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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<title>深度行研 | 新饮品概念</title>
<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.11.1/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
<script defer src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js"></script>
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com">
<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.gstatic.com" crossorigin>
<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Manrope:wght@300;400;500;700&family=Oxanium:wght@400;600;700&display=swap" rel="stylesheet">
<style>
body {
font-family: 'Manrope', sans-serif;
background-color: #0c0a18;
background-image: radial-gradient(ellipse 80% 80% at 50% -20%, rgba(120, 119, 198, 0.3), rgba(255, 255, 255, 0));
color: #e0e0e0;
}
.font-oxanium {
font-family: 'Oxanium', cursive;
}
.glass-card {
background: rgba(18, 16, 38, 0.5);
backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
transition: all 0.3s ease;
}
.glass-card:hover {
border-color: rgba(129, 140, 248, 0.5);
box-shadow: 0 0 20px rgba(129, 140, 248, 0.1);
}
.text-glow {
text-shadow: 0 0 8px rgba(199, 210, 254, 0.6), 0 0 20px rgba(129, 140, 248, 0.4);
}
.section-title {
font-family: 'Oxanium', cursive;
letter-spacing: 0.1em;
text-transform: uppercase;
}
.bento-grid {
display: grid;
gap: 1rem;
grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fit, minmax(300px, 1fr));
}
.timeline {
position: relative;
padding-left: 2rem;
}
.timeline::before {
content: '';
position: absolute;
left: 0;
top: 0;
bottom: 0;
width: 2px;
background-image: linear-gradient(to bottom, #4f46e5, #a78bfa, #c4b5fd);
}
.timeline-item {
position: relative;
margin-bottom: 2rem;
}
.timeline-item::before {
content: '';
position: absolute;
left: -2.45rem;
top: 0.25rem;
width: 1rem;
height: 1rem;
border-radius: 50%;
background-color: #a78bfa;
border: 3px solid #1e1b4b;
}
details summary::-webkit-details-marker {
display:none;
}
.table-reason-cell {
white-space: pre-wrap;
font-size: 0.8rem;
line-height: 1.5;
padding: 1rem;
background-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.2);
border-radius: 8px;
}
</style>
</head>
<body class="min-h-screen">
<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
<!-- Header -->
<header class="text-center py-12">
<h1 class="text-5xl md:text-7xl font-oxanium font-bold text-transparent bg-clip-text bg-gradient-to-r from-indigo-300 via-purple-300 to-indigo-400 text-glow">
新饮品概念
</h1>
<p class="mt-4 text-lg text-indigo-200">深度行研报告</p>
<p class="mt-2 text-sm text-gray-400">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现本报告为AI合成数据投资需谨慎。</p>
</header>
<!-- Main Content -->
<main class="space-y-16">
<!-- Insight Section -->
<section id="insight">
<div class="p-6 md:p-8 glass-card rounded-3xl">
<h2 class="section-title text-3xl text-indigo-300 mb-8 border-b border-indigo-500/20 pb-4">概念Insight</h2>
<!-- 0. 核心观点摘要 -->
<div class="mb-12 p-6 border border-purple-500/30 rounded-2xl bg-purple-900/10">
<h3 class="font-oxanium text-xl text-purple-300 mb-3">核心观点摘要</h3>
<p class="text-gray-300">
“新饮品”概念本质上是传统饮品行业在**健康化、功能化、场景化**三大趋势驱动下的存量市场结构性升级。其核心驱动力源于消费端对**“健康价值”与“情绪价值”**的强劲需求。当前概念处于从**主题发酵向基本面验证过渡**的关键阶段,市场潜力巨大,但新品成功率低、培育周期长,企业间的执行力和战略定力将成为最终分化的胜负手。
</p>
</div>
<!-- 1. 概念事件与时间轴 -->
<div class="mb-12">
<h3 class="font-oxanium text-xl text-indigo-300 mb-6">概念事件与时间轴</h3>
<div class="timeline">
<div class="timeline-item">
