461 lines
28 KiB
HTML
461 lines
28 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>国七排放标准 - 深度研究报告</title>
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<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.11.1/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<script defer src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js"></script>
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<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
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<style>
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@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Noto+Sans+SC:wght@300;400;500;700&display=swap');
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body {
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font-family: 'Noto Sans SC', sans-serif;
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background-color: #0a0a0f;
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background-image:
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radial-gradient(circle at 25% 30%, rgba(0, 120, 255, 0.1) 0%, transparent 40%),
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radial-gradient(circle at 75% 70%, rgba(180, 50, 255, 0.1) 0%, transparent 40%);
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color: #e0e0e0;
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backdrop-filter: blur(16px);
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display: grid;
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gap: 1rem;
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grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fit, minmax(300px, 1fr));
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linear-gradient(#fff 0 0) content-box,
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linear-gradient(#fff 0 0);
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mask-composite: exclude;
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.section-title {
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font-size: 2.5rem;
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font-weight: 700;
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-webkit-background-clip: text;
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-webkit-text-fill-color: transparent;
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padding-bottom: 0.5rem;
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border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
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margin-bottom: 2rem;
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.tab {
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transition: all 0.3s ease;
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background-color: rgba(0, 190, 255, 0.2) !important;
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border-bottom: 2px solid #00c6ff;
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color: #ffffff;
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}
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.table thead th {
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background-color: rgba(30, 30, 50, 0.6);
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color: #a0a0c0;
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font-weight: bold;
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.table tbody tr {
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transition: background-color 0.2s ease;
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.table tbody tr:hover {
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background-color: rgba(40, 40, 60, 0.8);
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="min-h-screen">
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
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<header class="text-center mb-12">
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<h1 class="text-5xl md:text-7xl font-bold tracking-tighter" style="background: -webkit-linear-gradient(45deg, #00c6ff, #ffffff, #9f5fef); -webkit-background-clip: text; -webkit-text-fill-color: transparent;">
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国七排放标准
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</h1>
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<p class="mt-4 text-lg text-gray-400">深度研究报告</p>
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<p class="mt-2 text-sm text-gray-500">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 呈现</p>
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</header>
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<main class="space-y-16">
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<!-- Section 1: 核心观点与市场认知 -->
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<section>
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<h2 class="section-title">概念洞察：核心逻辑与市场认知</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<div class="lg:col-span-3 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 glow-border">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-3">核心观点摘要</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300">
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国七排放标准是一个由顶层环保政策驱动、具备千亿级市场潜力的确定性主题，目前处于政策制定和市场预期构建的关键阶段。其核心驱动力是强制性的法规升级，将通过增加高价值量的尾气后处理零部件，为产业链带来结构性机遇。未来潜力巨大，但兑现节奏与政策最终稿的细节高度相关，存在一定的不确定性。
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</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-purple-300 mb-2">核心驱动力：政策强制</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">
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根本逻辑是 <strong class="text-white">政策强制驱动（Policy-Mandated Driver）</strong>。与市场需求或技术创新驱动不同，国七的推进完全依赖于国家环保法规。此驱动力具有<strong class="text-white">不可逆、高确定性</strong>的特点，通过行政手段创造全新的、巨大的增量市场。
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</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-purple-300 mb-2">市场热度与情绪</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">
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当前市场关注度高，整体情绪<strong class="text-white">乐观且积极</strong>。“近千亿市场增量”等标题频繁出现，营造强烈市场预期。多家券商已发布报告推荐受益标的，显示机构看好其前景。
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</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-purple-300 mb-2">预期差分析</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm text-gray-400 list-disc list-inside">
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<li><strong class="text-white">实施节奏：</strong>市场可能期待“大爆发”，但实际可能是<strong class="text-white">渐进式释放</strong>（如2027-2030分比例实施）。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">管理思路：</strong>市场关注硬件升级，但对<strong class="text-white">“企业平均排放强度”</strong>的新规影响认识不足，这可能加速车企向NEV转型。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">成本传导：</strong>单车数千至上万元的成本增加，向消费端传导存在难度，或将抑制部分销量。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Section 2: 关键时间轴与市场空间 -->
