484 lines
31 KiB
HTML
484 lines
31 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>稀土 (Rare Earth) - 深度投研报告</title>
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<style>
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body {
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font-family: 'Exo 2', 'Noto Sans SC', sans-serif;
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background: #000010;
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background-image:
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radial-gradient(ellipse 80% 80% at 50% -20%, rgba(30, 30, 80, 0.4), rgba(255, 255, 255, 0)),
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grid-template-columns: repeat(6, 1fr);
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</head>
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<body class="min-h-screen">
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center mb-12">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold title-glow tracking-widest">稀土 (RARE EARTH)</h1>
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<p class="text-lg md:text-xl text-info mt-2">深度战略价值重估 · 投研报告</p>
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</header>
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<!-- Main Content -->
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<main class="space-y-12">
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<!-- Bento Grid Overview -->
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<section class="bento-grid">
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<div class="col-span-6 md:col-span-4 row-span-2 glass-card p-6 flex flex-col justify-between bento-item">
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<div>
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-info mb-4">核心观点摘要</h2>
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<p class="text-slate-300 leading-relaxed">
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稀土概念已从传统的周期性资源炒作，质变为由国家意志驱动的<strong class="text-primary-focus">战略资产价值重估</strong>。
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其核心驱动力是<strong class="text-secondary">政策引发的确定性供给收缩</strong>与<strong class="text-accent">下游应用驱动的结构性需求增长</strong>之间的深刻错配。
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当前市场正处政策效应逐步显现、价格中枢系统性抬升的初期，未来潜力取决于全球供应链重构的博弈结果以及新兴需求的兑现程度。
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</p>
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</div>
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<div class="mt-4">
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<div class="stat bg-transparent p-0">
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<div class="stat-title text-slate-400">核心驱动</div>
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<div class="stat-value text-xl text-glow">供给秩序重塑</div>
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<div class="stat-desc text-slate-400">中国掌控全球约92%的稀土供给</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="col-span-6 md:col-span-2 row-span-1 glass-card p-6 bento-item">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-info mb-2">关键催化剂</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-2 text-slate-300">
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<li><span class="text-accent mr-2">▶</span>缅甸供给局势明确化</li>
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<li><span class="text-accent mr-2">▶</span>新一批稀土指标公布</li>
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<li><span class="text-accent mr-2">▶</span>出口管制许可证发放情况</li>
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<li><span class="text-accent mr-2">▶</span>上游企业盈利拐点验证</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="col-span-6 md:col-span-2 row-span-1 glass-card p-6 bento-item">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-info mb-2">最高价值环节</h3>
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<p class="text-3xl font-bold text-glow">上游资源端</p>
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<p class="text-slate-400 mt-2">寡头垄断，议价力最强，直接受益于价格上涨。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="col-span-6 glass-card p-6 bento-item">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-info mb-4">氧化镨钕价格走势 & 预测 (万元/吨)</h2>
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<div id="priceChart" style="width: 100%; height: 300px;"></div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Insight Analysis -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-6 text-center title-glow">深度洞察分析 (Insight)</h2>
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<div class="space-y-8">
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<!-- Core Logic -->
