819 lines
38 KiB
HTML
819 lines
38 KiB
HTML
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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN">
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<head>
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<meta charset="utf-8" />
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1, shrink-to-fit=no">
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<title>农药证件厂家 - 行业洞察报告</title>
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<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css?family=Inter:300,400,500,600,700,800" rel="stylesheet" />
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<!-- Nucleo Icons -->
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<link href="https://demos.creative-tim.com/soft-ui-design-system-pro/assets/css/nucleo-icons.css" rel="stylesheet" />
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<link href="https://demos.creative-tim.com/soft-ui-design-system-pro/assets/css/nucleo-svg.css" rel="stylesheet" />
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<!-- Font Awesome Icons -->
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<script src="https://kit.fontawesome.com/1d2b6c4f81.js" crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
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<!-- CSS Files -->
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<link href="https://demos.creative-tim.com/soft-ui-design-system-pro/assets/css/soft-design-system-pro.css?v=1.2.0" rel="stylesheet" />
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/tailwindcss@2.2.19/dist/tailwind.min.css" rel="stylesheet">
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@5" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@5/themes.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<style>
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body {
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font-family: 'Inter', sans-serif;
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, #f5f7fa 0%, #e4efe9 100%);
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min-height: 100vh;
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}
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.card {
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border-radius: 1rem;
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box-shadow: 0 10px 15px -3px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1), 0 4px 6px -2px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.05);
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transition: all 0.3s ease;
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}
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.card:hover {
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transform: translateY(-5px);
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box-shadow: 0 20px 25px -5px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1), 0 10px 10px -5px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.04);
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}
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.gradient-text {
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background: linear-gradient(90deg, #2d7d32 0%, #4caf50 100%);
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-webkit-background-clip: text;
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-webkit-text-fill-color: transparent;
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}
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.timeline-dot {
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width: 16px;
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height: 16px;
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border-radius: 50%;
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background-color: #4caf50;
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position: relative;
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}
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.timeline-dot::after {
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content: '';
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position: absolute;
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top: 50%;
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left: 50%;
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transform: translate(-50%, -50%);
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width: 8px;
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height: 8px;
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border-radius: 50%;
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background-color: white;
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}
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.table-responsive {
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overflow-x: visible;
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}
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.badge-custom {
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padding: 0.25rem 0.75rem;
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font-weight: 600;
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border-radius: 0.375rem;
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font-size: 0.75rem;
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}
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.icon-box {
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width: 40px;
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height: 40px;
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border-radius: 0.5rem;
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display: flex;
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align-items: center;
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justify-content: center;
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background-color: rgba(76, 175, 80, 0.1);
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color: #2d7d32;
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="py-8 px-4 md:px-8">
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<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto">
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<!-- 标题部分 -->
