352 lines
23 KiB
HTML
352 lines
23 KiB
HTML
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<header class="text-center mb-12">
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<h1 class="fui-header gradient-text">北交所重组预期</h1>
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<p class="text-slate-400 mt-2 text-lg">深度研究报告</p>
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<div class="mt-4 text-xs text-slate-500 tracking-wider">
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<p>北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent:“价小前投研”</p>
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<p>本报告为AI合成数据,据此投资,风险自担。</p>
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<!-- Insight Section -->
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<section class="bento-item bento-item-main glass-card p-6 md:p-8 fui-glow">
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<h2 class="section-title gradient-text">核心洞察:从政策驱动到价值发现</h2>
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<div class="prose-custom max-w-none text-sm md:text-base leading-relaxed">
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<h3>0. 概念事件:三重共振下的主线形成</h3>
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<p>“北交所重组预期”概念并非由单一事件引爆,而是在<strong>政策顶层设计、交易所积极推动、市场环境变化</strong>三重因素共振下,逐步形成并强化的市场主线。关键节点包括:<strong>IPO收紧</strong>背景铺垫、<strong>“并购六条”政策定调</strong>(2023年9月)、<strong>北交所专项座谈会</strong>迅速响应(2024年10月)、<strong>五新隧装首单混合支付并购案</strong>树立标杆(2024年11月),以及<strong>“小额快速”审核机制等制度正式落地</strong>(2025年5月),标志着政策支持从“精神喊话”进入“规则落地”阶段。</p>
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<h3>1. 核心观点摘要</h3>
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<p>“北交所重组预期”正从政策驱动的<strong>主题炒作阶段</strong>,加速迈向<strong>基本面驱动的价值发现阶段</strong>。其核心驱动力源于政策红利(天时)、市场环境(地利)与企业内生需求(人和)的“三重共振”。当前,市场已形成高度共识,但真正的潜力在于从“小步快走”的现金并购,向更复杂的产业整合与价值重塑演进,预计2025年将是北交所并购重组的“大年”。</p>
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<h3>2. 核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>天时:政策强力驱动与制度松绑。</strong>“并购六条”及配套规则为创新型中小企业量身定制了重组工具箱,关键突破点包括:允许收购<strong>优质未盈利资产</strong>、引入<strong>“小额快速”</strong>与<strong>“简易审核”</strong>程序提升效率、支持<strong>分期支付</strong>等多元化工具增加灵活性。</li>
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<li><strong>地利:市场环境的结构性变迁。</strong>IPO收紧倒逼PE/VC退出渠道转向并购,为市场提供了丰富的优质标的池。北交所自身聚集大量“专精特新”企业,背后更有6000余家新三板企业作为“并购洼地”,且近50%公司手握超1亿元现金,具备并购实力。</li>
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<li><strong>人和:企业的内生增长与扩张需求。</strong>北交所公司多处于成长期,通过并购是实现“弯道超车”的最有效路径。产业逻辑驱动的并购占比<strong>超过90%</strong>,具备坚实的基本面支撑。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3>3. 关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h3>
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<p><strong>近期催化剂:</strong>五新隧装等标志性案例成功落地、首单适用新规的“小额快速”案例出现、更多地方政府配套政策出台。</p>
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<p><strong>长期发展路径:</strong></p>
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<ol class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-2">
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<li><strong>第一阶段(当前-2025年中):</strong>“小步快走”现金并购潮,数量爆发期。</li>
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<li><strong>第二阶段(2025下半年-2026年):</strong>“混合支付”与“类借壳”兴起,交易体量扩大。</li>
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<li><strong>第三阶段(长期):</strong>产业整合者诞生,出现利用资本平台进行连续并购的细分行业龙头。</li>
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</ol>
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<h3>4. 产业链与核心公司深度剖析</h3>
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<p>北交所并购呈现多种逻辑并存的“生态图谱”:<strong>横向整合</strong>(如凯德石英)、<strong>纵向整合</strong>(如佳先股份)、<strong>跨界转型</strong>(如流金科技)和<strong>控制权变更</strong>(如微创光电、海希通讯)。其中,五新隧装是“领导者/标杆”,凯德石英是“验证者/实干家”,而海希通讯等则是想象空间巨大的“颠覆者/潜力股”。</p>
