457 lines
31 KiB
HTML
457 lines
31 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>深度研报：维生素概念</title>
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.10.2/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
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<script defer src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js"></script>
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<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
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<style>
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@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Manrope:wght@300;400;500;700&display=swap');
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body {
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font-family: 'Manrope', sans-serif;
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background-color: #020010;
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background-image:
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radial-gradient(at 20% 20%, hsla(285, 90%, 25%, 0.3) 0px, transparent 50%),
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radial-gradient(at 80% 0%, hsla(215, 90%, 30%, 0.3) 0px, transparent 50%),
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radial-gradient(at 0% 100%, hsla(339, 90%, 35%, 0.25) 0px, transparent 50%),
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radial-gradient(at 80% 100%, hsla(240, 90%, 45%, 0.25) 0px, transparent 50%),
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radial-gradient(at 0% 0%, hsla(343, 90%, 40%, 0.2) 0px, transparent 50%);
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color: #e0e0e0;
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}
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.glass {
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background: rgba(12, 10, 26, 0.4);
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backdrop-filter: blur(24px);
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-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(24px);
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border: 1px solid rgba(119, 119, 119, 0.1);
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box-shadow: 0 8px 32px 0 rgba(31, 38, 135, 0.1);
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}
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.glow-border {
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position: relative;
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}
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.glow-border::before {
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content: '';
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position: absolute;
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top: 0;
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left: 0;
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right: 0;
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bottom: 0;
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border-radius: 1.5rem; /* match with rounded-3xl */
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padding: 1px;
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, rgba(76, 209, 255, 0.3), rgba(255, 89, 243, 0.3));
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-webkit-mask:
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linear-gradient(#fff 0 0) content-box,
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linear-gradient(#fff 0 0);
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-webkit-mask-composite: xor;
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mask-composite: exclude;
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pointer-events: none;
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}
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.text-glow {
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text-shadow: 0 0 8px rgba(192, 219, 255, 0.6);
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}
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.bento-grid {
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display: grid;
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gap: 1.5rem;
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grid-template-columns: repeat(12, 1fr);
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}
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.grid-item {
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border-radius: 1.5rem;
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padding: 1.5rem;
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}
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h1, h2, h3 {
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font-weight: 700;
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="min-h-screen antialiased">
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8 max-w-screen-2xl">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center py-8">
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<h1 class="text-5xl md:text-7xl font-bold text-transparent bg-clip-text bg-gradient-to-r from-cyan-400 via-purple-500 to-pink-500 mb-4 text-glow">
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维生素概念 · 深度研报
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</h1>
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<p class="text-lg text-slate-400">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研”</p>
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</header>
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<main class="space-y-8">
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<!-- Core Insight Summary -->
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<section class="grid-item glass glow-border">
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<h2 class="text-3xl text-cyan-300 text-glow mb-4">核心观点摘要</h2>
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<p class="text-lg text-slate-200 leading-relaxed">
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维生素概念当前正处于由 <span class="text-pink-400 font-semibold">供给侧黑天鹅事件（巴斯夫不可抗力）</span> 引爆的强周期反转阶段，其核心驱动力是 <span class="text-purple-400 font-semibold">寡头垄断格局下的长期供给缺口</span> 与 <span class="text-sky-400 font-semibold">历史低位的渠道库存</span> 之间的尖锐矛盾。未来3-6个月，随着终端库存彻底出清，维生素A、E价格有望重拾升势，而相关龙头企业的盈利弹性将得到充分释放，使概念从事件驱动向业绩驱动切换。
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</p>
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</section>
