725 lines
43 KiB
HTML
725 lines
43 KiB
HTML
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<title>深度研报: 农药杀虫剂-氯虫苯甲酰胺</title>
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:root {
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<body class="min-h-screen text-gray-300">
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<div class="bg-deep-space"></div>
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 lg:p-8">
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<!-- Header Section -->
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<header class="text-center mb-12 p-6 glass-card">
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<h1 class="text-3xl lg:text-5xl font-bold glow-text mb-4">
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深度研报: 农药杀虫剂-氯虫苯甲酰胺
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</h1>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 呈现</p>
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<p class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-2">本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。</p>
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</header>
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<!-- Bento Grid Layout -->
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<main class="bento-grid">
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<!-- Core Insight -->
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<div class="grid-span-12 glass-card p-6">
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<h2 class="section-title">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M13 10V3L4 14h7v7l9-11h-7z" /></svg>
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核心观点：供给侧突变引爆的价格反转与产业链重构
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</h2>
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<p class="text-gray-400">
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氯虫苯甲酰胺概念本质上是一次由<strong>重大黑天鹅事件</strong>（友道化学爆炸）引爆的、在<strong>历史价格底部</strong>和<strong>需求释放期</strong>发生的<strong>强力供给侧冲击</strong>。其核心驱动力在于全球最大单一产能的永久性退出预期，导致行业格局重塑和产品价格的剧烈反转。未来潜力取决于存量厂商的产能释放速度、上游核心中间体的供应瓶颈能否突破，以及价格上涨后与替代品的经济性博弈。
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</p>
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</div>
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<!-- Concept Event Timeline -->
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<div class="grid-span-12 lg:grid-span-8 glass-card p-6">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl mb-4 text-white">概念事件脉络</h3>
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<ul class="timeline timeline-snap-icon max-md:timeline-compact timeline-vertical">
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<li>
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<div class="timeline-middle">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm-.75-4.75a.75.75 0 001.5 0V8.66l1.95 2.1a.75.75 0 101.1-1.02l-3.25-3.5a.75.75 0 00-1.1 0L6.2 9.74a.75.75 0 101.1 1.02l1.95-2.1v4.59z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-end timeline-box glass-card !bg-opacity-70 mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic text-sm">背景期 (2022.08 - 2025.05)</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black text-white">专利到期与价格战</div>
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核心化合物专利到期，市场转为激烈竞争。价格从百万级暴跌至21-24万元/吨成本线，刺激全球需求从~6000吨增至1.2万吨以上。
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</div>
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<hr/>
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</li>
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<li>
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<hr/>
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<div class="timeline-middle">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-red-400"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zM8.28 7.22a.75.75 0 00-1.06 1.06L8.94 10l-1.72 1.72a.75.75 0 101.06 1.06L10 11.06l1.72 1.72a.75.75 0 101.06-1.06L11.06 10l1.72-1.72a.75.75 0 00-1.06-1.06L10 8.94 8.28 7.22z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-start md:text-end timeline-box glass-card !bg-opacity-70 mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic text-sm">催化事件 (2025.05.27)</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black text-error">供给侧黑天鹅</div>
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全球最大产能商山东友道化学（1.1万吨/年，占国内41%）发生重大爆炸事故，全球约40%名义产能瞬间停摆，且复产预期极低。
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</div>
