489 lines
38 KiB
HTML
489 lines
38 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>深度行研 | 概念：芬太尼管制</title>
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<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js" defer></script>
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<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.11.1/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
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<style>
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@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Noto+Sans+SC:wght@300;400;500;700&family=Oxanium:wght@300;400;600;700&display=swap');
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body {
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font-family: 'Noto Sans SC', sans-serif;
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background-color: #010418;
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background-image:
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radial-gradient(ellipse 20% 40% at 20% 25%, rgba(0, 128, 255, 0.2), transparent),
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background-repeat: no-repeat;
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background-attachment: fixed;
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backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
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border: 1px solid rgba(0, 191, 255, 0.2);
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border-radius: 1.5rem; /* 24px */
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box-shadow: 0 8px 32px 0 rgba(0, 191, 255, 0.1);
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display: grid;
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grid-gap: 1rem;
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.bento-item {
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grid-column: span 12;
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@media (min-width: 1024px) {
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.bento-item-1 { grid-column: span 12; }
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.bento-item-2 { grid-column: span 8; }
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border-top: none;
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="min-h-screen p-4 sm:p-6 lg:p-8">
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<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto space-y-8">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center p-6 glass-card">
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<h1 class="font-fui text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold text-cyan-300 glow-text mb-2">概念深度行研：芬太尼管制</h1>
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<p class="font-fui text-lg text-slate-300">AI-Generated Investment Research Analysis</p>
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<div class="mt-4 text-xs text-slate-500 font-fui">
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<p>北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现</p>
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<p>报告生成时间: <span x-data x-text="new Date().toISOString()"></span></p>
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<p class="text-red-500 mt-1">免责声明：本报告为AI合成数据，仅供研究参考，不构成任何投资建议，投资需谨慎。</p>
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</div>
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</header>
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<!-- Main Content Grid -->
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<main class="bento-grid">
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<!-- Core Insight -->
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<section class="bento-item bento-item-1 p-6 md:p-8 glass-card">
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<h2 class="font-fui text-3xl font-bold mb-4 text-cyan-300 glow-text">核心观点摘要 (Core Viewpoint)</h2>
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<p class="text-lg text-slate-200 leading-relaxed">
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“芬太尼管制”概念呈现出显著的<strong class="text-cyan-400">“一体两面”</strong>特征。对内，它是我国医药行业高壁垒的体现，为少数持牌生产企业（如人福医药）构建了坚固的<strong class="text-lime-400">“监管护城河”</strong>，保障了其长期稳定的盈利能力。对外，它演变为中美地缘政治和经贸博弈的关键<strong class="text-red-400">筹码</strong>，其进展直接影响着美国对华关税政策，并催生出<strong class="text-yellow-400">检测、替代、治疗</strong>三大外溢性投资主题。
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</p>
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</section>
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<!-- Core Logic -->
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<section class="bento-item bento-item-2 p-6 md:p-8 glass-card">
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<h2 class="font-fui text-3xl font-bold mb-6 text-cyan-300 glow-text">核心逻辑与市场认知 (Core Logic & Perception)</h2>
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<div class="space-y-6">
