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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
<head>
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<title>OCS光电路交换机 - 深度行研报告</title>
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@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Noto+Sans+SC:wght@300;400;500;700&display=swap');
body {
font-family: 'Noto Sans SC', sans-serif;
background-color: #0d0f1a;
color: #e0e0e0;
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position: relative;
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</head>
<body class="min-h-screen">
<div class="container mx-auto px-4 py-8 md:px-8 md:py-16">
<!-- Header -->
<header class="text-center mb-24">
<h1 class="text-5xl md:text-7xl font-bold tracking-tight mb-4 bg-clip-text text-transparent bg-gradient-to-br from-white to-slate-400">
OCS光电路交换机
</h1>
<h2 class="text-2xl md:text-3xl font-light text-slate-300">深度行研报告</h2>
<div class="mt-8 text-sm text-slate-500">
<p>北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent“价小前投研” 呈现</p>
<p class="mt-1">本报告为AI合成数据投资需谨慎。</p>
</div>
</header>
<!-- Insight Section -->
<section id="insight" class="mb-24">
<h2 class="section-title mb-12">概念洞察 (Insight)</h2>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 gap-8">
<!-- Core View & Logic -->
<div class="glass-card p-8 md:p-12">
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold text-violet-300 mb-6">核心观点与逻辑</h3>
<p class="text-lg text-slate-300 mb-4">OCS光电路交换机是AI算力基础设施为应对<strong class="text-cyan-300">“功耗墙”</strong><strong class="text-cyan-300">“通信墙”</strong>双重挑战而催生的必然技术演进。其核心驱动力源于谷歌等超大规模数据中心运营商的成功实践和降本增效的迫切需求。</p>
<p class="text-lg text-slate-300">当前,该概念正从<strong class="text-fuchsia-400">“谷歌专属方案”向“行业通用技术”</strong>过渡的初期阶段,市场潜力巨大,但短期内面临技术路线选择、成本控制和规模化应用的挑战,存在预期与现实的差距。</p>
</div>
<!-- Concept Events Timeline -->
<div class="glass-card p-8 md:p-12">
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold text-violet-300 mb-6">概念事件与时间轴</h3>
<ul class="space-y-4 text-slate-300">
<li class="flex items-start">
<svg class="w-6 h-6 text-cyan-400 mr-4 flex-shrink-0 mt-1" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M17.657 18.657A8 8 0 016.343 7.343S7 9 9 10c0-2 .5-5 2.986-7.014A8.003 8.003 0 0117.657 18.657z"></path><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M9.879 16.121A3 3 0 1012.005 18h-2.126z"></path></svg>
<div><strong class="text-white">技术奠基与早期探索:</strong>OCS并非全新技术谷歌在其Jupiter数据中心网络架构中开创性地大规模应用以降低成本和功耗。</div>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<svg class="w-6 h-6 text-cyan-400 mr-4 flex-shrink-0 mt-1" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M13 10V3L4 14h7v7l9-11h-7z"></path></svg>
<div><strong class="text-white">AI时代应用引爆点 (约2023年)</strong>谷歌在其TPU v4/v5p算力集群中大规模部署OCS构建3D Torus等灵活拓扑网络成功提升集群计算效率将OCS技术推向市场前台。</div>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<svg class="w-6 h-6 text-cyan-400 mr-4 flex-shrink-0 mt-1" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M9 3v2m6-2v2M9 19v2m6-2v2M5 9H3m2 6H3m18-6h-2m2 6h-2M12 6V3m0 18v-3M5.636 5.636l-1.414-1.414M19.778 19.778l-1.414-1.414M18.364 5.636l1.414-1.414M4.222 19.778l1.414-1.414M12 12a5 5 0 100-10 5 5 0 000 10z"></path></svg>
<div><strong class="text-white">产业链催化与商业化加速 (2024-2025年)</strong>Lumentum/Coherent宣布获订单并于2025Q2开始批量交付标志商业化加速。Meta、微软等巨头跟进测试。</div>
</li>
<li class="flex items-start">
