520 lines
24 KiB
HTML
520 lines
24 KiB
HTML
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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN">
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<head>
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<meta charset="utf-8" />
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1, shrink-to-fit=no">
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<title>无人驾驶-线控转向行业洞察</title>
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<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:wght@300;400;500;600;700;800&display=swap" rel="stylesheet" />
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@5/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@tailwindcss/browser@4"></script>
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<link rel="stylesheet" href="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/font-awesome/6.4.0/css/all.min.css">
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<style>
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body {
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font-family: 'Inter', sans-serif;
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, #0f172a 0%, #1e293b 100%);
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min-height: 100vh;
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}
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.card-gradient {
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, #1e293b 0%, #334155 100%);
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border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
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}
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.text-gradient {
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background: linear-gradient(90deg, #3b82f6, #8b5cf6);
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-webkit-background-clip: text;
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-webkit-text-fill-color: transparent;
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background-clip: text;
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position: relative;
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.timeline-dot::before {
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content: '';
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border-radius: 50%;
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background-color: #3b82f6;
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}
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.timeline-line {
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position: absolute;
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width: 2px;
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background-color: #334155;
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.timeline-item:last-child .timeline-line {
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display: none;
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}
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.table-card {
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overflow-x: auto;
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}
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.tech-badge {
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background: rgba(59, 130, 246, 0.1);
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border: 1px solid rgba(59, 130, 246, 0.3);
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}
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.risk-badge {
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background: rgba(239, 68, 68, 0.1);
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border: 1px solid rgba(239, 68, 68, 0.3);
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}
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.opportunity-badge {
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background: rgba(16, 185, 129, 0.1);
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border: 1px solid rgba(16, 185, 129, 0.3);
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}
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.hover-scale {
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transition: transform 0.3s ease;
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}
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.hover-scale:hover {
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transform: scale(1.02);
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}
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.floating {
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animation: floating 3s ease-in-out infinite;
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}
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@keyframes floating {
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0% { transform: translate(0, 0px); }
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50% { transform: translate(0, -10px); }
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100% { transform: translate(0, 0px); }
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="text-gray-100">
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<div id="particles-js" class="fixed inset-0 z-0"></div>
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<div class="container mx-auto px-4 py-8 relative z-10">
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<!-- 标题部分 -->
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<div class="text-center mb-12">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-5xl font-bold mb-4 text-gradient">无人驾驶-线控转向</h1>
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<p class="text-lg md:text-xl text-gray-300 max-w-3xl mx-auto">
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自动驾驶L3及以上级别的核心执行技术，通过电子信号替代方向盘与车轮的机械连接，实现转向解耦
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</p>
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<div class="mt-6 flex justify-center space-x-4">
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<span class="tech-badge px-4 py-1 rounded-full text-sm">L3+自动驾驶</span>
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<span class="tech-badge px-4 py-1 rounded-full text-sm">电子信号控制</span>
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<span class="tech-badge px-4 py-1 rounded-full text-sm">转向解耦技术</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 概念事件时间轴 -->
