680 lines
46 KiB
HTML
680 lines
46 KiB
HTML
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<title>光伏产业链 - 深度行业研究报告</title>
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<header class="text-center py-8">
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<h1 class="text-5xl font-bold text-cyan-300 tracking-widest">光伏产业链</h1>
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<p class="mt-4 text-lg text-purple-300">深度行业研究报告</p>
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<p class="text-sm mt-2 text-gray-400">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现<br>本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。</p>
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</header>
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<main class="space-y-12">
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<!-- Concept Insight -->
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<section id="insight">
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<div class="glass-card p-8">
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<h2 class="section-title">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-8 w-8" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M9.663 17h4.673M12 3v1m6.364 1.636l-.707.707M21 12h-1M4 12H3m3.343-5.657l-.707-.707m2.828 9.9a5 5 0 117.072 0l-.548.547A3.374 3.374 0 0014 18.469V19a2 2 0 11-4 0v-.531c0-.895-.356-1.754-.988-2.386l-.548-.547z" /></svg>
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概念核心洞察
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</h2>
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<div class="space-y-6">
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<article class="p-6 bg-black bg-opacity-20 rounded-xl border border-transparent hover:border-cyan-400/50 transition-colors">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-fui text-cyan-300 mb-2">0. 概念事件：周期调整与行业自救</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">光伏产业链在2024至2025年间经历了一场深刻的周期性调整，其核心叙事围绕着**产能严重过剩、价格非理性下跌、行业自救（“反内卷”）以及技术迭代**展开。从2024年Q2全线跌破生产成本，到Q3跌破现金成本，行业进入残酷的生存战。转折点出现在2024年底至2025年初，行业自律会议与供给侧改革预期推动价格探涨。2025年Q1因“抢装潮”出现短期需求扰动，但Q2再度探底。最终在2025年Q3，以“不低于成本销售”为核心的“反内卷”共识成为标志性事件，硅料、硅片企业强制性提价，推动产业链进入被动修复阶段，行业格局开始向“剩者为王”与“技术为王”分化。</p>
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</article>
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
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<input type="radio" name="insight-accordion" checked="checked" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">1. 核心观点摘要</div>
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<div class="collapse-content p-6">
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<p>光伏产业链正处于**周期底部的出清阶段**，其核心驱动力已从过去的需求高增转变为**供给侧的强制性收缩与市场化淘汰**。当前市场正经历由政策和行业自律主导的“反内卷”行情，但这并不意味着基本面全面反转，真正的复苏将取决于落后产能的实质性退出和新技术（如BC电池）的商业化落地，行业正从“普涨”走向**“剩者为王”与“技术为王”**的结构性分化。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
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<input type="radio" name="insight-accordion" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">2. 核心逻辑与市场认知分析</div>
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<div class="collapse-content p-6 space-y-4">
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<div>
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-purple-300">核心驱动力：供给侧改革</h4>
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<p>当前支撑光伏概念的核心逻辑是供给侧改革，包含两个层面：一是长达半年的现金亏损驱动的**市场化出清**；二是行业协会与监管层推动的**“反内卷”**行动，核心是“不低于全成本销售”的价格同盟。驱动力已从“降本增效”的成长叙事，转变为“去产能、保利润”的周期反转叙事。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-purple-300">市场热度与情绪：底部博弈</h4>
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<p>市场高度关注，但情绪复杂，呈现典型的“底部博弈”特征。乐观方认为最坏时期已过，估值低位具备反弹动力；谨慎方则认为彻底出清仍需时日，对“反内卷”的持续性存疑。市场情绪在“政策底已现”和“市场底未明”之间摇摆。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-purple-300">预期差分析</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 pl-4 text-gray-300">
