687 lines
34 KiB
HTML
687 lines
34 KiB
HTML
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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN">
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<head>
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<meta charset="UTF-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
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<title>风电概念分析 - 新能源领域重要组成部分</title>
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/bootstrap@5.3.0/dist/css/bootstrap.min.css" rel="stylesheet">
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/bootstrap-icons@1.10.0/font/bootstrap-icons.css" rel="stylesheet">
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<style>
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:root {
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body {
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font-family: 'Microsoft YaHei', 'PingFang SC', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif;
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background-color: #f5f7fa;
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.timeline {
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.footer {
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}
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@media (max-width: 768px) {
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.hero-section {
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padding: 40px 0;
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}
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.section-title {
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font-size: 1.5rem;
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}
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.table {
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font-size: 0.8rem;
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}
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.timeline {
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padding-left: 20px;
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body>
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<!-- Hero Section -->
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<section class="hero-section">
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<div class="container">
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<div class="hero-content">
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<div class="row align-items-center">
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<div class="col-lg-8">
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<h1 class="display-4 fw-bold mb-4">风电概念分析</h1>
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<p class="lead mb-4">风电行业正处于从复苏到高速增长的关键转折点，已从主题炒作阶段进入基本面驱动阶段。随着风电在新能源中装机占比持续提高以及深远海、漂浮式风电等新技术发展，风电行业将迎来更广阔的发展空间。</p>
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<div class="d-flex flex-wrap gap-2">
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<span class="badge bg-light text-dark">新能源</span>
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<span class="badge bg-light text-dark">海上风电</span>
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<span class="badge bg-light text-dark">深远海</span>
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<span class="badge bg-light text-dark">装机占比提升</span>
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<span class="badge bg-light text-dark">IRR优势</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="col-lg-4 text-center">
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<i class="bi bi-wind" style="font-size: 8rem; opacity: 0.7;"></i>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Main Content -->
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<div class="container my-5">
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<!-- Executive Summary -->
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<section class="mb-5">
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<h2 class="section-title">核心观点摘要</h2>
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<div class="row">
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<div class="col-lg-12">
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<div class="card">
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<div class="card-body">
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<p>风电行业正处于从复苏到高速增长的关键转折点，主要由海上风电重启、装机占比提升和深远海规划加速驱动。短期看，行业基本面高度景气，价格稳定且成本下降带来毛利率修复；中长期看，随着风电在新能源中装机占比持续提高以及深远海、漂浮式风电等新技术发展，风电行业将迎来更广阔的发展空间，"十五五"期间年均新增装机有望达150GW。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Timeline -->
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<section class="mb-5">
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<h2 class="section-title">风电行业发展时间轴</h2>
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<div class="card">
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<div class="card-body">
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<div class="timeline">
