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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<title>城市更新电梯 - 深度投研报告</title>
<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
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<style>
:root {
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--glow-magenta: rgba(255, 0, 255, 0.8);
--glow-purple: rgba(178, 102, 255, 0.7);
}
body {
font-family: 'Noto Sans SC', sans-serif;
background-color: #020010;
background-image:
radial-gradient(ellipse 40% 50% at 20% 10%, rgba(10, 80, 220, 0.15) 0%, transparent 100%),
radial-gradient(ellipse 40% 50% at 80% 90%, rgba(200, 10, 150, 0.15) 0%, transparent 100%);
overflow-x: hidden;
color: #E0E0E0;
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.orbitron {
font-family: 'Orbitron', sans-serif;
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backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
transition: all 0.3s ease;
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.glass-card:hover {
border-color: rgba(0, 255, 255, 0.3);
box-shadow: 0 0 30px rgba(0, 255, 255, 0.1);
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.glow-text {
text-shadow:
0 0 5px var(--glow-cyan),
0 0 10px var(--glow-cyan),
0 0 20px var(--glow-cyan),
0 0 40px var(--glow-purple);
}
.bento-grid {
display: grid;
grid-template-columns: repeat(6, 1fr);
gap: 1.5rem;
}
.grid-span-6 { grid-column: span 6; }
.grid-span-4 { grid-column: span 6; }
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.grid-span-2 { grid-column: span 6; }
@media (min-width: 1024px) {
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}
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background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
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.timeline-item .timeline-middle .svg-dot {
background-color: #020010;
border: 2px solid var(--glow-cyan);
box-shadow: 0 0 10px var(--glow-cyan);
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border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(0, 255, 255, 0.3);
color: white;
}
.table tbody tr {
border-bottom-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
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background-color: rgba(178, 102, 255, 0.1);
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backdrop-filter: blur(10px);
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background: rgba(0, 255, 255, 0.1);
border: 1px solid rgba(0, 255, 255, 0.3);
color: #93FFFF;
padding: 0.2rem 0.6rem;
border-radius: 9999px;
font-size: 0.75rem;
}
</style>
</head>
<body class="min-h-screen p-4 sm:p-8">
<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto space-y-8">
<!-- Header -->
<header class="text-center py-8">
<h1 class="orbitron text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold text-white glow-text mb-4 tracking-widest">城市更新电梯</h1>
<h2 class="text-xl text-cyan-200 opacity-80">深度投研报告</h2>
<p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-6 max-w-2xl mx-auto">
北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现。本报告基于公开数据合成,观点仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议,投资需谨慎。
</p>
</header>
<!-- Bento Grid Layout -->
<main class="bento-grid">
<!-- Core Thesis -->
<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 grid-span-4">
<h3 class="orbitron text-2xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-4 section-header">核心观点摘要</h3>
<p class="text-base leading-relaxed">
“城市更新电梯”概念的核心是由<strong class="text-cyan-400">强政策周期</strong><strong class="text-fuchsia-400">存量替换周期</strong>双重共振驱动的确定性增长赛道。当前,该概念正处于从政策发布到项目落地的<strong class="text-white">业绩兑现初期</strong>,其核心驱动力是<strong class="text-cyan-400">超长期特别国债</strong>提供的“真金白银”支持,未来潜力在于将庞大的存量电梯(<strong class="text-white font-semibold">超80万台</strong>)转化为持续、高毛利的更新与维保业务,推动行业商业模式由“增量依赖”向“存量服务”根本性转变。
</p>
</section>
<!-- Key Data Points -->
