type="text/javascript"></script>
|
||
<script src="../../static/assets/js/plugins/glidejs.min.js" type="text/javascript"></script>
|
||
<script src="../../static/assets/js/plugins/anime.min.js" type="text/javascript"></script>
|
||
<script src="../../static/assets/js/plugins/chartjs.min.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="../../static/assets/js/soft-design-system-pro.min.js?v=1.2.0" type="text/javascript"></script>
|
||
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/tsparticles@3/tsparticles.bundle.min.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/three.js/r134/three.min.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/vanta/0.5.24/vanta.waves.min.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/rellax/1.12.1/rellax.min.js"></script>
|
||
<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@5" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
|
||
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@tailwindcss/browser@4"></script>
|
||
<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@5/themes.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
|
||
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@tailwindcss/browser@4"></script>
|
||
<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/tailwindcss@2.2.19/dist/tailwind.min.css" rel="stylesheet">
|
||
<style>
|
||
.copper-gradient {
|
||
background: linear-gradient(135deg, #b87333 0%, #cd7f32 50%, #b87333 100%);
|
||
}
|
||
.timeline-item {
|
||
position: relative;
|
||
padding-left: 30px;
|
||
}
|
||
.timeline-item:before {
|
||
content: "";
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
left: 0;
|
||
top: 8px;
|
||
width: 12px;
|
||
height: 12px;
|
||
border-radius: 50%;
|
||
background-color: #b87333;
|
||
}
|
||
.timeline-item:after {
|
||
content: "";
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
left: 5px;
|
||
top: 20px;
|
||
width: 2px;
|
||
height: calc(100% + 10px);
|
||
background-color: #e5e7eb;
|
||
}
|
||
.timeline-item:last-child:after {
|
||
display: none;
|
||
}
|
||
.copper-bg {
|
||
background-color: rgba(184, 115, 51, 0.05);
|
||
}
|
||
.copper-text {
|
||
color: #b87333;
|
||
}
|
||
.copper-border {
|
||
border-color: #b87333;
|
||
}
|
||
#particles-js {
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
width: 100%;
|
||
height: 100%;
|
||
top: 0;
|
||
left: 0;
|
||
z-index: -1;
|
||
}
|
||
.card-hover:hover {
|
||
transform: translateY(-5px);
|
||
box-shadow: 0 10px 20px rgba(0,0,0,0.1);
|
||
transition: all 0.3s ease;
|
||
}
|
||
.highlight-box {
|
||
background: linear-gradient(135deg, rgba(184, 115, 51, 0.1) 0%, rgba(205, 127, 50, 0.1) 100%);
|
||
border-left: 4px solid #b87333;
|
||
}
|
||
</style>
|
||
</head>
|
||
<body class="bg-gray-50">
|
||
<div id="particles-js"></div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="container mx-auto px-4 py-8 relative z-10">
|
||
<!-- 标题部分 -->
|
||
<div class="text-center mb-12">
|
||
<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-5xl font-bold copper-text mb-4">铜行业深度分析</h1>
|
||
<p class="text-lg text-gray-600 max-w-3xl mx-auto">供给硬约束与需求结构性爆发驱动的铜价主升浪初期</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 核心观点摘要 -->
|
||
<div class="card bg-white shadow-lg rounded-xl mb-8 card-hover">
|
||
<div class="card-body p-6">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold copper-text mb-4 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-lightbulb mr-3"></i>核心观点摘要
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<div class="highlight-box p-4 rounded-lg mb-4">
|
||
<p class="text-lg font-semibold mb-2">阶段判断</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">铜正处于"供给硬约束+需求结构性爆发"驱动的<strong class="copper-text">主升浪初期</strong>，短期关税扰动不改长期缺口逻辑。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-4">
|
||
<div class="copper-bg p-4 rounded-lg">
|
||
<p class="text-lg font-semibold mb-2">核心驱动力</p>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc pl-5 text-gray-700">
|
||
<li>全球铜矿资本开支长期不足（2013年后持续低于峰值<strong>30%</strong>）</li>
|
||
<li>新能源（光伏/风电/电车）用铜量<strong>2025-2030年CAGR 15%+</strong></li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="copper-bg p-4 rounded-lg">
|
||
<p class="text-lg font-semibold mb-2">预期差</p>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc pl-5 text-gray-700">
|
||
<li>市场高估了美国关税对需求的抑制</li>
|
||
<li>低估了<strong>中国电网投资（2024年同比+19.8%）</strong></li>
|
||
<li>低估了<strong>再生铜政策瓶颈</strong>对供给的收紧</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 概念事件时间轴 -->
|
||
<div class="card bg-white shadow-lg rounded-xl mb-8 card-hover">
|
||
<div class="card-body p-6">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold copper-text mb-6 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-history mr-3"></i>概念事件时间轴
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<div class="space-y-6">
|
||
<div class="timeline-item">
|
||
<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row md:items-center">
|
||
