686 lines
32 KiB
HTML
686 lines
32 KiB
HTML
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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN">
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<head>
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<meta charset="utf-8" />
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1, shrink-to-fit=no">
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<title>甲苯二异氰酸酯-TDI行业分析报告</title>
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<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css?family=Inter:300,400,500,600,700,800" rel="stylesheet" />
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<!-- Font Awesome Icons -->
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<script src="https://kit.fontawesome.com/1d2b6c4f81.js" crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
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<!-- Tailwind CSS -->
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/tailwindcss@2.2.19/dist/tailwind.min.css" rel="stylesheet">
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<!-- DaisyUI -->
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@5" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@5/themes.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<!-- Custom CSS -->
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<style>
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@import url('https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Noto+Sans+SC:wght@300;400;500;700;900&display=swap');
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body {
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font-family: 'Noto Sans SC', 'Inter', sans-serif;
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, #f5f7fa 0%, #e4e8f0 100%);
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min-height: 100vh;
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}
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.timeline-dot {
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position: relative;
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content: '';
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position: absolute;
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border-radius: 50%;
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background-color: #3b82f6;
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left: -8px;
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z-index: 1;
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}
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.timeline-line {
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position: absolute;
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width: 2px;
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background-color: #d1d5db;
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top: 0;
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bottom: 0;
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left: 0;
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}
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.gradient-text {
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background: linear-gradient(90deg, #3b82f6, #8b5cf6);
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-webkit-background-clip: text;
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-webkit-text-fill-color: transparent;
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}
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.card-hover {
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transition: all 0.3s ease;
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.card-hover:hover {
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transform: translateY(-5px);
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box-shadow: 0 10px 25px -5px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1), 0 10px 10px -5px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.04);
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}
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.table-responsive {
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overflow-x: auto;
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}
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@media (max-width: 768px) {
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.timeline-line {
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left: 15px;
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}
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.timeline-dot::before {
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left: 7px;
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}
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="bg-gray-50">
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<div class="container mx-auto px-4 py-8 max-w-6xl">
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<!-- 标题部分 -->
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<div class="text-center mb-12">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-5xl font-bold gradient-text mb-4">甲苯二异氰酸酯-TDI</h1>
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<p class="text-lg text-gray-600 max-w-3xl mx-auto">全球供应收缩与需求修复驱动的强周期分析</p>
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<div class="mt-6 flex justify-center">
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<div class="w-24 h-1 bg-gradient-to-r from-blue-500 to-purple-500 rounded-full"></div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 概念事件时间轴 -->
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<div class="bg-white rounded-2xl shadow-lg p-6 mb-8 card-hover">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-6 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-history text-blue-500 mr-3"></i>概念事件时间轴
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</h2>
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<div class="relative pl-8">
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<div class="timeline-line"></div>
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<div class="mb-6 timeline-dot">
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<div class="ml-4">
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<div class="flex items-center mb-1">
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<span class="text-sm font-semibold text-blue-600 bg-blue-50 px-2 py-1 rounded">2025年7月12日</span>
