730 lines
38 KiB
HTML
730 lines
38 KiB
HTML
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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN">
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<head>
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<meta charset="utf-8" />
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1, shrink-to-fit=no">
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<title>泰乐菌素原料药行业洞察报告</title>
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<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css?family=Inter:300,400,500,600,700,800" rel="stylesheet" />
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<!-- Nucleo Icons -->
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<link href="https://demos.creative-tim.com/soft-ui-design-system-pro/assets/css/nucleo-icons.css" rel="stylesheet" />
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<link href="https://demos.creative-tim.com/soft-ui-design-system-pro/assets/css/nucleo-svg.css" rel="stylesheet" />
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<!-- Font Awesome Icons -->
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<script src="https://kit.fontawesome.com/1d2b6c4f81.js" crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
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<!-- Tailwind CSS -->
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/tailwindcss@2.2.19/dist/tailwind.min.css" rel="stylesheet">
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<!-- DaisyUI -->
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@5" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@5/themes.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<style>
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body {
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font-family: 'Inter', sans-serif;
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, #f5f7fa 0%, #e4e8f0 100%);
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}
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.timeline-dot {
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width: 16px;
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height: 16px;
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border-radius: 50%;
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background-color: #3b82f6;
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position: absolute;
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left: -8px;
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top: 8px;
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}
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.timeline-line {
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position: absolute;
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left: 0;
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top: 24px;
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bottom: 0;
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width: 2px;
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background-color: #e5e7eb;
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}
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.card-hover {
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transition: all 0.3s ease;
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}
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.card-hover:hover {
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transform: translateY(-5px);
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box-shadow: 0 10px 25px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);
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}
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.gradient-text {
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background: linear-gradient(90deg, #3b82f6, #8b5cf6);
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-webkit-background-clip: text;
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-webkit-text-fill-color: transparent;
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}
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.table-container {
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overflow-x: auto;
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}
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@media (max-width: 768px) {
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.table-container {
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overflow-x: scroll;
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}
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="bg-gray-50">
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<div class="container mx-auto px-4 py-8 max-w-7xl">
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<!-- 标题部分 -->
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<div class="text-center mb-10">
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<h1 class="text-4xl font-bold gradient-text mb-4">泰乐菌素原料药行业洞察报告</h1>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-lg">供给收缩+需求爆发的超级周期起点</p>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心观点摘要 -->
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<div class="card bg-white rounded-xl shadow-lg p-6 mb-8 card-hover">
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<div class="flex items-center mb-4">
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<div class="bg-blue-100 p-3 rounded-lg mr-4">
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<i class="fas fa-lightbulb text-blue-600 text-xl"></i>
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</div>
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800">核心观点摘要</h2>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-blue-50 border-l-4 border-blue-500 p-4 rounded-r-lg">
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<p class="text-gray-700">
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<span class="font-semibold text-blue-700">泰乐菌素原料药正处于"供给收缩+需求爆发"驱动的超级周期起点</span>，价格已从底部反弹<span class="font-bold text-red-500">32%</span>，未来三年中枢或达<span class="font-bold text-green-600">500元/kg</span>（年化涨幅<span class="font-bold text-green-600">15-20%</span>）。
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</p>
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<p class="text-gray-700 mt-2">
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<span class="font-semibold text-blue-700">核心矛盾</span>：TOP5企业掌控<span class="font-bold">80% GMP产能</span>却主动减产转产，导致<span class="font-bold">16,000吨全球需求</span>面对仅<span class="font-bold">10,000吨有效供给</span>的硬缺口。
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</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 概念事件（时间轴） -->
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<div class="card bg-white rounded-xl shadow-lg p-6 mb-8 card-hover">
