545 lines
38 KiB
HTML
545 lines
38 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
|
||
<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
|
||
<head>
|
||
<meta charset="UTF-8">
|
||
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
|
||
<title>深度研究报告：海南概念</title>
|
||
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.13.10/dist/cdn.min.js" defer></script>
|
||
<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.11.1/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
|
||
<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
|
||
<style>
|
||
@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Space+Grotesk:wght@300;400;500;700&display=swap');
|
||
|
||
body {
|
||
font-family: 'Space Grotesk', sans-serif;
|
||
background-color: #050816;
|
||
color: #e5e7eb;
|
||
overflow-x: hidden;
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
.glass-card {
|
||
background: rgba(15, 23, 42, 0.4); /* slate-900 with alpha */
|
||
backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
|
||
-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
|
||
border: 1px solid rgba(100, 116, 139, 0.3); /* slate-500 with alpha */
|
||
border-radius: 1.5rem; /* rounded-3xl */
|
||
transition: all 0.3s ease;
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
.glass-card:hover {
|
||
border-color: rgba(56, 189, 248, 0.5); /* sky-400 with alpha */
|
||
box-shadow: 0 0 25px rgba(56, 189, 248, 0.2);
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
.glow-text {
|
||
text-shadow: 0 0 8px rgba(56, 189, 248, 0.7), 0 0 20px rgba(56, 189, 248, 0.5);
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
.bento-grid {
|
||
display: grid;
|
||
gap: 1rem;
|
||
grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fit, minmax(280px, 1fr));
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
.bento-item {
|
||
padding: 1.5rem;
|
||
position: relative;
|
||
overflow: hidden;
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
.bento-item::before {
|
||
content: '';
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
top: -50%;
|
||
left: -50%;
|
||
width: 200%;
|
||
height: 200%;
|
||
background: conic-gradient(
|
||
transparent,
|
||
rgba(56, 189, 248, 0.3),
|
||
transparent 30%
|
||
);
|
||
animation: rotate 6s linear infinite;
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
@keyframes rotate {
|
||
100% {
|
||
transform: rotate(1turn);
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
.table-custom th, .table-custom td {
|
||
background-color: transparent !important;
|
||
border-bottom-width: 1px;
|
||
border-color: rgba(100, 116, 139, 0.3);
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
.collapse-title {
|
||
font-size: 1.25rem;
|
||
font-weight: 500;
|
||
}
|
||
.collapse:not(.collapse-close) .collapse-content {
|
||
padding-bottom: 1rem;
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
.hero-bg {
|
||
position: absolute;
|
||
top: 0;
|
||
left: 0;
|
||
right: 0;
|
||
bottom: 0;
|
||
z-index: -10;
|
||
background-image:
|
||
radial-gradient(circle at 15% 25%, rgba(56, 189, 248, 0.15), transparent 35%),
|
||
radial-gradient(circle at 85% 75%, rgba(139, 92, 246, 0.15), transparent 40%);
|
||
filter: blur(80px);
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
h2 {
|
||
font-size: 2rem;
|
||
font-weight: 700;
|
||
padding-bottom: 1rem;
|
||
border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(100, 116, 139, 0.3);
|
||
margin-bottom: 1.5rem;
|
||
color: #f0f0f0;
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
h3 {
|
||
font-size: 1.5rem;
|
||
font-weight: 600;
|
||
margin-top: 2rem;
|
||
margin-bottom: 1rem;
|
||
color: #d0d0d0;
|
||
}
|
||
</style>
|
||
</head>
|
||
<body class="min-h-screen">
