470 lines
35 KiB
HTML
470 lines
35 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
|
||
<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
|
||
|
||
<head>
|
||
<meta charset="UTF-8">
|
||
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
|
||
<title>深度研报：钴金属概念</title>
|
||
<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.10.1/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
|
||
<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
|
||
<script defer src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
|
||
<style>
|
||
@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Noto+Sans+SC:wght@300;400;500;700&display=swap');
|
||
|
||
body {
|
||
font-family: 'Noto Sans SC', sans-serif;
|
||
background-color: #0c0a09;
|
||
background-image:
|
||
radial-gradient(ellipse 200% 80% at 20% -20%, rgba(5, 150, 105, 0.2), transparent),
|
||
radial-gradient(ellipse 200% 80% at 80% 120%, rgba(124, 58, 237, 0.2), transparent);
|
||
background-repeat: no-repeat;
|
||
background-attachment: fixed;
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
.glass-card {
|
||
background: rgba(17, 24, 39, 0.3);
|
||
backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
|
||
-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
|
||
border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
|
||
transition: all 0.3s ease;
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
.glass-card:hover {
|
||
background: rgba(17, 24, 39, 0.5);
|
||
box-shadow: 0 0 25px rgba(167, 139, 250, 0.2);
|
||
border-color: rgba(167, 139, 250, 0.3);
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
.bento-grid {
|
||
display: grid;
|
||
gap: 1rem;
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
.bento-grid-item {
|
||
grid-column: span 12;
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
@media (min-width: 768px) {
|
||
.bento-grid-item-2 { grid-column: span 6; }
|
||
.bento-grid-item-3 { grid-column: span 4; }
|
||
.bento-grid-item-4 { grid-column: span 8; }
|
||
.bento-grid-item-5 { grid-column: span 7; }
|
||
.bento-grid-item-7 { grid-column: span 5; }
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
.timeline-fui::before {
|
||
content: '';
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
left: 0.75rem;
|
||
top: 1rem;
|
||
bottom: 1rem;
|
||
width: 2px;
|
||
background-color: rgba(167, 139, 250, 0.2);
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
.timeline-marker {
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
left: 0.75rem;
|
||
transform: translateX(-50%);
|
||
width: 1rem;
|
||
height: 1rem;
|
||
border-radius: 9999px;
|
||
border: 2px solid rgba(167, 139, 250, 0.5);
|
||
background-color: #111827;
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
.timeline-marker-glow {
|
||
box-shadow: 0 0 10px rgba(167, 139, 250, 0.5);
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
</style>
|
||
</head>
|
||
|
||
<body class="text-gray-300">
|
||
|
||
<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8 space-y-12">
|
||
|
||
<!-- Header -->
|
||
<header class="text-center p-8 glass-card rounded-3xl">
|
||
<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold text-transparent bg-clip-text bg-gradient-to-r from-violet-400 to-emerald-400 mb-4">
|
||
钴金属 (Cobalt) 概念深度研报
|
||
</h1>
|
||
<p class="text-lg text-gray-400">一场由供给侧地缘政治驱动的基本面超级周期</p>
|
||
<div class="mt-4 text-xs text-gray-500">
|
||
<p>由 北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现</p>
|
||
<p>本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</header>
|
||
|
||
<main class="space-y-12">
|
||
<!-- Insight Core Section -->
|
||
<section id="insight">
|
||
<div class="p-6 md:p-8 glass-card rounded-3xl space-y-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-center text-violet-300">核心洞察：从供需失衡到定价权易主</h2>
|
||
<p class="text-center max-w-4xl mx-auto text-gray-400">
|
||
“钴金属”概念正经历一场由全球最大供应国刚果（金）通过“出口禁令+配额制”组合拳，强行扭转全球供需平衡的结构性牛市。市场已从情绪炒作阶段，进入由真实供需缺口支撑的主升浪行情，其核心逻辑是商品定价权的强制转移。
|
||
</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Event Timeline -->
|
||
<section id="timeline">
|
||
<div class="p-6 md:p-8 glass-card rounded-3xl">
