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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<title>制冷剂 - 深度行研报告</title>
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<style>
body {
font-family: 'Poppins', sans-serif;
background-color: #000010;
background-image:
radial-gradient(ellipse 80% 80% at 10% -20%, rgba(59, 130, 246, 0.15), transparent),
radial-gradient(ellipse 80% 80% at 90% 120%, rgba(139, 92, 246, 0.15), transparent);
color: #e0e0e0;
}
.font-space {
font-family: 'Space Grotesk', sans-serif;
}
.glass-card {
background: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.05);
-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
transition: all 0.3s ease;
}
.glass-card:hover {
transform: translateY(-5px) scale(1.01);
box-shadow: 0 0 40px rgba(59, 130, 246, 0.2), 0 0 60px rgba(139, 92, 246, 0.1);
border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.2);
}
.glow-text {
text-shadow: 0 0 8px rgba(192, 212, 255, 0.6), 0 0 12px rgba(59, 130, 246, 0.4);
}
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margin-bottom: 2rem;
text-align: center;
}
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display: grid;
grid-template-columns: repeat(6, 1fr);
gap: 1.5rem;
width: 100%;
}
.bento-item {
grid-column: span 2;
min-height: 250px;
}
.bento-item.col-span-3 { grid-column: span 3; }
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h2, h3, h4 {
font-family: 'Space Grotesk', sans-serif;
font-weight: 700;
color: #f0f0f0;
}
h3 {
background: -webkit-linear-gradient(45deg, #d8b4fe, #a5b4fc);
-webkit-background-clip: text;
-webkit-text-fill-color: transparent;
}
.table th, .table td {
border-bottom-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
}
.table th {
color: #a5b4fc;
}
</style>
</head>
<body class="min-h-screen p-4 sm:p-8 md:p-12">
<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto space-y-12">
<!-- Header -->
<header class="text-center space-y-4">
<h1 class="font-space text-5xl md:text-7xl font-bold glow-text leading-tight">
制冷剂 <span class="text-3xl md:text-5xl opacity-70">深度行研报告</span>
</h1>
<p class="font-light text-sm text-gray-400">
北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现
</p>
</header>
<!-- Insight Section -->
<section x-data="{}" class="space-y-8">
<h2 class="section-title">Concept Insight Analysis</h2>
<!-- Core Logic & Market Analysis Card -->
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 space-y-6">
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4">核心观点与市场逻辑</h3>
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
<div class="md:col-span-1 p-4 rounded-2xl bg-white/5 border border-white/10">
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-indigo-300 mb-2">核心观点摘要</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">
制冷剂概念正处于一个由全球环保协议和国家配额政策强力驱动的、为期数年的供给侧改革“超级周期”之中。核心驱动力在于二代制冷剂加速淘汰与三代制冷剂供给冻结形成的“剪刀差”,叠加四代制冷剂因专利和成本问题短期无法形成有效替代,共同造就了供给刚性、需求稳增的供需错配格局。当前,该概念已从政策预期阶段进入基本面驱动的业绩兑现阶段。
</p>
</div>
<div class="md:col-span-2 p-4 rounded-2xl bg-white/5 border border-white/10 space-y-4">
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-indigo-300 mb-2">核心驱动力:政策驱动的供给刚性</h4>
<ul class="text-sm text-gray-300 list-disc list-inside space-y-2">
<li><strong>双重供给压缩:</strong> 二代(HCFCs)加速淘汰2025年需淘汰基线值的67.5%;三代(HFCs)自2024年起冻结生产2029年开始削减。这从根本上锁定了行业供给天花板。</li>
<li><strong>替代真空期:</strong> 第四代制冷剂(HFOs)面临专利壁垒(美国专利2029年到期)和高昂成本(约12万元/吨 vs 三代 <2万元/)短期不具备商业替代可行性</li>
<li><strong>供需错配模型:</strong> 存量需求向三代转移 + 新增需求稳步增长 vs. 三代供给总量锁定 + 替代品缺位。龙头企业获得强大议价权。</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div class="p-4 rounded-2xl bg-white/5 border border-white/10 mt-6">
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-indigo-300 mb-2">预期差分析:政策的“调节器”角色</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">市场普遍将配额视为静态上限但2024年R32配额的两次增发表明生态环境部同时扮演“价格稳定器”角色可能存在“政策顶”。此外“内用配额可转出口出口不可逆转”的微观结构可能导致国内市场实际供应比名义配额更紧张是价格超预期上涨的重要原因。</p>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Catalysts & Timeline Card -->
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 space-y-6">
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4">关键事件与未来路径</h3>
<ul class="timeline timeline-snap-icon max-md:timeline-compact timeline-vertical">
<li>
<div class="timeline-middle">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-blue-400"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.06 0l4.001-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
</div>
<div class="timeline-start md:text-end mb-10">
<time class="font-mono italic">2024年1月</time>
<div class="text-lg font-black font-space text-indigo-300">供给收缩元年</div>
