676 lines
26 KiB
HTML
676 lines
26 KiB
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<body>
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<div id="particles-js"></div>
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<div class="container mx-auto px-4 py-8 max-w-6xl">
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<!-- 标题区域 -->
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<div class="text-center mb-12">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-5xl font-bold mb-4 gradient-text">四川算力</h1>
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<p class="text-lg text-slate-300 max-w-3xl mx-auto">
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2024-2027年四川省算力基础设施高质量发展行动方案分析
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</p>
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<div class="mt-4 flex justify-center space-x-2">
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<span class="badge badge-blue">政策催化</span>
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<span class="badge badge-green">技术需求爆发</span>
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<span class="badge badge-purple">区域协同</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 概念事件 -->
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<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 section-title">概念事件</h2>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 mt-1 mr-3">
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<i class="fas fa-file-contract text-blue-400"></i>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-blue-300">政策催化</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300">2024年11月21日，四川省发改委发布《四川省算力基础设施高质量发展行动方案（2024—2027年）》，明确到2027年构建"算网融合、算电协同"的全省一体化格局，算力总规模达40EFLOPS，智能算力占比≥60%，并规划15个大规模智算中心（PUE≤1.3）。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 mt-1 mr-3">
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<i class="fas fa-chart-line text-green-400"></i>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-green-300">技术需求爆发</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300">2025年4月，四川省统计局指出DeepSeek等AI技术带动算力需求激增，工业机器人、传感器产量分别同比增长20.9%、23.3%。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 mt-1 mr-3">
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<i class="fas fa-building text-purple-400"></i>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-purple-300">企业动态</h3>
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<ul class="text-slate-300 list-disc pl-5 space-y-1">
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<li><strong>弘信电子</strong>：2025年目标扩展至8-10万P算力（当前4万P），四川基地为三大核心节点之一。</li>
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<li><strong>汇纳科技</strong>：2023年9月与四川并集科技合作运营200台A100服务器，2024年因供需紧张算力租赁价格上调100%。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 mt-1 mr-3">
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<i class="fas fa-network-wired text-yellow-400"></i>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-yellow-300">区域协同</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300">成渝枢纽纳入"东数西算"工程，四川天府集群与重庆集群网络时延≤3毫秒，形成西部算力高地。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心观点摘要 -->
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<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 section-title">核心观点摘要</h2>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-blue-300 mb-2">阶段判断</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300">四川算力已从政策规划期进入"供需两旺+技术验证"的加速落地阶段，2025年或为业绩兑现元年。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-green-300 mb-2">核心驱动力</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300">政策强制指标（40EFLOPS）+AI模型迭代（推理需求占比提升至60%）+国产替代（昇腾/寒武纪生态渗透）。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-purple-300 mb-2">潜力空间</h3>
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<p class="text-slate-300">按当前租赁价15-18万元/卡/年测算，四川2027年智算中心市场规模或超500亿元（40EFLOPS≈4万P，按50%租赁率计算）。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心逻辑与市场认知分析 -->
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<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 section-title">核心逻辑与市场认知分析</h2>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl text-blue-300 mb-3">核心驱动力</h3>
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<div class="space-y-3">
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 mt-1 mr-3">
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<i class="fas fa-gavel text-blue-400"></i>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-medium text-slate-200">政策刚性</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm">四川省方案要求2025年智算规模≥25EFLOPS（当前全国仅上海规划100EFLOPS），年均复合增速需达50%以上。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 mt-1 mr-3">
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<i class="fas fa-fire text-orange-400"></i>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-medium text-slate-200">需求裂变</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm">路演显示头部客户（央企/高校）签约周期延长至3年，A100租金已超过设备采购价（年化收益率>100%），验证需求刚性。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="flex items-start">
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<div class="flex-shrink-0 mt-1 mr-3">
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<i class="fas fa-exchange-alt text-green-400"></i>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h4 class="font-medium text-slate-200">技术替代</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm">华为CloudMatrix384集群单卡效率超H100方案18%，国产方案在DeepSeek推理中验证可行性，降低对NV卡依赖。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl text-purple-300 mb-3">市场认知偏差</h3>
