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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="zh-CN">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8" />
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1, shrink-to-fit=no">
<title>长安的荔枝 - 概念分析报告</title>
<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Noto+Serif+SC:wght@400;500;600;700&family=Inter:wght@300;400;500;600;700;800&display=swap" rel="stylesheet" />
<!-- Nucleo Icons -->
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<!-- Font Awesome Icons -->
<script src="https://kit.fontawesome.com/1d2b6c4f81.js" crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
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<style>
body {
font-family: 'Noto Serif SC', serif;
background-color: #f8f9fa;
color: #344767;
}
.concept-title {
font-family: 'Inter', sans-serif;
background: linear-gradient(135deg, #e74c3c, #f39c12);
-webkit-background-clip: text;
background-clip: text;
color: transparent;
}
.section-card {
background: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.9);
backdrop-filter: blur(10px);
border-radius: 16px;
box-shadow: 0 10px 30px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);
transition: transform 0.3s ease, box-shadow 0.3s ease;
}
.section-card:hover {
transform: translateY(-5px);
box-shadow: 0 15px 35px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.15);
}
.timeline-item {
position: relative;
padding-left: 30px;
}
.timeline-item:before {
content: "";
position: absolute;
left: 0;
top: 8px;
width: 12px;
height: 12px;
border-radius: 50%;
background: #e74c3c;
}
.timeline-item:after {
content: "";
position: absolute;
left: 5px;
top: 20px;
width: 2px;
height: calc(100% + 10px);
background: #e74c3c;
}
.timeline-item:last-child:after {
display: none;
}
.table-responsive {
overflow-x: visible;
}
.highlight-text {
color: #e74c3c;
font-weight: 600;
}
#bg-canvas {
position: fixed;
top: 0;
left: 0;
width: 100%;
height: 100%;
z-index: -1;
opacity: 0.05;
}
.badge-custom {
background: linear-gradient(135deg, #e74c3c, #f39c12);
color: white;
padding: 4px 12px;
border-radius: 20px;
font-size: 0.75rem;
font-weight: 600;
}
@media (max-width: 768px) {
.section-card {
margin-bottom: 20px;
}
.table-responsive {
overflow-x: auto;
}
}
</style>
</head>
<body class="bg-gray-50">
<canvas id="bg-canvas"></canvas>
<div class="container mx-auto px-4 py-8 max-w-6xl">
<!-- 标题区域 -->
<div class="text-center mb-12">
<h1 class="concept-title text-4xl md:text-5xl font-bold mb-4">长安的荔枝</h1>
<p class="text-lg text-gray-600 max-w-3xl mx-auto">影视IP引爆消费热潮荔枝产业链迎来新机遇</p>
<div class="mt-4 flex justify-center space-x-2">
<span class="badge-custom">影视IP</span>
<span class="badge-custom">消费升级</span>
<span class="badge-custom">文旅联动</span>
<span class="badge-custom">荔枝产业链</span>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 核心观点摘要 -->
<div class="section-card p-6 mb-8">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 flex items-center">
<i class="fas fa-lightbulb text-yellow-500 mr-3"></i>
核心观点摘要
</h2>
<div class="bg-gradient-to-r from-red-50 to-orange-50 p-5 rounded-lg border-l-4 border-red-500">
<p class="mb-3"><span class="highlight-text">阶段判断:</span>当前处于"IP情绪驱动→基本面验证"过渡期,影视票房超预期但变现效率低,消费端(荔枝衍生品)已验证需求,需观察<span class="highlight-text">IP长尾价值</span>能否延伸至文旅、供应链。</p>
<p><span class="highlight-text">核心矛盾:</span>市场高估IP短期变现如华谊兄弟分成微薄低估<span class="highlight-text">荔枝产业链</span>(种植、加工、文旅)的协同潜力。</p>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 概念事件 -->
<div class="section-card p-6 mb-8">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 flex items-center">
<i class="fas fa-calendar-alt text-blue-500 mr-3"></i>
概念事件
</h2>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
<div>
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3">背景与催化事件</h3>
<ul class="space-y-3">
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="fas fa-film text-red-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
<div>
<span class="font-medium">影视IP引爆</span>
2025年7月18日电影《长安的荔枝》提档上映<span class="highlight-text">票房6天破6亿</span>截至8月2日成为暑期档现象级作品。
</div>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="fas fa-shopping-cart text-green-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
<div>
<span class="font-medium">消费联动:</span>
剧集版《长安的荔枝》带动"荔枝热",乳品品牌"认养一头牛"推出荔枝风味新品,<span class="highlight-text">首发日销量10万瓶</span>、冰淇淋一周出库30万支。
</div>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="fas fa-chart-line text-purple-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
<div>
<span class="font-medium">资本映射:</span>
华谊兄弟300027.SZ公告截至7月22日电影票房2.8亿,公司确认营收仅<span class="highlight-text">45.5万-59万</span>占比极低引发市场对IP变现效率的质疑
</div>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="fas fa-landmark text-yellow-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
<div>
<span class="font-medium">文旅延伸:</span>
西安文旅(曲江文旅、西安旅游)借势营销,联动大唐芙蓉园等景区,暑期客流<span class="highlight-text">同比增40%</span>
</div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3">时间轴</h3>
<div class="space-y-4">
<div class="timeline-item">
<p class="font-medium">2025-06-17</p>
<p>认养一头牛推出荔枝新品IP消费化启动</p>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item">
<p class="font-medium">2025-07-13</p>
<p>电影官宣提档至7月18日</p>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item">
<p class="font-medium">2025-07-22</p>
<p>华谊兄弟披露票房分成比例(<span class="highlight-text">营收占比&lt;0.002%</span></p>