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-fui text-xl font-semibold text-cyan-400 mb-2">国内逻辑：监管即壁垒</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300">政策是根本驱动力。我国对麻醉药品实行从原料、生产、流通到处方的<strong class="text-white">全流程、闭环式严格管制</strong>。数据显示，芬太尼类药品生产企业仅<strong class="text-cyan-400">5家</strong>，全国性批发企业仅<strong class="text-cyan-400">3家</strong>。这种极高准入壁垒有效隔绝了市场化竞争，使得相关企业几乎豁免于药品集中采购（集采）的降价风险，享受寡头垄断带来的高且稳定的利润空间。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-fui text-xl font-semibold text-red-400 mb-2">国际逻辑：管制即筹码</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300">地缘政治是核心驱动。芬太尼问题已成为中美贸易谈判的关键变量。美国对华加征的<strong class="text-red-400">20%“芬太尼特别关税”</strong>（适用于所有商品），其调整与否直接与中方在芬太尼管控方面的合作进展挂钩。因此，中国的“管制”行为，既是履行国际责任，也客观上成为了影响宏观经贸环境的重要谈判筹码。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-fui text-xl font-semibold text-yellow-400 mb-2">预期差分析：概念混淆与潜力低估</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300">
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<strong class="text-white">1. 概念混淆：</strong> 市场可能将“芬太尼管制”与广义的“出口管制”（如稀土）相混淆。涨幅分析数据显示，多只股票上涨原因明确指向稀土出口管制，表明部分资金可能在“出口管制”大框架下交易，存在逻辑误判风险。
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<br><strong class="text-white">2. 出口潜力低估：</strong> 市场普遍关注国内业务稳定性，但可能低估了合规企业出海潜力。辰欣药业案例表明，符合对方国家严格监管的前提下，中国企业仍可打开美国市场。
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<br><strong class="text-white">3. 关税广度认知不足：</strong> 20%的芬太尼特别关税适用于所有商品，无行业豁免，其对整体出口成本的影响可能超出市场普遍认知。
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</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Timeline & Market Share -->
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<section class="bento-item bento-item-3 p-6 glass-card flex flex-col">
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<h2 class="font-fui text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-cyan-300 glow-text">关键事件轴 & 市场份额</h2>
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<ul class="timeline timeline-compact timeline-vertical flex-grow">
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<li>
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<div class="timeline-start timeline-box">2019/05/01</div>
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<div class="timeline-middle"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="w-5 h-5 text-cyan-400"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.137-.089l4-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg></div>
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<div class="timeline-end text-sm text-slate-300">中国全球率先对芬太尼类物质实行“整类列管”。</div>
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<hr class="bg-cyan-400"/>
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</li>
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<li>
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<hr class="bg-cyan-400"/>
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<div class="timeline-start timeline-box">2024/01/30</div>
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<div class="timeline-middle"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="w-5 h-5 text-cyan-400"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.137-.089l4-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg></div>
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<div class="timeline-end text-sm text-slate-300">中美禁毒合作工作组首次会议在北京举行。</div>
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<hr class="bg-cyan-400"/>
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</li>
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<li>
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<hr class="bg-cyan-400"/>
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<div class="timeline-start timeline-box">2025/03/04</div>
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<div class="timeline-middle"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="w-5 h-5 text-cyan-400"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.137-.089l4-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg></div>
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<div class="timeline-end text-sm text-slate-300">中国发布《中国的芬太尼类物质管控》白皮书。</div>
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<hr class="bg-cyan-400"/>
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</li>
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<li>
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<hr class="bg-cyan-400"/>
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<div class="timeline-start timeline-box">2025 Q3 (预期)</div>
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<div class="timeline-middle"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="w-5 h-5 text-yellow-400"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zM8.28 7.22a.75.75 0 00-1.06 1.06L8.94 10l-1.72 1.72a.75.75 0 101.06 1.06L10 11.06l1.72 1.72a.75.75 0 101.06-1.06L11.06 10l1.72-1.72a.75.75 0 00-1.06-1.06L10 8.94 8.28 7.22z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg></div>
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<div class="timeline-end text-sm text-slate-300">市场预期的中美芬太尼谈判关键窗口期。</div>
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</li>
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</ul>
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<div id="marketShareChart" class="w-full h-48 mt-4"></div>
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</section>
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<!-- Catalysts -->