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<div class="timeline-date">2023年</div>
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<div class="timeline-content">
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<p>上半年风电装机容量约23GW，同比增长77%，但海上风电装机约1.1GW，低于预期。8月，电气风电调整全年装机预期为60GW左右，其中海上风电约6GW（年初预期为6-8GW）。5-10月，海力风电经历业绩下滑，主要原因是坏账计提和投资收益不理想。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<div class="timeline-date">2024年</div>
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<div class="timeline-content">
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<p>年初，风电板块回调明显，原因在于行业缺乏积极催化及大盘整体表现偏弱。1-11月，五大发电集团风电核准量约74GW，同比增长61%，风电核准、光伏备案量比例1.6:1。11月，中泰电新发布风电齿轮箱研报，称之为"风电未被挖掘之宝"。12月，海上风电塔筒行业路演指出塔筒行业将受益于国内外海上需求增长。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="timeline-item">
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<div class="timeline-date">2025年</div>
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<div class="timeline-content">
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<p>1月，广东帆石一海上风电项目开工，是项目开工的重要标志，国内海风装机确定性增强。1月，风机中标均价为1564元/kw（陆风不含塔筒），与2024年行业均价基本一致，价格稳定。2月，<strong>20GW深远海风示范项目</strong>获得相关部门批复，预计推动示范项目及相关深远海管理办法。6月，广大特材业绩预告显示25年上半年实现营收25.00亿元，同比增加32.91%，归母净利润2.00亿元，同比增加367.51%。7月，中信建投电新发布风电更新，指出2025年上半年新增核准90GW，同比增长。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Core Drivers -->
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<section class="mb-5">
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<h2 class="section-title">核心驱动力</h2>
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<div class="row">
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<div class="col-md-6 col-lg-4 mb-4">
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<div class="card driver-card h-100">
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<div class="card-body">
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<h5 class="card-title"><i class="bi bi-graph-up-arrow text-primary me-2"></i>装机占比提升</h5>
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<p class="card-text">2024年风电、光伏装机及招标占比预计约为3:1，风电占比仅为25%。部分发电集团对"十五五"期间风电装机占新能源比例规划为40%-50%，"十四五"不足30%。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="col-md-6 col-lg-4 mb-4">
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<div class="card driver-card h-100">
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<div class="card-body">
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<h5 class="card-title"><i class="bi bi-cash-coin text-success me-2"></i>IRR优势</h5>
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<p class="card-text">某发电集团24年最新投决风光项目收益率显示，集中式风电全投资IRR8.75%，集中式光伏全投资IRR6.68%，风电收益率更高，具备更高安全边际。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="col-md-6 col-lg-4 mb-4">
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<div class="card driver-card h-100">
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<div class="card-body">
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<h5 class="card-title"><i class="bi bi-lightning-charge text-warning me-2"></i>系统适应性</h5>
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<p class="card-text">风电优势在于出力分布更加分散，电力系统更能够适应风电发力特点，系统更具保障。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="col-md-6 col-lg-4 mb-4">
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<div class="card driver-card h-100">
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<div class="card-body">
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<h5 class="card-title"><i class="bi bi-water text-info me-2"></i>海上风电复苏</h5>
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<p class="card-text">海上风电经历1-2年沉寂期后，随着因素解决，将重新恢复为成长性行业。多个项目已进入正常施工状态。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="col-md-6 col-lg-4 mb-4">
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<div class="card driver-card h-100">
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<div class="card-body">
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<h5 class="card-title"><i class="bi bi-compass text-danger me-2"></i>深远海规划</h5>
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<p class="card-text">20GW深远海风示范项目获得批复，上海深远海规划2000万千瓦，"十五五"期间陆续推进。国家大力推海洋经济，占比目标从10%提升至30%以上。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="col-md-6 col-lg-4 mb-4">
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<div class="card driver-card h-100">
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<div class="card-body">
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<h5 class="card-title"><i class="bi bi-gear text-secondary me-2"></i>技术创新</h5>
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<p class="card-text">风机大型化、半直驱/双馈技术路线优化、核心零部件国产化等技术进步带来成本下降和效率提升。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</section>
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<!-- Industry Chain -->
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<section class="mb-5">
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<h2 class="section-title">产业链图谱</h2>
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<div class="card">