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<!-- Event Timeline -->
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<section x-data="{}" class="space-y-6">
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<h2 class="text-4xl text-center text-slate-100 text-glow my-8">概念叙事：从供给扰动到市场引爆</h2>
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<div class="timeline timeline-snap-icon max-md:timeline-compact timeline-vertical">
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<!-- Background Period -->
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<div class="timeline-middle">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-cyan-400"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm.75-13a.75.75 0 00-1.5 0v5c0 .414.336.75.75.75h4a.75.75 0 000-1.5h-3.25V5z" clip-rule="evenodd"></path></svg>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-end md:text-end mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic text-slate-400">2023 - 2024 H1</time>
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<div class="text-2xl font-black text-cyan-300">背景期：去库存与减产保价</div>
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<p class="text-slate-300">行业处于产能过剩、价格低迷的周期底部。主要生产商采取“减产保价”策略，行业库存逐步去化至历史低位（约4周，远低于正常的2-3个月）。</p>
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</div>
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<hr class="bg-cyan-400"/>
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</div>
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<!-- Fermentation -->
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<hr class="bg-purple-400"/>
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<div class="timeline-middle">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-purple-400"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm.75-13a.75.75 0 00-1.5 0v5c0 .414.336.75.75.75h4a.75.75 0 000-1.5h-3.25V5z" clip-rule="evenodd"></path></svg>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-start md:text-end mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic text-slate-400">2024 Q2-Q3</time>
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<div class="text-2xl font-black text-purple-300">初步发酵：供给端多点扰动</div>
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<p class="text-slate-300">帝斯曼因天气停运并计划剥离业务；浙江医药发生事故后检修；花园生物通过控制上游原料推高VD3价格。供给侧收紧预期增强。</p>
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</div>
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<hr class="bg-purple-400"/>
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</div>
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<!-- Detonation -->
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<hr class="bg-pink-500"/>
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<div class="timeline-middle">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-pink-500"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm.75-13a.75.75 0 00-1.5 0v5c0 .414.336.75.75.75h4a.75.75 0 000-1.5h-3.25V5z" clip-rule="evenodd"></path></svg>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-end md:text-end mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic text-slate-400">2024年7月29日</time>
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<div class="text-2xl font-black text-pink-400">引爆点：巴斯夫不可抗力</div>
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<p class="text-slate-300">全球巨头巴斯夫德国工厂发生火灾，导致VA和VE关键中间体供应中断，公司随即宣布不可抗力，成为引爆市场的直接导火索。</p>
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</div>
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<hr class="bg-pink-500"/>
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</div>
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<!-- Climax -->
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<hr class="bg-red-500"/>
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<div class="timeline-middle">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-red-500"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm.75-13a.75.75 0 00-1.5 0v5c0 .414.336.75.75.75h4a.75.75 0 000-1.5h-3.25V5z" clip-rule="evenodd"></path></svg>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-start md:text-end mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic text-slate-400">2024年8月</time>
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<div class="text-2xl font-black text-red-400">市场高潮：价格飙升</div>
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<p class="text-slate-300">市场极度恐慌，下游疯狂抢购。VA价格从约125元/kg飙升至310元/kg，VE价格从约80元/kg涨至160元/kg。国内厂商普遍停产停报，加剧看涨情绪。</p>
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</div>
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<hr class="bg-red-500"/>
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</div>
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<!-- Adjustment -->
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<hr class="bg-sky-400"/>
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<div class="timeline-middle">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-sky-400"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm.75-13a.75.75 0 00-1.5 0v5c0 .414.336.75.75.75h4a.75.75 0 000-1.5h-3.25V5z" clip-rule="evenodd"></path></svg>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-end md:text-end">
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<time class="font-mono italic text-slate-400">2024年9月至今</time>
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<div class="text-2xl font-black text-sky-300">分化与调整：预期重构</div>
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<p class="text-slate-300">恐慌情绪缓解，渠道商获利了结导致价格回调。随后巴斯夫明确复产时间表（VA: 25年4月, VE: 25年7月），长达9-12个月的供给缺口被坐实，市场看涨预期再度升温。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Price Chart -->
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<section class="grid-item glass glow-border">
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<h2 class="text-3xl text-purple-300 text-glow mb-4">VA/VE 价格风暴：事件驱动下的剧烈波动</h2>
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<div id="priceChart" style="width: 100%; height: 500px;"></div>
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</section>
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<!-- Core Logic & Analysis -->
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<section class="space-y-6">
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<h2 class="text-4xl text-center text-slate-100 text-glow my-8">核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h2>
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<!-- Core Drivers -->
