577 lines
36 KiB
HTML
577 lines
36 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>地平线 (Horizon Robotics) - 深度投研报告</title>
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<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.11.1/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<style>
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:root {
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--glow-color-1: rgba(79, 70, 229, 0.6); /* Indigo */
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body {
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font-family: 'Noto Sans SC', sans-serif;
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background-color: #0c0a1a;
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background-image:
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radial-gradient(ellipse 80% 80% at 50% -20%, rgba(124, 58, 237, 0.3), transparent),
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font-family: 'Space Grotesk', sans-serif;
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background: var(--glass-bg);
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border-radius: 2rem;
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.daisy-collapse-title {
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font-weight: 500;
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="min-h-screen">
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<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8">
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<!-- Header -->
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<header class="text-center py-12 px-4">
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<h1 class="text-5xl md:text-7xl font-bold font-fui glow-text tracking-tighter">地平线 (Horizon Robotics)</h1>
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<p class="mt-4 text-xl md:text-2xl text-gray-300 font-fui">深度行业研究报告</p>
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<div class="mt-6 text-sm text-gray-500 font-light">
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<p>北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现</p>
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<p>本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。</p>
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</div>
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</header>
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<main class="space-y-12">
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<!-- Insight Section -->
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<section id="insight">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold font-fui mb-6 text-center">核心洞察 & 战略分析</h2>
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<div class="bento-grid">
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<!-- Core Logic -->
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<div class="bento-item-1 p-8 glass-card">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold font-fui mb-4 text-indigo-300">核心投资逻辑</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">
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地平线正处在从“国产ADAS芯片龙头”向“全球智能驾驶解决方案核心供应商”转型的关键跃升期。其核心驱动力源于<strong class="text-cyan-300">“技术性价比+商业模式灵活性”</strong>双轮驱动下对国内市场的深度渗透。未来，公司的增长潜力取决于<strong class="text-pink-300">征程6高阶芯片的放量速度、HSD软件方案的市场认可度，以及全球化战略的执行成效</strong>。地平线通过“算法定义芯片”的软硬协同设计，实现了极高的计算效率（BPU利用率高达85%，远超GPU），在同等性能下具备显著成本优势，完美契合当前“智驾平权”的产业趋势。
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</p>
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</div>
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<!-- Market Sentiment -->
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<div class="bento-item-2 p-8 glass-card">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold font-fui mb-4 text-indigo-300">市场热度与情绪</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-300 leading-relaxed">
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市场情绪整体<strong class="text-green-400">乐观但伴随对盈利能力的审慎观察</strong>。市场普遍认可其在中国市场的领导地位和技术实力，对其高营收增长和市场份额给予积极反馈。但同时，对其持续的巨额亏损和高研发投入也存在担忧，<strong class="text-yellow-300">盈利拐点（预计2027年）</strong>是当前市场关注的核心。
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</p>
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</div>
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<!-- Expectation Gap -->
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<div class="bento-item-3 p-8 glass-card">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold font-fui mb-4 text-indigo-300">预期差分析</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-3 list-disc list-inside text-gray-300">
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-400">盈利模型变化：</strong> 随着J6系列放量，2025年硬件（芯片）收入占比预计升至60%，可能拉低当前高达77%的综合毛利率，市场或未充分消化此结构变化。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-400">竞争格局演变：</strong> 市场可能低估了高通凭借座舱优势向驾舱一体化渗透的威胁，以及核心客户（如理想、比亚迪）自研能力增强后对高毛利软件服务采购的长期潜在风险。</li>
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<li><strong class="text-cyan-400">机器人业务价值：</strong> 分拆的“地瓜机器人”业务被视为远期期权，当前市场尚未给予充分定价，存在价值发现的预期差。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<!-- Catalysts -->
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<div class="bento-item-4 p-8 glass-card">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold font-fui mb-4 text-indigo-300">关键催化剂</h3>
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<div class="space-y-3">
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<div>
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<p class="font-semibold text-pink-300">近期 (3-6个月)</p>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside text-sm text-gray-400">
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<li>征程6系列大规模上车及市场反馈。</li>
