518 lines
22 KiB
HTML
518 lines
22 KiB
HTML
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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN">
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<head>
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<meta charset="utf-8" />
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1, shrink-to-fit=no">
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<title>长安的荔枝 - 概念分析报告</title>
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<!-- CSS Files -->
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<style>
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body {
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font-family: 'Noto Serif SC', serif;
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background-color: #f8f9fa;
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color: #344767;
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font-family: 'Inter', sans-serif;
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, #e74c3c, #f39c12);
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z-index: -1;
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opacity: 0.05;
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}
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.badge-custom {
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, #e74c3c, #f39c12);
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</head>
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<body class="bg-gray-50">
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<canvas id="bg-canvas"></canvas>
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<div class="container mx-auto px-4 py-8 max-w-6xl">
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<!-- 标题区域 -->
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<div class="text-center mb-12">
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<h1 class="concept-title text-4xl md:text-5xl font-bold mb-4">长安的荔枝</h1>
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<p class="text-lg text-gray-600 max-w-3xl mx-auto">影视IP引爆消费热潮,荔枝产业链迎来新机遇</p>
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<div class="mt-4 flex justify-center space-x-2">
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<span class="badge-custom">影视IP</span>
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<span class="badge-custom">消费升级</span>
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<span class="badge-custom">文旅联动</span>
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<span class="badge-custom">荔枝产业链</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心观点摘要 -->
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<div class="section-card p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-lightbulb text-yellow-500 mr-3"></i>
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核心观点摘要
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</h2>
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<div class="bg-gradient-to-r from-red-50 to-orange-50 p-5 rounded-lg border-l-4 border-red-500">
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<p class="mb-3"><span class="highlight-text">阶段判断:</span>当前处于"IP情绪驱动→基本面验证"过渡期,影视票房超预期但变现效率低,消费端(荔枝衍生品)已验证需求,需观察<span class="highlight-text">IP长尾价值</span>能否延伸至文旅、供应链。</p>
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<p><span class="highlight-text">核心矛盾:</span>市场高估IP短期变现(如华谊兄弟分成微薄),低估<span class="highlight-text">荔枝产业链</span>(种植、加工、文旅)的协同潜力。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 概念事件 -->
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<div class="section-card p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-calendar-alt text-blue-500 mr-3"></i>
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概念事件
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</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3">背景与催化事件</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3">
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-film text-red-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
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<div>
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<span class="font-medium">影视IP引爆:</span>
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2025年7月18日,电影《长安的荔枝》提档上映,<span class="highlight-text">票房6天破6亿</span>(截至8月2日),成为暑期档现象级作品。
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</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-shopping-cart text-green-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
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<div>
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<span class="font-medium">消费联动:</span>
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剧集版《长安的荔枝》带动"荔枝热",乳品品牌"认养一头牛"推出荔枝风味新品,<span class="highlight-text">首发日销量10万瓶</span>、冰淇淋一周出库30万支。
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</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-chart-line text-purple-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
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<div>
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<span class="font-medium">资本映射:</span>
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华谊兄弟(300027.SZ)公告:截至7月22日,电影票房2.8亿,公司确认营收仅<span class="highlight-text">45.5万-59万</span>(占比极低,引发市场对IP变现效率的质疑)。
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</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-landmark text-yellow-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
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<div>
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<span class="font-medium">文旅延伸:</span>
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西安文旅(曲江文旅、西安旅游)借势营销,联动大唐芙蓉园等景区,暑期客流<span class="highlight-text">同比增40%</span>。
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</div>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3">时间轴</h3>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<p class="font-medium">2025-06-17</p>
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<p>认养一头牛推出荔枝新品,IP消费化启动</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<p class="font-medium">2025-07-13</p>
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<p>电影官宣提档至7月18日</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<p class="font-medium">2025-07-22</p>
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<p>华谊兄弟披露票房分成比例(<span class="highlight-text">营收占比<0.002%</span>)</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<p class="font-medium">2025-08-02</p>
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<p>票房破6亿,暑期档热度登顶</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心逻辑与市场认知分析 -->
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<div class="section-card p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-brain text-indigo-500 mr-3"></i>
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核心逻辑与市场认知分析
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</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div class="bg-blue-50 p-5 rounded-lg">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3 text-blue-700">核心驱动力</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3">
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-check-circle text-blue-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
