513 lines
41 KiB
HTML
513 lines
41 KiB
HTML
<!DOCTYPE html>
|
||
<html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="night">
|
||
<head>
|
||
<meta charset="UTF-8">
|
||
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
|
||
<title>深度行研：科特估半导体</title>
|
||
<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
|
||
<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@4.10.2/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
|
||
<script defer src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/alpinejs@3.x.x/dist/cdn.min.js"></script>
|
||
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/echarts@5.5.0/dist/echarts.min.js"></script>
|
||
<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com">
|
||
<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.gstatic.com" crossorigin>
|
||
<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:wght@300;400;500;600;700&family=Source+Code+Pro:wght@400;600&display=swap" rel="stylesheet">
|
||
<style>
|
||
:root {
|
||
--glow-color-1: rgba(0, 225, 255, 0.5);
|
||
--glow-color-2: rgba(192, 72, 255, 0.5);
|
||
}
|
||
body {
|
||
font-family: 'Inter', sans-serif;
|
||
background-color: #030014;
|
||
background-image:
|
||
radial-gradient(at 27% 37%, hsla(215, 98%, 61%, 0.1) 0px, transparent 50%),
|
||
radial-gradient(at 97% 21%, hsla(125, 98%, 72%, 0.1) 0px, transparent 50%),
|
||
radial-gradient(at 52% 99%, hsla(355, 98%, 76%, 0.1) 0px, transparent 50%),
|
||
radial-gradient(at 10% 29%, hsla(256, 96%, 68%, 0.1) 0px, transparent 50%),
|
||
radial-gradient(at 97% 96%, hsla(38, 60%, 74%, 0.1) 0px, transparent 50%),
|
||
radial-gradient(at 33% 50%, hsla(222, 67%, 73%, 0.1) 0px, transparent 50%),
|
||
radial-gradient(at 79% 53%, hsla(343, 68%, 79%, 0.1) 0px, transparent 50%);
|
||
color: #e0e0e0;
|
||
}
|
||
.glass-card {
|
||
background: rgba(10, 8, 28, 0.6);
|
||
backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
|
||
-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(20px);
|
||
border: 1px solid rgba(100, 100, 150, 0.2);
|
||
transition: all 0.3s ease;
|
||
}
|
||
.glass-card:hover {
|
||
background: rgba(15, 12, 38, 0.7);
|
||
border: 1px solid rgba(120, 120, 170, 0.3);
|
||
transform: translateY(-5px);
|
||
}
|
||
.bento-grid {
|
||
display: grid;
|
||
gap: 1rem;
|
||
grid-template-columns: repeat(12, 1fr);
|
||
}
|
||
.bento-item {
|
||
border-radius: 1.5rem;
|
||
padding: 1.5rem;
|
||
}
|
||
.fui-header {
|
||
font-family: 'Source Code Pro', monospace;
|
||
text-shadow: 0 0 5px var(--glow-color-1), 0 0 10px var(--glow-color-1);
|
||
}
|
||
.highlight-text {
|
||
color: #82aaff;
|
||
}
|
||
.accent-text {
|
||
color: #c792ea;
|
||
}
|
||
::-webkit-scrollbar {
|
||
width: 8px;
|
||
}
|
||
::-webkit-scrollbar-track {
|
||
background: #030014;
|
||
}
|
||
::-webkit-scrollbar-thumb {
|
||
background-color: rgba(100, 100, 150, 0.3);
|
||
border-radius: 4px;
|
||
}
|
||
::-webkit-scrollbar-thumb:hover {
|
||
background-color: rgba(120, 120, 170, 0.5);
|
||
}
|
||
.daisy-collapse-title, .daisy-collapse > input[type=checkbox] {
|
||
min-height: auto !important;
|
||
padding: 1rem 1.5rem;
|
||
}
|
||
.table thead th {
|
||
background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.05);
|
||
}
|
||
</style>
|
||
</head>
|
||
<body class="antialiased min-h-screen">
|
||
<div class="container mx-auto p-4 md:p-8 max-w-7xl">
|
||
|
||
<!-- Header -->
|
||
<header class="text-center mb-12">
|
||
<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-6xl font-bold fui-header text-transparent bg-clip-text bg-gradient-to-r from-cyan-300 via-purple-400 to-pink-400 pb-2">
|
||
科特估半导体 · 深度行研
|
||
</h1>
|
||
<p class="mt-4 text-lg text-gray-400">安全（国产替代）与成长（AI驱动+周期复苏）双轮驱动下的价值重估体系</p>
|
||
<div class="mt-4 text-xs text-gray-500 font-mono tracking-wider">
|
||
<p>北京价值前沿科技有限公司 AI投研agent：“价小前投研” 进行投研呈现</p>
|
||
<p class="mt-1">本报告为AI合成数据，投资需谨慎。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</header>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Insight Section -->
|
||
<section id="insight" class="space-y-12">
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-cyan-300">概念核心事件脉络</h2>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-400 mb-6">“科特估半导体”是“科技特色估值体系”在半导体领域的具象化体现，其核心是基于国家战略安全和新质生产力发展的宏大背景，对半导体产业链进行价值重估。该概念的形成与发酵由多重事件催化，呈现出清晰的时间脉络。</p>