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<li><strong class="text-white">价格上涨 vs. 真实盈利：</strong>市场关注报价上涨，但忽略了多个环节单瓦盈利仍为负值。预期差在于：价格反弹不等于立即盈利，恢复盈利尚需时日和需求配合。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">“反内卷”口号 vs. 执行落地：</strong>市场期待协同行动，但龙头企业间存在利益博弈（如低成本企业减产意愿不强）。预期差在于：市场可能高估了行业自律的协同性，低估了出清过程的复杂性。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">技术路线共识与分歧：</strong>市场普遍认知TOPCon是主流，但对下一代技术（BC vs. HJT）路径存分歧。预期差在于：对BC技术替代TOPCon的速度和广度存在争议，而这恰是未来龙头分化的关键。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
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<input type="radio" name="insight-accordion" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">3. 关键催化剂与未来发展路径</div>
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<div class="collapse-content p-6 space-y-4">
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<div>
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-purple-300">近期催化剂 (未来3-6个月)</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 pl-4">
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<li>供给侧改革政策细化与落地（如产能、能耗限制，硅料收储方案）。</li>
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<li>龙头企业Q3/Q4财报验证毛利率和现金流是否实质性改善。</li>
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<li>BC技术成本与良率突破，验证其领先性。</li>
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<li>海外（欧美）库存去化结束，新订单回升的明确数据。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-purple-300">长期发展路径</h4>
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<ol class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-2 pl-4">
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<li><strong class="text-white">出清整合期 (当前-2025年底)：</strong>通过市场化与行政化手段淘汰落后产能，行业出现大规模并购重组。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">技术分化期 (2025-2026年)：</strong>TOPCon红利见顶，BC技术大规模渗透，市场份额向BC龙头集中。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">盈利修复与新增长期 (2026年以后)：</strong>供需恢复健康，增长驱动力转向技术溢价和差异化竞争。</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
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<input type="radio" name="insight-accordion" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">4. 产业链与核心公司深度剖析</div>
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<div class="collapse-content p-6 space-y-4">
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<div class="glass-card p-4 rounded-lg col-span-1 md:col-span-2">
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<h4 class="font-fui text-purple-300 mb-2">产业链图谱</h4>
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<p><strong>上游:</strong> 硅料 (通威、大全), 硅片 (隆基、TCL中环), 石英砂/坩埚 (石英股份、欧晶科技)</p>
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<p><strong>中游:</strong> 电池片 (TOPCon: 晶科、钧达; BC: 隆基、爱旭; HJT: 爱康), 组件 (隆基、晶科、晶澳)</p>
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<p><strong>辅材:</strong> 玻璃 (福莱特), 胶膜 (福斯特), 银浆 (聚和材料), 逆变器 (阳光电源)</p>
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<p><strong>设备:</strong> 单晶炉 (晶盛机电), 激光设备 (帝尔激光), 串焊机 (奥特维)</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-4 rounded-lg">
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<h4 class="font-fui text-purple-300 mb-2">BC技术双雄：隆基 vs. 爱旭</h4>
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<p><strong>隆基绿能:</strong> 市场领导者，品牌、渠道、规模优势。风险在于体量大，转型链条长。</p>
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<p><strong>爱旭股份:</strong> 技术先行者，逻辑最纯，全力押注BC。Q2已盈利。风险在于规模和品牌力相对较弱。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-4 rounded-lg">
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<h4 class="font-fui text-purple-300 mb-2">TOPCon一体化龙头：晶科 vs. 钧达</h4>
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<p><strong>晶科能源:</strong> 全球组件龙头，规模巨大，全球化布局。保留BC技术跟随能力。</p>
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<p><strong>钧达股份:</strong> 纯粹TOPCon电池供应商，弹性最大。风险在于业务单一，受环节景气度影响大。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card p-4 rounded-lg col-span-1 md:col-span-2">
