411 lines
26 KiB
HTML
411 lines
26 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>2025年中报业绩前瞻-TMT 深度研报</title>
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<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.10.1/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<style>
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@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Oxanium:wght@300;400;500;700&display=swap');
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body {
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font-family: 'Oxanium', sans-serif;
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background: #000010;
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overflow-x: hidden;
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}
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backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
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-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
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border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
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border-radius: 1.5rem;
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box-shadow: 0 8px 32px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.37);
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transition: all 0.3s ease;
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grid-template-columns: repeat(12, 1fr);
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z-index: -1;
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background-image:
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radial-gradient(ellipse 80% 80% at 20% 20%, rgba(129, 140, 248, 0.15), transparent),
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}
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.timeline {
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position: relative;
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padding-left: 2.5rem;
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border-left: 2px solid rgba(139, 92, 246, 0.3);
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}
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.timeline-item::before {
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content: '';
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position: absolute;
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left: -0.7rem;
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width: 1.2rem;
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height: 1.2rem;
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border-radius: 50%;
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background-color: #4f46e5;
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border: 4px solid #1e293b;
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="text-gray-200 min-h-screen">
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<div class="background-aurora"></div>
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 lg:p-8">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center mb-12">
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<h1 class="text-4xl lg:text-6xl font-bold glow-text bg-gradient-to-r from-indigo-400 to-purple-400 text-transparent bg-clip-text mb-4">
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2025年中报业绩前瞻-TMT
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</h1>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 max-w-3xl mx-auto">
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北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现。本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。
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</p>
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</header>
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<!-- Bento Grid Layout -->
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<main class="bento-grid">
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<!-- Core Logic -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 lg:p-8 bento-item lg:bento-item-col-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-violet-300 mb-4">核心观点与驱动逻辑</h2>
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<div class="space-y-4 text-gray-300">
