Files
vf_react/public/htmls/模拟厂商弹性测算.html
2025-12-05 13:29:18 +08:00

418 lines
28 KiB
HTML
Raw Permalink Blame History

This file contains ambiguous Unicode characters

This file contains Unicode characters that might be confused with other characters. If you think that this is intentional, you can safely ignore this warning. Use the Escape button to reveal them.

<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="dark">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<title>深度研报: 模拟厂商弹性测算</title>
<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.10.2/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
<script defer src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js"></script>
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
<style>
@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Poppins:wght@300;400;500;600;700&display=swap');
body {
font-family: 'Poppins', sans-serif;
background-color: #000010;
color: #E0E0E0;
}
.glass-card {
background: rgba(15, 23, 42, 0.6); /* slate-900 with opacity */
backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
border-radius: 1.5rem; /* rounded-3xl */
transition: all 0.3s ease;
}
.glass-card:hover {
background: rgba(30, 41, 59, 0.7); /* slate-800 with opacity */
border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.2);
transform: translateY(-5px);
}
.glow-text {
color: #f0f0f0;
text-shadow: 0 0 8px rgba(0, 255, 255, 0.7), 0 0 16px rgba(0, 255, 255, 0.5);
}
.title-text {
color: #ffffff;
text-shadow: 0 0 10px rgba(74, 222, 128, 0.8), 0 0 20px rgba(74, 222, 128, 0.6);
}
.highlight-text {
color: #67e8f9; /* cyan-300 */
}
.accent-text {
color: #a78bfa; /* violet-400 */
}
.bento-grid {
display: grid;
gap: 1.5rem;
grid-template-columns: repeat(12, 1fr);
}
.bento-item {
grid-column: span 12;
}
@media (min-width: 768px) {
.bento-item-span-4 { grid-column: span 4; }
.bento-item-span-6 { grid-column: span 6; }
.bento-item-span-8 { grid-column: span 8; }
.bento-item-span-12 { grid-column: span 12; }
}
.deep-space-bg {
position: fixed;
top: 0;
left: 0;
width: 100%;
height: 100%;
z-index: -1;
background: #000010;
background-image:
radial-gradient(ellipse at 20% 80%, rgba(147, 51, 234, 0.15) 0%, transparent 50%),
radial-gradient(ellipse at 80% 10%, rgba(37, 99, 235, 0.15) 0%, transparent 50%),
radial-gradient(ellipse at 50% 50%, rgba(22, 163, 74, 0.1) 0%, transparent 50%);
}
.table thead th {
background-color: rgba(30, 41, 59, 0.8);
color: #94a3b8; /* slate-400 */
border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
}
.table tbody tr {
border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.05);
}
.table tbody tr:hover {
background-color: rgba(51, 65, 85, 0.5);
}
</style>
</head>
<body class="min-h-screen">
<div class="deep-space-bg"></div>
<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
<!-- Header -->
<header class="text-center mb-12">
<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold glow-text mb-2">模拟厂商弹性测算</h1>
<p class="text-slate-400">Deep Dive Research Report</p>
<div class="mt-4 text-xs text-slate-500">
由 北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现<br>
本报告为AI合成数据投资需谨慎
</div>
</header>
<!-- Section 1: Concept Insight -->
<section id="insight" class="mb-16">
<div class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
<h2 class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold title-text mb-6 border-l-4 border-green-400 pl-4">概念洞察:国产替代的量化博弈</h2>
