379 lines
27 KiB
HTML
379 lines
27 KiB
HTML
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<title>深度行研：新凯来示波器概念</title>
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<header class="text-center mb-12">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold tracking-wider highlight-cyan">概念深度解析：新凯来示波器</h1>
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<p class="mt-4 text-lg text-gray-400">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 呈现</p>
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<div class="mt-2 text-xs text-gray-500 glass-card inline-block px-4 py-2">本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎</div>
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</header>
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<!-- Bento Grid Section -->
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<!-- Core View Summary -->
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<div class="col-span-6 md:col-span-4 row-span-2 glass-card p-6 flex flex-col justify-center">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4">核心观点摘要</h2>
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<p class="text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">
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“新凯来示波器”概念的本质，是在“国产替代”和“科技自强”的国家战略背景下，一次高端科学仪器领域“<span class="font-bold highlight-cyan">0到1</span>”的技术突破事件。
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当前，该概念正处于由事件驱动的强主题炒作阶段，其核心驱动力是产品本身展现出的<span class="font-bold highlight-magenta">世界级技术指标</span>与强大的<span class="font-bold highlight-magenta">政策背书</span>。
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未来潜力巨大，但能否转化为持续的基本面改善，取决于后续的商业化放量和产业链生态的构建。
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</p>
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</div>
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<!-- Product Specs -->
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<div class="col-span-6 md:col-span-2 row-span-2 glass-card p-6 flex flex-col justify-center">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4">产品核心指标</h2>
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<ul class="space-y-3">
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<li><span class="font-bold highlight-cyan text-xl">90 GHz</span><span class="ml-2 text-gray-400">带宽</span></li>
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<li><span class="font-bold highlight-cyan text-xl">200 GSa/s</span><span class="ml-2 text-gray-400">采样率</span></li>
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<li><span class="font-bold highlight-cyan text-xl">4 Gpts</span><span class="ml-2 text-gray-400">存储深度</span></li>
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<li class="pt-2"><span class="badge badge-outline border-cyan-400 text-cyan-400">全球首个超高速智能示波器</span></li>
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<li><span class="badge badge-outline border-cyan-400 text-cyan-400">全球首个全面屏示波器</span></li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<!-- Market Status -->
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<div class="col-span-6 md:col-span-3 glass-card p-6 flex flex-col items-center justify-center text-center">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-2">市场地位</h3>
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<p class="text-3xl font-bold highlight-cyan">全国第一，全球第二</p>
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<p class="text-gray-400 mt-1">直接对标国际顶尖产品，解决高端电子测量仪器“卡脖子”问题。</p>
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</div>
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<!-- Key Customers -->
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<div class="col-span-6 md:col-span-3 glass-card p-6 flex flex-col items-center justify-center text-center">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-2">首批标杆客户</h3>
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<div class="flex space-x-8 mt-2">
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<span class="text-2xl font-semibold text-gray-200">华为</span>
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<span class="text-2xl font-semibold text-gray-200">上海交通大学</span>
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</div>
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<p class="text-gray-400 mt-1">已实现商用，打消市场“PPT产品”疑虑。</p>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Event Timeline Section -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4">概念事件脉络</h2>
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<div id="timeline-chart" class="w-full h-80"></div>
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</section>
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<!-- Detailed Analysis Section -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8 space-y-8">
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<article>
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4">概念核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h2>
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<div class="space-y-4 text-gray-300 leading-loose">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold highlight-cyan mt-4">核心驱动力</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 pl-4">
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<li><strong class="text-white">技术突破的稀缺性：</strong> 示波器被誉为“电子工程师之眼”，长期以来>4GHz高端市场由海外巨头垄断。新凯来子公司万里眼发布的90GHz带宽产品，实现了跨越式技术突破，直接进入全球第一梯队。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">强烈的政策驱动：</strong> 国务院国资委已将“高端示波器”列入2025年必须实现自主可控的16类核心仪器清单，为其商业化应用提供了确定性保障。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">下游应用需求拉动：</strong> 广泛应用于半导体（支撑3nm/5nm研发）、6G通信、光通信、智能驾驶等前沿领域，形成刚性需求拉动。</li>
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</ul>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold highlight-cyan mt-4">预期差分析：宏大叙事与信息鸿沟</h3>
