386 lines
22 KiB
HTML
386 lines
22 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="dark">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>甲流 (Influenza A) - 深度投研报告</title>
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<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.10.1/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<script defer src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js"></script>
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<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
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<style>
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@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Noto+Sans+SC:wght@300;400;500;700&display=swap');
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body {
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font-family: 'Noto Sans SC', sans-serif;
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background-color: #05050A;
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color: #E0E0E0;
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overflow-x: hidden;
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background-image:
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radial-gradient(at 20% 20%, hsla(212, 45%, 15%, 0.3) 0px, transparent 50%),
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radial-gradient(at 80% 20%, hsla(280, 50%, 20%, 0.2) 0px, transparent 50%),
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radial-gradient(at 20% 80%, hsla(190, 55%, 25%, 0.25) 0px, transparent 50%),
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radial-gradient(at 80% 80%, hsla(340, 40%, 25%, 0.15) 0px, transparent 50%);
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}
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.glass-card {
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background: rgba(20, 20, 35, 0.4);
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backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
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-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
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border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
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border-radius: 1.5rem; /* 24px */
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box-shadow: 0 8px 32px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2);
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transition: all 0.3s ease;
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}
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.glass-card:hover {
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transform: translateY(-5px);
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box-shadow: 0 12px 40px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);
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border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.2);
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}
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.bento-grid {
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display: grid;
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gap: 1.5rem; /* 24px */
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grid-template-columns: repeat(1, minmax(0, 1fr));
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}
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@media (min-width: 1024px) {
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.bento-grid {
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grid-template-columns: repeat(3, minmax(0, 1fr));
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}
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}
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.glow-effect {
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position: absolute;
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filter: blur(120px);
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opacity: 0.3;
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pointer-events: none;
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z-index: -1;
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}
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.timeline-item::before {
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content: '';
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position: absolute;
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left: -1px;
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top: 1.25rem; /* 20px */
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width: 2px;
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height: calc(100% - 1.25rem);
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background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.2);
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}
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.timeline-dot {
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position: absolute;
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left: -8px;
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top: 1.25rem; /* 20px */
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width: 1rem; /* 16px */
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height: 1rem; /* 16px */
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border-radius: 9999px;
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background-color: #38bdf8;
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border: 2px solid #05050A;
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box-shadow: 0 0 10px #38bdf8;
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}
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.table-custom-header th {
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background-color: rgba(55, 65, 81, 0.5) !important;
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color: #c7d2fe !important;
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font-weight: 600;
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text-align: center;
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="min-h-screen">
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<!-- Glow Effects -->
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<div class="glow-effect top-0 left-0 w-96 h-96 bg-cyan-400 rounded-full"></div>
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<div class="glow-effect top-1/4 right-0 w-96 h-96 bg-purple-500 rounded-full"></div>
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<div class="glow-effect bottom-0 left-1/4 w-96 h-96 bg-indigo-600 rounded-full"></div>
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 sm:p-6 lg:p-8">
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<header class="text-center py-12">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-5xl font-bold bg-clip-text text-transparent bg-gradient-to-r from-sky-300 to-indigo-400 mb-4">
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甲流 (Influenza A) - 深度投研报告
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</h1>
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<p class="text-lg text-gray-400">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研”</p>
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</header>
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<main class="space-y-6">
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<!-- 核心观点摘要 -->
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<div class="glass-card p-6 lg:col-span-2">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-sky-300">核心观点摘要</h2>
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<p class="text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">
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“甲流”概念是一个典型的由公共卫生事件驱动、具有强季节性特征的投资主题。其当前正从情绪驱动的普涨阶段，向基本面驱动的业绩兑现和个股分化阶段过渡。核心驱动力源于确诊病例激增带来的“诊疗-用药”需求爆发，而未来的潜力则聚焦于产品迭代（新一代特效药的市场渗透）和产业链延伸（从治疗到预防与检测）。
