467 lines
42 KiB
HTML
467 lines
42 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>教育概念深度研究报告</title>
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</head>
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<body class="text-gray-300">
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center py-12">
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<h1 class="main-title mb-4">教育概念深度研究报告</h1>
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<p class="text-lg text-gray-400">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 呈现</p>
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</header>
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<!-- Insight Section -->
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<main class="space-y-8">
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<section id="insight" class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-6 section-title">概念洞察 (Insight)</h2>
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<div class="space-y-8">
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<!-- Core Viewpoint & Catalysts Bento Grid -->
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-1 md:col-span-2">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-cyan-400 mb-3">核心观点摘要</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-400">教育概念正处于**“政策底”确立后的结构性复苏与创新驱动并存**的阶段。其核心驱动力已从单一的K12学科培训，转向**政策明确支持的职业教育**和**技术革命催生的AI+教育**两大引擎。未来潜力在于，合规龙头在K12领域抢占市场份额实现稳健增长（为“盾”），而职业教育和AI+教育则具备更高的业绩弹性与想象空间（为“矛”）。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bento-item glass-card">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-purple-400 mb-3">近期催化剂 (3-6个月)</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-400">
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<li><strong>具体补贴政策落地：</strong>如每年补贴千万职教人次的政策出台。</li>
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<li><strong>AI产品商业化验证：</strong>豆神教育AI硬件销售数据，新东方AI一对一用户反馈。</li>
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<li><strong>关键公司业绩拐点：</strong>行动教育Q3财报验证到场率回升。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Event Timeline Chart -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-pink-400 mb-4">关键事件与时间轴</h3>
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<div id="timeline-chart" style="width: 100%; height: 400px;"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Core Logic -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4">核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h3>
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<div class="space-y-4 text-gray-400">
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<div>
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<strong class="text-gray-200">1. 核心驱动力:</strong>
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<ul class="list-decimal list-inside ml-4 mt-2 space-y-1">
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-400">政策重塑与方向指引:</strong> “双减”后国家级文件清晰划定“禁区”（K9学科培训）和“鼓励区”（职业教育、素质教育、教育信息化）。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-400">供给侧出清后的龙头效应:</strong> K9学科机构压减97%，头部公司（新东方、学大）面临格局优化的市场，有望提升市占率。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-400">AI技术赋能与商业模式创新:</strong> 生成式AI重构教育供给，从辅助工具深入个性化学习等核心环节，有望实现“降本增效”和“体验革新”。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<strong class="text-gray-200">2. 市场热度与情绪:</strong>
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<p>市场热度极高，情绪复杂。政策催化下易出现脉冲式上涨，交易和博弈属性强。同时机构投资者深入研究，呈现**“短期投机与长期价值发现并存”**的分裂状态。对职教、AI方向普遍乐观，对K12稳定性存谨慎。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<strong class="text-gray-200">3. 预期差分析:</strong>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside ml-4 mt-2 space-y-1">
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<li><strong>宏观利好 vs 微观挑战:</strong> 市场看好职教弹性，但行动教育路演揭示，宏观经济压力会直接影响企业付费意愿和到场率，业绩与经济紧密相连。</li>
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<li><strong>AI的“愿景” vs “现实”:</strong> 市场对AI寄予厚望，但路演显示多数公司AI应用尚处试点或内部提效阶段，大规模商业化仍需时间。</li>
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<li><strong>增长的“质量”问题:</strong> K12龙头收入高增长背后，是开店提速、高投入导致的利润率下滑。市场可能过度关注增速而忽略了盈利质量。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Industry Chain & Companies -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4">产业链与核心公司深度剖析</h3>
