380 lines
28 KiB
HTML
380 lines
28 KiB
HTML
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<title>地平线概念 - 深度投研报告</title>
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<body class="min-h-screen font-sans antialiased">
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
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<header class="text-center mb-12">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold tracking-wider fui-title text-slate-100">地平线概念</h1>
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<h2 class="text-xl md:text-2xl text-slate-300 mt-2 tracking-wide">深度投研报告</h2>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-500 mt-4 max-w-2xl mx-auto">
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北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现，本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。
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</p>
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</header>
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<main class="grid grid-cols-12 gap-6">
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<!-- Core Insight -->
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<section class="col-span-12 lg:col-span-8 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 order-1">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold mb-6 fui-header">核心逻辑与市场认知</h3>
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<div class="space-y-6 text-slate-300">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-emerald-400 mb-2">核心观点摘要</h4>
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<p>地平线概念正处在一个由<strong class="text-white">中低阶市场领导者</strong>向<strong class="text-white">高阶市场挑战者</strong>转型的关键拐点。其核心驱动力在于独特的 “软硬一体+开放生态” 商业模式，这使其在“智驾平权”的行业趋势下，成为主机厂除英伟达和华为之外最具性价比和灵活性的选择。未来潜力巨大，但短期（2025年）的增长主要由中阶方案放量驱动，高阶方案的业绩兑现（2026年及以后）是决定其能否重塑竞争格局并实现盈利的关键。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-emerald-400 mb-2">三大核心驱动力</h4>
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<ul class="space-y-3 list-disc list-inside">
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<li><strong>技术路径优势 (软硬一体):</strong> 算法定义硬件，自研BPU架构为智能驾驶算法量身定制。算力利用率高达<strong class="text-white">约85%</strong>，远超竞品GPU的<strong class="text-white">30%</strong>，实现极致性价比，完美契合汽车行业成本敏感性。</li>
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<li><strong>商业模式优势 (开放生态):</strong> 定位Tier-2，模式灵活，提供黑盒与白盒方案，赋能主机厂自研。这种“全维利他”策略与华为的封闭生态、英伟达的硬件强势形成差异化竞争，赢得大众、比亚迪等广泛客户。</li>
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<li><strong>产业趋势顺应 (智驾平权):</strong> 龙头车企正将高阶智驾功能下探至10-20万元主流市场。地平线的<strong class="text-white">征程6E/M芯片</strong>凭借高性价比，成为实现“智驾平权”的核心供应商，是2025年业绩爆发的最确定逻辑。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-emerald-400 mb-2">市场热度与预期差分析</h4>
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<p class="mb-3">当前市场对地平线概念热度极高，整体情绪乐观但存在分歧。乐观者看好其挑战英伟达垄断地位，谨慎者则关注其高阶方案体验、盈利拐点及高毛利率的可持续性。</p>
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<div class="border-l-4 border-amber-400 pl-4 text-sm">
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<p class="font-semibold text-amber-300">增长结构预期差：</p>
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<p>市场焦点在高阶芯片J6P，但<strong class="text-white">2025年业绩核心贡献将来自中阶的J6E/M芯片</strong>（预计出货200万片），高阶故事与近期业绩存在时间节奏差。</p>
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<p class="mt-2 font-semibold text-amber-300">盈利拐点预期差：</p>
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<p>宏大愿景背后，盈利拐点预计在<strong class="text-white">2027-2028年</strong>（收入需达80亿元以上），市场可能对短期持续亏损的“阵痛期”预期不足。</p>
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<p class="mt-2 font-semibold text-amber-300">机器人业务预期差：</p>
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<p>地瓜机器人虽受热捧，但路演数据显示<strong class="text-white">2030年人形机器人业务贡献有限</strong>（预计收入1亿元），短期无法对估值形成实质性支撑。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Financials & Market Performance -->
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<section class="col-span-12 md:col-span-6 lg:col-span-4 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 order-2">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold mb-4 fui-header">市场表现与财务数据</h3>
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<div id="revenueChart" class="w-full h-48 mb-4"></div>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-slate-300 text-sm">
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<li><strong class="text-sky-300">市场份额:</strong> 2024上半年中国自主车厂ADAS市占率<strong class="text-white">35.9%</strong>，位列第一。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-sky-300">出货量:</strong> 累计出货突破<strong class="text-white">800万颗</strong>，预计2025年跨越千万大关。征程6系列2025年预计出货<strong class="text-white">400万-700万片</strong>。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-sky-300">毛利率:</strong> 2024上半年综合毛利率高达<strong class="text-white">79%</strong>，软件业务毛利超90%。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-sky-300">盈利预期:</strong> 研发费用率高企（1H24为152%），预计<strong class="text-white">2027-2028年</strong>实现盈亏平衡。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-sky-300">现金储备:</strong> IPO后在手现金<strong class="text-white">超百亿元</strong>，财务状况健康。</li>