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</div>
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-800">科思创德国工厂火灾</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600">科思创德国多尔马根工厂因电气火灾导致30万吨TDI装置不可抗力停产，全球供应收缩约16%。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="mb-6 timeline-dot">
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<div class="ml-4">
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<div class="flex items-center mb-1">
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<span class="text-sm font-semibold text-blue-600 bg-blue-50 px-2 py-1 rounded">2025年7月15日-8月</span>
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</div>
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-800">国内装置集中检修</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600">国内万华福建（36万吨）、新疆巨力（20万吨）、甘肃银光（15万吨）等装置集中检修，国内产能利用率降至57%。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="mb-6 timeline-dot">
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<div class="ml-4">
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<div class="flex items-center mb-1">
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<span class="text-sm font-semibold text-blue-600 bg-blue-50 px-2 py-1 rounded">2025年7月17日-22日</span>
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</div>
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-800">TDI价格连续上涨</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600">TDI价格连续6个工作日上涨，从7月12日的12,350元/吨飙升至16,250元/吨（涨幅31.6%），年内累计涨幅26%。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="mb-6 timeline-dot">
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<div class="ml-4">
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<div class="flex items-center mb-1">
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<span class="text-sm font-semibold text-blue-600 bg-blue-50 px-2 py-1 rounded">2025年7月27日</span>
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</div>
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-800">日本三井化学事故停产</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600">日本三井化学5万吨TDI装置因氯气泄漏事故停产，全球42%产能短期停摆。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-dot">
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<div class="ml-4">
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<div class="flex items-center mb-1">
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<span class="text-sm font-semibold text-blue-600 bg-blue-50 px-2 py-1 rounded">长期趋势</span>
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</div>
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-800">全球产能向中国集中</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600">2023-2025年，海外巴斯夫（德国30万吨）、东曹（日本2.5万吨）、阿根廷Petroquímica（2.8万吨）等装置永久关停，中国占比从2023年55.9%升至2025年60%+。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心观点摘要 -->
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<div class="bg-gradient-to-r from-blue-50 to-purple-50 rounded-2xl shadow-lg p-6 mb-8 card-hover">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-6 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-lightbulb text-yellow-500 mr-3"></i>核心观点摘要
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</h2>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div class="bg-white rounded-xl p-5 shadow-sm">
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 mt-1">
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<div class="w-8 h-8 rounded-full bg-blue-100 flex items-center justify-center">
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<i class="fas fa-chart-line text-blue-600 text-sm"></i>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="ml-4">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-1">市场周期判断</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600">TDI正处于"供给收缩+需求修复"驱动的强周期阶段，短期价格弹性由海外不可抗力与国内检修潮共振触发，长期逻辑是全球产能向中国龙头集中。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-white rounded-xl p-5 shadow-sm">
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 mt-1">
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<div class="w-8 h-8 rounded-full bg-purple-100 flex items-center justify-center">
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<i class="fas fa-building text-purple-600 text-sm"></i>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="ml-4">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-1">核心受益标的</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600">万华化学（144万吨产能）和沧州大化（16万吨产能）是核心受益标的，但需警惕2026年后新增产能释放的潜在过剩风险。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心逻辑与市场认知分析 -->
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-8 mb-8">
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<!-- 供给端 -->
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<div class="bg-white rounded-2xl shadow-lg p-6 card-hover">
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<h2 class="text-xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-4 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-industry text-red-500 mr-3"></i>供给端硬收缩
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</h2>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div class="border-l-4 border-red-500 pl-4 py-1">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-800">海外产能收缩</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">科思创德国（30万吨）、万华匈牙利（25万吨）、三井化学（5万吨）不可抗力，全球短期有效产能减少147万吨（占42%）。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="border-l-4 border-red-500 pl-4 py-1">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-800">国内检修潮</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">7-8月检修涉及71万吨产能（占国内43%），库存降至2.2万吨（历史低位）。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 需求端 -->
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<div class="bg-white rounded-2xl shadow-lg p-6 card-hover">
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<h2 class="text-xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-4 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-shopping-cart text-green-500 mr-3"></i>需求端边际改善
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</h2>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div class="border-l-4 border-green-500 pl-4 py-1">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-800">地产链需求</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">2025年"以旧换新"政策刺激家具换新，软体家具占TDI下游64.5%，2025年H1家具零售额同比+12%。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="border-l-4 border-green-500 pl-4 py-1">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-800">汽车需求增长</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">新能源车单车TDI用量较传统车提升30%，2025年H1中国新能源车产量同比+35%。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 市场热度与预期差 -->