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<div class="text-center mb-10">
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<h1 class="text-3xl md:text-4xl font-bold gradient-text mb-3">农药证件厂家行业洞察报告</h1>
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<p class="text-gray-600 max-w-3xl mx-auto">政策洗牌与供需反转双重拐点下的投资机会分析</p>
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</div>
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<!-- 概念事件部分 -->
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<div class="card bg-white p-6 mb-8">
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<div class="flex items-center mb-5">
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<div class="icon-box mr-3">
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<i class="fas fa-flag"></i>
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</div>
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<h2 class="text-xl font-bold text-gray-800">概念事件</h2>
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</div>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div class="bg-green-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-green-800 mb-2 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-landmark mr-2"></i>政策催化
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</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-700 text-sm">2025年7月，中国农药工业协会启动"正风治卷"三年行动，明确禁止"一证多品"，要求2027年底前实现"一品一证"。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-blue-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-blue-800 mb-2 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-chart-line mr-2"></i>供需拐点
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</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-700 text-sm">2024年11月农药出口数据（杀虫剂+33%、杀菌剂+12%）显示结构性紧缺，叠加库存周期见底，行业进入"去产能"阶段。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-purple-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-purple-800 mb-2 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-flask mr-2"></i>技术突破
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</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-700 text-sm">扬农化工的氟螨双醚、多氟虫二酰胺等创制药2024年获ISO命名，打开估值空间。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-amber-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-amber-800 mb-2 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-clock mr-2"></i>时间轴
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</h3>
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<ul class="text-gray-700 text-sm space-y-1">
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<li><span class="font-medium">2024Q3</span>：行业库存降至历史低位（草甘膦库存7万吨，开工率73%）</li>
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<li><span class="font-medium">2024Q4</span>：百草枯、氯虫苯甲酰胺等小品种涨价（氯虫价格单月+35%）</li>
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<li><span class="font-medium">2025H1</span>："一证一品"政策落地，中小厂家退出加速</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心观点摘要 -->
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<div class="card bg-gradient-to-r from-green-500 to-emerald-600 p-6 mb-8 text-white">
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<div class="flex items-center mb-5">
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<div class="icon-box mr-3 bg-white bg-opacity-20 text-white">
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<i class="fas fa-lightbulb"></i>
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</div>
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<h2 class="text-xl font-bold">核心观点摘要</h2>
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</div>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="timeline-dot mt-1 mr-3"></div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg mb-1">阶段判断</h3>
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<p>农药证件厂家正处于"政策洗牌+供需反转"的双重拐点，<span class="font-bold bg-white bg-opacity-20 px-2 py-1 rounded">从主题炒作转向基本面驱动</span>。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="timeline-dot mt-1 mr-3"></div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg mb-1">核心逻辑</h3>
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<p>政策强制出清（"一证一品"+环保高压）叠加库存周期见底，<span class="font-bold bg-white bg-opacity-20 px-2 py-1 rounded">登记证资源成为稀缺资产</span>，龙头集中度提升。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="timeline-dot mt-1 mr-3"></div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg mb-1">未来潜力</h3>
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<p>2025-2026年行业需求复苏（全球库存去化完成），<span class="font-bold bg-white bg-opacity-20 px-2 py-1 rounded">拥有登记证储备的龙头将享受量价齐升</span>。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心逻辑与市场认知分析 -->
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<div class="card bg-white p-6 mb-8">
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<div class="flex items-center mb-5">
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<div class="icon-box mr-3">
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<i class="fas fa-brain"></i>
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</div>
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<h2 class="text-xl font-bold text-gray-800">核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h2>
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</div>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
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<div class="border border-gray-200 rounded-lg p-5">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-gray-800 mb-3 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-cogs text-green-600 mr-2"></i>核心驱动力
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</h3>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-medium text-gray-700 mb-1">政策端</h4>
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<ul class="text-sm text-gray-600 space-y-1">
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<li>"一证一品"：预计淘汰<span class="font-bold text-red-600">80%中小厂家</span></li>
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<li>环保高压：西北园区开工率不足40%</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-medium text-gray-700 mb-1">供需端</h4>
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<ul class="text-sm text-gray-600 space-y-1">
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<li>供给收缩：2024年行业固定资产投资增速归零</li>