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</ul>
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</section>
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<!-- Catalysts & Path -->
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<section class="col-span-12 md:col-span-6 lg:col-span-4 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 order-3">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold mb-4 fui-header">催化剂与发展路径</h3>
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<div class="space-y-4 text-slate-300">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-violet-300 mb-2">近期催化剂 (3-6个月)</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside text-sm space-y-1">
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<li><strong class="text-white">征程6量产交付 (2025 Q3):</strong> 首搭奇瑞星途车型，市场反馈是第一次大考。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">比亚迪车型铺货:</strong> 搭载J6E/M的爆款车型销量是验证基本盘的关键数据。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">纳入港股通 (2025.05.26):</strong> 提升流动性与估值中枢。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">新高阶车型定点:</strong> 突破客户结构天花板的重要信号。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-violet-300 mb-2">长期发展路径</h4>
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<ol class="list-decimal list-inside text-sm space-y-2">
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<li><strong class="text-white">阶段一 (2025):</strong> 智驾普惠，中阶为王。巩固10-20万价格区间统治地位。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">阶段二 (2026-27):</strong> 高阶突破，全球萌芽。J6P冲击百万级出货，与大众合作车型量产，实现海外收入突破。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">阶段三 (2028+):</strong> 平台生态，多域融合。推超2000TOPS芯片及舱驾一体方案，成平台型公司。</li>
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</ol>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Products & Tech -->
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<section class="col-span-12 lg:col-span-6 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 order-4">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold mb-6 fui-header">核心产品与技术</h3>
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<div x-data="{ tab: 'chips' }" class="w-full">
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<div class="tabs tabs-boxed bg-slate-800/50 mb-4">
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<a class="tab tab-sm sm:tab-md flex-1" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'chips' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'chips'">智驾芯片 · 征程系列</a>
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<a class="tab tab-sm sm:tab-md flex-1" :class="{ 'tab-active': tab === 'solution' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'solution'">高阶方案 · HSD</a>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'chips'" class="space-y-4 text-slate-300">
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<p>覆盖从L2到L4的全系列产品，以高算力利用率著称，是“智驾平权”的硬件基石。</p>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 sm:grid-cols-2 gap-4 text-sm">
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<div class="p-4 bg-slate-800/40 rounded-xl border border-white/10">
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<h5 class="font-bold text-slate-100">征程6E / 6M (中阶)</h5>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-400">80 / 128 TOPS</p>
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<p class="mt-2">主攻10-20万价位L2+~L2++市场，是2025年放量核心，性价比极高。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-slate-800/40 rounded-xl border border-white/10">
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<h5 class="font-bold text-slate-100">征程6P (高阶)</h5>
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<p class="text-xs text-slate-400">560 TOPS</p>
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<p class="mt-2">对标英伟达Orin，支持端到端算法部署。软硬一体方案ASP约<strong class="text-white">800美元</strong>。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'solution'" class="space-y-4 text-slate-300">
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<p><strong class="text-white">Horizon SuperDrive (HSD)</strong> 是地平线的L2+全场景城区辅助驾驶系统，旨在提供“类人”驾乘体验，摆脱高精地图依赖。</p>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-sm">
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<li><strong class="text-white">技术架构:</strong> 采用<strong class="text-amber-300">端到端</strong>处理架构并加入强化学习技术，相比传统模型延迟降低<strong class="text-white">25%-50%</strong>。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">市场定位:</strong> 提供除特斯拉、华为ADS之外的高性价比选择，有望成为中国高阶智驾技术基准。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-white">量产落地:</strong> 2025年Q3将与<strong class="text-sky-300">奇瑞星途</strong>合作车型首发量产，并与<strong class="text-sky-300">大众汽车</strong>达成合作，2026年量产。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Ecosystem -->
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<section class="col-span-12 lg:col-span-6 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 order-5">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold mb-6 fui-header">合作生态与量产落地</h3>
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<div class="space-y-4 text-slate-300 text-sm">
