575 lines
34 KiB
HTML
575 lines
34 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>深度行研 | 供销社概念</title>
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<style>
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:root {
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--glow-size: 600px;
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background-color: #01010a;
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<body x-data @mousemove="
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">
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<div class="bg-animation"></div>
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<div class="pointer-glow"></div>
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8 max-w-7xl">
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<header class="text-center my-12">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold title-glow tracking-tight text-gray-100">深度行研</h1>
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<h2 class="text-5xl md:text-7xl font-extrabold title-glow text-transparent bg-clip-text bg-gradient-to-r from-blue-400 to-indigo-600 mt-2">供销社概念</h2>
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</header>
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<main class="space-y-8">
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<!-- 0. 概念事件 -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-gray-100">概念事件脉络</h3>
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<div id="timeline-chart" style="width: 100%; height: 400px;"></div>
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<div class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-4">
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<p>“供销社”概念在分析期间由政策驱动，其核心叙事逻辑逐渐从传统的“乡村振兴”泛主题，向更具业务实质的“循环经济”新方向演进。上图展示了关键政策发布节点与市场热度的脉冲式反应。</p>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 1. 核心观点摘要 -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-gray-100">核心观点摘要</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">
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“供销社”概念本质上是一个<strong class="highlight-text">政策驱动型主题</strong>，其投资逻辑正经历从模糊的“乡村振兴”宏大叙事，向清晰的<strong class="highlight-text">“循环经济-再生资源回收”</strong>业务基本面的转型与聚焦。当前，该概念仍处于主题炒作与基本面验证的过渡阶段，其核心驱动力源于供销社体系独一无二的<strong class="highlight-text">全国性、下沉式渠道网络价值</strong>在国家战略（循环经济、乡村振兴）中的重估。未来潜力在于，这一“沉睡”的网络资产能否在政策支持下被有效地商业化激活，从而兑现为相关上市公司的业绩增长。
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</p>
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</section>
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<!-- 2. 核心逻辑与市场认知分析 -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-gray-100">核心逻辑与市场认知</h3>
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<div class="space-y-6">
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<div>
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-200">核心驱动力：政策驱动下的存量网络价值重估</h4>
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<p class="text-gray-400 mt-2">供销社体系的核心资产是其遍布全国、深入乡镇的组织和物理网络。两项国家级战略赋予其新的时代内涵：</p>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside mt-3 space-y-2 text-gray-300">
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<li><strong class="highlight-text">循环经济 (新增长点):</strong> 以2025年5月的七部门文件为标志，政策明确将供销社定位为废旧家电家具回收体系建设的主力军。其“基层网点优势”被视为解决回收行业“最后一公里”痛点的关键。</li>
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<li><strong class="highlight-text">乡村振兴 (基本盘):</strong> 这是供销社的传统使命和长期政策背景，在农业现代化、农资流通、农产品上行等方面扮演关键角色。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 border border-blue-800/30 rounded-2xl bg-blue-950/20">
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<p class="font-mono text-sm text-blue-300">[路演纪要] 广发环保 (2025-01-13)</p>
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<p class="text-gray-300 mt-2 italic">“强化供销合作社体系作用”是以旧换新新政的核心新增点，其基层网点优势是健全回收利用网络的关键。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-200">市场热度与情绪：脉冲式事件驱动</h4>
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<p class="text-gray-400 mt-2">市场热度与政策发布和重要时点（如70周年）高度同步，呈现脉冲式特征。情绪整体偏向乐观但投机性强，板块剧烈波动，表明资金多为短线博弈，市场共识尚不稳固。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-200">预期差分析：“宏大叙事”与“商业现实”</h4>
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<p class="text-gray-400 mt-2">市场普遍认知供销社拥有无与伦比的下沉网络，但存在显著预期差：</p>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside mt-3 space-y-2 text-gray-300">
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<li><strong class="highlight-text">网络价值 vs. 运营效率:</strong> 庞大网络的实际运营效率、管理水平和商业化能力可能被高估。</li>
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<li><strong class="highlight-text">政策扶持 vs. 内生造血:</strong> 政策“输血”备受关注，但核心标的<strong class="text-red-400">“现金流紧张制约扩张”</strong>是市场最易忽略的关键风险。</li>
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</ul>
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<div class="p-4 border border-amber-800/30 rounded-2xl bg-amber-950/20 mt-4">
