477 lines
22 KiB
HTML
477 lines
22 KiB
HTML
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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<html lang="zh-CN">
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<head>
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<meta charset="utf-8" />
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1, shrink-to-fit=no">
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<title>马面裙概念分析报告</title>
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<script src="https://kit.fontawesome.com/1d2b6c4f81.js" crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
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<!-- Tailwind CSS -->
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/tailwindcss@2.2.19/dist/tailwind.min.css" rel="stylesheet">
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<!-- DaisyUI -->
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<link href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/daisyui@5/dist/full.min.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" />
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<style>
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body {
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font-family: 'Noto Sans SC', sans-serif;
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, #f5f7fa 0%, #e4e8f0 100%);
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background: linear-gradient(90deg, #e91e63, #9c27b0);
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, #ffffff 0%, #f8f9fa 100%);
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.table-container {
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, #fff8e1 0%, #ffe0b2 100%);
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border-left: 4px solid #ff9800;
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}
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.insight-card {
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transition: transform 0.3s ease, box-shadow 0.3s ease;
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.insight-card:hover {
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transform: translateY(-5px);
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box-shadow: 0 10px 20px rgba(0,0,0,0.1);
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@media (max-width: 768px) {
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.table-container {
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overflow-x: auto;
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}
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</style>
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</head>
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<body class="bg-gray-50">
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<div id="particles-js" class="fixed inset-0 z-0"></div>
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<div class="relative z-10 container mx-auto px-4 py-8 max-w-7xl">
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<!-- 标题部分 -->
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<div class="text-center mb-10">
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<h1 class="text-4xl md:text-5xl font-bold mb-4 gradient-text">马面裙概念分析报告</h1>
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<div class="w-24 h-1 bg-gradient-to-r from-pink-500 to-purple-600 mx-auto mb-6"></div>
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<p class="text-gray-600 max-w-3xl mx-auto">国潮文化复兴下的现象级消费热点，从"文化符号"到"消费品类"的产业升级路径</p>
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</div>
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<!-- 概念事件部分 -->
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<div class="card bg-white shadow-lg rounded-xl mb-8 insight-card">
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<div class="p-6">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-pink-600 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-calendar-alt mr-3"></i>概念事件
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</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-4">
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<div class="highlight-box p-4 rounded-lg">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg mb-2 text-orange-800">背景</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-700">马面裙作为汉服核心单品，2023年起因"国潮"文化复兴、短视频平台（抖音/小红书）种草、明星/网红穿搭带动，成为现象级消费热点。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-blue-50 p-4 rounded-lg border-l-4 border-blue-500">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg mb-2 text-blue-800">催化事件</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 text-gray-700 space-y-2">
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<li><strong>2023年双11</strong>：淘宝卖出<strong>73万条</strong>马面裙，登顶汉服品类销量榜首。</li>
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<li><strong>2024年1月</strong>：京东汉服品类成交额同比增<strong>300%</strong>，马面裙为最热单品。</li>
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<li><strong>2024年3月</strong>：抖音马面裙话题播放量破<strong>200亿次</strong>，订单量同比增<strong>841%</strong>。</li>
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<li><strong>2024年4月</strong>：粘胶长丝价格因马面裙需求暴涨至<strong>4.35万元/吨</strong>（年初至今+1000元/吨）。</li>
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<li><strong>2025年</strong>：马面裙从"节日穿搭"向"日常通勤"渗透，改良款成为新趋势。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心观点摘要 -->
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<div class="card bg-gradient-to-r from-purple-50 to-pink-50 shadow-lg rounded-xl mb-8 insight-card">
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<div class="p-6">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-purple-700 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-lightbulb mr-3"></i>核心观点摘要
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</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div class="bg-white p-5 rounded-lg shadow">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg mb-3 text-purple-700">阶段判断</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-700">马面裙已从"主题炒作"进入"基本面驱动"阶段，需求端由文化符号升级为日常消费，供给端粘胶长丝产能刚性约束形成量价齐升。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-white p-5 rounded-lg shadow">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg mb-3 text-purple-700">核心驱动力</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-700">国潮文化渗透+短视频裂变传播+粘胶长丝供给瓶颈，三者共振推动产业链利润向中上游（化纤龙头）集中。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 核心逻辑与市场认知分析 -->