<p class="font-bold text-purple-300">长期背景 (2023年及以前)</p>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">元气森林成功教育市场,无糖、低卡成主流;现制饮品赛道验证“大单品”策略。</p>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item">
<p class="font-bold text-purple-300">战略布局期 (2024-Q1及之前)</p>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">传统企业密集规划新品。承德露露于3月春糖会推出草本养生饮系列。</p>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item">
<p class="font-bold text-purple-300">密集发布与推广期 (2024-Q2)</p>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">均瑶、莲花等新品试运营;东鹏明确第二增长曲线;会稽山气泡黄酒抖音爆红;李子园营养素水上架新渠道。</p>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item">
<p class="font-bold text-purple-300">市场验证与分化期 (2024-Q3及以后)</p>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">多家公司明确年度销售目标,市场开始验证新品达成情况,出现动销不佳的负面反馈。</p>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item">
<p class="font-bold text-purple-300">远期趋势 (2025年预示)</p>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">行业共识聚焦“健康+”与“情绪+”,并进入以“超级食材”为核心的“健康化/功能化”4.0阶段。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 2. 核心逻辑与预期差分析 -->
<div class="mb-12">
<h3 class="font-oxanium text-xl text-indigo-300 mb-6">核心逻辑与预期差分析</h3>
<div class="space-y-6">
<div>
<h4 class="font-semibold text-lg text-purple-300 mb-2">核心驱动力:需求侧的深刻变革</h4>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-300 pl-2">
<li><strong class="text-white">“健康+”成为刚需:</strong>底层逻辑。健康属性饮料同比增长26%无糖茶、椰子水5年CAGR超28%。产品创新均围绕此展开。</li>
<li><strong class="text-white">“情绪+”创造溢价:</strong>满足年轻消费者“悦己”需求。气泡黄酒、咖啡黄酒等是典型案例,情绪价值是增长核心。</li>
<li><strong class="text-white">渠道变革提供催化:</strong>零食量贩、抖音直播等新兴渠道重塑新品冷启动模式,为快速引爆提供可能。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<h4 class="font-semibold text-lg text-purple-300 mb-2">预期差分析:新品成功的速度与概率</h4>
<blockquote class="border-l-4 border-purple-500 pl-4 py-2 bg-purple-900/20 rounded-r-lg">
<p class="text-gray-300">最大的预期差在于**“新品从推出到成为大单品”的速度和成功率**。市场可能严重**低估了新品的培育成本和时间**高估了其短期业绩贡献。路演反馈的“动销差、依赖补贴、需3-5年培育期”与新闻稿中的亿元级目标形成鲜明对比揭示了“目标”与“现实”的核心矛盾。</p>
</blockquote>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 3. 销售目标 ECharts -->
<div class="mb-12">
<h3 class="font-oxanium text-xl text-indigo-300 mb-6">部分公司新饮品年度销售目标</h3>
<div id="sales-target-chart" class="w-full h-96 glass-card rounded-2xl p-4"></div>
</div>
<!-- 4. 关键催化剂与产业链 -->
<div class="bento-grid mb-12">
<div class="p-6 glass-card rounded-2xl md:col-span-2">
<h4 class="font-oxanium text-lg text-purple-300 mb-3">关键催化剂 (未来3-6个月)</h4>
<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm text-gray-400">
<li><strong class="text-indigo-300">旺季销售数据验证:</strong> 6-8月是关键验证点动销数据将直接影响市场预期。</li>
<li><strong class="text-indigo-300">营销事件引爆:</strong> 关注头部企业的新代言人官宣及618等营销活动效果。</li>
<li><strong class="text-indigo-300">中报业绩披露:</strong> 新品收入和利润贡献的首次“成绩单”。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="p-6 glass-card rounded-2xl md:col-span-1">
<h4 class="font-oxanium text-lg text-purple-300 mb-3">未来发展路径</h4>
<ol class="list-decimal list-inside text-sm text-gray-400 space-y-1">
<li>单点突破期 (当前)</li>
<li>渠道深耕与规模化</li>
<li>品牌矩阵与平台化</li>
</ol>
</div>
<div class="p-6 glass-card rounded-2xl md:col-span-3">
<h4 class="font-oxanium text-lg text-purple-300 mb-3">产业链图谱</h4>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-4 text-center">
<div class="p-3 bg-gray-900/50 rounded-lg">
<p class="font-bold text-indigo-300">上游</p>
<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">功能/天然原料、包装材料 (代糖, 益生菌, 果汁)</p>
</div>
<div class="p-3 bg-gray-900/50 rounded-lg">