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<div class="card-body">
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<div class="row">
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<div class="col-md-4 mb-4">
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<h5 class="text-primary"><i class="bi bi-cpu me-2"></i>上游核心零部件</h5>
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<div class="mb-3">
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<span class="industry-tag">叶片</span>
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<span class="industry-tag">齿轮箱</span>
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<span class="industry-tag">轮毂</span>
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<span class="industry-tag">机舱</span>
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<span class="industry-tag">变流器</span>
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<span class="industry-tag">主轴</span>
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<span class="industry-tag">铸件</span>
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<span class="industry-tag">干式变压器</span>
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<span class="industry-tag">润滑系统</span>
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</div>
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<p>上游核心零部件是风电产业的基础，包括叶片、齿轮箱、轮毂、机舱、变流器、主轴、铸件等。其中，叶片和齿轮箱是成本占比较高的核心部件。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="col-md-4 mb-4">
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<h5 class="text-success"><i class="bi bi-building me-2"></i>中游整机制造</h5>
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<div class="mb-3">
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<span class="industry-tag">金风科技</span>
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<span class="industry-tag">远景能源</span>
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<span class="industry-tag">明阳智能</span>
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<span class="industry-tag">运达股份</span>
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<span class="industry-tag">三一重能</span>
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<span class="industry-tag">东方电气</span>
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<span class="industry-tag">电气风电</span>
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</div>
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<p>中游整机制造是风电产业的核心环节，主要企业包括金风科技（国内第一，市占率21%）、明阳智能（国内第三，市占率14%；海风第一，市占率31%）等。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="col-md-4 mb-4">
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<h5 class="text-warning"><i class="bi bi-plug me-2"></i>下游风电场运营及配套设备</h5>
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<div class="mb-3">
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<span class="industry-tag">塔筒/管桩</span>
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<span class="industry-tag">海缆</span>
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<span class="industry-tag">系泊链</span>
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<span class="industry-tag">紧固件</span>
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<span class="industry-tag">风电场运营</span>
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</div>
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||
<p>下游主要包括风电场运营及配套设备，如塔筒/管桩、海缆、系泊链、紧固件等。随着海上风电复苏和深远海规划加速，这些环节将迎来快速发展。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Stock Data -->
|
||
<section class="mb-5">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title">风电相关股票数据</h2>
|
||
<div class="card">
|
||
<div class="card-body">
|
||
<div class="table-responsive">
|
||
<table class="table table-hover">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>行业</th>
|
||
<th>分类</th>
|
||
<th>市占率/产品类型</th>
|
||
<th>项目/原因</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>天顺风能</td>
|
||
<td>风电</td>
|
||
<td>塔筒</td>
|
||
<td>陆上风塔市占率A股第一</td>
|
||
<td>2024年风电塔筒法兰营收6.43亿，占收入37.26%</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>大金重工</td>
|
||
<td>风电</td>
|
||
<td>塔筒</td>
|
||
<td>陆上风塔市占率A股第二</td>
|
||
<td>网络资料</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>天能重工</td>
|
||
<td>风电</td>
|
||
<td>塔筒</td>
|
||
<td>陆上风塔市占率A股第三</td>
|
||
<td>网络资料</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>泰胜风能</td>
|
||
<td>风电</td>
|
||
<td>塔筒</td>
|
||
<td>陆上风塔市占率A股第四</td>
|
||
<td>风电钢结构产品</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>中材科技</td>
|
||
<td>风电</td>
|
||
<td>叶片</td>
|
||
<td>全球第一</td>
|
||
<td>2024年销售风电叶片24GW，市占率保持全球第一</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>时代新材</td>
|
||
<td>风电</td>
|
||
<td>叶片</td>
|
||
<td>国内第二</td>
|
||
<td>风电叶片行业，公司目前稳居国内第二</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>中国高速传动</td>
|
||
<td>风电</td>
|
||
<td>齿轮箱</td>
|
||
<td>港股，全球风电齿轮箱龙头，2024年市占率33.98%</td>
|
||
<td>网络资料</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>德力佳</td>
|
||
<td>风电</td>
|
||
<td>齿轮箱</td>
|
||
<td>2025年8月22日IPO过会，2024年全球风电齿轮箱市占率10.36%</td>
|
||
<td>研报</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>威力传动</td>