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<p class="text-lg">TMT行业在2025年中报将呈现显著的 <strong class="text-cyan-300">结构性分化</strong>。核心驱动力源于 <strong class="text-cyan-300">AI技术革命引发的算力基础设施建设狂潮</strong>，正推动上游硬件（AI芯片、光模块、服务器、连接器）进入基本面驱动的业绩爆发期。然而，下游应用与部分传统消费电子领域仍处于商业模式探索或需求复苏阶段，业绩兑现速度相对滞后。</p>
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<div class="divider before:bg-violet-800/50 after:bg-violet-800/50"></div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-violet-300">三大核心驱动力：</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-2">
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<li><strong>技术突破引发需求：</strong> 以大语言模型为代表的生成式AI技术，其训练和推理过程需要海量算力作为支撑，直接催生了对AI芯片、服务器、高速光模块等硬件基础设施的爆发式需求。路演纪要明确指出，“AI是自2015年以来最大变革”，“算力投资是AI发展的核心”。</li>
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<li><strong>政策加持国产化：</strong> “新质生产力”被列为重点发展方向，涵盖人工智能、6G、人形机器人等前沿领域。这一顶层设计为国内TMT产业，特别是半导体设备与材料、国产AI芯片等“卡脖子”环节，提供了强有力的政策背书和市场空间。</li>
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<li><strong>商业模式的确定性：</strong> 与尚在探索商业模式的AI应用不同，AI基础设施的商业逻辑是清晰的“卖铲子”模式。无论是智算中心建设，还是云厂商采购，都直接转化为硬件厂商的确定性订单。新闻中 <strong class="text-yellow-300">华丰科技</strong> 通讯业务（主要为高速线模组） <strong class="text-yellow-300">同比增长超两倍</strong>，是这一逻辑的直接体现。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Market Heat & Sentiment -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 bento-item lg:bento-item-col-4">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-violet-300 mb-4">市场热度与情绪</h2>
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<p class="mb-4 text-gray-300">当前市场对TMT概念，尤其是AI硬件方向，关注度极高，整体情绪 <strong class="text-green-400">偏向乐观</strong>。</p>
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<div class="space-y-3">
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<div class="flex items-center gap-3">
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<div class="radial-progress text-cyan-400" style="--value:90; --size:3rem; --thickness: 4px;" role="progressbar">90%</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold">研报热度</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">研报密集发布，焦点高度集中于AI算力。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-center gap-3">
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<div class="radial-progress text-green-400" style="--value:85; --size:3rem; --thickness: 4px;" role="progressbar">85%</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold">业绩预期</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">招商、国联等券商均将TMT列为预喜重点板块。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-center gap-3">
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<div class="radial-progress text-yellow-400" style="--value:60; --size:3rem; --thickness: 4px;" role="progressbar">60%</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-semibold">情绪分歧</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">AI应用及传统软件领域，市场情绪相对谨慎。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Performance Divergence Chart -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 bento-item lg:bento-item-col-12">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-violet-300 mb-4">业绩预期差：冰与火之歌</h2>
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<p class="text-gray-400 mb-4 max-w-4xl">市场普遍认知与实际情况存在巨大预期差。本轮TMT行情并非板块普涨，而是由AI主线驱动的结构性牛市，内部业绩分化极其严重。AI算力硬件需求强劲，而传统软件及部分物联网模组公司则面临压力。</p>
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<div id="performanceChart" style="width: 100%; height: 400px;"></div>
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</section>
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<!-- Catalysts & Future Path -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 lg:p-8 bento-item lg:bento-item-col-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-violet-300 mb-4">关键催化剂与发展路径</h2>
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<div class="timeline space-y-8 mt-6">
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-cyan-300">第一阶段 (当前 - 2025年): 基础设施建设期</h4>
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<p class="text-gray-400">核心是算力硬件的快速铺设。关键里程碑是国产AI芯片实现大规模商用，以及800G/1.6T光模块成为数据中心标配。</p>
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<ul class="text-sm mt-2 space-y-1 text-gray-300">
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<li><span class="font-semibold text-yellow-400">近期催化：</span> 中报业绩验证、华为Ascend 910C及寒武纪芯片规模化出货、OpenAI 5.0发布刺激算力升级。</li>