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<div class="space-y-6 text-gray-400">
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<div>
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<strong class="text-gray-200 block mb-2">产业链图谱:</strong>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-4 text-center">
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<div class="p-4 rounded-lg bg-gray-800/50">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-cyan-400">上游</h4>
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<p>内容与技术提供商<br>(教材、AI大模型)</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 rounded-lg bg-gray-800/50">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-purple-400">中游</h4>
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<p>教育服务与产品运营商<br>(K12/职教培训、学习机)</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 rounded-lg bg-gray-800/50">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-pink-400">下游</h4>
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<p>付费用户<br>(To C/B/G)</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<strong class="text-gray-200 block mb-4">核心玩家对比:</strong>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div class="p-4 rounded-lg border border-gray-700">
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<h5 class="font-semibold text-gray-200">K12复苏代表: 学大教育 vs 卓越教育</h5>
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<p><strong>学大教育:</strong> "价值型"选手，个性化教育龙头+职业教育第二曲线，布局多元，周期韧性强。</p>
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<p><strong>卓越教育:</strong> "成长型"选手，大湾区区域龙头，合规性强，扩张计划清晰，弹性高。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 rounded-lg border border-gray-700">
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<h5 class="font-semibold text-gray-200">职业教育特色玩家: 行动教育 vs 科德教育</h5>
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<p><strong>行动教育:</strong> 轻资产培训模式，高毛利高分红，但业绩对宏观经济高度敏感。</p>
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<p><strong>科德教育:</strong> 重资产学校运营模式，壁垒高，申请综合高中牌照是关键突破口。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 rounded-lg border border-gray-700">
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<h5 class="font-semibold text-gray-200">AI+教育探索先锋: 豆神教育 vs 凯文教育</h5>
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<p><strong>豆神教育:</strong> To C互联网打法，"内容IP+AI产品化+直播"，追求爆款和用户规模。</p>
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<p><strong>凯文教育:</strong> To B/G稳健打法，国资背景+与智谱华章合作，从政府集采切入，商业模式清晰。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Risks & Conclusion -->
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
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<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4">潜在风险与挑战</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-400">
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<li><strong>政策风险:</strong> 对高中学科、素质教育的监管仍可能边际收紧，是最大不确定性。</li>
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<li><strong>商业化风险:</strong> AI研发成本高昂，用户付费意愿和采购周期是未知数，需警惕经济周期影响。</li>
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<li><strong>技术风险:</strong> AI准确性、数据隐私、学术不端等问题可能引发新的监管。</li>
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<li><strong>信息交叉验证风险:</strong> 公司乐观指引与现实盈利能力、行业景气度与个体公司表现之间可能存在矛盾。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl p-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-4">综合结论与投资启示</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-400 mb-3">教育概念已进入**“结构性机会”与“基本面分化”**并存的新时期。政策划定赛道，技术带来变量。</p>
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<div class="space-y-2">
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<p><strong class="text-cyan-400">最具投资价值环节:</strong></p>
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<ul class="list-decimal list-inside ml-4 text-gray-400">
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<li><strong>职业教育:</strong> 政策确定性最强，学历制职教（如科德教育）护城河深，非学历职教（如行动教育）弹性高。</li>
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<li><strong>AI+教育内容/产品商:</strong> 最具想象空间，核心是寻找“拥有核心内容IP + 快速产品化能力”的公司（如豆神教育）。</li>