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</p>
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</div>
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<!-- 疫情概览 -->
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<div class="glass-card p-6 flex flex-col justify-between">
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<div>
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-sky-300">疫情概览：99%以上为甲流</h2>
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<p class="text-gray-400 text-sm mb-4">
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中疾控数据显示，2025年初流感病毒阳性率持续上升，病毒株高度集中于甲型流感。
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</p>
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</div>
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<div id="virus-chart" class="w-full h-48"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心催化剂与时间轴 -->
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<div class="glass-card p-6">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-sky-300">核心催化剂与时间轴</h2>
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<div class="relative pl-4 space-y-6">
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<div class="timeline-item relative">
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<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
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<p class="text-indigo-300 font-semibold text-sm">2024年11月-12月</p>
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<h3 class="font-medium text-white">疫情抬头与预警</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-400 text-sm">流感活动上升，北京进入高峰期（H3N2），市场开始关注。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item relative">
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<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
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<p class="text-indigo-300 font-semibold text-sm">2025年1月5日-6日</p>
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<h3 class="font-medium text-white">事件引爆点</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-400 text-sm">中疾控数据“99%以上为甲流”引爆市场，抗流感药物需求暴涨。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item relative">
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<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
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<p class="text-indigo-300 font-semibold text-sm">2025年1月12日</p>
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<h3 class="font-medium text-white">官方有效性背书</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-400 text-sm">中疾控专家确认当前甲流（H1N1）对现有疫苗及药物敏感。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item relative">
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<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
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<p class="text-indigo-300 font-semibold text-sm">2025年5月22日 (追溯)</p>
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<h3 class="font-medium text-white">关键产品获批</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-400 text-sm">众生药业甲流新药“昂拉地韦”获批，为后续竞争格局埋下伏笔。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 概念核心逻辑与预期差分析 -->
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<div class="glass-card p-6 lg:col-span-2">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-sky-300">核心逻辑与预期差分析</h2>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-indigo-300">核心驱动力：高确定性的短期需求爆发</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300">逻辑链条极短且清晰：疫情爆发 → 诊疗需求激增 → 诊断、药物产品放量。这是基于现实需求的直接变现逻辑。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-indigo-300">潜在预期差一：产品力的迭代与替代</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300">市场普遍关注奥司他韦，但对疗效更优、服用更便捷的新药需求强烈。最大的预期差来源在于市场尚未充分定价 <span class="font-bold text-yellow-300">众生药业的“昂拉地韦”</span>。该国产1类新药临床数据优于奥司他韦，且价格更具竞争力，若医保谈判顺利，具备大规模替代存量市场的巨大潜力。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-red-400">潜在预期差二：信息源缺失与风险</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300">分析发现，提供的路演及大部分研报数据与“甲流”概念完全无关。这表明市场缺乏核心相关上市公司的第一手经营视角，当前乐观预期多建立在宏观新闻之上，缺少企业层面的直接验证，是 <span class="font-bold text-red-400">一个重大的信息盲点和潜在风险</span>。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 药品与疫苗动态 -->
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<div class="glass-card p-6 lg:col-span-3">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-sky-300">药品市场格局：迭代与竞争</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<!-- 颠覆者 -->
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<div class="bg-indigo-900/30 p-4 rounded-xl border border-indigo-500/50">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-yellow-300">颠覆者：众生药业 (昂拉地韦)</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-2"><strong>优势：</strong>自主研发1类新药，临床数据优于奥司他韦，具备“产品替代+市场份额抢占”的戴维斯双击潜力。</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-1"><strong>价格：</strong>165-180元/盒，性价比突出。</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-1"><strong>催化剂：</strong>医保谈判结果、儿童剂型临床进展。</p>
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</div>
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<!-- 领导者 -->
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<div class="bg-teal-900/30 p-4 rounded-xl border border-teal-500/50">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-teal-300">领导者：奥司他韦仿制药</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-2"><strong>优势：</strong>市场认知度高，渠道成熟，医保覆盖广。</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-1"><strong>风险：</strong>竞争激烈，面临新产品替代风险，增长逻辑主要为“量增”。</p>
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</div>
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<!-- 高端追赶者 -->
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<div class="bg-rose-900/30 p-4 rounded-xl border border-rose-500/50">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-rose-300">高端追赶者：玛巴洛沙韦</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-2"><strong>优势：</strong>疗效好，单次口服便捷，满足高端市场需求，现象已验证市场支付意愿。</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-1"><strong>价格：</strong>230-300元/盒，价格昂贵。</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mt-1"><strong>风险：</strong>供应紧张，面临国产新药的性价比竞争。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 产业链与核心公司 -->
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<section class="pt-12">
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<h2 class="text-3xl md:text-4xl font-bold text-center mb-8 bg-clip-text text-transparent bg-gradient-to-r from-sky-300 to-indigo-400">
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产业链与核心公司
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</h2>
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<div class="glass-card p-2 sm:p-4 overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="table table-custom w-full">
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<!-- Head -->
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<thead>
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<tr class="table-custom-header">
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<th class="w-1/4">股票名称</th>
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<th class="w-1/4">股票代码</th>
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<th class="w-2/4">核心逻辑</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<!-- 治疗 - 特效药 -->
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<tr class="table-custom-header">
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<th colspan="3" class="text-lg">治疗：抗病毒特效药</th>
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</tr>
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<tr class="hover">
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<td><span class="font-bold text-yellow-300">众生药业</span></td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002317" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300">002317</a></td>
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<td>特效药RNA抑制剂 | 昂拉地韦片 (已获批上市)</td>