<div class="space-y-8 text-slate-300 leading-relaxed">
<div>
<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-cyan-300 mb-3">核心观点摘要</h3>
<p>“模拟厂商弹性测算”概念本质上是<strong class="font-semibold text-white">一个由地缘政治驱动、以量化模型为核心的国产替代主题投资框架</strong>。当前,该概念已走过纯粹的事件驱动阶段,进入了<strong class="font-semibold text-white">基于模型的预期博弈与基本面验证的过渡期</strong>。其核心驱动力源于政策强制打开的高端市场空间,未来潜力则完全取决于国内厂商在<strong class="font-semibold text-violet-400">工业与汽车电子</strong>这两个“深水区”的技术突破与客户认证的实际落地速度。</p>
</div>
<div>
<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-cyan-300 mb-3">概念形成与演进</h3>
<div class="relative pl-6 border-l-2 border-slate-700">
<div class="mb-6">
<div class="absolute w-4 h-4 bg-cyan-400 rounded-full -left-2 mt-1.5 border-4 border-slate-900"></div>
<p class="font-semibold text-slate-200">长期背景 (2018-2024)</p>
<p class="text-sm">中美科技摩擦持续半导体国产替代成共识。但在高端模拟芯片领域TI、ADI等美厂主导国内厂商处于追赶阶段。</p>
</div>
<div class="mb-6">
<div class="absolute w-4 h-4 bg-cyan-400 rounded-full -left-2 mt-1.5 border-4 border-slate-900"></div>
<p class="font-semibold text-slate-200">催化剂酝酿 (2025.03 - 2025.04初)</p>
<p class="text-sm">市场传闻关税或反倾销调查,开始讨论美系厂商在中国<strong class="text-white">约800亿人民币</strong>的理论可替代市场与<strong class="text-white">50亿美元</strong>的中国区收入冲击。</p>
</div>
<div class="mb-6">
<div class="absolute w-4 h-4 bg-green-400 rounded-full -left-2 mt-1.5 border-4 border-slate-900"></div>
<p class="font-semibold text-slate-200">概念形成与量化 (2025.04.11 - 2025.04.17)</p>
<p class="text-sm">卖方分析师发布详细测算方法论:测算美系龙头让出的<strong class="text-white">260亿人民币</strong>市场,再按国内厂商现有份额“切分蛋糕”,得出各公司弹性倍数。概念通过“一张图”等形式迅速传播,引爆市场。</p>
</div>
<div>
<div class="absolute w-4 h-4 bg-cyan-400 rounded-full -left-2 mt-1.5 border-4 border-slate-900"></div>
<p class="font-semibold text-slate-200">深化与扩散 (2025.05至今)</p>
<p class="text-sm">市场围绕该框架持续讨论,研报将“关税博弈”纳入核心驱动因素,逻辑从热点沉淀为机构研究框架。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-cyan-300 mb-3">核心逻辑与预期差</h3>
<ul class="space-y-4">
<li class="flex items-start">
<svg class="w-6 h-6 text-green-400 mr-3 flex-shrink-0" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M9 12l2 2 4-4m6 2a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z"></path></svg>
<div><strong class="text-white">核心驱动力:政策驱动的“市场重划”。</strong> 外部政策冲击强制为国内厂商创造了高端市场的准入机会尤其是在工业87亿和汽车105亿领域。</div>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<svg class="w-6 h-6 text-yellow-400 mr-3 flex-shrink-0" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M12 9v2m0 4h.01m-6.938 4h13.856c1.54 0 2.502-1.667 1.732-3L13.732 4c-.77-1.333-2.694-1.333-3.464 0L3.34 16c-.77 1.333.192 3 1.732 3z"></path></svg>
<div><strong class="text-white">预期差1能力与机会的错配。</strong> 模型假设国内厂商能无缝承接高端份额,但现实中汽车和高端工业存在漫长的验证周期,市场可能高估了份额转移的速度。</div>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<svg class="w-6 h-6 text-yellow-400 mr-3 flex-shrink-0" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M12 9v2m0 4h.01m-6.938 4h13.856c1.54 0 2.502-1.667 1.732-3L13.732 4c-.77-1.333-2.694-1.333-3.464 0L3.34 16c-.77 1.333.192 3 1.732 3z"></path></svg>
<div><strong class="text-white">预期差2收入与利润的鸿沟。</strong> 利润弹性测算基于2021年牛市峰值净利率与当前价格战、高库存187天的行业现实严重脱节存在高估利润弹性的风险。</div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-cyan-300 mb-3">未来发展路径与催化剂</h3>
<p>未来股价的核心驱动力将从“讲故事”转向“看报表”。需重点跟踪和验证的关键指标包括:<strong class="text-white">① 分部收入增速</strong> (特别是汽车和工业业务)、<strong class="text-white">② 毛利率拐点</strong><strong class="text-white">③ 合同负债/预收账款</strong>、以及 <strong class="text-white">④ 关键客户突破公告</strong></p>
</div>
<div>