<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 grid-span-2">
<h3 class="orbitron text-2xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-4 section-header">关键数据</h3>
<div class="stats stats-vertical w-full bg-transparent">
<div class="stat">
<div class="stat-title text-gray-400">15年以上老旧电梯存量</div>
<div class="stat-value text-cyan-300 text-4xl">> 80 万台</div>
<div class="stat-desc text-gray-500">来源: 国家发改委</div>
</div>
<div class="stat">
<div class="stat-title text-gray-400">国家定额更新补贴</div>
<div class="stat-value text-fuchsia-400 text-4xl">15 万元/台</div>
<div class="stat-desc text-gray-500">超长期特别国债支持</div>
</div>
<div class="stat">
<div class="stat-title text-gray-400">2024年国债支持目标</div>
<div class="stat-value text-white text-4xl">~ 4 万台</div>
<div class="stat-desc text-gray-500">来源: 住建部</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Core Logic -->
<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 grid-span-6">
<h3 class="orbitron text-2xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-6 section-header">概念核心逻辑与市场认知</h3>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
<div class="space-y-4 p-4 border border-white/10 rounded-2xl">
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-white">政策强催化</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">
区别于以往指导意见,本次由发改委、住建部、财政部等多部委联合推动,纳入“大规模设备更新”和“城市更新”两大国家战略,政策层级高,执行力强。
</p>
</div>
<div class="space-y-4 p-4 border border-white/10 rounded-2xl">
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-white">存量市场刚需</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">
截至2023年底电梯保有量超1000万台超80万台使用超15年存在安全隐患与高维修成本更新换代是保障民生的刚性需求。
</p>
</div>
<div class="space-y-4 p-4 border border-white/10 rounded-2xl">
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-white">财政资金破局</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">
超长期特别国债以每台15万元的定额补贴有效解决了项目启动资金难题撬动政府、市场与住户的共担机制是概念落地的最关键变量。
</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="mt-8">
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-white mb-4">预期差分析:</h4>
<ul class="space-y-3 list-disc list-inside text-gray-300">
<li><strong class="text-fuchsia-400">商业模式转变深度:</strong>市场可能低估了从一次性设备销售向高毛利、长周期“设备+服务”模式转型的价值重估潜力。维保业务可贡献长期稳定现金流。</li>
<li><strong class="text-fuchsia-400">更新规模持续性:</strong>市场焦点在2024年4万台目标但政策可能具备连续性分析师预估明年需求或达10万台市场尚未充分定价未来几年的需求释放。</li>
<li><strong class="text-fuchsia-400">“更新”与“加装”的区分:</strong>当前阶段,“更新”是安全驱动的刚需,有国债资金支持,确定性远高于依赖居民意愿协调的“加装”弹性需求。</li>
</ul>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Concept Event Timeline -->
<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 grid-span-3">
<h3 class="orbitron text-2xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-6 section-header">概念催化路径</h3>
<ul class="timeline timeline-snap-icon timeline-compact timeline-vertical">
<li>
<div class="timeline-middle">
<div class="w-4 h-4 rounded-full svg-dot"></div>
</div>
<div class="timeline-end timeline-box bg-transparent border-none p-0 mb-6">
<time class="font-mono italic text-cyan-400 text-sm">2023.07</time>
<div class="text-lg font-black text-white">政策奠基</div>
国家发改委明确将老旧电梯纳入超长期特别国债支持范围。
</div>
<hr class="bg-cyan-400/30"/>
</li>
<li>
<hr class="bg-cyan-400/30"/>
<div class="timeline-middle">
<div class="w-4 h-4 rounded-full svg-dot"></div>
</div>
<div class="timeline-start timeline-box bg-transparent border-none p-0 mb-6 md:text-end">
<time class="font-mono italic text-cyan-400 text-sm">2024.Q2</time>
<div class="text-lg font-black text-white">资金落地</div>
住建部/财政部明确国债资金支持4万余台并公布15万元/台的更新补贴标准。
</div>
<hr class="bg-cyan-400/30"/>
</li>
<li>
<hr class="bg-cyan-400/30"/>
<div class="timeline-middle">
<div class="w-4 h-4 rounded-full svg-dot"></div>
</div>
<div class="timeline-end timeline-box bg-transparent border-none p-0 mb-6">
<time class="font-mono italic text-cyan-400 text-sm">2024.H2</time>
<div class="text-lg font-black text-white">项目启动</div>