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<div class="flex items-center mb-6">
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<div class="bg-purple-100 p-3 rounded-lg mr-4">
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<i class="fas fa-history text-purple-600 text-xl"></i>
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</div>
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800">概念事件（时间轴）</h2>
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</div>
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<div class="relative pl-8">
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<div class="timeline-line"></div>
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<div class="relative mb-8">
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<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
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<div class="bg-white border border-gray-200 rounded-lg p-4 shadow-sm">
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<div class="flex justify-between items-center mb-2">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-gray-800">2024Q3</h3>
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<span class="bg-red-100 text-red-800 text-xs font-semibold px-2.5 py-0.5 rounded">历史低位</span>
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</div>
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<p class="text-gray-700">行业价格战触底，泰乐菌素跌至<span class="font-bold text-red-500">220元/kg</span></p>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm mt-1">行业亏损面>60%，TOP5企业开始减产/转产</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="relative mb-8">
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<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
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<div class="bg-white border border-gray-200 rounded-lg p-4 shadow-sm">
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<div class="flex justify-between items-center mb-2">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-gray-800">2024Q4</h3>
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<span class="bg-blue-100 text-blue-800 text-xs font-semibold px-2.5 py-0.5 rounded">政策驱动</span>
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</div>
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<p class="text-gray-700">欧盟新规生效，强制要求出口养殖场使用第三代大环内酯类药物</p>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm mt-1">泰乐菌素作为替米考星/泰万菌素关键中间体，需求结构性激增</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="relative mb-8">
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<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
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<div class="bg-white border border-gray-200 rounded-lg p-4 shadow-sm">
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<div class="flex justify-between items-center mb-2">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-gray-800">2025-01</h3>
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<span class="bg-yellow-100 text-yellow-800 text-xs font-semibold px-2.5 py-0.5 rounded">产能调整</span>
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</div>
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<p class="text-gray-700">头部企业（泰益欣、鲁抗、回盛）集体转产高附加值产品</p>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm mt-1"><span class="font-bold">约7000吨产能</span>（占总量35%）切换至泰万菌素</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="relative mb-8">
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<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
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<div class="bg-white border border-gray-200 rounded-lg p-4 shadow-sm">
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<div class="flex justify-between items-center mb-2">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-gray-800">2025-03-21</h3>
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<span class="bg-green-100 text-green-800 text-xs font-semibold px-2.5 py-0.5 rounded">价格反弹</span>
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</div>
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<p class="text-gray-700">报价突破<span class="font-bold text-green-600">290元/kg</span>（年内涨幅<span class="font-bold text-green-600">32%</span>）</p>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm mt-1">库存周转天数从45天骤降至<span class="font-bold">5天</span></p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="relative">
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<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
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<div class="bg-white border border-gray-200 rounded-lg p-4 shadow-sm">
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<div class="flex justify-between items-center mb-2">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-gray-800">2025-04-15</h3>
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<span class="bg-purple-100 text-purple-800 text-xs font-semibold px-2.5 py-0.5 rounded">行业共识</span>
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</div>
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<p class="text-gray-700">行业共识价将冲<span class="font-bold text-purple-600">350元/kg</span></p>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm mt-1">周度议价机制确立，下游被迫接受</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心驱动力（三重共振） -->
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<div class="card bg-white rounded-xl shadow-lg p-6 mb-8 card-hover">
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<div class="flex items-center mb-6">
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<div class="bg-green-100 p-3 rounded-lg mr-4">
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<i class="fas fa-rocket text-green-600 text-xl"></i>
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</div>
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800">核心驱动力（三重共振）</h2>
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</div>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="min-w-full divide-y divide-gray-200">
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<thead class="bg-gray-50">
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<tr>
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<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">维度</th>
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<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">数据验证</th>
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<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">逻辑推导</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody class="bg-white divide-y divide-gray-200">
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<tr>
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<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap">