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<section class="bento-item bento-item-4 p-6 glass-card">
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<h2 class="font-fui text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-cyan-300 glow-text">关键催化剂 (Key Catalysts)</h2>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-fui text-lg font-semibold text-cyan-400 mb-1">近期催化剂 (3-6个月)</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside text-slate-300 space-y-1 text-sm">
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<li><strong class="text-white">中美谈判进展：</strong>Q3谈判窗口期，任何会议成果或官员互访都是直接催化。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">关税豁免到期：</strong>8月12日是关键节点，美方是否调整税率将影响市场。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">国内新物质列管：</strong>对新前体的列管工作将强化中国管制形象。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-fui text-lg font-semibold text-cyan-400 mb-1">长期发展路径</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside text-slate-300 space-y-1 text-sm">
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<li><strong class="text-white">国内市场：</strong>强监管下寡头垄断持续，看点为新型镇痛药研发及合规产能国际化。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">中美关系：</strong>芬太尼问题将长期成为两国关系的“压力测试仪”，周期性影响市场。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">外溢产业：</strong>检测、替代、治疗三大方向将随海外危机演化而发展。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Industry Chain -->
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<section class="bento-item bento-item-5 p-6 glass-card">
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<h2 class="font-fui text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-cyan-300 glow-text">产业链图谱 (Industry Chain)</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-4 text-center text-sm">
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<!-- Core Chain -->
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<div class="col-span-1 md:col-span-3 font-fui text-lg text-white mb-2">核心产业链 (Core Chain)</div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-slate-900/50 rounded-lg border border-slate-700">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-slate-300 mb-1">上游 (Upstream)</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-400">前体化学品 (如4-ANPP, NPP)</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-cyan-900/50 rounded-lg border border-cyan-700 ring-2 ring-cyan-500">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-cyan-300 mb-1">中游 (Midstream) - 核心</h4>
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<p class="text-cyan-400">原料药及制剂生产<br>(牌照管制，寡头垄断)</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-slate-900/50 rounded-lg border border-slate-700">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-slate-300 mb-1">下游 (Downstream)</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-400">医疗机构 (处方使用)</p>
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</div>
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<!-- Spillover Chain -->
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<div class="col-span-1 md:col-span-3 font-fui text-lg text-white my-2">外溢产业链 (Spillover Chain)</div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-yellow-900/50 rounded-lg border border-yellow-700">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-yellow-300 mb-1">检测 (Detection)</h4>
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<p class="text-yellow-400">滥用检测试剂/设备</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-lime-900/50 rounded-lg border border-lime-700">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lime-300 mb-1">替代 (Alternative)</h4>
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<p class="text-lime-400">非阿片类或低成瘾性镇痛药</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-purple-900/50 rounded-lg border border-purple-700">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-purple-300 mb-1">治疗 (Treatment)</h4>
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<p class="text-purple-400">阿片类过量解毒剂</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Conclusion & Investment -->
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<section class="bento-item bento-item-6 p-6 md:p-8 glass-card">
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<h2 class="font-fui text-3xl font-bold mb-6 text-cyan-300 glow-text">综合结论与投资启示 (Conclusion & Investment Insights)</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-fui text-xl font-semibold text-cyan-400 mb-2">概念阶段判断</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300">概念处于<strong class="text-white">“基本面与主题面共存”</strong>的混合阶段。以<strong class="text-cyan-400">人福医药</strong>为代表的持牌生产环节已进入<strong class="text-lime-400">基本面驱动</strong>的成熟阶段；而以中美关系为变量的关税博弈及外溢环节，则处于<strong class="text-yellow-400">主题炒作和事件驱动</strong>阶段。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-fui text-xl font-semibold text-cyan-400 mb-2">最具投资价值的细分环节</h3>
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<ul class="list-none space-y-2 text-slate-300">
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<li><strong class="text-white">确定性最高：</strong> <span class="badge badge-accent badge-outline">国内持牌生产商</span>。监管护城河提供较高安全边际。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">弹性最大：</strong> <span class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline">替代药品</span> 与 <span class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">检测</span>。具备颠覆式创新潜力和业绩高弹性，但需紧密跟踪政策与商业化进展。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Risks -->