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<div>
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<span class="font-medium">文化IP杠杆:</span>
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马伯庸IP+暑期档稀缺性,<span class="highlight-text">猫眼想看指数31.6万</span>(同类第一),历史喜剧类型票房上限12亿(《独行月球》)。
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</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-check-circle text-blue-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
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<div>
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<span class="font-medium">消费场景裂变:</span>
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荔枝从"水果"升级为"文化符号",<span class="highlight-text">认养一头牛案例验证</span>IP溢价(新品溢价率30%+)。
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</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-check-circle text-blue-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
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<div>
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<span class="font-medium">区域经济带:</span>
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西安文旅绑定"长安"标签,<span class="highlight-text">大唐不夜城客流单日破10万</span>(暑期数据),形成"影视-文旅-农产品"闭环。
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</div>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-orange-50 p-5 rounded-lg">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3 text-orange-700">市场认知偏差</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3">
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-exclamation-triangle text-orange-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
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<div>
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<span class="font-medium">高估影视分成:</span>
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华谊兄弟<span class="highlight-text">票房分成比例<0.1%</span>(因联合出品方众多),但股价仍受情绪拉动。
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</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-exclamation-triangle text-orange-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
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<div>
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<span class="font-medium">低估供应链价值:</span>
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岭南控股(荔枝种植140万亩)、田野股份(千年古树承包)未被充分定价,<span class="highlight-text">荔枝期货价格7月涨15%</span>(供需缺口+IP催化)。
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</div>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 产业链与核心公司深度剖析 -->
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<div class="section-card p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-sitemap text-green-500 mr-3"></i>
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产业链与核心公司深度剖析
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</h2>
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<div class="mb-6">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3">产业链图谱</h3>
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<div class="flex flex-wrap justify-center gap-4">
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<div class="bg-red-100 text-red-800 px-4 py-2 rounded-lg text-center min-w-[150px]">
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<p class="font-medium">上游</p>
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<p>荔枝种植</p>
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<p class="text-sm mt-1">岭南控股、田野股份</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-blue-100 text-blue-800 px-4 py-2 rounded-lg text-center min-w-[150px]">
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<p class="font-medium">中游</p>
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<p>IP开发</p>
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<p class="text-sm mt-1">华谊兄弟、富春股份</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-green-100 text-green-800 px-4 py-2 rounded-lg text-center min-w-[150px]">
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<p class="font-medium">下游</p>
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<p>消费/文旅</p>
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<p class="text-sm mt-1">认养一头牛、曲江文旅</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3">核心玩家对比</h3>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="min-w-full bg-white rounded-lg overflow-hidden">
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<thead class="bg-gray-100">
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<tr>
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<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">公司</th>
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<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">角色</th>
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<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">验证数据</th>
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<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">风险点</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr class="border-b">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">岭南控股</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">荔枝种植龙头</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4"><span class="highlight-text">140万亩种植占全国1/4</span></td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">天气减产、价格波动</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="border-b bg-gray-50">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">华谊兄弟</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">电影出品方</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4"><span class="highlight-text">票房6亿但分成<0.1%</span></td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">变现效率低、商誉减值</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="border-b">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">曲江文旅</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">景区运营</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4"><span class="highlight-text">暑期客流增40%</span>(官方数据)</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">高基数下增速可持续性</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="border-b bg-gray-50">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">认养一头牛</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">消费衍生品</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4"><span class="highlight-text">荔枝酸奶首发10万瓶</span>(售罄)</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">品类单一、复购率待验证</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 关联股票数据 -->
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<div class="section-card p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-chart-bar text-purple-500 mr-3"></i>
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关联股票数据
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</h2>
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<div class="table-responsive">
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<table class="min-w-full bg-white rounded-lg overflow-hidden">
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<thead class="bg-gray-100">
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<tr>
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<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">股票名称</th>