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<div class="flex items-center">
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<div class="bg-blue-100 p-2 rounded-lg mr-3">
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<i class="fas fa-file-contract text-blue-600"></i>
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</div>
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<span class="font-medium text-gray-900">政策驱动</span>
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</div>
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</td>
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<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">欧盟2024新规强制使用第三代大环内酯类</td>
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<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">泰乐菌素→替米考星/泰万菌素产业链需求<span class="font-bold text-green-600">翻倍</span></td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap">
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<div class="flex items-center">
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<div class="bg-red-100 p-2 rounded-lg mr-3">
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<i class="fas fa-industry text-red-600"></i>
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</div>
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<span class="font-medium text-gray-900">供给收缩</span>
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</div>
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</td>
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<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">TOP5企业转产导致<span class="font-bold">7000吨产能退出</span></td>
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<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">有效供给从<span class="font-bold">21,700吨→16,000吨</span>（缺口<span class="font-bold text-red-500">23%</span>）</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap">
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<div class="flex items-center">
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<div class="bg-yellow-100 p-2 rounded-lg mr-3">
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<i class="fas fa-warehouse text-yellow-600"></i>
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</div>
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<span class="font-medium text-gray-900">库存清零</span>
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</div>
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</td>
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<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">下游库存从45天→5天</td>
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<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">价格弹性被放大至<span class="font-bold">周度调价</span>模式</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 市场热度与情绪 -->
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6 mb-8">
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<div class="card bg-white rounded-xl shadow-lg p-6 card-hover">
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<div class="flex items-center mb-4">
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<div class="bg-blue-100 p-3 rounded-lg mr-4">
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<i class="fas fa-newspaper text-blue-600 text-xl"></i>
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</div>
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<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-gray-800">新闻热度</h3>
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</div>
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<div class="text-center py-4">
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<div class="text-4xl font-bold text-blue-600 mb-2">5篇/天</div>
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<p class="text-gray-600">3月26-31日密集报道</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-500 mt-2">关键词"暴涨""周度议价"刷屏</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="card bg-white rounded-xl shadow-lg p-6 card-hover">
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<div class="flex items-center mb-4">
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<div class="bg-green-100 p-3 rounded-lg mr-4">
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<i class="fas fa-chart-line text-green-600 text-xl"></i>
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</div>
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<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-gray-800">研报密度</h3>
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</div>
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<div class="text-center py-4">
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<div class="text-4xl font-bold text-green-600 mb-2">4家</div>
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<p class="text-gray-600">3月最后一周券商集中覆盖</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-500 mt-2">天风、申万、华福、国海</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="card bg-white rounded-xl shadow-lg p-6 card-hover">
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<div class="flex items-center mb-4">
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<div class="bg-purple-100 p-3 rounded-lg mr-4">
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<i class="fas fa-balance-scale text-purple-600 text-xl"></i>
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</div>
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<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-gray-800">分歧点</h3>
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</div>
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<div class="text-center py-4">
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<div class="text-lg font-bold text-purple-600 mb-2">回盛生物</div>
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<p class="text-gray-600">公告提示"价格波动可持续性不确定"</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-500 mt-2">路演明确"4月350元/kg已成共识"</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 预期差分析 -->
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<div class="card bg-white rounded-xl shadow-lg p-6 mb-8 card-hover">
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<div class="flex items-center mb-6">
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<div class="bg-yellow-100 p-3 rounded-lg mr-4">
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<i class="fas fa-exclamation-triangle text-yellow-600 text-xl"></i>
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</div>
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800">预期差分析</h2>
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</div>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div class="bg-red-50 border-l-4 border-red-500 p-4 rounded-r-lg">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-red-700 mb-3">市场共识</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-2">