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<div class="bg-white rounded-2xl shadow-lg p-6 mb-8 card-hover">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-6 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-fire text-orange-500 mr-3"></i>市场热度与预期差
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</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-3">市场热度与情绪</h3>
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<div class="space-y-3">
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<div class="flex items-center">
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<div class="w-10 h-10 rounded-full bg-orange-100 flex items-center justify-center flex-shrink-0">
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<i class="fas fa-newspaper text-orange-500"></i>
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</div>
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<div class="ml-3">
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<p class="text-sm font-medium text-gray-800">新闻热度</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">7月17-22日，TDI相关报道量激增300%（财联社、证券时报连续头条）</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-center">
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<div class="w-10 h-10 rounded-full bg-orange-100 flex items-center justify-center flex-shrink-0">
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<i class="fas fa-file-alt text-orange-500"></i>
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</div>
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<div class="ml-3">
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<p class="text-sm font-medium text-gray-800">研报密集度</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">7月21-24日，申万、国联、中泰等8家券商发布TDI涨价点评，一致预期价格将突破20,000元/吨</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-3">预期差分析</h3>
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<div class="space-y-3">
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<div class="bg-yellow-50 rounded-lg p-3">
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<p class="text-sm font-medium text-gray-800 mb-1">市场共识</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">价格短期上涨由检修驱动，但忽略了海外装置老化（欧洲60%装置运行超15年）导致的长期不可逆退出</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-green-50 rounded-lg p-3">
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<p class="text-sm font-medium text-gray-800 mb-1">被低估点</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">沧州大化技改后成本下降700元/吨（2025年Q4投产），毛利率有望从13%升至25%，但市场仅给予周期股估值（PE 8倍）</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 关键催化剂与未来发展路径 -->
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-8 mb-8">
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<!-- 近期催化剂 -->
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<div class="bg-white rounded-2xl shadow-lg p-6 card-hover">
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<h2 class="text-xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-4 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-bolt text-yellow-500 mr-3"></i>近期催化剂（3-6个月）
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</h2>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 mt-1">
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<div class="w-6 h-6 rounded-full bg-yellow-100 flex items-center justify-center">
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-yellow-600">1</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="ml-3">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-800">2025年8月</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">万华福建36万吨装置检修结束，复产进度决定价格是否二次冲高</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 mt-1">
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<div class="w-6 h-6 rounded-full bg-yellow-100 flex items-center justify-center">
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-yellow-600">2</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="ml-3">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-800">2025年9月</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">美国对中国TDI反倾销复审结果，若维持高关税，中国出口将转向东南亚（2025年H1出口越南+200%）</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 长期发展路径 -->
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<div class="bg-white rounded-2xl shadow-lg p-6 card-hover">
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<h2 class="text-xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-4 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-road text-blue-500 mr-3"></i>长期发展路径
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</h2>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 mt-1">
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<div class="w-6 h-6 rounded-full bg-blue-100 flex items-center justify-center">
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-blue-600">1</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="ml-3">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-800">2025-2027年</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">万华化学福建二期（33万吨）、沧州大化技改（+23.5万吨）投产，全球CR4集中度升至95%</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 mt-1">
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<div class="w-6 h-6 rounded-full bg-blue-100 flex items-center justify-center">
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<span class="text-xs font-bold text-blue-600">2</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="ml-3">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-800">2028年后</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-600 text-sm">欧洲剩余老旧装置（如亨斯曼48万吨）或永久关停，中国出口份额有望突破50%</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 产业链与核心公司深度剖析 -->
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<div class="bg-white rounded-2xl shadow-lg p-6 mb-8 card-hover">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-6 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-sitemap text-purple-500 mr-3"></i>产业链与核心公司深度剖析
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</h2>
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<!-- 产业链图谱 -->
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<div class="mb-8">