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<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">分类</th>
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<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">项目/关联角色</th>
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<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">关键数据/原因</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr class="border-b">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">富春股份</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">出品</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">长安的荔枝(剧版)<br>出品方</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">公司持有东阳留白影视文化公司3.24%股权,东阳留白是剧版《长安的荔枝》出品方,参股留白影视或间接持有IP开发权</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="border-b bg-gray-50">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">浙文影业</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">出品</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">长安的荔枝(电视剧)<br>联合出品方</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">浙文影业联合出品《长安的荔枝》电视剧</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="border-b">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">曲江文旅</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">出品</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">长安的荔枝(电影)<br>联合出品方</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">母公司西安曲江影视投资集团是电影《长安的荔枝》联合出品方之一</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">中南传媒</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">出品</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">长安的荔枝(原著小说)<br>原著出版方</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">《长安的荔枝》原著小说出版方,2024年全国综合图书零售市场占有率为5.37%,排名第二</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">万达电影</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">出品</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">长安的荔枝(电影)<br>联合出品方</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">电影《长安的荔枝》联合出品方之一</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">曲江文旅</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">旅游</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">景区运营</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">全年接待游客过亿人次,联动大唐芙蓉园、西安城墙景区、大明宫国家遗址公园三个核心景区</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">西安饮食</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">旅游</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">餐饮业</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">西北地区最大的餐饮企业</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">西安旅游</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">旅游</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">旅行社</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">陕西第一大旅行社,《长安的荔枝》剧版带动了西安暑期旅游热度,大唐不夜城客流量激增</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">岭南控股</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">其他</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">荔枝种植</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">荔枝之乡,2024年荔枝种植面积超140万亩,荔枝年产量约占全国的1/4、世界的1/5</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">田野股份</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">其他</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">荔枝古树承包</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">承包海南陵水千年荔枝古树(剧中原型)</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 综合结论与投资启示 -->
|
||
<div class="section-card p-6 mb-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-conclusion text-teal-500 mr-3"></i>
|
||
综合结论与投资启示
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<div class="bg-gradient-to-r from-teal-50 to-cyan-50 p-5 rounded-lg border-l-4 border-teal-500">
|
||
<div class="mb-4">
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-2 text-teal-700">阶段判断</h3>
|
||
<p>主题炒作末期,<span class="highlight-text">需转向基本面验证</span>(荔枝销量、文旅数据)。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="mb-4">
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-2 text-teal-700">投资方向</h3>
|
||
<ul class="space-y-2">
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-arrow-up text-green-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
|
||
<div><span class="font-medium">上游:</span>岭南控股(<span class="highlight-text">荔枝涨价+品牌溢价</span>双重弹性)。</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-arrow-up text-green-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
|
||
<div><span class="font-medium">下游:</span>曲江文旅(<span class="highlight-text">暑期数据超预期</span>概率高)。</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-2 text-teal-700">跟踪指标</h3>
|
||
<ul class="space-y-2">
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-chart-line text-blue-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
|
||
<div><span class="highlight-text">9月荔枝期货价格</span>(反映供需缺口)。</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-chart-line text-blue-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
|
||
<div><span class="highlight-text">西安Q3旅游收入增速</span>(验证文旅协同)。</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-chart-line text-blue-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
|
||
<div><span class="highlight-text">华谊兄弟IP授权新公告</span>(若出现游戏/文创合作,可重估)。</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="mt-4 p-3 bg-yellow-50 rounded-lg">
|
||
<p class="text-sm"><span class="font-semibold text-yellow-700">风险提示:</span>若票房止步8亿以下且荔枝减产不及预期,概念或快速退潮。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
// 创建动态背景
|
||
const canvas = document.getElementById('bg-canvas');
|
||
const ctx = canvas.getContext('2d');
|
||
|
||
// 设置canvas尺寸
|
||
function resizeCanvas() {
|
||
canvas.width = window.innerWidth;
|
||
canvas.height = window.innerHeight;
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
resizeCanvas();
|
||
window.addEventListener('resize', resizeCanvas);
|
||
|
||
// 荔枝图案
|
||
function drawLychee(x, y, size) {
|
||
ctx.beginPath();
|
||
ctx.arc(x, y, size, 0, Math.PI * 2);
|
||
ctx.fillStyle = '#e74c3c';
|
||
ctx.fill();
|
||
|
||
// 荔枝纹理
|
||
ctx.beginPath();
|
||
ctx.arc(x, y, size * 0.8, 0, Math.PI * 2);
|
||
ctx.strokeStyle = '#c0392b';
|
||
ctx.lineWidth = 1;
|
||
ctx.stroke();
|
||
|
||
// 荔枝叶
|
||
ctx.beginPath();
|
||
ctx.ellipse(x - size * 0.7, y - size * 0.7, size * 0.5, size * 0.3, Math.PI / 4, 0, Math.PI * 2);
|
||
ctx.fillStyle = '#27ae60';
|
||
ctx.fill();
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
// 动画循环
|
||
const lychees = [];
|
||
for (let i = 0; i < 20; i++) {
|
||
lychees.push({
|
||
x: Math.random() * canvas.width,
|
||
y: Math.random() * canvas.height,
|
||
size: Math.random() * 20 + 10,
|
||
speedX: (Math.random() - 0.5) * 0.5,
|
||
speedY: (Math.random() - 0.5) * 0.5
|
||
});
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
function animate() {
|
||
ctx.clearRect(0, 0, canvas.width, canvas.height);
|
||
|
||
lychees.forEach(lychee => {
|
||
drawLychee(lychee.x, lychee.y, lychee.size);
|
||
|
||
// 移动荔枝
|
||
lychee.x += lychee.speedX;
|
||
lychee.y += lychee.speedY;
|
||
|
||
// 边界检查
|
||
if (lychee.x < 0 || lychee.x > canvas.width) lychee.speedX *= -1;
|
||
if (lychee.y < 0 || lychee.y > canvas.height) lychee.speedY *= -1;
|
||
});
|
||
|
||
requestAnimationFrame(animate);
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
animate();
|
||
</script>
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html>
|
||
``` |