|
||
<ul class="timeline timeline-snap-icon max-md:timeline-compact timeline-vertical">
|
||
<li>
|
||
<div class="timeline-middle">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.06 0l4.001-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="timeline-start md:text-end mb-10">
|
||
<time class="font-mono italic">2024年3月-5月</time>
|
||
<div class="text-lg font-black text-purple-300">政策酝酿期</div>
|
||
求是网发布多篇关于新质生产力的文章，政策层面持续强调科技创新的重要性。市场开始将“中特估”的估值重塑逻辑延伸至科技领域，形成“科特估”的初步概念。
|
||
</div>
|
||
<hr/>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li>
|
||
<hr/>
|
||
<div class="timeline-middle">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.06 0l4.001-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="timeline-end mb-10">
|
||
<time class="font-mono italic">2024年5月29日</time>
|
||
<div class="text-lg font-black text-purple-300">关键材料突破</div>
|
||
研报披露，国内特气公司成功进入全国最大的氮化镓（GaN）和碳化硅（SiC）厂供应链，标志着上游关键材料国产替代取得实质性进展。
|
||
</div>
|
||
<hr/>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li>
|
||
<hr/>
|
||
<div class="timeline-middle">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.06 0l4.001-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="timeline-start md:text-end mb-10">
|
||
<time class="font-mono italic">2024年6月</time>
|
||
<div class="text-lg font-black text-purple-300">概念集中爆发期</div>
|
||
多家机构密集召开以“科特估”为主题的策略会，系统性阐述“科特估半导体”投资框架，引爆市场热度。核心观点形成共识：重点聚焦受益于国家大基金三期支持的设备、材料等上游“卡脖子”环节。
|
||
</div>
|
||
<hr/>
|
||
</li>
|
||
<li>
|
||
<hr/>
|
||
<div class="timeline-middle">
|
||
<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" class="h-5 w-5"><path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M10 18a8 8 0 100-16 8 8 0 000 16zm3.857-9.809a.75.75 0 00-1.214-.882l-3.483 4.79-1.88-1.88a.75.75 0 10-1.06 1.061l2.5 2.5a.75.75 0 001.06 0l4.001-5.5z" clip-rule="evenodd" /></svg>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="timeline-end">
|
||
<time class="font-mono italic">2024年10月-至今</time>
|
||
<div class="text-lg font-black text-purple-300">基本面验证与事件驱动</div>
|
||
行业景气度回暖，晶圆厂稼动率提升至满载；国家大基金三期成立；罗博特科、英诺赛科等公司动态不断为概念注入新动能。概念从主题炒作过渡到价值发现阶段。
|
||
</div>
|
||
</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Core Logic -->
|
||
<div class="bento-grid">
|
||
<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12 md:col-span-7">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-cyan-300">核心逻辑：三重驱动力共振</h2>
|
||
<div class="space-y-4 text-gray-300">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-purple-300">1. 安全驱动 (自主可控的确定性)</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">美国持续升级的出口管制，客观上为国产芯片企业<span class="highlight-text font-bold">锁定了国内市场份额</span>，赋予其未来现金流的“确定性溢价”。国家大基金三期提供关键“耐心资本”，尤其针对设备、材料等“卡脖子”环节，形成“以制裁换市场，以投入换时间”的战略逻辑。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-purple-300">2. 成长驱动 (AI赋能与周期复苏的弹性)</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">AI是本轮半导体行情最大的增量，AI服务器与智能终端将显著拉动<span class="highlight-text font-bold">先进制程</span>和<span class="highlight-text font-bold">先进封装</span>需求。同时，行业正走出下行周期（WSTS预测24年增速16%），基本面复苏为估值修复提供业绩支撑。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-purple-300">3. 估值驱动 (价值重估的必要性)</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">传统估值模型难以完全反映半导体企业的战略价值。核心资产如中芯国际PB约<span class="highlight-text font-bold">1.9倍</span>，处于历史低位。考虑到高成长性与国产替代的特殊地位，板块具备显著的估值修复空间。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12 md:col-span-5 flex flex-col">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-cyan-300">市场预期差分析</h2>
|
||
<div class="space-y-3 text-gray-300 flex-grow">
|
||
<div class="p-3 border border-dashed border-gray-600 rounded-xl bg-black bg-opacity-20">
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold accent-text">速度与质量</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-xs">市场普遍预期国产替代加速，但可能低估其艰巨性。先进制程国产化率<span class="highlight-text font-bold">不足10%</span>，市场短期亢奋与产业长期规律存在错配风险。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="p-3 border border-dashed border-gray-600 rounded-xl bg-black bg-opacity-20">
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold accent-text">投向与效率</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-xs">市场对大基金三期寄予厚望，但资金实际落地进度、投资效率及能否撬动社会资本仍是未知数，是核心风险点。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="p-3 border border-dashed border-gray-600 rounded-xl bg-black bg-opacity-20">
