487 lines
32 KiB
HTML
487 lines
32 KiB
HTML
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<title>深度行研：AR眼镜</title>
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<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto space-y-8">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center py-8">
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<h1 class="text-4xl sm:text-6xl font-bold glow-text bg-clip-text text-transparent bg-gradient-to-r from-sky-300 to-violet-400">
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深度行研：AR眼镜
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</h1>
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<p class="mt-4 text-lg text-slate-400">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 呈现</p>
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<div class="alert bg-black/30 border border-yellow-400/30 text-yellow-300 mt-6 max-w-4xl mx-auto">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="stroke-current shrink-0 h-6 w-6" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M12 9v2m0 4h.01m-6.938 4h13.856c1.54 0 2.502-1.667 1.732-3L13.732 4c-.77-1.333-2.694-1.333-3.464 0L3.34 16c-.77 1.333.192 3 1.732 3z" /></svg>
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<span>本报告为AI合成数据，内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，投资需谨慎。</span>
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</div>
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</header>
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<!-- Insight Section -->
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<main class="glass-card p-6 sm:p-10 space-y-8">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold section-title glow-text">概念Insight深度剖析</h2>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold text-sky-300 mb-3">0. 概念事件驱动</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300 leading-relaxed">AR眼镜概念近期热度急剧升温，其核心驱动力源于全球科技巨头在该领域的实质性进展和明确的产品发布预期，叠加AI大模型技术突破带来的全新应用场景想象空间。**Meta Connect大会（预计2024年9月）**成为市场风向标，预计将发布首款带显示屏的真正AR眼镜原型机**Celeste / Hypernova**，被视为开启AR眼镜元年的关键事件。同时，国内厂商密集发布新品，谷歌、苹果、小米等巨头亦在2025年有明确规划，产业共振效应显著。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold text-sky-300 mb-3">1. 核心观点摘要</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300 leading-relaxed">AR眼镜正处在从概念导入到商业化引爆的前夜，其核心是 **“AI大模型（软件灵魂）”** 与 **“光学显示技术（硬件躯体）”** 的双轮驱动。当前，以Meta为首的“AI+拍摄/音频”智能眼镜已成功验证市场需求，为具备显示功能的真AR眼镜铺平了道路。未来2-3年，随着核心光学部件成本下降和技术迭代，AR眼镜有望接力智能手机，成为下一个出货量过亿的消费电子终端。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold text-sky-300 mb-3">2. 核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-4 list-disc list-inside text-slate-300 leading-relaxed">
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<li><strong class="text-white">技术范式革命：</strong> AR眼镜是下一代计算平台的入口，AI赋能使其从“显示器”质变为“智能助手”，这是其核心价值。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">供应链成熟与成本下探：</strong> 光学显示系统（成本占比40%+）技术路径逐步清晰，从Micro-OLED/LCoS向终极方案Micro-LED演进，从Birdbath向更轻薄的光波导技术渗透。材料创新如碳化硅（SiC）是引爆高端市场的关键。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">巨头入局与生态构建：</strong> Meta、苹果、谷歌等巨头入局，带来资本、研发和成熟的应用生态，解决“有设备无内容”的早期困境。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">【预期差一】产品形态混淆 (AI眼镜 ≠ AR眼镜)：</strong> 市场可能高估了真AR眼镜（带光波导显示，年出货量约55万副）的短期放量速度，而低估了AI眼镜（无/弱显示，年销量超200万部）作为“先行军”的作用。短期业绩在AI眼镜，长期估值在AR眼镜。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">【预期差二】关键环节忽视 (渠道与服务)：</strong> 在中国超50%的近视率背景下，“验光配镜”是走向大众的“最后一公里”。博士眼镜等渠道服务商通过深度绑定品牌，扮演关键角色，其商业模式独特性可能被低估。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold text-sky-300 mb-3">3. 关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h3>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div class="bg-black/20 p-4 rounded-2xl border border-white/10">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-white mb-2">近期催化剂 (未来3-6个月)</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-slate-300">
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<li><strong>Meta Connect大会 (2024.9):</strong> 发布首款带屏AR眼镜，明确主流技术路径。</li>
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<li><strong>Google/XREAL Project Aura:</strong> 安卓生态正式进入AR领域。</li>
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<li><strong>国内厂商新品密集发布:</strong> 持续市场热度与技术迭代。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-black/20 p-4 rounded-2xl border border-white/10">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-white mb-2">长期发展路径</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-slate-300">
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<li><strong>阶段一 (24-25年):</strong> 过渡与渗透期，销量向千万级迈进。</li>
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<li><strong>阶段二 (26-27年):</strong> 技术突破与生态爆发期，Micro-LED+衍射光波导成熟。</li>
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<li><strong>阶段三 (28-30年):</strong> 大众化普及期，成本大幅降低，开始替代手机场景。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold text-sky-300 mb-3">4. 产业链与核心公司深度剖析</h3>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto bg-black/20 p-4 rounded-2xl border border-white/10">
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<table class="table table-sm">
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<thead class="text-white">
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<tr>
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<th>产业链环节</th>
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<th>核心技术/业务</th>
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<th>核心公司</th>