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<h4 class="font-fui text-purple-300 mb-2">信息交叉验证与风险点</h4>
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<p><strong>验证：</strong>路演中“供给端加速出清”逻辑，被后续新闻中企业停产、开工率下降所验证。</p>
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<p><strong>证伪/风险：</strong>新闻数据估算多个环节仍负盈利，警示“价格修复不等于盈利修复”。部分研报和新闻数据对组件盈利能力的判断存在矛盾，需警惕其盈利能力可能不如预期乐观。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
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<input type="radio" name="insight-accordion" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">5. 潜在风险与挑战</div>
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<div class="collapse-content p-6 space-y-4">
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 pl-4">
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<li><strong>技术风险:</strong> BC技术降本速度不及预期；颗粒硅质量争议；钙钛矿商业化进程缓慢。</li>
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<li><strong>商业化风险:</strong> “反内卷”价格同盟脆弱性，可能因需求不济或龙头博弈而瓦解；全球宏观经济与电网消纳问题导致需求不及预期。</li>
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<li><strong>政策与竞争风险:</strong> 供给侧改革政策执行力度不确定；国际贸易壁垒（如美国“双反”）持续构成威胁。</li>
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<li><strong>信息交叉验证风险:</strong> 行业产能统计数据混乱且存在矛盾，投资者需审慎看待单一来源数据；剧烈波动市场中，静态盈利判断极易失效。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
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<input type="radio" name="insight-accordion" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">6. 综合结论与投资启示</div>
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<div class="collapse-content p-6 space-y-4">
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<p><strong>综合结论:</strong> 光伏产业链已进入由基本面驱动的残酷淘汰赛阶段。“反内卷”提价是“止血”手段，但非“治本”良药。投资逻辑需从“水涨船高”的板块式思维，转向精选个股。</p>
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<div>
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-purple-300">最具投资价值的细分环节与方向</h4>
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<ol class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-2 pl-4">
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<li><strong>新技术引领者 (BC电池产业链):</strong> 最具颠覆潜力和alpha机会的方向。核心标的包括电池/组件龙头 (爱旭股份、隆基绿能) 及绑定的设备 (帝尔激光) 和材料。</li>
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<li><strong>辅材领域的“隐形冠军”:</strong> 竞争格局更优、技术壁垒更高的环节可能率先企稳，如光伏银浆 (聚和材料) 和光伏玻璃双寡头 (福莱特)。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>成本极致领先的龙头:</strong> 在出清周期中，拥有最低现金成本的企业最终将受益于行业集中度提升，是“剩者为王”的逻辑。</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-purple-300">需重点跟踪的关键指标</h4>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 pl-4">
|
||
<li><strong>库存周转天数:</strong> 尤其欧洲市场，是真实需求复苏的领先指标。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>各环节产能利用率:</strong> 是供需关系改善的直接证据。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>龙头企业毛利率与现金流:</strong> 是确认盈利拐点的信号。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>BC电池非硅成本:</strong> 验证其相对TOPCon的成本竞争力。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>二三线企业退出信号:</strong> 债务违约、项目终止、被并购等事件。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Price Dynamics Dashboard -->
|
||
<section id="price-dynamics">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-8 w-8" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M13 7h8m0 0v8m0-8l-8 8-4-4-6 6" /></svg>
|
||
产业链价格动态仪表盘
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-8">
|
||
<div id="priceChart" style="width: 100%; height: 500px;"></div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Supporting Data -->
|
||
<section id="supporting-data">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-8 w-8" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M9 17v-2m3 2v-4m3 4v-6m2 10H7a2 2 0 01-2-2V7a2 2 0 012-2h5.586a1 1 0 01.707.293l5.414 5.414a1 1 0 01.293.707V19a2 2 0 01-2 2z" /></svg>
|
||
核心数据支撑
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<div class="space-y-4">
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-arrow glass-card">
|
||
