398 lines
26 KiB
HTML
398 lines
26 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>深度行研 | 固态电池-硅基负极</title>
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<header class="text-center mb-10" x-data="{ loaded: false }" x-init="setTimeout(() => loaded = true, 200)">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-5xl font-bold gradient-text mb-2 transition-opacity duration-1000" :class="loaded ? 'opacity-100' : 'opacity-0'">
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深度行研报告：固态电池-硅基负极
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</h1>
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<p class="text-base-content/70 transition-opacity duration-1000 delay-200" :class="loaded ? 'opacity-100' : 'opacity-0'">
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北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研”呈现
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</p>
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<p class="text-xs text-base-content/50 mt-2 transition-opacity duration-1000 delay-300" :class="loaded ? 'opacity-100' : 'opacity-0'">
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本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。
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</p>
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</header>
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<main class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 lg:grid-cols-4 gap-6" x-data>
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<!-- Insight -->
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<section class="bento-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:col-span-3 lg:col-span-4 row-span-2">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-primary mb-4">概念Insight：产业化初期向规模化应用的过渡</h2>
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<div class="prose max-w-none prose-invert prose-p:text-base-content/80 prose-li:text-base-content/80">
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<p class="font-semibold text-primary-content/90">“固态电池-硅基负极”概念正处在一个从“0到1”的产业化初期向“1到N”的规模化应用过渡的关键阶段。其核心驱动力在于解决当前锂电池的能量密度焦虑，尤其是在半固态电池和高端消费电子领域已找到明确的商业化落脚点。然而，市场对其在全固态电池中的长期定位存在预期差，其“过渡方案”的属性与锂金属负极的“终极方案”潜力构成了该概念最核心的长期风险。</p>
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<h3 class="text-xl text-secondary">核心逻辑与市场认知</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>性能驱动：</strong>现有石墨负极（理论容量372mAh/g）已近天花板，无法满足高续航需求。硅基负极以其近10倍的理论容量（4200mAh/g）成为必然选择。</li>
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<li><strong>技术可行性：</strong>相较于锂金属负极，硅基负极（硅碳/硅氧）产业链相对成熟，通过多孔碳骨架、碳包覆等技术初步解决了核心的膨胀问题，具备了商业化基础。华为1987mAh/g比容量的专利即是例证。</li>
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<li><strong>商业化场景牵引：</strong>消费电子已成为技术“先锋队”，硅含量从6% (小米14U) 快速提升至12% (vivo X Fold 5)，乃至25% (荣耀 Magic V5)。同时，半固态电池明确将硅基负极作为主材，打开动力市场空间。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3 class="text-xl text-secondary">关键预期差分析</h3>
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<p>市场的普遍认知与产业实际进展之间存在一个关键预期差：<strong>对硅基负极终局地位的判断。</strong></p>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>市场共识 (来自新闻/研报):</strong> 倾向于将硅基负极视为固态电池的“标配”和核心增量，认为固态电解质可以抑制硅的膨胀。</li>
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<li><strong>潜在预期差 (来自路演数据):</strong> 提出尖锐观点——在全固态电池体系中，由于整车Pack能承受的恒定压力有限（≤2 MPa），硅基负极300%的巨大膨胀使其在该压力下循环寿命严重不足（<500次）。相比之下，锂金属负极可能是高能量密度全固态电池的<strong>“唯一可行解”</strong>。</li>
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<li><strong>分析结论：</strong>市场可能高估了硅基负极在<strong>远期（2028年后）全固态电池</strong>中的不可替代性，而低估了其作为<strong>中期（当前至2028年）半固态电池核心方案</strong>的确定性。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3 class="text-xl text-secondary">未来发展路径与催化剂</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>近期 (2024-2025):</strong> 消费电子引领，半固态初步上车。关注荣耀等新机型销量、7月和9月产业大会、以及石大胜华/璞泰来等产能落地进度。</li>
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<li><strong>中期 (2026-2028):</strong> 半固态规模化应用。关注宁德时代、比亚迪等巨头在2027年左右的产业化进展。</li>
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<li><strong>远期 (2028+):</strong> 面临锂金属负极的挑战。在追求>400Wh/kg的极致能量密度领域，硅基负极可能因膨胀问题受限，市场份额或面临侵蚀。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3 class="text-xl text-secondary">风险与挑战</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>技术风险：</strong>体积膨胀是根本性制约，可能导致其在全固态电池低压环境下的“致命缺陷”，市场天花板或低于预期。</li>
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<li><strong>商业化风险：</strong>成本高昂（早期售价60-80万/吨，是石墨十倍以上），大规模量产的稳定性与降本路径尚不明朗。</li>
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<li><strong>竞争风险：</strong>锂金属负极是最大的长期颠覆性风险。一旦其界面稳定性取得突破，可能直接跨过硅基负极成为终极选择。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 核心动态 -->
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<section class="bento-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:col-span-2 lg:col-span-2">
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<h2 class="text-xl font-bold text-accent mb-4">核心动态与技术突破</h2>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-base-content/80 list-disc list-inside">
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<li><strong>华为专利引领：</strong>公告2项硅基负极专利，其中“多孔碳骨架+气相沉积”的硅碳路线性能更优，比容量达1987mAh/g，首效90%。</li>
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<li><strong>赣锋锂业双线布局：</strong>同步推进“硅基与锂金属负极”双路线，硅基体系已实现320-450Wh/kg产品梯度，验证了产业可行性。</li>
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<li><strong>终端应用加速：</strong>消费电子旗舰机硅含量竞赛升级，从小米的6%跃升至vivo的12%，再到荣耀预告的25%，验证产业链成熟度。</li>