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<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-4">产业链图谱</h3>
|
||
<div class="flex flex-col md:flex-row items-center justify-between bg-gradient-to-r from-purple-50 to-blue-50 rounded-xl p-4">
|
||
<div class="text-center p-4">
|
||
<div class="w-16 h-16 rounded-full bg-purple-100 flex items-center justify-center mx-auto mb-2">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-flask text-purple-600 text-xl"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-gray-800">上游</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">甲苯（占成本60%）、硝酸、液氯</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="my-4 md:my-0">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-arrow-right text-gray-400 text-2xl"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="text-center p-4">
|
||
<div class="w-16 h-16 rounded-full bg-blue-100 flex items-center justify-center mx-auto mb-2">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-industry text-blue-600 text-xl"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-gray-800">中游</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">TDI生产商</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="my-4 md:my-0">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-arrow-right text-gray-400 text-2xl"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="text-center p-4">
|
||
<div class="w-16 h-16 rounded-full bg-green-100 flex items-center justify-center mx-auto mb-2">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-couch text-green-600 text-xl"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-gray-800">下游</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">软体家具（64.5%）、涂料（22%）、汽车内饰（10%）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 核心玩家对比 -->
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-4">核心玩家对比</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="min-w-full divide-y divide-gray-200">
|
||
<thead class="bg-gray-50">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">公司</th>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">产能（万吨）</th>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">成本优势</th>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">2025年催化因素</th>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">风险点</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody class="bg-white divide-y divide-gray-200">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="flex-shrink-0 h-10 w-10">
|
||
<div class="h-10 w-10 rounded-full bg-blue-100 flex items-center justify-center">
|
||
<span class="text-blue-800 font-bold">万</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="ml-4">
|
||
<div class="text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">万华化学</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm text-gray-500">144（全球33%）</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">一体化+规模效应（成本低1000元/吨）</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">福建二期33万吨Q4投产</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">2026年新增产能过剩</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="flex-shrink-0 h-10 w-10">
|
||
<div class="h-10 w-10 rounded-full bg-purple-100 flex items-center justify-center">
|
||
<span class="text-purple-800 font-bold">沧</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="ml-4">
|
||
<div class="text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">沧州大化</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm text-gray-500">16（国内10%）</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">技改后成本降700元/吨</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">2025年Q4技改完成，弹性最大</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">规模劣势，议价权弱</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="flex-shrink-0 h-10 w-10">
|
||
<div class="h-10 w-10 rounded-full bg-green-100 flex items-center justify-center">
|
||
<span class="text-green-800 font-bold">巴</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="ml-4">
|
||
<div class="text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">巴斯夫</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm text-gray-500">48（欧洲）</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">欧洲能源成本高（+2000元/吨）</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">德国装置永久关停预期</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">退出中国市场</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 验证与证伪 -->
|
||
<div class="mt-8 grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
|
||
<div class="bg-green-50 rounded-xl p-4">
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-2 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-check-circle text-green-500 mr-2"></i>数据印证
|
||
</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">2025年H1中国TDI出口量22万吨（同比+97%），验证海外产能退出逻辑</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg-yellow-50 rounded-xl p-4">
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-2 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-exclamation-circle text-yellow-500 mr-2"></i>矛盾点
|
||
</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">研报称"需求见顶"，但家具换新政策下2025年H1软体家具订单+15%，需求端存在低估</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 潜在风险与挑战 -->
|
||
<div class="bg-white rounded-2xl shadow-lg p-6 mb-8 card-hover">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-6 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-exclamation-triangle text-red-500 mr-3"></i>潜在风险与挑战
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="min-w-full divide-y divide-gray-200">
|
||
<thead class="bg-gray-50">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">风险类型</th>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">具体表现</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody class="bg-white divide-y divide-gray-200">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">技术风险</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">非光气法TDI技术（如陕煤中试）若突破，可能颠覆现有光气法工艺（万华、沧州）</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">商业化风险</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">2026年万华+沧州新增56.5万吨产能，若需求增速低于5%，行业或再次过剩</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">政策风险</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">欧盟碳关税（2026年实施）可能增加中国TDI出口成本200-300美元/吨</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">信息矛盾</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">路演称"欧洲需求疲软"，但2025年H1中国出口欧洲+120%（海关数据）</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 综合结论与投资启示 -->