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<hr/>
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</li>
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<li>
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<hr/>
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<div class="timeline-middle">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-cyan-400"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.137-.089l4-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-end timeline-box glass-card !bg-opacity-70">
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<time class="font-mono italic text-sm">发酵期 (2025.05.28 - 至今)</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black glow-text">价格飙升与产业链重构</div>
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厂家封盘惜售，ST红太阳、辉隆股份相继提价至30万、32万/吨。核心中间体K胺价格从13万/吨暴涨至27万/吨以上，产业链利润向上游转移，监管预期收紧。
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</div>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<!-- Price Chart -->
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<div class="grid-span-12 lg:grid-span-4 glass-card p-6 flex flex-col">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl mb-4 text-white">价格走势（万元/吨）</h3>
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<div id="priceChart" class="flex-grow w-full h-64 lg:h-full"></div>
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</div>
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<!-- Core Logic -->
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<div class="grid-span-12 bento-grid">
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<div class="grid-span-12 lg:grid-span-3 glass-card p-4">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg mb-2 text-cyan-300">供给端剧烈收缩</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">友道化学1.1万吨产能“永久性退出”预期，直接改变全球供需平衡表。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="grid-span-12 lg:grid-span-3 glass-card p-4">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg mb-2 text-cyan-300">产业链瓶颈放大</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">冲击高危硝化工艺核心中间体K胺供应，利润向上游转移，拥有配套能力者获超额收益。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="grid-span-12 lg:grid-span-3 glass-card p-4">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg mb-2 text-cyan-300">价格与库存低位</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">事发前价格处历史底部（22.5万/吨），行业渠道库存低，放大供给冲击弹性。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="grid-span-12 lg:grid-span-3 glass-card p-4">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg mb-2 text-cyan-300">政策监管催化</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">安全事故将引发对高危工艺的严格审查，或限制开工并提高新产能门槛，拉长短缺周期。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Expectation Gaps -->
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<div class="grid-span-12 glass-card p-6">
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<h2 class="section-title">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M9.663 17h4.673M12 3v1m6.364 1.636l-.707.707M21 12h-1M4 12H3m3.343-5.657l-.707-.707m2.828 9.9a5 5 0 117.072 0l-.548.547A3.374 3.374 0 0014 18.469V19a2 2 0 11-4 0v-.531c0-.895-.356-1.754-.988-2.386l-.548-.547z" /></svg>
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预期差分析：市场认知与深层逻辑
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</h2>
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<div class="space-y-4 text-gray-300">
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<p><strong>1. 产能 vs. 有效产量:</strong> 市场关注名义产能，但核心制约在于中间体供应。例如利尔化学虽有5000吨产能，但专家称因无中间体配套而未正常出货。<strong>拥有产能 ≠ 立即兑现利润。</strong></p>
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<p><strong>2. 利润分配预期差:</strong> 市场初步聚焦原药生产商，但深层逻辑是<strong>利润可能主要被上游核心中间体(K胺)攫取</strong>。无中间体配套的企业，利润弹性或远低于市场预期。</p>
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<p><strong>3. 替代品效应的滞后性:</strong> 短期内无完美替代品，但若价格持续高位（如50万/吨以上），将削弱其对阿维菌素、茚虫威等的性价比优势，可能导致长期需求转移。</p>
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<p><strong>4. 政策影响的双刃剑:</strong> 市场看好政策收紧利好存量玩家，但忽略了严格审查也可能导致<strong>现有合规产能的开工率受限</strong>，影响短期业绩兑现。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Future Path & Capacity Chart -->
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<div class="grid-span-12 bento-grid">
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<div class="grid-span-12 lg:grid-span-7 glass-card p-6">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl mb-4 text-white">未来发展路径</h3>
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<ul class="steps steps-vertical">