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<div class="p-4 bg-slate-800/40 rounded-xl border border-white/10">
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<h5 class="font-bold text-slate-100 mb-2">整车厂 (OEM)</h5>
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<div class="flex flex-wrap gap-2 text-xs">
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<span class="badge badge-outline border-green-400 text-green-300">比亚迪 (核心伙伴)</span>
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<span class="badge badge-outline border-blue-400 text-blue-300">大众 (合资公司)</span>
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<span class="badge badge-outline border-orange-400 text-orange-300">奇瑞 (HSD首发)</span>
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<span class="badge badge-outline border-purple-400 text-purple-300">理想汽车</span>
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<span class="badge badge-outline border-cyan-400 text-cyan-300">上汽集团</span>
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<span class="badge badge-outline border-yellow-400 text-yellow-300">吉利</span>
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<span class="badge badge-outline border-red-400 text-red-300">深蓝汽车</span>
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</div>
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<p class="mt-2">已获超<strong class="text-white">20家</strong>车企平台化定点，定点车型超<strong class="text-white">400款</strong>。与比亚迪深度绑定，J6系列将落地其多款爆款车型。与大众成立合资公司酷睿程，成为其在华唯一ADAS核心研发平台。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-slate-800/40 rounded-xl border border-white/10">
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<h5 class="font-bold text-slate-100 mb-2">全球Tier-1供应商 & 出海</h5>
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<div class="flex flex-wrap gap-2 text-xs">
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<span class="badge badge-outline border-gray-300 text-gray-200">采埃孚 (ZF)</span>
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<span class="badge badge-outline border-gray-300 text-gray-200">博世 (Bosch)</span>
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<span class="badge badge-outline border-gray-300 text-gray-200">大陆集团</span>
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<span class="badge badge-outline border-gray-300 text-gray-200">电装 (Denso)</span>
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</div>
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<p class="mt-2">成为首家同时获Bosch与ZF两大全球Tier-1核心项目的中国智驾芯片厂商。与博世合作的首个海外项目将于<strong class="text-white">2026年Q1量产</strong>，标志其全球化战略进入实质性阶段。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Risks & Challenges -->
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<section class="col-span-12 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 order-6">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold mb-6 fui-header text-rose-400">潜在风险与挑战</h3>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-4 gap-4 text-slate-300 text-sm">
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<div class="p-4 bg-rose-900/20 rounded-xl">
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<h5 class="font-bold text-rose-300">技术风险</h5>
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<p class="mt-2">HSD端到端模型在极端场景(Corner Case)下的安全与舒适性，尚需大规模量产后的市场检验。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-rose-900/20 rounded-xl">
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<h5 class="font-bold text-rose-300">商业化风险</h5>
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<p class="mt-2">高阶方案价格不菲，在激烈价格战中渗透率和盈利能力面临挑战。客户集中度高（前五大客户收入占比超60%），对比亚迪等大客户依赖度高。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-rose-900/20 rounded-xl">
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<h5 class="font-bold text-rose-300">竞争风险</h5>
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<p class="mt-2">英伟达、高通加速本土化，华为软硬全栈能力仍是最大威胁，部分主机厂（如理想）也在布局自研芯片，市场格局远未稳固。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 bg-rose-900/20 rounded-xl">
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<h5 class="font-bold text-rose-300">供应链与政策风险</h5>
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<p class="mt-2">先进工艺（如5nm）依赖外部代工且需申请许可，地缘政治是长期存在的供应链安全风险。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Associated Stocks -->
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<section class="col-span-12 glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8 order-7">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-semibold mb-6 fui-header">地平线概念产业链相关公司</h3>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="table table-sm w-full">
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<thead>
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<tr class="border-b border-slate-700 text-slate-300">
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<th>股票名称</th>
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<th>股票代码</th>
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<th>关联原因</th>
|
||