<input type="checkbox" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">新闻数据精要</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content p-4 space-y-2">
|
||
<p><strong>行业趋势：</strong>行业去产能进行中，产业链价格有望筑底，但供需平衡仍需时日。板块估值处历史低位。行业自律“反内卷”成为主线，硅料、硅片率先提价响应。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>市场需求：</strong>国内装机需求动力蓬勃，但短期面临库存高位与需求疲弱双重压力。分布式“抢装潮”曾引发短期价格波动。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>价格动态：</strong>硅料价格在经历谷底后，受“反内卷”影响大幅上调25-35%。硅片、电池片、组件价格随之探涨，但终端传导仍存压力，多个环节盈利估算仍为负。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>政策动态：</strong>国家支持新能源市场准入；地方层面（益阳、江苏、海南）出台政策支持光伏发展与电价竞价；越南允许屋顶光伏余电上网。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-arrow glass-card">
|
||
<input type="checkbox" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">路演观点洞察</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content p-4 space-y-2">
|
||
<p><strong>供需与出清：</strong>供给端加速出清（减产、融资收紧、地方支持退坡）。24年H2盈利修复可期，龙头优势凸显。市场化出清叠加能效标准提升，加速淘汰落后产能。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>技术路线之争：</strong>BC技术被视为下一代核心方向，与TOPCon成本差距缩小，功率优势明显，隆基、爱旭资本开支聚焦BC。HJT在特定场景有结构性机会，但扩产受限。颗粒硅存在质量争议。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>盈利与成本：</strong>产业链价格跌破现金成本后，行业自救开启。硅料报价已覆盖全成本。BC路线的爱旭股份Q2率先扭亏为盈，显示结构性复苏。辅材环节（胶膜、银浆）龙头盈利相对稳定。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>市场信号：</strong>多晶硅期货价格成为市场情绪风向标。“反内卷”下，收储传闻与行业协会限产会议成为重要催化剂。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-arrow glass-card">
|
||
<input type="checkbox" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">研报核心数据</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content p-4 space-y-2">
|
||
<p><strong>产能过剩：</strong>2023年中国光伏各环节有效产能严重过剩，扩产显著降速。2024年行业开启新一轮去产能周期。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>技术迭代：</strong>n型电池(TOPCon+HJT)市占率快速增加。2023年TOPCon市占率达23.0%。BC、钙钛矿等新技术效率记录不断刷新。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>成本结构：</strong>光伏电池约占组件成本的61.2%。辅材中，光伏玻璃（信义、福莱特）和胶膜（福斯特）呈现寡头格局。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>价格周期：</strong>2024年Q2全线跌破生产成本，Q3跌破现金成本。Q3末价格接近止跌企稳，跌幅收窄。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Rise Analysis -->
|
||
<section id="rise-analysis">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-8 w-8" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M17 13l-5 5m0 0l-5-5m5 5V6" /></svg>
|
||
相关个股异动分析
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<div class="space-y-4">
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-arrow glass-card" x-data="{ open: false }">
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium" @click="open = !open">
|
||
中光防雷 (300414) - 2025-07-14 上涨8.77%
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content p-4" x-show="open" x-collapse>
|
||
<p><strong>核心逻辑:</strong> 主要受益于光伏与光模块两大行业的景气度提升，市场预期其防雷产品需求将随之增长。光伏行业供给侧改革预期、浙江光伏成为第一大电源等消息提供了积极的行业背景。同时，光模块行业（中际旭创、光库科技）的高速增长也带动了对通信设备防雷产品的需求预期。机构资金的买入行为与市场乐观情绪共同推动了股价上涨。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-arrow glass-card" x-data="{ open: false }">
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium" @click="open = !open">
|
||
东岳硅材 (300821) - 2025-07-08 上涨10.94%
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content p-4" x-show="open" x-collapse>
|
||
<p><strong>核心逻辑:</strong> 光伏产业链“反内卷”行情爆发，带动上游有机硅板块补涨。核心驱动力包括：1. <strong>政策驱动</strong>：工信部、人民日报等发声治理行业无序竞争。2. <strong>价格驱动</strong>：多晶硅期货涨停，硅料现货报价持续上调至成本线以上。3. <strong>供需改善</strong>：国际巨头陶氏化学宣布关闭部分产能，为国内企业带来出口机遇。多重利好共振，叠加券商全面看多，推动股价大涨。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-arrow glass-card" x-data="{ open: false }">
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium" @click="open = !open">
|
||
合盛硅业 (603260) - 2025-07-08 上涨5.27%
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content p-4" x-show="open" x-collapse>
|
||
<p><strong>核心逻辑:</strong> 与东岳硅材逻辑类似，直接受益于光伏行业反内卷政策与价格修复共振。作为硅料生产企业，公司直接受益于：1. <strong>政策环境改善</strong>：国家层面密集发声反内卷，行业自律减产。2. <strong>硅料价格大幅上涨</strong>：多晶硅期货涨停，现货价格回归成本线之上。3. <strong>产业链传导预期</strong>：价格自上而下传导，带动整个有机硅板块走强，公司作为龙头受到资金追捧。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-arrow glass-card" x-data="{ open: false }">
