439 lines
19 KiB
HTML
439 lines
19 KiB
HTML
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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN">
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<head>
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<meta charset="utf-8" />
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1, shrink-to-fit=no">
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<title>双季戊四醇概念分析报告</title>
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<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:wght@300;400;500;600;700;800&display=swap" rel="stylesheet" />
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/tailwindcss@2.2.19/dist/tailwind.min.css" rel="stylesheet">
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@5/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<script src="https://cdn.tailwindcss.com"></script>
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<link rel="stylesheet" href="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/font-awesome/6.4.0/css/all.min.css">
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<style>
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body {
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font-family: 'Inter', sans-serif;
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, #0f172a 0%, #1e293b 100%);
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min-height: 100vh;
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}
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.card {
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background: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.05);
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backdrop-filter: blur(10px);
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border: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
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}
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.timeline-dot {
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, #3b82f6, #8b5cf6);
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}
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.price-up {
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color: #10b981;
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}
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.price-down {
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color: #ef4444;
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}
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.gradient-text {
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, #3b82f6, #8b5cf6);
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-webkit-background-clip: text;
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-webkit-text-fill-color: transparent;
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}
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.table-container {
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overflow-x: auto;
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}
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@media (max-width: 640px) {
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.table-container {
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overflow-x: scroll;
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}
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="text-gray-100 p-4 md:p-8">
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<div class="max-w-7xl mx-auto">
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<!-- 标题部分 -->
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<div class="text-center mb-10">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-5xl font-bold mb-4 gradient-text">双季戊四醇概念分析</h1>
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<p class="text-gray-300 text-lg">供给硬缺口 + 需求爆发的超级周期</p>
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</div>
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<!-- 时间轴部分 -->
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<div class="card rounded-2xl p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-clock mr-3 text-blue-400"></i>
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概念发展时间轴
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</h2>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="timeline-dot w-4 h-4 rounded-full mt-1.5 mr-4 flex-shrink-0"></div>
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<div class="flex-1">
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<div class="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2 mb-1">
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<span class="font-semibold">2024年10月</span>
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<span class="text-sm bg-gray-700 px-2 py-1 rounded">价格: 2.5万元/吨</span>
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</div>
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<p class="text-gray-300">行业库存趋近于零，湖北宜化4万吨装置因环保搬迁计划曝光</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="timeline-dot w-4 h-4 rounded-full mt-1.5 mr-4 flex-shrink-0"></div>
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<div class="flex-1">
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<div class="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2 mb-1">
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<span class="font-semibold">2025年1-2月</span>
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<span class="text-sm bg-gray-700 px-2 py-1 rounded price-up">价格: 4.5万元/吨</span>
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</div>
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<p class="text-gray-300">下游PCB油墨需求因AI算力爆发（胜宏科技等客户）激增</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="timeline-dot w-4 h-4 rounded-full mt-1.5 mr-4 flex-shrink-0"></div>
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<div class="flex-1">
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<div class="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2 mb-1">
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<span class="font-semibold">2025年3月</span>
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<span class="text-sm bg-gray-700 px-2 py-1 rounded price-up">价格: 5.5-7万元/吨</span>
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</div>
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<p class="text-gray-300">湖北宜化6月搬迁确认，中毅达被券商密集推荐（连涨11日翻倍）</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="timeline-dot w-4 h-4 rounded-full mt-1.5 mr-4 flex-shrink-0"></div>
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<div class="flex-1">
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<div class="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2 mb-1">
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<span class="font-semibold">2025年5月</span>
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<span class="text-sm bg-gray-700 px-2 py-1 rounded price-up">价格: 7.45万元/吨</span>
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<span class="text-xs text-green-400">同比+132%</span>
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</div>
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<p class="text-gray-300">中毅达公告"双季占比极少"，股价"天地板"巨震，但行业报价仍维持高位</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心观点 -->
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 mb-8">
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<div class="card rounded-2xl p-6">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-lightbulb mr-3 text-yellow-400"></i>
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核心观点摘要
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</h2>
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<div class="space-y-3">