|
||
<div class="hero-bg"></div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="container mx-auto px-4 py-8 md:py-16">
|
||
<header class="text-center mb-16">
|
||
<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold mb-4 glow-text bg-clip-text text-transparent bg-gradient-to-r from-sky-300 to-violet-400">
|
||
海南概念 · 深度研究报告
|
||
</h1>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-400">北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 呈现</p>
|
||
<p class="text-xs text-slate-500 mt-2">本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。 更新日期：2025-12-01</p>
|
||
</header>
|
||
|
||
<main class="space-y-12">
|
||
<!-- 0. 概念事件 -->
|
||
<section id="concept-event" class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="glow-text">0. 概念事件：迈向封关的冲刺</h2>
|
||
<p class="mb-6 text-slate-300">海南概念的核心驱动力是国家级战略——**海南自由贸易港（FTP）建设**，其终极目标是在 <span class="text-sky-300 font-bold">2025年底实现全岛封关运作</span>。这一里程碑意味着海南将转变为一个“境内关外”的特殊关税区，在贸易、投资、金融、人员和数据流动上实现前所未有的自由化，从而引发全岛产业生态的颠覆性变革。</p>
|
||
<div id="timeline-chart" style="width: 100%; height: 400px;"></div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 1. 核心观点 -->
|
||
<section id="core-view" class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="glow-text">1. 核心观点摘要</h2>
|
||
<p class="text-lg text-slate-300 leading-relaxed">
|
||
海南概念正处于由<strong class="text-sky-300">政策预期驱动</strong>向<strong class="text-violet-300">基本面验证</strong>过渡的关键转折点。其核心驱动力源于“全岛封关”带来的制度性开放红利，这不仅是对现有旅游、免税业态的升级，更是对海南全产业生态的重塑。未来潜力巨大，但短期内市场的乐观预期与部分产业（如免税零售）的实际经营数据存在显著<strong class="text-amber-400">预期差</strong>，投资机会将从普涨的“概念炒作”转向聚焦核心受益且具备扎实基本面的“价值发现”。
|
||
</p>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 2. 核心逻辑与市场认知 -->
|
||
<section id="core-logic" x-data="{ activeTab: 'drive' }" class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="glow-text">2. 核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h2>
|
||
|
||
<div class="tabs tabs-boxed bg-slate-800/50 mb-6">
|
||
<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active': activeTab === 'drive' }" @click.prevent="activeTab = 'drive'">核心驱动力</a>
|
||
<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active': activeTab === 'heat' }" @click.prevent="activeTab = 'heat'">市场热度与情绪</a>
|
||
<a class="tab tab-lg" :class="{ 'tab-active': activeTab === 'gap' }" @click.prevent="activeTab = 'gap'">预期差分析</a>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div x-show="activeTab === 'drive'" class="space-y-4 text-slate-300">
|
||
<p>海南概念的根本逻辑是<strong class="text-sky-300">政策驱动下的制度创新红利</strong>。核心是建立一套与国际高标准经贸规则接轨的制度体系：</p>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-3 pl-4">
|
||
<li><strong class="text-cyan-300">税制优势 (零关税、低税率、简税制):</strong> 这是吸引产业和资本的根本动力。研报明确指出，封关后目录外货物免征进口关税，鼓励类企业所得税率最高15%，高端人才个税超15%部分免征。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-cyan-300">要素自由流动:</strong> 新闻提及封关后将迎来“资金自由往来、互联网全球开放、人员自由进出”等四大红利，旨在打造资源配置的枢纽。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-cyan-300">产业升级与重构:</strong> 政策引导发展四大主导产业（旅游、现代服务、高新科技、热带农业），并向种业、深海、航天等新质生产力领域延伸，拓展了传统旅游地产外的想象空间。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div x-show="activeTab === 'heat'" class="space-y-4 text-slate-300">
|
||
<p>市场热度与政策节点<strong class="text-sky-300">高度同步</strong>，呈现典型的事件驱动特征。每当有封关、推介会等重磅消息，板块便会迎来集体拉升。然而，板块也出现过震荡下挫，表明在利好兑现间隙，资金获利了结意愿强，情绪波动较大。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div x-show="activeTab === 'gap'" class="space-y-4 text-slate-300">
|
||
<p>市场的宏大叙事与企业微观现实之间存在显著的预期差，这既是风险也是机会：</p>
|
||
<div class="bento-grid mt-4">
|
||
<div class="bento-item glass-card">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-amber-300 mb-2">【预期差一】免税消费</h4>
|
||
<p><strong class="text-sky-400">预期：</strong> 2027年销售额达600亿。</p>