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<li>HSD方案首发（奇瑞星途）量产表现。</li>
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<li>新增高阶车型（J6P）定点公告。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<p class="font-semibold text-pink-300">长期 (2026+)</p>
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside text-sm text-gray-400">
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<li>与大众、博世等国际合作项目落地，验证全球化能力。</li>
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<li>2027年实现调整后净利润转正。</li>
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<li>机器人业务开始贡献可观收入。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Timeline -->
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<div class="bento-item-5 p-8 glass-card">
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<h3 class="text-2xl font-bold font-fui mb-6 text-center text-indigo-300">发展路径与时间轴</h3>
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<ul class="timeline timeline-snap-icon max-md:timeline-compact timeline-vertical">
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<li>
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<div class="timeline-middle">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.06 0l4.001-5.5a.75.75 0 00-.163-1.214z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-start md:text-end mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic">2020-2023</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black">量产突破期</div>
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征程系列芯片与理想、比亚迪等深度绑定，营收年复合增长率达82.3%，成功渗透市场。
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</div>
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<hr/>
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</li>
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<li>
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<hr/>
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<div class="timeline-middle">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.06 0l4.001-5.5a.75.75 0 00-.163-1.214z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-end mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic">2024</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black">资本化与技术迭代期</div>
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推出征程6系列芯片，获比亚迪平台化定点。于港交所成功IPO， 확보百亿现金储备。
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</div>
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<hr/>
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</li>
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<li>
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<hr/>
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<div class="timeline-middle">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.06 0l4.001-5.5a.75.75 0 00-.163-1.214z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-start md:text-end mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic">2025</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black">高阶智驾落地与全球化元年</div>
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发布端到端HSD方案并与奇瑞合作量产。J6系列大规模上车。纳入港股通。
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</div>
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<hr/>
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</li>
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<li>
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<hr/>
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<div class="timeline-middle">
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<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.06 0l4.001-5.5a.75.75 0 00-.163-1.214z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-end mb-10">
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<time class="font-mono italic">2026-2027</time>
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<div class="text-lg font-black">全球化拓展与盈利验证期</div>
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与大众、博世等合作项目将陆续量产，开启全球化扩张。力争2027年实现调整后净利润扭亏为盈。
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</div>
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<hr/>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Data Visualizations -->
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<section id="charts">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold font-fui mb-6 text-center">关键数据可视化</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div class="glass-card p-6 min-h-[400px]" id="revenueChart"></div>
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<div class="glass-card p-6 min-h-[400px]" id="marketShareChart"></div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Data Deep Dive -->
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<section id="data-dive" x-data="{ tab: 'news' }">
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<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold font-fui mb-6 text-center">数据深度挖掘</h2>
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<div class="glass-card p-4 sm:p-8">
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<div role="tablist" class="tabs tabs-bordered tabs-lg justify-center">
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<a role="tab" class="daisy-tab" :class="{ 'daisy-tab-active': tab === 'news' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'news'">新闻摘要</a>
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<a role="tab" class="daisy-tab" :class="{ 'daisy-tab-active': tab === 'roadshow' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'roadshow'">路演精粹</a>
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<a role="tab" class="daisy-tab" :class="{ 'daisy-tab-active': tab === 'reports' }" @click.prevent="tab = 'reports'">研报观点</a>