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<li><span class="font-semibold text-yellow-400">政策催化：</span> “新质生产力”和“人工智能+”行动具体产业政策落地。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-cyan-300">第二阶段 (2025年 - 2027年): 应用商业化探索期</h4>
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<p class="text-gray-400">随着算力成本下降，B端Agent（汉得信息、金蝶）和C端应用（AI教育、AI玩具）将加速落地。关键里程碑是出现杀手级AI应用，并形成可持续的商业模式。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<h4 class="font-bold text-lg text-cyan-300">第三阶段 (2027年后): 产业生态成熟期</h4>
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<p class="text-gray-400">AI将深度融入各行_各业，成为基础设施。TMT产业的增长将由硬件销售驱动，转向由数据、服务和生态构建驱动。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Risks & Challenges -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 bento-item lg:bento-item-col-4">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-red-400 mb-4">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-gray-300 list-disc list-inside">
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<li><strong class="text-red-300">技术风险:</strong> AI技术迭代不及预期，或国产技术遭遇瓶颈，可能导致算力需求增速放缓。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-red-300">商业化风险:</strong> AI应用落地缓慢，若长期无法找到规模化的付费场景，将反向抑制上游算力投资意愿。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-red-300">政策与竞争:</strong> 国际环境变化与技术限制构成威胁。行业内卷加剧可能导致价格战，侵蚀企业利润。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-red-300">认知偏差:</strong> 需警惕使用笼统的行业判断指导个股投资的风险，行业内部剧烈分化是核心特征。</li>
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</ul>
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</section>
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<!-- Data Sources Tab -->
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<section x-data="{ tab: 'news' }" class="glass-card p-6 bento-item lg:bento-item-col-12">
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<div role="tablist" class="tabs tabs-bordered tabs-lg">
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<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active text-violet-400': tab === 'news' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'news'">新闻速览</a>
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<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active text-violet-400': tab === 'roadshow' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'roadshow'">路演纪要</a>
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<a role="tab" class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active text-violet-400': tab === 'report' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'report'">研报精粹</a>
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</div>
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<div class="p-4 mt-4 min-h-[300px]">
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<div x-show="tab === 'news'" x-transition>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-gray-300 list-disc list-inside">
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<li><strong>TMT行业整体预喜：</strong> 招商证券、国联民生策略等研报均指出，TMT（尤其电子、半导体）是中报业绩预喜和上修的重点板块。</li>
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<li><strong>华丰科技 (连接器)：</strong> 业绩强力验证。上半年营收超去年全年，同比增长128%。通讯业务增长超2倍，主要得益于高速线模组放量。归母净利润1.51亿元，创历史新高。</li>
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<li><strong>网宿科技 (CDN)：</strong> 业绩分化。安全及增值服务同比增长13.96%，但主营CDN及边缘计算业务同比下滑4.03%。整体归母净利增长25.33%，体现了降本增效和业务结构优化的成果。</li>
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<li><strong>上游原材料信号：</strong> 藏格矿业受益于铜价强劲，投资收益大增，间接反映了TMT相关产业（如新能源车、消费电子）的部分需求。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'roadshow'" x-transition>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-gray-300 list-disc list-inside">
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<li><strong>宏观展望：</strong> 市场预期2025-2027年TMT将稳居A股涨幅前列。AI是核心产业基础，当前TMT整体估值仍处历史低位。</li>
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<li><strong>核心驱动：</strong> 算力投资是核心，2025年上半年全球算力投入将形成共振。国产算力将在2025年进入业绩兑现期，华为、字节跳动是核心牵引。</li>
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<li><strong>硬件高景气：</strong> 800G/1.6T光模块需求确认（新易盛、中际旭创）；国产AI芯片（寒武纪、海光信息）2025年放量可期；服务器订单饱满（浪潮信息）；IDC资本开支增长确定性强（润泽科技）。</li>