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<li>需求复苏：南美/北美补库启动</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-medium text-gray-700 mb-1">技术端</h4>
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<ul class="text-sm text-gray-600 space-y-1">
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<li>创制药红利：扬农化工、先达股份新品进入放量期</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="border border-gray-200 rounded-lg p-5">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-gray-800 mb-3 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-fire text-orange-500 mr-2"></i>市场热度与情绪
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</h3>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-medium text-gray-700 mb-1">研报密集度</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">2024年12月-2025年6月，<span class="font-bold text-green-600">中信证券、国联、德邦等8家机构</span>连发看多报告，情绪从谨慎转向乐观。</p>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-medium text-gray-700 mb-1">分歧点</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">市场担忧印度竞争，但路演显示<span class="font-bold text-blue-600">中国在高标准中间体仍具优势</span>（印度夏季高温停产）。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="mt-4 flex justify-center">
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<div class="w-full bg-gray-200 rounded-full h-2.5">
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<div class="bg-orange-500 h-2.5 rounded-full" style="width: 75%"></div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<p class="text-center text-xs text-gray-500">市场热度: 75%</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="border border-gray-200 rounded-lg p-5">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-gray-800 mb-3 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-exclamation-circle text-blue-500 mr-2"></i>预期差分析
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</h3>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-medium text-gray-700 mb-1">被忽略的关键</h4>
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<ul class="text-sm text-gray-600 space-y-2">
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-check-circle text-green-500 mt-0.5 mr-2"></i>
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<span><span class="font-bold">登记证壁垒</span>：市场低估"一证一品"对中小厂家的毁灭性打击（<span class="font-bold text-red-600">登记证办理成本500万-1000万/个</span>）</span>
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</li>
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<li class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-check-circle text-green-500 mt-0.5 mr-2"></i>
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<span><span class="font-bold">库存周期</span>：2024年行业亏损面达60%，但<span class="font-bold text-blue-600">头部企业现金流充沛</span>（广信股份账上现金80亿）</span>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 关键催化剂与未来发展路径 -->
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<div class="card bg-white p-6 mb-8">
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<div class="flex items-center mb-5">
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<div class="icon-box mr-3">
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<i class="fas fa-rocket"></i>
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</div>
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<h2 class="text-xl font-bold text-gray-800">关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h2>
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</div>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-gray-800 mb-4 pb-2 border-b border-gray-200">近期催化剂（3-6个月）</h3>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="bg-red-100 text-red-600 rounded-full w-8 h-8 flex items-center justify-center flex-shrink-0 mr-3">
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1
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-medium text-gray-800">政策落地</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">2025年7月"一证一品"细则出台，<span class="font-bold text-red-600">中小厂家集中退出</span>。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="bg-orange-100 text-orange-600 rounded-full w-8 h-8 flex items-center justify-center flex-shrink-0 mr-3">
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2
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-medium text-gray-800">涨价传导</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">草甘膦（2.3万/吨→3万/吨）、氯虫苯甲酰胺（30万/吨→40万/吨）价格修复。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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||
<div class="bg-green-100 text-green-600 rounded-full w-8 h-8 flex items-center justify-center flex-shrink-0 mr-3">
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3
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-medium text-gray-800">业绩验证</h4>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">扬农化工优创基地一期投产（<span class="font-bold text-blue-600">15650吨原药+7000吨中间体</span>），Q3业绩超预期。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-gray-800 mb-4 pb-2 border-b border-gray-200">长期路径（2025-2027）</h3>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div class="bg-gray-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
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<div class="flex items-center mb-2">
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<div class="bg-blue-500 text-white rounded-full w-6 h-6 flex items-center justify-center text-xs mr-2">1</div>
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<h4 class="font-medium text-gray-800">阶段1（2025）</h4>
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</div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">政策出清+库存见底，龙头市占率提升至<span class="font-bold text-blue-600">30%+</span>（当前CR5仅20%）。</p>
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</div>
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|
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<div class="bg-gray-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
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<div class="flex items-center mb-2">
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<div class="bg-blue-500 text-white rounded-full w-6 h-6 flex items-center justify-center text-xs mr-2">2</div>
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<h4 class="font-medium text-gray-800">阶段2（2026）</h4>
