587 lines
34 KiB
HTML
587 lines
34 KiB
HTML
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<title>TPU芯片 - 深度概念报告</title>
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center p-8 glass-card rounded-3xl glow-border">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold bg-clip-text text-transparent bg-gradient-to-r from-blue-400 via-purple-400 to-indigo-400 mb-2">
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TPU芯片 深度概念报告
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</h1>
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<p class="text-indigo-300">挑战算力霸权：谷歌的战略转向与产业链重塑</p>
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<div class="divider before:bg-indigo-800 after:bg-indigo-800 my-4"></div>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-500">
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北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 呈现 | 本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。
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</p>
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</header>
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<!-- Bento Grid Layout for Core Insights -->
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<main class="bento-grid">
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<!-- Concept Event & Timeline -->
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<section class="grid-item glass-card col-span-12 lg:col-span-12 glow-border">
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<h2 class="sub-title">0. 概念事件：从“对内自用”到“对外商业化”的战略转型</h2>
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<div class="prose prose-custom max-w-none text-sm">
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<p>TPU（Tensor Processing Unit）芯片概念的核心驱动力，源于谷歌一项重大战略转型：旨在挑战英伟达在AI算力市场的垄断地位。这一转型由一系列紧密相连的事件和趋势所催化，形成了完整的时间轴和叙事逻辑。</p>
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<ul class="space-y-2">
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<li><strong>技术奠基期 (2016-2023):</strong> 谷歌持续迭代TPU产品线（v1-v5），核心目标是<strong>降低内部算力成本</strong>和<strong>保障供应链安全</strong>，并构建了以TensorFlow、JAX、XLA为核心的软件生态。</li>
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<li><strong>战略转折与市场发酵期 (2024-2025):</strong>
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<ul class="pl-4">
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<li><strong>2025年4月9日 (关键催化剂):</strong> 谷歌发布<strong>第七代TPU “Ironwood” (v7)</strong>，性能全面对标英伟达B200系列，标志着技术上已具备顶级竞争力。</li>
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<li><strong>2025年下半年 (商业化落地):</strong> 新闻密集报道谷歌正与META、OpenAI等大型客户接洽。特别是<strong>META计划斥资数十亿美元部署TPU</strong>的消息，为商业化前景提供了强力背书。</li>
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</ul>
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</li>
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<li><strong>预期升温与产业链映射期 (2025至今):</strong> 市场对TPU出货量预期急剧升温，2026年预测已达<strong>400-500万颗</strong>。资本市场开始深度挖掘TPU供应链，形成了清晰的投资图谱。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Core Logic -->
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<section class="grid-item glass-card col-span-12 lg:col-span-8 glow-border">
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<h2 class="sub-title">1. 核心逻辑：技术、成本与战略三重驱动</h2>
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<div class="prose prose-custom max-w-none text-sm space-y-4">
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<p>TPU芯片概念的核心在于谷歌凭借其技术领先的自研芯片和颠覆性的成本优势，正从一个内部成本中心战略性地转变为一个外部收入中心，意图重塑AI算力市场格局。当前，该概念已从主题炒作过渡到<strong>基本面驱动的早期阶段</strong>。</p>
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<ol>
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<li><strong>经济驱动（TCO优势）:</strong> 支撑概念的根本逻辑。新闻数据显示，租用TPU可使成本<strong>平均下降至少50%</strong>，对META等巨头具备碾压性TCO优势。</li>
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<li><strong>战略驱动（供应链“去NVIDIA化”）:</strong> 为市场提供了<strong>第一个真正意义上的高性能、可规模化部署的替代方案</strong>，解决了行业对英伟达的过度依赖风险。</li>
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<li><strong>技术驱动（专用架构优势）:</strong> 作为ASIC芯片，TPU在<strong>算力利用率（50%+ vs GPU 20-40%）</strong>和<strong>能效比</strong>上具备天然优势。最新一代v7（Ironwood）性能已与B200旗鼓相当。</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Market Perception & Expectation Gap -->
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<section class="grid-item glass-card col-span-12 lg:col-span-4 glow-border">
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<h2 class="sub-title">2. 市场认知与预期差</h2>
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<div class="prose prose-custom max-w-none text-sm space-y-3">
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<p>市场情绪整体<strong>高度乐观</strong>，但存在显著预期差：</p>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>忽视生态壁垒:</strong> 市场可能<strong>严重低估了英伟达CUDA生态的护城河</strong>。TPU的JAX+XLA生态培育将是一个漫长且不确定的过程。</li>
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<li><strong>盲目乐观的出货量:</strong> 市场倾向于采信最乐观的出货量预测，但实际交付将受CoWoS产能、客户导入速度等多重影响。</li>
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<li><strong>信息源批判性不足:</strong> 路演中存在明显谬误（如“苹果使用TPU”），高涨情绪下容易形成认知泡沫。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Catalysts & Development Path -->
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<section class="grid-item glass-card col-span-12 lg:col-span-7 glow-border">
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<h2 class="sub-title">3. 关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h2>