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold text-info mb-4 border-l-4 border-info pl-4">概念核心逻辑：供给侧改革2.0</h3>
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<div class="prose max-w-none prose-invert prose-p:text-slate-300 prose-strong:text-cyan-300">
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<p>本次稀土概念的根本逻辑，并非简单的供需缺口，而是<strong>国家层面的、全产业链的、不可逆的供给秩序重塑</strong>。</p>
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<ol>
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<li><strong>供给总量的“天花板”：</strong>通过《稀土管理条例》，首次将<strong>进口矿</strong>与国内矿统一纳入总量控制指标。路演数据显示，此前占全球供给20%-25%的“体系外”进口矿分离产能被“无效化”。2024年指标增速已放缓至5.88%（vs 2023年21%），供给高度刚性化。</li>
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<li><strong>产业链控制力的“护城河”：</strong>2025年10月的出口管制，史无前例地扩展到<strong>核心设备、关键辅料和全套技术</strong>。这极大地增加了海外重建独立产业链的成本和时间，强化了中国的全球定价权。</li>
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<li><strong>地缘政治的“放大器”：</strong>缅甸矿供应中断（占国内重稀土40%）和中美贸易摩擦是供给收缩的“加速剂”。美国国防部对MP公司提供远高于市价的保底价，印证了海外对供应链安全的极度焦虑。</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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</div>
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<hr class="glow-divider my-8">
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<!-- Market Perception & Discrepancy -->
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold text-info mb-4 border-l-4 border-info pl-4">市场认知与预期差</h3>
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<div class="prose max-w-none prose-invert prose-p:text-slate-300 prose-strong:text-cyan-300">
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<p>市场热度极高，普遍形成“供给收缩+需求增长=价格上涨”的共识。然而，认知存在层次差异与预期差：</p>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>盈利兑现的预期差：</strong>市场对价格上涨预期充分，但忽略了盈利传导的时滞。研报显示，北方稀土2024上半年净利大幅下滑，中国稀土Q1计提存货减值。价格上涨初期可能出现“增收不增利”的阶段性情况。</li>
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<li><strong>政策执行力度的预期差：</strong>市场普遍认为政策将严格执行，但路演中提到“政策全面落地可能需2-5年”，暗示了过程的复杂性和渐进性。短期“抢出口”行为可能导致后续需求“断档”。</li>
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<li><strong>海外建厂难度的预期差：</strong>市场可能低估了2025年10月新规对海外重建产业链的打击。失去中国的设备、辅料和技术，海外重建高效、低成本分离体系几乎不可能。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<hr class="glow-divider my-8">
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<!-- Future Path -->
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold text-info mb-4 border-l-4 border-info pl-4">未来发展路径</h3>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<div class="border border-purple-500/30 p-4 rounded-2xl">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-xl text-purple-300">第一阶段：政策驱动与价格重估 (当前)</h4>
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<p class="mt-2 text-slate-400">核心是供给端出清和秩序重建。标志是两大集团完成对体系外产能整合，价格中枢稳定在新高位。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="border border-cyan-500/30 p-4 rounded-2xl">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-xl text-cyan-300">第二阶段：需求驱动与结构分化</h4>
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<p class="mt-2 text-slate-400">焦点转向下游需求。<strong>人形机器人</strong>（单机用量为电动车2倍）、低空经济等新兴领域能否放量是关键。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="border border-amber-500/30 p-4 rounded-2xl">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-xl text-amber-300">第三阶段：全球博弈与价值链升级</h4>
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<p class="mt-2 text-slate-400">中国利用稀土战略地位进行高科技博弈，同时国内产业链向高附加值永磁材料等领域纵深发展。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<hr class="glow-divider my-8">
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<!-- Risks -->
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold text-red-400 mb-4 border-l-4 border-red-400 pl-4">潜在风险与挑战</h3>
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<div class="prose max-w-none prose-invert prose-p:text-slate-300 prose-strong:text-red-300">
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<ul>
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<li><strong>技术风险：</strong><strong>“无镝磁材”</strong>等替代技术若取得突破，可能削弱重稀土的战略价值。</li>
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<li><strong>商业化风险：</strong>价格持续暴涨可能抑制下游需求，或倒逼下游加速研发无稀土替代方案（如特斯拉曾探讨的无稀土电机）。</li>
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<li><strong>政策与竞争风险：</strong>若价格过高影响国内战略产业，不排除政策转向“保供稳价”。同时，海外会不计成本加速构建“去中国化”供应链。</li>
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<li><strong>信息交叉验证风险：</strong>缅甸供应情况极不稳定，时断时续，市场可能过度反应。同时，市场火爆的价格预期与龙头公司短期糟糕的财报形成鲜明矛盾。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Supporting Data -->
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<section x-data="{ tab: 'news' }" class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<div class="tabs tabs-boxed bg-black/30 w-full md:w-auto mx-auto mb-6">