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<div class="alert bg-yellow-900 bg-opacity-30 border-yellow-500 text-yellow-300">
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<div>
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="stroke-current flex-shrink-0 h-6 w-6" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M12 9v2m0 4h.01m-6.938 4h13.856c1.54 0 2.502-1.667 1.732-3L13.732 4c-.77-1.333-2.694-1.333-3.464 0L3.34 16c-.77 1.333.192 3 1.732 3z" /></svg>
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<span><strong class="font-bold">核心风险 - 信息不对称：</strong> 市场热度极高，但公司官方沟通渠道（路演、研报）在此事件前几乎<strong class="font-bold">零披露</strong>。路演数据中未找到任何相关信息，研报覆盖也严重滞后。这种“官方静默”与“市场亢奋”的巨大反差是当前最大的风险点与疑点。</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</article>
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<article>
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4">关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 text-gray-300">
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold highlight-cyan mb-2">近期催化剂 (3-6个月)</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2">
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<li>公布来自华为、上海交大等客户的<strong class="text-white">具体订单金额与数量</strong>。</li>
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<li>被列入国家重大科研设备<strong class="text-white">采购名录</strong>。</li>
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<li>权威第三方出具的与竞品<strong class="text-white">横向对比评测报告</strong>。</li>
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<li>宣布与更多下游龙头企业建立<strong class="text-white">战略合作</strong>。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold highlight-cyan mb-2">长期发展路径</h3>
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<ol class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-2">
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<li><strong class="text-white">进口替代阶段：</strong> 抢占国内高校、科研院所及国企市场份额。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">平台化扩张阶段：</strong> 带动其他“量检测设备”进入市场。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">生态构建阶段：</strong> 开发应用软件，与周边设备商合作。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">国际化竞争阶段：</strong> 凭借性价比优势拓展海外市场。</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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</div>
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</article>
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<article>
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
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<div class="space-y-4 text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">
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<ul class="list-none space-y-3">
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<li class="flex items-start"><span class="highlight-magenta font-bold mr-2">▶</span><div><strong class="text-white">技术风险：</strong>90GHz超高频下，实验室成功不等于稳定量产，维持高良率和产品一致性是巨大挑战。</div></li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><span class="highlight-magenta font-bold mr-2">▶</span><div><strong class="text-white">商业化风险：</strong>海外巨头拥有海量的应用软件、成熟的探头系列和数十年的应用数据积累，生态壁垒极高，新用户转换成本巨大。</div></li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><span class="highlight-magenta font-bold mr-2">▶</span><div><strong class="text-white">竞争风险：</strong>国际巨头可能采取降价、技术封锁、专利诉讼等手段进行反制。国内也可能引来更多企业涌入赛道。</div></li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><span class="highlight-magenta font-bold mr-2">▶</span><div><strong class="text-white">信息交叉验证风险：</strong>当前所有信息均来自新闻发布会和市场解读，缺乏上市公司层面的官方确认，路演与新闻数据的巨大反差是最大风险警示。</div></li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</article>
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<article>
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4">综合结论与投资启示</h2>
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<div class="space-y-4 text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">
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<p>“新凯来示波器”概念正处于一个由重大技术突破引爆的<strong class="text-white">强主题投资阶段</strong>。其背后是坚实的国产替代逻辑和国家战略支持，具备从主题走向基本面的巨大潜力。然而，当前市场情绪浓厚，股价表现已部分透支未来预期，且核心信息存在缺失，使其<strong class="text-white">短期投机色彩浓厚，长期价值兑现尚需时间验证</strong>。</p>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold highlight-cyan mt-4">最具投资价值的细分环节</h3>
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<ul class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-2 pl-4">
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<li><strong class="text-white">下游配套服务 (确定性最高)：</strong> 以<strong class="highlight-cyan">广电计量</strong>为代表的计量检测服务，是“卖水者”逻辑。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">上游核心零部件 (弹性最大)：</strong> 以<strong class="highlight-cyan">成都华微</strong>为代表的ADC芯片供应商，一旦确认进入供应链，业绩弹性巨大。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">现有仪器厂商 (逻辑需重估)：</strong> <strong class="highlight-cyan">普源精电</strong>和<strong class="highlight-cyan">鼎阳科技</strong>，短期是竞争受损方，长期看整个国产化赛道被激活，需重新评估。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</article>
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</section>
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<!-- Stock Tables Section -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold mb-6 text-center">产业链核心公司梳理</h2>
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 highlight-cyan">核心标的列表</h3>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="table w-full table-custom">
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<thead>
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<tr>
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<th>股票名称</th>
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<th>股票代码</th>
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<th>关联原因</th>
