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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<title>深度研报:上海算力</title>
<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
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<style>
:root {
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--glow-color-3: #c084fc; /* purple-400 */
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body {
font-family: 'Inter', 'Noto Sans SC', sans-serif;
background-color: #020617;
background-image:
radial-gradient(ellipse 200% 200% at 50% 10%, rgba(14, 165, 233, 0.1), transparent),
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mask-composite: exclude;
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transition: opacity 0.3s;
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.card-glow-border:hover::before {
opacity: 1;
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display: grid;
gap: 1rem;
grid-template-columns: repeat(12, 1fr);
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grid-column: span 12;
}
@media (min-width: 1024px) {
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}
</style>
</head>
<body class="text-slate-300 antialiased" x-data>
<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8 space-y-8" x-init="$el.classList.add('opacity-100', 'translate-y-0')" class="opacity-0 translate-y-4 transition-all duration-1000 ease-out">
<!-- Header -->
<header class="text-center py-8">
<div class="inline-block px-4 py-2 border border-slate-700 rounded-full text-sm font-medium text-slate-400 mb-4">
北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent“价小前投研”
</div>
<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold text-slate-100 glow-text tracking-tight">
上海算力
</h1>
<p class="text-lg md:text-xl text-slate-400 mt-4 max-w-3xl mx-auto">
AI驱动的深度产业洞察报告 | 本报告为AI合成数据投资需谨慎
</p>
</header>
<!-- Bento Grid -->
<section class="bento-grid">
<div class="bento-item bento-item-1 p-6 md:p-8 glass-card card-glow-border relative">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-sky-400 mb-4">核心观点摘要</h2>
<p class="text-slate-300 text-lg leading-relaxed">
“上海算力”概念的核心是<strong class="text-white font-semibold">政策强力驱动下的新基建战略落地</strong>当前正处于从大规模基础设施建设向“建用并举”的生态运营转化的关键阶段。其核心驱动力源于上海打造全球AI中心的顶层设计和对算力自主可控的战略决心未来潜力在于通过<strong class="text-white font-semibold">“平台+补贴”</strong>模式激活广阔的应用市场,形成“沪算沪用”乃至辐射长三角的产业闭环。
</p>
</div>
<div class="bento-item bento-item-2 p-6 glass-card relative flex flex-col">
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-indigo-400 mb-2">智算规模目标 (EFLOPS, FP16)</h3>
<div id="targetChart" class="flex-grow min-h-[250px]"></div>
</div>
<div class="bento-item bento-item-3 p-6 glass-card relative flex flex-col">
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-purple-400 mb-2">自主可控算力目标 (2027年)</h3>
<div id="autonomyChart" class="flex-grow min-h-[250px]"></div>
</div>
<div class="bento-item bento-item-4 p-6 glass-card card-glow-border relative flex flex-col justify-between">
<div>
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-sky-400 mb-2">标杆项目</h3>
<p class="text-slate-200 font-bold text-2xl">3万卡</p>
</div>
<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm mt-2">中国电信上海单集群国产超大规模液冷机群,国内首个,支持万亿参数大模型训练。</p>
</div>
<div class="bento-item bento-item-5 p-6 glass-card card-glow-border relative flex flex-col justify-between">
<div>
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-sky-400 mb-2">财政激励</h3>
<p class="text-slate-200 font-bold text-2xl">6亿元</p>
</div>
<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm mt-2">发放算力券协同市区补贴最高达100%租金补贴,旨在降低中小企业算力使用成本。</p>
</div>
<div class="bento-item bento-item-6 p-6 glass-card card-glow-border relative flex flex-col justify-between">
<div>
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-sky-400 mb-2">网络基础</h3>
<p class="text-slate-200 font-bold text-2xl">1ms</p>
</div>
<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm mt-2">构建“全市1毫秒、环沪2毫秒、长三角3毫秒”时延圈打造全球双万兆城市。</p>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Main Content Sections -->
<main class="space-y-8">
<!-- Concept Genesis -->
<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-slate-100 mb-6 border-l-4 border-sky-400 pl-4">概念事件与演进</h2>
<div class="timeline">
<div class="timeline-item mb-8">
<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
<p class="text-indigo-400 font-semibold">2023年9月</p>
<h4 class="text-xl text-slate-200 font-bold mt-1">奠定网络基石</h4>
<p class="text-slate-400 mt-2">发布《上海市进一步推进新型基础设施建设行动方案》,提出构建“全球双万兆城市”,为算力互联铺路。</p>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item mb-8">
<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