<div class="font-bold copper-text text-lg mb-2 md:mb-0 md:w-1/4">2024-02-26</div>
|
||
<div class="md:w-3/4">
|
||
<p class="font-semibold">美国启动铜232调查，关税预期升温</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-600">美铜溢价>10%，全球库存"搬家"至美国</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="timeline-item">
|
||
<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row md:items-center">
|
||
<div class="font-bold copper-text text-lg mb-2 md:mb-0 md:w-1/4">2024-08-14</div>
|
||
<div class="md:w-3/4">
|
||
<p class="font-semibold">全球最大铜矿Escondida罢工</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-600">当日沪铜主力<strong>+5%</strong>，强化供给扰动叙事</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="timeline-item">
|
||
<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row md:items-center">
|
||
<div class="font-bold copper-text text-lg mb-2 md:mb-0 md:w-1/4">2024-09-20</div>
|
||
<div class="md:w-3/4">
|
||
<p class="font-semibold">机构预测2030年铜缺口<strong>400万吨</strong></p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-600">长期看涨共识形成，铜价中枢预期抬升</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="timeline-item">
|
||
<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row md:items-center">
|
||
<div class="font-bold copper-text text-lg mb-2 md:mb-0 md:w-1/4">2025-04-29</div>
|
||
<div class="md:w-3/4">
|
||
<p class="font-semibold">中国洋山港溢价飙升至<strong>93美元/吨</strong></p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-600">现货紧张信号，国内库存降至历史低位</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="timeline-item">
|
||
<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row md:items-center">
|
||
<div class="font-bold copper-text text-lg mb-2 md:mb-0 md:w-1/4">2025-07-09</div>
|
||
<div class="md:w-3/4">
|
||
<p class="font-semibold">特朗普宣布对铜进口加征<strong>50%关税</strong></p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-600">美铜当日<strong>+17%</strong>，伦铜<strong>-2%</strong>，区域价差极端化</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="timeline-item">
|
||
<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row md:items-center">
|
||
<div class="font-bold copper-text text-lg mb-2 md:mb-0 md:w-1/4">2025-07-17</div>
|
||
<div class="md:w-3/4">
|
||
<p class="font-semibold">中国铜业召开高端铜基材料技术会</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-600">政策端推动铜产业链升级，强化新能源需求逻辑</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 核心逻辑与市场认知分析 -->
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-2 gap-8 mb-8">
|
||
<!-- 供给端 -->
|
||
<div class="card bg-white shadow-lg rounded-xl card-hover">
|
||
<div class="card-body p-6">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold copper-text mb-4 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-industry mr-2"></i>供给端：三重硬约束
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<div class="space-y-4">
|
||
<div class="copper-bg p-4 rounded-lg">
|
||
<p class="font-semibold mb-2">资源枯竭</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">全球铜矿平均品位从1998年<strong>1.07%</strong>降至2024年<strong>0.56%</strong>，智利Codelco 2024年品位仅<strong>0.64%</strong>（路演数据）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="copper-bg p-4 rounded-lg">
|
||
<p class="font-semibold mb-2">资本开支断层</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">2024年全球铜矿资本开支<strong>923亿美元</strong>，仍低于2013年峰值<strong>1277亿美元</strong>（广发证券）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="copper-bg p-4 rounded-lg">
|
||
<p class="font-semibold mb-2">地缘扰动</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">2024-2025年因罢工/环保导致的供给减量已超<strong>80万吨</strong>（Escondida、Cobre Panama等）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 需求端 -->
|
||
<div class="card bg-white shadow-lg rounded-xl card-hover">
|
||
<div class="card-body p-6">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold copper-text mb-4 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-chart-line mr-2"></i>需求端：新旧动能切换
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<div class="space-y-4">
|
||
<div class="copper-bg p-4 rounded-lg">
|
||
<p class="font-semibold mb-2">新能源占比</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">2024年全球新能源用铜占比<strong>14%</strong>，2030年预计达<strong>25%</strong>（光伏单GW耗铜<strong>3950吨</strong>，电车单车<strong>83kg</strong>）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="copper-bg p-4 rounded-lg">
|
||
<p class="font-semibold mb-2">中国电网</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">2024年1-4月电网投资<strong>1408亿元</strong>（同比+14.6%），特高压单条线路耗铜<strong>5-8万吨</strong></p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="copper-bg p-4 rounded-lg">
|
||
<p class="font-semibold mb-2">市场认知偏差</p>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc pl-5 text-gray-700">
|
||
<li>关税影响被夸大：美国铜需求仅占全球<strong>8%</strong>，且2025年已提前补库<strong>51万吨</strong>（高盛）</li>
|
||
<li>再生铜瓶颈：中国2025年再生铜占比目标<strong>35%</strong>，但积蓄量不足（2024年仅<strong>287万吨</strong>）</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 催化剂与路径 -->
|
||
<div class="card bg-white shadow-lg rounded-xl mb-8 card-hover">
|
||