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<section>
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<h2 class="section-title">关键节点与市场增量</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<!-- Timeline -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 glow-border">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-4">关键时间轴（预期）</h3>
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<ul class="steps steps-vertical">
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<li class="step step-primary">
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<div class="text-left ml-4">
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<p class="font-bold">2024年初：政策启动</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">生态环境部正式启动国七标准制定工作。</p>
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</div>
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</li>
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<li class="step step-primary">
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<div class="text-left ml-4">
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<p class="font-bold">2025年：征求意见稿</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">预计落地正式征求意见稿，明确技术细节与时间表，是近期最重要催化剂。</p>
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</div>
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</li>
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<li class="step">
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<div class="text-left ml-4">
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<p class="font-bold">2026-2027年：催化窗口</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">路演数据提及，可能成为行业下一阶段催化剂。</p>
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</div>
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</li>
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<li class="step">
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<div class="text-left ml-4">
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<p class="font-bold">2027-2030年：业绩兑现期</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">标准开始分阶段实施，相关公司收入和利润开始快速增长。</p>
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</div>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<!-- Market Size Chart -->
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 flex flex-col min-h-[400px]">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-2">市场空间预测（亿元）</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-4">基于华源汽车预测，假设产品年降5%。</p>
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<div id="marketSpaceChart" class="flex-grow"></div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Section 3: 技术变革与成本影响 (Bento Grid) -->
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<section>
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<h2 class="section-title">技术变革与成本影响</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:col-span-2 lg:col-span-1">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-purple-300 mb-3">管理思路变化</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">由以往的 <strong class="text-white">单车型排放限制</strong>，转变为 <strong class="text-white">单车型限制 + 企业平均排放强度</strong> 的双管理模式，统筹污染物与温室气体排放。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 lg:col-span-2">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-purple-300 mb-3">核心技术标准变化</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm text-gray-400 list-disc list-inside">
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<li><strong class="text-white">限值趋严：</strong>氮氧化物（NOx）和颗粒物（PM）限值大幅下降。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">工况监管：</strong>冷启动等低温工况监管趋严，混动车影响显著。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">诊断升级：</strong>柴油车OBD系统升级为OBM，检测频率、精度要求提升。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">技术路线：</strong>或将增加 <strong class="text-white">EHC（电子加热催化器）</strong>和<strong class="text-white">紧耦合SCR (ccSCR)</strong> 等环节。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 lg:col-span-3">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-purple-300 mb-3">单车升级成本与增量部件</h3>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="table table-sm">
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<thead>
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<tr>
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<th>车型</th>
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<th>增量部件</th>
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<th>单车升级成本估算</th>
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<th>数据来源</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr>
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<td class="font-bold">汽油车 (含混动)</td>
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<td>EHC、氮氧传感器替换氧传感器、TWC增配、GPF等</td>
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<td class="text-cyan-400">约 3,000 - 4,000 元</td>
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<td>华源汽车 / 艾可蓝</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="font-bold">中轻型柴油车</td>
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<td rowspan="2">新增PM传感器、ccSCR系统、OBM系统、DPF、DOC等</td>
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<td class="text-cyan-400">约 9,000 元</td>
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<td>华源汽车</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="font-bold">重型柴油车</td>
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<td class="text-cyan-400">约 10,000 - 13,000 元</td>
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<td>艾可蓝 / 华源汽车</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Section 4: 产业链与核心公司 -->
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<section>
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<h2 class="section-title">产业链图谱与核心公司</h2>
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<div class="space-y-6">
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-4">产业链图谱</h3>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-4 text-center">
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<div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-gray-800 rounded-xl h-full">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-purple-300">上游：核心材料</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-2">蜂窝陶瓷载体、催化剂、传感器芯片等。<br>代表公司：奥福科技、中自科技</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-gray-800 rounded-xl h-full">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-purple-300">中游：关键零部件/系统</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-2">尾气后处理系统总成、各类传感器、EHC、ccSCR等。<br>代表公司：威孚高科、艾可蓝、凯龙高科、四方光电</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-gray-800 rounded-xl h-full">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-purple-300">下游及相关服务</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mt-2">整车制造商(OEM)、车辆检测设备与服务。<br>代表公司：各大车企、安车检测</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-purple-300 mb-2">高弹性“纯粹”标的：艾可蓝</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">业务高度聚焦于尾气后处理，新闻稿明确提及深度参与国七项目研发，定位为“迈向国七技术新周期的拐点之年”，有望展现更高业绩弹性。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-purple-300 mb-2">传感器核心供应商：四方光电</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">PM传感器全球市占率第一，氮氧传感器已批量供货。国七对传感器（新增PM、升级氮氧）的需求是确定性增量，逻辑清晰，受益路径直接。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-purple-300 mb-2">系统集成领导者：威孚高科 / 凯龙高科</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">国六时代赢家，具备强大客户基础和系统集成能力，是国七市场主要参与者。凯龙高科在商用车SCR领域市占率领先。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6">