<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-cyan-300 mb-3">潜在风险与挑战</h3>
<p>技术壁垒、商业化认证周期、利润侵蚀、政策变数和国际竞争是主要风险。此外各信源对可替代市场规模估算260亿至800亿差异巨大利润率假设过于乐观以及关键标的如雅创电子数据缺失都构成了信息交叉验证的风险。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Section 2: Evidence & Methodology -->
<section id="evidence" class="mb-16">
<h2 class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold title-text mb-8 text-center">核心数据与测算框架</h2>
<div class="bento-grid">
<!-- Calculation Methodology -->
<div class="bento-item bento-item-span-12 md:bento-item-span-8 glass-card p-6">
<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-cyan-300 mb-3">弹性测算核心逻辑 (源自新闻)</h3>
<blockquote class="border-l-4 border-slate-600 pl-4 text-slate-400 italic space-y-2 text-sm">
<p>"梳理美国模拟龙头(TI/ADI等)中国区营收(<strong class="text-slate-200 not-italic">约570亿</strong>),算出受影响的海外产能对应营收(<strong class="text-slate-200 not-italic">约260亿</strong>)。"</p>
<p>"这260亿市场由国产公司承接相当于在现有约200亿营收基础上<strong class="text-slate-200 not-italic">翻一番</strong>。"</p>
<p>"测算逻辑是以<strong class="text-slate-200 not-italic">现有厂商的细分领域份额</strong>去分海外让出来的蛋糕。例如纳芯微车规占比高则在出让的105亿车规市场中有望也占到<strong class="text-slate-200 not-italic">同样比例(40%)</strong>。"</p>
<p>"最后将各领域潜在市场加总,再除以厂商原来营收,去算<strong class="text-slate-200 not-italic">弹性倍数</strong>。"</p>
</blockquote>
<p class="text-xs text-slate-500 mt-3">来源: 【东吴电子陈海进】如何测算反制关税对模拟芯片影响? (2025-04-13)</p>
</div>
<!-- Market Size -->
<div class="bento-item bento-item-span-12 md:bento-item-span-4 glass-card p-6 flex flex-col justify-center">
<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-cyan-300 mb-3">市场替代空间 (亿 RMB)</h3>
<div class="space-y-3">
<div class="flex justify-between items-baseline">
<span class="text-slate-400">可替代总市场</span>
<span class="text-3xl font-bold text-white">260</span>
</div>
<div class="flex justify-between items-baseline">
<span class="text-slate-400">汽车领域</span>
<span class="text-2xl font-semibold accent-text">105</span>
</div>
<div class="flex justify-between items-baseline">
<span class="text-slate-400">工业领域</span>
<span class="text-2xl font-semibold accent-text">87</span>
</div>
<div class="flex justify-between items-baseline">
<span class="text-slate-400">消费领域</span>
<span class="text-2xl font-semibold accent-text">43</span>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Elasticity Numbers -->
<div class="bento-item bento-item-span-12 md:bento-item-span-6 glass-card p-6">
<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-cyan-300 mb-3">收入/利润弹性测算 (源自路演)</h3>
<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm mb-4">关税政策落地后,国产厂商潜在增长倍数:</p>
<div class="grid grid-cols-2 gap-4 text-center">
<div>
<p class="text-sm text-slate-500">纳芯微 (收入弹性)</p>
<p class="text-4xl font-bold text-white">300%</p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="text-sm text-slate-500">思瑞浦 (利润弹性)</p>
<p class="text-4xl font-bold accent-text">900%</p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="text-sm text-slate-500">雅创电子 (收入弹性)</p>
<p class="text-4xl font-bold text-white">400%+ </p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="text-sm text-slate-500">圣邦股份 (利润弹性)</p>
<p class="text-4xl font-bold accent-text">450%</p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="text-xs text-slate-500 mt-3">注意利润弹性基于2021Q2牛市净利率存在高估风险。</p>
</div>
<!-- Research Report Summary -->
<div class="bento-item bento-item-span-12 md:bento-item-span-6 glass-card p-6">
<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-cyan-300 mb-3">研报观点:思瑞浦 (3PEAK)</h3>
