506 lines
31 KiB
HTML
506 lines
31 KiB
HTML
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<title>高通概念 - 深度行业研究报告</title>
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<div class="main-container container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center p-8 mb-8 glass-card">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold tracking-tighter mb-4 section-title">高通概念</h1>
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<p class="text-xl md:text-2xl text-slate-300 mb-6">深度行业研究报告</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-slate-500 max-w-4xl mx-auto">
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高通概念正处在由“端侧AI”技术革命驱动的战略转型与价值重估的关键阶段。其核心驱动力源于从手机到PC、汽车、物联网的全场景AI算力需求爆发，高通凭借其自研Oryon CPU和领先的NPU技术，正试图构建一个可与苹果和Wintel相抗衡的全新ARM计算生态。
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</p>
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<div class="divider divider-primary mt-6 opacity-30"></div>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-600 mt-4">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现，本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。</p>
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</header>
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<!-- Main Content -->
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<main class="space-y-12">
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<!-- Core Narrative & Timeline -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-6 section-title">概念核心叙事</h2>
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<p class="text-slate-400 mb-8">高通概念的核心叙事是其从一家移动通信巨头向“AI连接计算公司”的战略转型。这一转型由一系列关键事件、技术发布和法律纠纷所驱动，构成了该概念的宏观背景与催化剂。</p>
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<div id="timeline-chart" class="w-full h-96"></div>
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</section>
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<!-- In-Depth Insight Bento Grid -->
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<section>
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-8 text-center section-title">深度洞察</h2>
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<div class="bento-item bento-span-2 glass-card p-6">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl mb-4 text-indigo-300">核心逻辑与市场认知</h3>
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<p class="font-semibold text-slate-300">核心驱动力：AI应用从云端向边缘设备迁移的技术范式转变。</p>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 mt-2 text-slate-400 text-sm">
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<li><span class="font-semibold text-sky-400">技术逻辑:</span> 高效费比的异构计算平台（CPU+GPU+NPU），尤其是自研Oryon CPU和Hexagon NPU，在端侧AI推理场景具备天然优势。</li>
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<li><span class="font-semibold text-sky-400">商业逻辑:</span> AI功能催生新一轮换机潮，带来ASP（平均售价）提升，并为高通切入PC市场提供历史性机遇。</li>
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<li><span class="font-semibold text-sky-400">生态构建:</span> 通过AI Hub软件栈，试图锁定开发者，打通全平台设备，构建护城河。</li>
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</ul>
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<div class="divider my-4 opacity-20"></div>
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<p class="font-semibold text-slate-300">市场情绪：乐观与疑虑并存。</p>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 mt-2 text-slate-400 text-sm">
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<li><span class="font-semibold text-green-400">乐观:</span> 对端侧AI巨大前景的共识，认可其转型故事。</li>
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<li><span class="font-semibold text-amber-400">谨慎:</span> 担忧法律监管风险、激烈的市场竞争以及苹果自研基带等传统业务风险。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="bento-item bento-span-1 glass-card p-6">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl mb-4 text-indigo-300">关键催化剂与未来路径</h3>
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<p class="font-semibold text-slate-300">近期催化剂 (3-6个月):</p>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 mt-2 text-slate-400 text-sm">
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<li>AI PC大规模上市后的销售数据。</li>
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<li>骁龙峰会发布新一代旗舰平台。</li>
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<li>NPU+3D DRAM项目进展。</li>
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<li>与大型云服务商的合作官宣。</li>
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</ul>
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<div class="divider my-4 opacity-20"></div>
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<p class="font-semibold text-slate-300">长期发展路径:</p>
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<ol class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-2 mt-2 text-slate-400 text-sm">
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<li><b>2024-2026:</b> 生态构建与市场渗透期。</li>
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<li><b>2026-2029:</b> 多元化增长兑现期。</li>
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<li><b>2030+:</b> 平台领导者确立期。</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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<div class="bento-item bento-span-1 glass-card p-6">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl mb-4 text-indigo-300">潜在风险与挑战</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-3 text-slate-400 text-sm">
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<li><strong class="text-red-400">技术风险:</strong> 自研CPU迭代能否持续保持竞争力；竞争对手在NPU能效比上实现突破。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-red-400">商业化风险:</strong> AI PC生态成熟度及用户接受度；进入数据中心市场的巨大壁垒。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-red-400">政策与竞争风险:</strong> 全球反垄断与地缘政治风险；苹果自研基带导致收入损失；PC市场份额目标与分析师预测存在巨大预期差。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="bento-item bento-span-2 glass-card p-6">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl mb-4 text-indigo-300">预期差分析</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 mt-2 text-slate-400 text-sm">