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-times-circle text-red-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
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<span class="text-gray-700">"涨价因短期缺货"</span>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-times-circle text-red-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
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<span class="text-gray-700">"中小厂商会填补缺口"</span>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-green-50 border-l-4 border-green-500 p-4 rounded-r-lg">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg text-green-700 mb-3">被忽略的关键点</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-2">
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-check-circle text-green-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
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<span class="text-gray-700"><span class="font-semibold">转产不可逆</span>：泰万菌素毛利率<span class="font-bold text-green-600">60%</span> vs 泰乐菌素<span class="font-bold">30%</span>，企业无动力复产</span>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-check-circle text-green-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
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<span class="text-gray-700"><span class="font-semibold">技术壁垒</span>：TOP5企业发酵收率<span class="font-bold text-green-600">90%+</span>，中小企业仅<span class="font-bold">70%</span>，成本差<span class="font-bold">50元/kg</span></span>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 关键催化剂与未来发展路径 -->
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 mb-8">
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<div class="card bg-white rounded-xl shadow-lg p-6 card-hover">
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<div class="flex items-center mb-6">
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<div class="bg-indigo-100 p-3 rounded-lg mr-4">
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<i class="fas fa-fire text-indigo-600 text-xl"></i>
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</div>
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<h2 class="text-xl font-bold text-gray-800">近期催化剂（3-6个月）</h2>
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</div>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="bg-indigo-100 text-indigo-800 rounded-full w-8 h-8 flex items-center justify-center flex-shrink-0 mr-3">1</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-medium text-gray-900">4月中旬报价突破350元/kg</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">行业会议已吹风</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="bg-indigo-100 text-indigo-800 rounded-full w-8 h-8 flex items-center justify-center flex-shrink-0 mr-3">2</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-medium text-gray-900">Q2养殖旺季补库</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">生猪存栏量<span class="font-bold">4.5亿头</span>（同比+8%），需求端二次冲击</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="bg-indigo-100 text-indigo-800 rounded-full w-8 h-8 flex items-center justify-center flex-shrink-0 mr-3">3</div>
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||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="font-medium text-gray-900">出口订单爆发</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">欧盟客户被迫接受高价（中国占全球<span class="font-bold">70%</span>出口份额）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="card bg-white rounded-xl shadow-lg p-6 card-hover">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center mb-6">
|
||
<div class="bg-teal-100 p-3 rounded-lg mr-4">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-route text-teal-600 text-xl"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<h2 class="text-xl font-bold text-gray-800">长期路径（2025-2027）</h2>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="flex items-center justify-center">
|
||
<div class="relative">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="bg-teal-100 rounded-lg p-4 text-center">
|
||
<div class="font-bold text-teal-800">2025Q2</div>
|
||
<div class="text-lg font-bold">350元/kg</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="mx-2 text-teal-500">→</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-teal-200 rounded-lg p-4 text-center">
|
||
<div class="font-bold text-teal-800">2025Q4</div>
|
||
<div class="text-lg font-bold">400元/kg</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="mx-2 text-teal-500">→</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-teal-300 rounded-lg p-4 text-center">
|
||
<div class="font-bold text-teal-800">2026年</div>
|
||
<div class="text-lg font-bold">500元/kg中枢</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="mx-2 text-teal-500">→</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-teal-400 rounded-lg p-4 text-center">
|
||
<div class="font-bold text-white">2027年</div>
|
||
<div class="text-lg font-bold text-white">份额25%→替米考星/泰万菌素放量</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 产业链与核心公司深度剖析 -->
|
||
<div class="card bg-white rounded-xl shadow-lg p-6 mb-8 card-hover">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center mb-6">
|
||
<div class="bg-pink-100 p-3 rounded-lg mr-4">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-sitemap text-pink-600 text-xl"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800">产业链与核心公司深度剖析</h2>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 产业链图谱 -->
|
||
<div class="mb-8">
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-gray-800 mb-4">产业链图谱</h3>
|
||
<div class="flex flex-wrap items-center justify-center gap-4 p-4 bg-gray-50 rounded-lg">
|
||
<div class="bg-green-100 text-green-800 px-4 py-2 rounded-lg font-medium">玉米/淀粉</div>
|
||
<div class="text-gray-500">→</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-blue-100 text-blue-800 px-4 py-2 rounded-lg font-medium">发酵</div>
|
||
<div class="text-gray-500">→</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-purple-100 text-purple-800 px-4 py-2 rounded-lg font-medium">泰乐菌素原料药</div>
|
||
<div class="text-gray-500">→</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-yellow-100 text-yellow-800 px-4 py-2 rounded-lg font-medium">替米考星/泰万菌素</div>
|
||
<div class="text-gray-500">→</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-red-100 text-red-800 px-4 py-2 rounded-lg font-medium">兽药制剂</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-4 mt-4">
|
||