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<div class="card-gradient rounded-xl p-6 mb-8 hover-scale">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 text-gradient flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-history mr-3"></i>概念事件时间轴
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</h2>
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<div class="ml-8">
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<div class="timeline-item relative mb-6">
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<div class="timeline-line"></div>
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<div class="timeline-dot">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-blue-400">2022年1月</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300">中国实施GB 17675-2021，删除"不得装用全动力转向机构"限制，法规松绑</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item relative mb-6">
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<div class="timeline-line"></div>
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<div class="timeline-dot">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-blue-400">2022年4月</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300">中国汽车工程学会发布《线控转向技术路线图》，明确2025年渗透率5%、2030年30%的目标</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item relative mb-6">
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<div class="timeline-line"></div>
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<div class="timeline-dot">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-blue-400">2024年12月</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300">蔚来ET9获中国首个线控转向量产许可，成为国家标准制定核心成员</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item relative mb-6">
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<div class="timeline-line"></div>
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<div class="timeline-dot">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-blue-400">2025年3月</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300">小米"曼岛项目"预计定点线控转向，2026年量产</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item relative">
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<div class="timeline-dot">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-blue-400">2025年6月</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300">特斯拉Robotaxi在奥斯汀试运营，采用无方向盘设计，依赖线控转向</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心观点摘要 -->
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<div class="card-gradient rounded-xl p-6 mb-8 hover-scale">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-gradient flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-lightbulb mr-3"></i>核心观点摘要
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</h2>
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<div class="bg-blue-900/20 rounded-lg p-4 border border-blue-500/30">
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<p class="text-gray-200 leading-relaxed">
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线控转向正处于<strong class="text-blue-400">"法规落地+技术验证"向"量产爆发"过渡的关键节点</strong>。短期看，2025-2026年蔚来、理想、特斯拉、小米等头部车企的量产车型将驱动渗透率从<strong class="text-blue-400"><5%跃升至10%+</strong>；长期看，其作为L4自动驾驶的"标配硬件"，2030年市场规模有望突破<strong class="text-blue-400">200亿元</strong>（2024年仅32亿元）。当前市场预期差在于：<strong class="text-purple-400">技术成熟度被低估（冗余设计已达标），而成本下降速度超预期（2025年单价或降至3000元以下）</strong>。
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</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心驱动力与市场热度 -->
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 mb-8">
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<div class="card-gradient rounded-xl p-6 hover-scale">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-gradient flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-rocket mr-2"></i>核心驱动力
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</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3">
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-check-circle text-green-400 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
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<div>
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<p class="font-medium">技术突破</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">冗余设计（双ECU/双电机）通过ISO 26262 ASIL-D认证，安全性媲美机械系统</p>
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</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-check-circle text-green-400 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
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<div>
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<p class="font-medium">政策强制</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">中国L3法规要求方向盘可折叠/隐藏，线控转向是唯一解</p>
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</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-check-circle text-green-400 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
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<div>
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<p class="font-medium">成本拐点</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">规模化生产推动单价从6000元降至3000元，接近传统EPS的2倍价差可接受</p>
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</div>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="card-gradient rounded-xl p-6 hover-scale">
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<h3 class="text-xl font-bold mb-4 text-gradient flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-chart-line mr-2"></i>市场热度与情绪
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</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3">
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-file-alt text-blue-400 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
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<div>
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<p class="font-medium">研报密集度</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">2024Q3以来，天风、国联、海通等10+家券商发布深度报告，一致预期2025年为"量产元年"</p>
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</div>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-balance-scale text-purple-400 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
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<div>
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<p class="font-medium">情绪分歧</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">乐观派认为2026年出货量将超100万套；谨慎派担忧法规滞后或成本下降不及预期</p>
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</div>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 关键催化剂 -->