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<div class="grid-item glass glow-border col-span-12 lg:col-span-8 space-y-4">
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<h3 class="text-2xl text-cyan-300">核心驱动力</h3>
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<div class="p-4 border border-slate-700 rounded-xl bg-slate-900/30">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-lg text-slate-100">供给冲击下的寡头议价权</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-300">VA/VE是典型寡头市场。巴斯夫（VA市占率~30%）长达9-12个月的停产，造成巨大、刚性的全球供给缺口，赋予中国企业极强定价权。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 border border-slate-700 rounded-xl bg-slate-900/30">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-lg text-slate-100">库存周期触底</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-300">事件前行业库存仅4周，贸易商库存1.6个月，远低于正常水平。低库存意味着价格传导迅速，下游缓冲能力弱。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 border border-slate-700 rounded-xl bg-slate-900/30">
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<h4 class="font-semibold text-lg text-slate-100">需求端韧性</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-300">下游饲料业（占比~80%）需求刚性。2024年国内生猪养殖盈利好转（Q3盈利~600元/头），增强了对涨价的承受力。同时海外补库需求强劲。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Expectation Gap -->
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<div class="grid-item glass glow-border col-span-12 lg:col-span-4 space-y-4">
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<h3 class="text-2xl text-pink-300">预期差分析</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3 list-disc list-inside text-slate-300">
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<li><strong class="text-slate-100">供给缺口持续性：</strong>市场初期低估了巴斯夫事件严重性，而长达近一年的供给真空期是最大的预期差来源，支撑价格长期高位运行。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-slate-100">价格走势“W”型：</strong>市场普遍预期一路上涨，但8月底的回调超预期。这是渠道库存博弈的健康调整，而非趋势反转。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-slate-100">企业弹性认知：</strong>市场普遍知晓龙头受益，但对具体弹性认知不足。新闻明确指出“浙江医药是本轮涨价中业绩弹性最大的企业”，VE价格每涨10元/kg，利润弹性约3亿。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Catalysts & Future Path -->
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<section class="space-y-6">
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<h2 class="text-4xl text-center text-slate-100 text-glow my-8">关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h2>
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<div class="grid-item glass glow-border col-span-12 md:col-span-6">
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<h3 class="text-2xl text-purple-300">近期催化剂 (未来3-6个月)</h3>
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<ul class="mt-4 space-y-3">
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<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-purple-400 mr-2">◆</span><p><strong class="text-slate-100">龙头企业Q3/Q4财报：</strong>用财务数据验证业绩弹性，是概念从业绩预期转向业绩兑现的关键。</p></li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-purple-400 mr-2">◆</span><p><strong class="text-slate-100">厂家新一轮提价公告：</strong>渠道库存消耗后，龙头厂商新一轮提价将直接刺激市场情绪。</p></li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-purple-400 mr-2">◆</span><p><strong class="text-slate-100">月度海关出口数据：</strong>持续强劲的数据将不断验证海外补库需求的真实性。</p></li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="grid-item glass glow-border col-span-12 md:col-span-6">
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<h3 class="text-2xl text-sky-300">长期发展路径</h3>
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<ul class="mt-4 space-y-3">
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<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-sky-400 mr-2">◆</span><p><strong class="text-slate-100">当前至2025年中 (供给真空期)：</strong>VA/VE价格维持高位，龙头企业进入盈利巅峰期。</p></li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-sky-400 mr-2">◆</span><p><strong class="text-slate-100">2025年中至2026年 (格局重塑期)：</strong>巴斯夫复产，但万华化学等新玩家入局可能打破现有平衡。</p></li>
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<li class="flex items-start"><span class="text-sky-400 mr-2">◆</span><p><strong class="text-slate-100">长期 (中国主导期)：</strong>欧洲企业竞争力趋势性下降，产能将进一步向中国龙头集中。</p></li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Risks & Challenges -->
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<section class="grid-item glass glow-border">
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<h2 class="text-3xl text-red-400 text-glow mb-4">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<div>
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<h4 class="text-xl font-semibold text-red-300 mb-2">商业化风险</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside text-slate-300 space-y-1">
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<li><strong>需求抑制风险:</strong> 价格持续高位可能抑制下游需求或寻找替代品。</li>
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<li><strong>养殖周期风险:</strong> 若未来猪周期景气度下行，将削弱下游对高价的接受能力。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="text-xl font-semibold text-red-300 mb-2">政策与竞争风险</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside text-slate-300 space-y-1">
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<li><strong>新增产能冲击:</strong> 万华化学柠檬醛项目是VA产业链的长期最大潜在威胁。</li>
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<li><strong>供给恢复超预期:</strong> 巴斯夫修复速度快于预期，将缩短景气周期。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="text-xl font-semibold text-red-300 mb-2">信息交叉验证风险</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside text-slate-300 space-y-1">
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<li><strong>VA价格走势分歧:</strong> 9月新闻预测VA强劲反弹，但11月初研报数据显示仍在下跌，暗示VA去库存进程可能比预期复杂。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Key Players -->
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<section class="space-y-6">
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<h2 class="text-4xl text-center text-slate-100 text-glow my-8">产业链核心公司深度剖析</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-4 gap-6">
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<!-- 新和成 -->
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<div class="card glass shadow-xl transition-all duration-300 hover:scale-105 hover:shadow-cyan-500/20">
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<div class="card-body">
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<h3 class="card-title text-2xl text-slate-100">新和成 (002001)</h3>
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<div class="badge badge-primary badge-outline">绝对龙头</div><div class="badge badge-secondary badge-outline">攻守兼备</div>