<div class="bg-green-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-green-700 mb-2">上游</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">玉米价格<span class="font-bold">2400元/吨</span>（成本占比<span class="font-bold">40%</span>）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-purple-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-purple-700 mb-2">中游</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">TOP5企业（泰益欣、鲁抗、回盛、齐鲁、中牧）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-red-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold text-red-700 mb-2">下游</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">规模化养殖场（牧原、温氏等采购占比<span class="font-bold">60%</span>）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 核心玩家对比 -->
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold text-gray-800 mb-4">核心玩家对比</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="min-w-full divide-y divide-gray-200">
|
||
<thead class="bg-gray-50">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">公司</th>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">产能（吨）</th>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">成本（元/kg）</th>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">弹性测算（涨价100元/kg）</th>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">风险点</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody class="bg-white divide-y divide-gray-200">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap font-medium text-gray-900">鲁抗医药</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-gray-700"><span class="font-bold">3500</span></td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-gray-700">125</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-green-600 font-bold">+3.5亿利润</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">国企决策慢，转产灵活性低</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap font-medium text-gray-900">回盛生物</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-gray-700">3000</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-gray-700">125</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-green-600 font-bold">+3亿利润</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">可转债利息压力（<span class="font-bold">5000万/年</span>）</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap font-medium text-gray-900">泰益欣</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-gray-700">8000→5000（转产）</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-gray-700">120</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-green-600 font-bold">+2.5亿利润</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">宁夏环保限产风险</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap font-medium text-gray-900">齐鲁制药</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-gray-700">2000</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-gray-700">130</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-green-600 font-bold">+2亿利润</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">兽药业务占比低（<span class="font-bold"><10%</span>）</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-blue-50 border-l-4 border-blue-500 p-4 rounded-r-lg mt-4">
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700"><span class="font-semibold text-blue-700">验证点</span>：回盛生物路演显示"<span class="font-bold">Q1原料药毛利率从0%→6%</span>"，印证涨价传导。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 潜在风险与挑战 -->
|
||
<div class="card bg-white rounded-xl shadow-lg p-6 mb-8 card-hover">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center mb-6">
|
||
<div class="bg-red-100 p-3 rounded-lg mr-4">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-shield-alt text-red-600 text-xl"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="min-w-full divide-y divide-gray-200">
|
||
<thead class="bg-gray-50">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">风险类型</th>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">具体表现</th>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">概率</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody class="bg-white divide-y divide-gray-200">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="bg-orange-100 p-2 rounded-lg mr-3">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-industry text-orange-600"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium text-gray-900">复产风险</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">若泰乐菌素>400元/kg，中小企业可能重启<span class="font-bold">2000吨闲置产能</span></td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap">
|
||
<span class="bg-yellow-100 text-yellow-800 text-xs font-semibold px-2.5 py-0.5 rounded">中</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="bg-purple-100 p-2 rounded-lg mr-3">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-flask text-purple-600"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium text-gray-900">替代风险</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">替米考星直接合成技术突破（目前需<span class="font-bold">1.2吨泰乐菌素/吨</span>）</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap">
|
||
<span class="bg-green-100 text-green-800 text-xs font-semibold px-2.5 py-0.5 rounded">低</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="bg-blue-100 p-2 rounded-lg mr-3">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-gavel text-blue-600"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium text-gray-900">政策风险</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">中国加强兽用抗生素监管（已抽检<span class="font-bold">50%不合格率</span>）</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap">
|
||
<span class="bg-yellow-100 text-yellow-800 text-xs font-semibold px-2.5 py-0.5 rounded">中</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="bg-red-100 p-2 rounded-lg mr-3">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-chart-line text-red-600"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium text-gray-900">数据矛盾</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">新闻称"<span class="font-bold">库存5天</span>"，但路演显示"<span class="font-bold">下游仍有10天库存</span>"</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap">
|
||
<span class="bg-gray-100 text-gray-800 text-xs font-semibold px-2.5 py-0.5 rounded">需验证</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 综合结论与投资启示 -->
|
||
<div class="card bg-gradient-to-r from-blue-600 to-purple-600 rounded-xl shadow-lg p-6 mb-8 text-white">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center mb-6">
|
||
<div class="bg-white bg-opacity-20 p-3 rounded-lg mr-4">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-trophy text-white text-xl"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold">综合结论与投资启示</h2>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="space-y-4">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold mb-2">阶段判断</h3>
|
||
<p>已从<span class="font-bold">主题炒作</span>（2024Q4）进入<span class="font-bold">基本面驱动</span>（2025Q1量价齐升）。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold mb-2">最佳方向</h3>
|
||
<ol class="list-decimal pl-5 space-y-2">
|
||
<li><span class="font-bold">原料药龙头</span>：鲁抗医药（产能最大）、回盛生物（弹性最高）。</li>
|
||
<li><span class="font-bold">替代产业链</span>：替米考星制剂企业（如<span class="font-bold">中牧股份</span>）。</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-bold mb-2">跟踪指标</h3>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc pl-5 space-y-2">
