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vf_react/public/htmls/羽绒.html
2025-12-05 13:29:18 +08:00

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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<title>羽绒概念 - 深度行业研究</title>
<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.10.2/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
<script defer src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.14.0/dist/cdn.min.js"></script>
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
<style>
@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Noto+Sans+SC:wght@300;400;500;700&family=Orbitron:wght@400;700&display=swap');
body {
font-family: 'Noto Sans SC', sans-serif;
background-color: #0a0a1a;
color: #e0e0e0;
overflow-x: hidden;
-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;
-moz-osx-font-smoothing: grayscale;
}
.fui-title {
font-family: 'Orbitron', sans-serif;
text-shadow: 0 0 5px rgba(0, 255, 255, 0.7), 0 0 10px rgba(0, 255, 255, 0.5);
}
.glass-card {
background: rgba(18, 24, 45, 0.6);
backdrop-filter: blur(12px);
-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(12px);
border: 1px solid rgba(59, 130, 246, 0.2);
box-shadow: 0 8px 32px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.37);
transition: all 0.3s ease;
}
.glass-card:hover {
border-color: rgba(59, 130, 246, 0.5);
transform: translateY(-5px);
}
.bento-grid {
display: grid;
gap: 1rem;
grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fit, minmax(300px, 1fr));
}
.glow-effect {
position: fixed;
top: 50%;
left: 50%;
width: 1200px;
height: 1200px;
transform: translate(-50%, -50%);
background: radial-gradient(circle, rgba(29, 78, 216, 0.15) 0%, rgba(29, 78, 216, 0) 60%);
z-index: -1;
pointer-events: none;
}
.section-header {
border-left: 4px solid #3b82f6;
padding-left: 1rem;
margin-bottom: 1.5rem;
}
.section-header h2 {
font-size: 1.8rem;
font-weight: 700;
}
.timeline {
position: relative;
padding: 2rem 0;
}
.timeline::before {
content: '';
position: absolute;
left: 50%;
top: 0;
bottom: 0;
width: 2px;
background-color: rgba(59, 130, 246, 0.2);
transform: translateX(-50%);
}
.timeline-item {
position: relative;
width: 50%;
padding: 0 2rem;
margin-bottom: 2rem;
}
.timeline-item:nth-child(odd) {
left: 0;
padding-right: 4rem;
}
.timeline-item:nth-child(even) {
left: 50%;
padding-left: 4rem;
}
.timeline-dot {
position: absolute;
top: 0;
width: 16px;
height: 16px;
background-color: #3b82f6;
border-radius: 50%;
border: 3px solid #0a0a1a;
z-index: 1;
}
.timeline-item:nth-child(odd) .timeline-dot {
right: -8px;
transform: translateX(50%);
}
.timeline-item:nth-child(even) .timeline-dot {
left: -8px;
transform: translateX(-50%);
}
.timeline-content {
position: relative;
}
</style>
</head>
<body class="min-h-screen">
<div class="glow-effect"></div>
<div x-data="pageData()" class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
<header class="text-center mb-12">
<h1 class="fui-title text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold tracking-widest text-white">羽绒 Down Feather</h1>
<p class="mt-4 text-lg text-blue-300">深度行业研究报告</p>
<p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-2">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现本报告为AI合成数据投资需谨慎。</p>
</header>
<!-- Bento Grid Insight Summary -->
<section class="mb-16">
<div class="section-header">
<h2 class="fui-title">概念洞察 · 核心摘要</h2>
</div>
<div class="bento-grid">
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 col-span-1 md:col-span-2">