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium" @click="open = !open">
|
||
锴威特 (688693) - 2025-10-24 上涨5.43%
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content p-4" x-show="open" x-collapse>
|
||
<p><strong>核心逻辑:</strong> 典型的“行业β修复”+“产业链情绪扩散”驱动行情。核心催化剂是光伏龙头通威股份发布超预期的Q3业绩修复信号（环比大幅减亏、经营现金流大幅回正），引发市场对光伏行业“周期触底、景气反转”的强烈预期。锴威特作为光伏逆变器核心部件功率半导体（IGBT/MOSFET）的供应商，与光伏行业景气度高度相关，因此在主线确立后，作为高弹性标的获得资金追捧。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock List -->
|
||
<section id="stock-list">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-8 w-8" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M9 12h6m-6 4h6m2 5H7a2 2 0 01-2-2V5a2 2 0 012-2h5.586a1 1 0 01.707.293l5.414 5.414a1 1 0 01.293.707V19a2 2 0 01-2 2z" /></svg>
|
||
产业链核心标的
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-4 overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<div class="daisy-table w-full">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-fui text-cyan-300 p-4">中游：电池片 (技术迭代核心)</h3>
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>技术路线</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑 / 产能</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601012" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">隆基绿能</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag bg-purple-500/20 text-purple-300 border-purple-400/50">BC电池</span></td>
|
||
<td>BC电池(HPBC)，已建产能29GW，规划74GW，市场领导者</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600732" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">爱旭股份</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag bg-purple-500/20 text-purple-300 border-purple-400/50">BC电池</span></td>
|
||
<td>BC电池(ABC)，6.5GW，在建/规划48.5GW，技术先行者</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688223" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">晶科能源</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag bg-blue-500/20 text-blue-300 border-blue-400/50">Topcon电池</span> <span class="tag bg-purple-500/20 text-purple-300 border-purple-400/50">BC电池 (TBC)</span></td>
|
||
<td>Topcon电池龙头 (56GW E产能)，BC技术中试，保持技术跟随</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002865" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">钧达股份</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag bg-blue-500/20 text-blue-300 border-blue-400/50">Topcon电池</span> <span class="tag bg-purple-500/20 text-purple-300 border-purple-400/50">BC电池 (TBC)</span></td>
|
||
<td>纯粹Topcon电池供应商 (44GW E产能)，弹性大，BC技术中试</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688599" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">天合光能</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag bg-blue-500/20 text-blue-300 border-blue-400/50">Topcon电池</span></td>
|
||
<td>一体化组件龙头，Topcon电池产能40GW</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002459" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">晶澳科技</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag bg-blue-500/20 text-blue-300 border-blue-400/50">Topcon电池</span></td>
|
||
<td>一体化组件龙头，Topcon电池产能57.3GW</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300118" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">东方日升</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag bg-green-500/20 text-green-300 border-green-400/50">HJT电池</span></td>
|
||
<td>HJT技术布局，(2023年E产能)9GW</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002514" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">宝馨科技</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag bg-yellow-500/20 text-yellow-300 border-yellow-400/50">钙钛矿电池</span></td>
|
||
<td>钙钛矿电池片，新技术方向</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="daisy-table w-full mt-8">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-fui text-cyan-300 p-4">下游与辅材 (格局优化环节)</h3>