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-emerald-300 flex items-center gap-3">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M12 8v4l3 3m6-3a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z" /></svg>
|
||
关键事件时间轴 (2024-2025)
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<div class="relative pl-8">
|
||
<div class="timeline-fui"></div>
|
||
<div class="space-y-8">
|
||
<div class="relative">
|
||
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
|
||
<p class="font-semibold text-gray-400">2024年末：背景</p>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">市场供给过剩，需求平淡，钴价低迷，全球过剩约1万吨。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="relative">
|
||
<div class="timeline-marker timeline-marker-glow"></div>
|
||
<p class="font-bold text-emerald-400">2025.02.24：催化剂引爆</p>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">刚果（金）宣布暂停钴产品出口4个月，钴价从约15万元/吨低点暴力拉升。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="relative">
|
||
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
|
||
<p class="font-semibold text-gray-400">2025.05-06：基本面验证</p>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">中国钴中间品进口量环比骤降61.8%，市场逻辑从“情绪驱动”转向“基本面驱动”。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="relative">
|
||
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
|
||
<p class="font-semibold text-gray-400">2025.06.21：供给收缩强化</p>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">刚果（金）宣布出口禁令延长3个月，市场原料短缺预期加剧。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="relative">
|
||
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
|
||
<p class="font-semibold text-gray-400">2025.08.19：需求端催化</p>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">美国国防部宣布未来5年收储7500吨钴金属，强化钴的战略价值。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="relative">
|
||
<div class="timeline-marker timeline-marker-glow"></div>
|
||
<p class="font-bold text-emerald-400">2025.09-10：政策定调</p>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">刚果（金）公布出口配额制细节，26-27年每年最多出口9.66万吨，长期供给收缩格局确立。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="relative">
|
||
<div class="timeline-marker"></div>
|
||
<p class="font-semibold text-gray-400">2025.11：短缺现实</p>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">国内钴原料库存告急（不足3周），冶炼厂产量锐减，产业链进入加速去库阶段。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Bento Grid for Core Logic & Analysis -->
|
||
<section id="core-analysis" class="bento-grid">
|
||
<div class="p-6 md:p-8 glass-card rounded-3xl bento-grid-item bento-grid-item-4">
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-violet-300">市场核心逻辑与预期差</h3>
|
||
<div class="space-y-4">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-emerald-400">核心驱动力：商品定价权的强制转移</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">刚果(金) (全球供应占比 >75%) 效仿稀土模式，通过行政手段从产业链中夺取商品定价权，导致全球供给断崖式下滑，彻底改变行业基本面。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-emerald-400">市场情绪：从分歧到高度乐观共识</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">市场情绪从年初的谨慎，经历2-3月的情绪博弈，到6月后因数据验证而转为极度乐观。当前市场热度极高，普遍预期钴价进入长牛趋势。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-amber-400">预期差 1: 库存的真实压力</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">市场高估短期原料短缺的逼空效应，而可能低估高企的社会显性库存（约3万吨）对价格天花板的压制作用。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-amber-400">预期差 2: 需求端的脆弱性</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">市场可能低估钴价过快上涨对需求的潜在反噬效应，尤其是在新能源汽车领域，高成本或将加速磷酸铁锂对三元的替代。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="p-6 md:p-8 glass-card rounded-3xl bento-grid-item bento-grid-item-5">
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-violet-300">钴价走势及下游应用</h3>
|
||
<div id="priceChart" class="w-full h-48 md:h-64"></div>
|
||
<div id="demandChart" class="w-full h-48 md:h-64"></div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="p-6 md:p-8 glass-card rounded-3xl bento-grid-item bento-grid-item-7">
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-emerald-300">近期催化剂 (未来3-6个月)</h3>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-400">
|
||
<li><span class="font-semibold text-gray-300">配额制执行情况：</span>首批配额下的实际出口量及速度是验证供给收缩的关键。</li>