<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-cyan-300 mb-3">核心观点摘要</h3>
<p class="text-gray-300">羽绒概念本质上是一个由**上游供给刚性**与**下游需求脉冲**共同驱动的强周期性商品主题。当前,该概念已走过由极端天气催化的价格顶峰,进入**高位震荡、基本面与情绪面博弈**的阶段。其核心驱动力正从单纯的“涨价”逻辑,向**行业集中度提升、品牌价值凸显和质量标准重塑**的逻辑演进,未来潜力在于龙头企业穿越周期的能力和行业洗牌后的新格局。</p>
</div>
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-cyan-300 mb-3">核心驱动力</h3>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-300">
<li><strong class="text-white">供给端刚性收缩:</strong>上游养殖业产能去化,供给缺乏弹性。</li>
<li><strong class="text-white">需求端脉冲式爆发:</strong>寒潮、冰雪经济引爆短期需求。</li>
<li><strong class="text-white">成本传导与替代:</strong>棉花等原料涨价提供比价支撑。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-red-400 mb-3">潜在风险与挑战</h3>
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-300">
<li><strong class="text-white">价格大幅回调风险:</strong>价格拐点已现,追高风险巨大。</li>
<li><strong class="text-white">行业信任危机:</strong>“假羽绒”事件动摇消费者信心。</li>
<li><strong class="text-white">下游竞争加剧:</strong>运动、快时尚品牌入局,侵蚀利润。</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Concept Evolution Timeline -->
<section class="mb-16">
<div class="section-header">
<h2 class="fui-title">概念行情 · 演进脉络</h2>
</div>
<div class="timeline">
<div class="timeline-item">
<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
<div class="timeline-content glass-card rounded-2xl p-6">
<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-blue-300">背景期 (2023 - 2024 H1)</h3>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">供给收缩 & 价格温和上涨</p>
<p class="mt-2 text-gray-300">受肉鸭行业产能去化影响鸭养殖量从高点48亿羽/年降至40-42亿羽/年供给偏紧。90%白鸭绒价格从3500元/吨涨至5380元/吨涨幅超53%,景气上行通道开启。</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item">
<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
<div class="timeline-content glass-card rounded-2xl p-6">
<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-blue-300">催化与爆发期 (2024 Q4)</h3>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">极端天气引爆需求 & 价格飙升</p>
<p class="mt-2 text-gray-300">全国性寒潮引爆下游需求高克重羽绒服成主流。90%白鸭绒价格飙升至58万元/吨鹅绒达98万元/吨。下游龙头波司登股价大涨10%,市场热度达到顶峰。</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item">
<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
<div class="timeline-content glass-card rounded-2xl p-6">
<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-blue-300">分化与整顿期 (2024年底 - 2025年初)</h3>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">造假曝光 & 价格高位回落</p>
<p class="mt-2 text-gray-300">央视曝光“以丝代绒”造假引发行业信任危机监管介入。路演数据显示羽绒价格于24年10月见顶后回落10%-20%,市场进入博弈和消化库存阶段,企业策略出现分化。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Price Chart -->
<section class="mb-16">
<div class="section-header">
<h2 class="fui-title">行情数据 · 价格走势</h2>
</div>
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6" x-init="initChart()">
<div id="priceChart" style="width: 100%; height: 400px;"></div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Detailed Insight -->
<section class="mb-16">
<div class="section-header">
<h2 class="fui-title">深度洞察 · 逻辑与推演</h2>
</div>
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 space-y-6 text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">
<div>
<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-cyan-300 mb-3">市场认知与预期差分析</h3>
<p>市场普遍认知(主要来自新闻)是羽绒价格持续飙升并维持高位。然而,华英农业在路演中明确指出,价格在**2024年10月见顶后已回落10%-20%**。这构成了最核心的预期差意味着单纯追逐“涨价”逻辑的投资已进入高风险区。此外市场对富安娜“囤货优势”的认知也存在预期差价格拐点使其策略从“蜜糖”变为“砒霜”的风险被低估。最后对华英农业“龙头”地位的认知也存在偏差其90%原料外采,使其成本端风险敞口巨大,并非真正的“一体化”掌控者。</p>
</div>
<div>
