455 lines
27 KiB
HTML
455 lines
27 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>深度投研报告：人形机器人Figure</title>
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<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.10.2/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<style>
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:root {
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--glow-color-1: rgba(79, 70, 229, 0.4); /* Indigo */
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body {
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font-family: 'Inter', sans-serif;
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background-color: #000000;
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background-image:
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radial-gradient(ellipse 20% 40% at 20% 40%, var(--glow-color-1), transparent),
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background-image:
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radial-gradient(1px 1px at 20% 30%, #ffffff, transparent),
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letter-spacing: 0.05em;
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padding: 1rem 1.5rem;
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font-family: 'Space Grotesk', sans-serif;
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font-weight: 600;
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transition: color 0.2s ease;
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}
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.stock-table td a:hover {
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color: #a78bfa; /* Violet-400 */
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="min-h-screen text-gray-300">
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<div id="star-field"></div>
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<header class="text-center py-16 md:py-24 px-4 relative">
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<div class="absolute inset-0 bg-grid-slate-900/[0.04] bg-[bottom_1px_center] dark:bg-grid-slate-400/[0.05] dark:bg-bottom_1px_center" style="mask-image: linear-gradient(to bottom, transparent, black 20%, black 80%, transparent); -webkit-mask-image: linear-gradient(to bottom, transparent, black 20%, black 80%, transparent);"></div>
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<h1 class="fui-title text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold bg-clip-text text-transparent bg-gradient-to-br from-white to-gray-400 mb-4">
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人形机器人Figure
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</h1>
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<p class="text-lg md:text-xl text-gray-400 max-w-3xl mx-auto">
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从技术验证到商业落地：AI软件定义硬件，产业巨头资本双轮驱动的下一代平台级公司
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</p>
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</header>
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<main class="container mx-auto px-4 md:px-8 space-y-16 md:space-y-24 pb-24">
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<!-- Section: Core Insight Summary -->
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<section>
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<h2 class="fui-title text-3xl font-bold text-center mb-12">核心观点摘要</h2>
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<div class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8 col-span-md-2">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl mb-4 text-white font-mono">核心驱动力</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-gray-300">
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<li><span class="text-indigo-400 font-semibold">技术突破:</span> AI大模型驱动的“具身智能”，自研Helix模型实现端侧高频控制。</li>
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<li><span class="text-indigo-400 font-semibold">商业路径:</span> 从B端（宝马、物流）切入，务实走向C端家庭场景。</li>
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<li><span class="text-indigo-400 font-semibold">量产设计:</span> F.03转向压铸、注塑工艺，贯彻“消费电子制造”理念，为规模化降本。</li>
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<li><span class="text-indigo-400 font-semibold">资本生态:</span> 微软、英伟达、亚马逊等巨头背书，深度绑定产业资源。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl mb-4 text-white font-mono">市场热度</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300">市场情绪极度乐观。估值在1.5年内从26亿跃升至390亿美元，增长近15倍，反映了资本市场对其颠覆性潜力的抢先定价。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8 row-span-md-2">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl mb-4 text-white font-mono">预期差分析</h3>
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<ol class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-3 text-gray-300">
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<li>
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<strong>硬件成熟度:</strong> 市场可能被软件光环吸引，高估了当前硬件在长期运行下的稳定性和可靠性。
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</li>
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<li>
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<strong>落地难度:</strong> “通用智能”Demo与复杂工业场景的“最后一公里”之间仍有鸿沟，商业化部署难度可能被低估。
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</li>
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<li>
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<strong>技术独立:</strong> 终止与OpenAI合作是端侧AI运行需求的必然选择，而非简单的“超越”，揭示了具身智能与AIGC的技术路径分歧。
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</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8 col-span-md-2">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl mb-4 text-white font-mono">投资价值环节</h3>
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<p class="mb-2 text-gray-300">随着量产启动，两大环节最具价值：</p>
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<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row gap-4">
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<div class="flex-1 p-4 bg-gray-800/50 rounded-lg border border-gray-700">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-fuchsia-400">1. 执行器 (Actuators)</h4>