|
||
<div class="bg-gradient-to-r from-blue-600 to-purple-600 rounded-2xl shadow-lg p-6 mb-8 text-white">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-chart-pie text-yellow-300 mr-3"></i>综合结论与投资启示
|
||
</h2>
|
||
|
||
<div class="mb-6">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">阶段判断</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-blue-100">TDI处于"供给硬缺口+需求弱复苏"驱动的强周期中段，非主题炒作，而是基本面实质性改善</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="mb-6">
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">投资方向</h3>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-4">
|
||
<div class="bg-blue-500 bg-opacity-30 rounded-xl p-4">
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold mb-2 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-clock text-yellow-300 mr-2"></i>短期（3个月）
|
||
</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-blue-100 text-sm">沧州大化（16万吨产能，价格每涨1000元增厚利润1.2亿元，弹性最大）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg-purple-500 bg-opacity-30 rounded-xl p-4">
|
||
<h4 class="font-semibold mb-2 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-calendar-alt text-yellow-300 mr-2"></i>长期（1-2年）
|
||
</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-blue-100 text-sm">万华化学（全球定价权+成本护城河，2026年产能占全球40%）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="text-xl font-semibold mb-3">关键跟踪指标</h3>
|
||
<div class="space-y-3">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="w-8 h-8 rounded-full bg-yellow-300 bg-opacity-30 flex items-center justify-center flex-shrink-0">
|
||
<span class="text-sm font-bold">1</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="ml-3">
|
||
<p class="font-medium">库存</p>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-blue-100">国内TDI库存能否持续低于3万吨（当前2.2万吨）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="w-8 h-8 rounded-full bg-yellow-300 bg-opacity-30 flex items-center justify-center flex-shrink-0">
|
||
<span class="text-sm font-bold">2</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="ml-3">
|
||
<p class="font-medium">出口</p>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-blue-100">2025年Q3中国TDI出口量是否维持10万吨/月以上</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="w-8 h-8 rounded-full bg-yellow-300 bg-opacity-30 flex items-center justify-center flex-shrink-0">
|
||
<span class="text-sm font-bold">3</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="ml-3">
|
||
<p class="font-medium">价差</p>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-blue-100">TDI-甲苯价差能否突破12,000元/吨（当前11,181元/吨）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 关联股票表格 -->
|
||
<div class="bg-white rounded-2xl shadow-lg p-6 card-hover">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold text-gray-800 mb-6 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-table text-green-500 mr-3"></i>关联股票
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<div class="table-responsive">
|
||
<table class="min-w-full divide-y divide-gray-200">
|
||
<thead class="bg-gray-50">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">股票</th>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">项目</th>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">产能/进展</th>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">信源</th>
|
||
<th scope="col" class="px-6 py-3 text-left text-xs font-medium text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wider">原因</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody class="bg-white divide-y divide-gray-200">
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="flex-shrink-0 h-10 w-10">
|
||
<div class="h-10 w-10 rounded-full bg-blue-100 flex items-center justify-center">
|
||
<span class="text-blue-800 font-bold">万</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="ml-4">
|
||
<div class="text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">万华化学</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">TDI总产能144万吨/年</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">现有111万吨/年+33万吨/年预计2025年5月投产</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">研报</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">A股第一</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="flex-shrink-0 h-10 w-10">
|
||
<div class="h-10 w-10 rounded-full bg-purple-100 flex items-center justify-center">
|
||
<span class="text-purple-800 font-bold">沧</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="ml-4">
|
||
<div class="text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">沧州大化</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">TDI产能16万吨</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">约占国内产能的10%</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">研报</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">A股第二</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 whitespace-nowrap">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="flex-shrink-0 h-10 w-10">
|
||
<div class="h-10 w-10 rounded-full bg-green-100 flex items-center justify-center">
|
||
<span class="text-green-800 font-bold">东</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="ml-4">
|
||
<div class="text-sm font-medium text-gray-900">东方盛虹</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">甲苯二异氰酸酯（TDI）中试技术开发项目</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">环境影响报告书正式批复</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">年报</td>
|
||
<td class="px-6 py-4 text-sm text-gray-500">控股子公司斯尔邦项目</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
// 添加滚动动画效果
|
||
const observerOptions = {
|
||
root: null,
|
||
rootMargin: '0px',
|
||
threshold: 0.1
|
||
};
|
||
|
||
const observer = new IntersectionObserver((entries) => {
|
||
entries.forEach(entry => {
|
||
if (entry.isIntersecting) {
|
||
entry.target.classList.add('animate-fadeIn');
|
||
observer.unobserve(entry.target);
|
||
}
|
||
});
|
||
}, observerOptions);
|
||
|
||
document.querySelectorAll('.card-hover').forEach(card => {
|
||
observer.observe(card);
|
||
});
|
||
</script>
|
||
|
||
<style>
|
||
@keyframes fadeIn {
|
||
from { opacity: 0; transform: translateY(20px); }
|
||
to { opacity: 1; transform: translateY(0); }
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
.animate-fadeIn {
|
||
animation: fadeIn 0.6s ease-out forwards;
|
||
}
|
||
</style>
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html>
|
||
``` |