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<div class="card-gradient rounded-xl p-6 mb-8 hover-scale">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-gradient flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-fire mr-3"></i>关键催化剂与未来发展路径
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</h2>
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<div class="mb-6">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3 text-blue-400">近期催化剂（3-6个月）</h3>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-4">
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<div class="bg-blue-900/20 rounded-lg p-4 border border-blue-500/30">
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<div class="text-blue-400 font-bold mb-2">小米定点落地</div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">2025年3月：曼岛平台SUV/轿车线控转向订单确认，预计单车价值量250美元（耐世特独家供应）</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-blue-900/20 rounded-lg p-4 border border-blue-500/30">
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<div class="text-blue-400 font-bold mb-2">特斯拉Robotaxi规模交付</div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">2025年6月：奥斯汀试点扩至50平方公里，验证无方向盘场景下的线控转向可靠性</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-blue-900/20 rounded-lg p-4 border border-blue-500/30">
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<div class="text-blue-400 font-bold mb-2">国标细则发布</div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">2025年Q2预计出台线控转向功能安全补充条款，明确冗余要求，消除车企合规顾虑</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3 text-purple-400">长期发展路径</h3>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-4">
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<div class="bg-purple-900/20 rounded-lg p-4 border border-purple-500/30">
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<div class="text-purple-400 font-bold mb-2">2025-2027年</div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">高端车型标配（理想L9、极氪001换代），渗透率从5%→15%，ASP维持3000-4000元</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-purple-900/20 rounded-lg p-4 border border-purple-500/30">
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<div class="text-purple-400 font-bold mb-2">2028-2030年</div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">成本降至2000元以下，下沉至20万级主流车型，渗透率突破30%，市场规模达200亿元（中性假设）</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 产业链与核心公司 -->
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<div class="card-gradient rounded-xl p-6 mb-8 hover-scale">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-gradient flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-sitemap mr-3"></i>产业链与核心公司深度剖析
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</h2>
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<div class="mb-6">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3 text-blue-400">产业链图谱</h3>
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<div class="flex flex-wrap justify-center gap-4">
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<div class="bg-blue-900/20 rounded-lg p-4 border border-blue-500/30 flex-1 min-w-[200px]">
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<div class="text-blue-400 font-bold mb-2 text-center">上游</div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 text-center">无刷电机（德昌股份）、扭矩传感器（保隆科技）、滚珠丝杠（五洲新春）</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-purple-900/20 rounded-lg p-4 border border-purple-500/30 flex-1 min-w-[200px]">
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<div class="text-purple-400 font-bold mb-2 text-center">中游</div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 text-center">系统集成（耐世特、博世、舍弗勒）</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-green-900/20 rounded-lg p-4 border border-green-500/30 flex-1 min-w-[200px]">
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<div class="text-green-400 font-bold mb-2 text-center">下游</div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 text-center">整车厂（特斯拉、理想、蔚来、小米）</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3 text-blue-400">核心玩家对比</h3>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="min-w-full bg-gray-800/50 rounded-lg">
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<thead>
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<tr class="bg-gray-700/50">
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<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">公司</th>
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<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">竞争优势</th>
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<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">风险点</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr class="border-b border-gray-700">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium text-blue-400">耐世特</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">全球首个量产SBW（丰田BZ4X），手握特斯拉+理想+极氪+小米5个定点，2026年出货百万套</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">亚太区毛利率仅12%，价格战压力</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="border-b border-gray-700">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium text-blue-400">伯特利</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">收购万达转向，2026年推出完整线控底盘方案，绑定比亚迪</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">技术验证进度慢于预期</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="border-b border-gray-700">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium text-blue-400">浙江世宝</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">A股唯一纯转向标的，C-EPS向R-EPS升级，2026年SBW量产</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">低端产品占比高，ASP提升有限</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium text-blue-400">拓普集团</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">线控底盘全栈能力（转向+制动+悬架），特斯拉核心供应商</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">转向业务占比低，弹性不足</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 潜在风险与挑战 -->
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<div class="card-gradient rounded-xl p-6 mb-8 hover-scale">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-gradient flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-exclamation-triangle mr-3"></i>潜在风险与挑战
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</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-4">