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<li class="step step-info">
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<div class="text-left">
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<h4 class="font-bold">短期 (0-1年): 价格高位运行与利润兑现</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">存量厂商在中间体约束下提高产量，享受价格红利，产业链利润向上游高度集中。</p>
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</div>
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</li>
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<li class="step step-info">
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<div class="text-left">
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<h4 class="font-bold">中期 (1-2年): 新产能释放与格局重塑</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">辉隆、利尔等新产能陆续投产，弥补供给缺口。具备一体化优势的企业将脱颖而出。</p>
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</div>
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</li>
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<li class="step">
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<div class="text-left">
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<h4 class="font-bold">长期 (2年以上): 供需再平衡与价格回归</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">规划产能逐步落地，市场或再转向宽松，价格回归成本线，成本控制与技术优势成核心竞争力。</p>
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</div>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="grid-span-12 lg:grid-span-5 glass-card p-6 flex flex-col">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl mb-4 text-white">国内有效产能格局（事故前）</h3>
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<div id="capacityChart" class="flex-grow w-full h-64 lg:h-full"></div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Supporting Data Tabs -->
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<div x-data="{ tab: 'news' }" class="grid-span-12 glass-card p-6">
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<div class="tabs tabs-bordered mb-4">
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<a class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'news'}" @click="tab = 'news'">新闻摘要</a>
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<a class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'roadshow'}" @click="tab = 'roadshow'">路演纪要</a>
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<a class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': tab === 'report'}" @click="tab = 'report'">研报精粹</a>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'news'" class="prose max-w-none prose-invert prose-p:text-gray-300 prose-li:text-gray-300">
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<h4>核心事件：友道化学爆炸</h4>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>事件</strong>: 2025年5月27日，山东高密友道化学有限公司（全球最大氯虫苯甲酰胺生产企业）车间发生爆炸，造成重大人员伤亡。</li>
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<li><strong>行业地位</strong>: 友道化学2023年产能达11000吨，占国内总产能约41%。专家预计其复产可能性低。</li>
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<li><strong>市场影响</strong>: 事故导致供给端产生巨大冲击，行业监管趋严，新项目审批或将收紧。</li>
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</ul>
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<h4>市场反应与价格变动</h4>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>封盘惜售</strong>: 事故后厂家普遍封盘，市场现货供应偏紧，库存偏低。</li>
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<li><strong>价格飙升</strong>: 事故前成本线约22万/吨。事故后，红太阳调价至<strong>30万元/吨</strong>，辉隆股份预售价达<strong>32万元/吨</strong>。百川盈孚数据显示价格一度达30.5万元/吨。</li>
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</ul>
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<h4>关键中间体</h4>
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<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>K胺/K酸</strong>: 供应紧张，是生产核心瓶颈。K胺价格从爆炸前13万/吨涨至25万/吨以上。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>硝化反应</strong>: 是K胺及氯虫苯甲酰胺生产的技术壁垒，也是事故发生环节，未来监管重点。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div x-show="tab === 'roadshow'" class="prose max-w-none prose-invert prose-p:text-gray-300 prose-li:text-gray-300">
|
||
<h4>市场背景与供给格局</h4>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>专利状态</strong>: 化合物专利2022年到期，价格从240万/吨暴跌至24万/吨。一路演提及K胺中间体专利2025年到期，或成新竞争焦点。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>供给瓶颈</strong>: 核心中间体KN/KI供应紧张是限制行业开工率的关键。友道爆炸导致KI产能锐减超40%。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>政策限制</strong>: 发改委已将氯虫苯甲酰胺列入限制类，禁止新增产能。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h4>需求与展望</h4>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>需求增长</strong>: 专利到期后需求从年6000吨增至1.2万吨。全球2024年需求量预计1万-1.3万吨。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>抗性问题</strong>: 抗性问题突出，推动与阿维菌素、甲维盐等复配产品的需求。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>市场展望</strong>: 短期价格上涨空间大；中长期行业集中度将提升，具备技术、安全合规及中间体自给能力的头部企业更具优势。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div x-show="tab === 'report'" class="prose max-w-none prose-invert prose-p:text-gray-300 prose-li:text-gray-300">