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<div class="prose prose-custom max-w-none text-sm">
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<h4 class="text-indigo-300 !mb-2">近期催化剂 (未来3-6个月)</h4>
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<ul class="!mt-0">
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<li><strong>v7 (Ironwood) 商业化落地</strong>：谷歌云正式大规模上架v7实例并公布租赁价格。</li>
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<li><strong>首个大型外部客户订单官方确认</strong>：谷歌或META官方宣布具体采购/租赁协议。</li>
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<li><strong>TPU v8 进一步信息披露</strong>：与联发科的合作进展、HDI PCB设计导入细节。</li>
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</ul>
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<h4 class="text-indigo-300 !mb-2">长期发展路径</h4>
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<ul class="!mt-0">
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<li><strong>第一阶段 (当前-2026年)：</strong> 头部客户突破期，实现年出货数百万片的规模。</li>
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<li><strong>第二阶段 (2026-2028年)：</strong> 生态构建与市场渗透期，推广JAX+XLA软件栈。</li>
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<li><strong>第三阶段 (2028年以后)：</strong> 成为主流算力选择之一，占据市场15%-25%的稳定份额。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Potential Risks -->
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<section class="grid-item glass-card col-span-12 lg:col-span-5 glow-border">
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<h2 class="sub-title">4. 潜在风险与挑战</h2>
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<div class="prose prose-custom max-w-none text-sm space-y-3">
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<ul>
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<li><strong>技术风险:</strong> <strong>生态系统壁垒</strong>是最大挑战，CUDA护城河极深。</li>
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<li><strong>商业化风险:</strong> 客户对生态锁定的担忧，以及实际TCO优势有待市场检验。</li>
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<li><strong>政策与竞争风险:</strong> 美国对HBM的出口管制，以及英伟达必然采取的反击策略。</li>
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<li><strong>信息交叉验证风险:</strong> 出货量预测存在巨大差异，路演信息真实性存疑（如“苹果使用TPU”），以及市场混淆博通(AVGO)与博通集成。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</section>
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</main>
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<!-- Deep Dive Data Tabs -->
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<section class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6" x-data="{ tab: 'news' }">
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<div class="tabs tabs-boxed bg-transparent mb-4">
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<a class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'news' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'news'">关键新闻</a>
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<a class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'roadshow' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'roadshow'">路演纪要</a>
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<a class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'research' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'research'">研报精粹</a>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'news'" class="prose prose-custom max-w-none text-sm">
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<h3 class="!mt-0">TPU 产品路线图与性能</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>TPU v7 (Ironwood):</strong> 对标英伟达B200，FP8算力达<strong>4614 TFLOPS</strong>，配192GB HBM3e显存。功耗575W，远低于竞品。支持<strong>9216颗</strong>芯片互联。</li>
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<li><strong>TPU v8:</strong> 计划于27年推出，PCB将由高多层转为<strong>HDI设计</strong>。V8p提前至26年底发布，与联发科联合设计以控制成本。</li>
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<li><strong>成本优势:</strong> 租用谷歌TPU可使成本平均下降<strong>至少50%</strong>。OpenAI已从英伟达处获得约30%的算力集群报价折扣，部分归因于TPU的竞争压力。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3>市场动态与商业策略</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>需求激增:</strong> 谷歌自身AI业务、新增大型客户（META、OpenAI、Anthropic）以及外供态度转变，共同推动需求。</li>
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<li><strong>对外销售:</strong> 谷歌正与小型云服务商接洽，计划将TPU在第三方CSP上架。META计划在2027年斥资数十亿美元部署TPU。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3>供应链核心环节</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>PCB:</strong> V7采用M8高多层设计，<strong>胜宏科技</strong>、<strong>沪电股份</strong>为主要供应商，合计份额约70-80%。V8将转向HDI设计。</li>
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<li><strong>电源:</strong> <strong>新雷能</strong>成功切入V7电源供应链，提供二次和三次电源模块，意向订单超5亿美金。</li>
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<li><strong>散热:</strong> V5后多为一体化液冷形态，台系厂商主导，国内<strong>英维克</strong>、<strong>比亚迪电子</strong>处于测试阶段。</li>
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<li><strong>光模块:</strong> <strong>中际旭创</strong>为谷歌核心供应商，份额超60%。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'roadshow'" x-cloak class="prose prose-custom max-w-none text-sm">
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<h3 class="!mt-0">TPU vs GPU 核心差异</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>架构专用性:</strong> TPU为深度学习（矩阵乘法）优化，GPU为图形渲染设计。</li>
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<li><strong>利用率:</strong> TPU利用率可达50-60%，而GPU在特定场景下仅10-20%。</li>