北京、南宁、银川等地首批国债支持项目陆续开工,订单进入确认期。
</div>
<hr class="bg-cyan-400/30"/>
</li>
<li>
<hr class="bg-cyan-400/30"/>
<div class="timeline-middle">
<div class="w-4 h-4 rounded-full svg-dot"></div>
</div>
<div class="timeline-start timeline-box bg-transparent border-none p-0 md:text-end">
<time class="font-mono italic text-fuchsia-400 text-sm">未来3-6个月</time>
<div class="text-lg font-black text-white">业绩兑现期</div>
上市公司中标公告密集发布2024年底前项目开工要求将驱动订单确认。
</div>
</li>
</ul>
</section>
<!-- Development Path -->
<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 grid-span-3">
<h3 class="orbitron text-2xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-6 section-header">长期发展路径</h3>
<div class="space-y-6">
<div class="p-4 rounded-xl border border-white/10 transition-all hover:border-cyan-400/50 hover:bg-white/5">
<div class="flex items-center gap-4">
<div class="orbitron text-3xl font-bold text-cyan-300">01</div>
<div>
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-white">初期 (2024-2025): 政策驱动更新潮</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">国债支持为主导,企业订单爆发式增长,市场关注订单获取与交付能力。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="p-4 rounded-xl border border-white/10 transition-all hover:border-cyan-400/50 hover:bg-white/5">
<div class="flex items-center gap-4">
<div class="orbitron text-3xl font-bold text-cyan-300">02</div>
<div>
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-white">中期 (2025-2027): 后市场服务模式确立</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">重心转向高毛利维保服务,后市场规模或首超新梯市场,智能化服务能力构建护城河。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="p-4 rounded-xl border border-white/10 transition-all hover:border-cyan-400/50 hover:bg-white/5">
<div class="flex items-center gap-4">
<div class="orbitron text-3xl font-bold text-cyan-300">03</div>
<div>
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-white">成熟期 (2027+): 存量经营时代</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">行业转变为类公用事业的稳定存量市场,核心竞争力为品牌、服务网络与数字化效率。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Industry Chain & Key Players -->
<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 grid-span-6">
<h3 class="orbitron text-2xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-6 section-header">产业链与核心公司剖析</h3>
<div class="flex flex-col lg:flex-row gap-6">
<!-- Industry Chain Chart -->
<div class="lg:w-1/3 space-y-4">
<div class="p-4 rounded-lg bg-cyan-900/30 border border-cyan-500/30">
<h4 class="font-bold text-cyan-300 text-center">上游:核心零部件</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-center text-gray-300">门系统、控制系统、曳引机等</p>
</div>
<div class="flex justify-center">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-8 w-8 text-cyan-400" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M19 14l-7 7m0 0l-7-7m7 7V3" /></svg>
</div>
<div class="p-4 rounded-lg bg-fuchsia-900/30 border border-fuchsia-500/30 shadow-lg shadow-fuchsia-500/10">
<h4 class="font-bold text-fuchsia-300 text-center">中游:电梯整机制造商 (OEM)</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-center text-white font-semibold">[ 核心受益环节 ]</p>
<p class="text-sm text-center text-gray-300">设计、制造、安装、销售</p>
</div>
<div class="flex justify-center">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-8 w-8 text-cyan-400" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M19 14l-7 7m0 0l-7-7m7 7V3" /></svg>
</div>
<div class="p-4 rounded-lg bg-purple-900/30 border border-purple-500/30">
<h4 class="font-bold text-purple-300 text-center">下游:应用与服务</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-center text-gray-300">城市更新项目方、物业、维保</p>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Key Players Analysis -->
<div class="lg:w-2/3 space-y-4">
<div x-data="{ expanded: false }" class="p-4 rounded-xl glass-card border-fuchsia-400/50">
<div @click="expanded = !expanded" class="flex justify-between items-center cursor-pointer">