<div class="card-body p-6">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold copper-text mb-6 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-rocket mr-3"></i>催化剂与路径
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
|
||
<div class="copper-bg p-5 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold copper-text mb-4">近期催化剂（3-6个月）</h3>
|
||
<ul class="space-y-3">
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-arrow-right copper-text mt-1 mr-2"></i>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<p class="font-semibold">美联储降息</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-600">若9月启动降息，将强化铜的金融属性（历史显示降息周期铜价平均涨幅<strong>30%+</strong>）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-arrow-right copper-text mt-1 mr-2"></i>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<p class="font-semibold">中国库存见底</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-600">当前全球显性库存<strong>40万吨</strong>（2025年7月），为近5年低位，补库弹性大</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="copper-bg p-5 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold copper-text mb-4">长期路径（2025-2030）</h3>
|
||
<ul class="space-y-3">
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-arrow-right copper-text mt-1 mr-2"></i>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<p class="font-semibold">2025-2026</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-600">缺口显性化（全球缺口<strong>19-31万吨</strong>），铜价突破<strong>1.2万美元/吨</strong>（多头科斯塔斯预测）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-arrow-right copper-text mt-1 mr-2"></i>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<p class="font-semibold">2027-2030</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-600">再生铜技术突破+非洲新矿投产（Kamoa三期、TFM扩产），缺口收窄但维持紧平衡</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 产业链与核心公司 -->
|
||
<div class="card bg-white shadow-lg rounded-xl mb-8 card-hover">
|
||
<div class="card-body p-6">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold copper-text mb-6 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-sitemap mr-3"></i>产业链与核心公司
|
||
</h2>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 产业链图谱 -->
|
||
<div class="mb-8">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold copper-text mb-4">产业链图谱</h3>
|
||
<div class="copper-bg p-6 rounded-lg text-center">
|
||
<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row justify-center items-center space-y-4 md:space-y-0 md:space-x-8">
|
||
<div class="bg-white p-4 rounded-lg shadow-md w-full md:w-1/4">
|
||
<p class="font-bold copper-text">上游</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">铜矿（智利/刚果金）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<i class="fas fa-arrow-right copper-text text-2xl hidden md:block"></i>
|
||
<div class="bg-white p-4 rounded-lg shadow-md w-full md:w-1/4">
|
||
<p class="font-bold copper-text">中游</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">冶炼（TC/RC博弈）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<i class="fas fa-arrow-right copper-text text-2xl hidden md:block"></i>
|
||
<div class="bg-white p-4 rounded-lg shadow-md w-full md:w-1/4">
|
||
<p class="font-bold copper-text">下游</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">电力（45%）/新能源（25%）/家电（15%）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 核心玩家对比 -->
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold copper-text mb-4">核心玩家对比</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="min-w-full bg-white border border-gray-200 rounded-lg">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr class="copper-gradient text-white">
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left font-semibold">公司</th>
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left font-semibold">资源量（万吨）</th>
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left font-semibold">2025E产量（万吨）</th>
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left font-semibold">核心逻辑</th>
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left font-semibold">风险点</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">紫金矿业</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4"><strong>7500</strong>（全球第三）</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">122</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">卡莫阿三期投产，成本<strong><1.5美元/磅</strong></td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">刚果金电力短缺</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">洛阳钼业</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">3464</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">52</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">TFM/KFM满产，铜钴协同</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">刚果金出口政策</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">江西铜业</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">874</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">200（冶炼）</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">国内冶炼龙头，TC触底反弹</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