<p class="text-indigo-400 font-semibold">2023年12月</p>
<h4 class="text-xl text-slate-200 font-bold mt-1">明确算力目标</h4>
<p class="text-slate-400 mt-2">《关于人工智能"模塑申城"的实施方案》出台首次明确到2025年底全市智能算力规模突破 <strong class="text-white">100 EFLOPS</strong></p>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item mb-8">
<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
<p class="text-indigo-400 font-semibold">2024年1-2月</p>
<h4 class="text-xl text-slate-200 font-bold mt-1">标杆项目浮现</h4>
<p class="text-slate-400 mt-2">市场路演密集披露,中国电信计划在沪建设国内首个“<strong class="text-white">单集群3万卡国产超大规模液冷机群</strong>”,引发市场高度关注。</p>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item mb-8">
<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
<p class="text-indigo-400 font-semibold">2025年3月</p>
<h4 class="text-xl text-slate-200 font-bold mt-1">目标再加码</h4>
<p class="text-slate-400 mt-2">《促进智算云产业创新发展的实施意见》发布目标提升至2027年 <strong class="text-white">200EFLOPS</strong>,并首次强调<strong class="text-white">自主可控算力占比超70%</strong></p>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item">
<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
<p class="text-indigo-400 font-semibold">2025年7月18日</p>
<h4 class="text-xl text-slate-200 font-bold mt-1">一体化运营启动</h4>
<p class="text-slate-400 mt-2">“中国算力平台(上海)”与“上海市算力监测调度平台”正式启动,标志上海算力从“建设”迈向“<strong class="text-white">统筹、调度、交易</strong>”新阶段。</p>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Core Logic & Market Perception -->
<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-slate-100 mb-6 border-l-4 border-indigo-400 pl-4">核心驱动与市场认知</h2>
<div class="space-y-6">
<div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-slate-200 mb-2">核心驱动力:自上而下的政策铁腕与战略决心</h3>
<p class="text-slate-400 leading-relaxed">该概念的根本逻辑是<strong class="text-white">政策驱动</strong>。上海市政府通过设定明确量化目标100→200 EFLOPS, 70%自主可控率)、提供全方位政策配套(平台+6亿算力券+能耗保障),并承载“东数西算”等国家战略,为产业发展注入了极高的确定性。</p>
</div>
<div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-slate-200 mb-2">市场热度与情绪:高度乐观,聚焦“上海国资”与“平台模式”</h3>
<p class="text-slate-400 leading-relaxed">市场情绪<strong class="text-white">高度乐观</strong>,主要聚焦两大叙事:一是“上海国资”的确定性,认为如<strong class="text-white">云赛智联</strong>等国资背景企业是最大受益者;二是“算力国家电网”的想象空间,期待交易与调度平台能解决行业痛点,创造新商业模式。</p>
</div>
<div class="rise-analysis-card p-6">
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-yellow-400 mb-2">预期差分析:宏大叙事与商业现实的差距</h3>
<ul class="space-y-4 text-slate-300">
<li class="flex items-start">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6 text-yellow-400 mr-3 mt-1 flex-shrink-0" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M13 16h-1v-4h-1m1-4h.01M21 12a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z" /></svg>
<div>
<strong class="text-white">长期愿景 vs. 短期盈利:</strong>市场可能高估了算力业务短期内的盈利能力,忽视了前期巨大的资本开支。如世纪华通明确表示“算力业务对公司收入以及利润的影响仍然较小”。
</div>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6 text-yellow-400 mr-3 mt-1 flex-shrink-0" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M13 16h-1v-4h-1m1-4h.01M21 12a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z" /></svg>
<div>
<strong class="text-white">算力供给 vs. 有效需求:</strong>政府通过补贴大力推动供给,但非补贴驱动的商业化需求尚待验证。补贴退坡后,需求能否平稳衔接是核心风险。
</div>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6 text-yellow-400 mr-3 mt-1 flex-shrink-0" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M13 16h-1v-4h-1m1-4h.01M21 12a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z" /></svg>
<div>
<strong class="text-white">概念炒作 vs. 核心业务:</strong>部分关联个股上涨逻辑与核心关联度不高,存在概念泛化和炒作风险。例如,<strong class="text-white">上海港湾</strong>的上涨是由于“太空算力”题材炒作,与上海本地算力基础设施建设关联极弱,是典型的“伪概念股”。
</div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Catalysts & Path -->
<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-slate-100 mb-6 border-l-4 border-purple-400 pl-4">关键催化剂与发展路径</h2>
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
<div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-slate-200 mb-4">近期催化剂 (未来3-6个月)</h3>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-3 text-slate-300">
<li><strong class="text-white">标杆项目落地:</strong>中国电信3万卡国产集群的建成投产。</li>
<li><strong class="text-white">算力券效果评估:</strong>首批6亿元算力券使用情况报告发布。</li>
<li><strong class="text-white">平台实质运营:</strong>长三角算力互联互通平台公布首批跨区域调度案例。</li>
<li><strong class="text-white">“五个一”目标达成:</strong>中国算力平台(上海)公布阶段性成果。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-slate-200 mb-4">长期发展路径</h3>
<ol class="space-y-3 text-slate-300">
<li><strong class="text-white">第一阶段 (当前-2025):基础设施攻坚期。</strong>完成100 EFLOPS建设完善平台功能。</li>
<li><strong class="text-white">第二阶段 (2025-2027):生态繁荣与自主可控深化期。</strong>催生AI原生应用实现200 EFLOPS规模和70%自主可控目标。</li>