<div>
<h4 class="font-bold text-xl text-white">绝对龙头:上海机电 (600835)</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-fuchsia-300">核心优势:庞大存量基础 + 强大维保网络</p>
</div>
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6 transition-transform" :class="{'rotate-180': expanded}" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M19 9l-7 7-7-7" /></svg>
</div>
<div x-show="expanded" x-collapse class="mt-4 text-sm text-gray-300 space-y-2">
<p><strong>· 护城河:</strong>旗下“上海三菱”品牌累计销售超130万台为维保后市场提供无与伦比的“金矿”。</p>
<p><strong>· 业务进展:</strong>已建720+维保网络和EleCare远程服务系统24H1维保收入占比达34.45%,转型路径清晰。</p>
<p><strong>· 逻辑纯粹性:</strong>极纯。不仅受益于更新订单,更能将订单转化为长期高利润维保合同,实现戴维斯双击。</p>
</div>
</div>
<div x-data="{ expanded: false }" class="p-4 rounded-xl glass-card">
<div @click="expanded = !expanded" class="flex justify-between items-center cursor-pointer">
<div>
<h4 class="font-bold text-xl text-white">国产领军:康力电梯 (002367)</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-cyan-300">核心优势:国产龙头,加装市占率高</p>
</div>
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6 transition-transform" :class="{'rotate-180': expanded}" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M19 9l-7 7-7-7" /></svg>
</div>
<div x-show="expanded" x-collapse class="mt-4 text-sm text-gray-300 space-y-2">
<p><strong>· 业务优势:</strong>深耕中高端市场,在老旧小区加装领域经验丰富,参与过人民大会堂等标杆项目,品牌受认可。</p>
<p><strong>· 逻辑纯粹性:</strong>纯粹。作为国产头部品牌,在政策强调供应链安全背景下,有望在政府主导的更新项目中获得更高份额。</p>
</div>
</div>
<div x-data="{ expanded: false }" class="p-4 rounded-xl glass-card">
<div @click="expanded = !expanded" class="flex justify-between items-center cursor-pointer">
<div>
<h4 class="font-bold text-xl text-white">区域强手:广日股份 (600894)</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-cyan-300">核心优势:华南绝对龙头,现金流稳健</p>
</div>
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6 transition-transform" :class="{'rotate-180': expanded}" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M19 9l-7 7-7-7" /></svg>
</div>
<div x-show="expanded" x-collapse class="mt-4 text-sm text-gray-300 space-y-2">
<p><strong>· 业务优势:</strong>华南地区市占率高达60-70%。参股日立电梯持股30%)带来稳定投资收益,支撑主业发展。</p>
<p><strong>· 逻辑纯粹性:</strong>清晰,但需同时考量自身业务和日立的投资收益。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Risks -->
<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 grid-span-6">
<h3 class="orbitron text-2xl font-bold text-red-400 mb-6 section-header" style="border-color: #f87171; text-shadow: 0 0 5px #f87171;">潜在风险与挑战</h3>
<ul class="space-y-3 list-disc list-inside text-gray-300">
<li><strong class="text-red-400">政策连续性风险:</strong>超长期特别国债的支持是否为一次性政策是最大不确定性。若后续支持减弱,概念长期增长逻辑将受影响。</li>
<li><strong class="text-red-400">项目落地风险:</strong>老旧小区改造涉及多方利益协调,居民自筹资金意愿和意见统一仍是项目推进的难点,可能导致执行不及预期。</li>
<li><strong class="text-red-400">商业化风险:</strong>明确的政策红利可能引发市场激烈竞争和价格战,从而侵蚀预期的高利润空间。</li>
<li><strong class="text-red-400">数据交叉验证风险:</strong>市场信息存在不精确之处(如老旧电梯存量数据有多个版本),且各地补贴标准不一,项目经济性需具体分析。</li>
</ul>
</section>
</main>
<!-- Stock Table -->
<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<h3 class="orbitron text-3xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-6 section-header">核心受益标的</h3>
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
<table class="table table-pin-rows">
<thead>
<tr>
<th class="text-base">股票名称</th>
<th class="text-base">股票代码</th>
<th class="text-base w-1/2">核心逻辑 / 2024年营收</th>
<th class="text-base">产业链环节</th>
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<td class="font-bold text-white">上海机电</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600835" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">600835</a></td>
<td>电梯营收193.99亿元;拥有“上海三菱”著名电梯企业,存量市场与维保网络优势巨大。</td>
<td><span class="tag-pill" style="background-color:rgba(255, 0, 255, 0.1); border-color: rgba(255, 0, 255, 0.3); color: #FF99FF;">电梯整机</span></td>