">资源自给率仅<strong>28%</strong></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">铜陵有色</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">637</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">175</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">米拉多二期2025投产，+25万吨</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">厄瓜多尔政治风险</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">金诚信</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">120</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">4.5</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">Lonshi铜矿2025达产，弹性最大</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">小矿体品位波动</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 验证与证伪 -->
|
||
<div class="mt-8">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold copper-text mb-4">验证与证伪</h3>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-4">
|
||
<div class="highlight-box p-4 rounded-lg">
|
||
<p class="font-semibold mb-2">数据印证</p>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc pl-5 text-gray-700">
|
||
<li>紫金2024Q1矿产铜<strong>26.3万吨</strong>（同比+15%），印证扩产逻辑</li>
|
||
<li>江西铜业TC现货<strong>-43美元/吨</strong>（2025年7月），验证冶炼压力</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="highlight-box p-4 rounded-lg">
|
||
<p class="font-semibold mb-2">矛盾点</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">研报预测2025年全球过剩<strong>19万吨</strong>，但路演中紫金/洛钼均表示<strong>"无过剩压力"</strong>——差异源于再生铜回收率假设（实际可能低10-15%）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 潜在风险 -->
|
||
<div class="card bg-white shadow-lg rounded-xl mb-8 card-hover">
|
||
<div class="card-body p-6">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold copper-text mb-6 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-exclamation-triangle mr-3"></i>潜在风险
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-4">
|
||
<div class="copper-bg p-5 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold copper-text mb-3">技术风险</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">4.5μm以下极薄铜箔良率不足（诺德股份量产进度低于预期）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="copper-bg p-5 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold copper-text mb-3">政策风险</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">智利拟将矿业税从<strong>40%提至47%</strong>（2025年提案），直接冲击成本曲线</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="copper-bg p-5 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold copper-text mb-3">需求黑天鹅</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">若中国地产新开工2025年再降<strong>20%</strong>，建筑用铜将拖累总需求<strong>3-5%</strong></p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 综合结论与投资启示 -->
|
||
<div class="card bg-white shadow-lg rounded-xl mb-8 card-hover">
|
||
<div class="card-body p-6">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold copper-text mb-6 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-chart-pie mr-3"></i>综合结论与投资启示
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<div class="highlight-box p-5 rounded-lg mb-6">
|
||
<p class="text-lg font-bold mb-2">阶段判断</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">铜已从<strong>"预期驱动"</strong>进入<strong>"基本面验证"</strong>阶段，缺口逻辑将在2025H2加速兑现</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6 mb-6">
|
||
<div class="copper-bg p-5 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold copper-text mb-3">投资方向</h3>
|
||
<ul class="space-y-2">
|
||
<li>
|
||
<p class="font-semibold">资源端</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">紫金矿业（量增+低成本）、洛阳钼业（铜钴共振）</p>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li>
|
||
<p class="font-semibold">冶炼端</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">江西铜业（TC反弹弹性）</p>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li>
|
||
<p class="font-semibold">再生铜</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">格林美（政策红利+技术壁垒）</p>
|
||
</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="md:col-span-2 copper-bg p-5 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold copper-text mb-3">跟踪指标</h3>
|
||
<ul class="space-y-3">
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-chart-line copper-text mt-1 mr-2"></i>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<p class="font-semibold">TC现货价</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">若持续低于<strong>20美元/吨</strong>，冶炼减产将触发缺口放大</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-chart-line copper-text mt-1 mr-2"></i>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<p class="font-semibold">中国电网投资</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">2025年若维持<strong>15%+增速</strong>，需求端无虞</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-chart-line copper-text mt-1 mr-2"></i>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<p class="font-semibold">LME库存</p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">跌破<strong>10万吨</strong>将触发逼仓行情</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 关联股票表格 -->
|
||