<svg class="w-6 h-6 text-cyan-400 mr-4 flex-shrink-0 mt-1" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M12 6V4m0 16v-2m8-8h-2M4 12H2m15.364-5.364l-1.414-1.414M6.05 18.05l-1.414-1.414m13.439 0l-1.414 1.414M6.05 6.05l-1.414 1.414"></path></svg>
<div><strong class="text-white">行业标准化启动 (2025年8月)</strong>OCP联盟成立OCS项目组谷歌、微软、Meta、英伟达等巨头共同推动技术开放和标准化为广泛应用铺平道路。</div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<!-- Core Logic & Expectation Gaps -->
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
<div class="glass-card p-8">
<h4 class="text-xl font-bold text-violet-300 mb-4">核心驱动力:物理定律 & 经济效益</h4>
<ul class="space-y-3 text-slate-300 list-disc list-inside">
<li><strong class="text-white">物理瓶颈:</strong>解决传统电交换机的功耗、延迟、散热三大障碍。OCS功耗仅为1/10延迟低数个数量级。</li>
<li><strong class="text-white">经济效益:</strong>全生命周期成本(TCO)优势显著。谷歌应用后架构成本降30%功耗降41%,且硬件寿命更长。</li>
<li><strong class="text-white">架构灵活性:</strong>支持网络拓扑动态重构可将AI任务计算时间缩短20%-34%。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="glass-card p-8">
<h4 class="text-xl font-bold text-violet-300 mb-4">预期差分析:宏大叙事 vs. 产业现实</h4>
<ul class="space-y-3 text-slate-300 list-disc list-inside">
<li><strong class="text-white">商用广度:</strong>除谷歌外,多数巨头仍处“实验室测试”阶段,市场可能高估了短期渗透速度。</li>
<li><strong class="text-white">技术成熟度:</strong>毫秒级重配置延迟是硬伤,限制了应用场景。量产良率与成本控制仍是待解难题。</li>
<li><strong class="text-white">对光模块影响:</strong><span class="text-amber-300 font-bold">认知偏差!</span>OCS部署非但不会减少反而会因新网络架构<strong class="text-amber-300">导致光模块用量不降反增</strong></li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Catalysts & Path Forward -->
<div class="glass-card p-8 md:p-12">
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold text-violet-300 mb-6">关键催化剂与发展路径</h3>
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
<div>
<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-cyan-300 mb-3">近期催化剂 (未来3-6个月)</h4>
<ul class="space-y-2 text-slate-300">
<li><strong>1. Lumentum/Coherent财报验证</strong>首次以营收和指引量化市场真实增速。</li>
<li><strong>2. Meta/微软/亚马逊订单落地:</strong>标志着从单一客户依赖走向行业普及。</li>
<li><strong>3. OCP OCS标准草案发布</strong>技术大规模推广的前提。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-cyan-300 mb-3">长期发展路径</h4>
<ul class="space-y-2 text-slate-300">
<li><strong>第一阶段 (当前-2026)</strong>巨头引领,技术卡位 (MEMS为主)。</li>
<li><strong>第二阶段 (2026-2028)</strong>标准确立,成本下降 (LCoS/光波导起量)。</li>
<li><strong>第三阶段 (2028+)</strong>应用下沉,生态成熟 (渗透至二线云和智算中心)。</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Supply Chain -->
<div class="glass-card p-8 md:p-12">
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold text-violet-300 mb-6">产业链深度剖析</h3>
<div class="space-y-8">
<div>
<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-fuchsia-400 mb-3">上游:核心元器件与材料</h4>
<p class="text-slate-400">MEMS芯片、光学元件(准直器/环形器/FAU)、光芯片/模块、数模转换芯片等。</p>
</div>
<div>
<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-sky-400 mb-3">中游:整机代工与解决方案</h4>
<p class="text-slate-400">为国际巨头代工或自主研发整机产品。</p>
</div>
<div>
<h4 class="text-lg font-semibold text-emerald-400 mb-3">下游:终端用户</h4>
<p class="text-slate-400">谷歌、微软、Meta、英伟达、亚马逊等云/AI巨头。</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="mt-8 border-t border-slate-700 pt-8">
<h4 class="text-xl font-bold text-violet-300 mb-4">核心玩家对比</h4>
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-6 text-sm">
<div class="p-4 border border-slate-700 rounded-2xl">
<h5 class="font-bold text-white mb-2">领导者梯队 (逻辑最纯粹)</h5>