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</div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">创制药放量（扬农氟螨双醚、先达吡唑喹草酯），毛利率恢复至<span class="font-bold text-green-600">25%+</span>。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-gray-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
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<div class="flex items-center mb-2">
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<div class="bg-blue-500 text-white rounded-full w-6 h-6 flex items-center justify-center text-xs mr-2">3</div>
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<h4 class="font-medium text-gray-800">阶段3（2027）</h4>
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</div>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">行业整合完成，登记证成为<span class="font-bold text-purple-600">核心资产</span>，估值体系从周期股转向"资源股"。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 关联股票数据 -->
|
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<div class="card bg-white p-6 mb-8">
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<div class="flex items-center mb-5">
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<div class="icon-box mr-3">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-chart-bar"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
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<h2 class="text-xl font-bold text-gray-800">关联股票数据</h2>
|
||
</div>
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<div class="table-responsive">
|
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<table class="table w-full">
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<thead>
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<tr class="bg-gray-50">
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<th class="text-left p-3 font-semibold text-gray-700 text-sm uppercase">股票名称</th>
|
||
<th class="text-left p-3 font-semibold text-gray-700 text-sm uppercase">关联厂家</th>
|
||
<th class="text-left p-3 font-semibold text-gray-700 text-sm uppercase">流通市值(亿)</th>
|
||
<th class="text-left p-3 font-semibold text-gray-700 text-sm uppercase">农药登记证数量</th>
|
||
<th class="text-left p-3 font-semibold text-gray-700 text-sm uppercase">肥料登记证数量</th>
|
||
<th class="text-left p-3 font-semibold text-gray-700 text-sm uppercase">关联原因</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="bg-green-100 text-green-800 rounded-full w-8 h-8 flex items-center justify-center mr-2">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-sm">美</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium">美邦股份</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3 text-sm text-gray-600">陕西美邦药业集团</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="badge-custom bg-blue-100 text-blue-800">23.8</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-green-600">465</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="text-gray-600">15</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3 text-sm text-gray-600">陕西美邦药业集团对应的A股为美邦股份，流通市值23.8亿元，农药登记证465个，肥料登记证15个</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="bg-green-100 text-green-800 rounded-full w-8 h-8 flex items-center justify-center mr-2">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-sm">美</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium">美邦股份</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3 text-sm text-gray-600">陕西汤普森生物科技</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="badge-custom bg-blue-100 text-blue-800">23.8</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-green-600">363</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="text-gray-600">6</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3 text-sm text-gray-600">陕西汤普森生物科技对应的A股为美邦股份，流通市值23.8亿元，农药登记证363个，肥料登记证6个</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="bg-blue-100 text-blue-800 rounded-full w-8 h-8 flex items-center justify-center mr-2">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-sm">润</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium">润丰股份</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3 text-sm text-gray-600">山东潍坊润丰化工</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="badge-custom bg-blue-100 text-blue-800">126.3</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-green-600">356</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="text-gray-600">-</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3 text-sm text-gray-600">山东潍坊润丰化工对应的A股为润丰股份，流通市值126.3亿元，农药登记证356个</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="bg-purple-100 text-purple-800 rounded-full w-8 h-8 flex items-center justify-center mr-2">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-sm">诺</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium">诺普信</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3 text-sm text-gray-600">东莞市瑞德丰生物科技</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="badge-custom bg-blue-100 text-blue-800">82</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-green-600">323</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="text-gray-600">-</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3 text-sm text-gray-600">东莞市瑞德丰生物科技对应的A股为诺普信，流通市值82亿元，农药登记证323个</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="bg-purple-100 text-purple-800 rounded-full w-8 h-8 flex items-center justify-center mr-2">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-sm">诺</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium">诺普信</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3 text-sm text-gray-600">深圳诺普信作物科学</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="badge-custom bg-blue-100 text-blue-800">82</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-green-600">314</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="text-gray-600">-</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3 text-sm text-gray-600">深圳诺普信作物科学对应的A股为诺普信，流通市值82亿元，农药登记证314个</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="bg-amber-100 text-amber-800 rounded-full w-8 h-8 flex items-center justify-center mr-2">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-sm">农</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium">农心科技</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3 text-sm text-gray-600">陕西上格之路生物科学</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="badge-custom