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<section class="bento-item bento-item-7 p-6 glass-card">
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<h2 class="font-fui text-2xl font-bold mb-4 glow-text-magenta">潜在风险与挑战 (Risks & Challenges)</h2>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-slate-300">
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<li class="flex items-start">
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||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 mr-2 text-red-400 flex-shrink-0 mt-1" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M8.257 3.099c.636-1.214 2.451-1.214 3.086 0l5.858 11.166A1.75 1.75 0 0115.457 17H4.543a1.75 1.75 0 01-1.744-2.735L8.257 3.099zM9 13a1 1 0 112 0 1 1 0 01-2 0zm1-4a1 1 0 00-1 1v1a1 1 0 102 0v-1a1 1 0 00-1-1z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
|
||
<div><strong class="text-red-400">国内集采风险：</strong>虽目前豁免，但研报提示不排除未来降价或集采可能，是最大政策风险。</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 mr-2 text-red-400 flex-shrink-0 mt-1" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M8.257 3.099c.636-1.214 2.451-1.214 3.086 0l5.858 11.166A1.75 1.75 0 0115.457 17H4.543a1.75 1.75 0 01-1.744-2.735L8.257 3.099zM9 13a1 1 0 112 0 1 1 0 01-2 0zm1-4a1 1 0 00-1 1v1a1 1 0 102 0v-1a1 1 0 00-1-1z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
|
||
<div><strong class="text-red-400">中美关系恶化风险：</strong>合作破裂可能导致更严厉的关税或制裁，影响宏观环境。</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 mr-2 text-red-400 flex-shrink-0 mt-1" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M8.257 3.099c.636-1.214 2.451-1.214 3.086 0l5.858 11.166A1.75 1.75 0 0115.457 17H4.543a1.75 1.75 0 01-1.744-2.735L8.257 3.099zM9 13a1 1 0 112 0 1 1 0 01-2 0zm1-4a1 1 0 00-1 1v1a1 1 0 102 0v-1a1 1 0 00-1-1z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
|
||
<div><strong class="text-red-400">信息交叉验证风险：</strong>市场存在将“芬太尼管制”与“稀土管制”混淆的情况，需警惕逻辑污染和“伪概念股”。</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Key Indicators -->
|
||
<section class="bento-item bento-item-8 p-6 glass-card">
|
||
<h2 class="font-fui text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-cyan-300 glow-text">需重点跟踪的关键指标 (Key Indicators to Track)</h2>
|
||
<ul class="space-y-3 text-slate-300">
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 mr-2 text-lime-400 flex-shrink-0 mt-1" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor"><path d="M10 12.5a2.5 2.5 0 100-5 2.5 2.5 0 000 5z" /><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M.664 10.59a1.651 1.651 0 010-1.18l3.75-3.75a1.65 1.65 0 012.332 0l3.75 3.75a1.65 1.65 0 010 2.332l-3.75 3.75a1.65 1.65 0 01-2.332 0l-3.75-3.75a1.65 1.65 0 010-1.181A1.651 1.651 0 01.664 10.59zM10 15a5 5 0 100-10 5 5 0 000 10z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
|
||
<div><strong class="text-lime-400">中美关系：</strong>中美禁毒合作工作组会议的官方新闻稿，及美国对华关税税率的任何调整公告。</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 mr-2 text-lime-400 flex-shrink-0 mt-1" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor"><path d="M10 12.5a2.5 2.5 0 100-5 2.5 2.5 0 000 5z" /><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M.664 10.59a1.651 1.651 0 010-1.18l3.75-3.75a1.65 1.65 0 012.332 0l3.75 3.75a1.65 1.65 0 010 2.332l-3.75 3.75a1.65 1.65 0 01-2.332 0l-3.75-3.75a1.65 1.65 0 010-1.181A1.651 1.651 0 01.664 10.59zM10 15a5 5 0 100-10 5 5 0 000 10z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
|
||
<div><strong class="text-lime-400">国内政策：</strong>国家医保局发布的药品集采目录，关注麻醉、精神类药品是否被提及。</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li class="flex items-start">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="h-5 w-5 mr-2 text-lime-400 flex-shrink-0 mt-1" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor"><path d="M10 12.5a2.5 2.5 0 100-5 2.5 2.5 0 000 5z" /><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M.664 10.59a1.651 1.651 0 010-1.18l3.75-3.75a1.65 1.65 0 012.332 0l3.75 3.75a1.65 1.65 0 010 2.332l-3.75 3.75a1.65 1.65 0 01-2.332 0l-3.75-3.75a1.65 1.65 0 010-1.181A1.651 1.651 0 01.664 10.59zM10 15a5 5 0 100-10 5 5 0 000 10z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
|
||
<div><strong class="text-lime-400">公司业绩：</strong>生产商的毛利率、检测公司的海外收入占比、替代药公司的产品销售额及渗透率。</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Data Sources -->
|
||
<section class="p-6 md:p-8 glass-card">
|
||
<h2 class="font-fui text-3xl font-bold mb-6 text-cyan-300 glow-text">原始数据摘要 (Source Data Summary)</h2>
|
||
<div class="space-y-4">
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus data-source-collapse">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="source-accordion" checked="checked" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium font-fui">新闻数据</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content prose prose-invert max-w-none prose-sm text-slate-300">
|
||