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold accent-text">真伪与落地</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-xs">AI对半导体需求的拉动是真实的，但AI PC/手机换机潮的<span class="highlight-text font-bold">规模和节奏</span>尚待验证，可能不及市场最乐观预期。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Valuation Chart -->
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-cyan-300">半导体细分行业估值对比 (PE TTM)</h2>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-400 mb-4 text-sm">数据显示，国内半导体行业估值水平虽仍低于美国，但差距正在逐渐缩小，且在部分细分领域已体现出高成长预期。来源：研报 2025-02-18</p>
|
||
<div id="valuationChart" class="w-full h-96"></div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Catalysts & Future Path -->
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-cyan-300">关键催化剂 (未来3-6个月)</h2>
|
||
<ul class="space-y-3 list-disc list-inside text-gray-300">
|
||
<li><span class="font-semibold accent-text">大基金三期首批投资项目公布：</span>明确政策风向标，直接利好相关设备、材料公司。</li>
|
||
<li><span class="font-semibold accent-text">AI新机市场表现：</span>Apple Intelligence与iPhone16等销量将直接验证AI终端换机逻辑。</li>
|
||
<li><span class="font-semibold accent-text">关键国产设备/材料验证突破：</span>任何关于光刻机、先进EDA、特气等验证通过的消息都将是强力催化剂。</li>
|
||
<li><span class="font-semibold accent-text">地缘政治事件升级：</span>任何新的制裁或关税政策都将进一步强化国产替代的紧迫性。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-cyan-300">长期发展路径预测</h2>
|
||
<ul class="space-y-3 list-disc list-inside text-gray-300">
|
||
<li><span class="font-semibold accent-text">阶段一 (当前-2026)：</span>成熟制程生态完善，关键环节突破。国产设备份额超50%。</li>
|
||
<li><span class="font-semibold accent-text">阶段二 (2026-2028)：</span>先进制程初步攻坚 (14nm及以下)，国产AI芯片占据主导。</li>
|
||
<li><span class="font-semibold accent-text">阶段三 (2028+)：</span>构建全产业链自主可控体系，在核心瓶颈领域取得根本性突破。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Industry Chain Analysis -->
|
||
<div class="bento-grid">
|
||
<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-cyan-300">产业链与核心公司深度剖析</h2>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12 md:col-span-4">
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl mb-3 accent-text">上游：核心支撑层</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-4">“科特估”的重中之重，确定性最高，直接受益于全行业资本开支和国产化浪潮。</p>
|
||
<div class="space-y-2 text-sm">
|
||
<p><strong class="highlight-text">材料:</strong> 硅片 (沪硅产业), 光刻胶 (南大光电), 电子特气 (华特气体), 抛光材料 (鼎龙股份)</p>
|
||
<p><strong class="highlight-text">设备:</strong> 刻蚀 (中微公司), 沉积 (北方华创), 清洗 (盛美上海), 检测 (中科飞测)</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12 md:col-span-4">
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl mb-3 accent-text">中游：制造与设计</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-4">产业链的核心环节，技术壁垒高，是实现自主可控的关键。</p>
|
||
<div class="space-y-2 text-sm">
|
||
<p><strong class="highlight-text">芯片设计:</strong> EDA (华大九天), AI芯片 (寒武纪), 存储 (兆易创新)</p>
|
||
<p><strong class="highlight-text">晶圆制造:</strong> 中芯国际, 华虹半导体</p>
|
||
<p><strong class="highlight-text">先进封装:</strong> 长电科技, 通富微电</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12 md:col-span-4">
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl mb-3 accent-text">前沿探索者</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-4">逻辑独特且极具前瞻性，代表了掌握全球核心技术、服务前沿需求的路径。</p>
|
||
<div class="space-y-2 text-sm">
|
||
<p><strong class="highlight-text">罗博特科:</strong> 全球硅光/CPO封装设备龙头，客户包括<span class="font-mono font-bold">英伟达、台积电</span>。通过并购掌握全球核心技术。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12 md:col-span-6">
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl mb-3 accent-text">核心玩家对比: 设备双雄</h3>
|
||
<p><strong class="highlight-text">北方华创:</strong> 平台型巨头，产品线最全，扩产最直接受益者。PE约30倍，性价比凸显。</p>
|
||
<p><strong class="highlight-text">中微公司:</strong> 细分王者，刻蚀设备技术领先，聚焦技术突破和先进制程单点攻坚。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bento-item glass-card col-span-12 md:col-span-6">
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl mb-3 accent-text">核心玩家对比: 代工双雄</h3>
|
||
<p><strong class="highlight-text">中芯国际:</strong> 先进制程旗手，行业风向标。PB处历史低位，但受地缘政治影响最直接。</p>
|
||
<p><strong class="highlight-text">华虹半导体:</strong> 专注特色工艺，PB约0.8倍全球最低，安全边际高。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Risks and Conclusion -->
|
||