<li><strong class="text-white">第三阶段 (2027+):商业化成熟与模式输出期。</strong>市场化需求主导,上海“平台+运营”模式向全国输出。</li>
</ol>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Industry Chain -->
<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-slate-100 mb-6 border-l-4 border-sky-400 pl-4">产业链与核心公司深度剖析</h2>
<div class="space-y-8">
<div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-slate-200 mb-4">产业链图谱</h3>
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-6 text-sm">
<div class="bg-slate-800/50 p-4 rounded-xl border border-slate-700">
<h4 class="font-bold text-sky-400 mb-2">上游:基础设施与软硬件</h4>
<ul class="space-y-1 text-slate-400">
<li><strong class="text-slate-300">IDC建设与节能:</strong> 上海建科, 城地香江</li>
<li><strong class="text-slate-300">核心设备:</strong> 动力新科, 科泰电源, 良信股份</li>
<li><strong class="text-slate-300">液冷技术:</strong> 网宿科技</li>
<li><strong class="text-slate-300">算力芯片:</strong> 复旦微电</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="bg-slate-800/50 p-4 rounded-xl border border-slate-700">
<h4 class="font-bold text-indigo-400 mb-2">中游:算力服务与运营</h4>
<ul class="space-y-1 text-slate-400">
<li><strong class="text-slate-300">IDC运营商(核心):</strong> 云赛智联, 数据港, 宝信软件, 优刻得</li>
<li><strong class="text-slate-300">调度管理平台:</strong> 天玑科技</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="bg-slate-800/50 p-4 rounded-xl border border-slate-700">
<h4 class="font-bold text-purple-400 mb-2">下游:应用与生态</h4>
<ul class="space-y-1 text-slate-400">
<li><strong class="text-slate-300">AI模型与应用:</strong> 商汤科技, 安诺其</li>
<li><strong class="text-slate-300">行业语料数据:</strong> 新华传媒, 上海钢联</li>
<li><strong class="text-slate-300">算力需求方:</strong> 金融、医疗、具身智能、直播电商等</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-slate-200 mb-4">核心玩家对比</h3>
<div class="grid lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
<div class="glass-card p-6 border-sky-500/50 border-t-2">
<h4 class="font-bold text-xl text-sky-400">云赛智联 (600602)</h4>
<p class="text-sm font-semibold text-slate-300 mb-2">领导者 & 逻辑最纯粹者</p>
<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm">深厚上海国资背景,被定义为“上海算力建设的主力军”,深度融入生态核心。参股的上海智能算力科技营收高增并扭亏,商业化能力正在兑现。</p>
</div>
<div class="glass-card p-6 border-indigo-500/50 border-t-2">
<h4 class="font-bold text-xl text-indigo-400">数据港 (603881)</h4>
<p class="text-sm font-semibold text-slate-300 mb-2">稳健追赶者</p>
<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm">上海国资背景,客户质量高(世界级互联网公司),运营经验丰富。商业模式成熟,但在本轮统筹规划中的“官方”角色定位稍弱。</p>
</div>
<div class="glass-card p-6 border-purple-500/50 border-t-2">
<h4 class="font-bold text-xl text-purple-400">网宿科技 (300017)</h4>
<p class="text-sm font-semibold text-slate-300 mb-2">技术特色玩家</p>
<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm">布局<strong class="text-white">液冷技术</strong>切入高景气度细分赛道。电信3万卡集群采用液冷技术印证其技术路线重要性具备“技术+服务”双轮驱动潜力。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Risks & Challenges -->
<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-slate-100 mb-6 border-l-4 border-red-500 pl-4">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
<div class="flex items-start space-x-4">
<div class="flex-shrink-0 w-10 h-10 rounded-full bg-red-500/20 flex items-center justify-center">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6 text-red-400" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M12 9v2m0 4h.01m-6.938 4h13.856c1.54 0 2.502-1.667 1.732-3L13.732 4c-.77-1.333-2.694-1.333-3.464 0L3.34 16c-.77 1.333.192 3 1.732 3z"/></svg>
</div>
<div>
<h4 class="font-bold text-red-400">技术风险</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-slate-400">70%自主可控目标下国产AI芯片性能与生态瓶颈是硬约束异构算力调度技术实现难度巨大。</p>
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<div class="flex items-start space-x-4">
<div class="flex-shrink-0 w-10 h-10 rounded-full bg-yellow-500/20 flex items-center justify-center">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6 text-yellow-400" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M12 8c-1.657 0-3 .895-3 2s1.343 2 3 2 3 .895 3 2-1.343 2-3 2m0-8c1.11 0 2.08.402 2.599 1M12 8V7m0 1v.01" /></svg>
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<h4 class="font-bold text-yellow-400">商业化风险</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-slate-400">上海面临能耗指标紧张、电力成本高的问题;当前需求激活过度依赖补贴,真实市场需求存不确定性。</p>
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 w-10 h-10 rounded-full bg-orange-500/20 flex items-center justify-center">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6 text-orange-400" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M19 11H5m14 0a2 2 0 012 2v6a2 2 0 01-2 2H5a2 2 0 01-2-2v-6a2 2 0 012-2m14 0V9a2 2 0 00-2-2M5 11V9a2 2 0 012-2m0 0V5a2 2 0 012-2h6a2 2 0 012 2v2M7 7h10" /></svg>