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<div class="card bg-white shadow-lg rounded-xl mb-8 insight-card">
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<div class="p-6">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-indigo-600 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-chart-line mr-3"></i>核心逻辑与市场认知分析
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</h2>
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<div class="mb-6">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg mb-3 text-indigo-700">核心驱动力</h3>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-4">
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<div class="bg-indigo-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
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<h4 class="font-bold mb-2 text-indigo-800">需求端</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 text-gray-700 space-y-1">
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<li><strong>文化破圈</strong>：从汉服爱好者向大众扩散，抖音播放量<strong>200亿次</strong>，小红书笔记<strong>112万篇</strong>。</li>
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<li><strong>场景扩容</strong>：从旅游拍照（47.8%）向通勤/逛街（30%）渗透。</li>
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<li><strong>消费频次</strong>：每季度购买1-2次用户占47.8%，复购率提升。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-green-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
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<h4 class="font-bold mb-2 text-green-800">供给端</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 text-gray-700 space-y-1">
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<li><strong>政策限制</strong>：粘胶长丝行业严禁新建产能，全球产能仅<strong>23万吨</strong>（中国占85%）。</li>
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<li><strong>库存低位</strong>：行业库存仅<strong>40天</strong>（历史低位），新乡化纤/吉林化纤产销率<strong>100%</strong>。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-4">
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<div class="bg-yellow-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
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<h4 class="font-bold mb-2 text-yellow-800">市场热度与情绪</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 text-gray-700 space-y-1">
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<li><strong>研报密集度</strong>：2024年4-6月，7家券商发布粘胶长丝深度报告。</li>
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<li><strong>情绪分歧</strong>：部分投资者担忧"汉服热退潮"，但2024年秋冬款预售数据显示订单仍同比增<strong>200%+</strong>。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-red-50 p-4 rounded-lg">
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<h4 class="font-bold mb-2 text-red-800">预期差</h4>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 text-gray-700 space-y-1">
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<li><strong>市场认知</strong>：多数研报将马面裙视为"短期爆款"，忽略其<strong>面料升级逻辑</strong>。</li>
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<li><strong>忽略点</strong>：印度反倾销税未影响出口，因中国产能占全球<strong>80%+</strong>，议价权极强。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 关键催化剂与未来发展路径 -->
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<div class="card bg-gradient-to-r from-blue-50 to-indigo-50 shadow-lg rounded-xl mb-8 insight-card">
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<div class="p-6">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-blue-700 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-rocket mr-3"></i>关键催化剂与未来发展路径
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</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div class="bg-white p-5 rounded-lg shadow">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg mb-3 text-blue-700">近期催化剂（3-6个月）</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 text-gray-700 space-y-2">
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<li><strong>金九银十旺季</strong>：2024年9-10月汉服秋冬款集中上市，粘胶长丝价格或再涨<strong>5-10%</strong>。</li>
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<li><strong>新疆产能释放</strong>：新乡化纤新疆1万吨产线2024年12月满产，缓解供给缺口。</li>
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<li><strong>政策催化</strong>：2025年"汉服文化节"等官方活动或进一步推高需求。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-white p-5 rounded-lg shadow">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg mb-3 text-blue-700">长期路径</h3>
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<ul class="list-disc pl-5 text-gray-700 space-y-2">
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<li><strong>2025-2027年</strong>：马面裙市场规模从<strong>23.5亿元</strong>增至<strong>50亿元</strong>（CAGR 20%+）。</li>
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<li><strong>技术升级</strong>：吉林化纤5万吨人造丝项目采用物理法工艺，成本降<strong>15%</strong>。</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 产业链与核心公司深度剖析 -->
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<div class="card bg-white shadow-lg rounded-xl mb-8 insight-card">
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<div class="p-6">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-teal-600 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-sitemap mr-3"></i>产业链与核心公司深度剖析
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</h2>
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<div class="mb-6">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg mb-3 text-teal-700">产业链图谱</h3>
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<div class="bg-teal-50 p-4 rounded-lg flex flex-wrap justify-center items-center">
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<div class="bg-white px-4 py-2 rounded-lg shadow mx-2 my-2">上游（棉浆/木浆）</div>
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<i class="fas fa-arrow-right text-teal-600 mx-2"></i>
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<div class="bg-white px-4 py-2 rounded-lg shadow mx-2 my-2">中游（粘胶长丝：新乡化纤/吉林化纤）</div>
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<i class="fas fa-arrow-right text-teal-600 mx-2"></i>
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<div class="bg-white px-4 py-2 rounded-lg shadow mx-2 my-2">下游（马面裙品牌：织造司/十三余/重回汉唐）</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg mb-3 text-teal-700">核心玩家对比</h3>
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<div class="overflow-x-auto">
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<table class="min-w-full bg-white border border-gray-200 rounded-lg">