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<li><strong>成本与能效:</strong> TPU集群租赁成本为同等算力GPU的1/2至1/4，同算力下功耗减半。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3>供应链格局演变</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>ODM厂商:</strong> 2020年前为鸿海，因PUE问题被替换。2020-2024年由某具备特殊电源与散热IP的厂商独家代工。</li>
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<li><strong>芯片设计:</strong> 博通长期为核心伙伴。自V8e起，谷歌转向自主主导设计，并引入联发科作为低成本二供。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3>关键信息与谬误澄清</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>LPU渊源:</strong> Groq创始人曾参与设计谷歌TPU，LPU继承了TPU的存内计算理念。</li>
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<li><strong>谬误澄清:</strong> 市场流传的“苹果使用谷歌TPU训练模型”无公开证据支持，极可能为错误信息。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'research'" x-cloak class="prose prose-custom max-w-none text-sm">
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<h3 class="!mt-0">TPU Ironwood (v7) 技术细节 (Hot Chips 2025)</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>性能参数:</strong> FP8算力4614 TFLOPS，192GB HBM3e内存，7.3TB/s内存带宽，1.2TBps片间互联带宽，性能接近英伟达B200。</li>
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<li><strong>超级集群:</strong> 支持通过光交换机(OCS)构建<strong>9,216颗芯片</strong>的超级集群，远超v4的4,096颗。</li>
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<li><strong>技术升级:</strong> 首次支持FP8计算，能效比较v6提升近一倍。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3>生态与互联</h3>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>互联架构:</strong> 采用自有的<strong>OCS+ICI</strong>闭环协议方案，实现大规模集群扩展。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>开放生态:</strong> 谷歌是<strong>UALink联盟</strong>核心成员，推动开放互联生态以挑战英伟达的NVLink。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h3>战略定位</h3>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>核心动机:</strong> 摆脱对英伟达依赖、降低算力成本、保障供应链安全。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>市场影响:</strong> 与微软、Amazon等自研芯片共同挑战GPU垄断，推动定制ASIC市场高速增长。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- ECharts Visualization -->
|
||
<section class="grid-item glass-card col-span-12 glow-border">
|
||
<h2 class="sub-title">TPU 出货量预测 (综合市场数据)</h2>
|
||
<div id="shipmentChart" style="width: 100%; height: 400px;"></div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Industry Chain Analysis -->
|
||
<section class="grid-item glass-card col-span-12 glow-border">
|
||
<h2 class="sub-title">产业链与核心公司深度剖析</h2>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6 prose prose-custom max-w-none text-sm">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="text-blue-300 !mt-0">上游 (设计与制造)</h4>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>芯片设计:</strong> 谷歌 (主导), 博通 (核心), 联发科 (新晋)</li>
|
||
<li><strong>芯片制造:</strong> 台积电 (代工)</li>
|
||
<li><strong>核心材料:</strong> 高速CCL (台光电), M8/M9树脂 (<strong>东材科技</strong>)</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="text-purple-300 !mt-0">中游 (核心零部件)</h4>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>PCB:</strong> <strong>胜宏科技</strong> (V7一供, HDI龙头), <strong>沪电股份</strong>, <strong>深南电路</strong></li>
|
||
<li><strong>电源模块:</strong> <strong>新雷能</strong> (V7核心供应商, 订单明确)</li>
|
||
<li><strong>散热:</strong> 液冷方案 (英维克, 比亚迪电子 - 测试中)</li>
|
||
<li><strong>光模块:</strong> <strong>中际旭创</strong> (谷歌核心供应商)</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="text-indigo-300 !mt-0">下游 (系统集成与应用)</h4>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>ODM/组装:</strong> 天弘(Celestica), 鸿海(Foxconn)</li>
|
||
<li><strong>最终用户:</strong> 谷歌 (自用), META, OpenAI, Anthropic (外部客户)</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="divider before:bg-indigo-800 after:bg-indigo-800 my-4"></div>
|
||
<div class="prose prose-custom max-w-none text-sm">
|
||
<h4 class="!mt-0">投资价值排序与逻辑强度</h4>
|
||
<p><strong>领导者 (逻辑最纯粹):</strong></p>
|
||
<ol>
|
||
<li><strong>新雷能 (300593):</strong> 逻辑最清晰强劲。成功切入V7供应链，意向订单高达超5亿美金，代表从0到1的重大突破，业绩弹性巨大。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>胜宏科技 (300476):</strong> V7 PCB大份额一供（40%）。随着V8转向HDI设计，作为全球HDI龙头的胜宏科技有望进一步提升份额和价值量。</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
<p><strong>核心参与者:</strong> <strong>沪电股份 (002463) / 深南电路 (002916)</strong> 作为PCB核心供应商，是产业链不可或缺的部分。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>间接受益者:</strong> <strong>东材科技 (601208)</strong> (上游材料替代)、<strong>中际旭创 (300308)</strong> (算力基础设施)。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>主题映射 (逻辑较弱):</strong> <strong>天普股份、科德教育</strong>等，逻辑来自于对国产TPU公司“中昊芯英”的参股预期，与谷歌TPU供应链无直接关系，风险极高。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock Tables -->
|
||
<section class="space-y-8">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h2 class="section-title">相关股票列表</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑</th>
|
||
<th>标签</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<!-- Google TPU Supply Chain -->