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<div class="space-y-3">
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<div class="bg-purple-900 bg-opacity-30 p-3 rounded-lg">
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<h4 class="font-medium text-slate-200 mb-1">预期差1</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm">市场聚焦NV链，但四川长虹、华鲲振宇等华为昇腾代工链2025年订单未充分定价（华丰科技单机价值量4%→10%+）。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-purple-900 bg-opacity-30 p-3 rounded-lg">
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<h4 class="font-medium text-slate-200 mb-1">预期差2</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm">政府主导的"算力券"补贴（如深圳发放"训力券"）可能向四川倾斜，润泽科技等IDC厂商受益程度被低估。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 关键催化剂与未来发展路径 -->
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<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 section-title">关键催化剂与未来发展路径</h2>
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<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl text-blue-300 mb-3">近期催化剂（3-6个月）</h3>
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<div class="space-y-4 relative pl-6">
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<div class="relative">
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<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
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<div class="timeline-line"></div>
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<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-3 rounded-lg">
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<h4 class="font-medium text-slate-200">2025Q2</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm">四川首批智算中心（如成都智算中心二期）投运，昇腾910B集群规模验证。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="relative">
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<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
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<div class="timeline-line"></div>
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<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-3 rounded-lg">
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<h4 class="font-medium text-slate-200">2025Q3</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm">国家算力调度平台（上海）启动，四川节点接入率成为关键指标。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="relative">
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<div class="timeline-dot"></div>
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<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-3 rounded-lg">
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<h4 class="font-medium text-slate-200">2025Q4</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm">英伟达H20供货受限，国产卡渗透率或从30%跃升至50%（路演提及华为已获4000片H800订单）。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl text-green-300 mb-3">长期路径</h3>
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<div class="space-y-4">
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<div class="bg-green-900 bg-opacity-20 p-4 rounded-lg border-l-4 border-green-500">
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<h4 class="font-medium text-slate-200 mb-1">2025-2026</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm">政策驱动基建（国资主导）</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-blue-900 bg-opacity-20 p-4 rounded-lg border-l-4 border-blue-500">
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<h4 class="font-medium text-slate-200 mb-1">2027-2028</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm">商业化运营（租赁模式成熟）</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-purple-900 bg-opacity-20 p-4 rounded-lg border-l-4 border-purple-500">
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<h4 class="font-medium text-slate-200 mb-1">2029+</h4>
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<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm">技术迭代（CPO/液冷降PUE至1.1）</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 产业链与核心公司深度剖析 -->
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<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 section-title">产业链与核心公司深度剖析</h2>
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<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl text-blue-300 mb-3">产业链图谱</h3>
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<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-4 rounded-lg mb-6">
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<div class="flex flex-wrap justify-center gap-4">
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<div class="bg-blue-900 bg-opacity-30 p-3 rounded-lg text-center min-w-[120px]">
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<div class="font-medium text-blue-300">芯片层</div>
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<div class="text-slate-400 text-sm mt-1">昇腾910B/寒武纪MLU590</div>
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</div>
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<div class="text-2xl text-slate-500 self-center">→</div>
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<div class="bg-purple-900 bg-opacity-30 p-3 rounded-lg text-center min-w-[120px]">
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<div class="font-medium text-purple-300">设备层</div>
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<div class="text-slate-400 text-sm mt-1">服务器/制冷</div>