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>细分领域</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑 / 市场地位</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300274" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">阳光电源</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag">逆变器</span></td>
|
||
<td>全球逆变器龙头，2022年全球市占率22%</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601865" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">福莱特</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag">光伏玻璃</span></td>
|
||
<td>光伏玻璃双寡头之一，2022年产能占比23.2%</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603806" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">福斯特</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag">光伏胶膜</span></td>
|
||
<td>光伏胶膜绝对龙头，2022年市占率43%</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688680" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">海优新材</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag">光伏胶膜</span></td>
|
||
<td>光伏胶膜核心企业，2022年市占率14%</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300842" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">帝科股份</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag">光伏银浆</span></td>
|
||
<td>光伏银浆龙头，技术壁垒高，2021年格局19%</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002079" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">苏州固锝</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag">光伏银浆</span></td>
|
||
<td>光伏银浆核心企业，2021年格局9%</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688408" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">中信博</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag">光伏支架</span></td>
|
||
<td>光伏支架龙头，技术壁垒高，2022年产能12.22GW</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="daisy-table w-full mt-8">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-fui text-cyan-300 p-4">上游与设备 (周期与技术驱动)</h3>
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>细分领域</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑 / 市场地位</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600438" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">通威股份</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag">硅料/电池片</span></td>
|
||
<td>硅料龙头，成本优势显著，同时布局BC电池研发</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603688" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">石英股份</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag">石英砂</span></td>
|
||
<td>高纯石英砂龙头，硅片环节关键耗材，壁垒极高</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=001269" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">欧晶科技</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag">石英坩埚</span></td>
|
||
<td>石英坩埚龙头，单晶拉棒核心耗材</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300316" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-300">晶盛机电</a></td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag">光伏设备</span></td>
|
||
<td>单晶炉设备龙头，深度受益于硅片环节扩产与技术迭代</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>帝尔激光</td>
|
||
<td><span class="tag">光伏设备</span></td>
|
||
<td>激光设备龙头，深度受益于电池技术迭代（尤其BC）</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<footer class="text-center py-8 mt-12 border-t border-gray-700/50">
|
||
<p class="text-gray-500">报告生成时间: <span x-text="new Date().toLocaleString('zh-CN')"></span></p>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">数据来源：新闻、路演、研报、价小前Insight。本报告内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。</p>
|
||
</footer>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<script>
|
||
const chartDom = document.getElementById('priceChart');
|
||
const myChart = echarts.init(chartDom, 'dark');
|
||
|
||
// Extracted and synthesized price data from news
|
||
const priceData = [
|
||
{ date: '2024-09-18', silicon: 37.5, wafer: 1.15, cell: 0.28, module: 0.73 },
|
||
{ date: '2024-11-21', silicon: 36.0, wafer: 1.12, cell: 0.27, module: 0.72 },
|
||
{ date: '2024-12-12', silicon: 36.0, wafer: 1.15, cell: 0.28, module: 0.71 },