|
||
<h4>事故影响深度分析</h4>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>供应短缺</strong>: 友道1.1万吨产能阶段性停产，市场实时供应大幅缩减。预计国内化工园区将进行类比排查，高危工艺监管趋严，可能导致部分企业短期停产或降负荷。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>价格预测</strong>: 百川盈孚预计短期价格或上行至25-28万元/吨（注：此为早期预测，已被市场实际价格超越）。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>需求刚性</strong>: 下游询单氛围热烈，备货心态渐起。东南亚市场处需求旺季，南美市场将逐步开启，海外需求良好。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h4>产业链与替代品</h4>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>K胺</strong>: 最关键原材料，制备涉及高危硝化反应。事故后安全检查力度提高，开工率或受影响，供应阶段性趋紧。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>替代品</strong>: 主要竞品包括溴氰虫酰胺、茚虫威、甲维盐、阿维菌素等。若价格短期暴涨，下游可能选择换用其他杀虫剂。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>产业链相关公司</strong>: 报告系统梳理了从中间体供应（联化科技、善水科技）到原药生产（利尔化学、红太阳、辉隆股份）再到替代品（广信股份、利民股份）的完整名单。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock Data -->
|
||
<div class="grid-span-12 glass-card p-6">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M9 17v-2m3 2v-4m3 4v-6m2 10H7a2 2 0 01-2-2V7a2 2 0 012-2h10a2 2 0 012 2v8a2 2 0 01-2 2z" /></svg>
|
||
产业链核心标的梳理
|
||
</h2>
|
||
|
||
<div x-data="{ stockTab: 'upstream' }">
|
||
<div class="tabs tabs-bordered mb-4">
|
||
<a class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': stockTab === 'upstream'}" @click="stockTab = 'upstream'">上游核心中间体</a>
|
||
<a class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': stockTab === 'midstream'}" @click="stockTab = 'midstream'">中游原药生产</a>
|
||
<a class="tab" :class="{'tab-active': stockTab === 'substitute'}" @click="stockTab = 'substitute'">下游及替代逻辑</a>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Upstream Table -->
|
||
<div x-show="stockTab === 'upstream'">
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>公司名称</th>
|
||
<th>核心产品</th>
|
||
<th>产能详情 (吨)</th>
|
||
<th>逻辑/备注</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr class="font-bold text-white"><td colspan="4">K胺 (最核心瓶颈)</td></tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002250" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">联化科技 (002250)</a></td>
|
||
<td>K胺</td>
|
||
<td>现有: 5000</td>
|
||
<td>产业链最紧缺环节核心供应商，逻辑最纯粹的"卖铲人"。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300804" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">广康生化 (300804)</a></td>
|
||
<td>K胺</td>
|
||
<td>在建: 2500</td>
|
||
<td>在建产能，未来潜在供应商。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002556" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">辉隆股份 (002556)</a></td>
|
||
<td>K胺</td>
|
||
<td>规划: 2200</td>
|
||
<td>规划布局，旨在实现一体化配套。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="font-bold text-white"><td colspan="4">K酸</td></tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300261" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">雅本化学 (300261)</a></td>
|
||
<td>K酸</td>
|
||
<td>现有: 2000</td>
|
||
<td>国内K酸重要供应商。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301190" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">善水科技 (301190)</a></td>
|
||
<td>K酸</td>
|
||
<td>现有: 4000; 在建: 10000</td>
|
||
<td>K酸领域重要玩家，产能规模大。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002556" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">辉隆股份 (002556)</a></td>
|
||
<td>K酸</td>
|
||
<td>现有: ~900</td>
|
||
<td>实现部分中间体自供。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="font-bold text-white"><td colspan="4">2,3-二氯吡啶</td></tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301190" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">善水科技 (301190)</a></td>
|
||
<td>2,3-二氯吡啶</td>
|
||
<td>现有: 550; 在建: 8000</td>
|
||
<td>核心中间体少数规模化生产企业。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600486" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">扬农化工 (600486)</a></td>
|
||
<td>2,3-二氯吡啶</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>通过技术突破降低进口依赖，展现研发实力。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Midstream Table -->
|
||
<div x-show="stockTab === 'midstream'">
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>公司名称</th>
|
||
<th>现有产能 (吨)</th>
|
||
<th>在建/规划产能 (吨)</th>
|
||