生态环境部首次核发三代制冷剂生产配额,供给端“紧箍咒”正式生效,行业进入供给冻结期。
</div>
<hr class="bg-blue-400/50"/>
</li>
<li>
<hr class="bg-blue-400/50"/>
<div class="timeline-middle">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-blue-300"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm.75-13a.75.75 0 00-1.5 0v5c0 .414.336.75.75.75h4a.75.75 0 000-1.5h-3.25V5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
</div>
<div class="timeline-end mb-10">
<time class="font-mono italic">2025年</time>
<div class="text-lg font-black font-space text-purple-300">景气加速与主升浪</div>
二代制冷剂配额大幅削减67.5%需求进一步挤向三代。价格进入主升浪内外贸共振主流产品突破5万元/吨。
</div>
<hr class="bg-purple-400/50"/>
</li>
<li>
<hr class="bg-purple-400/50"/>
<div class="timeline-middle">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-purple-300"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm.75-13a.75.75 0 00-1.5 0v5c0 .414.336.75.75.75h4a.75.75 0 000-1.5h-3.25V5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
</div>
<div class="timeline-start md:text-end mb-10">
<time class="font-mono italic">2029年</time>
<div class="text-lg font-black font-space text-fuchsia-300">首次削减冲击期</div>
中国三代制冷剂配额将首次削减10%,供给端出现明确“硬缺口”,可能引发新一轮价格大幅上涨。
</div>
<hr class="bg-fuchsia-400/50"/>
</li>
<li>
<hr class="bg-fuchsia-400/50"/>
<div class="timeline-middle">
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-fuchsia-300"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm.75-13a.75.75 0 00-1.5 0v5c0 .414.336.75.75.75h4a.75.75 0 000-1.5h-3.25V5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
</div>
<div class="timeline-end">
<time class="font-mono italic">后2029年</time>
<div class="text-lg font-black font-space text-rose-300">代际更替过渡期</div>
四代制冷剂核心专利陆续到期,国内企业有望规模化生产,成本下降。行业逻辑将从“供给为王”转向“成本与技术竞争”。
</div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Charts Section -->
<section>
<h2 class="section-title">Data Visualization</h2>
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-4 md:p-6 h-[400px]">
<div id="price-chart" class="w-full h-full"></div>
</div>
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-4 md:p-6 h-[400px]">
<div id="quota-chart" class="w-full h-full"></div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Bento Grid for Data Nuggets -->
<section class="space-y-8">
<h2 class="section-title">Key Data Points</h2>
<div class="bento-grid">
<div class="bento-item col-span-6 md:col-span-4 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
<h4 class="font-space text-xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-3">政策与配额</h4>
<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm text-gray-300 list-disc list-inside">
<li><strong>二代(HCFCs)削减:</strong> 2025年淘汰基线值的67.5%2026年R141b配额削减至0。</li>
<li><strong>三代(HFCs)配额:</strong> 2024年为配额期首年。2025年生产配额79.19万吨内用配额38.96万吨。</li>
<li><strong>配额增发:</strong> 2024/2025年均有针对R32的配额增发体现政策的“调节器”作用压制价格天花板。</li>
<li><strong>行业集中度:</strong> 巨化、三美、昊华等前六大企业占据三代生产配额总数的90.81%。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="bento-item col-span-6 md:col-span-2 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
<h4 class="font-space text-xl font-bold text-purple-300 mb-3">供需关系</h4>
<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm text-gray-300 list-disc list-inside">
<li><strong>供给端:</strong> 配额严格限制部分企业Q4安排检修联合挺价。</li>
<li><strong>需求端:</strong> 空调(占比~80%)、汽车、AI散热需求旺盛。家电以旧换新、空调出口高增提供支撑。</li>
<li><strong>库存:</strong> 2024年末市场库存处于历史低位为价格上涨提供有力支撑。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="bento-item col-span-6 md:col-span-2 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
<h4 class="font-space text-xl font-bold text-emerald-300 mb-3">盈利能力</h4>
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mb-2">价差持续扩大,企业盈利能力显著提升。</p>
<div class="text-sm space-y-2">
<p><strong>3月7日价差:</strong> R32达28,186元/吨, R134a达26,883元/吨。</p>
<p><strong>6月5日毛利:</strong> R32行业毛利达3.5万元/吨同比增超1万元。</p>
<p><strong>三美股份:</strong> 前三季度业绩预增175.83%~198.05%。</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="bento-item col-span-6 md:col-span-4 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
<h4 class="font-space text-xl font-bold text-amber-300 mb-3">出口情况 (内外贸)</h4>
<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm text-gray-300 list-disc list-inside">
<li><strong>内外价差:</strong> 早期内外价差较大至2025年Q1主要品种内外销价格已基本持平内外贸价格同频共振。</li>
<li><strong>配额结构:</strong> 内用配额可转出口,但出口配额不可逆转,加剧了国内市场的供应紧张。</li>
<li><strong>出口量:</strong> 2025年1-4月R32出口同比增长9.0%海外需求持续增长。R22/R134a出口同比下降。</li>
<li><strong>配额消化:</strong> 截至7月R32/R152a外用配额消化过半R125消化率较低(29.10%)。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="bento-item col-span-6 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