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<li><strong>半固态已上车：</strong>极氪等车型已小规模应用半固态电池，明确采用添加比例10%-15%的硅基负极。</li>
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<li><strong>关键辅材重要性凸显：</strong>多孔碳（元力股份）、PAA粘接剂（鹿山新材/日播时尚）、单壁碳纳米管（道氏技术/天奈科技）等环节价值凸显。</li>
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</ul>
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</section>
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<!-- 市场规模预测 -->
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<section class="bento-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:col-span-1 lg:col-span-2">
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<h2 class="text-xl font-bold text-accent mb-4">全球硅基负极市场规模预测</h2>
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<div id="market-size-chart" class="w-full h-56"></div>
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</section>
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<!-- 产业链图谱 -->
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<section class="bento-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:col-span-3 lg:col-span-4">
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<h2 class="text-xl font-bold text-info mb-4">产业链核心玩家图谱</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6 text-sm">
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-info/80 border-b border-info/30 pb-1 mb-2">上游：核心原材料</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-1">
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<li><strong>多孔碳:</strong> 元力股份, 金博股份, 圣泉集团</li>
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<li><strong>硅烷气 (CVD):</strong> 硅烷科技</li>
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<li><strong>硅粉:</strong> 博迁新材</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-info/80 border-b border-info/30 pb-1 mb-2">中游：负极及辅助材料</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-1">
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<li><strong>硅碳/硅氧负极:</strong> 贝特瑞(龙头), 璞泰来, 杉杉股份, 石大胜华, 道氏技术</li>
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<li><strong>粘接剂(PAA):</strong> 鹿山新材, 日播时尚(茵地乐)</li>
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<li><strong>导电剂(CNT):</strong> 天奈科技, 道氏技术</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-info/80 border-b border-info/30 pb-1 mb-2">下游：电池与终端</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-1">
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<li><strong>电池厂商:</strong> 赣锋锂业, 宁德时代, 卫蓝科技, 清陶能源</li>
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<li><strong>终端品牌:</strong> 华为, vivo, 荣耀, 小米, 蔚来汽车</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="mt-4 p-4 bg-base-100/30 rounded-2xl">
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<p class="font-bold text-base-content/90">投资启示：</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-base-content/80 mt-1">中短期增长路径清晰，首选一体化负极龙头(如<strong>贝特瑞</strong>)享确定性，核心上游材料(如<strong>元力股份</strong>的多孔碳)享高弹性，专用辅助材料(如<strong>日播时尚</strong>的PAA粘接剂)为低风险“卖铲人”。</p>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 近期异动个股分析 -->
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<section class="bento-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:col-span-3 lg:col-span-4">
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<div class="collapse collapse-arrow bg-base-200/20">
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<input type="checkbox" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-warning">
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近期异动个股深度解析 (点击展开)
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</div>
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<div class="collapse-content">
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<div class="space-y-4 prose max-w-none prose-invert prose-p:text-base-content/80 prose-li:text-base-content/80">
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<div>
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold">合盛硅业 (603260)</h4>
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<p><strong>上涨驱动：</strong>硅碳负极在消费电子（vivo/荣耀新机）和固态电池（赣锋锂业公告）领域的应用加速，为公司硅基材料打开新的增长空间，叠加化工板块反弹和公司自身良好基本面，形成共振。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold">日播时尚 (603196)</h4>
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<p><strong>上涨驱动：</strong>核心逻辑在于拟收购PAA粘结剂龙头“茵地乐”。随着硅负极在电池中用量提升，对专用粘结剂的需求将数倍增长。市场预期公司将从传统服装转型为新能源材料，带来估值重塑。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold">誉辰智能 (688638)</h4>
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<p><strong>上涨驱动：</strong>事件驱动型上涨。清陶能源公示“纳米硅碳复合负极成套设备”招标，市场将其直接映射到已向清陶小批量供货的誉辰智能，形成对固态电池设备需求的强烈预期。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold">英联股份 (002846) & 胜利精密 (002426)</h4>
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<p><strong>上涨驱动：</strong>这两家公司代表了长期竞争路线——锂金属负极。其上涨反映了市场对固态电池终极路线的布局和博弈。英联股份的铜锂复合负极送样通过短期测试，胜利精密在金属负极制备工艺上获机构认可，均触发了市场预期。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- 股票列表 -->
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<section class="bento-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:col-span-3 lg:col-span-4">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-success mb-4">相关概念股票池</h2>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="table table-zebra-zebra table-sm w-full">
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<thead class="text-base-content/90">