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<h3>5. 潜在风险与挑战</h3>
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<p>需警惕并购后的<strong>整合风险</strong>、对标的<strong>估值过高风险</strong>、政策执行力度不及预期、以及优质标的竞争加剧等挑战。特别是,“估值偏低制约换股并购”是当前乐观情绪下的一个关键现实约束。</p>
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<h3>6. 综合结论与投资启示</h3>
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<p>概念已进入<strong>政策红利兑现与基本面驱动并存的“黄金窗口期”</strong>。最具投资价值的细分方向包括:产业协同驱动、确定性高的<strong>“实干派”</strong>;以及控制权变更驱动、股价弹性大的<strong>“潜力派”</strong>。需重点跟踪标杆案例进展、并购交易数据(尤其是股份支付占比变化)及并购后业绩兑现情况。</p>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- ECharts Chart Section -->
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<section class="bento-item bento-item-chart glass-card p-6 flex flex-col fui-glow">
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<h2 class="section-title gradient-text">并购类型生态图谱</h2>
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<div id="m-a-types-chart" class="flex-grow w-full h-full min-h-[300px]"></div>
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</section>
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<!-- Supporting Data Section -->
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<section class="bento-item bento-item-data glass-card p-6 space-y-4 fui-glow">
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<h2 class="section-title gradient-text">多源数据情报聚合</h2>
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<!-- News Data -->
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus border border-slate-700 bg-slate-900/50">
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<input type="radio" name="data-accordion" checked="checked" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">新闻数据</div>
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<div class="collapse-content text-slate-300 text-sm">
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<ul class="space-y-2 list-disc list-inside">
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<li><strong>政策一体适用:</strong>证监会《关于深化上市公司并购重组市场改革的意见》(“并购六条”)明确一体适用于北交所。</li>
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<li><strong>官方积极推动:</strong>北交所于2024年10月17日举办券商、上市公司专项座谈会,宣讲政策精神。</li>
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<li><strong>市场活跃度提升:</strong>今年以来十余家公司推出并购计划,呈现“小步快走”特点,平均交易额5700万元。</li>
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<li><strong>券商高度预期:</strong>机构普遍认为并购重组是2025年北交所核心投资主线,是提升公司质量的“加速器”。</li>
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<li><strong>标杆案例:</strong>五新隧装成为首单“股份+现金”混合支付并购案例,创远信科、奥迪威等概念股股价大幅上涨。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Roadshow Data -->
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus border border-slate-700 bg-slate-900/50">
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<input type="radio" name="data-accordion" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">路演纪要</div>
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<div class="collapse-content text-slate-300 text-sm">
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<ul class="space-y-2 list-disc list-inside">
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<li><strong>核心投资主线:</strong>路演普遍共识,并购重组是2025年北交所最核心投资主线,基于“天时、地利、人和”三重共振。</li>
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<li><strong>规则重大修订:</strong>新设重组简易审核程序、引入小额快速审核机制、优化锁定期规则、缩短审核周期。</li>
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<li><strong>并购驱动力:</strong>内生动力(成长需求+现金充足)与外生动力(IPO收紧倒逼退出渠道)并存。</li>
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<li><strong>标的资源丰富:</strong>北交所上市公司+6000余家新三板企业构成庞大标的池。</li>
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<li><strong>成功案例验证:</strong>凯德石英收购沈阳新贝,2023年贡献净利润46.8%,显著验证并购逻辑。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Research Report Data -->