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<li><strong>应用端展望：</strong> 2025年AI应用成本将优化，B端Agent（汉得信息）和C端AI硬件（AI手机、AI玩具）是关键看点。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div x-show="tab === 'report'" x-transition>
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<ul class="space-y-3 text-gray-300 list-disc list-inside">
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<li><strong>电子半导体：</strong> AI PCB板需求持续上行（英伟达Blackwell及华为昇腾放量）。消费电子端侧AI趋势良好，果链淡季不淡。面板市场改善明显，需求强劲。</li>
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<li><strong>通信：</strong> 光模块海内外景气度高，海外市场为主的公司预计保持高速增长。温控环节（液冷）2025年将是高增长年份，在手订单充足。</li>
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<li><strong>计算机：</strong> AI芯片、服务器领域预计继续高增长。但AI应用端业绩增速稍慢，较难给软件公司带来实质性收入增量，商业化落地需后续季度观察。</li>
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<li><strong>传媒：</strong> 电影产业受益于春节档高景气（《哪吒2》）。广告市场处在恢复周期。AI+教育是重点关注方向。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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</main>
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<!-- Stock Data Table -->
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<section class="glass-card p-6 lg:p-8 mt-12">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-violet-300 mb-6 text-center">核心关联标的业绩前瞻</h2>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="table w-full">
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<thead>
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<tr class="text-violet-300 border-b border-violet-800/50">
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<th>股票名称</th>
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<th>股票代码</th>
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<th>细分赛道</th>
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<th class="text-right">2025H1业绩增速前瞻</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<!-- Data will be populated by JS or rendered server-side -->
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<script>
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const stockData = [
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{ stock: "寒武纪", stock_code: "688256", reason: "AI算力", other_labels: "5000%~5500% (营收)" },
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{ stock: "源杰科技", stock_code: "688498", reason: "光模块", other_labels: "200%~230% (归母净利润)" },
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{ stock: "芯动联科", stock_code: "688582", reason: "传感器", other_labels: "144%~199% (归母净利润)" },
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{ stock: "移远通信", stock_code: "603236", reason: "物联网模组", other_labels: "105%~120% (归母净利润)" },
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{ stock: "华勤技术", stock_code: "603296", reason: "AI算力", other_labels: "85%~95% (营收)" },
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{ stock: "和而泰", stock_code: "002402", reason: "智能控制器", other_labels: "85%~95% (归母净利润)" },
|
||
{ stock: "思瑞浦", stock_code: "688536", reason: "模拟芯片", other_labels: "70%~90% (营收)" },
|
||
{ stock: "精测电子", stock_code: "300567", reason: "半导体设备", other_labels: "70%~75% (营收)" },
|
||
{ stock: "海光信息", stock_code: "688041", reason: "AI算力", other_labels: "65%~70% (营收)" },
|
||
{ stock: "中际旭创", stock_code: "300308", reason: "光模块", other_labels: "45%~65% (归母净利润)" },
|
||
{ stock: "水晶光电", stock_code: "002273", reason: "消费电子", other_labels: "55% (营收)" },
|
||
{ stock: "工业富联", stock_code: "601138", reason: "AI算力", other_labels: "40%~42% (归母净利润)" },
|
||
{ stock: "华测导航", stock_code: "300627", reason: "高精度定位导航", other_labels: "38%~42% (归母净利润)" },
|
||
{ stock: "虹软科技", stock_code: "688088", reason: "AI应用", other_labels: "35%~45% (归母净利润)" },
|
||
{ stock: "北方华创", stock_code: "002371", reason: "半导体设备", other_labels: "33%~37% (营收)" },
|
||
{ stock: "立讯精密", stock_code: "002475", reason: "消费电子", other_labels: "20% (营收)" },
|
||
{ stock: "科大讯飞", stock_code: "002230", reason: "AI应用", other_labels: "20% (营收)" },
|
||
{ stock: "腾讯控股", stock_code: null, reason: "文娱", other_labels: "15% (归母净利润)" },
|
||
{ stock: "紫光股份", stock_code: "000938", reason: "ICT设备", other_labels: "10%~15% (营收)" },
|
||
{ stock: "金山办公", stock_code: "688111", reason: "AI应用", other_labels: "5%~10% (营收)" },
|
||
{ stock: "中兴通讯", stock_code: "000063", reason: "ICT设备", other_labels: "-5%~0% (归母净利润)" },
|
||
{ stock: "广联达", stock_code: "002410", reason: "AI应用", other_labels: "-5%~0% (营收)" },
|
||