<p class="font-bold text-purple-300">中游</p>
<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">品牌商 (传统企业跨界, 饮料巨头扩张)</p>
</div>
<div class="p-3 bg-gray-900/50 rounded-lg">
<p class="font-bold text-teal-300">下游</p>
<p class="text-xs text-gray-400">销售渠道 (传统商超, 新兴零食量贩, 电商直播)</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 5. 核心玩家深度剖析 -->
<div class="mb-12">
<h3 class="font-oxanium text-xl text-indigo-300 mb-6">核心玩家深度剖析</h3>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
<!-- 东鹏饮料 -->
<div class="p-6 glass-card rounded-2xl">
<h4 class="font-oxanium text-lg text-white">东鹏饮料 (领导者)</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-purple-300 mb-3">战略清晰,执行力强</p>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-2"><strong class="text-gray-200">优势:</strong>“少培育、紧跟随”战略复用150万+强大终端网络,新品具性价比优势。</p>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400"><strong class="text-gray-200">潜在风险:</strong>路演反馈新品动销差、依赖补贴,第二曲线的盈利能力和培育周期存在巨大不确定性。</p>
</div>
<!-- 李子园 -->
<div class="p-6 glass-card rounded-2xl">
<h4 class="font-oxanium text-lg text-white">李子园 (追赶者)</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-purple-300 mb-3">积极求变,效果待验</p>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-2"><strong class="text-gray-200">优势:</strong>品牌有消费者基础,新品定位清晰,渠道策略灵活,率先拥抱零食量贩。</p>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400"><strong class="text-gray-200">潜在风险:</strong>多品类运营能力待验证1亿元销售目标能否达成是关键指标。</p>
</div>
<!-- 会稽山 -->
<div class="p-6 glass-card rounded-2xl">
<h4 class="font-oxanium text-lg text-white">会稽山 (模式创新者)</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-purple-300 mb-3">高举高打,潜力与风险并存</p>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-2"><strong class="text-gray-200">优势:</strong>“气泡黄酒”颠覆性创新,利用抖音直播快速引爆,单日千万销售额极具冲击力。</p>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400"><strong class="text-gray-200">潜在风险:</strong>爆品持续性存疑,供应链和线下渠道能否承接线上流量是其从“网红”走向“长红”的关键。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 6. 综合结论与投资启示 -->
<div>
<h3 class="font-oxanium text-xl text-indigo-300 mb-6">综合结论与投资启示</h3>
<div class="space-y-4">
<p><strong class="text-purple-300">概念阶段判断:</strong>处于从“讲故事”向“见业绩”过渡的1.5阶段,下一阶段是“去伪存真”,超额收益将来源于能够用数据兑现逻辑的公司。</p>
<p><strong class="text-purple-300">最具投资价值环节:</strong><br>
1. **高增长赛道+强执行力公司** (如东鹏饮料)<br>
2. **上游“卖水人”** (如代糖、原料果汁供应商)<br>
3. **具备颠覆性创新潜力的细分龙头** (如会稽山)</p>
<div class="p-4 bg-gray-900/50 rounded-xl">
<p class="font-semibold text-indigo-200 mb-2">需重点跟踪和验证的关键指标:</p>
<ul class="grid grid-cols-2 md:grid-cols-4 gap-2 text-sm text-gray-400">
<li>终端动销率 & 复购率</li>
<li>新品毛利率变化</li>
<li>新品收入占比及增速</li>
<li>销售费用率</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Supporting Data Section -->
<section id="supporting-data" x-data="{ tab: 'news' }">
<div class="p-6 md:p-8 glass-card rounded-3xl">
<div role="tablist" class="tabs tabs-boxed bg-black/20 mb-6">
<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'news' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'news'">新闻数据</a>
<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'roadshows' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'roadshows'">路演纪要</a>
<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'reports' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'reports'">研报精粹</a>
</div>
<!-- News Data -->
<div x-show="tab === 'news'" class="space-y-4 text-sm">
<h4 class="font-oxanium text-lg text-indigo-300">核心趋势:</h4>
<p>企业纷纷推出兼具**健康、养生概念**的“传统消费新饮品”,成为短期边际变化及估值修复的关键因素。</p>