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</tr>
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<!-- 治疗 - 奥司他韦 -->
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<tr class="table-custom-header">
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<th colspan="3" class="text-lg">治疗：抗病毒奥司他韦</th>
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</tr>
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<tr class="hover">
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<td>金石亚药</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300434" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300">300434</a></td>
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<td>奥司他韦仿制药、退烧药</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="hover">
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<td>南新制药</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688189" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300">688189</a></td>
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<td>奥司他韦仿制药</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="hover">
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<td>博瑞医药</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688166" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300">688166</a></td>
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<td>奥司他韦原料药/制剂</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="hover">
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<td>海正药业</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600267" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300">600267</a></td>
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<td>奥司他韦仿制药</td>
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</tr>
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<!-- 治疗 - 中成药 -->
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<tr class="table-custom-header">
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<th colspan="3" class="text-lg">治疗：中成药 & 对症药物</th>
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</tr>
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<tr class="hover">
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<td>以岭药业</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002603" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300">002603</a></td>
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<td>连花清瘟等中成药</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="hover">
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<td>香雪制药</td>
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<td></td>
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<td>抗病毒口服液等中成药</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="hover">
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<td>新华制药</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000756" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300">000756</a></td>
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<td>布洛芬等退烧药原料药</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="hover">
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<td>亨迪药业</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301211" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300">301211</a></td>
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<td>布洛芬原料药</td>
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</tr>
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<!-- 预防 - 疫苗 -->
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<tr class="table-custom-header">
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<th colspan="3" class="text-lg">预防：疫苗</th>
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</tr>
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<tr class="hover">
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<td>华兰生物</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002007" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300">002007</a></td>
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<td>流感疫苗龙头企业</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="hover">
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<td>金迪克</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688670" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300">688670</a></td>
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<td>专注于四价流感疫苗</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="hover">
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<td>百克生物</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688276" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300">688276</a></td>
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<td>鼻喷流感减毒活疫苗</td>
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</tr>
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<!-- 检验 - 诊断试剂 -->
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<tr class="table-custom-header">
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<th colspan="3" class="text-lg">检验：诊断试剂</th>
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</tr>
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<tr class="hover">
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<td>万孚生物</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300482" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300">300482</a></td>
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<td>甲乙流/支原体等POCT自测试剂</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="hover">
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<td>圣湘生物</td>
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<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688289" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300">688289</a></td>
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<td>呼吸道病原体核酸检测试剂</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="hover">
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<td>达安基因</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002030" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300">002030</a></td>
|
||
<td>甲型H1N1流感病毒核酸检测试剂盒</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover">
|
||
<td>迈克生物</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300463" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300">300463</a></td>
|
||
<td>体外诊断产品，覆盖传染病检测</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<footer class="text-center py-8 mt-12">
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-500">免责声明：本报告由AI合成数据生成，所有内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。</p>
|
||
</footer>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
// ECharts Initialization
|
||
var chartDom = document.getElementById('virus-chart');
|
||
var myChart = echarts.init(chartDom);
|
||
var option;
|
||
|
||
option = {
|
||
tooltip: {
|
||
trigger: 'item',
|
||
formatter: '{b} : {c}%'
|
||
},
|
||
legend: {
|
||
bottom: '5%',
|
||
left: 'center',
|
||
textStyle: {
|
||
color: '#ccc'
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
series: [
|
||
{
|
||
name: '病毒占比',
|
||
type: 'pie',
|
||
radius: ['50%', '70%'],
|
||
avoidLabelOverlap: false,
|
||
label: {
|
||
show: true,
|
||
position: 'center',
|
||
formatter: '99%+\n甲流',
|
||
fontSize: '20',
|
||
fontWeight: 'bold',
|
||
color: '#E0E0E0'
|
||
},
|
||
emphasis: {
|
||
label: {
|
||
show: true,
|
||
fontSize: '24',
|
||
fontWeight: 'bold'
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
labelLine: {
|
||
show: false
|
||
},
|
||
data: [
|
||
{ value: 99, name: '甲型流感', itemStyle: { color: new echarts.graphic.LinearGradient(0, 0, 0, 1, [{ offset: 0, color: '#2563eb' }, { offset: 1, color: '#38bdf8' }]) } },
|
||
{ value: 1, name: '其他流感', itemStyle: { color: '#4b5563' } }
|
||
]
|
||
}
|
||
]
|
||
};
|
||
|
||
option && myChart.setOption(option);
|
||
|
||
window.addEventListener('resize', myChart.resize);
|
||
</script>
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html> |