|
||
<p><strong class="text-red-400">现实：</strong> 2024年销售额309.4亿元，同比<strong class="font-bold text-xl">下滑29%</strong>，市场可能过度简化了“政策=增长”的逻辑。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bento-item glass-card">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-amber-300 mb-2">【预期差二】政策落地</h4>
|
||
<p><strong class="text-sky-400">预期：</strong> “加工增值30%免关税”等政策带来巨大红利。</p>
|
||
<p><strong class="text-red-400">现实：</strong> 路演显示，政策享受需满足复杂流程，<strong class="font-bold">实际操作仍需简化</strong>，存在“最后一公里”障碍。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bento-item glass-card">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-amber-300 mb-2">【预期差三】基础设施</h4>
|
||
<p><strong class="text-sky-400">预期：</strong> 封关带来人流、物流爆发式增长。</p>
|
||
<p><strong class="text-red-400">现实：</strong> 三亚机场因三期改扩建导致<strong class="font-bold">短期运力受限</strong>，基础设施升级速度是承接红利的前提。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 3. 关键催化剂与发展路径 -->
|
||
<section id="catalysts" class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="glow-text">3. 关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h2>
|
||
<h3>近期催化剂（未来3-6个月）</h3>
|
||
<ul class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-2 text-slate-300 pl-4">
|
||
<li><strong class="text-sky-300">全岛正式封关运作 (2025年12月18日):</strong> 最大、最确定的催化剂，将引爆市场情绪。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-sky-300">“二线”口岸压力测试结果公布:</strong> 影响市场对封关后实际运作效率的信心。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-sky-300">岛内居民免税购物政策出台:</strong> 若落地将直接扩容免税消费市场。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-sky-300">三亚凤凰机场三期工程投用:</strong> 解除运力瓶颈，为客流增长打开空间。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
|
||
<h3>长期发展路径</h3>
|
||
<ul class="timeline timeline-snap-icon max-md:timeline-compact timeline-vertical">
|
||
<li>
|
||
<div class="timeline-middle">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-sky-400"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.137-.089l4-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="timeline-end md:text-end mb-10 glass-card p-4">
|
||
<time class="font-mono italic text-slate-400">2026-2028</time>
|
||
<div class="text-lg font-black text-sky-300">阶段一：政策红利释放与基建完善期</div>
|
||
核心看点是贸易和旅游数据的快速增长。交运、物流、免税零售率先受益。基础设施建设进入高峰。
|
||
</div>
|
||
<hr class="bg-sky-400/50"/>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li>
|
||
<hr class="bg-violet-400/50"/>
|
||
<div class="timeline-middle">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-violet-400"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.137-.089l4-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="timeline-start mb-10 glass-card p-4">
|
||
<time class="font-mono italic text-slate-400">2028-2030</time>
|
||
<div class="text-lg font-black text-violet-300">阶段二：产业集群形成期</div>
|
||
高新技术产业（生物医药、集成电路、新能源、商业航天）开始形成集群效应，国内外龙头企业入驻。
|
||
</div>
|
||
<hr class="bg-violet-400/50"/>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li>
|
||
<hr class="bg-fuchsia-400/50"/>
|
||
<div class="timeline-middle">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5 text-fuchsia-400"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.137-.089l4-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="timeline-end md:text-end mb-10 glass-card p-4">
|
||
<time class="font-mono italic text-slate-400">2030年后</time>
|
||
<div class="text-lg font-black text-fuchsia-300">阶段三：全球资源配置中心成熟期</div>
|
||
海南有望成为连接中国内地与全球的资金、技术、人才和数据枢纽，形成成熟的离岸金融、贸易和服务体系。
|
||
</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 4. 产业链与核心公司 -->
|
||
<section id="industry-chain" class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="glow-text">4. 产业链与核心公司深度剖析</h2>
|
||
|
||
<h3>产业链图谱</h3>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6 text-center">