<div class="card bg-white shadow-lg rounded-xl card-hover">
|
||
<div class="card-body p-6">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold copper-text mb-6 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-table mr-3"></i>关联股票
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="min-w-full bg-white border border-gray-200 rounded-lg">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr class="copper-gradient text-white">
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left font-semibold">股票名称</th>
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left font-semibold">产业链</th>
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left font-semibold">原因</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">紫金矿业</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">铜矿-国内</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">华钰矿业</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">铜矿-国内</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">江西铜业</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">铜矿-国内</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">中金黄金</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">铜矿-国内</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">云南铜业</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">铜矿-国内</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">铜陵有色</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">铜矿-国内</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">白银有色</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">铜矿-国内</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">藏格矿业</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">铜矿-国内</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">西部矿业</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">铜矿-国内</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">北方铜业</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">铜矿-国内</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">金诚信</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">铜矿-国外</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">紫金矿业</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">铜矿-国外</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">洛阳钼业</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">铜矿-国外</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">中矿资源</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">铜矿-国外</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">盛屯矿业</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">铜矿-国外</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">飞南资源</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">电解铜</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">寒锐钴业</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">电解铜</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">铜陵有色</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">电解铜</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">鹏欣资源</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">电解铜</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">江西铜业</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">电解铜</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">北方铜业</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">电解铜</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">电工合金</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">铜产品</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">精艺股份</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">铜产品</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">众源新材</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">铜产品</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">河钢资源</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">铜产品</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">博威合金</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">铜产品</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">楚江新材</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">铜产品</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">CSPT中国铜原料联合谈判小组建议联合减产，铜涨价预期提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
// 初始化粒子背景
|
||
tsParticles.load("particles-js", {
|
||
particles: {
|
||
number: {
|
||
value: 30,
|
||
density: {
|
||
enable: true,
|
||
value_area: 800
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
color: {
|
||
value: "#b87333"
|
||
},
|
||
shape: {
|
||
type: "circle"
|
||
},
|
||
opacity: {
|
||
value: 0.5,
|
||
random: true
|
||
},
|
||
size: {
|
||
value: 3,
|
||
random: true
|
||
},
|
||
move: {
|
||
enable: true,
|
||
speed: 2,
|
||
direction: "none",
|
||
random: true,
|
||
straight: false,
|
||
out_mode: "out"
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
interactivity: {
|
||
detect_on: "canvas",
|
||
events: {
|
||
onhover: {
|
||
enable: true,
|
||
mode: "repulse"
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
retina_detect: true
|
||
});
|
||
</script>
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html>
|
||
``` |