<h4>核心政策：《中国的芬太尼类物质管控》白皮书 (2025-03-04)</h4>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>核心立场：</strong>保障合理用药与严格管制双管齐下，推进全球共治。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>主要措施：</strong>法律监管（纳入麻醉药品目录）、技术手段（信息化追溯体系）、及时增列品种、创新整类列管、加强网上清理。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h4>具体管制法规与数据</h4>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>列管物质：</strong>药品（阿芬太尼等4种）、前体（4-ANPP等5种）、整类列管（2019年全球首个）。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>生产企业：</strong>批准5家定点生产企业（人福、恩华等）。2024年原料药生产量100公斤。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>出口管制：</strong>实行出口许可证制度，2024年出口12.3公斤，主要至韩国、越南等，从未向北美出口。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h4>中美关系与芬太尼问题</h4>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>中方立场：</strong>芬太尼是美国的问题，责任在美国自身，但中方对合作持开放态度。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>美方行动：</strong>以芬太尼为由加征10%、20%两轮关税。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>合作进展：</strong>成立禁毒合作工作组，在多领域开展合作。被视为贸易谈判重要筹码。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus data-source-collapse">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="source-accordion" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium font-fui">路演数据</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content prose prose-invert max-w-none prose-sm text-slate-300">
|
||
<h4>国内医药行业管制</h4>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>高壁垒格局：</strong>芬太尼类药物受严格生产、流通、定价和处方权管制，形成行业高壁垒。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>集采豁免逻辑：</strong>因管制层级高、协调难度大、寡头垄断，麻醉药（如舒芬太尼）难以纳入集采，集采风险低。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h4>中美经贸关系中的管制与关税</h4>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>谈判核心议题：</strong>芬太尼管控或成谈判突破口，Q3为关键窗口期。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>“芬太尼特别关税”：</strong>明确存在20%的特别关税，适用于所有商品，无行业豁免。叠加基础关税后，部分行业税率高企。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>市场预期：</strong>关税仍有谈判空间，后续可能“边谈边降”。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus data-source-collapse">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="source-accordion" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium font-fui">研报数据</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content prose prose-invert max-w-none prose-sm text-slate-300">
|
||
<h4>中国芬太尼管控政策总结 (2025-03-13)</h4>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>科学界定：</strong>明确芬太尼类物质及前体的法律定义。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>双管齐下：</strong>医疗用途上，实行定点生产（5家）、定点经营（3家全国性批发）、处方管制、出口许可等闭环管理。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>打击犯罪：</strong>2019年5月1日起实施整类列管，为全球首个，并完善法律保障和执法行动。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>前体管控：</strong>已列管5种前体，并正在推进新增列管工作，实施严格出口审批和国际核查。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h4>人福医药专题报告 (2024-08-13/14)</h4>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>管制属性：</strong>芬太尼作为麻醉药品，受生产、流通、销售多维度严格把控，不得零售。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>市场结果：</strong>宜昌人福（人福核心子公司）是国内唯一芬太尼全系生产企业，2023年系列市占率超90%。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>风险提示：</strong>未来不排除降价甚至集采风险，需关注政策波动。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Associated Stocks -->
|
||
<section class="p-6 md:p-8 glass-card">
|
||
<h2 class="font-fui text-3xl font-bold mb-6 text-cyan-300 glow-text">关联个股分析 (Associated Stocks)</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra-zebra bg-transparent">
|
||
<thead class="font-fui text-cyan-300">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>逻辑/原因</th>
|
||
<th>产业链环节</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><th>奥泰生物 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688606" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">688606</a>)</th><td>拥有单一卡型和十四合一毒品联检产品，已在美国地区实现销售</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary">芬太尼(检测)</div><div class="badge badge-outline ml-2">FDA认证时间第一</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><th>万孚生物 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300482" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">300482</a>)</th><td>毒检业务，2024年Q3拿到芬太尼的FDA注册证</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary">芬太尼(检测)</div><div class="badge badge-outline ml-2">FDA认证时间第二</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><th>东方生物 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688298" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">688298</a>)</th><td>芬太尼检测试剂有美国FDA及欧盟CE认证</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary">芬太尼(检测)</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><th>奥赛康 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002755" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002755</a>)</th><td>新型镇痛药：帕瑞昔布钠</td><td><div class="badge badge-accent">芬太尼(替代)</div><div class="badge badge-outline ml-2">上市进度第一</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><th>康缘药业 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600557" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600557</a>)</th><td>治疗中重度疼痛：痛安注射液</td><td><div class="badge badge-accent">芬太尼(替代)</div><div class="badge badge-outline ml-2">纯中药注射剂</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><th>苑东生物 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688513" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">688513</a>)</th><td>盐酸纳美芬注射液或将成为美国FDA第二个批准上市的该品种仿制药</td><td><div class="badge badge-secondary">阿片类过量(治疗)</div><div class="badge badge-outline ml-2">或为FDA批准第二</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><th>易瑞生物 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300942" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">300942</a>)</th><td>曾有芬太尼检测盒，但2024年3月互动称已无相关业务</td><td><div class="badge badge-error">已无相关业务</div></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><th>信邦制药 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002390" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002390</a>)</th><td>旗下中肽生化曾有试剂盒，但公司已于2020年转让</td><td><div class="badge badge-error">已无相关业务</div></td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Rise Analysis -->