bg-blue-100 text-blue-800">6.2</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-green-600">284</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="text-gray-600">21</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3 text-sm text-gray-600">陕西上格之路生物科学对应的A股为农心科技，流通市值6.2亿元，农药登记证284个，肥料登记证21个</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="bg-purple-100 text-purple-800 rounded-full w-8 h-8 flex items-center justify-center mr-2">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-sm">诺</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium">诺普信</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3 text-sm text-gray-600">陕西标正作物科学</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="badge-custom bg-blue-100 text-blue-800">82</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-green-600">280</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="text-gray-600">19</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3 text-sm text-gray-600">陕西标正作物科学对应的A股为诺普信，流通市值82亿元，农药登记证280个，肥料登记证19个</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="bg-green-100 text-green-800 rounded-full w-8 h-8 flex items-center justify-center mr-2">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-sm">美</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium">美邦股份</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3 text-sm text-gray-600">陕西亿田丰作物科技</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="badge-custom bg-blue-100 text-blue-800">23.8</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-green-600">276</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="text-gray-600">-</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3 text-sm text-gray-600">陕西亿田丰作物科技对应的A股为美邦股份，流通市值23.8亿元，农药登记证276个</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="bg-red-100 text-red-800 rounded-full w-8 h-8 flex items-center justify-center mr-2">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-sm">海</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium">海利尔</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3 text-sm text-gray-600">海利尔药业集团</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="badge-custom bg-blue-100 text-blue-800">44.7</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-green-600">251</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="text-gray-600">11</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3 text-sm text-gray-600">海利尔药业集团对应的A股为海利尔，流通市值44.7亿元，农药登记证251个，肥料登记证11个</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center">
|
||
<div class="bg-gray-100 text-gray-800 rounded-full w-8 h-8 flex items-center justify-center mr-2">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-sm">无</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<span class="font-medium text-gray-500">无</span>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3 text-sm text-gray-600">江西中迅农化</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="badge-custom bg-gray-100 text-gray-800">无</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="font-bold text-green-600">240</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3">
|
||
<span class="text-gray-600">73</span>
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td class="p-3 text-sm text-gray-600">江西中迅农化未上市，农药登记证240个，肥料登记证73个</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 产业链与核心公司深度剖析 -->
|
||
<div class="card bg-white p-6 mb-8">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center mb-5">
|
||
<div class="icon-box mr-3">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-sitemap"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<h2 class="text-xl font-bold text-gray-800">产业链与核心公司深度剖析</h2>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-8">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-gray-800 mb-4 pb-2 border-b border-gray-200">产业链图谱</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div class="space-y-4">
|
||
<div class="bg-green-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h4 class="font-medium text-green-800 mb-2 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-arrow-up mr-2"></i>上游
|
||
</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-700">中间体（扬农化工自配邻苯二胺、新安股份配套32-氯苯胺）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg-blue-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h4 class="font-medium text-blue-800 mb-2 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-minus mr-2"></i>中游
|
||
</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-700">原药（登记证壁垒）→ 制剂（渠道+品牌）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg-purple-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h4 class="font-medium text-purple-800 mb-2 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-arrow-down mr-2"></i>下游
|
||
</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-700">跨国企业（科迪华、拜耳）+ 新兴市场（巴西、东南亚）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-gray-800 mb-4 pb-2 border-b border-gray-200">核心玩家对比</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table w-full text-sm">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr class="bg-gray-50">
|
||
<th class="text-left p-2 font-semibold text-gray-700">公司</th>
|
||
<th class="text-left p-2 font-semibold text-gray-700">登记证数量</th>
|
||
<th class="text-left p-2 font-semibold text-gray-700">核心逻辑</th>
|
||
<th class="text-left p-2 font-semibold text-gray-700">风险点</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200">
|
||
<td class="p-2 font-medium">扬农化工</td>
|
||
<td class="p-2"><span class="text-green-600 font-bold">15225吨菊酯</span><br><span class="text-xs text-gray-500">（国内唯一全产业链）</span></td>
|
||
<td class="p-2 text-xs">创制药+优创基地投产，估值底部（20倍PE）</td>
|
||
<td class="p-2 text-xs">新产能爬坡不及预期</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200">
|
||
<td class="p-2 font-medium">广信股份</td>
|
||
<td class="p-2"><span class="text-green-600 font-bold">光气牌照垄断</span><br><span class="text-xs text-gray-500">（多菌灵/敌草隆）</span></td>
|
||
<td class="p-2 text-xs">现金80亿+成本优势（毛利率高15pp）</td>
|
||
<td class="p-2 text-xs">草甘膦价格波动</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200">
|
||
<td class="p-2 font-medium">先达股份</td>
|
||
<td class="p-2"><span class="text-green-600 font-bold">吡唑喹草酯</span><br><span class="text-xs text-gray-500">（2025年专利到期）</span></td>