<p><strong class="text-cyan-400">赛微电子:</strong> MEMS芯片代工龙头核心地位已验证。</p>
<p><strong class="text-cyan-400">腾景科技:</strong> 精密光学元组件“卖铲人”,需求刚性。</p>
</div>
<div class="p-4 border border-slate-700 rounded-2xl">
<h5 class="font-bold text-white mb-2">追赶者与潜力玩家</h5>
<p><strong class="text-sky-400">光库科技/德科立:</strong> 国际巨头代工厂,商业模式清晰。</p>
<p><strong class="text-sky-400">光迅科技/恒为科技:</strong> 自研整机,想象空间大,需订单验证。</p>
</div>
<div class="p-4 border border-slate-700 rounded-2xl">
<h5 class="font-bold text-white mb-2">差异化卡位者</h5>
<p><strong class="text-amber-400">帝奥微:</strong> 切入高价值数模转换芯片,国产替代空间巨大,高风险高回报。</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Risks & Conclusion -->
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
<div class="glass-card p-8">
<h4 class="text-xl font-bold text-red-400 mb-4">潜在风险与挑战</h4>
<ul class="space-y-3 text-slate-300 list-disc list-inside">
<li><strong class="text-white">技术风险:</strong>技术路径不确定性;毫秒级延迟的性能瓶颈。</li>
<li><strong class="text-white">商业化风险:</strong>高昂的初始成本阻碍渗透;规模化良率与成本控制。</li>
<li><strong class="text-white">信息交叉验证风险:</strong>市场规模预测数据严重冲突 (20亿 vs 千亿);商用阶段认知矛盾 (爆发期 vs 试验阶段)。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="glass-card p-8">
<h4 class="text-xl font-bold text-green-400 mb-4">综合结论与投资启示</h4>
<p class="text-slate-300 mb-4">OCS正处在从<strong class="text-white">“主题炒作”向“基本面驱动”过渡</strong>的关键时期。长期逻辑坚实,但市场情绪可能已领先于产业实际进展。</p>
<p class="text-slate-300 font-bold">最具投资价值的细分环节:</p>
<ul class="space-y-2 text-slate-300 list-disc list-inside">
<li><strong class="text-cyan-300">上游核心元器件:</strong>MEMS芯片(赛微电子)和高精密光学元件(腾景科技)是当前逻辑最顺、确定性最高的“卖水人”。</li>
<li><strong class="text-amber-300">差异化高价值芯片:</strong>如帝奥微的数模转换芯片,属高风险高赔率的卫星配置。</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Market Data & Forecasts -->
<section id="market-data" class="mb-24">
<h2 class="section-title mb-12">市场数据与预测</h2>
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
<!-- Bento Grid -->
<div class="lg:col-span-1 grid grid-cols-2 gap-6">
<div class="bento-item col-span-2">
<p class="text-sm text-slate-400">Google出货量预测</p>
<p class="text-3xl font-bold text-cyan-300">1.2-1.5万台</p>
<p class="text-sm text-slate-400">2025年2026年翻倍</p>
</div>
<div class="bento-item">
<p class="text-sm text-slate-400">单机价值量</p>
<p class="text-2xl font-bold text-fuchsia-300">$6.4万</p>
<p class="text-xs text-slate-400">(128*128通道)</p>
</div>
<div class="bento-item">
<p class="text-sm text-slate-400">LightCounting CAGR</p>
<p class="text-2xl font-bold text-fuchsia-300">28%</p>
<p class="text-xs text-slate-400">(2024-2029E)</p>
</div>
<div class="bento-item col-span-2">
<p class="text-sm text-slate-400">Coherent潜在增量市场</p>
<p class="text-3xl font-bold text-cyan-300">$20亿</p>
</div>
</div>
<!-- ECharts -->
<div class="lg:col-span-2 bento-item min-h-[400px]" id="market-size-chart"></div>
</div>
</section>
<!-- Supporting Evidence -->
<section id="evidence" class="mb-24" x-data="{ tab: 'news' }">
<h2 class="section-title mb-12">核心信息源摘要</h2>
<div class="tabs tabs-boxed justify-center mb-8 bg-transparent">
<a class="tab tab-lift tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'news' }" @click="tab = 'news'">新闻数据</a>
<a class="tab tab-lift tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'roadshow' }" @click="tab = 'roadshow'">路演纪要</a>
<a class="tab tab-lift tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'report' }" @click="tab = 'report'">研报精粹</a>