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<div class="bg-blue-900/20 border-l-4 border-blue-400 p-4 rounded">
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<p class="font-semibold text-blue-300 mb-1">阶段判断</p>
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<p class="text-sm">双季戊四醇处于"供给硬缺口+需求爆发"驱动的超级周期</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-purple-900/20 border-l-4 border-purple-400 p-4 rounded">
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<p class="font-semibold text-purple-300 mb-1">价格涨幅</p>
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<p class="text-sm">从2024年10月2.5万→7.45万/吨（涨幅198%）</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-red-900/20 border-l-4 border-red-400 p-4 rounded">
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<p class="font-semibold text-red-300 mb-1">核心矛盾</p>
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<p class="text-sm">市场炒作的"涨价弹性"与上市公司实际业绩贡献的严重错配</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="card rounded-2xl p-6">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-chart-line mr-3 text-green-400"></i>
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核心驱动力
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</h2>
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<div class="space-y-3">
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-arrow-down text-red-400 mt-1 mr-3"></i>
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<div>
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<p class="font-semibold">供给收缩不可逆</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">湖北宜化6万吨产能（占全球25%）2025年6月搬迁，2026年Q4前无复产计划</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-arrow-up text-green-400 mt-1 mr-3"></i>
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<div>
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<p class="font-semibold">需求刚性爆发</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">PCB油墨中双季不可替代，AI服务器/汽车电子PCB需求年增20%+</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-percentage text-blue-400 mt-1 mr-3"></i>
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<div>
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<p class="font-semibold">成本占比极低</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">双季占PCB油墨成本<5%，下游对涨价容忍度极高</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 产业链分析 -->
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<div class="card rounded-2xl p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-sitemap mr-3 text-indigo-400"></i>
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产业链与核心公司分析
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</h2>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-6 mb-6">
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<div class="bg-gray-800/50 p-4 rounded-lg">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg mb-3 text-blue-300">上游</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm">
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<li class="flex items-center"><i class="fas fa-flask mr-2 text-gray-400"></i>甲醛+乙醛（湖北宜化自给）</li>
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<li class="flex items-center"><i class="fas fa-vial mr-2 text-gray-400"></i>液碱（中泰化学）</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-gray-800/50 p-4 rounded-lg">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg mb-3 text-purple-300">中游</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm">
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<li class="flex items-center"><i class="fas fa-industry mr-2 text-gray-400"></i>湖北宜化（6万吨，搬迁中）</li>
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<li class="flex items-center"><i class="fas fa-industry mr-2 text-gray-400"></i>中毅达（<1万吨，概念龙头）</li>
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<li class="flex items-center"><i class="fas fa-industry mr-2 text-gray-400"></i>金禾实业（2万吨）</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-gray-800/50 p-4 rounded-lg">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg mb-3 text-green-300">下游</h3>
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<ul class="space-y-2 text-sm">
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<li class="flex items-center"><i class="fas fa-microchip mr-2 text-gray-400"></i>PCB油墨（容大感光、广信材料）</li>
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<li class="flex items-center"><i class="fas fa-paint-brush mr-2 text-gray-400"></i>高端涂料（汽车/航空）</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="w-full text-sm">
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<thead>
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<tr class="border-b border-gray-700">
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<th class="text-left py-3 px-4">公司</th>
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<th class="text-left py-3 px-4">双季产能</th>
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<th class="text-left py-3 px-4">实际关联度</th>
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<th class="text-left py-3 px-4">风险点</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr class="border-b border-gray-800">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">湖北宜化</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">6万吨（搬迁中）</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4"><span class="bg-green-900/30 text-green-300 px-2 py-1 rounded text-xs">直接龙头</span></td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">新疆宜化未并表，A股无纯标的</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="border-b border-gray-800">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">中毅达</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">未披露（估算<1万吨）</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4"><span class="bg-yellow-900/30 text-yellow-300 px-2 py-1 rounded text-xs">概念龙头</span></td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">公告"占比极少"，业绩弹性存疑</td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">金禾实业</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">2万吨（单季为主）</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4"><span class="bg-blue-900/30 text-blue-300 px-2 py-1 rounded text-xs">弹性标的</span></td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">双季收率仅5%，利润贡献有限</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 关联股票数据表格 -->
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<div class="card rounded-2xl p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-6 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-table mr-3 text-cyan-400"></i>
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关联股票数据
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</h2>
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<div class="table-container">
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<table class="w-full text-sm">
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<thead>
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<tr class="border-b border-gray-700">
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<th class="text-left py-3 px-4">股票名称</th>
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<th class="text-left py-3 px-4">产能/项目</th>
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<th class="text-left py-3 px-4">行业地位/用途</th>