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus border border-slate-700 bg-slate-900/50">
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<input type="radio" name="data-accordion" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">券商研报</div>
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<div class="collapse-content text-slate-300 text-sm">
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<ul class="space-y-2 list-disc list-inside">
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<li><strong>政策深度解读:</strong>研报普遍认为“并购六条”将显著提升监管包容度、交易效率,支持北交所公司收购优质未盈利资产。</li>
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<li><strong>五新隧装案例分析:</strong>作为“并购六条”后首单发行股份收购资产项目,具有里程碑意义,有望开启混合支付并购新浪潮。</li>
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<li><strong>规则正式落地:</strong>2025年5月北交所正式修订重组规则,引入“小额快速”和“简易审核”机制,被视为政策落地的关键一步。</li>
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<li><strong>公司内在动力:</strong>研报指出,北交所公司现金充裕、专精特新属性强,具备迫切的强链补链需求。</li>
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<li><strong>风险提示:</strong>部分研报也提示了并购整合不及预期、估值过高、“忽悠式”重组等潜在风险。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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</main>
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<!-- Stock Table Section -->
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<section class="mt-12">
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<div class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="section-title gradient-text">核心概念股梳理</h2>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="table table-zebra w-full text-xs md:text-sm">
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<thead>
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<tr class="text-slate-300">
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<th>股票名称</th>
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<th>股票代码</th>
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<th>重组原因 / 核心逻辑</th>
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<th>其他标签</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<!-- Data will be populated here -->
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</tbody>
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</table>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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</div>
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<script>
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const stockData = [
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{ name: '海希通讯', code: '831305', reason: '公司控股股东变更为辰隆控股,辰隆数字在第三代半导体SIC布局,且高管有台积电、联电背景,存在优质项目注入预期。', tags: '核心股, 控制权变更' },
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||
{ name: '微创光电', code: '430198', reason: '湖北交投集团成为控股股东,利用国资资源优势,从产品销售转向智能交通解决方案,业务价值重塑。', tags: '涨停股, 国资入股, 控制权变更' },
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{ name: '五新隧装', code: '835174', reason: '拟通过发行股份并支付现金的方式收购五新重工、兴中科技,为“并购六条”后首单混合支付并购案,具标杆意义。', tags: '标杆案例, 混合支付'},
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{ name: '凯德石英', code: '835179', reason: '于2022年成功收购沈阳芯贝伊尔70%股权,完善半导体行业布局,并购后业绩验证效果显著。', tags: '核心股, 横向整合' },
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{ name: '佳先股份', code: '430489', reason: '收购沙丰新材料实现产业链垂直整合,并购买英特美30%股权切入半导体光刻胶新赛道。', tags: '核心股, 纵向/跨界整合' },
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||
{ name: '旭杰科技', code: '836149', reason: '拟以支付现金方式收购中新旭德新能源不低于47%股权。', tags: '核心股, 光伏' },
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||
{ name: '流金科技', code: '834021', reason: '收购贡爵微,进入微波/毫米波芯片领域,寻求第二增长曲线。', tags: '核心股, 跨界转型' },
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||
{ name: '同享科技', code: '839167', reason: '并购苏州同丰达新能源有限公司15%股权。', tags: '涨停股, 光伏' },