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<p class="text-slate-300 mt-2">VA、VE产能全球第一，成本控制能力行业领先。本轮涨价的引领者和最大受益者之一。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<!-- 浙江医药 -->
|
||
<div class="card glass shadow-xl transition-all duration-300 hover:scale-105 hover:shadow-pink-500/20">
|
||
<div class="card-body">
|
||
<h3 class="card-title text-2xl text-slate-100">浙江医药 (600216)</h3>
|
||
<div class="badge badge-error badge-outline">弹性之王</div><div class="badge badge-warning badge-outline">核心受益者</div>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-300 mt-2">VE产能全球第二，VA产能全球前列。被多方数据指认为“业绩弹性最大的企业”，是本轮行情最纯粹的beta型标的。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<!-- 花园生物 -->
|
||
<div class="card glass shadow-xl transition-all duration-300 hover:scale-105 hover:shadow-purple-500/20">
|
||
<div class="card-body">
|
||
<h3 class="card-title text-2xl text-slate-100">花园生物 (300401)</h3>
|
||
<div class="badge badge-info badge-outline">细分垄断者</div><div class="badge badge-success badge-outline">自主定价</div>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-300 mt-2">VD3全球龙头，通过控制上游核心原料NF级胆固醇掌控全产业链定价权。涨价逻辑独立于巴斯夫事件。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<!-- 兄弟科技 -->
|
||
<div class="card glass shadow-xl transition-all duration-300 hover:scale-105 hover:shadow-green-500/20">
|
||
<div class="card-body">
|
||
<h3 class="card-title text-2xl text-slate-100">兄弟科技 (002562)</h3>
|
||
<div class="badge badge-ghost">多品类冠军</div>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-300 mt-2">在维生素K3、B1、B3等多个细分品种上具备全球领先地位。受益于行业整体景气度提升。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock Data Tables -->
|
||
<section>
|
||
<h2 class="text-4xl text-center text-slate-100 text-glow my-8">相关上市公司梳理</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass rounded-3xl p-4 glow-border">
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra w-full">
|
||
<thead class="text-slate-100 text-base">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>相关标签</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑/产能数据</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr><td>新和成</td><td>002001</td><td><div class="badge badge-primary">VA/VE龙头</div></td><td>VA产能8000吨(全球第一)，VE产能6万吨(全球第一)，VB6/B7/B12/C/D3均有布局</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>浙江医药</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600216" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600216</a></td><td><div class="badge badge-error">业绩弹性最大</div></td><td>VE产能4万吨(全球第二)，VA产能5000吨。本轮涨价核心受益标的。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>花园生物</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300401" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">300401</a></td><td><div class="badge badge-info">VD3垄断</div></td><td>VD3年产能3600吨，全球龙头，掌控上游NF级胆固醇。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>兄弟科技</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002562" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002562</a></td><td><div class="badge badge-success">B族/K3龙头</div></td><td>VB1产能3200吨, VB3产能1.3万吨, VB5产能5000吨, VK3产能3000吨。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>安迪苏</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600299" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600299</a></td><td><div class="badge badge-secondary">VA</div></td><td>VA年产能为5000吨。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>金达威</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002626" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002626</a></td><td><div class="badge badge-secondary">VA/D3</div></td><td>VA年产能为4000吨，VD3年产能为1600吨。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>天新药业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603235" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">603235</a></td><td><div class="badge badge-secondary">B族维生素</div></td><td>VB1产能7000吨, VB5产能3000吨(在建), VB6产能6500吨, B7/B9亦有布局。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>亿帆医药</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002019" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002019</a></td><td><div class="badge badge-secondary">VB5</div></td><td>VB5 (泛酸)产能8000-12000吨，全球最大供应商。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>广济药业</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000952" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000952</a></td><td><div class="badge badge-secondary">VB2</div></td><td>VB2年产能为4000吨，VB6产能1000吨。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>圣达生物</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603079" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">603079</a></td><td><div class="badge badge-secondary">B7/B9</div></td><td>VB7(生物素)年产能120吨(全球最大)，VB9(叶酸)年产能500吨。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>东北制药</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000597" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000597</a></td><td><div class="badge badge-secondary">VC</div></td><td>维生素C年产能为2.5万吨。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>华北制药</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600812" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600812</a></td><td><div class="badge badge-secondary">VC/B12</div></td><td>维生素C年产能为1.2万吨，维生素B12年产能为1400吨。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>振华股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603067" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">603067</a></td><td><div class="badge badge-secondary">VK3</div></td><td>维生素K3的设计产能是2700吨/年。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>汤臣倍健</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300146" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">300146</a></td><td><div class="badge badge-accent">下游应用</div></td><td>复合维生素保健品业务。</td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>中牧股份</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600195" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600195</a></td><td><div class="badge badge-accent">下游应用</div></td><td>复合维生素预混料业务。</td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Footer -->
|
||
<footer class="footer footer-center p-4 mt-12 text-base-content rounded">
|
||
<aside>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-500">免责声明：本报告由北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 合成。所有内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。</p>
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