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<thead>
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<tr class="bg-teal-600 text-white">
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<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">公司</th>
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<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">产能</th>
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<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">市值/产能比</th>
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<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">逻辑纯度</th>
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<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">风险点</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">新乡化纤</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">9万吨</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-bold text-green-600">8.2</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">最高</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">氨纶业务拖累（毛利率2%）</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">吉林化纤</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">8万吨</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-bold text-green-600">11.8</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">高</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">碳纤维业务亏损（2024H1亏4000万）</td>
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</tr>
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<tr class="hover:bg-gray-50">
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<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">锦泓集团</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">-</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">-</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">下游品牌</td>
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<td class="py-3 px-4">依赖代工，库存风险高</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="mt-6 grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-4">
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<div class="bg-green-50 p-4 rounded-lg border-l-4 border-green-500">
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<h4 class="font-bold mb-2 text-green-800">验证</h4>
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<p class="text-gray-700">2024年Q2新乡化纤粘胶长丝毛利率<strong>19.8%</strong>（同比+5pp），印证量价逻辑。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-red-50 p-4 rounded-lg border-l-4 border-red-500">
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<h4 class="font-bold mb-2 text-red-800">证伪</h4>
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<p class="text-gray-700">*ST美谷1.6万吨产能因资金问题开工率仅<strong>50%</strong>，无法兑现"供给弹性"预期。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 潜在风险与挑战 -->
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<div class="card bg-gradient-to-r from-red-50 to-orange-50 shadow-lg rounded-xl mb-8 insight-card">
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<div class="p-6">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-red-600 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-exclamation-triangle mr-3"></i>潜在风险与挑战
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</h2>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-4">
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<div class="bg-white p-4 rounded-lg shadow">
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<h3 class="font-bold mb-2 text-red-700">技术风险</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-700">粘胶长丝环保标准趋严（水耗≤230吨/吨），小产能或被迫退出。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-white p-4 rounded-lg shadow">
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<h3 class="font-bold mb-2 text-red-700">商业化风险</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-700">马面裙退货率高达<strong>15%</strong>（因网图与实物色差），品牌方或转向涤纶混纺降本。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-white p-4 rounded-lg shadow">
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<h3 class="font-bold mb-2 text-red-700">政策风险</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-700">若印度反倾销税执行力度超预期（当前税率20.87%），出口占比<strong>50%+</strong>的粘胶长丝企业或承压。</p>
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</div>
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<div class="bg-white p-4 rounded-lg shadow">
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<h3 class="font-bold mb-2 text-red-700">信息矛盾</h3>
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<p class="text-gray-700">部分研报称"马面裙需求1-2万吨"，但头部品牌反馈实际消耗粘胶长丝仅<strong>0.8万吨</strong>（因30-40%混纺比例）。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<!-- 综合结论与投资启示 -->
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<div class="card bg-gradient-to-r from-green-50 to-teal-50 shadow-lg rounded-xl mb-8 insight-card">
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<div class="p-6">
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<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-green-700 flex items-center">
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<i class="fas fa-check-circle mr-3"></i>综合结论与投资启示
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</h2>
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<div class="mb-6">
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg mb-3 text-green-800">结论</h3>
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<div class="bg-white p-4 rounded-lg shadow">
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<p class="text-gray-700">马面裙已从"文化符号"升级为"消费品类"，粘胶长丝供给刚性+需求持续渗透构成<strong>2-3年高景气周期</strong>，当前处于基本面加速阶段。</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<div class="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
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<div>
|
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<h3 class="font-bold text-lg mb-3 text-green-800">投资方向</h3>
|
||
<div class="space-y-3">
|
||
<div class="bg-white p-4 rounded-lg shadow">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold mb-1 text-green-700">上游</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700"><strong>新乡化纤</strong>（产能扩张+成本优势，2025年新疆1万吨投产）。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div class="bg-white p-4 rounded-lg shadow">
|
||
<h4 class="font-bold mb-1 text-green-700">下游</h4>
|
||
<p class="text-gray-700"><strong>织造司</strong>（抖音马面裙TOP1品牌，2024年销售额破<strong>3亿元</strong>）。</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 class="font-bold text-lg mb-3 text-green-800">跟踪指标</h3>