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<p class="text-sm">机器人的“肌肉关节”，技术壁垒和价值量最高。深度绑定且具模块化供应能力的厂商（如兆威机电）价值凸显。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="flex-1 p-4 bg-gray-800/50 rounded-lg border border-gray-700">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-fuchsia-400">2. 轻量化与精密制造</h4>
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<p class="text-sm">成本与性能平衡的关键。轻量化（旭升集团）和大规模精密制造（领益智造）将直接受益于规模化放量。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Section: Timeline -->
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<section>
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<h2 class="fui-title text-3xl font-bold text-center mb-12">发展历程与催化事件</h2>
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<div class="timeline max-w-3xl mx-auto">
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<!-- 2022-2023 -->
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<div class="timeline-item md:w-1/2 md:ml-auto md:pr-8">
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<div class="glass-card p-6 mb-8">
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<time class="font-mono text-sm text-indigo-400">2022 - 2023.10</time>
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<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-white mt-1">技术奠基期</h3>
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<p class="text-sm mt-2">公司成立，并于2023年10月发布首款人形机器人Figure 01，展示基础硬件运动能力。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 2024 -->
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<div class="timeline-item md:w-1/2 md:mr-auto md:pl-8 md:text-right">
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<div class="glass-card p-6 mb-8">
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<time class="font-mono text-sm text-indigo-400">2024.02 - 2024.08</time>
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<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-white mt-1">AI赋能与市场瞩目期</h3>
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<p class="text-sm mt-2">完成6.75亿美元B轮融资，与OpenAI合作引爆市场。Figure 01进入宝马工厂试点，Figure 02发布，硬件全面升级。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 2025 -->
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<div class="timeline-item md:w-1/2 md:ml-auto md:pr-8">
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<div class="glass-card p-6 mb-8">
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<time class="font-mono text-sm text-indigo-400">2025.02 - 2025.10</time>
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<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-white mt-1">技术独立与商业化加速期</h3>
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<p class="text-sm mt-2">战略转折点：终止与OpenAI合作，发布自研Helix模型。签约第二家客户，启动BotQ工厂，发布为量产设计的Figure 03，C轮融资后估值达390亿美元。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Section: Product Evolution -->
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<section x-data="{ activeTab: 'f03' }">
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<h2 class="fui-title text-3xl font-bold text-center mb-12">产品迭代：从原型到量产</h2>
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<div class="tabs tabs-boxed justify-center mb-8 bg-gray-800/50 max-w-md mx-auto">
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<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{'tab-active': activeTab === 'f01'}" @click.prevent="activeTab = 'f01'">Figure 01</a>
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<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{'tab-active': activeTab === 'f02'}" @click.prevent="activeTab = 'f02'">Figure 02</a>
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<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{'tab-active': activeTab === 'f03'}" @click.prevent="activeTab = 'f03'">Figure 03</a>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-8 min-h-[300px]">
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<div x-show="activeTab === 'f01'" x-transition>
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold text-white mb-4">Figure 01 <span class="text-base font-normal text-gray-400">(2023.10) - AI交互验证</span></h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300">初代机器人，与OpenAI大模型深度集成，展示了惊艳的人机交互能力。能理解模糊指令（“我饿了”）、进行多轮对话、并基于常识推理执行任务（收拾桌面）。在宝马工厂进行了初步试点，验证了商业化可能性。</p>
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</div>
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<div x-show="activeTab === 'f02'" x-transition>
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold text-white mb-4">Figure 02 <span class="text-base font-normal text-gray-400">(2024.08) - 硬件与性能跃升</span></h3>
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<p class="mb-4 text-gray-300">硬件全面重构，采用外骨骼结构，外形更人性化。核心升级包括：</p>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-300">
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<li><strong>算力提升:</strong> 板载AI计算能力提升3倍。</li>
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<li><strong>灵巧手升级:</strong> 16自由度，集成触觉传感器。</li>
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<li><strong>续航增强:</strong> 电池容量提升，工作时间增加50%。</li>
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<li><strong>商业测试:</strong> 在宝马工厂深度测试，完成搬运、质检等多项任务。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div x-show="activeTab === 'f03'" x-transition>
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold text-white mb-4">Figure 03 <span class="text-base font-normal text-gray-400">(2025.10) - 为大规模量产而生</span></h3>
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<p class="mb-4 text-gray-300">定位为“面向 Helix、家庭、量产及商用”的通用型机器人，是其战略思想的集大成者：</p>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-300">
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<li><strong>为Helix设计:</strong> 视觉系统、手部触觉、数据传输能力全面升级，为AI模型提供更优数据。</li>
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<li><strong>为家庭设计:</strong> 更轻更安全，采用软质材料，支持无线充电和无工具拆卸。</li>
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<li><strong>为量产设计:</strong> 以“可制造性”为核心，从CNC转向压铸/注塑工艺，大幅降低成本和生产时间。</li>
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<li><strong>为商用设计:</strong> 执行器速度扭矩翻倍，能抓取多样物品，适应更广泛的工业场景。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Section: Valuation Chart -->
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<section>
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<h2 class="fui-title text-3xl font-bold text-center mb-12">估值跃迁</h2>