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<td class="font-bold text-white">康力电梯</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002367" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">002367</a></td>
<td>电梯营收40.16亿元;国产电梯龙头,老旧小区加装市占率高。</td>
<td><span class="tag-pill" style="background-color:rgba(255, 0, 255, 0.1); border-color: rgba(255, 0, 255, 0.3); color: #FF99FF;">电梯整机</span></td>
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<td class="font-bold text-white">广日股份</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600894" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">600894</a></td>
<td>电梯营收31亿元零部件34.2亿元;华南区域龙头,参股日立。</td>
<td><span class="tag-pill" style="background-color:rgba(255, 0, 255, 0.1); border-color: rgba(255, 0, 255, 0.3); color: #FF99FF;">电梯整机</span></td>
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<td class="font-bold text-white">快意电梯</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002774" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">002774</a></td>
<td>直梯营收12.45亿元</td>
<td><span class="tag-pill" style="background-color:rgba(255, 0, 255, 0.1); border-color: rgba(255, 0, 255, 0.3); color: #FF99FF;">电梯整机</span></td>
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<td class="font-bold text-white">森赫股份</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301056" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">301056</a></td>
<td>电梯销售营收6.35亿元</td>
<td><span class="tag-pill" style="background-color:rgba(255, 0, 255, 0.1); border-color: rgba(255, 0, 255, 0.3); color: #FF99FF;">电梯整机</span></td>
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<td class="font-bold text-white">梅轮电梯</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603321" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">603321</a></td>
<td>电梯营收5.83亿元</td>
<td><span class="tag-pill" style="background-color:rgba(255, 0, 255, 0.1); border-color: rgba(255, 0, 255, 0.3); color: #FF99FF;">电梯整机</span></td>
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<td class="font-bold text-white">通用电梯</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300931" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">300931</a></td>
<td>电梯销售营收5.06亿元;已中标银川老旧电梯更新项目。</td>
<td><span class="tag-pill" style="background-color:rgba(255, 0, 255, 0.1); border-color: rgba(255, 0, 255, 0.3); color: #FF99FF;">电梯整机</span></td>
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<td class="font-bold text-white">同力日升</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=605286" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">605286</a></td>
<td>电梯部件及材料营收15.98亿元</td>
<td><span class="tag-pill">零部件及配件</span></td>
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<td class="font-bold text-white">华菱精工</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603356" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">603356</a></td>
<td>电梯配件营收9.96亿元</td>
<td><span class="tag-pill">零部件及配件</span></td>
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<td class="font-bold text-white">华宏科技</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002645" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">002645</a></td>
<td>电梯零部件营收6.89亿元</td>
<td><span class="tag-pill">零部件及配件</span></td>
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<td class="font-bold text-white">展鹏科技</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603488" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">603488</a></td>
<td>电梯行业营收3.26亿元 (主营电梯门系统、控制系统)</td>
<td><span class="tag-pill">零部件及配件</span></td>
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<td class="font-bold text-white">沪宁股份</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300669" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:underline">300669</a></td>
<td>电梯安全部件营收2.76亿元</td>
<td><span class="tag-pill">零部件及配件</span></td>
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