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>新雷能</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300593" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">300593</a></td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">成功切入谷歌TPU（V7）电源供应链；意向订单超过5亿美金，业绩弹性大。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-primary">谷歌TPU</div> <div class="badge badge-secondary">电源</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>胜宏科技</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300476" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">300476</a></td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">谷歌V7 PCB大份额一供，V8转向HDI设计后，作为HDI龙头有望提升份额及价值量。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-primary">谷歌TPU</div> <div class="badge badge-secondary">PCB</div> <div class="badge badge-accent">HDI</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>沪电股份</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002463" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">002463</a></td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">核心供应商，供应TPU v6和v7的PCB，2025年份额约30%。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-primary">谷歌TPU</div> <div class="badge badge-secondary">PCB</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>深南电路</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002916" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">002916</a></td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">供应TPU V7的44层板，已通过认证且份额持续提升。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-primary">谷歌TPU</div> <div class="badge badge-secondary">PCB</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>东材科技</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601208" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">601208</a></td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">公司是台光电核心高速树脂主力供应商，受益于TPU材料从M8升级到M9。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-primary">谷歌TPU</div> <div class="badge badge-secondary">M9材料</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>中富电路</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300814" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">300814</a></td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">与新雷能合作，进入谷歌电源模块PCB供应链。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-primary">谷歌TPU</div> <div class="badge badge-secondary">PCB</div> <div class="badge">电源</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>铂科新材</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300811" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">300811</a></td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">为TPU服务器电源供应电感。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-primary">谷歌TPU</div> <div class="badge badge-secondary">电感</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<!-- Domestic TPU Mapping -->
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>天普股份</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=605255" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">605255</a></td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">国产TPU芯片公司中昊芯英拟要约收购。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-warning">国产TPU映射</div> <div class="badge">收购</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>科德教育</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300192" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">300192</a></td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">公司持有中昊芯英股份5.41%。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-warning">国产TPU映射</div> <div class="badge">参股</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>艾布鲁</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301259" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400">301259</a></td>
|
||
<td class="text-sm">公司间接持有中昊芯英股份5.2%。</td>
|
||
<td><div class="badge badge-warning">国产TPU映射</div> <div class="badge">参股</div></td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h2 class="section-title">相关个股异动解析</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||
<table class="table">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票</th>
|
||
<th>日期</th>
|
||
<th>涨幅</th>
|
||
<th>异动解析</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>博通集成<br><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603068" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400 text-xs">603068</a></td>
|
||
<td>2025-11-26</td>
|
||
<td><span class="text-red-400 font-semibold">10.01%</span></td>
|
||
<td class="text-xs whitespace-normal">核心驱动为一场“美丽的误会”。市场将美股巨头博通(AVGO)与谷歌在TPU和CPO领域的合作利好，错误地映射到了A股同名公司“博通集成”身上，引发短线爆炒。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>腾景科技<br><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688195" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400 text-xs">688195</a></td>
|
||
<td>2025-09-05</td>
|
||
<td><span class="text-red-400 font-semibold">20.00%</span></td>
|
||
<td class="text-xs whitespace-normal">谷歌TPU外售消息，市场映射至其已批量供货的TPU光引擎精密光学元件。公司为TPU光引擎二供，单卡价值量高，订单弹性预期骤升。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>源杰科技<br><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688498" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400 text-xs">688498</a></td>
|
||
<td>2025-09-01</td>
|
||
<td><span class="text-red-400 font-semibold">20.00%</span></td>
|
||
<td class="text-xs whitespace-normal">谷歌400万卡TPU-v6集群启动，采用1.6T/800G光模块混合架构，中际旭创、新易盛等核心客户锁定光源70%以上来自源杰，需求预期上修。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>利扬芯片<br><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688135" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-indigo-400 text-xs">688135</a></td>
|
||
<td>2025-11-25</td>
|
||
<td><span class="text-red-400 font-semibold">5.65%</span></td>
|
||
<td class="text-xs whitespace-normal">虽然当日上涨核心驱动是“阿里链”，但市场情绪扩散至整个AI算力硬件。研报同时提及“谷歌TPU热度进一步升级，产业链标的受情绪催化”，利扬芯片作为测试环节受益。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
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</div>
|
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