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</div>
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<div class="mt-8 space-y-2">
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<!-- News Tab Content -->
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<div x-show="tab === 'news'">
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-base-200/50">
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<input type="radio" name="news-accordion" checked="checked" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">市场地位与业绩</div>
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<div class="collapse-content">
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1 text-gray-300">
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<li><strong>市场份额:</strong> 2024上半年在中国自主车厂ADAS市占率35.9%，位列第一。2023年中高阶市占率35.5%，仅次于NVIDIA。</li>
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<li><strong>出货量:</strong> J系列累计出货量突破800万颗，量产上市车型超过200款，合作车企达27家。</li>
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<li><strong>财务概览:</strong> 2024年收入23.84亿元(同比+53.6%)；2024H1收入9.35亿元(同比+151.6%)，经调整净亏损8.0亿元，持续收窄。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-base-200/50">
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<input type="radio" name="news-accordion" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">核心产品与技术</div>
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<div class="collapse-content">
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1 text-gray-300">
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<li><strong>地平线HSD:</strong> L2城区辅助驾驶系统，采用端到端架构+强化学习，延迟降低25%-50%。已定点奇瑞星途(25Q3量产)、大众中国(26年量产)。</li>
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<li><strong>征程6系列芯片:</strong> 全阶方案，算力覆盖10-560TOPS。J6P(560TOPS)为最高阶，J6M(128TOPS)率先上车比亚迪，J6E(80TOPS)。已获比亚迪、上汽、大众、理想等定点。</li>
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<li><strong>技术优势:</strong> 软硬兼备，芯片算力利用率约85%(高于英伟达30%)，开放灵活的商业模式(可白盒交付)。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-base-200/50">
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<input type="radio" name="news-accordion" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">合作与生态</div>
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<div class="collapse-content">
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1 text-gray-300">
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<li><strong>国内车企:</strong> 与奇瑞(HSD首发)、比亚迪(J6首发)、理想、吉利等深度合作。</li>
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<li><strong>国际巨头:</strong> 与大众成立合资公司酷睿程；与采埃孚(ZF)联合开发L3系统(26年量产)；与博世、电装、大陆等合作加速出海。</li>
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<li><strong>机器人业务:</strong> 地瓜机器人(D-Robotics)已分拆融资，定位机器人时代的“Wintel”。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- Roadshow Tab Content -->
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<div x-show="tab === 'roadshow'">
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-base-200/50">
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<input type="radio" name="roadshow-accordion" checked="checked" />
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<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">定位、战略与商业模式</div>
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<div class="collapse-content">
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<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1 text-gray-300">
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<li><strong>定位:</strong> Tier 2供应商，国产自动驾驶芯片领导者，目标成为车规级“Windows”。</li>
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<li><strong>核心优势:</strong> 性价比高，软件生态完善，软硬一体化，自研BPU架构迭代领先。</li>
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<li><strong>商业模式:</strong> 解决方案交付(软硬一体)和技术授权服务(IP授权/白盒模式)。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-base-200/50">
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<input type="radio" name="roadshow-accordion" />
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||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">财务预测与目标</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1 text-gray-300">
|
||
<li><strong>收入预测:</strong> 2025年~35亿元(增速~50%)；2026年目标50亿元；2027年~85亿元。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>出货量预测:</strong> 2024年290万片；2025年预计400万片。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>盈利拐点:</strong> 预计2027年扭亏为盈，或在收入>80亿元时EBIT转正。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>远期目标 (2030):</strong> 乐观情景收入300-350亿元，净利润100亿元。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-base-200/50">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="roadshow-accordion" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">竞争格局与管理层观点</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1 text-gray-300">
|
||
<li><strong>对车企自研:</strong> 管理层认为终局是“二八分布”(20%自研, 80%第三方)。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>对英伟达:</strong> 征程5效能为Orin的5倍；勾6P(J6P)性能对标Orin/Thor，但成本更低。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>对Mobileye:</strong> 成功打破其国内垄断，市场份额被持续挤压。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>核心壁垒:</strong> 软硬结合能力与迭代速度。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Reports Tab Content -->
|
||
<div x-show="tab === 'reports'">
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-base-200/50">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="reports-accordion" checked="checked" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">综合观点与评级</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<p class="mb-2 text-gray-300">多数研报认为地平线作为稀缺的、具备灵活合作模式的独立第三方智驾解决方案商，将充分享受行业红利。随着征程6系列芯片逐步量产上车，公司迎来行业浪潮和自身产品新周期共振。普遍给予“推荐”或“优于大市”评级。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-base-200/50">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="reports-accordion" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">财务预测汇总</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1 text-gray-300">