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<div class="bg-red-900/20 rounded-lg p-4 border border-red-500/30">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3 text-red-400">技术风险</h3>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">路感模拟算法：国内厂商（如浙江世宝）尚未解决颠簸路面下的力反馈失真问题，可能影响L3用户体验</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-red-900/20 rounded-lg p-4 border border-red-500/30">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3 text-red-400">商业化风险</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">成本敏感车型：10万级车型需线控转向成本<1500元，当前方案无法满足（2025年最低3000元）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg-red-900/20 rounded-lg p-4 border border-red-500/30">
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3 text-red-400">政策风险</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">L3法规延迟：若2025年L3准入政策推迟，车企可能延后线控转向上车计划</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="mt-4 bg-yellow-900/20 rounded-lg p-4 border border-yellow-500/30">
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-2 text-yellow-400">信息矛盾</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">凌云股份公告明确"无线控转向收入"，但此前互动易称"已开展研发"，存在概念炒作嫌疑</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 综合结论与投资启示 -->
|
||
<div class="card-gradient rounded-xl p-6 mb-8 hover-scale">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-gradient flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-chart-pie mr-3"></i>综合结论与投资启示
|
||
</h2>
|
||
|
||
<div class="mb-6">
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3 text-blue-400">阶段判断</h3>
|
||
<div class="bg-blue-900/20 rounded-lg p-4 border border-blue-500/30">
|
||
<p class="text-gray-200">线控转向已从<strong class="text-blue-400">主题炒作</strong>（2022-2023年）进入<strong class="text-blue-400">基本面驱动</strong>阶段，2025年订单和出货量将验证商业化可行性</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3 text-green-400">投资方向</h3>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-4">
|
||
<div class="bg-green-900/20 rounded-lg p-4 border border-green-500/30">
|
||
<div class="text-green-400 font-bold mb-2">最纯标的</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300"><strong class="text-green-400">耐世特（HK01316）</strong>——特斯拉Robotaxi唯一供应链，2026年百万套出货弹性最大，当前估值仅15倍2025E PE</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-green-900/20 rounded-lg p-4 border border-green-500/30">
|
||
<div class="text-green-400 font-bold mb-2">弹性环节</div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300"><strong class="text-green-400">德昌股份（605555）</strong>——无刷电机供应商，绑定耐世特+博世，2025年电机出货有望翻倍</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="mt-6">
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold mb-3 text-purple-400">跟踪指标</h3>
|
||
<ol class="list-decimal list-inside space-y-2 text-gray-300">
|
||
<li>耐世特2025年H1中国区线控转向出货量（目标>10万套）</li>
|
||
<li>小米汽车2025年Q3财报中"智能驾驶硬件成本"占比（验证线控转向单价是否降至3000元以下）</li>
|
||
<li>GB 17675-2021补充条款发布时间（政策催化信号）</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 关联股票表格 -->
|
||
<div class="card-gradient rounded-xl p-6 mb-8 hover-scale">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-gradient flex items-center">
|
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<i class="fas fa-table mr-3"></i>关联股票
|
||
</h2>
|
||
|
||
<div class="table-card">
|
||
<table class="min-w-full bg-gray-800/50 rounded-lg">
|
||
<thead>
|
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<tr class="bg-gray-700/50">
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">股票名称</th>
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">技术</th>
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">产品</th>
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">应用领域/产能</th>
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">项目进展/客户合作</th>
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">资料来源</th>
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">投资理由</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-700">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium text-blue-400">博世科</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">智慧环卫团队具备线控底盘开发的相关技术</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">研发出广西首款5G多功能智能扫路机</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">-</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">-</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">搜互动</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">研发出广西首款5G多功能智能扫路机</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-700">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium text-blue-400">合兴股份</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">-</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">应用于线控制动和线控转向领域的产品</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">L3级别的自动驾驶<br>转向系统控制单元年500万套</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">-</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">搜互动/公告</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">产品应用于L3自动驾驶且具备量产产能</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-700">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium text-blue-400">经纬恒润</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">掌握高可靠性无人驾驶线控底盘等自动驾驶运营系统全部核心技术</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">-</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">-</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">-</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">公司调研</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">掌握无人驾驶线控底盘核心技术</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-700">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium text-blue-400">浙江世宝</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">-</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">-</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">-</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">线控转向领域深耕多年<br>获得多家主流车企定点<br>部分项目预计2026年量产</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">公司调研</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">与主流车企合作并规划量产时间</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium text-blue-400">万朗磁塑</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">-</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">-</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">-</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">子公司国太阳线控转向系统(SBW)<br>预研产品设计方案获主机厂认可<br>取得定点</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">公司调研</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 text-sm">子公司产品获主机厂认证并取得定点</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
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