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<div class="glass-card p-4 md:p-8">
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<div id="valuationChart" class="w-full h-96"></div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Section: Key Catalysts & Future Path -->
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<section>
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<h2 class="fui-title text-3xl font-bold text-center mb-12">未来路径与关键催化剂</h2>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div class="glass-card p-8">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl mb-4 text-white font-mono">近期催化剂 (未来3-6个月)</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-300">
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<li><strong>F.03 性能测评:</strong> 在客户工厂的实际部署效果、效率、故障率等关键数据披露。</li>
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<li><strong>BotQ 工厂产能:</strong> 实际产出量和良品率，衡量量产能力的核心指标。</li>
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<li><strong>新客户签约:</strong> 宣布签约第三家、第四家行业头部客户，证明方案可复制性。</li>
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<li><strong>家庭场景Alpha测试:</strong> 任何关于家庭场景测试的进展披露将极大拓展市场想象空间。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-8">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl mb-4 text-white font-mono">长期发展路径</h3>
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<ol class="space-y-2 text-gray-300">
|
||
<li><strong><span class="text-fuchsia-400">阶段一 (当前-2026):</span></strong> B端工业场景规模化部署，实现数万台部署，完成技术验证和成本优化。</li>
|
||
<li><strong><span class="text-fuchsia-400">阶段二 (2026-2028):</span></strong> 横向场景拓展，进入零售、医疗等领域，成本大幅下降至关键拐点。</li>
|
||
<li><strong><span class="text-fuchsia-400">阶段三 (2028+):</span></strong> 大规模进入C端家庭市场，核心价值转向Helix操作系统和应用生态，成为平台级公司。</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Section: Risks -->
|
||
<section>
|
||
<h2 class="fui-title text-3xl font-bold text-center mb-12">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-8">
|
||
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-lg text-amber-400 mb-2">技术风险</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">硬件长期可靠性与耐久性待验证；AI模型在真实复杂环境下的鲁棒性与泛化能力面临考验。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-lg text-amber-400 mb-2">商业化风险</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">高昂成本下的投资回报（ROI）是客户大规模采购的关键；量产爬坡进度可能不及预期。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-lg text-amber-400 mb-2">竞争与政策风险</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">特斯拉Optimus等强大对手竞争激烈；相关安全、伦理法规标准尚未建立，可能成为发展障碍。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Section: Stock Table -->
|
||
<section>
|
||
<h2 class="fui-title text-3xl font-bold text-center mb-12">产业链核心公司梳理</h2>
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-0 overflow-hidden">
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="stock-table">
|
||
<thead class="text-sm text-gray-300 uppercase">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑</th>
|
||
<th>分类</th>
|
||
<th>信源可靠性</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<!-- Data from JSON -->
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-700"><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=003021" target="_blank">兆威机电 (003021)</a></td><td>稀缺执行器模块化供应商，路演称独家供应灵巧手电机模组。</td><td><span class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">灵巧手</span></td><td>券商纪要/路演</td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-700"><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002600" target="_blank">领益智造 (002600)</a></td><td>提供模切/金属/软包结构件、散热/无线充电模组。</td><td><span class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline">结构件/模组</span></td><td>调研/券商纪要</td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-700"><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300115" target="_blank">长盈精密 (300115)</a></td><td>提供人形机器人零组件，合作开发精密齿轮系统。</td><td><span class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline">结构件</span></td><td>互动</td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-700"><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603305" target="_blank">旭升集团 (603305)</a></td><td>镁铝压铸件，契合Figure 03转向压铸的量产降本路径。</td><td><span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">轻量化</span></td><td>券商纪要</td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-700"><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603920" target="_blank">世运电路 (603920)</a></td><td>获F公司新产品定点，相关设计方案冻结并进入转量产准备阶段。</td><td><span class="badge badge-info badge-outline">PCB</span></td><td>互动</td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-700"><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300680" target="_blank">隆盛科技 (300680)</a></td><td>通过日本尼得科间接供货Figure。</td><td><span class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">旋转执行器</span></td><td>券商纪要</td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-700"><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301225" target="_blank">恒勃股份 (301225)</a></td><td>为Figure国产链合作伙伴，提供结构件（含PEEK等注塑件）。</td><td><span class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline">结构件/轻量化</span></td><td>券商纪要</td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-700"><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688017" target="_blank">绿的谐波 (688017)</a></td><td>国内谐波减速器龙头，被多次提及为潜在供应商。</td><td><span class="badge badge-warning badge-outline">潜在</span></td><td>券商纪要</td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-700"><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002126" target="_blank">银轮股份 (002126)</a></td><td>执行器总成标的。</td><td><span class="badge badge-warning badge-outline">潜在</span></td><td>券商纪要</td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-700"><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603728" target="_blank">鸣志电器 (603728)</a></td><td>微电机，灵巧手潜在供应商。</td><td><span class="badge badge-warning badge-outline">潜在</span></td><td>券商纪要</td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<footer class="text-center p-8 border-t border-gray-800/50 mt-16">
|
||
<p class="font-mono text-sm text-gray-500">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研”</p>
|
||
<p class="text-xs text-gray-600 mt-2">本报告为AI合成数据，所有内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，投资需谨慎。</p>
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