<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm text-slate-300">
<li class="flex items-start">
<span class="text-green-400 mr-2"></span> <div><strong class="text-white">核心驱动:</strong>关税博弈升级,美系芯片成本攀升,国产替代加速。</div>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<span class="text-green-400 mr-2"></span> <div><strong class="text-white">业务扩张:</strong>并购创芯微,补齐电池管理芯片,形成信号链+电源+电池管理平台。</div>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<span class="text-green-400 mr-2"></span> <div><strong class="text-white">财务预测:</strong>预计2025年营收增速<strong class="highlight-text">+45.3%</strong>,归母净利润由-1.95亿<strong class="highlight-text">扭亏为盈至1.26亿</strong></div>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<span class="text-green-400 mr-2"></span> <div><strong class="text-white">弹性来源:</strong>量(替代份额)+价(竞争力)+成本优化+产品矩阵完善。</div>
</li>
</ul>
<p class="text-xs text-slate-500 mt-3">来源: 研报 (2025-04-17)</p>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Section 3: Quantitative Analysis Chart -->
<section id="chart-section" class="mb-16">
<h2 class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold title-text mb-8 text-center">核心厂商收入弹性对比</h2>
<div class="glass-card p-4 md:p-6">
<div id="elasticity-chart" style="width: 100%; height: 500px;"></div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Section 4: Stock Table -->
<section id="stock-list">
<h2 class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-bold title-text mb-8 text-center">关联个股及弹性测算数据</h2>
<div class="glass-card overflow-x-auto">
<table class="table w-full text-sm">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>股票名称</th>
<th>总收入(亿)</th>
<th>汽车+工业占比</th>
<th>总营收增量(亿)</th>
<th class="text-cyan-300">收入弹性</th>
<th>核心逻辑/备注</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<!-- Data will be populated by JS -->
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p class="text-xs text-slate-500 mt-4 text-center">数据来源: 股票数据 - 模拟厂商弹性测算(250914)</p>
</section>
<footer class="text-center mt-16 text-xs text-slate-600">
<p>免责声明本报告由AI生成所有信息仅供研究参考不构成任何投资建议。</p>
<p>市场有风险,投资需谨慎。</p>
<p>&copy; 2024 北京价值前沿科技有限公司. All Rights Reserved.</p>
</footer>
</div>
<script>
document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function () {
// Stock data
const stockData = {
"纳芯微": { "stock_code": "688052", "总收入(亿人民币)": 19.6, "汽车+工业占比": "87.0%", "总营收增量": 27.24, "收入弹性": "138.97%", "reason": "国内模拟厂商受益于反倾销带来的潜在市场增量。备注三年单车价值量达到3000元。" },
"思瑞浦": { "stock_code": "688536", "总收入(亿人民币)": 12.2, "汽车+工业占比": "80.0%", "总营收增量": 15.83, "收入弹性": "129.78%", "reason": "国内模拟厂商受益于反倾销带来的潜在市场增量。备注通信25%-30%。" },
"圣邦股份": { "stock_code": "300661", "总收入(亿人民币)": 26.16, "汽车+工业占比": "54.0%", "总营收增量": 25.02, "收入弹性": "95.64%", "reason": "国内模拟厂商受益于反倾销带来的潜在市场增量。备注汽车预计未来3-5年提高到10%。" },
"杰华特": { "stock_code": "688141", "总收入(亿人民币)": 16.86, "汽车+工业占比": "50.0%", "总营收增量": 15.24, "收入弹性": "90.39%", "reason": "国内模拟厂商受益于反倾销带来的潜在市场增量。备注计算10-15%通信30%。" },
"艾为电子": { "stock_code": "688798", "总收入(亿人民币)": 29.33, "汽车+工业占比": "35.0%", "总营收增量": 20.73, "收入弹性": "70.69%", "reason": "国内模拟厂商受益于反倾销带来的潜在市场增量。备注工业包括AIOT等泛工业纯工业为工业占比的40%。" },
"晶丰明源": { "stock_code": "688368", "总收入(亿人民币)": 15.04, "汽车+工业占比": "31.0%", "总营收增量": 9.84, "收入弹性": "65.44%", "reason": "国内模拟厂商,受益于反倾销带来的潜在市场增量。备注:电机驱动和高性能计算都计入工业。" },
"帝奥微": { "stock_code": "688381", "总收入(亿人民币)": 5.26, "汽车+工业占比": "28.8%", "总营收增量": 3.29, "收入弹性": "62.55%", "reason": "国内模拟厂商,受益于反倾销带来的潜在市场增量。备注:将公共安防计入工业。" },