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<th>标签</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr><td>普源精电</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688337" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">688337</a></td><td>示波器24年营收A股第一，全球第八，全球市占率1.1%，公司高端数字示波器产品(带宽≥2GHz)占2024年全年数字示波器销售收入的比例达32.92%</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">产品</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td>鼎阳科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688112" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">688112</a></td><td>示波器市占率A股第二，全球市占率0.4%，拥有最高带宽达8GHz的12-bit高分辨率数字示波器</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">产品</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td>优利德</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688628" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">688628</a></td><td>示波器产品线全面升级到12位高分辨率示波器，实现关键零部件自主可控</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">产品</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td>天银机电</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300342" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">300342</a></td><td>子公司华清瑞达具备研制示波器等仪器的能力</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">产品</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td>成都华微</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688709" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">688709</a></td><td>公司高速高精度ADC产品指标可满足于高速示波器、半导体制造等高端仪器设备</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">产品</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td>大众公用</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600635" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">600635</a></td><td>通过持有深圳市创新投资集团（深创投）约13.93%的股权，间接参股深圳万里眼技术有限公司</td><td><div class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">间接参股</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td>深圳能源</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000027" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">000027</a></td><td>通过持有深创投5.0305%股权，间接参股深圳万里眼技术有限公司</td><td><div class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">间接参股</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td>粤电力A</td><td>-</td><td>参股3.67%投资深创投间接参股深圳万里眼技术有限公司</td><td><div class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">间接参股</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>广深铁路</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=601333" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">601333</a></td><td>参股1.40%投资深创投间接参股深圳万里眼技术有限公司</td><td><div class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">间接参股</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>中兴通讯</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000063" target="_blank" class="link link-hover">000063</a></td><td>参股深创投间接参股深圳万里眼技术有限公司</td><td><div class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">间接参股</div></td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="divider my-10">涨幅异动分析</div>
|
||
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 highlight-cyan">相关个股异动解析</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table w-full table-custom">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票</th>
|
||
<th>日期</th>
|
||
<th>涨幅</th>
|
||
<th class="w-2/3">异动原因解析</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td>广电计量 (002967)</td><td>2025-10-15</td><td><span class="text-red-400 font-bold">+10.02%</span></td><td class="text-sm leading-relaxed"><div class="prose prose-sm text-gray-300"><strong>核心结论:</strong> “国产90GHz示波器0→1突破→公司独享强制计量订单→三季报业绩拐点→国资委核心仪器自主可控清单”四重共振。<br><strong>驱动逻辑:</strong> 为新凯来提供全生命周期计量检测，每台强制校准费8–10万元；高端示波器被列入自主可控清单，政策红利直接映射；三季报业绩拐点已现。</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>新莱应材 (300260)</td><td>2025-10-13</td><td><span class="text-red-400 font-bold">+20.00%</span></td><td class="text-sm leading-relaxed"><div class="prose prose-sm text-gray-300"><strong>核心结论:</strong> “新凯来6亿元订单收入确认+湾芯展政策催化+中美半导体反制”三因子共振。<br><strong>驱动逻辑:</strong> 全年预计6亿元新凯来采购额，为已批量供货的唯一公告标的；向国产光刻机批量交付高洁净真空/气体系统零部件。</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>路维光电 (688401)</td><td>2025-10-13</td><td><span class="text-red-400 font-bold">+20.00%</span></td><td class="text-sm leading-relaxed"><div class="prose prose-sm text-gray-300"><strong>核心结论:</strong> 三季报利润翻倍+官方确认供货新凯来+成都20亿元高端掩膜版产线12月试产，三事件集中兑现。<br><strong>驱动逻辑:</strong> A股唯一能量产90~28nm掩膜版且通过新凯来验证的标的；三季报净利同比+105%~+116%；成都新产能将支撑利润翻倍。</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>利和兴 (301013)</td><td>2025-10-13</td><td><span class="text-red-400 font-bold">+20.01%</span></td><td class="text-sm leading-relaxed"><div class="prose prose-sm text-gray-300"><strong>核心结论:</strong> 因“新凯来国产5nm光刻机检测设备唯一合格供应商”身份被资金提前卡位。<br><strong>驱动逻辑:</strong> 已中标7-8亿元检测设备订单，成为名单内“检测设备”唯一标的，卡位稀缺。</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>万凯新材 (301216)</td><td>2025-10-15</td><td><span class="text-red-400 font-bold">+8.39%</span></td><td class="text-sm leading-relaxed"><div class="prose prose-sm text-gray-300"><strong>核心结论:</strong> 情绪性炒作，被市场纳入“新凯来产业链概念股”。<br><strong>驱动逻辑:</strong> 基于“新凯来”重大突破引发的产业链价值重估想象，市场押注其为“潜在供应商”。核心逻辑未经公司证实，风险较高。</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>奥普光电 (002338)</td><td>2025-10-13</td><td><span class="text-red-400 font-bold">+9.99%</span></td><td class="text-sm leading-relaxed"><div class="prose prose-sm text-gray-300"><strong>核心结论:</strong> “新凯来—长光集智—国产90 nm光刻机光学系统”逻辑链被验证，公司作为长光集智35%唯一上市载体，资金集中映射。<br><strong>驱动逻辑:</strong> A股最稀缺光刻机光学系统标的。</div></td></tr>
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</tbody>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-500">© 2025 北京价值前沿科技有限公司. All Rights Reserved.</p>
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<p class="text-xs text-gray-600 mt-1">本报告由AI投研模型生成，数据来源：公开新闻、路演、研报及市场数据。报告内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。</p>
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