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<tr>
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<th class="w-1/6">股票名称</th>
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<th class="w-1/6">股票代码</th>
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<th class="w-2/3">核心逻辑</th>
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<th class="w-1/6">相关标签</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<!-- 硅基负极产品 -->
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<tr class="bg-success/10"><td colspan="4" class="font-bold text-center">硅基负极产品 (Silicon-based Anode Products)</td></tr>
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<tr>
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<td>贝特瑞</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=835185" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">835185</a></td>
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<td>行业龙头，硅基负极有效产能达5000吨/年，CVD硅碳负极获国际大客户认可，预计2025年批量供应。</td>
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<td>硅碳负极, 量产供货</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>中国宝安</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000009" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">000009</a></td>
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<td>核心子公司贝特瑞（持股66.22%）为硅基负极龙头，产能5000吨/年。</td>
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<td>硅碳负极, 量产供货</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>杉杉股份</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600884" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">600884</a></td>
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<td>宁波硅基产线具备量产能力，新型硅碳产品已获海内外头部客户认证并批量交付；同时布局硅氧负极。</td>
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<td>硅碳负极, 量产供货</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>璞泰来</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603659" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">603659</a></td>
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<td>传统负极龙头，安徽硅碳基地预计2025年5月起试产（400吨/年），与华为合作申请专利。</td>
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<td>硅碳负极, 量产供货</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>石大胜华</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603026" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">603026</a></td>
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<td>现有1000吨/年高首效型硅碳产线，已向赣锋等客户提供百公斤级样品，客户认证达B样。</td>
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<td>硅碳负极, 量产供货</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>道氏技术</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300409" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">300409</a></td>
|
||
<td>硅碳负极已向下游固态电池厂商小批量供货，同时布局硅氧技术和导电剂。</td>
|
||
<td>硅碳负极, 量产供货</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>翔丰华</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300890" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">300890</a></td>
|
||
<td>硅碳、硅氧产品均已送样测试，计划2025年小批量试产。</td>
|
||
<td>硅碳负极, 试产</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 硅基负极原材料 -->
|
||
<tr class="bg-success/10"><td colspan="4" class="font-bold text-center">硅基负极原材料 (Raw Materials)</td></tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>元力股份</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300174" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">300174</a></td>
|
||
<td>多孔碳是新型硅碳负极核心原材料，公司为生物质碳材料隐形冠军，已实现百吨级出货，与HW密切对接。</td>
|
||
<td>多孔碳</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>金博股份</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688598" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">688598</a></td>
|
||
<td>布局硅基负极用多孔碳/介孔碳新产品，是贝特瑞硅氧前驱体最大供应商。</td>
|
||
<td>多孔碳</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>硅烷科技</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=838402" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">838402</a></td>
|
||
<td>核心产品电子级硅烷气是CVD法制造硅碳负极的关键原材料，已开始对硅碳负极客户销售。</td>
|
||
<td>硅烷气, 北交所</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>博迁新材</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=605376" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">605376</a></td>
|
||
<td>生产的纳米级纯硅粉可用于硅碳负极，已处于中试阶段。</td>
|
||
<td>硅粉</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 硅基负极其他辅助材料 -->
|
||
<tr class="bg-success/10"><td colspan="4" class="font-bold text-center">辅助材料及其他 (Auxiliary Materials & Others)</td></tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>鹿山新材</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603051" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">603051</a></td>
|
||
<td>开发的硅碳负极功能粘接材料（PAA）可有效抑制膨胀，正在客户端测试验证。</td>
|
||
<td>粘接材料</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>回天新材</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300041" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">300041</a></td>
|
||
<td>PAA和SBR负极胶产品可用于硅碳负极，已在头部客户批量供货或测试。</td>
|
||
<td>粘接材料</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>天奈科技</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688116" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">688116</a></td>
|
||
<td>CNT导电剂龙头，与日韩及国内核心客户共同开发在硅碳负极中的应用，已对卫蓝、清陶等固态客户出货。</td>
|
||
<td>导电浆料</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
</div>
|
||
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option && myChart.setOption(option);
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</html> |