|
||
<section class="p-6 md:p-8 glass-card">
|
||
<h2 class="font-fui text-3xl font-bold mb-6 text-cyan-300 glow-text">涨幅异动分析 (Rise Analysis)</h2>
|
||
<p class="text-yellow-400 mb-4 text-sm"><strong class="font-bold">重要提示：</strong>以下数据显示，市场交易的“出口管制”概念存在显著混淆，大量涨停股（如中国稀土）的驱动因素是稀土、镓锗等其他关键矿产的出口管制，而非芬太尼。这验证了前文提到的“概念混淆”风险。</p>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra-zebra bg-transparent text-sm">
|
||
<thead class="font-fui text-cyan-300">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>异动日期</th>
|
||
<th>涨幅</th>
|
||
<th>核心原因摘要</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>辰欣药业 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603367" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">603367</a>)</th><td>2025-07-22</td><td>9.98%</td><td>因“芬太尼原料药FDA零缺陷+制剂ANDA获批”打开美国市场，叠加右美托咪定集采放量与业绩超预期，形成基本面与政策共振。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>人福医药 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600079" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600079</a>)</th><td>2025-09-03</td><td>9.99%</td><td>湖北省上调麻醉药支付标准、宜昌人福FDA零483通过、麻醉镇痛品种纳入国家参比制剂目录三大利好集中兑现。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>美之高 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=920765" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">920765</a>)</th><td>2025-10-23</td><td>6.95%</td><td class="text-yellow-400">典型的由宏观政策预期驱动的主题投机行情。核心催化是“芬太尼替代”概念兴起，但公司主营业务暂无。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>中国稀土 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000831" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000831</a>)</th><td>2025-10-09</td><td>9.97%</td><td class="text-red-400">核心驱动为稀土出口管制政策全面升级，强化中国稀土全球定价权。与芬太尼无关。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>中色股份 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000758" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000758</a>)</th><td>2025-07-11</td><td>10.06%</td><td class="text-red-400">商务部宣布对镓实施出口管制，公司拥有国内最大镓产能且获出口资质。与芬太尼无关。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>北方稀土 (<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600111" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600111</a>)</th><td>2025-10-09</td><td>10.0%</td><td class="text-red-400">境外稀土全产业链出口管制，锁定海外轻稀土供给，公司作为国内龙头直接受益。与芬太尼无关。</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function () {
|
||
var chartDom = document.getElementById('marketShareChart');
|
||
var myChart = echarts.init(chartDom);
|
||
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|
||
|
||
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|
||
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|
||
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|
||
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|
||
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|
||
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|
||
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|
||
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|
||
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|
||
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|
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|
||
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|
||
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|
||
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
||
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|
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|
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|
||
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|
||
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|
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|
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|
||
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|
||
fontWeight: 'bold',
|
||
fontFamily: 'Oxanium'
|
||
},
|
||
b: {
|
||
color: '#e0e0e0',
|
||
fontSize: 12,
|
||
padding: [5, 0]
|
||
},
|
||
c: {
|
||
color: '#888',
|
||
fontSize: 10
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
emphasis: {
|
||
label: {
|
||
show: true
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
labelLine: {
|
||
show: false
|
||
},
|
||
data: [
|
||
{ value: 66, name: '芬太尼类药品', itemStyle: { color: new echarts.graphic.LinearGradient(0, 0, 0, 1, [{ offset: 0, color: '#00BFFF' }, { offset: 1, color: '#0061FF' }]) } },
|
||
{ value: 34, name: '其他麻醉药', itemStyle: { color: 'rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1)' } }
|
||
],
|
||
silent: true
|
||
}
|
||
]
|
||
};
|
||
|
||
option && myChart.setOption(option);
|
||
window.addEventListener('resize', myChart.resize);
|
||
});
|
||
</script>
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html> |