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</ul>
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<p><strong class="text-cyan-400">需重点跟踪指标:</strong></p>
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<p class="text-gray-400">K12的单店模型盈利能力；职教的招生人次和就业率；AI教育产品的收入占比及续费率。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Supporting Data Section -->
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<section id="data-sources" class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8" x-data="{ tab: 'news' }">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-6 section-title">原始情报汇总</h2>
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<div role="tablist" class="tabs tabs-bordered mb-6">
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<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'news' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'news'">新闻数据</a>
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<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'roadshows' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'roadshows'">路演纪要</a>
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<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'reports' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'reports'">研报精粹</a>
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</div>
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<div class="space-y-2">
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<!-- News -->
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<div x-show="tab === 'news'">
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<div class="daisy-collapse daisy-collapse-arrow bg-base-200/50 rounded-box">
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<input type="checkbox" />
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<div class="daisy-collapse-title text-lg font-medium">宏观政策与行业动态</div>
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<div class="daisy-collapse-content">
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 p-4 text-gray-400">
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<li><strong>国务院《关于促进服务消费高质量发展的意见》:</strong> “双减”后少有地提及“教育和培训消费”，被市场解读为利好。同时提出推动高等院校、科研机构开放优质教育资源，推动职业教育提质增效。</li>
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<li><strong>《关于实施就业优先战略促进高质量充分就业的意见》:</strong> 强调加快发展现代职业教育，推进职普融通、产教融合、科教融汇。</li>
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<li><strong>《关于弘扬教育家精神加强新时代高素质专业化教师队伍建设的意见》:</strong> 提出到2035年，数字化赋能教师发展成为常态。</li>
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<li><strong>世界职业技术教育发展大会:</strong> 教育部将于11月20-22日在天津举办，引发市场对职教政策的预期。</li>
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<li><strong>职业技能培训补贴预期:</strong> 市场预期将推出“技能照亮前程”计划，每年补贴1000万人次以上。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="daisy-collapse daisy-collapse-arrow bg-base-200/50 rounded-box">
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<input type="checkbox" />
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<div class="daisy-collapse-title text-lg font-medium">行业细分领域分析</div>
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<div class="daisy-collapse-content">
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<div class="p-4 text-gray-400">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-gray-200">K12教育领域：</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1 ml-4">
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<li>景气度延续，Q3收入普遍增长20%-40%。但盈利能力分化，新东方、学大教育利润率有望改善，而新东方、高途因扩张提速利润率同比下降。</li>
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<li>产能扩张加速，新东方、好未来产能增速分别为+37%/+100%，同店满班率阶段性承压。</li>
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<li>合同负债数据显示，高途、卓越、思考乐下季度收入增长或加快。</li>
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</ul>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-gray-200 mt-4">职业教育与成人教育领域：</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1 ml-4">
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<li>市场环境仍有压力，关注个股分化。港股高教低估值高股息板块或表现靠前。公考需求温和增长。</li>