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||
{ name: '天宏锂电', code: '873152', reason: '并购深圳市三合能源有限公司20.00%股权。', tags: '涨停股, 锂电池, 储能' },
|
||
{ name: '艾能聚', code: '834770', reason: '合肥浙邦重组预期,光伏领域整合。', tags: '涨停股, 光伏' },
|
||
{ name: '鑫汇科', code: '831167', reason: '米技炫尚重组预期。', tags: '涨停股, 消费电子, 芯片' },
|
||
{ name: '海泰新能', code: '835985', reason: '并购张家口海泰氢能科技有限公司部分股权。', tags: '核心股, 氢能源' },
|
||
{ name: '海达尔', code: '836699', reason: '实控人家族IPO撤回,有望实现光伏资产重组预期。', tags: '核心股, 光伏' },
|
||
{ name: '艾融软件', code: '830799', reason: '拟以1.1亿元收购北京信立合创100%股权。', tags: '核心股, 软件开发, AI' },
|
||
{ name: '吉冈精密', code: '836720', reason: '拟收购帝柯精密零部件,共享客户资源,横向整合。', tags: '核心股, 汽车零部件' },
|
||
{ name: '阿为特', code: '873693', reason: '拟收购德国Keuerleber GmbH 75%股份,拓展海外机器人业务。', tags: '核心股, 机器人' },
|
||
{ name: '东和新材', code: '839792', reason: '正在筹划收购海城海鸣矿业70%股权 (注:研报曾提及终止,后又有新进展)。', tags: '核心股, 耐火材料' },
|
||
{ name: '骏创科技', code: '833533', reason: '拟收购Junchuang North America Inc 4.77%股权。', tags: '核心股, 汽车零部件' },
|
||
{ name: '中航泰达', code: '836263', reason: '购买包钢节能34.00%的股权。', tags: '核心股, 环境治理' },
|
||
{ name: '润农节水', code: '830964', reason: '湖北国资入股,存在资源整合预期。', tags: '农业, 水利, 国资入股' },
|
||
{ name: '纬达光电', code: '839556', reason: '北交国资重组股,具备OLED、AI眼镜等概念,存在并购提升竞争力的可能性。', tags: '北交国资重组股, OLED' },
|
||
{ name: '民士达', code: '833394', reason: '超材料基材供应商,部分股权被烟台泰和新材等并购。', tags: '超材料' }
|
||
];
|
||
|
||
document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function () {
|
||
// Populate Stock Table
|
||
const tableBody = document.querySelector('table tbody');
|
||
stockData.forEach(stock => {
|
||
const codeLink = (stock.code && stock.code.length === 6)
|
||
? `<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=${stock.code}" target="_blank" class="text-blue-400 hover:text-blue-300 transition-colors">${stock.code}</a>`
|
||
: `${stock.code || 'N/A'}`;
|
||
|
||
const tagsHtml = stock.tags.split(',').map(tag => `<span class="badge badge-outline badge-info mr-1 mb-1">${tag.trim()}</span>`).join('');
|
||
|
||
const row = `
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="font-semibold text-slate-100">${stock.name}</td>
|
||
<td>${codeLink}</td>
|
||
<td>${stock.reason}</td>
|
||
<td>${tagsHtml}</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
`;
|
||
tableBody.innerHTML += row;
|
||
});
|
||
|
||
// Initialize ECharts
|
||
const chartDom = document.getElementById('m-a-types-chart');
|
||
if(chartDom) {
|
||
const myChart = echarts.init(chartDom);
|
||
const option = {
|
||
tooltip: {
|
||
trigger: 'item',
|
||
backgroundColor: 'rgba(15, 23, 42, 0.8)',
|
||
borderColor: '#334155',
|
||
textStyle: {
|
||
color: '#e2e8f0'
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
legend: {
|
||
bottom: '5%',
|
||
left: 'center',
|
||
textStyle: {
|
||
color: '#94a3b8'
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
series: [
|
||
{
|
||
name: '并购类型',
|
||
type: 'pie',
|
||
radius: ['40%', '70%'],
|
||
avoidLabelOverlap: false,
|
||
itemStyle: {
|
||
borderRadius: 10,
|
||
borderColor: '#0f172a',
|
||
borderWidth: 4
|
||
},
|
||
label: {
|
||
show: false,
|
||
position: 'center'
|
||
},
|
||
emphasis: {
|
||
label: {
|
||
show: true,
|
||
fontSize: 20,
|
||
fontWeight: 'bold',
|
||
color: '#f8fafc'
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
labelLine: {
|
||
show: false
|
||
},
|
||
data: [
|
||
{ value: 2, name: '横向整合' },
|
||
{ value: 1, name: '纵向整合' },
|
||
{ value: 2, name: '跨界转型' },
|
||
{ value: 2, name: '控制权变更' }
|
||
],
|
||
color: ['#3b82f6', '#8b5cf6', '#ec4899', '#22d3ee']
|
||
}
|
||
]
|
||
};
|
||
myChart.setOption(option);
|
||
window.addEventListener('resize', () => myChart.resize());
|
||
}
|
||
});
|
||
</script>
|
||
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html> |