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<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'news' }" @click="tab = 'news'">新闻动态</a>
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<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'roadshow' }" @click="tab = 'roadshow'">路演纪要</a>
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<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'research' }" @click="tab = 'research'">研报精粹</a>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'news'" class="space-y-4">
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<h4 class="text-xl font-bold text-info">中国稀土管制政策全面升级 (2025年10月)</h4>
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<p>商务部等多部门发布多项公告，实现从物项到技术的全产业链管控，并首次提出“长臂管辖”，覆盖使用中国稀土技术/成分的境外再出口，与半导体、AI等前沿科技挂钩，战略价值持续提升。</p>
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<h4 class="text-xl font-bold text-info">进口矿纳入总量调控 (2025年8月)</h4>
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<p>《稀土开采和稀土冶炼分离总量调控管理暂行办法》发布，明确将进口矿纳入总量指标，封堵政策灰色地带。</p>
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<h4 class="text-xl font-bold text-info">市场动态：价格快速走高 & 供需紧张</h4>
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<p>氧化镨钕价格从24年底的40万/吨涨至45万/吨，8月以来平均上涨超10万元/吨。供给端因指标管控和缅甸矿中断而收紧，需求端因“抢出口”及新能源、机器人等需求而旺盛。</p>
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<h4 class="text-xl font-bold text-info">地缘政治：缅甸供应中断</h4>
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<p>缅甸（占我国重稀土矿源40%）稀土矿开采停滞，边境关闭，导致原料进口受阻。若封关持续，分离厂将面临原料短缺。</p>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'roadshow'" class="space-y-4">
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<h4 class="text-xl font-bold text-info">政策核心：92%全球供给受控</h4>
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<p>新规将进口矿、独居石等全部纳入管控，预计中国实际掌控全球70%-75%稀土供给。体系外（占全球供给20%-25%）产能被“无效化”，将逐步收归两大集团。</p>
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<h4 class="text-xl font-bold text-info">供给扰动：缅甸矿停滞 & 库存极低</h4>
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<p>缅甸矿进口自2023年12月后停滞，国内离子矿库存极低，分离厂面临“零库存”压力，加剧供给收缩预期。</p>
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<h4 class="text-xl font-bold text-info">价格预测：上涨预期强烈</h4>
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<p>市场普遍预期若缅甸矿断供，氧化镨钕价格将升至60万元/吨以上，有观点认为中枢上看80万/吨，明年或冲击130万元/吨。</p>
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<h4 class="text-xl font-bold text-info">新兴需求：机器人成新增长极</h4>
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<p>人形机器人、低空经济对高性能磁材需求提升。机器人单机用量是新能源汽车的2倍以上。</p>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'research'" class="space-y-4">
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<h4 class="text-xl font-bold text-info">供给指标：增速放缓，供应趋紧</h4>
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<p>2024年全年稀土开采指标27.0万吨，同比增速放缓至5.88% (2023年为+21%)。中重稀土指标尤其严控。2025年政策征求意见稿进一步确认将进口矿纳入管控。</p>
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<h4 class="text-xl font-bold text-info">需求预测：结构性高增长</h4>
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<p>新能源汽车占高性能钕铁硼需求已达42%。预计2024-2026年氧化镨钕需求年均复合增长超13%。节能电机、人形机器人提供额外增长动力。</p>
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<h4 class="text-xl font-bold text-info">供需平衡：由过剩转向短缺</h4>
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<p>测算显示，2024年4月镨钕氧化物已由过剩转为短缺。预计到2026年，供需缺口将达到-1.27万吨（2023年为过剩1.36万吨）。</p>
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<h4 class="text-xl font-bold text-info">重点公司：龙头盈利短期承压</h4>
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<p>因稀土价格前期下滑，中国稀土2024年Q1计提大额存货减值导致亏损；北方稀土2024上半年归母净利同比下滑95.70%。盈利修复有待价格回升后的财报验证。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stocks Table -->
|
||
<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-6 text-center title-glow">产业链全景 & 核心标的</h2>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 上游资源 -->
|
||
<div class="mb-8">
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold text-info mb-4">上游：稀土资源与冶炼分离</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑 / 市场地位</th>
|
||
<th>标签</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600111" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-primary">北方稀土 (600111)</a></td>
|
||
<td>稀土市占率第一（采/炼配额占比~70%），轻稀土霸主，拥有白云鄂博矿独家开采权。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-info">轻稀土</div><div class="badge badge-outline">龙头</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000831" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-primary">中国稀土 (000831)</a></td>
|
||
<td>稀土市占率第二（采/炼配额占比~30%），主导南方离子型重稀土市场，集团资产注入预期强。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-secondary">重稀土</div><div class="badge badge-outline">龙头</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600010" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-primary">包钢股份 (600010)</a></td>