</div>
<div class="timeline-item">
<p class="font-medium">2025-08-02</p>
<p>票房破6亿暑期档热度登顶</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 核心逻辑与市场认知分析 -->
<div class="section-card p-6 mb-8">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 flex items-center">
<i class="fas fa-brain text-indigo-500 mr-3"></i>
核心逻辑与市场认知分析
</h2>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
<div class="bg-blue-50 p-5 rounded-lg">
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3 text-blue-700">核心驱动力</h3>
<ul class="space-y-3">
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="fas fa-check-circle text-blue-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
<div>
<span class="font-medium">文化IP杠杆</span>
马伯庸IP+暑期档稀缺性,<span class="highlight-text">猫眼想看指数31.6万</span>同类第一历史喜剧类型票房上限12亿《独行月球》
</div>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="fas fa-check-circle text-blue-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
<div>
<span class="font-medium">消费场景裂变:</span>
荔枝从"水果"升级为"文化符号"<span class="highlight-text">认养一头牛案例验证</span>IP溢价新品溢价率30%+)。
</div>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="fas fa-check-circle text-blue-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
<div>
<span class="font-medium">区域经济带:</span>
西安文旅绑定"长安"标签,<span class="highlight-text">大唐不夜城客流单日破10万</span>(暑期数据),形成"影视-文旅-农产品"闭环。
</div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="bg-orange-50 p-5 rounded-lg">
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3 text-orange-700">市场认知偏差</h3>
<ul class="space-y-3">
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="fas fa-exclamation-triangle text-orange-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
<div>
<span class="font-medium">高估影视分成:</span>
华谊兄弟<span class="highlight-text">票房分成比例&lt;0.1%</span>(因联合出品方众多),但股价仍受情绪拉动。
</div>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="fas fa-exclamation-triangle text-orange-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
<div>
<span class="font-medium">低估供应链价值:</span>
岭南控股荔枝种植140万亩、田野股份千年古树承包未被充分定价<span class="highlight-text">荔枝期货价格7月涨15%</span>(供需缺口+IP催化
</div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 产业链与核心公司深度剖析 -->
<div class="section-card p-6 mb-8">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 flex items-center">
<i class="fas fa-sitemap text-green-500 mr-3"></i>
产业链与核心公司深度剖析
</h2>
<div class="mb-6">
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3">产业链图谱</h3>
<div class="flex flex-wrap justify-center gap-4">
<div class="bg-red-100 text-red-800 px-4 py-2 rounded-lg text-center min-w-[150px]">
<p class="font-medium">上游</p>
<p>荔枝种植</p>
<p class="text-sm mt-1">岭南控股、田野股份</p>
</div>
<div class="bg-blue-100 text-blue-800 px-4 py-2 rounded-lg text-center min-w-[150px]">
<p class="font-medium">中游</p>
<p>IP开发</p>
<p class="text-sm mt-1">华谊兄弟、富春股份</p>
</div>
<div class="bg-green-100 text-green-800 px-4 py-2 rounded-lg text-center min-w-[150px]">
<p class="font-medium">下游</p>
<p>消费/文旅</p>
<p class="text-sm mt-1">认养一头牛、曲江文旅</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3">核心玩家对比</h3>
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
<table class="min-w-full bg-white rounded-lg overflow-hidden">
<thead class="bg-gray-100">
<tr>
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">公司</th>
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">角色</th>
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">验证数据</th>
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">风险点</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="border-b">
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">岭南控股</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">荔枝种植龙头</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4"><span class="highlight-text">140万亩种植占全国1/4</span></td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">天气减产、价格波动</td>
</tr>
<tr class="border-b bg-gray-50">
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">华谊兄弟</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">电影出品方</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4"><span class="highlight-text">票房6亿但分成&lt;0.1%</span></td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">变现效率低、商誉减值</td>
</tr>
<tr class="border-b">
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">曲江文旅</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">景区运营</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4"><span class="highlight-text">暑期客流增40%</span>(官方数据)</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">高基数下增速可持续性</td>
</tr>
<tr class="border-b bg-gray-50">
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">认养一头牛</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">消费衍生品</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4"><span class="highlight-text">荔枝酸奶首发10万瓶</span>(售罄)</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">品类单一、复购率待验证</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 关联股票数据 -->
<div class="section-card p-6 mb-8">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 flex items-center">
<i class="fas fa-chart-bar text-purple-500 mr-3"></i>
关联股票数据
</h2>
<div class="table-responsive">
<table class="min-w-full bg-white rounded-lg overflow-hidden">
<thead class="bg-gray-100">
<tr>
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">股票名称</th>
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">分类</th>