|
||
{ date: '2025-01-09', silicon: 42.0, wafer: 1.18, cell: 0.29, module: 0.69 },
|
||
{ date: '2025-01-23', silicon: 42.0, wafer: 1.18, cell: 0.29, module: 0.69 },
|
||
{ date: '2025-02-13', silicon: 43.0, wafer: 1.15, cell: 0.29, module: 0.68 },
|
||
{ date: '2025-02-27', silicon: 43.0, wafer: 1.15, cell: 0.30, module: 0.70 },
|
||
{ date: '2025-03-24', silicon: 43.5, wafer: 1.16, cell: 0.30, module: 0.72 },
|
||
{ date: '2025-05-15', silicon: 35.0, wafer: 0.88, cell: 0.23, module: 0.66 },
|
||
{ date: '2025-07-09', silicon: 48.0, wafer: 1.00, cell: 0.26, module: 0.68 },
|
||
{ date: '2025-07-24', silicon: 51.0, wafer: 1.10, cell: 0.27, module: 0.69 },
|
||
{ date: '2025-10-23', silicon: 50.0, wafer: 1.10, cell: 0.26, module: 0.69 }
|
||
];
|
||
|
||
const dates = priceData.map(item => item.date);
|
||
const siliconPrices = priceData.map(item => item.silicon);
|
||
const waferPrices = priceData.map(item => item.wafer);
|
||
const cellPrices = priceData.map(item => item.cell);
|
||
const modulePrices = priceData.map(item => item.module);
|
||
|
||
const option = {
|
||
backgroundColor: 'transparent',
|
||
title: {
|
||
text: '光伏产业链主要环节价格走势',
|
||
subtext: '数据综合自新闻与研报',
|
||
left: 'center',
|
||
textStyle: {
|
||
color: '#e0e0ff',
|
||
fontFamily: 'Space Mono, monospace'
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
tooltip: {
|
||
trigger: 'axis',
|
||
backgroundColor: 'rgba(20, 20, 40, 0.8)',
|
||
borderColor: '#00ffff',
|
||
textStyle: {
|
||
color: '#e0e0ff'
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
legend: {
|
||
data: ['硅料 (元/kg)', '硅片 (元/片)', '电池片 (元/W)', '组件 (元/W)'],
|
||
bottom: 10,
|
||
textStyle: {
|
||
color: '#c0c0ff'
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
grid: {
|
||
left: '3%',
|
||
right: '4%',
|
||
bottom: '15%',
|
||
containLabel: true
|
||
},
|
||
xAxis: {
|
||
type: 'category',
|
||
boundaryGap: false,
|
||
data: dates,
|
||
axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#8392A5' } }
|
||
},
|
||
yAxis: [
|
||
{
|
||
type: 'value',
|
||
name: '硅料 (元/kg)',
|
||
position: 'left',
|
||
axisLine: { show: true, lineStyle: { color: '#00ffff' } },
|
||
splitLine: { lineStyle: { type: 'dashed', color: 'rgba(131, 146, 165, 0.3)' } }
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
type: 'value',
|
||
name: '硅片/电池/组件',
|
||
position: 'right',
|
||
axisLine: { show: true, lineStyle: { color: '#ff00ff' } },
|
||
splitLine: { show: false }
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
series: [
|
||
{
|
||
name: '硅料 (元/kg)',
|
||
type: 'line',
|
||
smooth: true,
|
||
symbol: 'circle',
|
||
yAxisIndex: 0,
|
||
itemStyle: { color: '#00ffff' },
|
||
lineStyle: {
|
||
width: 3,
|
||
shadowColor: 'rgba(0, 255, 255, 0.5)',
|
||
shadowBlur: 10
|
||
},
|
||
data: siliconPrices
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
name: '硅片 (元/片)',
|
||
type: 'line',
|
||
smooth: true,
|
||
symbol: 'circle',
|
||
yAxisIndex: 1,
|
||
itemStyle: { color: '#00ff00' },
|
||
lineStyle: {
|
||
width: 2,
|
||
shadowColor: 'rgba(0, 255, 0, 0.5)',
|
||
shadowBlur: 8
|
||
},
|
||
data: waferPrices
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
name: '电池片 (元/W)',
|
||
type: 'line',
|
||
smooth: true,
|
||
symbol: 'circle',
|
||
yAxisIndex: 1,
|
||
itemStyle: { color: '#ffff00' },
|
||
lineStyle: {
|
||
width: 2,
|
||
shadowColor: 'rgba(255, 255, 0, 0.5)',
|
||
shadowBlur: 8
|
||
},
|
||
data: cellPrices
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
name: '组件 (元/W)',
|
||
type: 'line',
|
||
smooth: true,
|
||
symbol: 'circle',
|
||
yAxisIndex: 1,
|
||
itemStyle: { color: '#ff00ff' },
|
||
lineStyle: {
|
||
width: 2,
|
||
shadowColor: 'rgba(255, 0, 255, 0.5)',
|
||
shadowBlur: 8
|
||
},
|
||
data: modulePrices
|
||
}
|
||
]
|
||
};
|
||
|
||
myChart.setOption(option);
|
||
window.addEventListener('resize', myChart.resize);
|
||
</script>
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html> |