<h4 class="font-space text-xl font-bold text-rose-300 mb-3">行业展望与风险</h4>
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
<div>
<h5 class="font-bold text-rose-200 mb-2">积极展望</h5>
<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm text-gray-300 list-disc list-inside">
<li><strong>长周期景气:</strong> 25年起点更高格局更优内外贸价格有望继续共振上行。</li>
<li><strong>价格空间:</strong> “天花板仍很远”路演预测三代价格上限或达四代成本的80% (约9.6万元/吨)。</li>
<li><strong>龙头主导权:</strong> 国内龙头企业凭借配额优势,未来有望进一步取得全球主导权。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<h5 class="font-bold text-orange-300 mb-2">风险提示</h5>
<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm text-gray-300 list-disc list-inside">
<li><strong>政策风险:</strong> 最核心风险。若价格过快上涨,监管可能增发配额进行干预,形成“政策顶”。</li>
<li><strong>需求风险:</strong> 宏观经济波动导致下游空调、汽车等消费疲软。</li>
<li><strong>技术风险:</strong> 四代制冷剂专利壁垒松动或成本下降快于预期。</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Stocks Table Section -->
<section class="space-y-8">
<h2 class="section-title">Core Companies & Market Dynamics</h2>
<!-- Main Companies Table -->
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4">核心制冷剂配额生产商</h3>
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
<table class="table table-zebra">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>股票名称</th>
<th>推荐原因</th>
<th>核心配额占比</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600160" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-300">巨化股份 (600160)</a></td>
<td>绝对龙头,拥有无可匹敌的配额规模,是行业的“定盘星”和价格引领者。</td>
<td class="text-xs">R32: 40%, R125: 35%, R134a: 32%, R143a: 45%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603379" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-300">三美股份 (603379)</a></td>
<td>弹性黑马,配额位居第二,前瞻性布局四代制冷剂,兼具周期与成长属性。</td>
<td class="text-xs">R32: 12%, R125: 19%, R134a: 24%, R143a: 14%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>中化蓝天</td>
<td>公司是三代制冷剂配额生产商,拥有多种制冷剂的生产配额。</td>
<td class="text-xs">R125: 14%, R134a: 23%, R245fa: 29%, R41: 100%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=605020" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-300">永和股份 (605020)</a></td>
<td>特色玩家,在部分细分品种拥有较高配额,并向上游延伸布局萤石资源。</td>
<td class="text-xs">R143a: 32%, R152a: 33%, R227ea: 23%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600673" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-300">东阳光 (600673)</a></td>
<td>公司是三代制冷剂配额生产商,拥有多种制冷剂的生产配额。</td>
<td class="text-xs">R32: 11%, R125: 10%, R134a: 2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>东岳集团</td>
<td>公司是三代制冷剂配额生产商,拥有多种制冷剂的生产配额。</td>
<td class="text-xs">R32: 20%, R125: 9%, R134a: 3%, R152a: 22%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Rise Analysis Table -->
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4">涨幅异动分析</h3>
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
<table class="table">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>股票</th>
<th>涨幅 / 日期</th>
<th class="w-2/3">原因分析</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603086" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-300">先达股份 (603086)</a></td>
<td><span class="font-mono text-success">10.0%</span><br><span class="text-xs opacity-70">2025-07-07</span></td>
<td class="text-xs whitespace-normal">核心结论: 烯草酮价格暴涨+出口配额落地+氟化工制冷剂景气共振。公司拥有8000吨/年含氟中间体产能60%外售制冷剂原料R32/R125直接受益于制冷剂行业景气。</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688665" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-300">四方光电 (688665)</a></td>
<td><span class="font-mono text-success">18.92%</span><br><span class="text-xs opacity-70">2025-07-22</span></td>
<td class="text-xs whitespace-normal">核心驱动:超预期业绩预告(H1净利+103%)。业绩增长原因之一是抓住北美温室减排和低GWP新型制冷剂替代机遇以冷媒泄漏监测传感器为主的工业及安全业务收入延续高增长。</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300343" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-300">ST联创 (300343)</a></td>
<td><span class="font-mono text-success">5.78%</span><br><span class="text-xs opacity-70">2025-08-15</span></td>
<td class="text-xs whitespace-normal">业绩扭亏为盈。公司在投资者互动平台披露其在第四代制冷剂领域拥有HFO-1234yf等相关专利技术现有产能1.2万吨并规划扩大至5万吨产品已进入美的、格力供应链。</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600336" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-blue-300">澳柯玛 (600336)</a></td>
<td><span class="font-mono text-success">5.62%</span><br><span class="text-xs opacity-70">2025-11-14</span></td>
<td class="text-xs whitespace-normal">上涨为预期驱动行情,与半导体资产注入预期相关。但作为制冷家电企业,市场对制冷剂配额等行业新闻会激活整个产业链热度,澳柯玛作为知名标的易受资金关注。</td>
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