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-4 border-t-4 border-sky-400">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-xl text-sky-300">上游</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-400">基础设施 & 要素支持</p>
|
||
<p class="mt-2 text-sm">海南高速、海南发展、海南机场、海南瑞泽、海南橡胶、海南矿业</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-4 border-t-4 border-violet-400">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-xl text-violet-300">中游</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-400">核心受益产业</p>
|
||
<p class="mt-2 text-sm">海航控股、海汽集团、*ST凯撒、海马汽车、海南椰岛、海南海药</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-4 border-t-4 border-fuchsia-400">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-xl text-fuchsia-300">下游</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-400">服务与配套</p>
|
||
<p class="mt-2 text-sm">海德股份、华闻集团</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<h3 class="mt-8">核心玩家对比</h3>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-6 space-y-3">
|
||
<h4 class="text-xl font-bold text-sky-200">领导者 & 逻辑最纯粹者：海南机场</h4>
|
||
<p><strong class="text-slate-300">优势：</strong> 绝对垄断海南96%民航客流，是自贸港最核心的流量入口。</p>
|
||
<p><strong class="text-slate-300">进展：</strong> 积极推进机场扩容和资源整合，战略清晰。</p>
|
||
<p><strong class="text-slate-300">风险：</strong> 免税业务受宏观消费环境影响大，基建投入期影响短期利润。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-6 space-y-3">
|
||
<h4 class="text-xl font-bold text-violet-200">转型追赶者：海汽集团</h4>
|
||
<p><strong class="text-slate-300">优势：</strong> 拟收购免税牌照，若成功将实现估值逻辑的根本性改变。</p>
|
||
<p><strong class="text-slate-300">进展：</strong> 资产重组是其当前核心叙事。</p>
|
||
<p><strong class="text-slate-300">风险：</strong> 重组不确定性，转型后面临激烈的免税市场竞争。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-6 space-y-3">
|
||
<h4 class="text-xl font-bold text-emerald-200">资源潜力者：海南橡胶</h4>
|
||
<p><strong class="text-slate-300">优势：</strong> 拥有海南341万亩土地，在自贸港政策下价值重估想象空间巨大。</p>
|
||
<p><strong class="text-slate-300">进展：</strong> 主业持续亏损，正尝试林下经济提升土地收益。</p>
|
||
<p><strong class="text-slate-300">风险：</strong> 土地价值变现路径不清晰且周期长，主业拖累业绩。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="glass-card p-6 space-y-3">
|
||
<h4 class="text-xl font-bold text-amber-200">国资赋能者：海南华铁</h4>
|
||
<p><strong class="text-slate-300">优势：</strong> 海南国资委入主，获150亿资金支持并迁册海南，旨在利用税收及政策优势。</p>
|
||
<p><strong class="text-slate-300">进展：</strong> 探索AI、算力租赁新业务，契合海南新质生产力方向。</p>
|
||
<p><strong class="text-slate-300">风险：</strong> 新业务尚处探索期，业绩贡献待观察。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 5. 潜在风险与挑战 -->
|
||
<section id="risks" class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="glow-text">5. 潜在风险与挑战</h2>
|
||
<div class="space-y-4 text-slate-300">
|
||
<div class="alert bg-red-900/30 border-red-500/50">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="stroke-current shrink-0 h-6 w-6 text-red-400" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M12 9v2m0 4h.01m-6.938 4h13.856c1.54 0 2.502-1.667 1.732-3L13.732 4c-.77-1.333-2.694-1.333-3.464 0L3.34 16c-.77 1.333.192 3 1.732 3z" /></svg>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="font-bold text-red-300">商业化风险：免税消费不及预期</h3>
|
||
<div class="text-sm">2024年销售额、客单价、购物人数三重下滑是重要警示信号，市场可能已阶段性饱和或面临消费降级压力。</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="alert bg-amber-900/30 border-amber-500/50">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="stroke-current shrink-0 h-6 w-6 text-amber-400" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M12 9v2m0 4h.01m-6.938 4h13.856c1.54 0 2.502-1.667 1.732-3L13.732 4c-.77-1.333-2.694-1.333-3.464 0L3.34 16c-.77 1.333.192 3 1.732 3z" /></svg>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="font-bold text-amber-300">政策与竞争风险</h3>