|
||
<td>风电</td>
|
||
<td>齿轮箱</td>
|
||
<td>风电主齿轮箱领域新进入者</td>
|
||
<td>2025年底一期产能（1500-2000台）将完成爬坡，2026年有望大规模放量（预期出货1200台）</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>金风科技</td>
|
||
<td>风电</td>
|
||
<td>整机</td>
|
||
<td>国内第一，市占率21%</td>
|
||
<td>2024年中国风电整机新增装机容量18.7GW，占比21%，第一</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>明阳智能</td>
|
||
<td>风电</td>
|
||
<td>整机</td>
|
||
<td>国内第三，市占率14%；海风第一，市占率31%</td>
|
||
<td>2024年中国风电整机新增装机容量12.3GW，占比14%，第三；同年海风第一，新增装机1.76GW，占比31%</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>东方电缆</td>
|
||
<td>风电</td>
|
||
<td>海缆</td>
|
||
<td>海缆龙头企业</td>
|
||
<td>2024年海缆营收27.78亿，占营收30.55%</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>海力风电</td>
|
||
<td>风电</td>
|
||
<td>管桩</td>
|
||
<td>国内海上风电塔筒龙头</td>
|
||
<td>截至2024年末，公司拥有海力海上、海力装备、海恒设备、海力风能、山东东营、威海乳山、江苏启东（一期）等多个生产基地</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>亚星锚链</td>
|
||
<td>风电</td>
|
||
<td>系泊链</td>
|
||
<td>2024年营收5.37亿，占营收比例27%</td>
|
||
<td>财报</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td>新强联</td>
|
||
<td>风电</td>
|
||
<td>主轴</td>
|
||
<td>主轴承制造商</td>
|
||
<td>机构看好公司逐步实现在TRB轴承领域40%的市场占有率</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Investment Insights -->
|
||
<section class="mb-5">
|
||
<h2 class="section-title">投资启示</h2>
|
||
|
||
<div class="value-proposition">
|
||
<h5><i class="bi bi-star-fill me-2"></i>最具投资价值的细分环节</h5>
|
||
<div class="row">
|
||
<div class="col-md-6">
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>海上风电产业链</strong>：随着海上风电复苏和深远海规划加速，海上风电产业链将迎来快速发展。重点关注海上塔筒/管桩（海力风电、大金重工）、海缆（东方电缆、中天科技）等环节。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>风电齿轮箱</strong>：齿轮箱占风电机组成本18-21%，仅次于叶片，市场需求全球空间328亿。随着双馈/半直驱机型占比提升，齿轮箱需求有望快速放量。重点关注威力传动、广大特材等。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="col-md-6">
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>主轴承</strong>：随着风机大型化以来，主机向TRB转变，主轴承需求增加。重点关注新强联，随着产能爬坡以及主轴承的出货占比进一步提升，公司利润率处于上升区间。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>漂浮式风电</strong>：随着深远海发展，漂浮式风电将成为重要技术路线。根据全球风能协会预测，到2030年，全球漂浮式累计装机容量将超过30GW。重点关注亚星锚链、东方电缆等。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="investment-highlight">
|
||
<h5><i class="bi bi-lightbulb-fill me-2"></i>核心公司推荐</h5>
|
||
<div class="row">
|
||
<div class="col-md-6">
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>海力风电</strong>：国内海上风电塔筒龙头，随着江苏项目解决，公司业绩弹性明显，2025年出货预计达80万吨以上。导管架占比提升，产能利用率提高后吨利润率回暖。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>大金重工</strong>：陆上风塔市占率A股第二，在海外市场有布局，2024年开始，接洽订单加工费已超过2000元/吨，并继续上涨。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="col-md-6">
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>威力传动</strong>：风电主齿轮箱领域新进入者，2025年底一期产能（1500-2000台）将完成爬坡，2026年有望大规模放量（预期出货1200台）。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>东方电缆</strong>：海缆龙头企业，拥有最全面的海缆技术，包括500千伏交流、500千伏以上柔性直流及220千伏、330千伏交流等技术。随着深远海发展，细分环节龙头优势将进一步显现。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="risk-warning">
|
||
<h5><i class="bi bi-exclamation-triangle-fill me-2"></i>需要重点跟踪和验证的关键指标</h5>
|
||
<div class="row">
|
||
<div class="col-md-6">
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>风电核准量和招标量</strong>：核准量是风机招标量的前瞻指标，需要持续跟踪风电核准量和招标量的变化，验证风电装机增长逻辑。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>海上风电项目进展</strong>：特别是江苏项目、广东帆石一等项目的进展，这些项目的开工和进展将直接影响海上风电产业链的业绩。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>深远海示范项目进展</strong>：春节前20GW深远海风示范项目获得相关部门批复，需要跟踪这些示范项目的进展和相关深远海管理办法的出台。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="col-md-6">
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><strong>风机价格变化</strong>：风机价格直接影响整机厂商和零部件厂商的毛利率，需要持续跟踪风机价格的变化。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>核心零部件供需情况</strong>：特别是齿轮箱、主轴承等核心零部件的供需情况，目前产业反馈齿轮箱存在偏紧预期。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>风电企业毛利率变化</strong>：随着价格稳定&成本下降，风电企业毛利率有望修复，需要持续跟踪风电企业毛利率的变化。</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</section>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Footer -->
|
||
<footer class="footer">
|
||
<div class="container">
|
||
<div class="row">
|
||
<div class="col-md-6">
|
||
<h5>风电概念分析</h5>
|
||
<p>风电行业正处于从复苏到高速增长的关键转折点，已从主题炒作阶段进入基本面驱动阶段。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="col-md-3">
|
||
<h5>相关链接</h5>
|
||
<ul class="list-unstyled">
|
||
<li><a href="#" class="text-white-50">新能源政策</a></li>
|
||
<li><a href="#" class="text-white-50">风电技术发展</a></li>
|
||
<li><a href="#" class="text-white-50">海上风电规划</a></li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="col-md-3">
|
||
<h5>数据来源</h5>
|
||
<ul class="list-unstyled">
|
||
<li><a href="#" class="text-white-50">行业研报</a></li>
|
||
<li><a href="#" class="text-white-50">公司财报</a></li>
|
||
<li><a href="#" class="text-white-50">互动平台</a></li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<hr class="my-4 bg-white">
|
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<div class="text-center">
|
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<p class="mb-0">© 2025 风电概念分析. 保留所有权利.</p>
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