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<p class="font-mono text-sm text-amber-300">[路演纪要] 东吴证券 (2025-01-09)</p>
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<p class="text-gray-300 mt-2 italic">“核心标的【中再资环】依托供销社体系，拆解量市占率达20%，但现金流紧张制约扩张。”</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 3. 关键催化剂与未来发展路径 -->
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<section class="bento-grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2">
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<div class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-gray-100">关键催化剂</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-4">
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 h-8 w-8 rounded-full bg-indigo-500/20 flex items-center justify-center mr-4 ring-1 ring-indigo-500/50">
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<svg class="h-5 w-5 text-indigo-400" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M9 12l2 2 4-4m6 2a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z" /></svg>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-gray-200">再生资源回收政策细则落地</h4>
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<p class="text-gray-400 text-sm">各省市具体实施方案、补贴政策或试点项目公布，是验证政策能否转化为订单的“试金石”。</p>
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</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 h-8 w-8 rounded-full bg-indigo-500/20 flex items-center justify-center mr-4 ring-1 ring-indigo-500/50">
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<svg class="h-5 w-5 text-indigo-400" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M19 21V5a2 2 0 00-2-2H7a2 2 0 00-2 2v16m14 0h2m-2 0h-5m-9 0H3m2 0h5M9 7h6m-6 4h6m-6 4h6" /></svg>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-gray-200">核心公司合作公告</h4>
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<p class="text-gray-400 text-sm">与大型家电销售企业或地方政府签订大规模“换新+回收”合作协议。</p>
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</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 h-8 w-8 rounded-full bg-indigo-500/20 flex items-center justify-center mr-4 ring-1 ring-indigo-500/50">
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<svg class="h-5 w-5 text-indigo-400" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M13 10V3L4 14h7v7l9-11h-7z" /></svg>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-gray-200">中国资源循环集团的资产运作</h4>
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<p class="text-gray-400 text-sm">若其与供销社体系的整合有实质性进展，将是重磅催化剂。</p>
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</div>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-gray-100">未来发展路径</h3>
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<ol class="relative border-l border-gray-700 space-y-8">
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<li class="ml-6">
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<span class="absolute flex items-center justify-center w-6 h-6 bg-blue-900 rounded-full -left-3 ring-8 ring-gray-900 ring-opacity-50">
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<span class="text-blue-300 font-bold">1</span>
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</span>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-gray-200">网络整合与模式验证</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">当前阶段：整合基层网点，跑通“互联网+回收”等商业模式。</p>
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</li>
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<li class="ml-6">
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<span class="absolute flex items-center justify-center w-6 h-6 bg-blue-900 rounded-full -left-3 ring-8 ring-gray-900 ring-opacity-50">
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<span class="text-blue-300 font-bold">2</span>
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</span>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-gray-200">规模扩张与数据变现</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">利用全国网络优势快速复制扩张，提升市占率，沉淀数据价值。</p>
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</li>
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<li class="ml-6">
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<span class="absolute flex items-center justify-center w-6 h-6 bg-blue-900 rounded-full -left-3 ring-8 ring-gray-900 ring-opacity-50">
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<span class="text-blue-300 font-bold">3</span>
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</span>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-gray-200">平台化与生态构建</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">成为城乡双向流通的综合服务平台，形成闭环的“供销社生态圈”。</p>
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</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 4. 产业链与核心公司深度剖析 -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-gray-100">产业链与核心公司</h3>