<div class="glass-card rounded-3xl p-6 md:p-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-cyan-300">潜在风险与综合结论</h2>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg mb-3 text-red-400">潜在风险与挑战</h3>
|
||
<ul class="space-y-2 list-disc list-inside text-gray-300 text-sm">
|
||
<li><strong class="text-red-300">技术风险：</strong>国产化进展不及预期是最大风险，先进制程设备、材料、EDA等领域国产化率极低(<10%)。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-red-300">商业化风险：</strong>高昂研发投入侵蚀利润，国产产品在性能、良率、成本上与国际巨头仍有差距。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-red-300">政策与竞争风险：</strong>若中美关系缓和，制裁放松，国产替代紧迫性将下降；国内可能出现同质化投资和恶性竞争。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="text-red-300">信息交叉验证风险：</strong>宏观叙事无法完全对冲市场短期流动性、风险偏好变化带来的波动，需警惕“叫好不叫座”的阶段性风险。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg mb-3 text-green-300">综合结论与投资启示</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300 mb-4">“科特估半导体”是未来数年中国资本市场最重要的投资主线之一，已从概念导入期进入逻辑验证与基本面驱动的早期阶段。其发展将伴随剧烈的技术攻坚阵痛和市场情绪波动。</p>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-md mb-2 text-green-200">最具投资价值环节：</h4>
|
||
<ol class="space-y-1 list-decimal list-inside text-gray-300 text-sm">
|
||
<li><strong class="accent-text">半导体设备与材料：</strong>确定性最高、受益最纯粹的“卖铲人”环节。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="accent-text">先进封装：</strong>享受AI时代技术变革带来的结构性红利。</li>
|
||
<li><strong class="accent-text">国产AI算力芯片：</strong>风险最高，但潜在回报也最大。</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Supporting Data -->
|
||
<section id="supporting-data" class="mt-12" x-data="{ openTab: 'roadshow' }">
|
||
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-center mb-8 fui-header">研报及路演数据支撑</h2>
|
||
<div class="tabs tabs-boxed justify-center bg-black bg-opacity-20 mb-6">
|
||
<a class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': openTab === 'roadshow' }" @click.prevent="openTab = 'roadshow'">路演纪要</a>
|
||
<a class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': openTab === 'report' }" @click.prevent="openTab = 'report'">核心研报</a>
|
||
<a class="tab" :class="{ 'tab-active': openTab === 'news' }" @click.prevent="openTab = 'news'">相关新闻</a>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div x-show="openTab === 'roadshow'" class="space-y-2">
|
||
<div class="daisy-collapse daisy-collapse-arrow glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||
<input type="checkbox" />
|
||
<div class="daisy-collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-purple-300">德邦电子电话会议 (2024-06-11): "不止科特估，半导体成长+复苏行情有望开启"</div>
|
||
<div class="daisy-collapse-content text-gray-400 text-sm space-y-2">
|
||
<p><strong>核心驱动:</strong> 行情核心驱动是“科特估”（科技估值重构）与政策/资金催化。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>大基金三期:</strong> 重点投向国产化率低、需重资产投入的领域，如半导体设备、材料。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>估值修复逻辑:</strong> 当前估值处于历史低位，叠加基本面筑底回升，资金开始聚焦国产替代。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>设备板块分析:</strong> 2024-2025年业绩增速预计达30%以上，当前估值（PE 25-30倍）低于增速（PEG<1），具备性价比。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>晶圆厂分析:</strong> 中芯国际Q1稼动率环比提升4%，PB处于历史低位（约1.9倍），受益于国产化与AI需求。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="daisy-collapse daisy-collapse-arrow glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||
<input type="checkbox" />
|
||
<div class="daisy-collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-purple-300">西部策略 (2025-02-04): "算力平权化，重启‘科特估’！"</div>
|
||
<div class="daisy-collapse-content text-gray-400 text-sm space-y-2">
|
||
<p><strong>“科特估”定义:</strong> 逆全球化时代，国产芯片企业因受美国出口管制，被迫锁定国内市场份额，从而获得未来现金流的确定性溢价，形成“科特估”。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>核心逻辑:</strong> 前提条件是美国对华芯片出口管制持续升级。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>投资策略:</strong> 聚焦华为昇腾链、AI硬件终端、国产显卡替代等高弹性标的。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="daisy-collapse daisy-collapse-arrow glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||
<input type="checkbox" />
|
||
<div class="daisy-collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-purple-300">浙商科技+策略 (2024-06-10): "科特估：科创芯片如何布局？"</div>
|
||
<div class="daisy-collapse-content text-gray-400 text-sm space-y-2">
|
||
<p><strong>硬科技扩散主行情:</strong> 核心方向包括算力链（国产算力设备、光芯片）和AI终端（电子产业链）。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>晶圆厂龙头:</strong> 中芯国际与华虹半导体。下半年代工价格或小幅上调；国内AI芯片唯一代工方。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>设备与材料投资机会:</strong> 大基金三期落地催化，多设备公司调入核心指数。估值低位，北方华创2024年PE仅20-30倍。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div x-show="openTab === 'report'" class="space-y-2">