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<li><strong class="text-purple-400">AI PC渗透速度:</strong> 公司“Top 2”的雄心与市场5-8%市占率的保守预测形成鲜明对比。真正的预期差在于高通能否凭借能效优势和微软支持，实现远超悲观预期的渗透率。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-purple-400">非手机业务价值:</strong> 市场可能仍将高通视为手机芯片公司，而忽略了汽车(增速61%)和IoT(增速36%)等高增长业务的巨大价值。2029年非手机业务营收220亿美元的目标显示增长动力已发生结构性变化。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-purple-400">商业模式转变:</strong> 从“卖芯片”到“卖平台”的转变被市场低估。提供SDK、AI Hub等平台赋能策略，是一种更高粘性、更具生态价值的商业模式。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="bento-item bento-span-3 glass-card p-6">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-xl mb-4 text-indigo-300">产业链与核心公司深度剖析</h3>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-cyan-300 mb-2">上游：IP、制造与核心零部件</h4>
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<ul class="text-xs text-slate-400 space-y-1">
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<li><strong>IP授权:</strong> Arm</li>
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<li><strong>芯片制造:</strong> 台积电 (TSMC)</li>
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<li><strong>封测:</strong> 长电科技</li>
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<li><strong>电感:</strong> 麦捷科技, 顺络电子</li>
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<li><strong>存储:</strong> 佰维存储, 东芯股份</li>
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<li><strong>其他:</strong> 惠伦晶体(晶振), 易天股份(设备)</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-lime-300 mb-2">中游：高通平台与生态</h4>
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<ul class="text-xs text-slate-400 space-y-1">
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<li><strong>高通:</strong> 芯片设计与平台解决方案</li>
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<li><strong>软件/解决方案:</strong> 中科创达 (操作系统/智驾), 东软集团 (智能座舱), 虹软科技 (视觉算法)</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-amber-300 mb-2">下游：终端应用与分销</h4>
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<ul class="text-xs text-slate-400 space-y-1">
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<li><strong>手机/PC:</strong> 三星, 小米, OPPO, vivo, 戴尔, 惠普</li>
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<li><strong>汽车:</strong> 宝马, 博世</li>
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<li><strong>物联网模块:</strong> 移远通信, 广和通, 美格智能</li>
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<li><strong>分销代理:</strong> 中电港, 润欣科技</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="divider my-4 opacity-20"></div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-slate-300 mb-2">最具投资价值细分环节：</h4>
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<ol class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-1 mt-2 text-slate-400 text-sm">
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<li><span class="font-bold">汽车电子生态:</span> 当前确定性最高的增长方向，相关软件和解决方案合作伙伴（如中科创达）将深度受益。</li>
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<li><span class="font-bold">AI PC核心元器件:</span> 深度绑定高通平台、通过“金牌认证”的供应商（如麦捷科技、顺络电子）将迎来量价齐升。</li>
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<li><span class="font-bold">物联网模组:</span> 随着5G Advanced和AIoT普及，模组厂商（如移远通信）将受益于连接设备数量的指数级增长。</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Market Dynamics & Data Support -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8" x-data="{ tab: 'news' }">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-6 section-title">市场动态与数据支撑</h2>
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<div role="tablist" class="tabs tabs-bordered tabs-lg mb-6">
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<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'news' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'news'">新闻动态</a>
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<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'roadshows' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'roadshows'">路演纪要</a>
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<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'reports' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'reports'">研报观点</a>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'news'" class="space-y-4">
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-slate-800/50">
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<input type="radio" name="news-accordion" checked="checked" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-indigo-300">法律与监管动态</div>
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<div class="collapse-content text-slate-400 text-sm space-y-2">
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<p><strong>与Arm的法律纠纷 (2024.10 - 2024.12):</strong> Arm起诉高通并威胁取消其架构许可，引发市场剧烈震动。最终，美国陪审团在关键问题上裁定支持高通，扫清了高通自研Oryon CPU发展的最大外部障碍。</p>
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<p><strong>反垄断调查 (2025.10):</strong> 因收购Autotalks公司未依法申报，高通在中国面临市场监管总局的立案调查，凸显其在全球市场面临的持续性监管风险。</p>
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||
</div>
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||
</div>
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-slate-800/50">
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<input type="radio" name="news-accordion" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-indigo-300">产品与技术发布</div>
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<div class="collapse-content text-slate-400 text-sm space-y-2">
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<p><strong>骁龙8至尊版 (2024.10):</strong> 首次采用自研Oryon CPU，标志着端侧AI算力的重大突破，开启AI手机时代。</p>
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<p><strong>人工智能芯片 (2025.10):</strong> 正式进军数据中心市场，与英伟达展开正面竞争，业务版图从“端”向“云”延伸。</p>
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<p><strong>X85 5G调制解调器 (2025.03):</strong> 第八代5G解决方案，具备5G Advanced特性，巩固其在连接领域的领先优势。</p>
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||
</div>
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||
</div>
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-slate-800/50">
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<input type="radio" name="news-accordion" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-indigo-300">技术研发与合作</div>
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<div class="collapse-content text-slate-400 text-sm space-y-2">
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<p><strong>NPU+3D DRAM合作 (2025.05):</strong> 披露先进封装合作项目，旨在通过存算一体技术将端侧AI内存带宽提升超过三倍，解决AI算力瓶颈。预计明年2-3月送样手机厂商。</p>
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</div>
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||
</div>
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||
</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'roadshows'" class="space-y-4 max-h-[600px] overflow-y-auto pr-4">