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<div class="bento-grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3">
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<div class="md:col-span-3 glass-card p-6 bg-gray-900/30 border-gray-700/50">
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-200">产业链图谱</h4>
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<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row items-center justify-between mt-4 space-y-4 md:space-y-0 md:space-x-4">
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<div class="text-center">
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<div class="p-4 rounded-xl bg-blue-950/50 border border-blue-800/50">上游</div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-2">产品持有者<br>(居民/企业)</p>
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</div>
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<div class="text-3xl text-gray-600">→</div>
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<div class="text-center">
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<div class="p-4 rounded-xl bg-indigo-950/50 border border-indigo-800/50 ring-2 ring-indigo-500/50">
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<p class="font-bold">中游 (核心)</p>
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<p class="text-indigo-300">供销社体系</p>
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</div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-2">渠道组织者<br>服务平台</p>
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</div>
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<div class="text-3xl text-gray-600">→</div>
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<div class="text-center">
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<div class="p-4 rounded-xl bg-purple-950/50 border border-purple-800/50">下游</div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-2">拆解/再利用企业<br>现代农业/消费者</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="md:col-span-1 glass-card p-6 bg-green-950/20 border-green-800/30">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-green-300">中再资环 (龙头)</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-2">供销总社旗下再生资源旗舰，逻辑最纯，市占率20%。</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-red-400 mt-2 font-semibold">风险：现金流紧张。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="md:col-span-1 glass-card p-6 bg-sky-950/20 border-sky-800/30">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-sky-300">中农联合/立华 (国家队)</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-2">农资领域国家队，渠道和品牌优势显著，业务模式相对传统。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="md:col-span-1 glass-card p-6 bg-amber-950/20 border-amber-800/30">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-amber-300">天禾/浙农/辉隆 (地方诸侯)</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-2">各省供销社实控，区域壁垒强，但成长天花板相对明确。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 5. 潜在风险与挑战 -->
|
||
<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-gray-100">潜在风险与挑战</h3>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-red-400 flex items-center">
|
||
<svg class="w-5 h-5 mr-2" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M12 8v4m0 4h.01M21 12a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z"></path></svg>
|
||
商业化风险
|
||
</h4>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside text-gray-400 mt-2 space-y-1 text-sm">
|
||
<li>盈利模式不确定：前端回收环节利润微薄，可持续性待验证。</li>
|
||
<li>执行与整合风险：体系庞大，层级众多，管理效率是巨大挑战。</li>
|
||
<li>市场竞争：面临灵活的民营企业和个体户的激烈竞争。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-red-400 flex items-center">
|
||
<svg class="w-5 h-5 mr-2" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M12 8v4m0 4h.01M21 12a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z"></path></svg>
|
||
政策与信息风险
|
||
</h4>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside text-gray-400 mt-2 space-y-1 text-sm">
|
||
<li>政策依赖度过高：政策支持力度减弱或补贴退坡，将严重冲击底层逻辑。</li>
|
||
<li>信息“温差”矛盾：股市热，但产业宏观研究中提及甚少，揭示其主题性强于基本面共识的现状。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 6. 综合结论与投资启示 -->
|
||
<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-gray-100">综合结论与投资启示</h3>
|
||
<div class="space-y-6">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-200">最终看法</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-400 mt-2">“供销社”概念正从纯主题炒作向基本面驱动的早期阶段过渡。核心价值在于盘活沉睡的全国性网络资产，但商业化落地仍充满不确定性。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-200">最具投资价值的细分环节</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-300 mt-2"><strong class="highlight-text">再生资源回收</strong>是当前最具价值的方向。原因包括：<strong class="highlight-text">政策确定性高</strong>（七部门发文）、<strong class="highlight-text">市场空间大</strong>（以旧换新）、<strong class="highlight-text">商业逻辑新</strong>（循环经济+ESG）、<strong class="highlight-text">龙头清晰</strong>（中再资环）。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-200">需重点跟踪的关键指标</h4>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-2 md:grid-cols-4 gap-4 mt-3">