|
||
<li><span class="font-bold">周度报价</span>：泰益欣/鲁抗每周报价（当前<span class="font-bold">290→350元/kg</span>）。</li>
|
||
<li><span class="font-bold">库存天数</span>：若回升至<span class="font-bold">15天+</span>，则涨价逻辑弱化。</li>
|
||
<li><span class="font-bold">出口数据</span>：2025年4月海关出口量（欧盟订单是否持续）。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-white bg-opacity-20 p-4 rounded-lg mt-4">
|
||
<p class="font-bold text-lg">一句话总结</p>
|
||
<p>泰乐菌素是<span class="font-bold">供给硬缺口+需求刚性</span>的经典周期品，当前处于<span class="font-bold">主升浪初期</span>，龙头产能释放将直接兑现为利润。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 关联股票数据表格 -->
|
||
<div class="card bg-white rounded-xl shadow-lg p-6 mb-8 card-hover">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center mb-6">
|
||
<div class="bg-green-100 p-3 rounded-lg mr-4">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-chart-bar text-green-600 text-xl"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800">关联股票数据</h2>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="table-container">
|
||
<table class="min-w-full divide-y divide-gray-200">
|
||
<thead class="bg-gray-50">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">公司</th>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">项目</th>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">产能</th>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">增利</th>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">预期增利</th>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">原因</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody class="bg-white divide-y divide-gray-200">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="bg-blue-100 p-2 rounded-lg mr-3">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-building text-blue-600"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium text-gray-900">宁夏泰益欣（宁夏泰瑞制药股份有限公司）</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-gray-700">泰乐菌素原料药</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-gray-700 font-bold">1500吨</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-green-600 font-bold">90,000,000</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-green-600 font-bold">420,000,000</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">因泰乐菌素原料药价格从25年初的220,000元/吨上涨至25.3.26的280,000元/吨，产能释放带动利润增长</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="bg-blue-100 p-2 rounded-lg mr-3">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-building text-blue-600"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium text-gray-900">齐鲁制药</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-gray-700">泰乐菌素原料药</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-gray-700 font-bold">2000吨</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-green-600 font-bold">120,000,000</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-green-600 font-bold">560,000,000</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">受益于泰乐菌素原料药价格上涨及产能规模效应，利润显著提升</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="bg-blue-100 p-2 rounded-lg mr-3">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-building text-blue-600"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium text-gray-900">鲁抗舍里乐药业</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-gray-700">泰乐菌素原料药</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-gray-700 font-bold">3500吨</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-green-600 font-bold">210,000,000</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-green-600 font-bold">980,000,000</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">高产能叠加价格上涨，成为利润增长核心驱动力</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="bg-blue-100 p-2 rounded-lg mr-3">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-building text-blue-600"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium text-gray-900">回盛生物</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-gray-700">泰乐菌素原料药</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-gray-700 font-bold">3000吨</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-green-600 font-bold">180,000,000</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-green-600 font-bold">840,000,000</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">产能规模优势显著，价格上涨直接增厚利润</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="bg-blue-100 p-2 rounded-lg mr-3">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-building text-blue-600"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium text-gray-900">中牧股份</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-gray-700">泰乐菌素原料药</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-gray-700 font-bold">100吨</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-green-600 font-bold">6,000,000</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-green-600 font-bold">28,000,000</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">小规模产能受益于产品涨价，利润弹性较小</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="bg-blue-100 p-2 rounded-lg mr-3">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-building text-blue-600"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium text-gray-900">利民股份</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-gray-700">泰乐菌素原料药</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-gray-700 font-bold">500吨</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-green-600 font-bold">30,000,000</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-green-600 font-bold">140,000,000</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">中等规模产能匹配价格上涨，利润同步增长</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="bg-blue-100 p-2 rounded-lg mr-3">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-building text-blue-600"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium text-gray-900">普洛康裕生物</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-gray-700">泰乐菌素原料药</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-gray-700 font-bold">600吨</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-green-600 font-bold">36,000,000</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-green-600 font-bold">168,000,000</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-gray-700">产能利用率提升叠加涨价效应，利润稳步增加</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
// 添加页面加载动画
|
||
document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function() {
|
||
const cards = document.querySelectorAll('.card-hover');
|
||
cards.forEach((card, index) => {
|
||
setTimeout(() => {
|
||
card.style.opacity = '0';
|
||
card.style.transform = 'translateY(20px)';
|
||
card.style.transition = 'all 0.5s ease';
|
||
|
||
setTimeout(() => {
|
||
card.style.opacity = '1';
|
||
card.style.transform = 'translateY(0)';
|
||
}, 100);
|
||
}, index * 100);
|
||
});
|
||
});
|
||
</script>
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html>
|
||
``` |