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</ul>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-gray-200 mt-4">AI+教育领域：</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1 ml-4">
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<li>多家公司召开AI产品发布会，学习机是重要落地场景。25年1月学习机电商数据显示，学而思、科大讯飞、作业帮销售额同比高增。</li>
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<li>好未来、网易有道、科大讯飞等均接入DeepSeek大模型；凯文教育联手智谱华章开发教育行业应用。</li>
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</ul>
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<div class="p-4 text-gray-400">
|
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-gray-200">股市表现：</h4>
|
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<p>板块在24年7-9月受政策驱动出现剧烈波动，中公教育、凯文教育、豆神教育等轮番涨停。11月后，市场预期转向职教大会和AI主题，豆神教育、科德教育等表现活跃。</p>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-gray-200 mt-4">风险提示：</h4>
|
||
<p>招生及收入增长不及预期；利润率释放不及预期；宏观经济与政策变化风险；行业竞争加剧等。</p>
|
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</div>
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<div class="daisy-collapse daisy-collapse-arrow bg-base-200/50 rounded-box">
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<div class="daisy-collapse-title text-lg font-medium">行动教育 (多次路演)</div>
|
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<div class="daisy-collapse-content"><p class="p-4 text-gray-400"><strong>核心业务:</strong> 高毛利EMBA课程贡献超67%收入。<strong>战略:</strong> 坚持大客户战略，启动“百校计划”扩张，并以AI赋能销售（如AR销售大师）。<strong>业绩波动:</strong> 25Q2到课率因宏观经济（贸易战、关税焦虑）影响下滑，尤其华南区域；但管理层判断Q3将迎拐点，7月订单同比高增。<strong>AI应用:</strong> AI测评和陪练已用于内部提效，新人存活率+16%，出单率+46%。</p></div>
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</div>
|
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<div class="daisy-collapse daisy-collapse-arrow bg-base-200/50 rounded-box">
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<input type="checkbox" />
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<div class="daisy-collapse-content"><p class="p-4 text-gray-400"><strong>业绩指引:</strong> 2025年目标营收20亿元（+81.8%），利润超3亿元。<strong>扩张计划:</strong> 聚焦大湾区，深圳列为“第一优先”城市，2025年校区数量预计增长20%-25%。<strong>竞争策略:</strong> 避免价格战，聚焦合规与课程质量，利用牌照优势挤压小机构。<strong>AI进展:</strong> AI技术初步应用于作业批改、家校沟通，但仅在全日制试点，尚未大规模推广。</p></div>
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<div class="daisy-collapse-title text-lg font-medium">凯文教育 (多次路演)</div>
|
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<div class="daisy-collapse-content"><p class="p-4 text-gray-400"><strong>业务驱动:</strong> K12国际学校招生增长稳健，海淀校区满员，朝阳校区扩招。职业教育在校生近9000人。<strong>国资背景:</strong> 强调海淀区国企身份，获区领导及教委支持。<strong>AI战略:</strong> 与智谱华章、鸿智睿师设合资公司，开发助教、助学、助管产品，模式为政府集采，已与海淀区党校合作。</p></div>
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|
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<div class="daisy-collapse-content"><p class="p-4 text-gray-400"><strong>核心发现:</strong> AI在教育领域采用率迅速提升，主要用于创建教学资源、行政任务和课程规划。<strong>益处:</strong> 节省教师时间、增强创造力、改善个性化学习。<strong>担忧:</strong> 学术不端、过度依赖、数据隐私和加剧教育不平是主要挑战。<strong>建议:</strong> 需制定全面的AI战略，建立证据基础，更新课程以适应AI时代。</p></div>
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</div>
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<div class="daisy-collapse daisy-collapse-arrow bg-base-200/50 rounded-box">
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|
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<div class="daisy-collapse-title text-lg font-medium">豆神教育 (多份研报)</div>
|
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<div class="daisy-collapse-content"><p class="p-4 text-gray-400"><strong>业务转型:</strong> 聚焦素养教育服务，打造AI+教育生态。<strong>AI布局:</strong> 与智谱等合作，推出“豆神AI”、“AI超拟人课堂”、“AI超能训练场”等产品矩阵。市场反响积极，“AI超能训练场”上线一周GMV突破1740万元。<strong>投资亮点:</strong> 将名师IP与AI技术结合，实现名师产能规模化，AI产品矩阵丰富。<strong>风险:</strong> 文化监管政策、核心人才流失。</p></div>
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|
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<p>北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研”</p>