<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-cyan-300 mb-3">关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h3>
<p><strong class="text-white">近期催化剂:</strong>针对“假羽绒”事件的监管政策落地将加速行业洗牌利好规范化龙头。2025年春季下游品牌的备货订单规模和价格将是验证需求的关键信号。相关公司年报/一季报的业绩兑现情况将是核心验证点。</p>
<p class="mt-2"><strong class="text-white">长期发展路径:</strong>产业集中度将持续提升。龙头企业将实现从“原料”到功能性“材料”的升级提升附加值。应用场景将从服装拓展至渗透率仅5%的羽绒寝具及军工、户外等专业领域,打开新增长空间。</p>
</div>
<div>
<h3 class="font-bold text-xl text-cyan-300 mb-3">综合结论与投资启示</h3>
<p>羽绒概念已从**纯粹的主题炒作阶段,过渡到基本面驱动与周期博弈并存的阶段**。价格高点已过单纯博弈涨价的窗口期基本关闭。市场的焦点将转向业绩兑现、行业格局重塑以及龙头企业的Alpha能力。</p>
<p class="mt-2"><strong class="text-white">最具投资价值环节:</strong><br>1. **下游品牌龙头(确定性最高):** 以<strong class="text-amber-300">波司登</strong>为代表,其品牌护城河和定价权能有效抵御成本波动,是穿越周期的稳健选择。<br>2. **中游加工龙头(弹性最大,风险也最大):** 以<strong class="text-amber-300">古麒绒材</strong>为代表,业绩与价格强相关,适合周期投资者。在行业洗牌中,其市场份额有望提升。</p>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Industry Chain -->
<section class="mb-16">
<div class="section-header">
<h2 class="fui-title">产业链图谱</h2>
</div>
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row justify-between items-center space-y-8 md:space-y-0 md:space-x-4">
<!-- Upstream -->
<div class="text-center w-full md:w-1/3">
<div class="bg-blue-900/50 p-4 rounded-xl border border-blue-700">
<h4 class="text-xl font-bold text-blue-300">上游 · 养殖</h4>
<p class="text-gray-400 mt-1">提供鸭、鹅原毛</p>
<div class="mt-4 space-y-1">
<p class="font-semibold text-white">益客食品</p>
<p class="font-semibold text-white">立华股份</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="text-5xl text-blue-500 hidden md:block animate-pulse"></div>
<div class="text-5xl text-blue-500 md:hidden animate-pulse"></div>
<!-- Midstream -->
<div class="text-center w-full md:w-1/3">
<div class="bg-purple-900/50 p-4 rounded-xl border border-purple-700">
<h4 class="text-xl font-bold text-purple-300">中游 · 加工</h4>
<p class="text-gray-400 mt-1">原毛加工为标准化羽绒</p>
<div class="mt-4 space-y-1">
<p class="font-semibold text-white">古麒绒材 (业务最纯粹)</p>
<p class="font-semibold text-white">华英农业 (规模龙头)</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="text-5xl text-blue-500 hidden md:block animate-pulse"></div>
<div class="text-5xl text-blue-500 md:hidden animate-pulse"></div>
<!-- Downstream -->
<div class="text-center w-full md:w-1/3">
<div class="bg-teal-900/50 p-4 rounded-xl border border-teal-700">
<h4 class="text-xl font-bold text-teal-300">下游 · 品牌</h4>
<p class="text-gray-400 mt-1">制造终端产品</p>
<div class="mt-4 space-y-1">
<p class="font-semibold text-white">服装:波司登、森马服饰</p>
<p class="font-semibold text-white">家纺:富安娜、罗莱生活</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Data Deep Dive -->
<section class="mb-16">
<div class="section-header">
<h2 class="fui-title">市场数据 · 深度挖掘</h2>
</div>
<div class="join join-vertical w-full">
<div class="collapse collapse-arrow join-item glass-card rounded-2xl mb-2">
<input type="radio" name="data-accordion" checked="checked" />
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-cyan-300">新闻数据精粹</div>
<div class="collapse-content">
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 p-4 text-gray-300">
<li><strong>价格飙升:</strong> 90%白鸭绒价格从17万元/吨飙升至58万元/吨鹅绒达98万元/吨。23年1月至24年10月白鸭绒(90%)价格涨幅超53%。</li>
<li><strong>供需失衡:</strong> 上游养鸭量减少供给吃紧。下游寒潮来临羽绒服需求旺盛订单同比增长26%,高克重产品需求增加。</li>
<li><strong>行业问题:</strong> 央视曝光“以丝代绒”造假事件,引发行业信任危机。中羽协、中服协发布消费提示和自律倡议。</li>
<li><strong>企业动态:</strong> 古麒绒材、华英农业受益涨价,产能满负荷。波司登受原料涨价影响,但凭借定价能力有望转嫁成本。</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div class="collapse collapse-arrow join-item glass-card rounded-2xl mb-2">