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</div>
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<div class="text-2xl text-slate-500 self-center">→</div>
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<div class="bg-green-900 bg-opacity-30 p-3 rounded-lg text-center min-w-[120px]">
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<div class="font-medium text-green-300">运营层</div>
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<div class="text-slate-400 text-sm mt-1">租赁/调度</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="mt-4 grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-3 text-sm">
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<div class="text-center">
|
||
<div class="text-blue-300 font-medium">华为链</div>
|
||
<div class="text-slate-400">四川长虹/华鲲振宇</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="text-center">
|
||
<div class="text-purple-300 font-medium">设备商</div>
|
||
<div class="text-slate-400">浪潮信息/工业富联/依米康</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="text-center">
|
||
<div class="text-green-300 font-medium">运营商</div>
|
||
<div class="text-slate-400">汇纳科技/润泽科技/中国移动</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl text-green-300 mb-3">核心玩家对比</h3>
|
||
<div class="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>公司</th>
|
||
<th>角色</th>
|
||
<th>验证数据</th>
|
||
<th>风险点</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="font-medium">四川长虹</td>
|
||
<td>华为昇腾代工龙头</td>
|
||
<td>子公司华鲲振宇2024年订单26亿元</td>
|
||
<td>毛利率仅3-4%（代工模式）</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="font-medium">汇纳科技</td>
|
||
<td>A100租赁稀缺标的</td>
|
||
<td>200台A100已100%出租，年租金超采购价</td>
|
||
<td>芯片禁售导致扩张受限</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="font-medium">依米康</td>
|
||
<td>数据中心制冷设备商</td>
|
||
<td>四川数据中心PUE≤1.3强制标准受益</td>
|
||
<td>技术替代（液冷方案竞争）</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="font-medium">润泽科技</td>
|
||
<td>IDC运营商绑定阿里</td>
|
||
<td>账面现金20亿+授信10亿支撑扩张</td>
|
||
<td>客户集中度风险（阿里依赖）</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 潜在风险与挑战 -->
|
||
<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 section-title">潜在风险与挑战</h2>
|
||
<div class="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-4">
|
||
<div class="bg-red-900 bg-opacity-20 p-4 rounded-lg border-l-4 border-red-500">
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-red-300 mb-2">技术风险</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-300">国产卡CUDA生态兼容性不足（路演提及需"堆人力"适配代码）。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg-orange-900 bg-opacity-20 p-4 rounded-lg border-l-4 border-orange-500">
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-orange-300 mb-2">商业化风险</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-300">租赁价格下行（2025年H800产能释放后或降至10万元/卡/年）。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg-yellow-900 bg-opacity-20 p-4 rounded-lg border-l-4 border-yellow-500">
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-yellow-300 mb-2">政策风险</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-300">能耗指标收紧（四川2025年新建数据中心需配套绿电比例≥30%）。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg-purple-900 bg-opacity-20 p-4 rounded-lg border-l-4 border-purple-500">
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-lg text-purple-300 mb-2">信息矛盾</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-300">新闻称"四川算力需求激增"，但路演显示部分企业因缺卡延迟交付（如汇纳科技2024年新增1万P目标未达预期）。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 综合结论与投资启示 -->
|
||
<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 section-title">综合结论与投资启示</h2>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg-gradient-to-r from-blue-900 to-purple-900 bg-opacity-30 p-5 rounded-lg mb-6">
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl text-blue-300 mb-2">阶段判断</h3>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-300">主题炒作向基本面过渡——2025年订单/收入开始兑现，但估值仍依赖政策预期。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl text-green-300 mb-3">高价值方向</h3>
|
||
<div class="space-y-3 mb-6">
|
||
<div class="flex items-start">
|
||
<div class="flex-shrink-0 mt-1 mr-3 text-green-400">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-check-circle"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-medium text-slate-200">华为昇腾代工链</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm">四川长虹（弹性最大）+ 华丰科技（量价逻辑清晰）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="flex items-start">
|
||
<div class="flex-shrink-0 mt-1 mr-3 text-green-400">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-check-circle"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-medium text-slate-200">制冷设备</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm">依米康（PUE政策强制受益者）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="flex items-start">
|
||
<div class="flex-shrink-0 mt-1 mr-3 text-green-400">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-check-circle"></i>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h4 class="font-medium text-slate-200">租赁运营</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-slate-400 text-sm">汇纳科技（A100稀缺性溢价，但需跟踪芯片供应）</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<h3 class="font-semibold text-xl text-purple-300 mb-3">关键跟踪指标</h3>
|
||
<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-3">
|
||
<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-3 rounded-lg text-center">
|
||
<div class="text-purple-300 font-medium mb-1">智算中心投运进度</div>
|
||