<th>逻辑/备注</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>友道化学 (未上市)</td>
|
||
<td>11000</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td class="text-red-400">事故方，产能已停摆，是本轮行情的触发点。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002258" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">利尔化学 (002258)</a></td>
|
||
<td>5000</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>除友道外最大存量产能，但中间体配套是其产量释放的关键验证点。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>ST红太阳 (000525)</td>
|
||
<td>2000</td>
|
||
<td>6000</td>
|
||
<td>价格引领者，行动迅速，有一定中间体配套，在建产能规模大。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002556" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">辉隆股份 (002556)</a></td>
|
||
<td>2000</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>迅速跟进提价，一体化战略清晰，年底投产预期提供看点。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300261" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">雅本化学 (300261)</a></td>
|
||
<td>2000</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>同时布局上游K酸和中游原药。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300575" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">中旗股份 (300575)</a></td>
|
||
<td>1500</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>项目预计今年四季度投产，逐步供应市场。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603639" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">海利尔 (603639)</a></td>
|
||
<td>1000</td>
|
||
<td>3000</td>
|
||
<td>拥有存量产能，并积极扩张。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002391" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">长青股份 (002391)</a></td>
|
||
<td>1000</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>具备原药生产能力。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600486" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">扬农化工 (600486)</a></td>
|
||
<td>~1300 (环评)</td>
|
||
<td>3000</td>
|
||
<td>技术实力雄厚，同时布局替代品四氯虫酰胺。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603599" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">广信股份 (603599)</a></td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>7000</td>
|
||
<td>在建产能规模巨大，未来重要增量。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=605033" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">美邦股份 (605033)</a></td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>2000</td>
|
||
<td>预计25年底完成，属于远期产能。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Substitute Table -->
|
||
<div x-show="stockTab === 'substitute'">
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>公司名称</th>
|
||
<th>业务角色</th>
|
||
<th>相关产品/逻辑</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>中农立华 (603970)</td>
|
||
<td>渠道与销售</td>
|
||
<td>与ST红太阳签署独家销售协议，锁定渠道。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>诺普信 (002215)</td>
|
||
<td>制剂与登记</td>
|
||
<td>已取得氯虫苯甲酰胺产品登记证及复配产品。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="font-bold text-white"><td colspan="3">替代品逻辑</td></tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603599" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">广信股份 (603599)</a></td>
|
||
<td>替代品生产</td>
|
||
<td>茚虫威 (3000吨)，与氯虫苯甲酰胺有一定替代关系。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002734" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">利民股份 (002734)</a></td>
|
||
<td>替代品生产</td>
|
||
<td>阿维菌素、甲维盐 (1300吨)，主流替代品之一。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600486" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">扬农化工 (600486)</a></td>
|
||
<td>新一代替代品</td>
|
||
<td>四氯虫酰胺，与氯虫苯甲酰胺机理相同，杀虫谱广，前景良好。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Rise Analysis -->
|
||
<div class="grid-span-12 glass-card p-6">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-6 w-6" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M13 7h8m0 0v8m0-8l-8 8-4-4-6 6" /></svg>
|
||
涨停复盘解析
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<div class="space-y-6">
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="my-accordion-3" checked="checked" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-red-400">
|
||
红太阳 (000525) - 2025-06-17 涨停分析
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<p><strong>核心结论:</strong> 红太阳涨停主要源于氯虫苯甲酰胺价格持续上涨、友道化学爆炸事件带来的行业地位提升，以及云南曲靖新增产能即将投产等多重利好因素叠加。</p>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside mt-2 text-gray-300">
|
||
<li><strong>价格驱动:</strong> 作为价格上调的引领者，直接受益于氯虫苯甲酰胺价格从22万/吨向30万/吨以上跃升。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>行业地位提升:</strong> 友道退出后，公司成为全球少数规模化K胺供应商之一，议价能力增强。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>产能扩张:</strong> 云南曲靖新增6000吨（研报数据）产能，有望填补市场缺口，支撑业绩持续增长。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>技术成本优势:</strong> 采用微通道连续流工艺，生产成本具备显著优势。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="my-accordion-3" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-green-400">