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<th class="text-left py-3 px-4">其他信息</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr class="border-b border-gray-800 hover:bg-gray-800/30">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">中钛达</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">4.3万吨</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">国内行业第二</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">-</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="border-b border-gray-800 hover:bg-gray-800/30">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">键邦股份</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">无季戊四醇系列产品及在建项目</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">-</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">-</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="border-b border-gray-800 hover:bg-gray-800/30">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">湖北宜化</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">5万吨</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">-</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">-</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="border-b border-gray-800 hover:bg-gray-800/30">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">苏盐井神</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">-</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">参股公司江苏瑞阳13.38%</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">2023年退出，无股权关联</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="border-b border-gray-800 hover:bg-gray-800/30">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">金禾实业</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">2万吨/年</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">-</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">-</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="border-b border-gray-800 hover:bg-gray-800/30">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">江天化学</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">20万吨</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">甲醇用于生产季戊四醇</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">-</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="border-b border-gray-800 hover:bg-gray-800/30">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">华尔泰</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">5万吨/年</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">生产密胺树脂产品</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">-</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="border-b border-gray-800 hover:bg-gray-800/30">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">云天化</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">26万吨/年</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">部分外售，部分用于生产聚甲醛</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">-</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="border-b border-gray-800 hover:bg-gray-800/30">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">世名科技</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">已研发</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">PCB阻焊油等领域</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">-</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="hover:bg-gray-800/30">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-semibold">金牛化工</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">20万吨/年</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">-</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">-</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 风险与结论 -->
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 mb-8">
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<div class="card rounded-2xl p-6">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-exclamation-triangle mr-3 text-red-400"></i>
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潜在风险与挑战
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</h2>
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<div class="space-y-3">
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-cog text-gray-400 mt-1 mr-3"></i>
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<div>
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<p class="font-semibold">技术风险</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">双季收率提升可能打破供给瓶颈</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-flask text-gray-400 mt-1 mr-3"></i>
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<div>
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<p class="font-semibold">商业化风险</p>
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<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">PCB油墨若转向水性/无溶剂技术，双季需求或萎缩</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<i class="fas fa-balance-scale text-gray-400 mt-1 mr-3"></i>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<p class="font-semibold">政策风险</p>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">环保政策若放松，湖北宜化搬迁延期，供给缺口消失</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="flex items-start">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-info-circle text-gray-400 mt-1 mr-3"></i>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<p class="font-semibold">信息矛盾</p>
|
||
<p class="text-sm text-gray-300">券商研报与公司公告存在差异，存在误导性推荐</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="card rounded-2xl p-6">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-chart-pie mr-3 text-green-400"></i>
|
||
投资启示
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<div class="space-y-4">
|
||
<div class="bg-gradient-to-r from-blue-900/30 to-purple-900/30 p-4 rounded-lg">
|
||
<p class="font-semibold mb-2">阶段判断</p>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">当前处于"主题炒作向基本面过渡"阶段，现货涨价已兑现，但A股缺乏纯正标的</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="space-y-3">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<p class="font-semibold text-green-300 mb-1">短期策略</p>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">回避纯概念股（中毅达），关注湖北宜化（000422）搬迁进展</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div>
|
||
<p class="font-semibold text-blue-300 mb-1">长期跟踪</p>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">跟踪卫星化学等潜在技术突破者（α-烯烃副产双季）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg-gray-800/50 p-3 rounded text-xs">
|
||
<p class="font-semibold mb-1">关键跟踪指标：</p>
|
||
<ul class="list-disc list-inside space-y-1">
|
||
<li>现货价格能否突破10万/吨</li>
|
||
<li>湖北宜化6月是否如期停产</li>
|
||
<li>PCB厂库存是否跌破7天</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 风险提示 -->
|
||
<div class="card bg-gradient-to-r from-red-900/20 to-orange-900/20 rounded-2xl p-6 border border-red-500/30">
|
||
<div class="flex items-start">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-exclamation-circle text-red-400 text-xl mt-1 mr-3"></i>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="font-bold text-lg mb-2 text-red-300">风险提示</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-sm">若中毅达等概念股无法兑现订单，板块或现"多杀多"踩踏。投资需谨慎，请结合自身风险承受能力做出决策。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<script>
|
||
// 添加一些交互效果
|
||
document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function() {
|
||
// 表格行悬停效果
|
||
const tableRows = document.querySelectorAll('tbody tr');
|
||
tableRows.forEach(row => {
|
||
row.addEventListener('mouseenter', function() {
|
||
this.style.transform = 'translateX(2px)';
|
||
this.style.transition = 'transform 0.2s ease';
|
||
});
|
||
row.addEventListener('mouseleave', function() {
|
||
this.style.transform = 'translateX(0)';
|
||
});
|
||
});
|
||
|
||
// 卡片进入动画
|
||
const cards = document.querySelectorAll('.card');
|
||
const observer = new IntersectionObserver((entries) => {
|
||
entries.forEach(entry => {
|
||
if (entry.isIntersecting) {
|
||
entry.target.style.opacity = '0';
|
||
entry.target.style.transform = 'translateY(20px)';
|
||
setTimeout(() => {
|
||
entry.target.style.transition = 'opacity 0.5s ease, transform 0.5s ease';
|
||
entry.target.style.opacity = '1';
|
||
entry.target.style.transform = 'translateY(0)';
|
||
}, 100);
|
||
observer.unobserve(entry.target);
|
||
}
|
||
});
|
||
});
|
||
|
||
cards.forEach(card => {
|
||
observer.observe(card);
|
||
});
|
||
});
|
||
</script>
|
||
</body>
|
||
</html>
|
||
``` |