"芯海科技": { "stock_code": "688595", "总收入(亿人民币)": 7.02, "汽车+工业占比": "25.0%", "总营收增量": 4.04, "收入弹性": "57.56%", "reason": "国内模拟厂商受益于反倾销带来的潜在市场增量。备注车规MCU BMS。" },
"芯朋微": { "stock_code": "688508", "总收入(亿人民币)": 9.65, "汽车+工业占比": "17.0%", "总营收增量": 4.54, "收入弹性": "47.05%", "reason": "国内模拟厂商,受益于反倾销带来的潜在市场增量。备注:重点布局光储充算等新工业领域。" },
"力芯微": { "stock_code": "688601", "总收入(亿人民币)": 7.87, "汽车+工业占比": "17.0%", "总营收增量": 3.71, "收入弹性": "47.05%", "reason": "国内模拟厂商,受益于反倾销带来的潜在市场增量。" },
"南芯科技": { "stock_code": "688484", "总收入(亿人民币)": 25.67, "汽车+工业占比": "16.0%", "总营收增量": 11.74, "收入弹性": "45.74%", "reason": "国内模拟厂商,受益于反倾销带来的潜在市场增量。备注:智慧能源计入工业。" },
"希荻微": { "stock_code": "688173", "总收入(亿人民币)": 5.45, "汽车+工业占比": "5.0%", "总营收增量": 1.71, "收入弹性": "31.29%", "reason": "国内模拟厂商,受益于反倾销带来的潜在市场增量。备注:主要以消费电子为主。" },
"美芯晟": { "stock_code": "688458", "总收入(亿人民币)": 4.04, "汽车+工业占比": "0.0%", "总营收增量": 1.0, "收入弹性": "24.73%", "reason": "国内模拟厂商,受益于反倾销带来的潜在市场增量。备注:光学传感进入扫地机器人。" }
};
// Populate table
const tableBody = document.querySelector('#stock-list tbody');
Object.entries(stockData).forEach(([name, data]) => {
const row = document.createElement('tr');
row.innerHTML = `
<td class="font-semibold text-white">
<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=${data.stock_code}" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300 transition-colors">
${name} <span class="text-slate-500 text-xs">${data.stock_code}</span>
</a>
</td>
<td>${data['总收入(亿人民币)']}</td>
<td>
<div class="radial-progress bg-slate-700 text-cyan-400 border-4 border-slate-700" style="--value:${parseFloat(data['汽车+工业占比'])}; --size:3rem; --thickness: 4px;" role="progressbar">${data['汽车+工业占比']}</div>
</td>
<td>${data['总营收增量']}</td>
<td class="font-bold text-lg text-cyan-300">${data['收入弹性']}</td>
<td class="text-slate-400">${data.reason}</td>
`;
tableBody.appendChild(row);
});
// ECharts initialization
var myChart = echarts.init(document.getElementById('elasticity-chart'));
const chartData = Object.entries(stockData)
.map(([name, data]) => ({
name: name,
value: parseFloat(data['收入弹性'])
}))
.sort((a, b) => b.value - a.value);
var option = {
backgroundColor: 'transparent',
tooltip: {
trigger: 'axis',
axisPointer: { type: 'shadow' },
backgroundColor: 'rgba(15, 23, 42, 0.8)',
borderColor: 'rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1)',
textStyle: { color: '#E0E0E0' },
formatter: '{b}: <strong style="color:#67e8f9;">{c}%</strong>'
},
grid: {
left: '3%',
right: '4%',
bottom: '3%',
containLabel: true
},
xAxis: {
type: 'value',
boundaryGap: [0, 0.01],
axisLabel: { color: '#94a3b8', formatter: '{value}%' },
splitLine: { lineStyle: { color: 'rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1)' } }
},
yAxis: {
type: 'category',
data: chartData.map(item => item.name).reverse(),
axisLabel: { color: '#E0E0E0' }
},
series: [
{
name: '收入弹性',
type: 'bar',
data: chartData.map(item => item.value).reverse(),
itemStyle: {
color: new echarts.graphic.LinearGradient(1, 0, 0, 0, [
{ offset: 0, color: '#22d3ee' }, // cyan-400
{ offset: 1, color: '#06b6d4' } // cyan-500
]),
borderRadius: [0, 5, 5, 0],
},
emphasis: {
itemStyle: {
color: new echarts.graphic.LinearGradient(1, 0, 0, 0, [
{ offset: 0, color: '#67e8f9' }, // cyan-300
{ offset: 1, color: '#22d3ee' } // cyan-400
]),
}
},
label: {
show: true,
position: 'right',
formatter: '{c}%',
color: '#E0E0E0'
}
}
]
};
myChart.setOption(option);
window.addEventListener('resize', function(){
myChart.resize();
});
});
</script>
</body>
</html>