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<th>投资逻辑</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<td rowspan="3" class="font-bold">上游：核心元器件</td>
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<td>光学系统 (光波导/镜片/显示屏)</td>
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<td>水晶光电, 康耐特光学, JBD, 韦尔股份, 晶盛机电(SiC)</td>
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<td>价值量最高，技术壁垒最深，是长期最具确定性的方向。</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>芯片</td>
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<td>高通 (XR系列), 恒玄科技 (SoC)</td>
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<td>决定设备性能与功耗的核心。</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td>结构件/其他</td>
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<td>科森科技, 宇瞳光学</td>
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<td>为核心设备提供精密组件。</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="font-bold">中游：整机代工</td>
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<td>组装与制造</td>
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<td>歌尔股份 (Meta核心), 立讯精密 (XREAL)</td>
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<td>深度绑定大客户，最直接分享行业爆发红利。</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="font-bold">下游：品牌与渠道</td>
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<td>品牌厂商与服务</td>
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<td>Meta, 华为, 小米, 雷鸟; <strong class="text-yellow-300">博士眼镜</strong></td>
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<td class="text-yellow-300">博士眼镜卡位下游验配服务“最后一公里”，商业模式独特。</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold text-sky-300 mb-3">5. 潜在风险与挑战</h3>
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<ul class="grid md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-4 text-slate-300">
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<li class="bg-red-900/20 p-4 rounded-xl border border-red-500/20"><strong>技术风险:</strong> 光波导/Micro-LED良率与成本，续航问题仍是巨大挑战。</li>
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<li class="bg-red-900/20 p-4 rounded-xl border border-red-500/20"><strong>商业化风险:</strong> “杀手级应用”缺失，高昂定价抑制大众消费。</li>
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<li class="bg-red-900/20 p-4 rounded-xl border border-red-500/20"><strong>社会风险:</strong> 隐私与社会接受度问题需要法规与共识建立。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold text-sky-300 mb-3">6. 综合结论与投资启示</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300 leading-relaxed mb-4">AR眼镜赛道正处在由**“主题炒作”向“基本面驱动”的早期过渡阶段**。这是一个长坡厚雪的赛道，短期看催化，长期看技术突破和成本下降。</p>
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<div class="bg-black/20 p-6 rounded-2xl border border-white/10">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-white mb-3">最具投资价值的细分环节：</h4>
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<ol class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-2 text-slate-300">
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<li><strong>核心光学元件 (光波导 & Micro-LED):</strong> 长期最具确定性和成长空间。</li>
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<li><strong>整机代工龙头 (如歌尔股份):</strong> 直接分享行业爆发红利，确定性高。</li>
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<li><strong>差异化渠道与服务 (如博士眼镜):</strong> 商业模式独特，具备平台潜力。</li>
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</ol>
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-white mt-4 mb-3">需重点跟踪的关键指标：</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-300 leading-relaxed">Meta新品的<strong>实际出货量</strong>、Micro-LED的<strong>量产良率与成本曲线</strong>、SiC晶圆的<strong>成本下降速度</strong>、以及核心公司的<strong>相关业务收入和毛利率</strong>变化。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</main>
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<!-- Data Deep Dive - Bento Grid -->
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<section class="space-y-8">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold section-title glow-text">数据深潜 & 市场洞察</h2>
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<div class="glass-card bento-item col-span-3 lg:col-span-2 row-span-2 p-6 flex flex-col">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-sky-300 mb-4 flex items-center">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="currentColor" class="w-6 h-6 mr-2"><path d="M10.5 4.5a7.5 7.5 0 1 0 0 15 7.5 7.5 0 0 0 0-15ZM1.5 12a9 9 0 1 1 18 0 9 9 0 0 1-18 0Z" clip-rule="evenodd" /><path d="M10.5 7.125a.375.375 0 0 1 .375.375v4.5a.375.375 0 0 1-.75 0v-4.5a.375.375 0 0 1 .375-.375ZM10.5 15a.75.75 0 1 0 0 1.5.75.75 0 0 0 0-1.5Z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
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关键数据摘要
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</h3>
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<div x-data="{ tab: 'news' }" class="flex-grow flex flex-col">
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<div class="tabs tabs-bordered mb-4">
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<a class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'news' }" @click="tab = 'news'">新闻数据</a>
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<a class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'roadshow' }" @click="tab = 'roadshow'">路演纪要</a>
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<a class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'report' }" @click="tab = 'report'">研报精粹</a>
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</div>