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<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-purple-300 mb-2">上游材料关键卡位：奥福科技</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">国内蜂窝陶瓷载体的核心供应商。国七对载体性能要求更严苛，利好技术领先的头部企业，扮演产业链上游“卖铲人”角色。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Section 5: 潜在风险 -->
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<section>
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<h2 class="section-title">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-4">
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<div class="card-body items-center text-center">
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<h3 class="card-title text-red-400">技术风险</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">EHC、ccSCR等新技术在低温工况下的可靠性、耐久性及成本控制，仍需大规模商业化验证。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-4">
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<div class="card-body items-center text-center">
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<h3 class="card-title text-red-400">商业化风险</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">高昂的单车成本可能抑制换购需求；过高的合规成本可能加速燃油车被新能源汽车替代，是长期颠覆性风险。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-4">
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<div class="card-body items-center text-center">
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<h3 class="card-title text-red-400">政策与竞争风险</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">政策可能因经济压力而延迟或标准降级；千亿市场必将引来激烈竞争，或导致价格战，侵蚀利润率。</p>
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</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Section 6: 投资结论与相关标的 -->
|
||
<section>
|
||
<h2 class="section-title">投资结论与相关标的</h2>
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 mb-8 glow-border">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-3">综合结论与投资启示</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-300 mb-4">
|
||
“国七排放标准”概念已度过纯粹的主题炒作阶段，进入由明确政策预期驱动的 <strong class="text-white">“预备”基本面阶段</strong>。其背后的逻辑坚实，市场空间广阔，产业链受益路径清晰。真正的业绩兑现尚需等待政策正式实施，当前投资的核心是博弈政策落地和抢占有利身位的公司。
|
||
</p>
|
||
<div class="bg-gray-800 p-4 rounded-xl">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-purple-300 mb-2">最具投资价值的细分环节：</h4>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside text-gray-400 text-sm space-y-1">
|
||
<li><strong class="text-white">新增核心零部件：</strong>最具弹性的环节，特别是传感器（PM、氮氧）和电加热催化器（EHC），是从“0到1”或价值量大幅提升的领域。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-white">高度聚焦的系统集成商：</strong>相比业务庞杂的巨头，业务更纯粹、深度绑定国七研发的公司（如艾可蓝），在业绩弹性上可能更具吸引力。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-3xl p-4">
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑 / 关联原因</th>
|
||
<th>所属环节</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td>威孚高科</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000581" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">000581</a></td><td>汽车尾气后处理系统龙头，与国内自主品牌广泛合作。</td><td class="font-semibold text-purple-300">尾气后处理系统</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>艾可蓝</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300816" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">300816</a></td><td>深度参与国七项目研发，旨在推动技术升级应对国七标准，业务聚焦度高。</td><td class="font-semibold text-purple-300">尾气后处理系统</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>凯龙高科</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300912" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">300912</a></td><td>商用车SCR后处理产品市场占有率排名第一，客户基础稳固。</td><td class="font-semibold text-purple-300">尾气后处理系统</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>云意电气</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300304" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">300304</a></td><td>子公司芯源诚达致力于氮氧传感器的研产销，适用于柴油商用车。</td><td class="font-semibold text-purple-300">尾气后处理系统</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>奥福科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688021" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">688021</a></td><td>国七对蜂窝陶瓷载体性能要求更苛刻，公司产品可用于SCR载体和DPF。</td><td class="font-semibold text-purple-300">尾气后处理系统</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>中自科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688737" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">688737</a></td><td>尾气处理催化剂主要国产厂商之一，直接受益于催化剂需求增长。</td><td class="font-semibold text-purple-300">尾气后处理系统</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>四方光电</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688665" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">688665</a></td><td>PM传感器全球市占率第一，氮氧传感器已批量供货，直接受益于传感器增量。</td><td class="font-semibold text-cyan-300">监测与传感器</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>安车检测</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300572" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">300572</a></td><td>国七驱动检测站设备更新换代，公司布局物联网OBD系统。</td><td class="font-semibold text-cyan-300">监测与传感器</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>ST云动</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000903" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">000903</a></td><td>森世泰生产的陶瓷芯片实现国产替代，其氮氧传感器已大批量装机。</td><td class="font-semibold text-cyan-300">监测与传感器</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>保隆科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603197" target="_blank" class="link link-hover link-primary">603197</a></td><td>国六标准中压力传感器和EGR管件业务快速成长，有望延续至国七。</td><td class="font-semibold text-cyan-300">监测与传感器</td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
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</table>
|
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</div>
|
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</section>
|
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</main>
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<footer class="text-center mt-16 pt-8 border-t border-gray-800">
|
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-500">免责声明：本报告为AI合成数据，所有内容仅供研究和参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。</p>
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<p class="text-xs text-gray-600 mt-2">© 2024 北京价值前沿科技有限公司. All Rights Reserved.</p>
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