|
||
<div class="daisy-collapse daisy-collapse-arrow glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||
<input type="checkbox" />
|
||
<div class="daisy-collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-purple-300">研报 (2024-06-18/19): 科特估带动关注度提升</div>
|
||
<div class="daisy-collapse-content text-gray-400 text-sm space-y-2">
|
||
<p><strong>核心观点:</strong> “科特估”市场讨论度较高，半导体作为前沿科技的重要方向，叠加产业周期处于相对底部，板块投资关注度有所提升。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>核心逻辑:</strong> 需求端AI赋能让先进制程需求增长明显；供给侧以中芯国际为首的产业链扩产受限，国产替代需求迫切。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>行业周期:</strong> WSTS上调全球半导体2024年增速至16%，行业边际持续好转，预计下半年好于上半年。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="daisy-collapse daisy-collapse-arrow glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||
<input type="checkbox" />
|
||
<div class="daisy-collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-purple-300">研报 (2025-02-18): 半导体在“科特估”体系中的定位</div>
|
||
<div class="daisy-collapse-content text-gray-400 text-sm space-y-2">
|
||
<p><strong>定位:</strong> 半导体行业作为国家重点发展的"硬科技"领域，是"科特估"战略布局的核心组成部分。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>估值趋势:</strong> 国内ROE增速靠前的半导体设备、半导体产品PB已经快速提升，与美国估值差距正在逐渐缩小。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>特殊地位:</strong> 作为国家产业链安全的关键环节，半导体企业有望获得更多估值溢价。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div x-show="openTab === 'news'" class="space-y-2">
|
||
<div class="daisy-collapse daisy-collapse-arrow glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||
<input type="checkbox" />
|
||
<div class="daisy-collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-purple-300">直接相关信息：估值修复与政策导向</div>
|
||
<div class="daisy-collapse-content text-gray-400 text-sm space-y-2">
|
||
<p><strong>国金证券：</strong>看好半导体行业复苏及估值修复。看好低估值优势龙头公司，有望迎来周期复苏、业绩提振及估值修复的多重驱动。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>国君电子：</strong>半导体自主可控只会不断加强...中国半导体迎来估值重塑。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>晶科科技：</strong>董事会会议通过估值提升计划，采取股份回购、加大分红、强化投资者关系管理等举措提升公司投资价值。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="daisy-collapse daisy-collapse-arrow glass-card rounded-2xl">
|
||
<input type="checkbox" />
|
||
<div class="daisy-collapse-title text-xl font-medium text-purple-300">重点公司动态：罗博特科</div>
|
||
<div class="daisy-collapse-content text-gray-400 text-sm space-y-2">
|
||
<p><strong>战略定位:</strong> 子公司ficontec是硅光和量子科技的核心设备提供商，台湾全球硅光联盟唯一大陆会员。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>核心技术:</strong> 覆盖CPO/OCS交换机、1.6T及以上光模块。ficonTEC为硅光模块设备龙头。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>全球客户:</strong> 英伟达、台积电、博通、英特尔、思科、SpaceX、华为、中际旭创等。</p>
|
||
<p><strong>订单合同:</strong> 在手订单超5亿。与美国某头部公司签订超1亿元光电子封测设备合同。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock List -->
|
||
<section id="stock-list" class="mt-12">
|
||
<h2 class="text-3xl font-bold text-center mb-8 fui-header">“科特估半导体”概念相关标的</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto glass-card rounded-3xl p-4">
|
||
<table class="table table-sm">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr class="text-gray-300">
|
||
<th class="w-1/4">公司名称</th>
|
||
<th class="w-1/4">核心逻辑</th>
|
||
<th class="w-1/4">细分领域</th>
|
||
<th class="w-1/4">股票代码</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr class="text-white text-lg"><th colspan="4" class="text-center font-bold tracking-widest bg-opacity-20 bg-purple-500 py-3">上游 · 半导体材料</th></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>彤程新材</td><td>光刻胶</td><td>半导体材料</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603650" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">603650</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>南大光电</td><td>光刻胶/电子气体</td><td>半导体材料</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300346" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">300346</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>华特气体</td><td>电子气体</td><td>半导体材料</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688268" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">688268</