<input type="radio" name="data-accordion" />
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-cyan-300">路演纪要核心</div>
<div class="collapse-content">
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 p-4 text-gray-300">
<li><strong>华英农业:</strong> 聚焦“熟食+羽绒”双主业羽绒业务市占率目标提升至15-20%。披露价格受供需及投机影响24年10月价格已回落10%原料自给率仅8-10%。</li>
<li><strong>富安娜:</strong> 提前低价囤积羽绒原料作为成本优势,但价格回落后面临库存减值风险,部分提货未执行。</li>
<li><strong>森马服饰:</strong> 举办羽绒大秀宣传远超国标的“高洁净1000+”羽绒标准,看好冷冬销售。</li>
<li><strong>波司登:</strong> 专注羽绒服赛道市占率超1/4。依赖产品创新对冲天气风险但面临原料鹅绒价格上涨压缩毛利率的压力。</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div class="collapse collapse-arrow join-item glass-card rounded-2xl">
<input type="radio" name="data-accordion" />
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-cyan-300">研报精华观点</div>
<div class="collapse-content">
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 p-4 text-gray-300">
<li><strong>产业链地位:</strong> 中国是全球最大鸭鹅养殖国和羽绒生产加工国,产业集群特征明显,环保趋严下行业集中度提升。</li>
<li><strong>下游市场潜力:</strong> 国内羽绒服普及率不足10%寝具普及率仅5%,远低于发达国家,增长潜力巨大。消费升级趋势明显,国货迎来崛起机会。</li>
<li><strong>技术与标准:</strong> 绒子含量、蓬松度是核心质量指标。龙头企业参与新国标制定拥有CNAS认可实验室。</li>
<li><strong>政策支持:</strong> 羽绒加工纳入《产业结构调整指导目录》鼓励类。万亿级冰雪经济将带动羽绒制品需求增长。</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Stock List -->
<section>
<div class="section-header">
<h2 class="fui-title">相关标的梳理</h2>
</div>
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-3xl p-4">
<table class="table table-zebra bg-transparent">
<thead class="text-base text-cyan-300">
<tr>
<th>股票名称</th>
<th>股票代码</th>
<th>核心逻辑</th>
<th>标签</th>
<th>深度分析</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<template x-for="stock in stocks" :key="stock.stock_code">
<tr class="hover:bg-blue-900/30">
<td class="font-bold text-white" x-text="stock.stock"></td>
<td>
<a x-show="stock.stock_code" :href="'https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=' + stock.stock_code" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-400" x-text="stock.stock_code"></a>
</td>
<td x-text="stock.reason"></td>
<td>
<span class="badge"
:class="{
'badge-primary': stock.other_tags === '相关业务',
'badge-secondary': stock.other_tags === '羽绒服'
}"
x-text="stock.other_tags"></span>
</td>
<td>
<button x-show="stock.analysis" class="btn btn-xs btn-outline btn-info" @click="openModal(stock)">查看异动</button>
</td>
</tr>
</template>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Modal for Detailed Analysis -->
<div class="modal" role="dialog" :class="{'modal-open': showModal}">
<div class="modal-box w-11/12 max-w-5xl glass-card">
<h3 class="font-bold text-2xl text-cyan-300" x-text="modalTitle"></h3>
<div class="py-4 overflow-y-auto max-h-[70vh] text-gray-300 leading-relaxed" x-html="modalContent"></div>
<div class="modal-action">
<button class="btn" @click="showModal = false">关闭</button>
</div>
</div>
<div class="modal-backdrop" @click="showModal = false"></div>
</div>
</div>
<script>
function pageData() {
return {
showModal: false,
modalTitle: '',
modalContent: '',
stocks: [],
riseAnalysis: [],
init() {
const stockData = {
"古麒绒材": { "stock_code": "001390", "reason": "羽绒业务营收占比99.27%羽绒类产品营收9.59亿元,主营聚焦于高规格羽绒产品的研产销。", "other_tags": "相关业务" },
"华英农业": { "stock_code": "002321", "reason": "羽绒业务营收占比67.22%羽绒营收31.8亿,被中国羽绒工业协会评为“中国羽绒行业出口十强企业”。", "other_tags": "相关业务" },
"益客食品": { "stock_code": "301116", "reason": "羽绒营收9.19亿元,羽绒版块产品为原料绒,除白鸭绒外,还包含毛梗、毛片等副产品。", "other_tags": "相关业务" },