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<div class="flex-grow overflow-y-auto pr-2" style="max-height: 500px;">
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<div x-show="tab === 'news'">
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<ul class="space-y-3 list-disc list-inside text-slate-300">
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<li><strong>市场规模:</strong> 2024年全球出货量预计55.3万副，中国28.6万副。供应链上游明年产能准备预期达1200w~1700w。</li>
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<li><strong>产品动态:</strong> Meta Ray-Ban Meta销量已破225万部；首款带屏AR眼镜Hypernova预计25年上市。国内Rokid AR Lite开售1日订货破万。</li>
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<li><strong>技术核心:</strong> 光学显示系统占成本40%+。光波导是理想方案，SiC材料因高折射率成为理想基底，降本是关键。</li>
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<li><strong>渠道赋能:</strong> 博士眼镜与华为、Rokid、雷鸟、魅族等深度合作，提供销售+验光配镜服务，解决“最后一公里”问题。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'roadshow'" style="display: none;">
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<ul class="space-y-3 list-disc list-inside text-slate-300">
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<li><strong>技术路径:</strong> 2024-25年分体式/简化显示产品先行；2026年后一体式Micro-LED产品可期。未来趋势为低成本、轻量化的衍射光波导。</li>
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<li><strong>成本分析 (SiC):</strong> 原材料占成本50%。目标2028-30年8寸晶圆降至1000美元内，双目AR眼镜总成本约4000元。</li>
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<li><strong>市场预测:</strong> 2025年全球AI/AR眼镜发货量预计翻倍至500万台。2025年AR销量有望突破千万台。</li>
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<li><strong>供应链价值:</strong> Meta 2025年过渡方案为LCOS+几何光波导，2026年升级为Micro-LED+衍射光波导。恒玄科技芯片已卡位小米、字节。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div x-show="tab === 'report'" style="display: none;">
|
||
<ul class="space-y-3 list-disc list-inside text-slate-300">
|
||
<li><strong>全球增长:</strong> 2025年全球AI眼镜销量预计增长至550万台，2030年有望达9000万台 (CAGR 97%)。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>技术趋势:</strong> 光波导方案占比持续提升，Yole预测2027年渗透率达99%。MicroLED是未来主流显示技术，2027年市场规模预计25亿美元。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>核心挑战:</strong> 成本仍是最大痛点，AR显示模组成本高。续航问题严峻，双目全彩AR眼镜续航仅约2小时。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>厂商动态:</strong> Meta Orion原型机指引终极方向。国内雷鸟、Xreal、Rokid、魅族等积极布局，技术路线各有侧重。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="glass-card bento-item col-span-3 lg:col-span-1 row-span-1 p-6 flex flex-col justify-between">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-sky-300 mb-2">行业驱动力</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-400">AI大模型成熟 & 光学显示技术迭代</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="text-right">
|
||
<span class="text-5xl font-bold bg-clip-text text-transparent bg-gradient-to-r from-green-300 to-teal-400">双轮驱动</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="glass-card bento-item col-span-3 lg:col-span-1 row-span-1 p-6 flex flex-col justify-between">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-sky-300 mb-2">核心技术瓶颈</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-400">成本、续航、显示效果</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="text-right">
|
||
<span class="text-5xl font-bold bg-clip-text text-transparent bg-gradient-to-r from-amber-300 to-orange-400">不可能三角</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="glass-card bento-item col-span-3 row-span-1 p-6">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-sky-300 mb-4">全球AI眼镜销量预测 (万台)</h3>
|
||
<div id="marketChart" style="width: 100%; height: 250px;"></div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock Data Section -->
|
||
<section class="space-y-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold section-title glow-text">相关概念股</h2>
|
||
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-6 sm:p-8">
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold text-sky-300 mb-4">AR眼镜核心概念股</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>关联原因</th>
|
||
<th>其他标签</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td>国光电器</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002045" target="_blank">002045</a></td><td>Meta AR眼镜</td><td>Meta, AR眼镜</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>歌尔股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002241" target="_blank">002241</a></td><td>Meta AR眼镜</td><td>Meta, AR眼镜</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>韦尔股份</td><td>N/A</td><td>Meta AR眼镜</td><td>Meta, AR眼镜</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>水晶光电</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002273" target="_blank">002273</a></td><td>Meta AR眼镜</td><td>Meta, AR眼镜</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>飞荣达</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300602" target="_blank">300602</a></td><td>与Meta合作</td><td>Meta, 合作</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>茂莱光学</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688502" target="_blank">688502</a></td><td>与Meta合作</td><td>Meta, 合作</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>隆利科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300752" target="_blank">300752</a></td><td>与Meta合作</td><td>Meta, 合作</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>TCL科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000100" target="_blank">000100</a></td><td>AR眼镜厂商</td><td>AR眼镜, 