|
||
<div class="bg-white p-4 rounded-lg shadow">
|
||
<ol class="list-decimal pl-5 text-gray-700 space-y-2">
|
||
<li><strong>粘胶长丝价格</strong>（当前4.4万元/吨，突破4.8万元/吨将触发板块行情）。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>提花机新增数量</strong>（2024年新增3000-4000台，对应粘胶长丝需求<strong>1万吨+</strong>）。</li>
|
||
<li><strong>品牌库存周转</strong>：织造司/十三余库存天数是否低于<strong>30天</strong>（验证需求持续性）。</li>
|
||
</ol>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<!-- 关联股票数据表格 -->
|
||
<div class="card bg-white shadow-lg rounded-xl mb-8 insight-card">
|
||
<div class="p-6">
|
||
<h2 class="text-2xl font-bold mb-4 text-indigo-600 flex items-center">
|
||
<i class="fas fa-table mr-3"></i>关联股票数据
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<div class="table-container">
|
||
<table class="min-w-full bg-white border border-gray-200 rounded-lg">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr class="bg-indigo-600 text-white">
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">股票名称</th>
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">行业</th>
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">项目</th>
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">分类</th>
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">产业链</th>
|
||
<th class="py-3 px-4 text-left">投资逻辑</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">马面裙(240410)</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">服饰</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">汉服品类</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">线上市场</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">京东成交额</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">2023年3月至2024年2月线上市场规模达23.5亿元，同比增长503.1%，1月以来京东成交额同比增长超300%</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">新乡化纤</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">粘胶长丝</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">粘胶长丝生产</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">原材料供应</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">纺织原材料</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">粘胶长丝产能8万吨/年，市值/产能比8.177，受益于马面裙热销带动需求</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">吉林化纤</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">粘胶长丝</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">粘胶长丝生产</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">原材料供应</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">纺织原材料</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">粘胶长丝产能8万吨/年，市值/产能比11.83，受益于马面裙热销带动需求</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="border-b border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">*ST美谷</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">粘胶长丝</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">粘胶长丝生产</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">原材料供应</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">纺织原材料</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">粘胶长丝产能1.6万吨/年，市值/产能比11.78，受益于马面裙热销带动需求</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
<tr class="hover:bg-gray-50">
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4 font-medium">锦泓集团</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">服饰</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">马面裙生产</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">服装制造</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">服装销售</td>
|
||
<td class="py-3 px-4">旗下南京云锦研究所生产的马面裙2023年已量产出市</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/tsparticles@3/tsparticles.bundle.min.js"></script>
|
||
<script>
|
||
// 初始化粒子背景
|
||
tsParticles.load("particles-js", {
|
||
particles: {
|
||
number: {
|
||
value: 30,
|
||
density: {
|
||
enable: true,
|
||
value_area: 800
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
color: {
|
||
value: ["#e91e63", "#9c27b0", "#3f51b5", "#2196f3"]
|
||
},
|
||
shape: {
|
||
type: "circle",
|
||
stroke: {
|
||
width: 0,
|
||
color: "#000000"
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
opacity: {
|
||
value: 0.5,
|
||
random: true,
|
||
anim: {
|
||
enable: true,
|
||
speed: 1,
|
||
opacity_min: 0.1,
|
||
sync: false
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
size: {
|
||
value: 3,
|
||
random: true,
|
||
anim: {
|
||
enable: true,
|
||
speed: 2,
|
||
size_min: 0.1,
|
||
sync: false
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
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line_linked: {
|
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enable: true,
|
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distance: 150,
|
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color: "#9c27b0",
|
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opacity: 0.2,
|
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width: 1
|
||
},
|
||
move: {
|
||
enable: true,
|
||
speed: 1,
|
||
direction: "none",
|
||
random: true,
|
||
straight: false,
|
||
out_mode: "out",
|
||
bounce: false,
|
||
attract: {
|
||
enable: false,
|
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rotateX: 600,
|
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rotateY: 1200
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
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interactivity: {
|
||
detect_on: "canvas",
|
||
events: {
|
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onhover: {
|
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enable: true,
|
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mode: "grab"
|
||
},
|
||
onclick: {
|
||
enable: true,
|
||
mode: "push"
|
||
},
|
||
resize: true
|
||
},
|
||
modes: {
|
||
grab: {
|
||
distance: 140,
|
||
line_linked: {
|
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opacity: 0.5
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
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push: {
|
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particles_nb: 4
|
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}
|
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}
|
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},
|
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retina_detect: true
|
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});
|
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</script>
|
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</body>
|
||
</html>
|
||
``` |