|
||
<li><span class="font-semibold text-gray-300">产业链库存消耗：</span>冶炼厂开工率和社会库存变化将验证“有效枯竭”是否到来。</li>
|
||
<li><span class="font-semibold text-gray-300">美国战略收储：</span>国防部收储计划的首次采购将提振市场情绪与实际需求。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="p-6 md:p-8 glass-card rounded-3xl bento-grid-item bento-grid-item-5">
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-emerald-300">长期发展路径</h3>
|
||
<ol class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-400">
|
||
<li><span class="font-semibold text-gray-300">价格中枢重塑 (1-2年):</span> 钴价中枢将大幅上移至30万元/吨以上。</li>
|
||
<li><span class="font-semibold text-gray-300">供给格局多元化 (2-3年):</span> 高价将刺激印尼等非刚果(金)地区资源开发。</li>
|
||
<li><span class="font-semibold text-gray-300">技术路线再博弈 (3-5年):</span> 高钴价倒逼下游加速研发低钴/无钴电池技术。</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Key Players -->
|
||
<section id="key-players">
|
||
<div class="p-6 md:p-8 glass-card rounded-3xl">
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-center text-violet-300">产业链核心公司深度剖析</h3>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-4 gap-6">
|
||
<div class="p-4 border border-gray-700 rounded-2xl space-y-2 hover:bg-gray-800/50 transition-colors">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-emerald-400">洛阳钼业</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400"><span class="font-semibold">定位:</span> 资源巨头，长线价值</p>
|
||
<p class="text-xs text-gray-500">刚果(金)最大生产商，短期受禁令影响，但长期最有可能获得最大出口配额，赌资源价值长期重估。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="p-4 border border-gray-700 rounded-2xl space-y-2 hover:bg-gray-800/50 transition-colors">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-emerald-400">华友钴业</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400"><span class="font-semibold">定位:</span> 一体化龙头，最具韧性</p>
|
||
<p class="text-xs text-gray-500">“刚果(金)+印尼”双资源布局，印尼副产钴不受禁令影响，风险与收益平衡最佳，确定性最高。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="p-4 border border-gray-700 rounded-2xl space-y-2 hover:bg-gray-800/50 transition-colors">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-emerald-400">腾远钴业 & 寒锐钴业</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400"><span class="font-semibold">定位:</span> 纯粹弹性标的，高风险高收益</p>
|
||
<p class="text-xs text-gray-500">业务高度集中于钴，核心逻辑是库存价值重估和高价下的盈利弹性。股价弹性最大，风险也最高。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="p-4 border border-gray-700 rounded-2xl space-y-2 hover:bg-gray-800/50 transition-colors">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-emerald-400">格林美</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400"><span class="font-semibold">定位:</span> 回收循环，差异化逻辑</p>
|
||
<p class="text-xs text-gray-500">高钴价提升回收料经济性，增加原料来源。是对冲资源国政策风险的差异化投资方向。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Risks -->
|
||
<section id="risks">
|
||
<div class="p-6 md:p-8 glass-card rounded-3xl">
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-amber-300">潜在风险与挑战</h3>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
|
||
<div class="space-y-4">
|
||
<div class="flex items-start gap-3">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 text-amber-400 mt-1 flex-shrink-0" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M12 9v2m0 4h.01m-6.938 4h13.856c1.54 0 2.502-1.667 1.732-3L13.732 4c-.77-1.333-2.694-1.333-3.464 0L3.34 16c-.77 1.333.192 3 1.732 3z" /></svg>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold">政策风险 (最核心)</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">刚果(金)政府政策的突然转向、配额超预期发放或执行不力是颠覆当前逻辑的最大风险。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="flex items-start gap-3">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 text-amber-400 mt-1 flex-shrink-0" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M12 9v2m0 4h.01m-6.938 4h13.856c1.54 0 2.502-1.667 1.732-3L13.732 4c-.77-1.333-2.694-1.333-3.464 0L3.34 16c-.77 1.333.192 3 1.732 3z" /></svg>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold">需求反噬风险</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">钴价过高可能导致占需求43%的电动车领域加速向磷酸铁锂等无钴技术路线转移。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="space-y-4">
|
||