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<div class="chat chat-start">
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<div class="chat-header">2025-07-31</div>
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<div class="chat-bubble chat-bubble-primary">进入数据中心新赛道，开发基于Orion CPU+NPU的定制SoC及AI推理加速卡，正与领先云服务商深入谈判。汽车业务创纪录，宝马将首发骁龙Ride平台。</div>
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</div>
|
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<div class="chat chat-end">
|
||
<div class="chat-header">2025-05-01</div>
|
||
<div class="chat-bubble chat-bubble-info">移动端AI处于"功能机向智能机过渡"阶段，NPU需求推动ASP提升。PC市场目标2029财年40亿美元收入。手机、IoT、汽车业务均实现双位数同比增长。</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="chat chat-start">
|
||
<div class="chat-header">2025-02-06</div>
|
||
<div class="chat-bubble chat-bubble-primary">骁龙8 Elite for Galaxy成为向AI智能手机过渡的核心平台。骁龙X系列PC平台目标2026年实现超100款设计商业化。汽车业务营收同比增61%，IoT增36%。</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="chat chat-end">
|
||
<div class="chat-header">2024-09-25</div>
|
||
<div class="chat-bubble chat-bubble-info">端侧AI布局全面，覆盖手机、PC、IoT、汽车。骁龙8 Gen3算力超80 TOPS。PC芯片骁龙8cx Gen4算力达45 TOPS，满足微软Copilot要求。汽车座舱国内市占率超50%。</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="chat chat-start">
|
||
<div class="chat-header">2024-08-16</div>
|
||
<div class="chat-bubble chat-bubble-primary">苹果计划在2025年iPhone 17系列全面替换高通基带。高通PC芯片ASP约150-180美元，分析师预测2026年市占率约5-8%，与公司目标有差距。</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div x-show="tab === 'reports'" class="space-y-4">
|
||
<div class="p-4 bg-slate-800/50 rounded-lg border border-slate-700">
|
||
<p class="font-semibold text-sky-300">研报核心观点</p>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm mt-2">研究报告虽未直接聚焦“高通概念”，但多份报告从不同侧面反映了其所处环境。报告普遍关注到“多模态AI”概念热度飙升，这将直接带动对高通骁龙芯片的需求。同时，手机和集成电路的出口数据变化、消费电子概念的热度波动，以及其竞争对手（英伟达、AMD、博通）的股价表现，都是评估高通市场地位和行业景气度的重要参考。整体市场情绪继续追捧AI及芯片相关标的，高通作为核心供应商有望间接受益，但需警惕关税政策和地缘风险带来的不确定性。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Core Concept Stocks -->
|
||
<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-6 section-title">核心概念股列表</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table w-full text-left">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>核心关联原因</th>
|
||
<th>其他标签</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<!-- 供应链 -->
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>长电科技</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600584" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">600584</a></td>
|
||
<td>集团子公司星科金朋是高通重要封测合作伙伴，曾获“卓越供应商奖”。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">供应链, 封测</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>麦捷科技</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300319" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">300319</a></td>
|
||
<td>一体成型电感产品在高通AI PC平台通过金牌认证，深度绑定。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">供应链, 电感</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>顺络电子</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002138" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">002138</a></td>
|
||
<td>小尺寸热压一体成型功率电感产品进入高通认证方案，国内首发。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">供应链, 电感</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>佰维存储</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688525" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">688525</a></td>
|
||
<td>主要产品已进入高通合格供应商清单名录。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">供应链, 存储</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>易天股份</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300812" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">300812</a></td>
|
||
<td>在Chiplet专用设备方面已取得了高通等客户订单。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">供应链, 设备</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>中电港</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=001287" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">001287</a></td>
|
||
<td>高通在国内授权的核心分销商之一。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">供应链, 分销</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
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<!-- 合作 -->
|
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<tr>
|
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<td>中科创达</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300496" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">300496</a></td>
|
||
<td>高通的重要战略合作伙伴，深度参与其智能汽车、AI眼镜等平台软件开发。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">合作, 智驾</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>东软集团</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600718" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">600718</a></td>
|
||
<td>基于高通8297平台打造端侧AI智能座舱域控制器。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">合作, 智驾</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>虹软科技</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688088" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">688088</a></td>
|
||
<td>依托高通Snapdragon Ride平台构建行泊一体辅助驾驶解决方案。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">合作, 智驾</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>诚迈科技</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300598" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">300598</a></td>
|
||
<td>发布新一代跨域融合整车操作系统FusionOS，已全面适配高通最新产品。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">合作, 智驾</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<!-- 采购 -->
|
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<tr>
|
||
<td>移远通信</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603236" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">603236</a></td>
|
||
<td>第一大供应商为高通，采购金额占境外采购总额比例约60%。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-warning badge-outline">采购, 模组</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>广和通</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300638" target="_blank" class="link link-primary">300638</a></td>
|
||
<td>推出基于高通平台的网联+座舱产品和解决方案。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">合作, 模组</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
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</tbody>
|
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|
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