{ stock: "歌尔股份", stock_code: "002241", reason: "消费电子", other_labels: "-10% (营收)" },
|
||
{ stock: "用友网络", stock_code: "600588", reason: "AI应用", other_labels: "-15% (营收)" },
|
||
{ stock: "传音控股", stock_code: "688036", reason: "消费电子", other_labels: "-15% (营收)" },
|
||
{ stock: "广和通", stock_code: "300638", reason: "物联网模组", other_labels: "-28%~-20% (归母净利润)" },
|
||
];
|
||
|
||
const tableBody = document.querySelector('table tbody');
|
||
stockData.forEach(item => {
|
||
const row = document.createElement('tr');
|
||
row.className = 'border-b border-gray-700/50 hover:bg-violet-500/10 transition-colors duration-300';
|
||
|
||
let growthValue = item.other_labels.match(/-?\d+/);
|
||
growthValue = growthValue ? parseInt(growthValue[0]) : 0;
|
||
let growthColorClass = 'text-gray-200';
|
||
if(growthValue > 30) growthColorClass = 'text-green-400 font-bold';
|
||
else if(growthValue > 0) growthColorClass = 'text-green-300';
|
||
else if (growthValue < 0) growthColorClass = 'text-red-400';
|
||
|
||
row.innerHTML = `
|
||
<td class="font-semibold">${item.stock}</td>
|
||
<td>
|
||
${item.stock_code ? `<a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=${item.stock_code}" target="_blank" class="text-cyan-400 hover:text-cyan-300 transition-colors">${item.stock_code}</a>` : 'N/A'}
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td>${item.reason}</td>
|
||
<td class="text-right ${growthColorClass}">${item.other_labels}</td>
|
||
`;
|
||
tableBody.appendChild(row);
|
||
});
|
||
</script>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function () {
|
||
var chartDom = document.getElementById('performanceChart');
|
||
var myChart = echarts.init(chartDom, 'dark');
|
||
var option;
|
||
|
||
const chartData = [
|
||
{ name: '寒武纪', value: 5250, type: 'AI算力' },
|
||
{ name: '源杰科技', value: 215, type: '光模块' },
|
||
{ name: '华勤技术', value: 90, type: 'AI算力' },
|
||
{ name: '工业富联', value: 41, type: 'AI算力' },
|
||
{ name: '科大讯飞', value: 20, type: 'AI应用' },
|
||
{ name: '金山办公', value: 7.5, type: 'AI应用' },
|
||
{ name: '中兴通讯', value: -2.5, type: 'ICT设备' },
|
||
{ name: '广联达', value: -2.5, type: 'AI应用' },
|
||
{ name: '用友网络', value: -15, type: 'AI应用' },
|
||
{ name: '广和通', value: -24, type: '物联网模组' },
|
||
];
|
||
|
||
option = {
|
||
backgroundColor: 'transparent',
|
||
title: {
|
||
text: 'TMT内部业绩预期分化 (2025H1增速)',
|
||
subtext: 'AI硬件 vs 传统软件/应用',
|
||
left: 'center',
|
||
textStyle: {
|
||
color: '#E0E6F1'
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
tooltip: {
|
||
trigger: 'axis',
|
||
axisPointer: { type: 'shadow' },
|
||
formatter: '{b}: {c}%'
|
||
},
|
||
grid: {
|
||
left: '3%',
|
||
right: '4%',
|
||
bottom: '3%',
|
||
containLabel: true
|
||
},
|
||
xAxis: {
|
||
type: 'category',
|
||
data: chartData.map(item => item.name),
|
||
axisLabel: {
|
||
color: '#A0AEC0',
|
||
rotate: 30
|
||
},
|
||
axisLine: {
|
||
lineStyle: {
|
||
color: 'rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.2)'
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
yAxis: {
|
||
type: 'value',
|
||
name: '业绩增速(%)',
|
||
axisLabel: {
|
||
color: '#A0AEC0'
|
||
},
|
||
splitLine: {
|
||
lineStyle: {
|
||
color: 'rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1)'
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
axisLine: {
|
||
show: true,
|
||
lineStyle: {
|
||
color: 'rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.2)'
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
},
|
||
series: [
|
||
{
|
||
name: '业绩增速',
|
||
type: 'bar',
|
||
data: chartData.map(item => ({
|
||
value: item.value,
|
||
itemStyle: {
|
||
color: new echarts.graphic.LinearGradient(0, 0, 0, 1, [
|
||
{ offset: 0, color: item.value > 0 ? '#4ADE80' : '#F87171' },
|
||
{ offset: 1, color: item.value > 0 ? '#3B82F6' : '#EF4444' }
|
||
]),
|
||
shadowColor: 'rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5)',
|
||
shadowBlur: 10
|
||
}
|
||
})),
|
||
barWidth: '60%',
|
||
emphasis: {
|
||
itemStyle: {
|
||
color: new echarts.graphic.LinearGradient(0, 0, 0, 1, [
|
||
{ offset: 0, color: '#818CF8' },
|
||
{ offset: 1, color: '#A78BFA' }
|
||
])
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
]
|
||
};
|
||
myChart.setOption(option);
|
||
window.addEventListener('resize', () => { myChart.resize(); });
|
||
});
|
||
</script>
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html> |