<h4 class="font-oxanium text-lg text-indigo-300">各公司新饮品概览:</h4>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2">
<li><strong>均瑶健康:</strong> 低温味动力、每日系列及果蔬汁系列全年目标5000万。</li>
<li><strong>好想你:</strong> 红枣黄芪水、红枣姜茶等预计Q3见效。</li>
<li><strong>古越龙山:</strong> 黄酒啤酒、咖啡黄酒等年轻化新品。</li>
<li><strong>李子园:</strong> 营养素水(维B/维C)极简六零配方全年目标大几千万至1亿。</li>
<li><strong>祖名股份:</strong> 玉米汁、低嘌呤豆浆等今年目标1亿+。</li>
<li><strong>会稽山:</strong> 气泡黄酒抖音直播12小时销售额1000万+。</li>
<li><strong>承德露露:</strong> 露露草本养生饮系列25年目标2亿+。</li>
<li><strong>东鹏饮料:</strong> 果之茶已铺货150+万家终端全年目标5亿+。</li>
<li><strong>燕塘乳业:</strong> 电解质乳酸奶饮品,切入细分赛道。</li>
<li><strong>元气森林:</strong> 无糖茶"好自在"上市四月销售额破亿。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<!-- Roadshow Data -->
<div x-show="tab === 'roadshows'" class="space-y-4 text-sm">
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-black/20">
<input type="radio" name="roadshow-accordion" checked="checked" />
<div class="collapse-title font-medium">东鹏饮料 (2024-04-26)</div>
<div class="collapse-content"><p>明确将**电解质水、无糖茶**作为第二增长曲线;电解质水主打性价比,无糖茶在广东、海南试销;但也提示新品推广需持续教育市场。</p></div>
</div>
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-black/20">
<input type="radio" name="roadshow-accordion" />
<div class="collapse-title font-medium">养元饮品 & 承德露露 (2025-02-03)</div>
<div class="collapse-content"><p>提供了关键的负面反馈养元新品表现不佳终端认可度低东鹏电解质水等新品动销差依赖补贴需3-5年培育期。</p></div>
</div>
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-black/20">
<input type="radio" name="roadshow-accordion" />
<div class="collapse-title font-medium">茶百道 (2025-08-31)</div>
<div class="collapse-content"><p>揭示行业进入**“健康化/功能化”4.0阶段**,以**羽衣甘蓝等“超级食材”**为核心,带动新一轮爆品周期。</p></div>
</div>
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-black/20">
<input type="radio" name="roadshow-accordion" />
<div class="collapse-title font-medium">行业路演 (2025-07-24)</div>
<div class="collapse-content"><p>明确**“健康+”与“情绪+”**为创新趋势。无糖/低糖茶、椰子水增速显著低度酒气泡黄酒线上增速超70%。</p></div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Reports Data -->
<div x-show="tab === 'reports'" class="space-y-4 text-sm">
<h4 class="font-oxanium text-lg text-indigo-300">东鹏饮料系列研报精粹:</h4>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2">
<li><strong>公司战略:</strong> 实施"1+6多品牌战略",采取"少培育、紧跟随"的产品开拓模式,向综合饮料平台转型。</li>
<li><strong>补水啦电解质饮料:</strong> 主打性价比 (市场最低价)迅速放量动销优异24年目标铺货200万家。</li>
<li><strong>乌龙上茶无糖茶:</strong> 处于市场导入期,有望成为第二曲线又一增长点。</li>
<li><strong>海岛椰/VIVI鸡尾酒:</strong> 均具备明显价格优势,作为旺季重点产品推广。</li>
<li><strong>研发合作:</strong> 与天草生物、安徽农大共建研究中心,开发差异化功能的即饮茶大单品。</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="font-oxanium text-lg text-indigo-300">行业趋势研报:</h4>
<p>消费升级驱动需求向**高质量、健康化、多样化**升级。未来转型方向需关注低糖茶饮、益生菌饮料、药食同源滋补饮品等。</p>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Stock Data Section -->
<section id="stock-data">
<div class="p-6 md:p-8 glass-card rounded-3xl">
<h2 class="section-title text-3xl text-indigo-300 mb-8 border-b border-indigo-500/20 pb-4">核心标的 & 涨跌分析</h2>
<!-- Stock List -->
<h3 class="font-oxanium text-xl text-indigo-300 mb-4">新饮品概念股列表</h3>
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<th>股票名称</th>
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<th>核心逻辑</th>
<th>其他标签</th>
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<tr><td>均瑶健康</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=605388" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">605388</a></td><td>公司为益生菌领域的龙头企业,味动力饮品添加三大均瑶明星益生菌</td><td>益生菌</td></tr>