|
||
<div class="p-4 bg-gray-800/50 rounded-xl text-center"><p class="font-semibold text-gray-300">政策落地进度</p><p class="text-xs text-gray-500">补贴金额/实施细则</p></div>
|
||
<div class="p-4 bg-gray-800/50 rounded-xl text-center"><p class="font-semibold text-gray-300">核心公司订单</p><p class="text-xs text-gray-500">合同金额/现金流</p></div>
|
||
<div class="p-4 bg-gray-800/50 rounded-xl text-center"><p class="font-semibold text-gray-300">网络整合效率</p><p class="text-xs text-gray-500">网点数量/活跃度</p></div>
|
||
<div class="p-4 bg-gray-800/50 rounded-xl text-center"><p class="font-semibold text-gray-300">盈利能力变化</p><p class="text-xs text-gray-500">业务毛利率</p></div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock Data -->
|
||
<section class="glass-card overflow-hidden">
|
||
<div class="p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-100">核心概念股梳理</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-1">基于2024年11月28日市场事件节点梳理的核心标的。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="custom-table">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑</th>
|
||
<th>其他标签</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>中农联合</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=003042" target="_blank">003042</a></td>
|
||
<td>实控人是中华全国供销合作总社</td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag">制图节点涨幅大于10%</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>供销大集</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000564" target="_blank">000564</a></td>
|
||
<td>实控人是中华全国供销合作总社。计划收购北京新合作商业发展有限公司股权</td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag">制图节点涨幅大于10%</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>天禾股份</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002999" target="_blank">002999</a></td>
|
||
<td>实控人是广东供销社</td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag">制图节点涨幅大于10%</span></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>天鹅股份</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603029" target="_blank">603029</a></td>
|
||
<td>实控人是山东供销社</td>
|
||
<td></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>浙农股份</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002758" target="_blank">002758</a></td>
|
||
<td>实控人是浙江供销社</td>
|
||
<td></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>中农立华</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603970" target="_blank">603970</a></td>
|
||
<td>实控人是中华全国供销合作总社</td>
|
||
<td></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>辉隆股份</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002556" target="_blank">002556</a></td>
|
||
<td>实控人是安徽供销社</td>
|
||
<td></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>新力金融</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600318" target="_blank">600318</a></td>
|
||
<td>实控人为安徽供销社</td>
|
||
<td></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>中再资环</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600217" target="_blank">600217</a></td>
|
||
<td>实控人是中华全国供销合作总社</td>
|
||
<td></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<section class="glass-card overflow-hidden">
|
||
<div class="p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-100">相关个股异动解析</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-1">筛选部分与供销社概念相关的个股涨停原因分析。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="custom-table">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票</th>
|
||
<th>日期</th>
|
||
<th>涨幅</th>
|
||
<th>驱动逻辑解析</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>新农股份 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002942" target="_blank">002942</a>)</td>
|
||
<td>2025-07-03</td>
|
||
<td>10.02%</td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm"><b>驱动概念:</b> 无人机植保+乡村振兴+<span class="tag">供销社</span><br><b>核心结论:</b> “无人机植保补贴”政策落地叠加公司与北大荒、极飞合作，资金一次性定价政策红利。<br><b>供销社关联:</b> 公司大股东为浙江省供销社旗下浙农控股，具备全国农资渠道协同优势。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>祖名股份 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=003030" target="_blank">003030</a>)</td>
|
||
<td>2025-10-24</td>
|
||
<td>9.99%</td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm"><b>驱动概念:</b> 杭州国资+<span class="tag">供销社</span>+植物奶新国标<br><b>核心结论:</b> 杭州国资溢价入股+浙江省供销社锁定3.6亿元大单+植物奶新国标生效，三则公告形成共振。<br><b>供销社关联:</b> 省供销社官网公告，系统内农贸市场及团餐每年采购祖名植物奶/豆腐3.6亿元。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<footer class="text-center mt-12 mb-6">
|
||
<p class="text-xs text-gray-600">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现</p>
|
||
<p class="text-xs text-gray-600 mt-1">本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。</p>
|
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</footer>
|
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