<div class="flex items-start gap-3">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 text-amber-400 mt-1 flex-shrink-0" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M12 9v2m0 4h.01m-6.938 4h13.856c1.54 0 2.502-1.667 1.732-3L13.732 4c-.77-1.333-2.694-1.333-3.464 0L3.34 16c-.77 1.333.192 3 1.732 3z" /></svg>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold">技术路线风险</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">长期来看，固态电池等下一代技术旨在降低甚至消除对钴的依赖，构成对钴长期需求的潜在威胁。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="flex items-start gap-3">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 text-amber-400 mt-1 flex-shrink-0" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M12 9v2m0 4h.01m-6.938 4h13.856c1.54 0 2.502-1.667 1.732-3L13.732 4c-.77-1.333-2.694-1.333-3.464 0L3.34 16c-.77 1.333.192 3 1.732 3z" /></svg>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold">库存数据矛盾</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">高企的社会电解钴库存与枯竭的冶炼厂原料库存存在矛盾，可能导致原料价格暴涨而金属现货涨幅受限。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Supporting Data Accordions -->
|
||
<section id="supporting-data" x-data="{ active: '' }">
|
||
<div class="space-y-4">
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||
<div class="p-4 cursor-pointer flex justify-between items-center" @click="active = active === 'news' ? '' : 'news'">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-emerald-300">新闻数据摘要</h3>
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6 transition-transform" :class="{'rotate-180': active === 'news'}" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M19 9l-7 7-7-7" /></svg>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div x-show="active === 'news'" x-collapse class="p-4 pt-0 text-sm text-gray-400">
|
||
<ul class="list-disc space-y-2 pl-5">
|
||
<li><strong>核心观点：</strong> 供给端因刚果金（DRC）出口管制急剧收缩，需求端（军工、航空、电子）旺盛，导致钴原料极度紧缺，预计推动钴价大幅上涨至35-40万元/吨。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>供给端核心（DRC政策）：</strong> 25年2-9月禁止出口，后转为配额制。配额制减量幅度超预期（-56%），本质是商品定价权的易主。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>原料与库存：</strong> 粗钴供需极度紧张，国内冶炼厂库存不足3周。6-7月进口量环比大幅下降超60%和27%。国内产量（钴盐、电钴）7月、10月同比大幅下滑。社会库存高企是价格上行压制因素。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>需求端核心（海外&美国）：</strong> 海外军工、航空航天需求旺盛。8月19日美国国防部宣布战略收储7500吨，强化钴战略地位。国内消费电子需求超预期复苏。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>价格预测：</strong> 市场普遍看好主升浪，目标价40万元/吨。粗钴折扣系数从年初50%提升至75%以上，显示原料极度紧张。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>投资建议：</strong> 强烈看好钴板块，首选洛阳钼业、华友钴业，关注腾远钴业、寒锐钴业。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||
<div class="p-4 cursor-pointer flex justify-between items-center" @click="active = active === 'roadshow' ? '' : 'roadshow'">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-emerald-300">路演纪要精选</h3>
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6 transition-transform" :class="{'rotate-180': active === 'roadshow'}" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M19 9l-7 7-7-7" /></svg>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div x-show="active === 'roadshow'" x-collapse class="p-4 pt-0 text-sm text-gray-400">
|
||
<ul class="list-disc space-y-2 pl-5">
|
||
<li><strong>刚果金政策影响：</strong> 禁令（先四后三共7个月）实质性阻断全球80%+原料供应，预计造成超7万吨供应缺口，足以抹平2024-2025年过剩量。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>库存状况：</strong> 全球累计过剩库存约8万吨（中国5万吨+刚果金3万吨），预计2025年10月底接近“有效枯竭”。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>价格展望：</strong> 禁令已推动钴价从15万/吨上涨，短期看至25-30万/吨，长期价格中枢有望稳定在20-25万/吨以上。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>企业受益分析：</strong>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc space-y-1 pl-5">
|
||
<li><strong>华友钴业：</strong> 印尼镍钴项目（年产钴超2万吨）不受影响，钴价上涨直接增厚利润，对冲镍业务成本。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>洛阳钼业：</strong> 短期销售受限，但长期凭借规模优势有望获得优先配额。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>腾远/寒锐：</strong> 纯钴业务，库存重估将直接增厚利润，价格弹性最大。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li><strong>替代供应与风险：</strong> 印尼MHP伴生钴月增量仅500吨，无法弥补缺口。风险在于高钴价可能加速磷酸铁锂对三元的替代。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||