<tr><td>会稽山</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601579" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">601579</a></td><td>在年轻化方面重点打造气泡黄酒的年轻化氛围</td><td>黄酒</td></tr>
<tr><td>东鹏饮料</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=605499" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">605499</a></td><td>核心产品东鹏特饮,添加了牛磺酸;国内功能饮料市场销售规模第一</td><td>牛磺酸</td></tr>
<tr><td>欢乐家</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300997" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">300997</a></td><td>公司椰子水市占率快速提升2024年Q1销量同增180%</td><td>椰子水</td></tr>
<tr><td>祖名股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=003030" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">003030</a></td><td>祖名鲜榨玉米汁</td><td>玉米汁</td></tr>
<tr><td>保龄宝</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002286" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">002286</a></td><td>功能性低聚糖等产品是元气森林、可口可乐、伊利等战略合作伙伴</td><td>代糖</td></tr>
<tr><td>田野股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=920023" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">920023</a></td><td>公司是奈雪的茶、茶百道、蜜雪冰城等原料果汁主要供应商</td><td>北交所</td></tr>
<tr><td>一致魔芋</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=920273" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">920273</a></td><td>公司茶饮小料合作蜜雪冰城、沪上阿姨等</td><td>北交所</td></tr>
<tr><td>古越龙山</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600059" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">600059</a></td><td>公司有推出含玛咖、铁皮石斛、陈皮等药食同源的露酒产品及草本黄酒产品</td><td>黄酒</td></tr>
<tr><td>百润股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002568" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">002568</a></td><td>RIO锐澳”预调鸡尾酒市场占有率连续多年全国第一</td><td>鸡尾酒</td></tr>
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<h3 class="font-oxanium text-xl text-indigo-300 mt-12 mb-4">相关个股异动分析</h3>
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<th>股票</th>
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<th>原因分析</th>
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<td>养元饮品<br><span class="text-xs text-gray-500"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603156" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">603156</a></span></td>
<td>2025-10-09</td>
<td><span class="badge badge-error badge-outline">+6.18%</span></td>
<td><div class="table-reason-cell">核心结论:大幅上涨并非源于主营业务,而是由“跨界投资智元机器人”的传闻引发的市场情绪驱动的投机性行情,与公司基本面完全脱钩。核心逻辑链为:“智元机器人获巨额订单” → “养元是投资人”传闻 → 契合AI/机器人板块狂热情绪 → 投机资金涌入。</div></td>
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<td>海顺新材<br><span class="text-xs text-gray-500"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300501" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">300501</a></span></td>
<td>2025-06-24</td>
<td><span class="badge badge-error badge-outline">+7.18%</span></td>
<td><div class="table-reason-cell">上涨由多重因素驱动1. **核心驱动**市场提前获知公司拟收购正一包装的消息预期业务协同效应。2. **概念催化**公司铝塑膜产品涉及热门的固态电池概念受到板块热度带动。3. **业绩预期**:市场对公司通过降本增效、拓展新业务等方式改善业绩存在预期。</div></td>
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<td>妙可蓝多<br><span class="text-xs text-gray-500"><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600882" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">600882</a></span></td>
<td>2025-08-29</td>
<td><span class="badge badge-error badge-outline">+5.36%</span></td>
<td><div class="table-reason-cell">主要原因是板块联动效应,当日饮料制造板块整体强势拉升。同时,市场存在对奶制品行业周期触底反弹的预期,叠加市场整体环境企稳回升,共同推动股价上涨。</div></td>
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