<th>产业链环节</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<!-- Data from the provided JSON -->
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-800 hover:bg-slate-800/50">
|
||
<td>中科创达</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300496" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">300496</a></td>
|
||
<td>与地平线合资创建聚创智行，专注于智能驾驶赛道，深度绑定</td>
|
||
<td class="text-purple-400">深度战略伙伴</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-800 hover:bg-slate-800/50">
|
||
<td>天准科技</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688003" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">688003</a></td>
|
||
<td>征程5/6芯片官方授权硬件IDH及量产合作伙伴</td>
|
||
<td class="text-purple-400">深度战略伙伴</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-800 hover:bg-slate-800/50">
|
||
<td>均胜电子</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600699" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">600699</a></td>
|
||
<td>发布基于地平线的智能驾驶域控制器</td>
|
||
<td class="text-cyan-400">Tier-1/方案商</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-800 hover:bg-slate-800/50">
|
||
<td>华阳集团</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002906" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">002906</a></td>
|
||
<td>基于地平线多种芯片方案的智驾域控相关业务推进中</td>
|
||
<td class="text-cyan-400">Tier-1/方案商</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-800 hover:bg-slate-800/50">
|
||
<td>光庭信息</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301221" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">301221</a></td>
|
||
<td>基于地平线J5、J6等芯片推出行泊一体域控解决方案</td>
|
||
<td class="text-cyan-400">Tier-1/方案商</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-800 hover:bg-slate-800/50">
|
||
<td>立讯精密</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002475" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">002475</a></td>
|
||
<td>生产地平线J6E行泊一体域控制器、J3前视一体机</td>
|
||
<td class="text-cyan-400">Tier-1/方案商</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-800 hover:bg-slate-800/50">
|
||
<td>奥比中光</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688322" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">688322</a></td>
|
||
<td>与地平线、地瓜机器人达成战略合作，共同打通机器人“眼”与“脑”</td>
|
||
<td class="text-purple-400">机器人战略合作</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-800 hover:bg-slate-800/50">
|
||
<td>四维图新</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002405" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">002405</a></td>
|
||
<td>与地平线征程全系列产品全面战略合作</td>
|
||
<td class="text-blue-400">生态合作</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-800 hover:bg-slate-800/50">
|
||
<td>联创电子</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002036" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">002036</a></td>
|
||
<td>作为ADAS镜头主力供应商，战略合作地平线</td>
|
||
<td class="text-emerald-400">上游供应商</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-800 hover:bg-slate-800/50">
|
||
<td>伟测科技</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688372" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">688372</a></td>
|
||
<td>高可靠性芯片测试领域客户包括地平线</td>
|
||
<td class="text-emerald-400">上游供应商</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-800 hover:bg-slate-800/50">
|
||
<td>苏试试验</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300416" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">300416</a></td>
|
||
<td>子公司上海宜特半导体检测业务客户覆盖地平线</td>
|
||
<td class="text-emerald-400">上游供应商</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-slate-800 hover:bg-slate-800/50">
|
||
<td>上汽集团</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600104" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">600104</a></td>
|
||
<td>通过产业金融投资地平线，同时也是下游客户</td>
|
||
<td class="text-yellow-400">投资方/客户</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b-0 hover:bg-slate-800/50">
|
||
<td>华联股份</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000882" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-sky-400">000882</a></td>
|
||
<td>公司间接持有少量地平线股份</td>
|
||
<td class="text-yellow-400">投资方</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
document.addEventListener('alpine:init', () => {
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Alpine.data('chart', () => ({
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const revenueChart = echarts.init(this.$refs.chart);
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|
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revenueChart.setOption(option);
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window.addEventListener('resize', () => revenueChart.resize());
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}
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})
|
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</script>
|
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<div x-data="chart" x-init="init">
|
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<div id="revenueChart" x-ref="chart" class="w-full h-48 mb-4 hidden"></div> <!-- Hidden div to initialize chart -->
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html> |