厂商</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>中科创达</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300496" target="_blank">300496</a></td><td>AR眼镜厂商</td><td>AR眼镜, 厂商</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>天健股份</td><td>N/A</td><td>AR眼镜厂商</td><td>AR眼镜, 厂商</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>创维数字</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000810" target="_blank">000810</a></td><td>AR眼镜厂商</td><td>AR眼镜, 厂商</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>欧菲光</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002456" target="_blank">002456</a></td><td>AR眼镜产业链</td><td>AR眼镜, 产业链</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>佳禾智能</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300793" target="_blank">300793</a></td><td>AR眼镜产业链</td><td>AR眼镜, 产业链</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>智立方</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301312" target="_blank">301312</a></td><td>AR眼镜产业链</td><td>AR眼镜, 产业链</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>亿道信息</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=001314" target="_blank">001314</a></td><td>AR眼镜产业链</td><td>AR眼镜, 产业链</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>英唐智控</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300131" target="_blank">300131</a></td><td>AR眼镜产业链</td><td>AR眼镜, 产业链</td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-6 sm:p-8">
|
||
<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold text-sky-300 mb-4">近期涨幅异动分析</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>异动日期</th>
|
||
<th>涨跌幅</th>
|
||
<th>核心驱动原因摘要</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td>贝隆精密</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301567" target="_blank">301567</a></td><td>2025-06-17</td><td class="text-error">+9.91%</td><td>AR眼镜产业链深度绑定，与舜宇光学紧密合作，受益于小米AI眼镜发布预期。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>比依股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603215" target="_blank">603215</a></td><td>2025-06-17</td><td class="text-error">+6.13%</td><td>公告披露参股公司（上海理湃光晶）为AR智能眼镜领域公司，引发市场对公司布局相关产业链的关注。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>博士眼镜</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300622" target="_blank">300622</a></td><td>2025-06-17</td><td class="text-error">+7.68%</td><td>AI眼镜行业利好集中释放（Meta/小米新品），作为线下渠道和验配服务核心标的，受益于板块整体走强。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>波长光电</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301421" target="_blank">301421</a></td><td>2025-08-22</td><td class="text-error">+7.10%</td><td>受益于META AR眼镜发布预期，光学元件板块整体走强，市场看好MicroLED技术前景。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>华灿光电</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300323" target="_blank">300323</a></td><td>2025-06-18</td><td class="text-error">+6.58%</td><td>AI眼镜/AR光学概念炒作，受益于半导体及先进封装板块整体活跃。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>影石创新</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688775" target="_blank">688775</a></td><td>2025-06-18</td><td class="text-error">+20.0%</td><td>作为全景相机龙头，技术可复用于智能眼镜；受益于Meta新品发布及智能眼镜产业快速发展。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>光峰科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688007" target="_blank">688007</a></td><td>2025-08-26</td><td class="text-error">+9.73%</td><td>AR眼镜LCos技术布局获市场高度认可，Meta第三代眼镜采用LCos技术的重大利好。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>力鼎光电</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=605118" target="_blank">605118</a></td><td>2025-08-04</td><td class="text-error">+10.0%</td><td>通过参股公司取得衍射波导镜片量产资格，受益于苹果Vision Pro 2备货及国内厂商加单。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>华盛昌</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002980" target="_blank">002980</a></td><td>2025-09-22</td><td class="text-error">+10.0%</td><td>“工业AI测量眼镜”完成试产，将参加国网首次AR红外测温眼镜招标，政策需求+国产替代。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>蓝特光学</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688127" target="_blank">688127</a></td><td>2025-08-12</td><td class="text-error">+7.17%</td><td>AI眼镜行业景气度提升，合作项目增加，AR眼镜材料升级迭代带来机遇。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>宸展光电</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=003019" target="_blank">003019</a></td><td>2025-08-22</td><td class="text-error">+8.60%</td><td>受益于AR/VR产业链热度上升（META发布在即）及消费电子产业链积极信号。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>广和通</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300638" target="_blank">300638</a></td><td>2025-11-27</td><td class="text-error">+7.09%</td><td>券商研报强绑定公司与谷歌下一代AR眼镜（Project Aura），被市场视为“端侧AI”正宗标的。</td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
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<!-- Footer -->
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<footer class="footer footer-center p-4 text-base-content">
|
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<aside>
|
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<p class="text-slate-500">Copyright © 2024 - 北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研”</p>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-600 text-sm">本报告为AI合成数据，不构成投资建议，据此操作，风险自担。</p>
|
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</aside>
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</footer>
|
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</div>
|
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