<div class="p-4 cursor-pointer flex justify-between items-center" @click="active = active === 'report' ? '' : 'report'">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold text-emerald-300">研报观点汇总</h3>
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6 transition-transform" :class="{'rotate-180': active === 'report'}" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M19 9l-7 7-7-7" /></svg>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div x-show="active === 'report'" x-collapse class="p-4 pt-0 text-sm text-gray-400">
|
||
<ul class="list-disc space-y-2 pl-5">
|
||
<li><strong>供给端分析：</strong> 全球钴供应75%来自刚果（金）。2025年2月起实施的出口禁令（后延长）是推动钴价上涨的核心因素。9月公布的配额制（26-27年每年最多9.66万吨）进一步确认了长期供给收缩。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>需求端分析：</strong> 下游三元正极材料和钴酸锂（消费电子）需求在2024-25年迎来恢复性增长。三元动力电池占比企稳，未来有望在机器人、eVTOL等领域扩容。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>价格走势：</strong> 2025年2月禁令后，电解钴及钴盐价格强势上涨，产业链捂盘惜售情绪浓厚。预计下游旺季来临，价格有望上涨至35万元/吨，进入长牛趋势。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>腾远钴业深度分析：</strong>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc space-y-1 pl-5">
|
||
<li><strong>产能扩张：</strong> 国内钴产品总产能规划至4.6万吨，较当前增长74%。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>原料储备：</strong> 2025Q3末存货达34亿元，储备充足，能在钴价上行中获得较好盈利。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>盈利弹性：</strong> 历史上钴价上涨通道中毛利率弹性巨大（2021年达43%），2025-27年盈利能力有望显著提升。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li><strong>风险提示：</strong> 核心风险为刚果（金）政策变动、下游需求不及预期、铜钴价格大幅波动。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock Table -->
|
||
<section id="stocks">
|
||
<div class="p-6 md:p-8 glass-card rounded-3xl">
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-center text-violet-300">相关上市公司梳理</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra-zebra w-full">
|
||
<thead class="text-base text-emerald-300">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑/原因</th>
|
||
<th>标签</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody class="text-sm">
|
||
<tr><td>洛阳钼业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603993" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">603993</a></td><td>2025年产量指引10-12万吨；刚果(金)TFM、KFM两大世界级铜钴矿核心权益方</td><td class="text-violet-400">钴矿</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>华友钴业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603799" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">603799</a></td><td>网传4.68万金属吨/年；拥有刚果(金)PE527铜钴矿，并在印尼布局镍钴湿法项目</td><td class="text-violet-400">钴矿</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>腾远钴业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301219" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">301219</a></td><td>2.65万金属吨/年；在刚果(金)拥有矿权，产业链纯粹，业绩弹性大</td><td class="text-violet-400">钴矿</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>寒锐钴业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300618" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">300618</a></td><td>1.6万金属吨/年；深耕刚果(金)铜钴伴生矿开采与冶炼</td><td class="text-violet-400">钴矿</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>ST盛屯</td><td>N/A</td><td>1.4万金属吨/年；拥有刚果(金)卡隆威铜钴矿山</td><td class="text-violet-400">钴矿</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>国城矿业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000688" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">000688</a></td><td>下属矿山保有钴金属资源储量1.76万吨</td><td class="text-violet-400">钴矿</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>中国中铁</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601390" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">601390</a></td><td>在刚果（金）拥有SICOMINES、绿纱、MKM等多个大型铜钴矿项目</td><td class="text-violet-400">钴矿</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>ST合纵</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300477" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">300477</a></td><td>参股公司在赞比亚拥有钴金属量12.01万吨的矿产资源</td><td class="text-violet-400">钴矿</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>厦门钨业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600549" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">600549</a></td><td>腾远钴业第三大股东，持股9.05%</td><td