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"教育(240826)": { "81C0CA27-47A2-4C75-96D0-305BDF5FADF9.jpg": [ { "stock": "多伦科技", "reason": "教育软件", "其他标签": "教学产品", "stock_code": "603528" }, { "stock": "方直科技", "reason": "教育软件, K12", "其他标签": "教学产品, 教育培训", "stock_code": "300235" }, { "stock": "佳发教育", "reason": "教育软件, 考试, 智慧校园", "其他标签": "教学产品", "stock_code": "300559" }, { "stock": "豆神教育", "reason": "教育软件, K12", "其他标签": "教学产品, 教育培训", "stock_code": "300010" }, { "stock": "博瑞传播", "reason": "教育软件", "其他标签": "教学产品", "stock_code": "600880" }, { "stock": "全通教育", "reason": "教育软件, 智慧校园, K12, 素质教育, 职业教育", "其他标签": "教学产品, 教育培训", "stock_code": "300359" }, { "stock": "鸥玛软件", "reason": "教育软件, 考试", "其他标签": "教学产品", "stock_code": "301185" }, { "stock": "竞业达", "reason": "教育软件, 考试, 智慧校园", "其他标签": "教学产品", "stock_code": "003005" }, { "stock": "新开普", "reason": "智慧校园", "其他标签": "教学产品", "stock_code": "300248" }, { "stock": "正元智慧", "reason": "智慧校园", "其他标签": "教学产品", "stock_code": "300645" }, { "stock": "立达信", "reason": "智慧校园", "其他标签": "教学产品", "stock_code": "605365" }, { "stock": "申昊科技", "reason": "智慧校园", "其他标签": "教学产品", "stock_code": "300853" }, { "stock": "鸿合科技", "reason": "智慧终端/教学", "其他标签": "教学产品", "stock_code": "002955" }, { "stock": "视源股份", "reason": "智慧终端/教学", "其他标签": "教学产品", "stock_code": "002841" }, { "stock": "高乐股份", "reason": "智慧终端/教学", "其他标签": "教学产品", "stock_code": "002348" }, { "stock": "科大讯飞", "reason": "智慧终端/教学", "其他标签": "教学产品", "stock_code": "002230" }, { "stock": "汉王科技", "reason": "智慧终端/教学", "其他标签": "教学产品", "stock_code": "002362" }, { "stock": "齐心集团", "reason": "智慧终端/教学", "其他标签": "教学产品", "stock_code": "002301" }, { "stock": "真视通", "reason": "智慧终端/教学", "其他标签": "教学产品", "stock_code": "002771" }, { "stock": "智微智能", "reason": "智慧终端/教学", "其他标签": "教学产品", "stock_code": "001339" }, { "stock": "康冠科技", "reason": "智慧终端/教学", "其他标签": "教学产品", "stock_code": "001308" }, { "stock": "国新文化", "reason": "在线教育, 职业教育", "其他标签": "教育培训" }, { "stock": "科德教育", "reason": "在线教育, K12, 职业教育", "其他标签": "教育培训", "stock_code": "300192" }, { "stock": "世纪天鸿", "reason": "在线教育", "其他标签": "教育培训", "stock_code": "300654" }, { "stock": "同方股份", "reason": "在线教育", "其他标签": "教育培训", "stock_code": "600100" }, { "stock": "昂立教育", "reason": "在线教育, K12, 职业教育", "其他标签": "教育培训", "stock_code": "600661" }, { "stock": "学大教育", "reason": "K12", "其他标签": "教育培训", "stock_code": "000526" }, { "stock": "凯文教育", "reason": "K12, 素质教育, 职业教育", "其他标签": "教育培训", "stock_code": "002659" }, { "stock": "盛通股份", "reason": "早教, 职业教育", "其他标签": "教育培训", "stock_code": "002599" }, { "stock": "传智教育", "reason": "素质教育, 职业教育", "其他标签": "教育培训" }, { "stock": "海伦钢琴", "reason": "素质教育", "其他标签": "教育培训", "stock_code": "300329" }, { "stock": "珠江钢琴", "reason": "素质教育", "其他标签": "教育培训", "stock_code": "002678" }, { "stock": "中公教育", "reason": "职业教育", "其他标签": "教育培训", "stock_code": "002607" }, { "stock": "行动教育", "reason": "职业教育 (含非学历培训)", "其他标签": "教育培训", "stock_code": "605098" }, { "stock": "*ST开元", "reason": "职业教育", "其他标签": "教育培训" }, { "stock": "世纪鼎利", "reason": "职业教育", "其他标签": "教育培训", "stock_code": "300050" }, { "stock": "创业黑马", "reason": "职业教育", "其他标签": "教育培训", "stock_code": "300688" }, { "stock": "捷安高科", "reason": "职业教育", "其他标签": "教育培训", "stock_code": "300845" }, { "stock": "中国高科", "reason": "职业教育", "其他标签": "教育培训", "stock_code": "600730" } ] }
|
||
};
|
||
|
||
const combinedStocks = new Map();
|
||
Object.values(stockDataRaw).forEach(category => {
|
||
Object.values(category).forEach(stockList => {
|
||
stockList.forEach(stock => {
|
||
if (!combinedStocks.has(stock.stock)) {
|
||
combinedStocks.set(stock.stock, stock);
|
||
}
|
||
});
|
||
});
|
||
});
|
||
|
||
const tableBody = document.getElementById('stock-table-body');
|
||
Array.from(combinedStocks.values()).forEach(stock => {
|
||
const codeHtml = stock.stock_code
|
||
? `<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=${stock.stock_code}" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:text-cyan-300 transition-colors">${stock.stock_code}</a>`
|
||
: 'N/A';
|
||
|
||
const row = `
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-gray-800/50 transition-colors">
|
||
<td class="font-semibold text-gray-200">${stock.stock}</td>
|
||
<td>${codeHtml}</td>
|
||
<td>${stock.reason}</td>
|
||
<td>${stock['其他标签']}</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
`;
|
||
tableBody.innerHTML += row;
|
||
});
|
||
|
||
});
|
||
</script>
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html> |