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>雅克科技</td><td>电子气体/前驱体</td><td>半导体材料</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002409" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">002409</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>鼎龙股份</td><td>抛光材料(CMP)</td><td>半导体材料</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300054" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">300054</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>安集科技</td><td>抛光材料(CMP)</td><td>半导体材料</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688019" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">688019</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>沪硅产业</td><td>硅片</td><td>半导体材料</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688126" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">688126</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>立昂微</td><td>硅片</td><td>半导体材料</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=605358" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">605358</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>江丰电子</td><td>溅射靶材</td><td>半导体材料</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300666" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">300666</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="text-white text-lg"><th colspan="4" class="text-center font-bold tracking-widest bg-opacity-20 bg-purple-500 py-3">上游 · 半导体设备</th></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>北方华创</td><td>沉积/刻蚀/清洗设备</td><td>半导体设备</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002371" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">002371</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>中微公司</td><td>刻蚀/沉积设备</td><td>半导体设备</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688012" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">688012</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>拓荆科技</td><td>沉积设备(PECVD)</td><td>半导体设备</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688072" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">688072</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>盛美上海</td><td>清洗/抛光设备</td><td>半导体设备</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688082" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">688082</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>芯源微</td><td>涂胶显影/清洗设备</td><td>半导体设备</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688037" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">688037</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>华海清科</td><td>抛光设备(CMP)</td><td>半导体设备</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688120" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">688120</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>中科飞测</td><td>前道检测设备</td><td>半导体设备</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688361" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">688361</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>精测电子</td><td>前道检测设备</td><td>半导体设备</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300567" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">300567</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="text-white text-lg"><th colspan="4" class="text-center font-bold tracking-widest bg-opacity-20 bg-cyan-500 py-3">中游 · 芯片设计</th></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>华大九天</td><td>EDA</td><td>芯片设计</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=301269" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">301269</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>寒武纪</td><td>AI芯片(CPU/GPU)</td><td>芯片设计</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688256" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">688256</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>海光信息</td><td>CPU/GPU</td><td>芯片设计</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688041" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">688041</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>龙芯中科</td><td>CPU</td><td>芯片设计</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688047" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">688047</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>兆易创新</td><td>存储芯片(NOR/NAND