|
||
<div class="text-sm">核心政策落地速度、力度不及预期；岛内外旅游免税竞争加剧，岛内12家免税店已呈“内卷”态势。</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="alert bg-sky-900/30 border-sky-500/50">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="stroke-current shrink-0 h-6 w-6 text-sky-400" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" d="M12 9v2m0 4h.01m-6.938 4h13.856c1.54 0 2.502-1.667 1.732-3L13.732 4c-.77-1.333-2.694-1.333-3.464 0L3.34 16c-.77 1.333.192 3 1.732 3z" /></svg>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="font-bold text-sky-300">核心矛盾点：信息交叉验证风险</h3>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside text-sm">
|
||
<li><strong>免税市场的“冰与火”</strong>：600亿的远期目标 vs 2024年-29%的冰冷现实。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>客流与消费的“脱钩”</strong>：2023年客流已超2019年，但免税购物人数和客单价却在下降，“人来了钱没花”。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>政策与感知的“温差”</strong>：宏观政策普惠 vs 企业微观感受到的操作障碍和分流影响。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 6. 结论与投资启示 -->
|
||
<section id="conclusion" class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="glow-text">6. 综合结论与投资启示</h2>
|
||
<div class="space-y-6">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-sky-300">综合结论</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-300">海南概念正站在从<strong class="text-white">“主题炒作”向“基本面驱动”演变的分水岭</strong>。以2025年12月18日封关为界，此前的上涨基于政策蓝图，此后市场的焦点将严格转向<strong class="text-white">经济数据的兑现</strong>。长期价值毋庸置疑，但需警惕利好出尽和基本面不及预期的风险。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-violet-300">最具投资价值的细分环节</h3>
|
||
<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row gap-6 mt-4">
|
||
<div class="flex-1 glass-card p-4">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg">1. 确定性最高：交通基建（机场）</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-slate-400">作为流量入口，平台价值和确定性最高，卖的是自贸港发展必需的“水和电”。核心标的：<strong class="text-white">海南机场</strong>。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="flex-1 glass-card p-4">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-lg">2. 弹性最大：免税零售</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-slate-400">直接受益于政策放宽，想象空间最大，但业绩波动也最大。适合风险偏好高的投资者。关注转型逻辑：<strong class="text-white">海汽集团</strong>。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-fuchsia-300">需重点跟踪和验证的关键指标</h3>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2 text-slate-300 pl-4">
|
||
<li>海南离岛免税月度销售数据（销售额、人次、客单价）。</li>
|
||
<li>海南机场国际旅客吞吐量。</li>
|
||
<li>封关后非涉税货物清单的进口额。</li>
|
||
<li>海南省实际利用外资（FDI）和新设外资企业数量。</li>
|
||
<li>核心政策（岛内居民免税、资金跨境等）的正式实施细则。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 7. 原始数据摘要 -->
|
||
<section id="raw-data" class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="glow-text">7. 原始数据摘要 (可展开)</h2>
|
||
<div class="space-y-4">
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="data-accordion" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-sky-300">新闻数据摘要</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content text-slate-400 space-y-4">
|
||
<p><strong>市场表现：</strong> 板块在2024年12月及2025年11月有明显拉升，与政策节点（全球推介会、封关倒计时）高度相关。海南瑞泽、海南海药、欣龙控股、葫芦娃等个股出现连板行情。也存在2024年12月6日的集体下挫。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>封关运作：</strong> 明确时间点为2025年12月18日正式启动。封关后海南将成为“境内关外”区域，享受零关税等红利。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>核心政策：</strong> 推出《提振和扩大消费三年行动方案》（投100亿以上）、加工增值免关税政策、新能源汽车出口基地规划、化妆品产业发展方案等。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>免税数据：</strong> 2024年全年离岛免税销售额309.4亿元，同比下滑29%，购物旅客、销售件数、客单价均有不同程度下滑。这是一个关键的负面数据点。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="data-accordion" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-violet-300">路演数据摘要</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content text-slate-400 space-y-4">
|
||