</div>
<div class="glass-card p-8 md:p-12 min-h-[500px]">
<!-- News Tab -->
<div x-show="tab === 'news'" x-transition>
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-violet-300 mb-6">新闻数据摘要</h3>
<div class="space-y-4 text-slate-300">
<p><strong>定义与优势:</strong>基于全光信号交换无需O/E/O转换核心优势在于低功耗(<1W/400G端口)低延迟(数十纳秒)高速率高扩展性</p>
<p><strong>市场驱动:</strong>AI革命和超大规模数据中心是主要驱动力。谷歌率先在TPU集群和Spine层大规模部署微软、Meta等巨头将加速渗透。</p>
<p><strong>技术路径:</strong>目前主流为MEMS(谷歌自研),液晶(DLC, Coherent)即将量产,光波导(德科立)为下一代方案。</p>
<p><strong>产业链:</strong>OCP联盟推动标准化。国际厂商Lumentum、Coherent已于2Q25开始批量交付。国内A股公司在整机代工(光库科技、德科立)、核心部件(赛微电子-MEMS, 腾景科技-光学器件)等环节深度参与。</p>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Roadshow Tab -->
<div x-show="tab === 'roadshow'" x-transition>
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-violet-300 mb-6">路演纪要摘要</h3>
<div class="space-y-4 text-slate-300">
<p><strong>市场认知修正:</strong>OCS并非谷歌独创是光通信领域已有技术。当前除谷歌外仍处于试验阶段商业化尚未成熟leaf-spine架构仍需电交换机辅助。</p>
<p><strong>核心价值:</strong>解决算力集群延迟与能耗问题,支持动态网络拓扑重构,故障恢复能力强 (毫秒级断链切换)。能耗下降40%成本较全电方案低30%。</p>
<p><strong>巨头动态:</strong>谷歌已部署超2万台24年预计新增万台以上。Meta、亚马逊等2025下半年起有望规模放量。Lumentum 64端口OCS Q4送样Coherent 300x300通道产品2025年量产。</p>
<p><strong>产业链验证:</strong>赛微电子(MEMS芯片)、腾景科技(准直器)、三维电子(硅光代工)、德科立(整机)等公司在产业链中的角色得到确认。</p>
</div>
</div>
<!-- Report Tab -->
<div x-show="tab === 'report'" x-transition>
<h3 class="text-xl font-bold text-violet-300 mb-6">研报精粹摘要</h3>
<div class="space-y-4 text-slate-300">
<p><strong>定位:</strong>下一代交换技术,解决大集群训练的带宽时延与动态拓扑问题,被视为国内交换机行业的战略高地。</p>
<p><strong>应用案例-谷歌TPU</strong>OCS使TPU集群可用率提高到约50%灵活组网架构计算时间缩短20%-34%。</p>
<p><strong>市场规模预测:</strong>预计2031年全球市场规模达20.22亿美元2025-2031 CAGR 17.12%。北美是最大市场,中国增速最快。</p>
<p><strong>技术路线预测:</strong>当前MEMS方案占主导(52%)但预计到2031年DirectLightDBS方案将增长至58.62%,成为主导类型。</p>
<p><strong>核心部件:</strong>MEMS阵列、FR光模块、环形器、波分复用器、光纤阵列(FAU)等。</p>
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</div>
</section>
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<h2 class="section-title mb-12">产业链核心标的</h2>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
<table class="table w-full">
<thead class="text-base text-slate-300">
<tr>
<th class="bg-transparent">股票名称</th>
<th class="bg-transparent">股票代码</th>
<th class="bg-transparent">核心逻辑 / 原因</th>
<th class="bg-transparent">产业链环节 / 标签</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50">
<td class="font-bold text-white">赛微电子</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300456" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">300456</a></td>
<td>MEMS芯片代工市占率原全球第一为谷歌供应MEMS-OCS核心组件已获批量采购订单。</td>
<td class="font-semibold text-fuchsia-400">上游-MEMS芯片</td>
</tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50">
<td class="font-bold text-white">腾景科技</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688195" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">688195</a></td>
<td>OCS光学模组(准直器/环形器/滤光片)通过Coherent间接供应谷歌单机价值量高。</td>
<td class="font-semibold text-fuchsia-400">上游-光学元件</td>
</tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50">
<td class="font-bold text-white">德科立</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688205" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">688205</a></td>
<td>Lumentum代工商负责OCS整机代工光波导方案整机送样谷歌、NV。</td>
<td class="font-semibold text-sky-400">中游-整机代工</td>
</tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50">