"立华股份": { "stock_code": "300761", "reason": "鹅的羽毛是制作羽毛球和羽绒服装的优质材料公司养鹅业务涵盖育种、种鹅繁育、商品鹅养殖及销售。公司销售商品鹅209.63万只同比增长21.73%,目前的工作重点为继续扩大鹅的市场份额。", "other_tags": "相关业务" },
"煌上煌": { "stock_code": "002695", "reason": "持股51%子公司丰城煌鹏羽绒有限公司业务含有羽绒加工。", "other_tags": "相关业务" },
"全聚德": { "stock_code": null, "reason": "主营餐饮,三元金星生产鸭坯剩余的鸭毛量并没有达到生产羽绒服所需的用量,有专业的公司负责回收。", "other_tags": "相关业务" },
"欣贺股份": { "stock_code": "003016", "reason": "羽绒服相关业务", "other_tags": "羽绒服" },
"森马服饰": { "stock_code": "002563", "reason": "羽绒服相关业务", "other_tags": "羽绒服" },
"探路者": { "stock_code": "300005", "reason": "羽绒服相关业务", "other_tags": "羽绒服" },
"美邦服饰": { "stock_code": "002269", "reason": "羽绒服相关业务", "other_tags": "羽绒服" },
"海澜之家": { "stock_code": "600398", "reason": "羽绒服相关业务", "other_tags": "羽绒服" },
"三夫户外": { "stock_code": "002780", "reason": "羽绒服相关业务", "other_tags": "羽绒服" },
"嘉曼服饰": { "stock_code": "301276", "reason": "羽绒服相关业务", "other_tags": "羽绒服" },
};
this.riseAnalysis = [
{ "stock": "戎美股份", "stock_code": "301088", "reason": "戎美股份当日的大幅上涨,**并非由公司自身发布实质性利好公告驱动,而是一次典型的“板块轮动+事件催化+游资博弈”下的短线投机性行情**。核心驱动力在于服装家纺板块的整体强势,叠加寒潮天气带来的行业利好预期..."},
{ "stock": "天纺标", "stock_code": "920753", "reason": "天纺标的上涨,**最可能的原因并非源于公司自身的基本面突变,而是由同一时期纺织服装板块(特别是羽绒服赛道)的强烈利好情绪引发的“舆情溢出效应”和“题材跟涨行为”。**..."},
{ "stock": "太平鸟", "stock_code": "603877", "reason": "减持预期一次性清零叠加宁波国资股权入场,外资席位连续两日加仓,短线供给-需求曲线突变,触发无量涨停。驱动概念:宁波国资+减持清零+服装消费..."},
{ "stock": "九牧王", "stock_code": "601566", "reason": "11-12 盘后官宣“2025-2028 年中国奥委会官方赞助商+礼服独家供应商”带来一次性品牌溢价与订单增量,事件驱动型价值重估触发 11-13 涨停..."},
];
let combinedStocks = [];
for (const name in stockData) {
const analysisData = this.riseAnalysis.find(s => s.stock === name);
combinedStocks.push({
stock: name,
...stockData[name],
analysis: analysisData ? analysisData.reason.replace(/\n/g, '<br/>') : null
});
}
this.stocks = combinedStocks;
},
openModal(stock) {
this.modalTitle = `${stock.stock} (${stock.stock_code}) - 股价异动深度分析`;
this.modalContent = stock.analysis;
this.showModal = true;
},
initChart() {
var myChart = echarts.init(document.getElementById('priceChart'));
var option = {
title: {
text: '90%白鸭绒价格走势模拟 (元/吨)',
left: 'center',
textStyle: { color: '#e0e0e0' }
},
tooltip: {
trigger: 'axis',
backgroundColor: 'rgba(18, 24, 45, 0.8)',
borderColor: '#3b82f6',
textStyle: { color: '#e0e0e0' },
formatter: '时间: {b}<br/>价格: {c}元/吨'
},
grid: {
left: '3%', right: '4%', bottom: '3%', containLabel: true
},
xAxis: {
type: 'category',
boundaryGap: false,
data: ['23年1月', '23年4月', '23年7月', '23年10月', '24年1月', '24年4月', '24年7月', '24年10月', '24年11月', '25年1月'],
axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: 'rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.3)' } }
},
yAxis: {
type: 'value',
axisLabel: { formatter: '{value}' },
splitLine: { lineStyle: { type: 'dashed', color: 'rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1)' } },
axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: 'rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.3)' } }
},
series: [{
name: '价格',
type: 'line',
smooth: true,
symbol: 'none',
data: [350000, 380000, 410000, 450000, 480000, 500000, 520000, 580000, 570000, 550000],
itemStyle: { color: '#3b82f6' },
lineStyle: { width: 3, shadowColor: 'rgba(59, 130, 246, 0.5)', shadowBlur: 10 },
areaStyle: {
color: new echarts.graphic.LinearGradient(0, 0, 0, 1, [{
offset: 0,
color: 'rgba(59, 130, 246, 0.5)'
}, {
offset: 1,
color: 'rgba(59, 130, 246, 0)'
}])
}
}]
};
myChart.setOption(option);
window.addEventListener('resize', function() {
myChart.resize();
});
}
};
}
</script>
</body>
</html>