)/MCU</td><td>芯片设计</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=603986" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">603986</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>澜起科技</td><td>内存接口芯片</td><td>芯片设计</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688008" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">688008</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>圣邦股份</td><td>模拟芯片</td><td>芯片设计</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300661" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">300661</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>卓胜微</td><td>射频前端芯片</td><td>芯片设计</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=300782" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">300782</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr class="text-white text-lg"><th colspan="4" class="text-center font-bold tracking-widest bg-opacity-20 bg-cyan-500 py-3">中游 · 芯片制造 & 封测</th></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>中芯国际</td><td>晶圆制造</td><td>芯片制造</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=688981" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">688981</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>华虹半导体</td><td>晶圆制造</td><td>芯片制造</td><td><span>-</span></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>士兰微</td><td>晶圆制造(IDM)</td><td>芯片制造</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600460" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">600460</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>长电科技</td><td>封装测试(先进封装)</td><td>芯片制造</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=600584" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">600584</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>通富微电</td><td>封装测试(先进封装)</td><td>芯片制造</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002156" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">002156</a></td></tr>
|
||
<tr><td>华天科技</td><td>封装测试</td><td>芯片制造</td><td><a href="https://valuefrontier.cn/company?scode=002185" target="_blank" class="hover:text-cyan-300">002185</a></td></tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function () {
|
||
var valuationChart = echarts.init(document.getElementById('valuationChart'));
|
||
var option = {
|
||
backgroundColor: 'transparent',
|
||
tooltip: {
|
||
trigger: 'axis',
|
||
axisPointer: {
|
||
type: 'shadow'
|
||
},
|
||
backgroundColor: 'rgba(20, 20, 40, 0.8)',
|
||
borderColor: '#555',
|
||
textStyle: { color: '#eee' }
|
||
},
|
||
legend: {
|
||
data: ['中国PE', '美国PE'],
|
||
textStyle: { color: '#ccc' },
|
||
right: 10,
|
||
},
|
||
grid: {
|
||
left: '3%',
|
||
right: '4%',
|
||
bottom: '3%',
|
||
containLabel: true
|
||
},
|
||
xAxis: {
|
||
type: 'value',
|
||
boundaryGap: [0, 0.01],
|
||
axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#888' } },
|
||
splitLine: { lineStyle: { color: 'rgba(136, 136, 136, 0.2)' } }
|
||
},
|
||
yAxis: {
|
||
type: 'category',
|
||
data: ['半导体产品', '半导体材料与设备'],
|
||
axisLine: { lineStyle: { color: '#888' } }
|
||
},
|
||
series: [
|
||
{
|
||
name: '中国PE',
|
||
type: 'bar',
|
||
data: [94.84, 55.29],
|
||
itemStyle: {
|
||
color: new echarts.graphic.LinearGradient(0, 0, 1, 0, [
|
||
{ offset: 0, color: '#83bff6' },
|
||
{ offset: 0.5, color: '#188df0' },
|
||
{ offset: 1, color: '#188df0' }
|
||
])
|
||
},
|
||
label: {
|
||
show: true,
|
||
position: 'right',
|
||
color: '#e0e0e0',
|
||
formatter: '{c}'
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
name: '美国PE',
|
||
type: 'bar',
|
||
data: [1.00, 48.04], // Note: The report shows 1.00 for US semi products, which seems low, but I will use the data provided.
|
||
itemStyle: {
|
||
color: new echarts.graphic.LinearGradient(0, 0, 1, 0, [
|
||
{ offset: 0, color: '#c792ea' },
|
||
{ offset: 0.7, color: '#9d65c9' },
|
||
{ offset: 1, color: '#7e48a3' }
|
||
])
|
||
},
|
||
label: {
|
||
show: true,
|
||
position: 'right',
|
||
color: '#e0e0e0',
|
||
formatter: '{c}'
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
]
|
||
};
|
||
valuationChart.setOption(option);
|
||
window.addEventListener('resize', () => {
|
||
valuationChart.resize();
|
||
});
|
||
});
|
||
</script>
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html> |