|
||
<td>控股股东拥有世界第一大稀土矿白云鄂博，向北方稀土供应稀土精矿。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-info">轻稀土</div><div class="badge badge-outline">资源关联</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600259" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-primary">广晟有色 (600259)</a></td>
|
||
<td>广东唯一稀土合法开采人，控制中重稀土资源超12万吨，已划转至中国稀土集团。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-secondary">重稀土</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600549" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-primary">厦门钨业 (600549)</a></td>
|
||
<td>与中国稀土集团成立合资公司运营稀土业务，并拥有1.2万吨钕铁硼产能。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-secondary">重稀土</div><div class="badge badge-accent">钕铁硼</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600392" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-primary">盛和资源 (600392)</a></td>
|
||
<td>产能7.2万吨，参股美国MP公司并包销其产品，业务多元化。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-info">轻稀土</div><div class="badge badge-outline">海外关联</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 中游永磁 -->
|
||
<div class="mb-8">
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold text-accent mb-4">中游：稀土永磁材料 (钕铁硼)</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>产能/核心逻辑</th>
|
||
<th>标签</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300748" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-accent">金力永磁 (300748)</a></td>
|
||
<td>产能3.8万吨(2024年)，高性能钕铁硼龙头。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-accent">钕铁硼</div><div class="badge badge-outline">龙头</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000970" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-accent">中科三环 (000970)</a></td>
|
||
<td>产能2.5万吨，部分订单已获出口许可。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-accent">钕铁硼</div><div class="badge badge-warning">出口许可</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300224" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-accent">正海磁材 (300224)</a></td>
|
||
<td>产能2.08万吨，新的出口许可证陆续获批。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-accent">钕铁硼</div><div class="badge badge-warning">出口许可</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600366" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-accent">宁波韵升 (600366)</a></td>
|
||
<td>产能2.1万吨。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-accent">钕铁硼</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688077" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-accent">大地熊 (688077)</a></td>
|
||
<td>产能0.46万吨，已陆续取得出口至美、欧、东盟等地的许可证。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-accent">钕铁硼</div><div class="badge badge-warning">出口许可</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000795" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-accent">英洛华 (000795)</a></td>
|
||
<td>产能0.63万吨，已有少量订单获批出口许可证。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-accent">钕铁硼</div><div class="badge badge-warning">出口许可</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 其他 -->
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold text-slate-400 mb-4">其他：稀土回收、技术及弱关联</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑</th>
|
||
<th>标签</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002645" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">华宏科技 (002645)</a></td>
|
||
<td>钕铁硼产能1.5万吨，同时涉及稀土回收业务。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-accent">钕铁硼</div><div class="badge badge-success">稀土回收</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600281" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">华阳新材 (600281)</a></td>
|
||
<td>子公司主营稀土高磁性材料的回收、利用和加工。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-success">稀土回收</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=920505" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">九菱科技 (920505)</a></td>
|
||
<td>北交所公司，2024年研发稀土永磁材料并部分量产。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-ghost">北交所</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002056" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">横店东磁 (002056)</a></td>
|
||
<td>永磁铁氧体产能国内第一，非稀土永磁龙头。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-ghost">永磁铁氧体</div><div class="badge badge-outline">弱关联</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Footer -->
|
||
<footer class="text-center mt-12 py-6 border-t border-gray-800">
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-500">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现</p>
|
||
<p class="text-xs text-gray-600 mt-1">本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。</p>
|
||
</footer>
|
||
</div>
|
||
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
||
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|
||
</html> |