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">项目/关联角色</th>
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">关键数据/原因</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="border-b">
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">富春股份</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">出品</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">长安的荔枝(剧版)<br>出品方</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">公司持有东阳留白影视文化公司3.24%股权东阳留白是剧版《长安的荔枝》出品方参股留白影视或间接持有IP开发权</td>
</tr>
<tr class="border-b bg-gray-50">
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">浙文影业</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">出品</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">长安的荔枝(电视剧)<br>联合出品方</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">浙文影业联合出品《长安的荔枝》电视剧</td>
</tr>
<tr class="border-b">
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">曲江文旅</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">出品</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">长安的荔枝(电影)<br>联合出品方</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">母公司西安曲江影视投资集团是电影《长安的荔枝》联合出品方之一</td>
</tr>
<tr class="border-b bg-gray-50">
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">中南传媒</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">出品</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">长安的荔枝(原著小说)<br>原著出版方</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">《长安的荔枝》原著小说出版方2024年全国综合图书零售市场占有率为5.37%,排名第二</td>
</tr>
<tr class="border-b">
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">万达电影</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">出品</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">长安的荔枝(电影)<br>联合出品方</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">电影《长安的荔枝》联合出品方之一</td>
</tr>
<tr class="border-b bg-gray-50">
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">曲江文旅</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">旅游</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">景区运营</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">全年接待游客过亿人次,联动大唐芙蓉园、西安城墙景区、大明宫国家遗址公园三个核心景区</td>
</tr>
<tr class="border-b">
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">西安饮食</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">旅游</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">餐饮业</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">西北地区最大的餐饮企业</td>
</tr>
<tr class="border-b bg-gray-50">
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">西安旅游</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">旅游</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">旅行社</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">陕西第一大旅行社,《长安的荔枝》剧版带动了西安暑期旅游热度,大唐不夜城客流量激增</td>
</tr>
<tr class="border-b">
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">岭南控股</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">其他</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">荔枝种植</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">荔枝之乡2024年荔枝种植面积超140万亩荔枝年产量约占全国的1/4、世界的1/5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="border-b bg-gray-50">
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">田野股份</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">其他</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">荔枝古树承包</td>
<td class="py-3 px-4">承包海南陵水千年荔枝古树(剧中原型)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
<!-- 综合结论与投资启示 -->
<div class="section-card p-6 mb-8">
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 flex items-center">
<i class="fas fa-conclusion text-teal-500 mr-3"></i>
综合结论与投资启示
</h2>
<div class="bg-gradient-to-r from-teal-50 to-cyan-50 p-5 rounded-lg border-l-4 border-teal-500">
<div class="mb-4">
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-2 text-teal-700">阶段判断</h3>
<p>主题炒作末期,<span class="highlight-text">需转向基本面验证</span>(荔枝销量、文旅数据)。</p>
</div>
<div class="mb-4">
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-2 text-teal-700">投资方向</h3>
<ul class="space-y-2">
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="fas fa-arrow-up text-green-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
<div><span class="font-medium">上游:</span>岭南控股(<span class="highlight-text">荔枝涨价+品牌溢价</span>双重弹性)。</div>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="fas fa-arrow-up text-green-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
<div><span class="font-medium">下游:</span>曲江文旅(<span class="highlight-text">暑期数据超预期</span>概率高)。</div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-2 text-teal-700">跟踪指标</h3>
<ul class="space-y-2">
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="fas fa-chart-line text-blue-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
<div><span class="highlight-text">9月荔枝期货价格</span>(反映供需缺口)。</div>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="fas fa-chart-line text-blue-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
<div><span class="highlight-text">西安Q3旅游收入增速</span>(验证文旅协同)。</div>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<i class="fas fa-chart-line text-blue-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
<div><span class="highlight-text">华谊兄弟IP授权新公告</span>(若出现游戏/文创合作,可重估)。</div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="mt-4 p-3 bg-yellow-50 rounded-lg">
<p class="text-sm"><span class="font-semibold text-yellow-700">风险提示:</span>若票房止步8亿以下且荔枝减产不及预期概念或快速退潮。</p>
</div>
</div>
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```