|
||
<li><strong>营收预测 (2025-2027 CAGR 52%):</strong> 2025E(35.9亿), 2026E(54.8亿), 2027E(100.0亿)。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>盈利预测:</strong> 普遍预测2025-2026年持续亏损，2027年实现盈利(约4.5亿元)。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>估值:</strong> 研报多采用PS估值法，给予2025年30-35倍动态PS。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse collapse-plus bg-base-200/50">
|
||
<input type="radio" name="reports-accordion" />
|
||
<div class="collapse-title text-xl font-medium">核心风险提示</div>
|
||
<div class="collapse-content">
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1 text-red-400">
|
||
<li><strong>技术研发风险:</strong> 若最新软硬件服务不能跟上行业技术发展节奏，存在无法收回前期高额投入的风险。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>市场竞争加剧:</strong> 面临英伟达、高通、华为及整车厂自研芯片的冲击。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>客户集中度风险:</strong> 2024年前五大客户收入占比78%，过度依赖大客户。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>地缘政治风险:</strong> 依赖台积电等代工厂，先进制程可能面临不确定性。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock Ecosystem Section -->
|
||
<section id="stock-ecosystem">
|
||
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold font-fui mb-6 text-center">产业链核心标的</h2>
|
||
<div class="glass-card overflow-x-auto p-4 sm:p-6">
|
||
<table class="table table-zebra-zebra bg-transparent w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr class="font-fui text-base text-gray-300">
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>股票代码</th>
|
||
<th>核心逻辑</th>
|
||
<th>市值</th>
|
||
<th>近三个月涨幅</th>
|
||
<th>PE倍数</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>索菱股份</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002766" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002766</a></td>
|
||
<td>基于地平线征程系列产品，推出智能驾驶域控制器系列产品与解决方案。</td>
|
||
<td>52亿</td>
|
||
<td class="text-green-400">25.2%</td>
|
||
<td>102</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>四维图新</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002405" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002405</a></td>
|
||
<td>公司基于地平线征程2和征程3的智驾方案已实现规模性量产，合作关系深厚。</td>
|
||
<td>235亿</td>
|
||
<td class="text-green-400">52.8%</td>
|
||
<td class="text-yellow-400">亏损</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>均胜电子</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600699" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">600699</a></td>
|
||
<td>与地平线达成战略合作，发布了基于征程5和征程3芯片的Drive产品。</td>
|
||
<td>234亿</td>
|
||
<td class="text-green-400">13.0%</td>
|
||
<td>18</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>中科创达</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300496" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">300496</a></td>
|
||
<td>与地平线签署战略合作协议，作为软件赋能者，业务增长与地平线生态繁荣正相关。</td>
|
||
<td>287亿</td>
|
||
<td class="text-green-400">43.0%</td>
|
||
<td>157</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>亚太股份</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002284" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002284</a></td>
|
||
<td>与地平线签署战略合作协议，公司产品（如底盘）有使用地平线的国产芯片。</td>
|
||
<td>59亿</td>
|
||
<td class="text-green-400">11.5%</td>
|
||
<td>44</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>奥比中光</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688322" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">688322</a></td>
|
||
<td>与地平线、地瓜机器人达成战略合作，共同打通机器人“眼”与“脑”协同的核心环节。</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>联创电子</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002036" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">002036</a></td>
|
||
<td>重视与地平线等客户的战略合作，是光学镜头核心供应商。</td>
|
||
<td>99亿</td>
|
||
<td class="text-green-400">40.0%</td>
|
||
<td class="text-yellow-400">亏损</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>高新兴</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300098" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">300098</a></td>
|
||
<td>与地平线签订战略合作协议。</td>
|
||
<td>92亿</td>
|
||
<td class="text-green-400">29.0%</td>
|
||
<td class="text-yellow-400">亏损</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>光庭信息</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301221" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">301221</a></td>
|
||
<td>公司产品适配于地平线等多种芯片，提供软件适配服务。</td>
|
||
<td>50亿</td>
|
||
<td class="text-green-400">43.0%</td>
|
||
<td class="text-yellow-400">亏损</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>华联股份</td>
|
||
<td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=000882" target="_blank" class="link link-hover text-cyan-400">000882</a></td>
|
||
<td>公司间接参股少量地平线股权。</td>
|
||
<td>42亿</td>
|
||
<td class="text-green-400">36.0%</td>
|
||
<td>144</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</main>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
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|
||
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|
||
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|
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|
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|
||
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
||
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|
||
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|
||
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|
||
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|
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|
||
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||
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
||
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|
||
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html> |