<p><strong>海南橡胶：</strong> 核心看点是海南341万亩土地资源的价值重估。但公司面临主业亏损、胶工短缺、天气影响等现实困境。对自贸港政策（如零关税进口原料、低成本融资）有期待，但指出实际操作仍需简化。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>海南机场：</strong> 定位为自贸港核心受益标的。正在推进三亚、博鳌机场扩建，以应对未来客流增长。坦承2024年上半年离岛免税市场疲软，且三亚机场扩建短期内限制了运力。2025年目标是国际旅客吞吐量达240万人次以上。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>海南矿业：</strong> 核心资产石碌铁矿在海南，同时利用海南作为平台拓展海外业务（如与沙特合作锂盐厂）。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus glass-card">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="data-accordion" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-fuchsia-300">研报数据摘要</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content text-slate-400 space-y-4">
|
||
<p><strong>海南机场：</strong> 多份研报均将其列为“海南自贸港建设核心受益标的”。通过收购美兰空港，将掌控全省96%民航客流，成为绝对龙头。风险提示包括封关进度不及预期、免税消费复苏不及预期。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>海南华铁：</strong> 海南国资委入主并提供150亿资金支持，计划迁册海南，旨在充分享受15%企业所得税、高端人才个税优惠等自贸港税收红利。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>自贸港政策解读：</strong> 封关后“一线放开、二线管住”，进口“零关税”商品税目比例将大幅提高。研报看好交运物流（嘉诚国际）、社服零售（中国中免等）及其他在海南布局的企业（力盛体育）将受益。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 8. 相关股票列表 -->
|
||
<section id="stock-list" class="glass-card p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="glow-text">8. 海南概念核心股票池</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table table-custom w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr class="text-base text-slate-300">
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑分类</th>
|
||
<th>其他标签</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<!-- Data will be injected here by script -->
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
const stockData = {
|
||
"海南（240126）": {
|
||
"A7856463-6523-4820-933B-A8C34B1AB61F.png": [
|
||
{ "stock": "海汽集团", "reason": "客运", "其他标签": "客运, 免税概念, 国资", "stock_code": "603069" },
|
||
{ "stock": "海航控股", "reason": "客运", "其他标签": "客运", "stock_code": "600221" },
|
||
{ "stock": "海马汽车", "reason": "客运", "其他标签": "客运", "stock_code": "000572" },
|
||
{ "stock": "海峡股份", "reason": "客运", "其他标签": "客运, 免税概念, 国资(央企)", "stock_code": "002320" },
|
||
{ "stock": "海南瑞泽", "reason": "基建/地产", "其他标签": "基建/地产", "stock_code": "002596" },
|
||
{ "stock": "海南机场", "reason": "基建/地产", "其他标签": "基建/地产, 国资", "stock_code": "600515" },
|
||
{ "stock": "海南高速", "reason": "基建/地产", "其他标签": "基建/地产, 免税概念, 国资", "stock_code": "000886" },
|
||
{ "stock": "海南发展", "reason": "基建/地产", "其他标签": "基建/地产, 免税概念, 新能源", "stock_code": "002163" },
|
||
{ "stock": "*ST凯撒", "reason": "免税概念", "其他标签": "免税概念" },
|
||
{ "stock": "海南椰岛", "reason": "农业/食品/贸易", "其他标签": "农业/食品/贸易, 国资" },
|
||
{ "stock": "海南橡胶", "reason": "农业/食品/贸易", "其他标签": "农业/食品/贸易, 国资", "stock_code": "601118" },
|
||
{ "stock": "罗牛山", "reason": "农业/食品/贸易", "其他标签": "农业/食品/贸易" },
|
||
{ "stock": "神农科技", "reason": "农业/食品/贸易", "其他标签": "农业/食品/贸易" },
|
||
{ "stock": "京粮控股", "reason": "农业/食品/贸易", "其他标签": "农业/食品/贸易, 国资", "stock_code": "000505" },
|
||
{ "stock": "欣龙控股", "reason": "农业/食品/贸易(纺织贸易)", "其他标签": "农业/食品/贸易(纺织贸易)", "stock_code": "000955" },
|
||
{ "stock": "钧达股份", "reason": "新能源", "其他标签": "新能源", "stock_code": "002865" },
|
||
{ "stock": "金盘科技", "reason": "新能源", "其他标签": "新能源", "stock_code": "688676" },
|
||
{ "stock": "海南矿业", "reason": "矿产/油气", "其他标签": "矿产/油气", "stock_code": "601969" },
|
||
{ "stock": "新大洲A", "reason": "矿产/油气(煤炭)", "其他标签": "矿产/油气(煤炭)" },
|
||
{ "stock": "中钨高新", "reason": "矿产/油气", "其他标签": "矿产/油气, 国资", "stock_code": "000657" },
|
||
{ "stock": "ST洲际", "reason": "矿产/油气(油气)", "其他标签": "矿产/油气(油气)" },
|
||
{ "stock": "康芝药业", "reason": "医药", "其他标签": "医药", "stock_code": "300086" },
|
||
{ "stock": "葫芦娃", "reason": "医药", "其他标签": "医药" },
|
||
{ "stock": "普利制药", "reason": "医药", "其他标签": "医药" },
|
||