<div class="text-slate-400 text-sm">四川2025年目标15个</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-3 rounded-lg text-center">
|
||
<div class="text-purple-300 font-medium mb-1">国产卡集群性能</div>
|
||
<div class="text-slate-400 text-sm">昇腾910B vs H100效率</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div class="bg-slate-800 bg-opacity-50 p-3 rounded-lg text-center">
|
||
<div class="text-purple-300 font-medium mb-1">租赁价格拐点</div>
|
||
<div class="text-slate-400 text-sm">H800是否跌破12万元/卡/年</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 关联股票数据表格 -->
|
||
<div class="card rounded-xl p-6 mb-8">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 section-title">关联股票数据</h2>
|
||
<div class="table-responsive">
|
||
<table class="table w-full">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<th>股票名称</th>
|
||
<th>项目</th>
|
||
<th>产业链</th>
|
||
<th>分类</th>
|
||
<th>估值</th>
|
||
<th>子公司/客户</th>
|
||
<th>产品</th>
|
||
<th>投资理由</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="font-medium">依米康</td>
|
||
<td>数字基础设施全生命周期绿色解决方案</td>
|
||
<td>精密环境节能热管理技术</td>
|
||
<td>数据中心关键制冷设备供应商</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>简介中提到其为数据中心和精密环境提供关键制冷设备，专注绿色解决方案和节能热管理技术</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="font-medium">广安爱众</td>
|
||
<td>丝绸云谷算力租赁</td>
|
||
<td>国资百亿级算力资产注入预期</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>300亿估值</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>简介提到青海亿众数字能源科技投资丝绸云谷，其算力租赁收入及估值达300亿</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="font-medium">四川长虹</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>华为算力产业链合作伙伴</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>长虹佳华、华鲲振宇</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>子公司深度参与华为算力产业链，华鲲振宇为华为鲲鹏/昇腾计算产品合作伙伴</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="font-medium">高新发展</td>
|
||
<td>华鲲振宇股权持有</td>
|
||
<td>电子集团间接持股55%</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>四川高新投资集团（高投集团）</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>通过高投集团间接持有华鲲振宇55%股权，深度绑定算力产业链</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="font-medium">动力源</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>数据中心电源供应商</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>华为（H）</td>
|
||
<td>数据通信/数据中心交换机模块电源、应急电源</td>
|
||
<td>为华为的数据通信和数据中心业务提供电源产品，直接参与算力基础设施供应链</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr>
|
||
<td class="font-medium">星环科技</td>
|
||
<td>智能计算产品合作</td>
|
||
<td>存储深度适配</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>华为鲲鹏、昇腾AI计算</td>
|
||
<td>-</td>
|
||
<td>与华为在智能计算产品展开合作，存储产品与华为技术深度适配</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- Scripts -->
|
||
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/tsparticles@3/tsparticles.bundle.min.js"></script>
|
||
<script>
|
||
// 初始化粒子背景
|
||
tsParticles.load("particles-js", {
|
||
particles: {
|
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|
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value: 80,
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|
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value_area: 800
|
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}
|
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},
|
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|
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value: "#3b82f6"
|
||
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|
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|
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type: "circle"
|
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},
|
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opacity: {
|
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value: 0.5,
|
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random: false
|
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},
|
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|
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value: 3,
|
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random: true
|
||
},
|
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line_linked: {
|
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enable: true,
|
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|
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color: "#3b82f6",
|
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opacity: 0.4,
|
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},
|
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|
||
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|
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speed: 2,
|
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|
||
random: false,
|
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straight: false,
|
||
out_mode: "out",
|
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bounce: false
|
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|
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|
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enable: true,
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mode: "push"
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},
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resize: true
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},
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grab: {
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|
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</body>
|
||
</html>
|
||
``` |