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<div>
<h4 class="font-bold text-orange-400">政策与竞争风险</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-slate-400">政策执行进度若不及预期,将影响兑现节奏;北京、深圳等地的区域竞争可能导致资源争夺。</p>
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-slate-100 mb-6 border-l-4 border-sky-400 pl-4">相关概念股梳理</h2>
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<th class="bg-transparent text-base">股票名称</th>
<th class="bg-transparent text-base">股票代码</th>
<th class="bg-transparent text-base w-2/5">核心逻辑</th>
<th class="bg-transparent text-base">标签</th>
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<td class="font-semibold text-slate-200">云赛智联</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600602" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300 transition">600602</a></td>
<td>上海国资委;旗下上海科技拥有宝山云计算中心、宝山大数据中心、松江大数据中心等机柜资源。</td>
<td><span class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">上海国资</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="font-semibold text-slate-200">数据港</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603881" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300 transition">603881</a></td>
<td>上海静安国资委;国内少数获得多家世界级互联网公司认可的专业数据中心服务商。</td>
<td><span class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">上海国资</span></td>
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<td class="font-semibold text-slate-200">上海建科</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603153" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300 transition">603153</a></td>
<td>上海国资委;数据中心节能。</td>
<td><span class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">上海国资</span></td>
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<td class="font-semibold text-slate-200">动力新科</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600841" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300 transition">600841</a></td>
<td>上海国资委;柴油发动机 (数据中心后备应急电源)。</td>
<td><span class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">上海国资</span></td>
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<td class="font-semibold text-slate-200">宝信软件</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600845" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300 transition">600845</a></td>
<td>宝之云算力中心上海电信IDC业务。</td>
<td><span class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline">上海本地股</span></td>
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<td class="font-semibold text-slate-200">优刻得</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688158" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300 transition">688158</a></td>
<td>上海青浦数据中心;第三方云计算服务商。</td>
<td><span class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline">上海本地股</span></td>
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<td class="font-semibold text-slate-200">网宿科技</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300017" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300 transition">300017</a></td>
<td>子公司绿色云图推广液冷技术;子公司爱捷云搭建算力云平台,提供算力服务。</td>
<td><span class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline">上海本地股</span></td>
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<td class="font-semibold text-slate-200">良信股份</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002706" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300 transition">002706</a></td>
<td>产品应用于数据中心机房配电、智能监控、智慧运维等领域。</td>
<td><span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">设备供应</span></td>
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<tr>
<td class="font-semibold text-slate-200">城地香江</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603887" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300 transition">603887</a></td>
<td>公司为上海电信客户字节提供定制化数据中心服务。</td>
<td><span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">IDC建设</span></td>
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<td class="font-semibold text-slate-200">新华传媒</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600825" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300 transition">600825</a></td>
<td>上海国资委;学校英语阅读素材语料。</td>
<td><span class="badge badge-info badge-outline">语料相关</span></td>
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<td class="font-semibold text-slate-200">上海钢联</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300226" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300 transition">300226</a></td>
<td>提供大宗商品行业数据与分析为AI模型提供语料。</td>
<td><span class="badge badge-info badge-outline">语料相关</span></td>
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