<td class="font-bold text-white">光库科技</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300620" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">300620</a></td>
<td>子公司武汉光库为Calient代工OCS产品间接供应谷歌。微连接产品应用于OCS模块。</td>
<td class="font-semibold text-sky-400">中游-整机代工/上游-部件</td>
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<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50">
<td class="font-bold text-white">天孚通信</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300394" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">300394</a></td>
<td>FAU光纤阵列单元市占率A股第一是OCS系统关键无源器件供应商。</td>
<td class="font-semibold text-fuchsia-400">上游-光学元件</td>
</tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50">
<td class="font-bold text-white">恒为科技</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603496" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">603496</a></td>
<td>宣称中国首家、世界第二家推出光交换机整机产品,正处于市场推广阶段。</td>
<td class="font-semibold text-sky-400">中游-整机解决方案</td>
</tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50">
<td class="font-bold text-white">帝奥微</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688381" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">688381</a></td>
<td>正在开发应用于OCS交换机的高价值量数模转换产品国产替代空间大。</td>
<td class="font-semibold text-amber-400">上游-高价值芯片</td>
</tr>
<tr class="hover:bg-slate-800/50">
<td class="font-bold text-white">凌云光</td>
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688400" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">688400</a></td>
<td>MEMS微镜方案送样微软Azure AI超算布局OCS全光交换解决方案。</td>
<td class="font-semibold text-fuchsia-400">上游-MEMS/中游-解决方案</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold text-slate-300 mt-16 mb-8 text-center">相关概念股异动分析</h3>
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-4 gap-6">
<div class="bento-item">
<div class="flex justify-between items-baseline">
<div class="font-bold text-lg text-white">光迅科技</div>
<div class="text-sm text-green-400">+10.0%</div>
</div>
<div class="text-xs text-slate-400 mb-3">2025-08-20</div>
<p class="text-sm text-slate-300">涨停核心原因在多篇研报中被明确列为OCS整机制造商与行业爆发机遇高度契合叠加券商密集推荐。</p>
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<div class="bento-item">
<div class="flex justify-between items-baseline">
<div class="font-bold text-lg text-white">恒为科技</div>
<div class="text-sm text-green-400">+5.19%</div>
</div>
<div class="text-xs text-slate-400 mb-3">2025-09-10</div>
<p class="text-sm text-slate-300">核心驱动公布OCS产品详细方案宣称“中国首家、世界第二家”技术突破引发市场对其算力基建竞争力的强烈预期。</p>
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<div class="bento-item">
<div class="flex justify-between items-baseline">
<div class="font-bold text-lg text-white">帝奥微</div>
<div class="text-sm text-green-400">+11.60%</div>
</div>
<div class="text-xs text-slate-400 mb-3">2025-09-22</div>
<p class="text-sm text-slate-300">核心驱动公告正在开发应用于OCS的高价值数模转换芯片切入被TI/ADI垄断的市场国产替代想象空间巨大。</p>
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<div class="bento-item">
<div class="flex justify-between items-baseline">
<div class="font-bold text-lg text-white">瑞斯康达</div>
<div class="text-sm text-green-400">+10.02%</div>
</div>
<div class="text-xs text-slate-400 mb-3">2025-11-25</div>
<p class="text-sm text-slate-300">涨停核心原因市场传闻其子公司“配合谷歌开发800G OCS光交换机”题材想象空间巨大吸引游资炒作。</p>
</div>
</div>
</section>
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