{ "stock": "双成药业", "reason": "医药", "其他标签": "医药" },
|
||
{ "stock": "海南海药", "reason": "医药", "其他标签": "医药", "stock_code": "000566" },
|
||
{ "stock": "海德股份", "reason": "非银金融", "其他标签": "非银金融", "stock_code": "000567" },
|
||
{ "stock": "华闻集团", "reason": "传媒出版", "其他标签": "传媒出版, 国资" }
|
||
]
|
||
}
|
||
};
|
||
|
||
document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function () {
|
||
// Populate stock table
|
||
const tableBody = document.querySelector('#stock-list tbody');
|
||
const stocks = stockData['海南（240126）']['A7856463-6523-4820-933B-A8C34B1AB61F.png'];
|
||
|
||
stocks.forEach(stock => {
|
||
const row = document.createElement('tr');
|
||
row.className = "hover:bg-slate-800/50 transition-colors";
|
||
|
||
let codeCellContent = stock.stock_code || 'N/A';
|
||
if (stock.stock_code) {
|
||
codeCellContent = `<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=${stock.stock_code}" target="_blank" class="text-sky-400 hover:text-sky-300 hover:underline">${stock.stock_code}</a>`;
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
row.innerHTML = `
|
||
<td class="font-bold text-slate-200">${stock.stock}</td>
|
||
<td>${codeCellContent}</td>
|
||
<td>${stock.reason}</td>
|
||
<td class="text-xs text-slate-400">${stock.其他标签}</td>
|
||
`;
|
||
tableBody.appendChild(row);
|
||
});
|
||
|
||
// Initialize timeline chart
|
||
const timelineChart = echarts.init(document.getElementById('timeline-chart'));
|
||
const timelineOption = {
|
||
baseOption: {
|
||
timeline: {
|
||
axisType: 'category',
|
||
autoPlay: false,
|
||
playInterval: 3000,
|
||
data: ['2024-Q4', '2025-Q2', '2025-Q3', '2025-Q4'],
|
||
label: { color: '#94a3b8' },
|
||
lineStyle: { color: '#475569' },
|
||
checkpointStyle: { color: '#38bdf8', borderColor: '#fff' },
|
||
controlStyle: { color: '#94a3b8', borderColor: '#94a3b8' },
|
||
},
|
||
tooltip: {
|
||
trigger: 'item',
|
||
formatter: '{b}: {c}',
|
||
backgroundColor: 'rgba(15, 23, 42, 0.8)',
|
||
borderColor: 'rgba(100, 116, 139, 0.5)',
|
||
textStyle: { color: '#e5e7eb' },
|
||
},
|
||
grid: { containLabel: true, top: '10%', bottom: '30%' },
|
||
xAxis: {
|
||
type: 'value',
|
||
axisLabel: { show: false },
|
||
splitLine: { show: false },
|
||
},
|
||
yAxis: {
|
||
type: 'category',
|
||
data: ['全球推介', '消费提振方案', '封关节点明确', '封关倒计时'],
|
||
axisLabel: { color: '#cbd5e1', fontSize: 14 },
|
||
axisLine: { show: false },
|
||
axisTick: { show: false },
|
||
},
|
||
visualMap: {
|
||
type: 'continuous',
|
||
min: 1,
|
||
max: 4,
|
||
dimension: 0,
|
||
show: false,
|
||
inRange: {
|
||
color: ['#0ea5e9', '#6366f1', '#a855f7', '#d946ef']
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
series: [ { type: 'bar', label: { show: true, position: 'right', color: '#fff', formatter: '{b}' } } ]
|
||
},
|
||
options: [
|
||
{
|
||
title: { text: '2024-Q4: 预热与造势期', textStyle: { color: '#e2e8f0' } },
|
||
series: [{ data: [{name:'全球推介', value: 1, itemStyle: {}}] }]
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
title: { text: '2025-Q2: 政策密集落地', textStyle: { color: '#e2e8f0' } },
|
||
series: [{ data: [0, {name:'消费提振方案', value: 2}] }]
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
title: { text: '2025-Q3: 预期强化期', textStyle: { color: '#e2e8f0' } },
|
||
series: [{ data: [0, 0, {name:'封关节点明确', value: 3}] }]
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
title: { text: '2025-Q4: 市场冲刺期', textStyle: { color: '#e2e8f0' } },
|
||
series: [{ data: [0, 0, 0, {name:'封关倒计时', value: 4}] }]
|
||
}
|
||
]
|
||
};
|
||
timelineChart.setOption(timelineOption);
|
||
window.addEventListener('resize', () => timelineChart.resize());
|
||
});
|
||
</script>
|
||
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html> |