|
||
先达股份 (603086) - 2025-06-16 涨停分析 (关联逻辑)
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<p><strong>核心结论:</strong> 先达股份涨停主要受益于其主营产品烯草酮的供给短缺和价格上涨，同时，农药板块整体情绪受到氯虫苯甲酰胺事件提振，形成板块联动效应。</p>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside mt-2 text-gray-300">
|
||
<li><strong>主营驱动:</strong> 核心逻辑在于烯草酮价格上涨带来的业绩弹性。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>板块情绪传导:</strong> 氯虫苯甲酰胺价格飙升事件，点燃了市场对整个农药板块（尤其是供给格局出现变化的细分品种）的热情。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>行业景气度共振:</strong> 农化产品需求旺盛，市场对具有定价权优势的龙头企业（如先达的烯草酮）给予了更高预期。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<footer class="text-center mt-12 p-4 text-xs text-gray-600">
|
||
<p>北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研”</p>
|
||
<p>免责声明：本报告由人工智能基于公开信息自动生成，不构成任何投资建议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。</p>
|
||
</footer>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function () {
|
||
// Price Chart Initialization
|
||
var priceChartDom = document.getElementById('priceChart');
|
||
var priceChart = echarts.init(priceChartDom, 'dark');
|
||
var priceOption = {
|
||
backgroundColor: 'transparent',
|
||
tooltip: {
|
||
trigger: 'axis',
|
||
axisPointer: { type: 'cross' }
|
||
},
|
||
grid: {
|
||
left: '3%',
|
||
right: '4%',
|
||
bottom: '3%',
|
||
containLabel: true
|
||
},
|
||
xAxis: {
|
||
type: 'category',
|
||
boundaryGap: false,
|
||
data: ['2024-07', '2024-11', '2025-03', '2025-05-26', '2025-06-05', '2025-06-12', '2025-06-17'],
|
||
axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#8392A5' } }
|
||
},
|
||
yAxis: {
|
||
type: 'value',
|
||
min: 20,
|
||
max: 35,
|
||
axisLabel: { formatter: '{value}' },
|
||
axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#8392A5' } },
|
||
splitLine: { lineStyle: { color: 'rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1)' } }
|
||
},
|
||
series: [{
|
||
name: '价格',
|
||
type: 'line',
|
||
smooth: true,
|
||
data: [24, 21.5, 21.5, 22.8, 30, 32, 30.5],
|
||
itemStyle: { color: 'hsl(193, 95%, 68%)' },
|
||
areaStyle: {
|
||
color: new echarts.graphic.LinearGradient(0, 0, 0, 1, [{
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||
offset: 0,
|
||
color: 'rgba(30, 144, 255, 0.5)'
|
||
}, {
|
||
offset: 1,
|
||
color: 'rgba(30, 144, 255, 0)'
|
||
}])
|
||
},
|
||
markPoint: {
|
||
data: [
|
||
{ name: '专利到期', coord: [0, 24] },
|
||
{ name: '事故前', coord: [3, 22.8] },
|
||
]
|
||
},
|
||
markLine: {
|
||
silent: true,
|
||
symbol: 'none',
|
||
data: [{
|
||
xAxis: '2025-05-26',
|
||
label: {
|
||
formatter: '友道事故',
|
||
position: 'start',
|
||
color: '#f87171'
|
||
},
|
||
lineStyle: {
|
||
color: '#f87171',
|
||
type: 'dashed'
|
||
}
|
||
}]
|
||
}
|
||
}]
|
||
};
|
||
priceChart.setOption(priceOption);
|
||
|
||
// Capacity Chart Initialization
|
||
var capacityChartDom = document.getElementById('capacityChart');
|
||
var capacityChart = echarts.init(capacityChartDom, 'dark');
|
||
var capacityOption = {
|
||
backgroundColor: 'transparent',
|
||
tooltip: {
|
||
trigger: 'item',
|
||
formatter: '{b} <br/>产能: {c}吨 ({d}%)'
|
||
},
|
||
legend: {
|
||
orient: 'vertical',
|
||
left: 'left',
|
||
textStyle: { color: '#ccc' }
|
||
},
|
||
series: [{
|
||
name: '产能格局',
|
||
type: 'pie',
|
||
radius: ['40%', '70%'],
|
||
avoidLabelOverlap: false,
|
||
itemStyle: {
|
||
borderRadius: 10,
|
||
borderColor: 'rgba(18, 24, 49, 1)',
|
||
borderWidth: 2
|
||
},
|
||
label: {
|
||
show: false,
|
||
position: 'center'
|
||
},
|
||
emphasis: {
|
||
label: {
|
||
show: true,
|
||
fontSize: '20',
|
||
fontWeight: 'bold'
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
labelLine: {
|
||
show: false
|
||
},
|
||
data: [
|
||
{ value: 11000, name: '友道化学' },
|
||
{ value: 5000, name: '利尔化学' },
|
||
{ value: 3000, name: '内蒙古灵圣' },
|
||
{ value: 3000, name: '内蒙古中高' },
|
||
{ value: 2000, name: '红太阳' },
|
||
{ value: 2000, name: '辉隆股份' },
|
||
{ value: 1000, name: '山西绿海' },
|
||
{ value: 2500, name: '其他' } // 中旗 1500 + 扬农/海利尔/长青等
|
||
]
|
||
}]
|
||
};
|
||
capacityChart.setOption(capacityOption);
|
||
|
||
// Resize charts on window resize
|
||
window.addEventListener('resize', function () {
|
||
priceChart.resize();
|
||
capacityChart.resize();
|
||
});
|
||
});
|
||
</script>
|
||
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html> |