class="text-emerald-400">参股</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>赣锋锂业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002460" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">002460</a></td><td>腾远钴业第四大股东，持股6.09%</td><td class="text-emerald-400">参股</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>格林美</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002340" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">002340</a></td><td>世界最大钴镍钨资源循环利用基地，世界最大超细钴粉制造基地</td><td class="text-amber-400">回收</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>华新环保</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301265" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">301265</a></td><td>拥有从含钴冶炼废渣中提取钴的项目技术</td><td class="text-amber-400">回收</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>中国瑞林</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603257" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">603257</a></td><td>核心铜钴提取技术应用于刚果（金）RTR铜钴矿项目，实现年产2.1万吨钴</td><td class="text-cyan-400">技术工程</td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<footer class="text-center text-xs text-gray-600 py-8">
|
||
<p>北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研”</p>
|
||
<p>免责声明：本报告由人工智能基于公开信息自动生成，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。</p>
|
||
</footer>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function () {
|
||
// ECharts for Price Trend
|
||
var priceChartDom = document.getElementById('priceChart');
|
||
var priceChart = echarts.init(priceChartDom);
|
||
var priceOption = {
|
||
title: { text: '电解钴价格走势 (万元/吨)', textStyle: { color: '#a78bfa', fontSize: 14 } },
|
||
tooltip: { trigger: 'axis', backgroundColor: 'rgba(17, 24, 39, 0.8)', borderColor: '#a78bfa', textStyle: { color: '#d1d5db' } },
|
||
grid: { left: '3%', right: '4%', bottom: '3%', containLabel: true },
|
||
xAxis: {
|
||
type: 'category',
|
||
boundaryGap: false,
|
||
data: ['24年Q4', '25.02', '25.03', '25.05', '25.09', '预期'],
|
||
axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#4b5563' } }
|
||
},
|
||
yAxis: {
|
||
type: 'value',
|
||
min: 10,
|
||
axisLabel: { formatter: '{value}' },
|
||
splitLine: { lineStyle: { color: 'rgba(75, 85, 99, 0.2)' } }
|
||
},
|
||
series: [{
|
||
name: '价格',
|
||
type: 'line',
|
||
smooth: true,
|
||
data: [15, 16.25, 21.8, 24, 26.8, 35],
|
||
itemStyle: { color: '#6ee7b7' },
|
||
lineStyle: {
|
||
width: 3,
|
||
shadowColor: 'rgba(110, 231, 183, 0.5)',
|
||
shadowBlur: 10
|
||
},
|
||
areaStyle: {
|
||
color: new echarts.graphic.LinearGradient(0, 0, 0, 1, [{
|
||
offset: 0,
|
||
color: 'rgba(110, 231, 183, 0.3)'
|
||
}, {
|
||
offset: 1,
|
||
color: 'rgba(110, 231, 183, 0)'
|
||
}])
|
||
}
|
||
}]
|
||
};
|
||
priceChart.setOption(priceOption);
|
||
|
||
// ECharts for Demand Distribution
|
||
var demandChartDom = document.getElementById('demandChart');
|
||
var demandChart = echarts.init(demandChartDom);
|
||
var demandOption = {
|
||
title: { text: '钴下游需求结构 (2024年)', textStyle: { color: '#a78bfa', fontSize: 14 } },
|
||
tooltip: { trigger: 'item', backgroundColor: 'rgba(17, 24, 39, 0.8)', borderColor: '#a78bfa', textStyle: { color: '#d1d5db' } },
|
||
legend: { show: false },
|
||
series: [{
|
||
name: '需求占比',
|
||
type: 'pie',
|
||
radius: ['40%', '70%'],
|
||
avoidLabelOverlap: false,
|
||
itemStyle: {
|
||
borderRadius: 10,
|
||
borderColor: '#111827',
|
||
borderWidth: 2
|
||
},
|
||
label: { show: true, formatter: '{b}\n{d}%', color: '#d1d5db' },
|
||
emphasis: { label: { show: true, fontSize: 16, fontWeight: 'bold' } },
|
||
labelLine: { show: true },
|
||
data: [
|
||
{ value: 43, name: '电动车' },
|
||
{ value: 30, name: '消费电子' },
|
||
{ value: 12, name: '高温合金' },
|
||
{ value: 15, name: '其他' }
|
||
],
|
||
color: ['#818cf8', '#6ee7b7', '#f472b6', '#60a5fa']
|
||
}]
|
||
};
|
||
demandChart.setOption(demandOption);
|
||
|
||
window.addEventListener('resize', function() {
|
||
priceChart.resize();
|
||
demandChart.resize();
|
||
});
|
||
});
|
||
</script>
|
||
|
||
</body>
|
||
|
||
</html> |