|
||
<td class="p-2 text-xs">抗草甘膦替代品种，远期空间2亿</td>
|
||
<td class="p-2 text-xs">竞争加剧（浙江新合成6万吨）</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="p-2 font-medium">润丰股份</td>
|
||
<td class="p-2"><span class="text-green-600 font-bold">356个登记证</span><br><span class="text-xs text-gray-500">（全球布局）</span></td>
|
||
<td class="p-2 text-xs">轻资产出海，巴西渠道重塑受益</td>
|
||
<td class="p-2 text-xs">汇率波动（雷亚尔贬值）</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 验证与证伪 -->
|
||
<div class="card bg-white p-6 mb-8">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center mb-5">
|
||
<div class="icon-box mr-3">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-balance-scale"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<h2 class="text-xl font-bold text-gray-800">验证与证伪</h2>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
|
||
<div class="bg-green-50 p-5 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-green-800 mb-3 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-check-circle mr-2"></i>数据印证
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">2024年11月扬农化工出口均价环比+7%，<span class="font-bold text-green-600">印证库存见底</span>。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg-red-50 p-5 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-red-800 mb-3 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-exclamation-triangle mr-2"></i>风险信号
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700">江山股份5万吨草铵膦新产能若2025年集中释放，可能压制价格。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 潜在风险与挑战 -->
|
||
<div class="card bg-white p-6 mb-8">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center mb-5">
|
||
<div class="icon-box mr-3">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-shield-alt"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<h2 class="text-xl font-bold text-gray-800">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6">
|
||
<div class="border border-gray-200 rounded-lg p-5">
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-3 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-microscope text-red-500 mr-2"></i>技术风险
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">创制药田间抗性超预期（如氟螨双醚对红蜘蛛抗性）。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="border border-gray-200 rounded-lg p-5">
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-3 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-gavel text-orange-500 mr-2"></i>政策风险
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-600">印度低价倾销（中间体进口关税仅13%）。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="border border-gray-200 rounded-lg p-5">
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-gray-800 mb-3 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-info-circle text-blue-500 mr-2"></i>信息矛盾
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<div class="space-y-2">
|
||
<div class="flex items-start">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-arrow-up text-green-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-medium text-gray-700">研报乐观</p>
|
||
<p class="text-xs text-gray-600">国联预测2025年扬农净利润21亿（+60%）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="flex items-start">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-arrow-down text-red-500 mt-1 mr-2"></i>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<p class="text-sm font-medium text-gray-700">路演谨慎</p>
|
||
<p class="text-xs text-gray-600">中农立华张总称"行业底部盘整需1-2年"，<span class="font-bold text-red-600">存在预期差</span></p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 综合结论与投资启示 -->
|
||
<div class="card bg-gradient-to-r from-green-600 to-emerald-700 p-6 text-white">
|
||
<div class="flex items-center mb-5">
|
||
<div class="icon-box mr-3 bg-white bg-opacity-20 text-white">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-trophy"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<h2 class="text-xl font-bold">综合结论与投资启示</h2>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="space-y-6">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg mb-2">结论</h3>
|
||
<p>农药证件厂家已从"周期博弈"进入"资源稀缺"阶段，<span class="font-bold bg-white bg-opacity-20 px-2 py-1 rounded">登记证=矿权</span>。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg mb-3">投资方向</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-4">
|
||
<div class="bg-white bg-opacity-10 p-4 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h4 class="font-medium mb-2 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-star mr-2"></i>首选
|
||
</h4>
|
||
<ul class="space-y-1">
|
||
<li>扬农化工（创制药+产能释放）</li>
|
||
<li>广信股份（现金+牌照）</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg-white bg-opacity-10 p-4 rounded-lg">
|
||
<h4 class="font-medium mb-2 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-chart-line mr-2"></i>弹性标的
|
||
</h4>
|
||
<ul class="space-y-1">
|
||
<li>先达股份（吡唑喹草酯）</li>
|
||
<li>润丰股份（巴西渠道）</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg mb-3">跟踪指标</h3>
|
||
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-4">
|
||
<div class="flex items-start">
|
||
<div class="bg-white bg-opacity-20 rounded-full w-8 h-8 flex items-center justify-center flex-shrink-0 mr-3">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-file-alt"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-medium">登记证审批进度</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm opacity-80">农业农村部每月公示</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="flex items-start">
|
||
<div class="bg-white bg-opacity-20 rounded-full w-8 h-8 flex items-center justify-center flex-shrink-0 mr-3">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-boxes"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-medium">草甘膦库存天数</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm opacity-80">当前73天，目标降至50天触发涨价</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="flex items-start">
|
||
<div class="bg-white bg-opacity-20 rounded-full w-8 h-8 flex items-center justify-center flex-shrink-0 mr-3">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-industry"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-medium">中小厂家退出数量</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-sm opacity-80">2025Q3预计>200家</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@tailwindcss/browser@4"></script>
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html>
|
||
``` |